The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

This. 

 

People are mad about the Harris picture of him smiling during the game but when was the picture taken because I was smiling when Sam was bringing us back. Its great to know that we have a QB who is never out of it. He leads the league in 4th quarter comebacks. And almost had another GWD. That was an exciting 3rd and early 4th quarter as we took over the game. 

 

Sam is proving to be the man and is getting this team out of trouble. Now, if Chase can develop into what we wanted on defense we could have a team. 

 

I am not worried about Chase as to the defense.  Right now we give up the most big plays in the NFL -- that secondary has sucked, it needs to get it together.  LBs, too.

 

The D line has been dissappointing in that they aren't game wreckers but I've come to accept that their best moments are going to be against bad QBs and really bad O lines -- they sort of feast off of bad offenses. 

Edited October 11, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Thinking Skins]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am not worried about Chase as to the defense.  Right now we give up the most big plays in the NFL -- that secondary has sucked, it needs to get it together.  LBs, too.

 

The D line has been dissappointing in that they aren't game wreckers but I've come to accept that their best moments are going to be against bad QBs and really bad O lines -- they sort of feast off of bad offenses. 

Looking at this with a glass half full mentality, 

 

it was against Buffalo with a good performance

Philly where Hurts beat us with his arm which we dared him to making some really accurate throws. 

Fields beat us with his arm which we dared him to, making some really accurate throws, 

 

Everybody's not a league MVP talent or top ten talent we're going against. 

So I'm looking at our schedule and its Ridder, D. Jones, M. Jones, G. Smith, D Jones, Prescott, Stafford, Wilson, and Prescott. 

And even our next game against Hurts is winnable because we took them to the wire. 

 

Then there's games against Tua and  Purdy who I think outclass us. 

 

The question is will Mac Jones or Daniel Jones or even Ridder see their poetential before seeing us. Stafford is a shell of his former self and not playing like the first overall pick but he could come into that body when he sees us. 

 

Thing is we went against a set that I don't think we will face again the rest of the year. 

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Looking at this with a glass half full mentality, 

 

it was against Buffalo with a good performance

Philly where Hurts beat us with his arm which we dared him to making some really accurate throws. 

Fields beat us with his arm which we dared him to, making some really accurate throws, 

 

Everybody's not a league MVP talent or top ten talent we're going against. 

So I'm looking at our schedule and its Ridder, D. Jones, M. Jones, G. Smith, D Jones, Prescott, Stafford, Wilson, and Prescott. 

And even our next game against Hurts is winnable because we took them to the wire. 

 

Then there's games against Tua and  Purdy who I think outclass us. 

 

The question is will Mac Jones or Daniel Jones or even Ridder see their poetential before seeing us. Stafford is a shell of his former self and not playing like the first overall pick but he could come into that body when he sees us. 

 

Thing is we went against a set that I don't think we will face again the rest of the year. 

 

Russell Wilson got us with a number of deep shots.    Hurts was struggiling some up to that game.  Fields has been inconsistent leading up to that. 

 

We shouldn't be dead last in giving up big plays.  They haven't been just bad, they've been the worst in the league.  it's not like they went up against Mahomes.

 

Daniel Jones is like Joe Montana versus this defense typically.  Unlike this team the Giants have injuries as part of their excuse for their O line woes and still are making moves to fix it.  Watch by the time we play them Andrew Thomas, JMS will be back.  Pugh who they talked out of retirement settles in as guard and who knows they might even have L. Collins on that team by them.  And Barkley who kills this team might be back by then.  I don't think the Giants have much of a shot this season but they find a way to own this team regardless. 

Edited October 11, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Thinking Skins]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Russell Wilson got us with a number of deep shots.    Hurts was struggiling some up to that game.  Fields has been inconsistent leading up to that. 

 

We shouldn't be dead last in giving up big plays.  They haven't been bad, they've  been the worst in the league.  it's not like they went up against Mahomes.

