The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[SkinsFTW]

Also, Wentz played so bad for the Colts that they just kept on playing him knowing that they would be giving up a first round pick. They could have just benched him after about Week 15 and kept their pick. 

[CobraCommander]

3 minutes ago, SkinsFTW said:

Also, Wentz played so bad for the Colts that they just kept on playing him knowing that they would be giving up a first round pick. They could have just benched him after about Week 15 and kept their pick. 

Why would they do that?

[FootballZombie]

17 minutes ago, redskinss said:

It feels like you're just not willing to acknowledge inflation. 

You're tossing around 28 million as though it's some absurd number and 15 years ago it would be but now it's middle to slightly above middle of the pack for a quarterback, right where wentz falls as a quarterback and you can't ignore that it's a huge benefit to know it has no future guarantees unlike so many other question mark quarterbacks we've brought in over the years.

 

If it helps, forget the numbers. He is a top 10 paid player in the NFL this year. I don't care what year your in, 2005 or 2025, that is a lot, especially for a guy who is not a franchise QB.

 

Future guarantees are not so big a deal when your playing w/ money at the scale Wentz is at. For example, the Saints could straight up cut Winston next season, or even next week, and still devote significantly less cap space to the player then we are paying Wentz this year alone, Who cares when that money is paid, it gets spent regardless. The cap space lost next year is replaced by gains this year. A QB in the same prove it situation can have their entire contract fit under the cap space of 1 year of Wentz.

 

15 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Upside generally means he has the potential to be a top 10 QB or at the very least top half of the NFL QB. IMO Winston's only potential is to be a semi-passable starter.

 

He has led the NFL in yards and yards/game. I think his highest ceiling potential is a little better than semi-passable starter

 

1 minute ago, oraphus said:

This is an apples to oranges comparison and off on so many levels.. and I like Winston by the way.

1. Winston was never coming here.. no way he chooses Skins over saints.. maybe if Wash way overpaid for him to the tune of 20+mil. Besides the fact that he is still injured and might not be ready for the start of the season.

2. While Wentz has shown the ability to play like a top 5 qb for extended time, Winston never has. His upside is Kirk Kousins and we all know where that gets you.

3. Even after paying Wentz 28mil this year, Wash has plenty of cap space to get whomever they want. FO saying they dont have the money to make moves is BS. It sounds like they are mostly content with the roster and felt QB was the biggest missing link. FAs out there were not worth the contracts they were getting or in house players were good enough to replace departing ones.

4. If all stars align and Winston plays lights out as well as stays healthy in 22, he will demand top QB money in 23 to the tune of 35-40mil annual range so Saints are most likely looking at a one year rental. He!!, even if he plays just ok (top 20 qb) he will ask and get 30+mil per y; while Wash has control of Wentz for 3 years at roughly 28mil per y. So even if the two have similar perf, we will win with Wentz deal over 3y. Giving up 2nd and 3rd picks sucks, but worth the risk.

 

1.) Its a hypothetical to answer a question. Just looking at how else money could be spent. I don't think where players wanted to go matters too much in this exercise.

2.) If you build your Roster you don't need Winston to be top 5 to get the better end of the situation. For less of a cap hit I'm saying Winston, Badger, Maye, Landry > Wentz.

3.) Any Cap space Wash has could be 28Mil greater sans Wentz. Beyond the QBs hit, any use of that other cap space, could also be replicated by a team sans Wentz as the same money is available. Never said the FO cant make moves, I'm saying they could make the same moves plus 28M more in a Wentz removed environment.

4.) If all the stars align I will be happy to have a franchise QB and will give him his new deal. If they don't align, I have committed less money at QB, no draft picks, and have a better surrounding cast for the next guy.

[Voice_of_Reason]

36 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

Winston is far from a zero upside QB. Dude has a 5K year under his belt at 28. Dalton is just an insurance policy, which every good team needs.

I like Winston. However  He threw 30 INTs his 5k year. 
 

I don’t like that.  
 

Last year in New Orleans, they were still trying to figure out the balance to have him be aggressive without being a turnover machine.  
 

He’s recovering from a torn ACL.

 

He had to go back to New Orleans because it would have been a bad idea to go somewhere else and try and learn a new offense while recovering from an ACL. 
 

(Caveat, I think they’re keeping the Sean Payton terminology without the Sean Payton.)

 

He has upside.  But he’s also had downside.  

[SkinsFTW]

6 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

He has led the NFL in yards and yards/game.

 

And INT's, and it wasn't even close. 

