The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[DogofWar1]

It is possible we may discovery that P2S is a very important stat for projecting all QBs....

 

....except those from LSU.

 

****ing Joe Burrow man, throwing off all the stats.

[Skinsinparadise]

51 minutes ago, Panninho said:

I tend to agree. Maybe you know this but I feel like while Keim always pumped the breaks a little, I thought he was also leaning Ben Johnson at some point (while always stating that they have to go through the process and nothing is fixed and other candidates are also high, etc). Kind of like a "if I had to choose now, I would say Johnson but..." approach. But maybe I am not remembering this correctly.

 

 

 

Everyone back then nationally in partcular were screaming Ben Johnson was their guy.  Keim thought they were hot for him, too.  And am guessing they were but the interview made them pause.  Keim also said from the jump Quinn was a serious candidate who killed it in the interview and has a good shot.  He pretty much played down the chances of the others interviewing aside from McDonald. And was the only one that I recall saying Johnson is no lock -- Schefter got the credit for that point but Keim said it weeks before Schefter did.

 

51 minutes ago, Panninho said:

I

What I find interesting here is specifically point A. Because I could understand why you would come to that conclusion when you poll coaches. At the end of the day, most people agree, that JD is a more polished project who would maybe be seeing success a little earlier. Coaches usually focus on short term results more than on long-term results. They are coaching for their job every year. So I could see why coaches would tend lean Daniels. On the other side, I would assume that scouts and GMs might lean more towards Maye because (as also almost everyone agrees), he has the clearly higher ceiling. Which is also why I could see some divide in-house that leads to indecisiveness and the need to go through an extensive process. But if, to get a clearer picture, you poll coaches, you could end up at the point where Keim is.

However, I also agree with you that Keim is very trustworthy, generally not someone who speculates and is careful with what he says. So it should definitely not be dismissed if he says something.

 

  

I believe if I recall Keim hasn't polled just coaches but its been mostly coaches.  But I don't recall this part 100%.  I can pick up some of it is some feel Maye has more bust potential.  I am gathering it's not that they all agree within time Maye will be the better QB but the aren't patent enough for it to unfold.   But the impression is some think Maye can outright bust.  So I am gathering its a combination of this. 

 

Keim has alluded to this in different ways.  For example when Miller hit some of his concerns about Maye, Keim said he's heard the same things from people he's talked to.

Edited April 5 by Skinsinparadise

[MartinC]

50 minutes ago, Panninho said:

I tend to agree. Maybe you know this but I feel like while Keim always pumped the breaks a little, I thought he was also leaning Ben Johnson at some point (while always stating that they have to go through the process and nothing is fixed and other candidates are also high, etc). Kind of like a "if I had to choose now, I would say Johnson but..." approach. But maybe I am not remembering this correctly.

 

 

What I find interesting here is specifically point A. Because I could understand why you would come to that conclusion when you poll coaches. At the end of the day, most people agree, that JD is a more polished project who would maybe be seeing success a little earlier. Coaches usually focus on short term results more than on long-term results. They are coaching for their job every year. So I could see why coaches would tend lean Daniels. On the other side, I would assume that scouts and GMs might lean more towards Maye because (as also almost everyone agrees), he has the clearly higher ceiling. Which is also why I could see some divide in-house that leads to indecisiveness and the need to go through an extensive process. But if, to get a clearer picture, you poll coaches, you could end up at the point where Keim is.

However, I also agree with you that Keim is very trustworthy, generally not someone who speculates and is careful with what he says. So it should definitely not be dismissed if he says something.

 

I also just saw this clip of JP Finlay.