 

Daniel Jones is like Joe Montana versus this defense typically.  Unlike this team they have injuries as part of their excuse for their O line woes and still are making moves to fix it.  Watch by the time we play them Andrew Thomas, JMS will be back.  Pugh who they talked out of retirement settles in as guard and who knows they might even have L. Collins on that team by them.  And Barkley who kills this team might be back by then.  I don't think the Giants have much of a shot this season but they find a way to own this team regardless. 

What was going on coming into the game doesn't matter. What matters is that they have the mental ability to do it. So they can complete the puzzle. 

 

The other QBs I mentioned don't have that ability. Other than DJ like you mention against us. I can't explain that. But hopefully Chase can help. 

 

I'm also hoping that Howell is the best QB each of these days and that going toe to toe with these guys. 

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

What was going on coming into the game doesn't matter. What matters is that they have the mental ability to do it. So they can complete the puzzle. 

 

The other QBs I mentioned don't have that ability. Other than DJ like you mention against us. I can't explain that. But hopefully Chase can help. 

 

I'm also hoping that Howell is the best QB each of these days and that going toe to toe with these guys. 

 

Dak has been up and down but I think he's capable of replicating a Russell Wilson performance.  We got him twice.

 

We got Daniel Jones twice -- and while we can goof on his when he plays other teams, we can't really goof on him when he plays us.

 

Purdy as you mentioned.  Tua.   Hurts again.

 

Zach Wilson has mostly struggled but he can fling it deep.   Mac and Ridder agree have struggled and neither are that good throwing deep typically. 

[Thinking Skins]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Dak has been up and down but I think he's capable of replicating a Russell Wilson performance.  We got him twice.

 

We got Daniel Jones twice -- and while we can goof on his when he plays other teams, we can't really goof on him when he plays us.

 

Purdy as you mentioned.  Tua.   Hurts again.

 

Zach Wilson has mostly struggled but he can fling it deep.   Mac and Ridder agree have struggled and neither are that good throwing deep typically. 

Like I said though, and the thing about Harris smiling that didn't frustrate me, is that I know Howell can keep us in it. Even the bears game wasn't a blowout. It was 30 20, supposed to be 30 23 if Slye makes that FG with a chance for an onsides kick and GWD. 

 

That's what I can see in all these games against the QBs I say are on Howell's level. Not saying we're going 11 win. But we should be in 11 games. 

[samy316]

4 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

What was going on coming into the game doesn't matter. What matters is that they have the mental ability to do it. So they can complete the puzzle. 

 

The other QBs I mentioned don't have that ability. Other than DJ like you mention against us. I can't explain that. But hopefully Chase can help. 

 

I'm also hoping that Howell is the best QB each of these days and that going toe to toe with these guys. 

There’s no reason to have faith in, or expect the defense to hold any QB they face to respectable numbers going forward.  Ridder just had his best day as a pro this past Sunday, going up against Houston, and I think that he will duplicate or exceed that performance against us this coming Sunday.  It’s almost comical how Drake London and Kyle Pitts have been ignored in the Atlanta offense so far this year, but I bet you both will destroy this defense on Sunday, and have THEIR best days as pros too.  This defense can’t stop anything or anybody.  We know what Daniel Jones does to us, so I’m expecting a loss there too.  It doesn’t really matter what Howell and the offense can do anymore, when you’re asking your offense to score 30+ or more now every game, just to keep us in games.  Unless you’re the Chiefs or the Dolphins, it’s damn near impossible.

 

We’re not going to be favored in any remaining games the rest of the season, and I fear that it will get a whole lot worse.  Right now, there’s no team left on our schedule who couldn’t drop 30 on this defense, even the Jets.

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Like I said though, and the thing about Harris smiling that didn't frustrate me, is that I know Howell can keep us in it. Even the bears game wasn't a blowout. It was 30 20, supposed to be 30 23 if Slye makes that FG with a chance for an onsides kick and GWD. 

 

That's what I can see in all these games against the QBs I say are on Howell's level. Not saying we're going 11 win. But we should be in 11 games. 

 

I am guessing Harris smiling had nothing to do with football, there were a couple of people around him that he was talking to, comes off like there were some jokes flying.  But who knows.

