The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[shemp nixon]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

The Jets have a team shaman? Rodgers has a dick?

All kidding aside, as long as AR doesn't **** anybodies mom I think the Jets will turn a bling eye  to pretty much anything.    

[88Comrade2000]

Jordan Love?  If this guy was anything; Packers would’ve not given Aaron his money and let him go.

 

Packers will be stinking post Aaron.

[Conn]

2 hours ago, tmandoug1 said:

So now Howell is QB1 and Minshew is QB2......I'm going to bed. 

why not? 

[philibusters]

17 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Greg Cosell who seems pretty plugged in around the league thought one hesitation was his height.  His point was with Mayfield struggiling at the time -- perception around the league is the 6 foot and under QBs sans Drew Brees were at a disadvantage unless they are super mobile

 

Here are some of the comments of NFL scouts to Bob McGinn .  Per usual they are mixed on the player.  Some like, some don't. 

 

https://www.golongtd.com/p/part-3-qb-bet-on-teams-in-need-rolling

 

 

5. SAM HOWELL, North Carolina (6-0 ½, 224, no 40, 1-2): Third-year junior with 37 straight starts. “Like him,” one scout said. “He’s a gunslinger. I like the aggression he plays with. Got a strong arm. Can go vertical. He’s a good athlete for the position. He’s got the makeup to play early and be efficient. He can take advantage of your weapons. He’s got the arm to reach ‘em.” Slipped back in 2021 after the Tar Heels lost many of their best skill-position players to the NFL. Passer ratings were 112.3 in 2019, 122.1 in ’20 and 103.1 in ’21. Still, his career mark of 112.5 was the best of the top 12 passers. “Pound for pound he’s one of the toughest guys in the draft,” another scout said. “His offensive line stunk and he got the crap beat out of him. He’s not afraid to run, and he pops right back up. What’s interesting is, with his leadership, he’s almost a mute. He has no vocal presence at all. But he’s a three-time captain and he’s tough and he goes out and balls. He’s kind of weird; he only leads by example. Joe Flacco was that same way and he ended up to be pretty good. A good comparison is a more talented Gardner Minshew. Just a baller, you know?” Also rushed 369 times for 1,009 (2.7) and 17 TDs. Wonderlic of 34. Hands were 9 1/8. “Everybody wants to compare him to Baker Mayfield,” said a third scout. “It’s not even close. He’s just another short quarterback who’s thick and got an OK arm. In 2020, he had great receivers around him. He didn’t have crap around him this year and he struggles. He feels it (pressure). Just a backup.” From Indiana Trail, N.C.

 

Interesting reading the scouting report.   I would if the third scout now thinks he is comparable to Baker Mayfield (maybe not so much goes he is higher on Howell, but he is lower on Baker now after his struggles with the Panthers).

 

The third scout take is interesting.   He feels that he feels pressure too much and has just an ok arm, not a good one.  I listen to some of the PFF podcasts and the discussion of Zach Wilson during his struggles this season was interesting.  They said he is bad under pressure.   Feels it too much.  That said, that wasn't foreseeable from his college days.  He was well protected at BYU.  When he did face pressure he had above average efficiency but with a high variability (enough big plays to make up for a lot of bad plays).   But since he was well protected, it was a limited sample size from college.  In the NFL he is under constant pressure and he has way below average efficiency by NFL standards under pressure.  

 

I feel like Howell got exposed in college more so than a Zach Wilson.  That said Howell's final year, UNC still had a decent offense.   A lot of that was predicated on his running, but he still found a way to be productive despite facing constant pressure.

 

I balk at the idea that Howell is not comparable to Baker Mayfield.   I think the last two years have shown us that Mayfield struggles when facing constant pressure too.  Most NFL QB do.  I think the practice reports also indicate Howell has better than an okay arm.  Taylor Heincke has a weak NFL arm.  Kirk Cousins has an okay NFL arm.  Howell has a solid NFL arm.  A guy like Doug Williams had an elite NFL arm.  Howell's arm may not be elite, but its solid.  I think the scout maybe underestimated Howell a bit.  That said, its still up in the air whether that third scouts overall take on Howelll that he is just a backup is correct.  It may prove to be correct.  I listened to Logan Paulsen talk about Howell's performance against Dallas and he said Scott Turner did for Howell what he didn't consistently do for Wentz and Heincke and that was make a QB friendly gameplan.  For example plays with a bunch of motions to get one particular guy open and if that guy isn't open, check down or run, but you really only one deeper read--you don't really have to read the defense.  Whereas a lot of plays we run are not QB friendly--your number 1 option against Cover 2 is this, cover 3 is this--more ways for the QB to mess it up.   So Howell looked good but it was a simplified gameplan compared to what we ran for most of the season.

