The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[HigSkin]

6 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

 

Wow! I would NEVER have guessed that. I always thought Raiders or Minnesota were his preference.

 

I haven't heard that podcast yet, great info to have. (Do you have a link for it,  if so would you post it? TIA)

 

If that report is accurate, then it makes his agent's unprofessional behavior Wednesday night all the more aggregious.

 

He is an absolute liability to Jayden's career. You praise publicly, and you argue privately. We should never have found out that they had an issue with the group interview format.

 

I would have fired him on the spot, if he represented my interests, and did that without consulting with me first.

 

Then again, if Jayden approved it, or worse, asked him to do it, he's not the guy I want leading my team.

 

 

 

 

 

Can't post the link right now but go to Keims twitter page.  It's there.  🙂

[CommanderInTheRye]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

Florio is such a joke lolol. He has no sources whatsoever. Didn't he say we were the favorites to hire Bellicheck?

 

 

Florio is definitely a joke.

 

But it turns out that it's possible he had a source on the Belichick rumors as it was recently reported that Magic Johnson was in favor of hiring the grimacing toad before Josh Harris shot the terrible idea down.

[srtman04]

4 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

 

Florio is definitely a joke.

 

But it turns out that it's possible he had a source on the Belichick rumors as it was recently reported that Magic Johnson was in favor of hiring the grimacing toad before Josh Harris shot the terrible idea down.

 

Thank God for Josh Harris.   

[CommanderInTheRye]

4 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

 

Can't post the link right now but go to Keims twitter page.  It's there.  🙂

 

 

I think I found it.

 

This is the most recent podcast for those interested...

 

 

Bb

 

[Skinsinparadise]

35 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

I get it on the metrics being quite fallible. I'm just saying that together with what we already know about Daniels (slight frame, will take big hits), this article results in way too many flashing red lights on Daniels to suit my comfort level on risk. At this point, with the info we have, for me it's pretty clear that the potential-bust warnings on Daniels greatly outnumber those for Maye.

 

I've said before and still think Daniels is fantastic, love watching him play, just want to watch him... at a distance. Like in Minnesota. Whether we draft him or not though, I'll hope for LSU-type highlights and an injury-free career.

 

I've read and digested as much of anyone here on the QBs, including the metrics.  

 

I just don't find a definitive take on EITHER QB with metrics. Don't get me wrong I can slam either one.  But if I am being fair and true to my own perspective neither  can be written off via analytics.  And I don't find metrics just in general to be the all and end all.  And context needs to be factored.  For example some throw out Daniels improvement on pressure to sack this past year versus on the aggregate for his whole career.  For me the improvement was a good sign. Ditto when I saw some of those that were considered sacks but were about designed runs being blown up so that context meant more to me when I watched him closely.

 

But just in general with Daniels either people buy the improvement or they don't from last year.  Warren Sharp is a metrics fiend, and he is super negative on Maye as a prospect using numbers to back his argument.  Ditto the Football Outsiders dude.  Both prefer Daniels.

 

But again with Maye factor context.  Some of his struggles were Wrs not seperating enough.  Some of it was based on him having really 3-4 bad games that messed up some of his aggregate numbers.  You take those 3-4 games out than Maye 2023 is about equal to Maye 2022.

 

Reason clearly why these scouts take the time and watch these players and talk to them versus just read PFF charts is you need to get the whole picture.  And as one of the PFF guys made this case once, you can find bad comps and match the numbers to whatever prospect you want to slam them if you take the time to do it.

 

So I take all of it the anti-Maye stuff and Daniels with a grain of salt.  And specific to Daniels if I don't look at his last season as what's to come and instead average all his seasons together -- then he's beyond a crap prospect.  But that's a subjective take.  Maybe his one season was an outlier BS season. Maybe it wasn't.  That's for Peters to figure out.   

 

For Maye I often like to do the reverse, use his aggregate stats and play down his last season. I know because I debated the Daniels people a number of times so I used the stats that are most favorable to me to make the argument than Maye trumps Daniels.