[Redskins 2021]

8 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

If it helps, forget the numbers. He is a top 10 paid player in the NFL this year. I don't care what year your in, 2005 or 2025, that is a lot, especially for a guy who is not a franchise QB.

 

Future guarantees are not so big a deal when your playing w/ money at the scale Wentz is at. For example, the Saints could straight up cut Winston next season, or even next week, and still devote significantly less cap space to the player then we are paying Wentz this year alone, Who cares when that money is paid, it gets spent regardless. The cap space lost next year is replaced by gains this year. A QB in the same prove it situation can have their entire contract fit under the cap space of 1 year of Wentz.

 

 

He has led the NFL in yards and yards/game. I think his highest ceiling potential is a little better than semi-passable starter

 

 

1.) Its a hypothetical to answer a question. Just looking at how else money could be spent. I don't think where players wanted to go matters too much in this exercise.

2.) If you build your Roster you don't need Winston to be top 5 to get the better end of the situation. For less of a cap hit I'm saying Winston, Badger, Maye, Landry > Wentz.

3.) Any Cap space Wash has could be 28Mil greater sans Wentz. Beyond the QBs hit, any use of that other cap space, could also be replicated by a team sans Wentz as the same money is available. Never said the FO cant make moves, I'm saying they could make the same moves plus 28M more in a Wentz removed environment.

4.) If all the stars align I will be happy to have a franchise QB and will give him his new deal. If they don't align, I have committed less money at QB, no draft picks, and have a better surrounding cast for the next guy.

1. Big thing with Winston is he still is recovering from the ACL injury and may not be ready for regular season. That is probably why we did not look at him.

 

2.Without injury Winston would have cost alot more money. He is probably a step behind Wentz. If healthy he probably would have got about same money as Wentz.

 

3. There no guarantee you will get Landry and all the other players. There a good chance none of those player would want to sign here. 

 

 

Edited June 6, 2022 by Redskins 2021

[FootballZombie]

11 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I like Winston. However  He threw 30 INTs his 5k year. 
 

I don’t like that.  
 

Last year in New Orleans, they were still trying to figure out the balance to have him be aggressive without being a turnover machine.  
 

He’s recovering from a torn ACL.

 

He had to go back to New Orleans because it would have been a bad idea to go somewhere else and try and learn a new offense while recovering from an ACL. 
 

(Caveat, I think they’re keeping the Sean Payton terminology without the Sean Payton.)

 

He has upside.  But he’s also had downside.  

 

If your gonna hold the INT thing against Winston do it for Wentz too.

 

Wentz led the NFL in INTs more recently than Winston has, and that was even with him getting benched and missing significant games.

 

 

They are both players hanging onto starting spots by a thread. They both have positives and negatives. Never said Winston was a perfect prospect, or even a better prospect, but Winston at 4M plus a bunch of impact players is a lot better than Wentz at 28M.

 

6 minutes ago, SkinsFTW said:

 

And INT's, and it wasn't even close. 

 

So has our current guy. more recently

Edited June 6, 2022 by FootballZombie

[Voice_of_Reason]

Just now, FootballZombie said:

 

If your gonna hold the INT thing against Winston do it for Wentz too.

 

Wentz led the NFL in INTs more recently than Winston has, and that was even with him getting benched and missing significant games.

 

 

They are both players hanging onto starting spots by a thread. They both have positives and negatives. Never said Winston was a perfect prospect, or even a better prospect, but Winston at 4M plus a bunch of impact players is a lot better than Wentz at 28M.

Wentz had a 15 INT season in 2020.  Winston had DOUBLE that.  

 

Wentz also had a depleted roster.  Winston had a roster which went to and won the SB the next year.  

 

Winston this year here would have been a disaster because he wouldn't have been able to practice until MAYBE training camp.  That's basically the biggest reason I was out on Winston.  If you signed him, you were staring at TH starting the season right in the face at worst, or at best, Winston playing with very, very little practice/preparation time.

 

The money is irrelevant.  You're stuck on it for your own reasons, but they still have $18M of cap space, and $28M isn't that big a deal for a QB in today's NFL.   If they were up against the cap, fine, maybe it's an issue.  They're not.  So it's not.  

 

FWIW, after Winston's 5,000 yard, 31 TD and 30 INT season, he was replaced by Brady, and then couldn't find a team to even give him a shot.  

 

Wentz was the right play here if only because Winston was going to miss most of the off-season on-field work while recovering from the ACL.  And again, the money is complete, totally, and in every possible way irrelevant.  If they needed cap room, they could clear as much as they needed to do whatever they wanted.  

[redskinss]

19 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

If it helps, forget the numbers. He is a top 10 paid player in the NFL this year.

