The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Koolblue13]

2 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

I cannot remember how fast he was, and freely admit I had a hard time evaluating him, my memory was "very elusive, elite tackle breaker and avoider, but elite speed? I don't think he had that, I think he was probably a 4.7 or 4.8 guy, but honestly, I was 10 when he debut'd). 

I grew up in Philly and I'm 50, so I watched every game of his. Randall is GOAT at that style at a time it didn't exist. Watch the video I posted.

[FootballZombie]

I can't explain the fear playing against the hyper mobile QBs put in me when playing video games.

 

Haunted my dreams. lol

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

Hot take… Drake Maye is a better scrambler than Jayden Daniels.

[FootballZombie]

Just now, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Hot take… Drake Maye is a better scrambler than Jayden Daniels.

 

That's not a hot take. Dem wings are bland as heck.

 

Scrambling is moving around behind the line of scrimmage to buy time and Jayden does not do a lot of that.

 

JD is better than Maye at sliding around inside the pocket and if it gets to the point that he has to bail he's running rather than scrambling. Maye has a much more proven ability to run around behind the LOS and buy time after breaking the pocket.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

He’s also a smarter, more efficient runner when he does take off but getting a first down and then falling down or getting out of bounds just isnt as exciting as watching Daniels run and a lot of people confuse exciting with being a good quarterback.

[CommanderInTheRye]

1 hour ago, OtisDriftwood25 said:

Daniels is -180 odds on both DK and FD FYI.

 

What does that mean? 

 

If I bet 100 bucks how much do I get back?

 

*Anyone who knows can answer. TIA

[FootballZombie]

10 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

He’s also a smarter, more efficient runner when he does take off but getting a first down and then falling down or getting out of bounds just isnt as exciting as watching Daniels run and a lot of people confuse exciting with being a good quarterback.

 

Wha?

 

Maye's film is car crash testing site.

Maye is just as bad as JD at protecting himself while running. Man could try out for a circus trapeze act with his aerial tumbling display. He will very often willingly take on contact and multiple defenders for no reason.

 

I will say its not as much of a problem for him at the NFL level as no one would project him to have as many carries as JD, but other than that...

 

 

Edited March 20 by FootballZombie

[redskinss]

13 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

If I bet 100 bucks how much do I get back?

 

Nothing.

😉

[Voice_of_Reason]

Man, Bram and Callow have drunken (drank? What’s the right grammar here) the Daniels koolaid to a level I wouldn’t think possible.  Callie thinks is a sure thing and any other move is stupid.  He’s said he is going to be very disappointed if we draft somebody else after Daniels rushes for 2000 yards and passes for 2000 yards.  Seriously.  (And that would be just about the same number of yards Sam passed for last year so I’m not entirely sure they were doing the math on that one.

 

Callow was talking about “just go with the momentum.  Daniels and McCarthy have all the momentum.  Maye is going the opposite way.  
 

It’s mind boggling.   Not that I’m remotely anti-Daniels.  But they’re so in the tank for him it’s just bizarre.

 

But Bram also believes the Steelers are going to pick up Field’s $22m 5th year option. 
 

So.  I think they done gone and lost their damn minds. 

[redskinss]

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Callow was talking about “just go with the momentum.  Daniels and McCarthy have all the momentum.  Maye is going the opposite way.  

 

Just go with the momentum?

 

Talk about a stupid ****ing way to pick your quarterback. 

 

That right there puts their credibility at zero.

[illone]

17 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

What does that mean? 

 

If I bet 100 bucks how much do I get back?

 

*Anyone who knows can answer. TIA

 

 

-180 means you need to risk $180 to win back $100. (Total payout $280)

 

Using the same odds on a $100 bet would yield $55.56 for a total payout of $155.56.

 

Current odds for Drake Maye #2 overall pick: +130

 

This just means the sportsbooks have Jayden Daniels as the favorite right now to be drafted by Washington.

[Dah-Dee]

Interesting article today from Galko at CBS Sports:

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2024-nfl-draft-inside-jayden-daniels-historic-improvement-and-why-teams-are-confident-hell-hit-his-ceiling/

 

2024 NFL Draft: Inside Jayden Daniels' historic improvement and why teams are confident he'll hit his ceiling

 

Burrow and Daniels are the only two quarterbacks in the last 20 years (minimum 400 drop backs) that increased their adjusted completion percentage by 4% or more AND their yards per attempt by 3.0 or more. And beyond just those two metrics, Daniels also improved in his accuracy downfield, ball placement across the field, decision-making in the red zone and decision-making as a runner.