Edited January 28, 2023 by philibusters

[mistertim]

6 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Jordan Love?  If this guy was anything; Packers would’ve not given Aaron his money and let him go.

 

Packers will be stinking post Aaron.

 

Yeah the Packers are going to be in for a seriously rude awakening once Rodgers leaves or retires. They've literally had HoF QB play for the last 30 years. Now they'll suddenly come crashing down to earth and I'm sure it will be quite a shock to the system. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, philibusters said:

 

Interesting reading the scouting report.   I would if the third scout now thinks he is comparable to Baker Mayfield (maybe not so much goes he is higher on Howell, but he is lower on Baker now after his struggles with the Panthers).

 

The third scout take is interesting.   He feels that he feels pressure too much and has just an ok arm, not a good one.  I listen to some of the PFF podcasts and the discussion of Zach Wilson during his struggles this season was interesting.  They said he is bad under pressure.   Feels it too much.  That said, that wasn't foreseeable from his college days.  He was well protected at BYU.  When he did face pressure he had above average efficiency but with a high variability (enough big plays to make up for a lot of bad plays).   But since he was well protected, it was a limited sample size from college.  In the NFL he is under constant pressure and he has way below average efficiency by NFL standards under pressure.  

 

I feel like Howell got exposed in college more so than a Zach Wilson.  That said Howell's final year, UNC still had a decent offense.   A lot of that was predicated on his running, but he still found a way to be productive despite facing constant pressure.

 

I balk at the idea that Howell is not comparable to Baker Mayfield.   I think the last two years have shown us that Mayfield struggles when facing constant pressure too.  Most NFL QB do.  I think the practice reports also indicate Howell has better than an okay arm.  Taylor Heincke has a weak NFL arm.  Kirk Cousins has an okay NFL arm.  Howell has a solid NFL arm.  A guy like Doug Williams had an elite NFL arm.  Howell's arm may not be elite, but its solid.  I think the scout maybe underestimated Howell a bit.  That said, its still up in the air whether that third scouts overall take on Howelll that he is just a backup is correct.  It may prove to be correct.  I listened to Logan Paulsen talk about Howell's performance against Dallas and he said Scott Turner did for Howell what he didn't consistently do for Wentz and Heincke and that was make a QB friendly gameplan.  For example plays with a bunch of motions to get one particular guy open and if that guy isn't open, check down or run, but you really only one deeper read--you don't really have to read the defense.  Whereas a lot of plays we run are not QB friendly--your number 1 option against Cover 2 is this, cover 3 is this--more ways for the QB to mess it up.   So Howell looked good but it was a simplified gameplan compared to what we ran for most of the season.

 

My concerns about Howell from his last college season was pocket presence and does his mobility translate.  Plus, with shorter QBs how is their field vision.  Howell is a tough dude so while I wondered about his peripheral vision and still do, I don't think pressure gets into his head the way it did for example with Wentz.  But will see.  Agree Heinicke has a weak arm.  Kirk IMO and most NFL observers has a better than OK arm, its a good arm.  I've seen Kirk throw in camp, nice velocity on his throws.  Howell I think has better than a solid arm, if we are talking arm strength, its very good.  So I disagree with that scout.  Plenty of others have disagreed with that scout, too.

 

 

 

 

Edited January 28, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

1 hour ago, philibusters said:

 

Interesting reading the scouting report.   I would if the third scout now thinks he is comparable to Baker Mayfield (maybe not so much goes he is higher on Howell, but he is lower on Baker now after his struggles with the Panthers).

 

The third scout take is interesting.   He feels that he feels pressure too much and has just an ok arm, not a good one.  I listen to some of the PFF podcasts and the discussion of Zach Wilson during his struggles this season was interesting.  They said he is bad under pressure.   Feels it too much.  That said, that wasn't foreseeable from his college days.  He was well protected at BYU.  When he did face pressure he had above average efficiency but with a high variability (enough big plays to make up for a lot of bad plays).   But since he was well protected, it was a limited sample size from college.  In the NFL he is under constant pressure and he has way below average efficiency by NFL standards under pressure.  

 

I feel like Howell got exposed in college more so than a Zach Wilson.  That said Howell's final year, UNC still had a decent offense.   A lot of that was predicated on his running, but he still found a way to be productive despite facing constant pressure.