 

He says that he does not know who they pick at all and from his perspective, noone knows anything. Then he proceeds to say he thinks they are leaning Jayden Daniels and argues this with "the type of player you get there" (subjective and as opposed to what?), "the immediate high ceiling" (whatever that means, guess he means high floor), "how repeatedly DQ and GMAP have talked about how important mobility is" (applies to all 4 QBs, should not be confused with running), "how Josh Harris has said he wants to model his organization like the Ravens...nobody is Lamar Jackson but JD can run" (what does any of that have to do with the organization and JH isn't even involved). All these arguments are constructed and I think they reflect the current media discourse very well. No one knows anything substantial because Adam Peters does not talk and it is apparently very important to him that no one else talks either.

 

 

 

“New England are content waiting to see what Washington does at #2”

 

I mean do they have any other option? A trade up to #1 or #2 is not happening. The Bears and its both need a QB and are both uninterested in trading out of those picks. New England have to be content with the QB left from Williams, Maye and Daniel’s after the first two picks. Whoever is left is a really really good consolation prize.

[CommanderInTheRye]

10 hours ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

 

Malfunction, please disregard.

 

Edited April 5 by CommanderInTheRye

[MartinC]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

But the impression is some think Maye can outright bust.  So I am gathering its a combination of this. 

 

Keim has alluded to this in different ways.  For example when Miller hit some of his concerns about Maye, Keim said he's heard the same things from people he's talked to.

 

All of them can outright bust. (I know you know this @Skinsinparadise.)

 

I’d be slightly concerned if we were taking the guy we think has the highest floor at #2 overall. My view is when you are picking a QB this high (or anywhere for that matter) I’d swing for the guy with the highest ceiling unless there were factors that made you really really question if he can get to that ceiling.

[Warhead36]

Just now, MartinC said:

 

All of them can outright bust. (I know you know this @Skinsinparadise.)

 

I’d be slightly concerned if we were taking the guy we think has the highest floor at #2 overall. My view is when you are picking a QB this high (or anywhere for that matter) I’d swing for the guy with the highest ceiling unless there were factors that made you really really question if he can get to that ceiling.

Exactly. Swing for the fences. 
 

Im even ok with Maye sitting for a year if need be. 

[Llevron]

I think JP and Keim (amount others) both make a valid point about the pressure to sack %. People are looking at the number and seeing that it’s high completely without context. Without actually looking at everything in totality you don’t know if it’s really as big a deal as it seems. Apparently they have both looked at all of the sacks taken and come away with the opinion that it’s not as big a deal as it seems on paper. Keim even specifically says he spoke to people who are NFL coaches/FO that have told them it’s not concerning. I do find it odd that we are going out of our way to diminish everything these guys say in regards to this without actually adding any context. Seems biased to me. I wanna know he context. 
 

I found this cut up of all his pass and running plays. Even the failed ones (so it includes all his sacks). Judge what you can for yourself if interested. I haven’t watched it yet but when I get free time I think I will. 
 

 

 

[Est.1974]

8 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Im even ok with Maye sitting for a year if need be. 

Really, that’s madness 

[mac8887]

This is the game that made me really jump on the JJ bandwagon. He was so accurate. He moved so well in the pocket, buying himself time. Foot work looked great. Made the easy ones look easy. Had some nice high low nfl concepts that he threw well. Had some nice tight window throws. He looked fast running the ball. 
 

I think JJ has the highest floor out of all the QBs coming out this year. I also don’t see anything that would limit his ceiling either. Hes already hitting the High/low reads that you see in every nfl offense and he throws the tight window, anticipation throws, over the middle really well.

Edited April 5 by mac8887

[cakmoney61]

13 hours ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

JJ is not a high first round pick. That is the most ridiculous **** I’ve ever seen. You do not have a stud quarterback and then not let him throw the ****ing football. The reason they didn’t let him throw more is because he ain’t that great.

Harbaugh trusted his defense and his running game more than JJ.  But we are suppose to believe that JJ is a top-2 QB in this year's draft.  Humph...it doesn't add up...literally.

[mac8887]

1 minute ago, cakmoney61 said:

Harbaugh trusted his defense and his running game more than JJ.  But we are suppose to believe that JJ is a top-2 QB in this year's draft.  Humph...it doesn't add up...literally.