 

Edited April 19 by Skinsinparadise

[CommanderInTheRye]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I've read and digested as much of anyone here on the QBs, including the metrics.  

 

I just don't find a definitive take on EITHER QB with metrics. Don't get me wrong I can slam either one.  But if I am being fair and true to my own perspective neither  can be written off via analytics.  And I don't find metrics just in general to be the all and end all.  And context needs to be factored.  For example some throw out Daniels improvement on pressure to sack and aggregate his whole career.  OK so to me that's being stuck and a metric and context be damned.  Ditto when I saw some of those that were considered sacks but were about designed runs being blown up.

 

But just in general with Daniels either people buy they improvement or they don't from last year.  Warren Sharp is a metrics fiend, and he is super negative on Maye as a prospect using numbers to back his argument.  Ditto the Football Outsiders dude.

 

But again with Maye factor context.  Some of his struggles were Wrs not sperating enough.  Some of it was based on him having really 3-4 bad games that messed up some of his aggregate numbers.

 

Reason clearly why these scouts take the time and watch these players and talk to them versus just read PFF charts is you need to get the whole picture.  And as one of the PFF guys made this case once, you can find bad comps and match the numbers to whatever prospect you want to slam if you take the time.

 

So I take all of it the anti-Maye stuff and Daniels with a grain of salt.  And specific to Daniels if I don't look at his season as what's to come and instead average all his seasons together -- then he's beyond a crap prospect.  But that's a subjective take.  Maybe his one season was an outlier BS season. Maybe it wasn't.  That's for Peters to figure out.   

 

For Maye I often like to do the reverse, use his aggregate stats and play down his last season. I know because I debate the Daniels people a number of times so I used the stats that are most favorable to me. 

 

 

The other thing we should keep in mind about metrics/analytics is that when queried by Keim about his view of Jaydens PTS ratio Quinn responded, " For me analytics are on tap, but not on top".

 

Meaning that he considers them (as he should), but he does not view them as absolutely determinative of a prospects future NFL success.

[Warhead36]

I think its foolish to just assume, because Daniels took such a huge jump in year 5, that he's going to continue to ascend at the same pace. I'm not saying he won't get better(he pretty much has to because no 24 year old should be a finished product), but the big time jump in his play is more because he's simply older/more experienced than his peers and played with relatively much better quality of players. He won't have those same things(relatively)in the NFL. He'll be the  young kid(while still being older than most kids), and he won't have the same way better than opponents supporting cast.

[SkinsFTW]

19 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Okay, it’s now 99% we take Daniels.

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I think its foolish to just assume, because Daniels took such a huge jump in year 5, that he's going to continue to ascend at the same pace. I'm not saying he won't get better(he pretty much has to because no 24 year old should be a finished product), but the big time jump in his play is more because he's simply older/more experienced than his peers and played with relatively much better quality of players. He won't have those same things(relatively)in the NFL. He'll be the  young kid(while still being older than most kids), and he won't have the same way better than opponents supporting cast.

 

Be impossible to improve a heck of a lot from his numbers and play last year.  I don't think anyone is making that case.

 

For anyone of us here to say that was Daniels' peak or it was an outlier season or the best is yet to come or whatever -- is of course a subjective take.  Even the anayltics types admit their numbers have failed them.  So whether its Warren Sharp putting Drake Maye out of his top 10 and touting Daniels early in this process or Aaron Schatz from Football Outsiders likewise pushing Daniels.  Or the PFF guys pushing Maye.  They are are pushing a narrative that goes beyond just the stats.

 

We likewise have our own narratives for why this player or that player was successful or not.  But one of the reasons why its of course so hard to guess QBs is ---we can be as forceful with our points as we like but we are all guessing to some extent as to these narratives as to whether our takes.

 

It's the FO's job to shift through these narratives and make their best guess. 

Edited April 19 by Skinsinparadise

[skinny21]

39 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

That's one of my issues as well. Daniels fails like every advanced metric.