 

I balk at the idea that Howell is not comparable to Baker Mayfield.   I think the last two years have shown us that Mayfield struggles when facing constant pressure too.  Most NFL QB do.  I think the practice reports also indicate Howell has better than an okay arm.  Taylor Heincke has a weak NFL arm.  Kirk Cousins has an okay NFL arm.  Howell has a solid NFL arm.  A guy like Doug Williams had an elite NFL arm.  Howell's arm may not be elite, but its solid.  I think the scout maybe underestimated Howell a bit.  That said, its still up in the air whether that third scouts overall take on Howelll that he is just a backup is correct.  It may prove to be correct.  I listened to Logan Paulsen talk about Howell's performance against Dallas and he said Scott Turner did for Howell what he didn't consistently do for Wentz and Heincke and that was make a QB friendly gameplan.  For example plays with a bunch of motions to get one particular guy open and if that guy isn't open, check down or run, but you really only one deeper read--you don't really have to read the defense.  Whereas a lot of plays we run are not QB friendly--your number 1 option against Cover 2 is this, cover 3 is this--more ways for the QB to mess it up.   So Howell looked good but it was a simplified gameplan compared to what we ran for most of the season.

 

I think the third scout is watching someone else because that doesn't seem like Howell at all. Comparing him to Zach Wilson is absolutely laughable, too. Zach Wilson had very real character concerns that appear to be compounding in the NFL. Howell doesn't. He's a worker. 

 

Stylistically the comparisons to Mayfield absolutely make sense, but skill wise remains to be seen. Mayfield was a quirky, make plays kind of guy with a good arm. Howell has a better arm and, imo, a better runner. Contact balance and vision are on his side and he's faster than he gets credit for. 

 

That third scout makes me think I should try to become a NFL scout. 

[philibusters]

8 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I think the third scout is watching someone else because that doesn't seem like Howell at all. Comparing him to Zach Wilson is absolutely laughable, too. Zach Wilson had very real character concerns that appear to be compounding in the NFL. Howell doesn't. He's a worker. 

 

Stylistically the comparisons to Mayfield absolutely make sense, but skill wise remains to be seen. Mayfield was a quirky, make plays kind of guy with a good arm. Howell has a better arm and, imo, a better runner. Contact balance and vision are on his side and he's faster than he gets credit for. 

 

That third scout makes me think I should try to become a NFL scout. 

 

In fairness the third scout didn't compare him to Zach Wilson, that was my own aside and I wasn't comparing to Zach Wilson, I was making the point that Howell faced to a lot of pressure in college whereas Wilson didn't.  Thus Howell bad  tendencies under pressure got much more exposed than Wilsons.   According to the PFF guys, Wilson had above average efficiency when facing pressure in college, but because he was mostly well protected, it was a small sample size, say 4 plays per game vs. say 15 plays per game.   While making some big plays on the move, Wilson was able to generate good efficiency against pressure, but it didn't translate to when he faced a lot more pressure and pressure in different situations (for example taking a 6 yard sack is very costly on first down, but less so on third down and long if you use expected points added as a metric). I think if Wilson had faced constant pressure in college holes in his game such as his ability to handle pressure would have shown up worse than they did in Howell's game and Wilson likewise would have fallen from say the 2nd pick possibly out of the first round.

Edited January 28, 2023 by philibusters

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

In fairness the third scout didn't compare him to Zach Wilson, that was my own aside and I wasn't comparing to Zach Wilson, I was making the point that Howell faced to a lot of pressure in college whereas Wilson didn't.  Thus Howell bad  tendencies under pressure got much more exposed than Wilsons.   According to the PFF guys, Wilson had above average efficiency when facing pressure in college, but because he was mostly well protected, it was a small sample size, say 4 plays per game vs. say 15 plays per game.   While making some big plays on the move, Wilson was able to generate good efficiency against pressure, but it didn't translate to when he faced a lot more pressure and pressure in different situations (for example taking a 6 yard sack is very costly on first down, but less so on third down and long if you use expected points added as a metric). I think if Wilson had faced constant pressure in college holes in his game such as his ability to handle pressure would have shown up worse than they did in Howell's game and Wilson likewise would have fallen from say the 2nd pick possibly out of the first round.

 

Yeah, I read the scouts takes, so I know the Wilson thing was an offshoot from the PFF podcasts and such. I think it's a stupid comparison. Howell was fine under pressure in college. The pressure he faced wasn't a single guy breaking through the line and throwing him off. He faced a dam break on a routine basis and had to do whatever it took to not get sacked... And this is the kind of thing that I think some of these "stat based" types of people miss. They identify pressure as pressure without context. Their work is valuable and has merit, but it's not apples to apples. 