 

As for Howell, I like what I've seen.  I've been optimisitc about Howell since he was taken.  I recall watching the draft with my son as he kept falling and saying please take Howell and I compared it to 2012 when Kirk fell.  I was good with the Kirk pick, too.

 

I still want to see a bigger sample.  But I like the sample so far. 

[Thinking Skins]

13 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am guessing Harris smiling had nothing to do with football, there were a couple of people around him that he was talking to, comes off like there were some jokes flying.  But who knows.

 

As for Howell, I like what I've seen.  I've been optimisitc about Howell since he was taken.  I recall watching the draft with my son as he kept falling and saying please take Howell and I compared it to 2012 when Kirk fell.  I was good with the Kirk pick, too.

 

I still want to see a bigger sample.  But I like the sample so far. 

I look back at last year and what Lawrence and Goff became. People were saying what our defense was and they were bad, but they were up against good QBs who hadn't shown it yet. I think we could feast 

[AlwaysBeRedskins2Me]

52 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Looking at this with a glass half full mentality, 

 

it was against Buffalo with a good performance

Philly where Hurts beat us with his arm which we dared him to making some really accurate throws. 

Fields beat us with his arm which we dared him to, making some really accurate throws, 

 

Everybody's not a league MVP talent or top ten talent we're going against. 

So I'm looking at our schedule and its Ridder, D. Jones, M. Jones, G. Smith, D Jones, Prescott, Stafford, Wilson, and Prescott. 

And even our next game against Hurts is winnable because we took them to the wire. 

 

Then there's games against Tua and  Purdy who I think outclass us. 

 

The question is will Mac Jones or Daniel Jones or even Ridder see their poetential before seeing us. Stafford is a shell of his former self and not playing like the first overall pick but he could come into that body when he sees us. 

 

Thing is we went against a set that I don't think we will face again the rest of the year. 

When you mentioned Stafford, it got me thinking, can you even imagine what Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are going to do to our secondary?? Holy moly!! 

[Thinking Skins]

19 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am guessing Harris smiling had nothing to do with football, there were a couple of people around him that he was talking to, comes off like there were some jokes flying.  But who knows.

 

As for Howell, I like what I've seen.  I've been optimisitc about Howell since he was taken.  I recall watching the draft with my son as he kept falling and saying please take Howell and I compared it to 2012 when Kirk fell.  I was good with the Kirk pick, too.

 

I still want to see a bigger sample.  But I like the sample so far. 

You know what. I didn't even think about that. They're in a private booth and they're probably saying something between friends unrelated to the game. It's hard because so much of what I do during the game revolves around the game. He's probably making deals and stuff. 

[Thinking Skins]

On Ben Standing's podcast, he had Logan Paulson and the question was why didn't EB do more plays with more protections than the standard OL. I liked Logan's answer. I won't say I fully agree but I understand. K

He said.

1. It creates mismatches of a DL against a TE or a RB.

2. It makes it harder to see through the throwing lanes

 

There may have been more but I was driving

[Thinking Skins]

Here's just some stats right now, relevant from PFR on those QBS we're facing this year. 

Howell - Comp % 68.6, Y/A 7.1 Yards 1349 Int % 3.1 Succ% 46.4

 

Ridder - Comp % 65, Y/A 6.9 Yards 1073 Int % 1.9, Succ% 44.3

D. Jones - Comp% 68.9, Y/A 5.9 Yards 882 Int % 4.0, Succ% 38.0

M. Jones - Comp % 62.5, Y/A 6.0 Yards 1008 Int % 3.6, Succ% 40.1

G. Smith - Comp % 68.3, Y/A 6.9, Yards 846 Int% 0.8, Succ% 51.5

Prescott - Comp % 69.4 Y/A 6.6, Yards 1061 Int% 3.1, Succ% 49.1

Stafford - Comp % 61.1 Y/A 6.5, Yards 1451 Int% 2.5, Succ% 46.8

Wilson - Comp % 61.1 Y/A 6.1, Yards 911 Int% 3.4, Succ% 35.6

 

That shows that Howell is pretty much in the same ball park in a lot of these stats. 