JJ got to sit for like 8 quarters of play time because his team was smoking the other teams. JJ was the best qb in CFB on third and forth down with 6 or more yards to gain. He also had more throws against top 25 defenses than any other qb in college football. I don’t think it was that Harbaugh didn’t trust his qb, it’s more likely that the team had found a formula to win a national championship and stuck with it. JJ was better on third and 4th down and under pressure than all the other QBs coming out statically.

[skinsfan66]

6 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

JJ got to sit for like 8 quarters of play time because his team was smoking the other teams. JJ was the best qb in CFB on third and forth down with 6 or more yards to gain. He also had more throws against top 25 defenses than any other qb in college football. I don’t think it was that Harbaugh didn’t trust his qb, it’s more likely that the team had found a formula to win a national championship and stuck with it. JJ was better on third and 4th down and under pressure than all the other QBs coming out statically.

 I agree it is the style that Harbaugh wants to play and believes in to win and not that J.J. cannot do it. It's kind of like Lamar and the debate here about winning player of the year and not throwing for 4,000 yards. He didn't because his coach believes in the run and great D. It's still a run first approach for the Harbaughs and they are going to coach that way. It's not going to surprise me if the Chargers go to run first even with Herbert there? He will build the D, Draft a couple TE's get good W.R.'s, RB's but not great ones, build the lines. 

 

[BMagic]

The P2S ratio has been beaten to death. The more concerning stat imo is the amount of throws when moved off the initial spot, vs the amount of scrambles.

 

 

[CommanderInTheRye]

8 minutes ago, BMagic said:

The P2S ratio has been beaten to death. The more concerning stat imo is the amount of throws when moved off the initial spot, vs the amount of scrambles.

 

 

 

Great insight and fascinating tweets.

 

In fact, it was so topical and on point that I assumed @Skinsinparadise was the author, at first. Which is about as high of a compliment as I could possibly give.

 

Very belated welcome to the forum, and please post more often.

[BMagic]

8 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

Great insight and fascinating tweets.

 

In fact, it was so topical and on point that I assumed @Skinsinparadise was the author, at first. Which is about as high of a compliment as I could possibly give.

 

Very belated welcome to the forum, and please post more often.

 

The tweeter is actually a Bears fan who has been defending their Caleb pick vs. the ESPN hype of Daniels. Thus, he's been caught in the crossfire of the Maye/Daniels debate.

 

[Warhead36]

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

Really, that’s madness 

I thought so at first too, but I want a QB here for the long run. Like, 10+ years. And the more I look at it, the more I see QBs that sit early and end up having a ton of success. But I'd also prefer if he started because ultimately I'm a guy who believes you get better by playing, and there is just no redeeming quality in watching Mariota play.

 

I don't think Maye will end up sitting the entire year anyway though. Most likely we start like 2-5 and Mariota struggles and after a mid season bye we hand the reigns to Maye.

 

Also, Maye has a bit of a history of doing really well after sitting. He essentially sat for two years before his first season of college ball(senior year of HS was destroyed by Covid, and he redshirted his freshman year at UNC). And that first year in college he was awesome. Then fell off last year because of a new system and the team around him sucking.

[Est.1974]

I don’t want to give a QB a 25mil signing bonus within a fully guaranteed deal of 40mil to then sit for a year. 
 

That has to be considered a massive risk.

 

You pick a player at #2 that will start week 1.
 

 

[cakmoney61]

Now I'm back to being concerned that neither Maye nor Daniels is anything special.  And IMHO JJ is not an option at #2.  I've gone from Maye to Daniels to nobody to Daniels to nobody.  It's starting to look like the wrong year to have the #2 pick if you need a QB.  I'm not being convinced that anyone is good.  The negatives about Maye and Daniels are strong from those who oppose them. 

 

There is a lot of "all or nothing" and very little "I'd be elated with either."  It's very exhausting.