 

I agree with your overall point, though. If Wilson faced the same kind of pressure as Howell when he faced pressure we would have seen more holes in his game.... but I wasn't all that high on Wilson to begin with. I think I had him as my QB5 in that class. His character concerns aided that rating, but I didn't see what many did in regards to him as a passer. He seemed very locked in at the same kind of guy with no ability to create. 

[philibusters]

7 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Yeah, I read the scouts takes, so I know the Wilson thing was an offshoot from the PFF podcasts and such. I think it's a stupid comparison. Howell was fine under pressure in college. The pressure he faced wasn't a single guy breaking through the line and throwing him off. He faced a dam break on a routine basis and had to do whatever it took to not get sacked... And this is the kind of thing that I think some of these "stat based" types of people miss. They identify pressure as pressure without context. Their work is valuable and has merit, but it's not apples to apples. 

 

I agree with your overall point, though. If Wilson faced the same kind of pressure as Howell when he faced pressure we would have seen more holes in his game.... but I wasn't all that high on Wilson to begin with. I think I had him as my QB5 in that class. His character concerns aided that rating, but I didn't see what many did in regards to him as a passer. He seemed very locked in at the same kind of guy with no ability to create. 

 

I also think the context you face pressure in matters.    Facing pressure on 1st and 10, 2nd and 4, 3rd and 2 is different than facing pressure in 3rd and 9.  On 3rd and 9 a QB is somewhat justified risking a sack by holding on to the ball a bit longer to see if anything opens down field pass the first down marker.  Thus buying some time scrambling can be useful.  If you end up converting a decent percentage of those it justifies some sacks and interceptions (especially if the interceptions are downfield and essentially an arm punt on third down).  By contrast taking sacks and throwing interceptions on 1st and 10, 2nd and 4, 3rd and 2 are absolute killers because those are situations where you are on schedule and don't need a big play and after the negative play you are off schedule.  If Wilson faced most of his pressure on third and long in college, he was justified in scrambling around a bit and holding on to the ball a lot see if he could make a play.   After all you don't want to be Kirk Cousins who checks down for a three yard dump off to a TE on 4th and 8 with the season on the line.  By contrast if its 2 and 6 you do want to be Kirk Cousins who dumps off to the TE for a 3 yard gain, rather than scrambling around where you have a 25% chance of picking up a first down, 25% chance of getting the short gain you could have got with no risk, and a 50% of taking a sack, interception, drawing a holding penalty or an illegal man downfield penalty.

[MrJL]

think Carson Strong will ever be in an NFL training camp again?

[method man]

5 minutes ago, MrJL said:

think Carson Strong will ever be in an NFL training camp again?

Didn’t the Cardinals sign him to a futures contract?

[MrJL]

12 minutes ago, method man said:

Didn’t the Cardinals sign him to a futures contract?

 

I searched his name, Wiki lists him as a free agent, and the Cards roster page doesn't have him on it and the only connection I see to them is them cutting him from the PS late in the season

[method man]

Just now, MrJL said:

 

I searched his name, Wiki lists him as a free agent, and the Cards roster page doesn't have him on it and the only connection I see to them is them cutting him from the PS late in the season

Ah not good for him to get cut again. He may benefit from playing in one of these spring leagues

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

My concerns about Howell from his last college season was pocket presence and does his mobility translate.  Plus, with shorter QBs how is their field vision.  Howell is a tough dude so while I wondered about his peripheral vision and still do, I don't think pressure gets into his head the way it did for example with Wentz.  But will see.  Agree Heinicke has a weak arm.  Kirk IMO and most NFL observers has a better than OK arm, its a good arm.  I've seen Kirk throw in camp, nice velocity on his throws.  Howell I think has better than a solid arm, if we are talking arm strength, its very good.  So I disagree with that scout.  Plenty of others have disagreed with that scout, too.

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah I'm not sure what that scout was looking at, but Howell has a cannon. You can see it in his college tape, and that deep throw to Terry vs Dallas went at least 60 yards in the air and it it didn't look like he had to put much effort into it.

 

That spin rate is ludicrous. IIRC 700 is considered extremely high, and he hit 728?? Does he have a cybernetic wrist and index finger or something? Is there any downside to having an uber high spin rate? I know more spin can add distance and make the ball stay on a rope, but is there a limit to where it's a disadvantage?

 

And I think Madden is probably about right. I'd say Howell is likely top 10 in arm strength.

[MrJL]

16 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah I'm not sure what that scout was looking at, but Howell has a cannon. You can see it in his college tape, and that deep throw to Terry vs Dallas went at least 60 yards in the air and it it didn't look like he had to put much effort into it.