 

Maye has his plusses and positives, but his advanced metrics come out very favorably. Its just a question of whether you can polish and clean up his issues.

You keep saying this, but it’s not really true, is it?  He’s near or at the top in a number of advanced metrics that have been posted here.  Now, with that said, he looks bad in a number of metrics in a way that’s pretty scary.

 

Personally, looking at his negatives, I’m really worried about some things, somewhat concerned about some, and not too worried about others.

 

Really worried:  frame, taking unnecessary hits (though he improved here in the 2nd half of ‘23), throwing with anticipation.

 

Somewhat concerned:  p2s ratio, explosion in production, lack of creativity, his lack of velocity on out routes, paucity of throws to the middle of the field, number of scrambles turning into runs vs passes.  Aside from the velocity issue, the rest of these could potentially be explained (ie were possibly exacerbated) in part by coaching/stylistic/schematic factors.  Depending on how they’re addressed/explained by Daniels and his previous coaches, my concern level could be moved up or down.

 

Not too worried about:  his demeanor/shyness, his mom (lol), his agent, his age.

 

Overall, my biggest question becomes “what made him so much better in ‘23”?  Depending on that answer, plus the intangibles our FO (hopefully) is able to suss out, he could be qb 1 for me, he could be qb 5.  Right now, Maye is my number one (ignoring Williams) because his red flags aren’t nearly as concerning or numerous, and those flags are all intangibles that can be improved/worked around (vs Daniels’ size).

Edited April 19 by skinny21

[The Consigliere]

11 hours ago, SkinsFTW said:

 

Is it just a coincidence that about 99% of the Daniels fanboys joined since January?

 

This one just spawned in the past few hours.

 

It's a conspiracy!!!

It's a bit weird. Otoh, I know I posted on the Chelsea Board when Pulisic was there a little, same with Leeds when Aaronson, Adams and McKennie went there. I suppose its just weird in that you're not really sure:

 

Are these guys big fans of the player and just following where he might go, or fans of the team who are also fans of the player and the player and rebuild has them excited? Generally not sure, whereas when I was on Chelsea, or Leeds board, I was always quite up front in being a USMNT fan, and hoping my guys helped those teams (until I learned to entirely loathe each of those fanbases lol). 

[skinny21]

8 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

That's one of my issues as well. Daniels fails like every advanced metric.

 

Maye has his plusses and positives, but his advanced metrics come out very favorably. Its just a question of whether you can polish and clean up his issues.

You keep saying this, but it’s not really true, is it?  He’s near or at the top in a number of advanced metrics that have been posted here.  Now, with that said, he looks bad in a number of metrics in a way that’s pretty scary.

 

Personally, looking at his negatives, I’m really worried about some things, somewhat concerned about some, and not too worried about others.

 

Really worried:  frame, taking unnecessary hits (though he improved here in the 2nd half of ‘23), throwing with anticipation.

 

Somewhat concerned:  p2s ratio, explosion in production, lack of creativity, his lack of velocity on out routes, paucity of throws to the middle of the field, number of scrambles turning into runs vs passes.  Aside from the velocity issue, the rest of these could potentially be explained (ie were possibly exacerbated) in part by coaching/stylistic/schematic factors.  Depending on how they’re addressed/explained by Daniels and his previous coaches, my concern level could be moved up or down.

 

Not too worried about:  his demeanor/shyness, his mom (lol), his agent, his age.

 

Overall, my biggest question becomes “what made him so much better in ‘23”?  Depending on that answer, plus the intangibles our FO (hopefully) is able to suss out, he could be qb 1 for me, he could be qb 5.  Right now, Maye is my number one (ignoring Williams) because his red flags aren’t nearly as concerning or numerous, and those flags are all intangibles that can be improved/worked around (vs Daniels’ size).

[Warhead36]

He fails metrics like pressure to sack, throwing down the middle, and a whole bunch of others.

 

The only metrics I see him doing well in are ones that you could easily attribute to the talent of his WRs.