	10+ YARD COMPLETION %	ON-TARGET %	YARDS PER ATTEMPT	RED ZONE TD %	SCRAMBLES	RUSH YARDS BEFORE CONTACT
2022	46.9	45.6	7.2	13.6	74	1.9
2023	58.8	61.8	11.1	29.3	58	4.0

[illone]

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

8 minutes ago, illone said:

 

 

-180 means you need to risk $180 to win back $100. (Total payout $280)

 

Using the same odds on a $100 bet would yield $55.56 for a total payout of $155.56.

 

Current odds for Drake Maye #2 overall pick: +130

 

This just means the sportsbooks have Jayden Daniels as the favorite right now to be drafted by Washington.

So this is fairly interesting actually.  
 

Vegas wants you to lose.  That’s how they have wave pools in the desert.  
 

Do they have inside information Daniels is actually the favorite?  I’d guess absolutely not.  If Keim and Standig are saying they are totally tight lipped I doubt the information is getting to Vegas.
 

But by putting Daniels as the favorite they’re playing into the narrative pushed by Mel, his hairdo and company.  
 

And they benefit if that narrative is wrong assuming more people bet on that than on one of the other choices.  

 

Interering.  Very interesting. 
 

(Means nothing, though) 
 

[Dah-Dee]

Sorry if this was already posted, but Tim Hasselbeck was pretty definitive this morning on ESPN: Drake Maye is QB1 in this draft:

 

https://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=39764662

[RWJ]

Personal opinion and have said it before and it's been said plenty of time.  Great talent, great IQ, great everything but his frame and build will do him in unfortunately.  He may have 1-3 years at best in the NFL and I hate to use a onetime NFL HC's analysis stands for Not For Long for Daniels. Sadly, he'll never be able to hold weight needed to play in the Pros.  Nothing can change that except for Steroids which are illegal.  If we draft him, I root for him as I will whoever it is but again, sadly he won't be around long.  

[BayouBrave86]

1 hour ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Hot take… Drake Maye is a better scrambler than Jayden Daniels.

 ok 

[SoCalSkins]

7 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

So this is fairly interesting actually.  
 

Vegas wants you to lose.  That’s how they have wave pools in the desert.  
 

Do they have inside information Daniels is actually the favorite?  I’d guess absolutely not.  If Keim and Standig are saying they are totally tight lipped I doubt the information is getting to Vegas.
 

But by putting Daniels as the favorite they’re playing into the narrative pushed by Mel, his hairdo and company.  
 

And they benefit if that narrative is wrong assuming more people bet on that than on one of the other choices.  

 

Interering.  Very interesting. 
 

(Means nothing, though) 
 

Vegas wants even bets across all options so they are not exposed. If all bets are relatively evenly spread cross all option Vegas makes a small amount because they don’t payout the same as they take in. Those small amounts across a lot of bets adds up fast. A movement in the line is response to the betting behavior or anticipated betting behavior of the betting public to maintain betting on each option. It doesn’t reflect who Vegas thinks will be the pick it’s designed to get bets on each option. As of this moment the betting public thinks it’s more likely Daniels at 2 than Maye. 
 

 

Edited March 20 by SoCalSkins

[Dah-Dee]

I'm really annoyed that nobody else (that I've noticed) has commented on the set-in-concrete fact that JJ McCarthy is actually Sean Astin from "Rudy" - which means he's also Samwise from LOTR.

 

I ain't having no hobbit QB my Commanders dammit.

 

Wait. So if JJ is Sam, then JD5 is Jack Skellington. Who's Caleb? WHO'S DRAKE??

 

😵

Edited March 20 by Dah-Dee

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

3 minutes ago, BayouBrave86 said:

 ok 

[Dah-Dee]

I figured out who Caleb is in my weird little movie world:

 

 

[illone]

2 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Interering.  Very interesting. 
 

(Means nothing, though) 

 

 

I havent tracked these odds over the years, but I'd venture that Draft odds are NOT sharp. The Sportsbooks could very well base their odds on prevailing media opinion which is lead by the guy you mentioned, Kiper.

 

That, or they aggregate the top 50 mock drafts and run an average.  Definitely not exact science by any means. It's just Vegas being vegas, they will take a bet on pretty much anything.

 

For what it's worth, the odds I posted are from Fan Duel.

 

Draft Kings has JD at -175 odds, and maye at +135 (both for #2 pick of course).