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, cakmoney61 said:

Now I'm back to being concerned that neither Maye nor Daniels is anything special.  And IMHO JJ is not an option at #2.  I've gone from Maye to Daniels to nobody to Daniels to nobody.  It's starting to look like the wrong year to have the #2 pick if you need a QB.  I'm not being convinced that anyone is good.  The negatives about Maye and Daniels are strong from those who oppose them. 

 

There is a lot of "all or nothing" and very little "I'd be elated with either."  It's very exhausting.

If you're not excited about this crop of QBs than you'll NEVER be excited. Realistically its as good a crop as you're gonna find. Three QBs will go 1-2-3, a 4th likely top 5, and there's a chance a 5th could go top 10 if not top 15(top 10 would require a trade up). And they're all very highly touted. Mutliple Heisman winners, National Championship winners etc. 

[cakmoney61]

1 minute ago, Warhead36 said:

If you're not excited about this crop of QBs than you'll NEVER be excited. Realistically its as good a crop as you're gonna find. Three QBs will go 1-2-3, a 4th likely top 5, and there's a chance a 5th could go top 10 if not top 15(top 10 would require a trade up). And they're all very highly touted. Mutliple Heisman winners, National Championship winners etc. 

I appreciate you talking so positively about the draft class, but i have heard (and read) much more negative rhetoric than positive.  Am I wrong.

[Warhead36]

Just now, cakmoney61 said:

I appreciate you talking so positively about the draft class, but i have heard (and read) much more negative rhetoric than positive.  Am I wrong.

There are negative reports about every prospect every year. In aggregate this is an outstanding class of prospects. Of course nothing is guaranteed and they can all bust, but without the power of hindsight this is the type of class you dream of when you're a QB needy team picking at the top.

[Kalu44]

7 minutes ago, cakmoney61 said:

Now I'm back to being concerned that neither Maye nor Daniels is anything special.  And IMHO JJ is not an option at #2.  I've gone from Maye to Daniels to nobody to Daniels to nobody.  It's starting to look like the wrong year to have the #2 pick if you need a QB.  I'm not being convinced that anyone is good.  The negatives about Maye and Daniels are strong from those who oppose them. 

 

There is a lot of "all or nothing" and very little "I'd be elated with either."  It's very exhausting.

Maybe Peters feels the same way? Perhaps he identifies his own Brock Purdy in the later rounds (Pratt), and just takes a sure thing like Alt at #2. Or maybe it’s Alt and a trade back into the 1st for Penix Jr. Who knows, but you’re right - it’s all exhausting.

[Warhead36]

1 minute ago, Kalu44 said:

Maybe Peters feels the same way? Perhaps he identifies his own Brock Purdy in the later rounds (Pratt), and just takes a sure thing like Alt at #2. Or maybe it’s Alt and a trade back into the 1st for Penix Jr. Who knows, but you’re right - it’s all exhausting.

We're taking a QB at 2. Its a certainty.

[WashingtonRedWolves]

Just now, Kalu44 said:

Maybe Peters feels the same way? Perhaps he identifies his own Brock Purdy in the later rounds (Pratt), and just takes a sure thing like Alt at #2. Or maybe it’s Alt and a trade back into the 1st for Penix Jr. Who knows, but you’re right - it’s all exhausting.

That is such a huge gamble for someone in his first year that clearly needs a franchise QB. I will say though that Penix could definitely emerge as the hidden gem of this draft but his injury history is too much of a red flag for me

[Warhead36]

Just now, WashingtonRedWolves said:

That is such a huge gamble for someone in his first year that clearly needs a franchise QB. I will say though that Penix could definitely emerge as the hidden gem of this draft but his injury history is too much of a red flag for me

If Penix goes to a good team like Miami or Dallas he'll play well and have a good career. I don't think he has the ceiling of a guy who can elevate a franchise but he's a polished quality QB. But he needs to go to the right team. If he goes to like the Raiders as rumored he'll suck.