There is no point in continuing this debate if every time you're going to revert to cap costs.

I acknowledge he's top ten in cap costs you won't acknowledge there's a price to pay for that down the road.

[oraphus]

11 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

They are both players hanging onto starting spots by a thread. They both have positives and negatives. Never said Winston was a perfect prospect, or even a better prospect, but Winston at 4M plus a bunch of impact players is a lot better than Wentz at 28M.

 

Why do you keep sayin Winston is 4mil? Saints signed Winston to a 28mil 2y contract ( so i was wrong, they actually have him for 2y w 21mil guaranteed. https://www.nfl.com/news/jameis-winston-saints-re-sign-qb-to-two-year-28m-deal#:~:text=The New Orleans Saints are,million signing bonus%2C per Rapoport.

 

So if he stinks it up this year and gets cut, the Saints are still on the hook for 21mil. So if at the end of the year, they both suck and get cut its 21 vs 28mil ... ill take Wentz's upside for additional 7mil and two 3rd pick all day! 

Edited June 6, 2022 by oraphus

[SkinsFTW]

4 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

So has our current guy. more recently

 

 

Wentz threw 15. Winston threw 30.

 

Quite a difference. He had the highest Int% since Eli Manning in 2013. (another reason Eli shouldn't be in the HOF)

[mistertim]

22 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

He has led the NFL in yards and yards/game. I think his highest ceiling potential is a little better than semi-passable starter

 

 

Who cares if he threw for a ton of yards? He mostly sucked while doing that and led the league in interceptions with 30. This is such a bizarre hill to die on. 

 

Edited June 6, 2022 by mistertim

[Voice_of_Reason]

19 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

If it helps, forget the numbers. He is a top 10 paid player in the NFL this year. I don't care what year your in, 2005 or 2025, that is a lot, especially for a guy who is not a franchise QB.

It doesn't matter.  It doesn't matter at all.  It matters nothing.  Not even a little bit.  Not even the tiniest little bit does it matter.  

 

Why?  Because they have $18M of cap space right now WITH his salary.  

 

If they had to clear cap room to afford him, sure, fine, I'd listen to your argument for more than a second before dismissing it as irrelevant.  (it would still be irrelevant).  But they didn't.  They had the room, they used it.  If they wanted to, they could have signed anybody else they wanted.  

 

It's not like they were eating a $38 or $50M cap hit.  It's fine.  It's not a big deal.  Let it go.  

[Voice_of_Reason]

12 minutes ago, oraphus said:

Why do you keep sayin Winston is 4mil? Saints signed Winston to a 28mil 2y contract ( so i was wrong, they actually have him for 2y w 21mil guaranteed. https://www.nfl.com/news/jameis-winston-saints-re-sign-qb-to-two-year-28m-deal#:~:text=The New Orleans Saints are,million signing bonus%2C per Rapoport.

 

So if he stinks it up this year and gets cut, the Saints are still on the hook for 21mil

That's not ENTIRELY true according to Spotrac: (though your point is valid)

 

What's interesting about this is they tacked on 3 voidable years.  

 

So his cap hits are $4M this year (that's where @FootballZombie's $4M number comes from.)  

 

However, he has $21M in total guarantees.  Which means he is a $21M cap hit over time no matter what.  If he plays the full 2 years, he would count $28M on the cap over 4 years, and they are going to continue paying for him until 2026.  

 

This is one of those examples where 2 things can be true at the same time:  

 

- Yeah, he only counts $4M against the cap THIS YEAR.

- But you pay for it later, because if he's on the roster next year, it's a $15M hit, and then $2.8 the next three years.  Or they could cut him after 2022, they would take an $11M hit in 2023, and then a $8M hit in 2024.

 

One way or another, over time, they're taking a $21M cap hit at minimum. 

 

Personally, especially since Winston is recovering from an ACL, I like the Wetnz deal better.  You pay more for a QB who can actually play through the off-season, and if it doesn't work, he's gone and you don't have at minimum 2 more years to pay for him.

 

If Winston had finished the season and the Saints made the playoffs, and he wasn't recovering from a torn ACL, ALL of these numbers would be a lot higher. And he would probably still be with the Saints, because that would make sense for both sides.  But he would probably have been closer to a $22-26 AAV if those things had happened.  Not the $14 AAV due to his shortened season and injury.  

 

The Saints, FWIW, are another team that keeps kicking the salary cap down the road, like the Rams.  Which is absolutely fine.  But that's why they are paying for Winston over a minimum of 3 years, and possible 5 for 2 years of service.  