 

No WAY I'd place a dollar on JD in this scenario. Not worth the risk, and I just don't see this staff valuing him, but that's been discussed ad nauseam.  Maye is definitely worth a flyer if you think he is the pick. 

 

if anything this is more proof how tight lipped this staff has been throughout the process. No leaks, no rumors. Nothing. Radio silence.  These odds reflect it.

 

 

[BurgundyBooger]

10 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Personal opinion and have said it before and it's been said plenty of time.  Great talent, great IQ, great everything but his frame and build will do him in unfortunately.  He may have 1-3 years at best in the NFL and I hate to use a onetime NFL HC's analysis stands for Not For Long for Daniels. Sadly, he'll never be able to hold weight needed to play in the Pros.  Nothing can change that except for Steroids which are illegal.  If we draft him, I root for him as I will whoever it is but again, sadly he won't be around long.  

I agree. I’d be concerned for him if we had Fort Knox as our offensive line, which we do not. Without the additional weight to cushion impacts against his bones, joints, and organs, injuries will be reoccurring and stunt his career.

[Ghost of]

12 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

I'm really annoyed that nobody else (that I've noticed) has commented on the set-in-concrete fact that JJ McCarthy is actually Sean Astin from "Rudy" - which means he's also Samwise from LOTR.

 

I ain't having no hobbit QB my Commanders dammit.

 

Wait. So if JJ is Sam, then JD5 is Jack Skellington. Who's Caleb? WHO'S DRAKE??

 

😵

Samwise carried Frodo the rest of the way up Mt. Doom.  He stabbed Shelob and rescued Frodo. That's the kind of guy you want on your team. 

[mac8887]

3 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

No.  So many QBs bust because there are 10 different things you have to do well in order to be a passable QB, and most people are good at 1 or 2 of them:

 

1. Baseline physical tools which makes you one of the best athletes in the world. This includes some speed and arm talent. 

2. Size: With a few exceptions, need to be at least 6-feet tall.  Preferably 6-3 or more.

3. Accuracy and ability to throw with anticipation. 

4. Ability to process information as fast as a super computer

5. Ability to retain information like a data bank

6. Toughness to get knocked down over and over and get back up.  Or know that you're going to get smacked in the mouth and just stand there and take it to deliver a pass.

7. Leadership ability to get your teammates to believe in you

8. Communicate quickly during games

9. Ability not to panic in high pressure situations

10. Ability not to get distracted by the outside world and focus on your job.  

11. Work ethic to keep grinding on film and in the weight room.  First in, last out mentality.  

 

Finding somebody which has all 11 of these traits is damn near impossible.  Toss in it's impossible to figure out some of this stuff because college offenses stink, it gets harder. And teams don't have unliimted time with players to get to know them.

 

It's a crap shoot.  It will always be a crap shoot.  Which is why you do the evaluation and come up with who you think has the highest ceiling and you take a shot.  It probably won't work.  But you've got to keep taking shots.

Coaching and situation and development have just as much importance in whether a qb succeeds or not. It’s why every qb that plays under Andy Reid has tremendous success. It’s why Joe Gibbs was able to win 3 Super Bowls with 3 separate QBs. Guys like Geno and Baker fell flat, but after years working on their craft and receiving knowledge from other coaches, and developing, they were finally able to succeed. A guy like Warner took years to develop into being who he was, played in several different leagues.

 

Guys like Mariota and Sam Darnold, Mason Rudolph, keep getting jobs because these coaches want that veteran guy in the QB room to give the younger the knowledge they’ve learned, and because these coaches trust them more than a younger late round pick to be able to keep a team competitive if the starter goes down with injury, or just shows he’s not ready to play.

 

A minor league system would be extremely valuable for developing these young guys, especially QBs. Look at what happened with Howell. He spent an entire year getting very few reps in practice, and none in games til the last week of the season. Just imagine how different it might of been last year if he had an entire year of taking 1st team reps in practice, and getting live game reps in a “d league” using the same playbook that the NFL team uses.

 

I was listening to some sports podcast earlier today and they said they had asked Vrabel how Levis was progressing while they were playing the last time the titans played in London, Vrabel told the reporter that he didn’t know, because there wasn’t enough reps in practice to really work on developing him. Those reps had to go to Tannehil who was starting at the time.

 

I believe if each team had their own minor league team that ran the same offensive and defensive playbooks, learning the schemes and techniques the coaches use, it would greatly reduce the bust rate at every position, especially qb.