I won't compare that to Fields, Hurts and Allen but I will just say that (sounding like a homer) two of those guys are league MVPs who were due to get it all together and the third (Fields) was projected before the season to be an MVP candidate by many. So these struggles are not so hard to see in that light. 

[Going Commando]

41 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

1. It creates mismatches of a DL against a TE or a RB.

 

Only if you do something dumb like leave the TE or RB one on one with the DL.  They're not supposed to be the sole block the DL faces.

[Voice_of_Reason]

I've had a little time to reflect on the offense and on Howell.  Here's my reflection:

 

I think there is a small amount of criticism EB is taking that is warranted.  

 

I think a whole lot is not deserved at all.

 

The "run the ball more" crowd just needs to shut up.  That's not how you do offense in the league now, and it's not the Andy Reid system.  Reid has been pass-first, run when appropriate (especially in the second half) for his entire career.  He was roasted for it in Philly with McNabb.  You know what?  He's smarter than all of the critics.  EB is a Reid disciple.  He's following the same blueprint.  It's fine.  It works.  

 

As I called out in the "Day After: Bea" thread: over the first 3 drives, they ran the ball 6 times for 10 yards, and that included 5 straight runs for 1 yard or less.  The first run of the game was 5 yards, the next 5 net 5 yards.  It directly led to 2 3-outs.  You can "stick with" the running game only if you can pick up first downs.  Over 5 runs, if you get 5 yards, you can't stick with the running game. It wasn't working even a little bit.  So, EB abandoned it and went to something which was working, which was throwing the ball to 11 different receivers.  He fully substituted the short pass for the run, because the run wasn't working even a little bit.  He couldn't sacrifice another drive or two to "stick with the running game" with the way the defense was playing.  If the defense was holding it's own, fine, you can keep at it and punt.  When the defense is being torched, you don't have that luxury.  You have to score every drive to stay in the game.  If over 6 runs you have 10 yards, it's time to do something else.  

 

Now, could he have come back to the run a little later, at least here or there?  Yes.  I wanted him to run down around the goal line, a draw or something probably would have caught the defense flat footed.  But they scored anyway, so it's tough to criticize.

 

I like Robinson. However, the results over a bunch of games now is runs early in games aren't good, and are better once the pass has been established.  That's the pattern.  

 

Which takes us to Howell.  

 

He basically took the entire offense over against the Bears.  After 2 3-outs, a bunch of which was due to trying to be balanced and run the ball unsuccessfully, he QBed the offence over the next 7 drives to 20 points, and was basically moving the ball up and down the field.  3 big mistakes, or it would have been more:  Slye's missed FG is automatic 3 points, Logan Thomas' fumble.  No fumble and they have the ball at their own 47 with a first down.  Very likely get points out of that drive.  And then Howell's INT.  All bad.  Apart from those three mistakes, they basically had their way with the Bear's defense for the middle part of the game.  The problem: the defense just kept giving up more and more points.  

 

A fair criticism of Howell at the moment is he holds the ball too long, and needs to speed up the process and get the ball out of his hands.  The concern is he's a "throw it after you see it open" guy.  I don't think that's the case, but if it is, he's not going to last.  This also can't really be coached.  Either that's who you are or you aren't.  

 

If he's a "throw with anticipation" guy, then this is going to improve with time.  The sacks will go down, and the completions will go up.  I think this is what you're going to see.  It's Sam's first year in one of the most wordy, complex offenses in the history of the NFL.  (Also one of the best.)  But it's going to take some time for him to "get it." 

 

Apart from the processing speed criticism, which is fair, there's nothing else to criticize.  He's learning.  He's played 6 games.  He's going to make some bone-headed mistakes.  Peyton Manning threw 20 INTS (or something like that) his rookie year.  They put the entire offense on him, and he had to sink or swim. He sank a lot.  Then he turned into one of the best swimmers of all time.  I don't expect Sam to have the same trajectory as Manning, but I could see a similar path, where he just keeps getting better, better, quicker and quicker as the season goes on.