[clskinsfan]

Apparently Daniels' agent liked and reposted a tweet saying they are unhappy with the process Washington used the other night. Top Golf and all of that. Leads me to believe Daniels himself wasnt happy about it. To me it makes what they did even better. Make the players show their true feelings. Not really sure it matters in the end. But imo this is a plus for Maye.

 

 

[Kalu44]

 

😆

[SkinsFTW]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Thanks this is sort of the summary below.  People tend to overreact to the negative things said.  Here things have gotten so monolithic about both QBs that i think it will piss some people off.  But they always talk about upside and downside.  I am gathering that's how scouts roll -- its not all love or all hate but what's the full picture.  And of course not every scout-every team sees the world the same way.  

 

And the downside from my past experience with posting stuff like this -- it drives some fans of the players nuts and then I get all the diatribes about McGinn is a bad dude and how idiotic scouts are or dishonest and implications that a few on this board while we don't claim to be GMs and say we are aren't professionals but we also suggest that the professionals aren't really that good so in effect we are defacto smarter than them so hint hint we indeed should be running a FO, etc.

 

So it makes a bit of a miserable ride for me.    Never fun to post things and get blasted for the post.    So selfishly I'll post this part for now.  I'll consider the rest.  But I know if I post the positive and negative takes -- some of the pro Maye people will cling to the positive and clown on the negative and some of the Daniels people would do the reverse.  Feels like though we've swung weeks back to some of the Daniels people going to an extreme on the subject to now a hard turn the other way as to the extreme for Maye.

 

Personally, I am good with either one albiet prefer Maye.

 

 

 

 

 

This is pretty hilarious. Talk about hindsight.

 

I'd like to see the update to this that'll never happen in 3 years.

[The Consigliere]

11 hours ago, TurningTheCorner said:

I’d be thrilled with it! Just remember that Allen was hardly great his rookie year and Maye is going to need that type of patience. Will be well worth it though

See I feel the opposite about Allen. Coming into the league he was woefully inaccurate in college, and really just seemed like a cannon armed, athletic doofus, the kind of friendlier version of Jay Schreoder with more meat on his bones. 

 

He came in, turned in a 53% rate, not great, but darn close to his college #, so not a lot of degradation from college, 10-12 picks, started about 2/3's of the season....after this, I would say, no, he wasn't great, but looking at what he did, I came in thinking he was 1000% a bust, I had not seen a guy as inaccurate as he was in college, be productive in the NFL since the eighties or nineties so I thought it was insane...but he looked competent if not good, and the following year his accuracy jumped to better than he had ever been in college and his TD-Int ratio flipped from 50/50 or close, to 2/1 and boom, we were on. I would argue that while he wasn't good as a rookie, he also wasn't bad, he was just,adequate, to borderline adequate, especially for a guy who was barely 50% in a ---- conference against garbage players just a year earlier. He was not Zach Wilson. He could move the offense down the field. He also added 630 yards on the ground which was nuts and a huge value add for a guy w/that much to improve upon, and the team was 5-6 as a starter w/him, not too bad. 

[Skinsinparadise]

54 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

I personally don’t mind that piece too much - qb evaluation is so dang difficult and the league’s track record is shaky - as much as how entrenchment has lead some to turn on any and all sources/resources that disagree with their take, including many that we (the board) have lauded/referenced in the past.  

And the downstream effect of that entrenchment could quite possibly lead to dissatisfaction with our FO along with a focus on picking apart the rookie (if it’s not the guy the poster(s) wanted) on game days.  I hope I’m wrong about that, because that sounds like a miserable experience when we’re looking at such a long overdue, positive position in terms of the state of the franchise.  Of course, it’s human nature - it sucks to be wrong and it’s great to be right, lol.

 

I don't mind the its a crap shoot argument and don't trust the professionals. 

 

But some of the posts here basically allude to it not being a crap shoot for them and instead they got the answer.  They couch it by saying its so obvious to them so it's not a crap shoot -- but that comes off to me as just a more arrogant version of saying its crystal clear to them and others don't match their acumen.