Edited June 6, 2022 by Voice_of_Reason

[FootballZombie]

5 minutes ago, oraphus said:

Why do you keep sayin Winston is 4mil? Saints signed Winston to a 28mil 2y contract ( so i was wrong, they actually have him for 2y w 21mil guaranteed. https://www.nfl.com/news/jameis-winston-saints-re-sign-qb-to-two-year-28m-deal#:~:text=The New Orleans Saints are,million signing bonus%2C per Rapoport.

 

So if he stinks it up this year and gets cut, the Saints are still on the hook for 21mil

 

4Mil is Winston's cost to the saints cap this year. If he stinks and they cut him, he will never see large chuncks of the money in his contract. He does not truly have 21M in G money, I believe a lot of it is incentive based, and he can't reach those if he is cut.

 

 

6 minutes ago, redskinss said:

There is no point in continuing this debate if every time you're going to revert to cap costs.

I acknowledge he's top ten in cap costs you won't acknowledge there's a price to pay for that down the road.

 

I know there is no G money down the road if cut, but that's not my point here.

 

If Wentz stinks and gets cut, we have devoted 28 M in cap to him. There may be no future cost, but you have already spent 28Mil of a finite source

 

If Winston stinks and gets cut, They are on the hook for 4M this year, and 11 next. That is 15 M total. Even if they spread it out over two years, your looking at a net saving of over 10M in cap space. You have spent much less of what is a finite source.

 

I don't care as much about Wentz not costing future money if he is putting me on the hook for booku-bucks now

 

11 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

It doesn't matter.  It doesn't matter at all.  It matters nothing.  Not even a little bit.  Not even the tiniest little bit does it matter.  

 

I think it matters a lot.

[Voice_of_Reason]

4 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

4Mil is Winston's cost to the saints cap this year. If he stinks and they cut him, he will never see large chuncks of the money in his contract. He does not truly have 21M in G money, I believe a lot of it is incentive based, and he can't reach those if he is cut.

Look at my post above.  You're kindof wrong about this.  

4 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

If Wentz stinks and gets cut, we have devoted 28 M in cap to him. There may be no future cost, but you have already spent 28Mil of a finite source

This is very limited thinking, because you have to spend the money THIS YEAR anyway, because there is also a cap floor.  Sure, you can carry some over.  But not all of it.  Sure, the $28M is sunk cost.  But so what?  You have complete freedom to do whatever you want next year.  Shrug. 

 

You don't like Wetnz, and you're trying to turn yourself into a pretzel to make a financial case against it, and you're just kindof off about all of it.  That isn't so much opinion, as it is the numbers reported...

4 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

I think it matters a lot.

Well, you'd be wrong then.  

Edited June 6, 2022 by Voice_of_Reason

[oraphus]

3 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

4Mil is Winston's cost to the saints cap this year. If he stinks and they cut him, he will never see large chuncks of the money in his contract. He does not truly have 21M in G money, I believe a lot of it is incentive based, and he can't reach those if he is cut.

 

21 Mil is fully guaranteed if he is still on the team at the beginning of 23.. so Saints are most likely paying out the full 28mil even if its spread over 5y like Voice_of_reason mentioned above. 

• $15.2M guaranteed at signing (signing bonus + 2022 salary)
• $5.8M of 2023 salary fully guarantees on the 3rd league day of 2023 (injury guaranteed at signing)

[Ball Security]

39 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

If it helps, forget the numbers. He is a top 10 paid player in the NFL this year. I don't care what year your in, 2005 or 2025, that is a lot, especially for a guy who is not a franchise QB.

 

Future guarantees are not so big a deal when your playing w/ money at the scale Wentz is at. For example, the Saints could straight up cut Winston next season, or even next week, and still devote significantly less cap space to the player then we are paying Wentz this year alone, Who cares when that money is paid, it gets spent regardless. The cap space lost next year is replaced by gains this year. A QB in the same prove it situation can have their entire contract fit under the cap space of 1 year of Wentz.

 

 

He has led the NFL in yards and yards/game. I think his highest ceiling potential is a little better than semi-passable starter

 

 

1.) Its a hypothetical to answer a question. Just looking at how else money could be spent. I don't think where players wanted to go matters too much in this exercise.

2.) If you build your Roster you don't need Winston to be top 5 to get the better end of the situation. For less of a cap hit I'm saying Winston, Badger, Maye, Landry > Wentz.

3.) Any Cap space Wash has could be 28Mil greater sans Wentz. Beyond the QBs hit, any use of that other cap space, could also be replicated by a team sans Wentz as the same money is available. Never said the FO cant make moves, I'm saying they could make the same moves plus 28M more in a Wentz removed environment.