 

Absent the Bills game, the offense has carried this team.  They're going to have to continue to do it.  I don't expect the defense to turn it around this year.  Call it a hunch.  I think it's just broken.  

 

That means Sam's going to have to throw the ball a ton the rest of the season.  

 

One other thing: I would argue the Commanders had excellent balance against the Bears offensively: 11 players caught passes.  That's actually balance.  It's not run/pass balance, but it is balance.  My nit-pick is Terry needs to be getting A LOT more targets.  He had 4 receptions on 5 targets.  Thomas had 9 receptions on 11 targets.  I think that needs to flip.  But having said that, if they were bracketing Terry and that took Sam to the TE, that shows significant growth from him.

 

Somebody once said Tom Brady's superpower was just doing the "boring" thing over and over again. (I looked for the quote, I can't find it.  It might have actually been Payton who said it.  I remember hearing it on TV at some point.)  So, if that's the reason Thomas got 11 targets, I can live with that.  

[Thinking Skins]

What's interesting is that when I go to https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.php?week=5&range=week and look at air yards for week 5 I see that the number 2 and 3 getters for that week are Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder, with Sam Howell at a measly 4.5 Air yards per attempt (probably because of the number of attempts) and Ridder at 6.0 per attempt. But I did not expect Ridder to be that high. 

[Thinking Skins]

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

What's interesting is that when I go to https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.php?week=5&range=week and look at air yards for week 5 I see that the number 2 and 3 getters for that week are Sam Howell and Desmond Ridder, with Sam Howell at a measly 4.5 Air yards per attempt (probably because of the number of attempts) and Ridder at 6.0 per attempt. But I did not expect Ridder to be that high. 

 

 

 

So Ridder only had 1 play of 20 yards or more, and 14 other plays of 10 yards or more. This guy was depending on his playmakers to make plays. 

[lovemaskins]

4 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

You know what. I didn't even think about that. They're in a private booth and they're probably saying something between friends unrelated to the game. It's hard because so much of what I do during the game revolves around the game. He's probably making deals and stuff. 

Yep, to think any NFL owner wouldn’t be living his best life after spending 6Bils and now owning an NFL franchise is laughable. He’s the king of his party, I know I wouldn’t be a sour puss drinking high end scotch in my personal suite.

Hell I’m not rich and been a diehard Skins fan all my life, but I’ve been done with getting bent out of shape with this team. I’m living my best life too. I watch and smile, win awesome, lose oh well… life’s too short for the nonsense.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

Desmond Ridder (ATL)     1    15    18    83%    115    6.4    75    4.2    7    1    1    0    0    2.4    4    1    1    5    2    1    2    112
Desmond Ridder (ATL)     1    19    32    59%    237    7.4    141    4.4    8    4    1    1    0    2.4    1    4    4    13    5    2    6    80
Desmond Ridder (ATL)     1    21    38    55%    201    5.3    129    3.4    10    2    0    0    0    2.3    7    2    4    6    6    4    3    70
Desmond Ridder (ATL)     1    19    31    61%    191    6.2    111    3.6    8    1    1    0    0    2.0    4    3    1    12    3    1    5    63
Desmond Ridder (ATL)     1    28    37    76%    329    8.9    223    6.0    15    5    1    0    0    2.1    0    5    3    6    5    1    3    111

 

That's the statline from fantasypros on Desmond Ridder. What you can see is that week 5 is not an anamoly. Its just that they missed tackles to make bigger plays. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Chris 44]

14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

 

Finlay's point seems spot on, and you can say it about this team in general, no urgency (blase) to fix things. It seems the more obvious something is the more they seem not to want to address it.

[Conn]

43 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

 

 

So Ridder only had 1 play of 20 yards or more, and 14 other plays of 10 yards or more. This guy was depending on his playmakers to make plays. 

How it should be really, when three consecutive first round picks have given your franchise Kyle Pitts, Drake London, and Bijan Robinson.
 

This doesn’t fall into the exact category of play that you’re talking about, but in terms of yards after the catch, even on a poor throw:

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]