 

That spin rate is ludicrous. IIRC 700 is considered extremely high, and he hit 728?? Does he have a cybernetic wrist and index finger or something? Is there any downside to having an uber high spin rate? I know more spin can add distance and make the ball stay on a rope, but is there a limit to where it's a disadvantage?

 

And I think Madden is probably about right. I'd say Howell is likely top 10 in arm strength.

 

well, if you're doing something extremely weird with your wrist you can do things like give yourself carpal tunnel

[Skinsinparadise]

52 minutes ago, MrJL said:

 

I searched his name, Wiki lists him as a free agent, and the Cards roster page doesn't have him on it and the only connection I see to them is them cutting him from the PS late in the season

 

For Strong, injuries and supposedly super weird guy which came off in interviews seems to be part of the narrative

Edited January 28, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Conn]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

For Strong, injuries and supposedly super weird guy which came off in interviews seems to be part of the narrative

And he allegedly had no idea what he was even looking at in minicamps with the Eagles. They are the QB development factory with no imminent need for him to be ready to play, and he didn’t even make it into training camp, right? He may have a very low football IQ who lived off his arm in college. 

[MrJL]

23 minutes ago, Conn said:

And he allegedly had no idea what he was even looking at in minicamps with the Eagles. They are the QB development factory with no imminent need for him to be ready to play, and he didn’t even make it into training camp, right? He may have a very low football IQ who lived off his arm in college. 

 

he was released final cuts, August 30

[KDawg]

I don’t think Carson Strong is really all that good.

 

He was my QB6 just in front of Dustin Crum. 
 

Immobile statue, strange guy from reports, strong arm, meh accuracy, injured…I doubt he plays in the NFL any time soon. I agree with @method man Guy should be in USFL/XFL and trying to get back. 

Edited January 28, 2023 by KDawg

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

I will add on that I question Carson Strong's arm strength as well. The guy was just not an NFL prospect. Physically, medically, or with intangibles. I had him as undraftable.

[philibusters]

I think I had it

 

 

Tier 1

1.  Kenny Pickett

2.  Malik Willis

 

Tier 2 

3.  Matt Corrall

4.  Sam Howell

 

Tier 3

5.  Carson Strong

6.  Desmond Ridder

 

I think I probably underestimated Ridder.   Malik Willis had the highest ceiling in my opinion and I think he still might, but he has a lower floor than some of the guys he is ranked ahead of.  Corrall was lost for the season with a preseason injury, but in his two appearances he struggled so I would probably flip Sam Howell.   Probably my top 6 now with hindsight is 

 

1.  Pickett

2.  Howell

3.  Ridder

4.  Willis

5.  Bailey

6.  Corral

 

That said, I acknowledge I may be overreacting to a small sample size in moving guys around from where I had them at draft time.

[mistertim]

I always felt that Malik Willis was fools gold. Everyone was caught up in his running ability and big arm, but his accuracy was spotty and he made some absolutely horrible decisions at times. And that was against pretty low level competition. I remember before the draft saying that I thought he'd fall out of the first round and I was called crazy by some people who were convinced that his ceiling meant he'd be a lock in the top 10 at least, if not top 5.

 

Obviously it's still early, but I'm still dubious about his ability to translate into the NFL.

[LD0506]

37 minutes ago, mistertim said:

I always felt that Malik Willis was fools gold. Everyone was caught up in his running ability and big arm, but his accuracy was spotty and he made some absolutely horrible decisions at times. And that was against pretty low level competition. I remember before the draft saying that I thought he'd fall out of the first round and I was called crazy by some people who were convinced that his ceiling meant he'd be a lock in the top 10 at least, if not top 5.

 

Obviously it's still early, but I'm still dubious about his ability to translate into the NFL.

 

I seem to recall some of the same criticism leveled at Lamar Jackson

 

I feel like people underestimate the value of a kid going to the right team, getting what he needs to grow into the pros

[mistertim]

7 minutes ago, LD0506 said:

 

I seem to recall some of the same criticism leveled at Lamar Jackson

 

I feel like people underestimate the value of a kid going to the right team, getting what he needs to grow into the pros

 

Well, Lamar went to a place where they tailored their entire system around a running QB. Most places aren't going to go that far.

 

As far as Lamar, I think he can be electric and really fun to watch, but I also think he's a bit overrated (especially for the kind of money he's looking for). He's more or less a one trick pony. He's not a great passer, so once he either loses a step or two or gets injured (or if this injury now continues to nag him) then he's not a guy who's likely to be able to transform into more of a traditional QB.

 

I don't really blame the Ravens for not wanting to give him a fully guaranteed long term deal.