4.) If all the stars align I will be happy to have a franchise QB and will give him his new deal. If they don't align, I have committed less money at QB, no draft picks, and have a better surrounding cast for the next guy.

Wentz is not a top 10 paid player this season.  
 

Rodgers, Mahomes, Wilson, Carr, Dak, Stafford, Goff, Cousins, Watson, and Allen all make more than him.

 

https://www.nfl.com/photos/ranking-the-nfl-s-biggest-contracts-for-2022

[mistertim]

I can't believe we're back to rehashing this old ass "let's build up a stellar cast and have a mediocre QB" argument again. The NFL has moved on from that. Every team acknowledges that you need a top franchise QB to be a contender over a long period of time.

 

[FootballZombie]

12 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

You don't like Wetnz, and you're trying to turn yourself into a pretzel to make a financial case against it, and you're just kindof off about all of it.  That isn't so much opinion, as it is the numbers reported...

 

Got nothin against the guy, hope he does well and kills it. I just don't have faith that he will provided the evidence, and I've made no qualms that I see the deal we made as a bad one for a multitude of reasons beyond just money.

 

9 minutes ago, oraphus said:

21 Mil is fully guaranteed if he is still on the team at the beginning of 23.. so Saints are most likely paying out the full 28mil even if its spread over 5y like Voice_of_reason mentioned above. 

• $15.2M guaranteed at signing (signing bonus + 2022 salary)
• $5.8M of 2023 salary fully guarantees on the 3rd league day of 2023 (injury guaranteed at signing)

 

If he does not work out and they cut him at the start of the next league year, he does not get 28 M. That is less then Wentz makes this year, my point remains valid.

 

12 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Wentz is not a top 10 paid player this season.  
 

Rodgers, Mahomes, Wilson, Carr, Dak, Stafford, Goff, Cousins, Watson, and Allen all make more than him.

 

https://www.nfl.com/photos/ranking-the-nfl-s-biggest-contracts-for-2022

 

That is a list based on average yearly value of the contract. None of the players on the list are making that money this year, It even lists Wentz at 32M.

 

There are not 10 players in the NFL with a higher cap hit than Wentz' 28M this year.

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, FootballZombie said:

 

That is a list based on average yearly value of the contract. None of the players on the list are making that money this year, It even lists Wentz at 32M.

 

There are not 10 players in the NFL with a higher cap hit than Wentz' 28M this year.

Looking at one year of a contract is only looking at part of the elephant. 
 

It is, frankly, an awful way to look at a contract. 

[FootballZombie]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Looking at one year of a contract is only looking at part of the elephant. 
 

It is, frankly, an awful way to look at a contract. 

 

In a time where players don't see the money at the end of there deals once the G money runs out, I disagree. Viewing a QBs APY is not a clear representation of what they will get.

 

Rodgers signed a deal back in 2018 that averaged 31 Mil a year. He has yet to have a cap hit that has exceeded much more than 29. His actual avg was south of 25M. His highwater mark did not even reach the average forecasted pay at the start of the deal. Looking at his next contract, he may have 50 M APY but GB is not locked into that price range. When its all said in done, Rodgers aint gonna average 50 a year.

 

Looking at the actual hit in a year lets you see how much they really cost, vs looking at some number that will likely be drastically undercut when all is said and done.

Edited June 6, 2022 by FootballZombie

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

Got nothin against the guy, hope he does well and kills it. I just don't have faith that he will provided the evidence, and I've made no qualms that I see the deal we made as a bad one for a multitude of reasons beyond just money.

But you seem completely fixated on the money. 

 

It's 2 mid-round draft picks, one of which can become a 2nd if he plays 70% of the snaps this year.  Ok, and they swapped 6 or 8 spots in the second round this year.  

 

The trade compensation for a <30 possible franchise QB is more than reasonable.  

 

The money is not an issue.

 

You are harping on it because you don't see the value in the player.  

 

That's fine, that's your opinion.  But the money nor the compensation is unreasonable or out of line.  

[FootballZombie]

3 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

But you seem completely fixated on the money. 

 

Since the trade I have more then debated concerns around the cost, both in draft picks and financial, Wentz' behavior history, his only recent success coming as a game manager, the explosive exits from previous stops and more. I am hardly only concerned about money when I have criticized the move on a variety of front.

 

Money is simply what we were all talking about today, But I've sent posts back and forth on a number of topics.

[SkinsFTW]

But to then argue for Jameis Winston is kind of funny.