 

I just don't see how anyone can be just absolutely sure that they are right and others who disagree are royally wrong as them making any other point other than they are better than the average personnel people at evaluations. -- not just as good but better at it. 

 

And look maybe that's true.   I just wonder why waste your time here?  The QB code hasn't been cracked yet, if they are that sure about their ability, they can make millions in the NFL. 

 

Peters ironically joked about the same subject weeks back about the diffculty of it and said hey if anyone has figured it out, call him for a job.  I am gathering some here missed that, they should be calling Commanders Park and joining the front office.

 

The heck do I know if we got some of the brightest scouting minds in the NFL right here on the board, if so how cool is that?  But if they are true fans of this team it boggles my mind why they are just debating this stuff on a fan blog.  We've been waiting to get that elusive QB forever.  If someone here thinks that they are that gifted at this, they should campaign for a job with Josh Harris.

Edited April 19 by Skinsinparadise

[Dah-Dee]

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

the big time jump in his play is more because he's simply older/more experienced than his peers and played with relatively much better quality of players.

 

I have big concerns about Daniels but this is not one of them. The average age of college football players has gotten older in recent years because of the covid year, and it'll keep getting older because of NIL - I think NIL is only going to get bigger, which will mean more money for more players, which will impact those who otherwise might declare for the NFL as underclassmen. Already, a ton of the top prospects this year are 22-24, including some of the QBs.

 

And the SEC was full of those top prospects. Even in the Alabama game, which was not Daniels' best game, he put up 382 total yards in 3 quarters with three first-round (Turner, Arnold, McKinstry) and at least one second-round (Braswell)  Alabama defenders on the field, with the most points anybody scored on them all year.  Daniels might have had a better supporting cast than some of the other QB prospects not named Penix, but the gap is not as big as some want to believe, and Daniels also played against much better competition than others. For example, LSU had the #17 strength of schedule last year (#2 in 2022); UNC was #71 - the fourth weakest among Power 5 schools (and 2 of the 3 below them were also ACC schools).

 

And don't forget, unlike Maye who had a 1,500-yard All-American RB that defenses had to account for, LSU coaches set it up so Daniels basically *was* their running game. Defenses focused on Daniels more so than with any QB not named Caleb; one SEC DC said they didn't care that Daniels had Nabers/Thomas, they still preferred Daniels throwing the ball because he gashed them so badly on the ground, it was a pick-your-poison situation.

 

So I prefer Maye but don't hate Daniels and don't see any reasonable basis for a theory that Daniels' improvement in 2023 was based primarily on his relative age/experience and supporting cast - especially with the amount of coverage/discussion out there over the last couple of years on what Daniels actually *did* to improve.

[Skinsinparadise]

11 minutes ago, SkinsFTW said:

 

This is pretty hilarious. Talk about hindsight.

 

I'd like to see the update to this that'll never happen in 3 years.

 

I don't think any scouts make the case that they cracked the QB code.  Hindsight.  Foresight.  Whatever.

 

It feels like its been cracked here.  But outside of here on this thread with some not all, its still a mystery, I don't feel too many claim otherwise.

Edited April 19 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

It’s wild to me that we legitimately have folks in their basement that think they are better suited as general managers than guys who have ate, slept, and played football since they were embryos.  The delusion is unreal.

It's not that simple. I don't have some big board in my basement that I believe draft after draft is better than the pro's boards, I don't scout hundreds of linebackers, edge rushers, DT's, and Centers etc. I'm not remotely close to that.

 

But I'm also smart enough to know that drafting Christian Ponder and EJ Manuel from FSU last decade was rage enducingly stupid. That the Trubisky love was idiotic, that Zach Wilson and Pickett were monstrously stupid picks.

 

You do not have to be a genius to understand when GM's and scouts get lost in the trees and make stupid decisions. If you have distance from this, watch long enough, read long enough, analyze data enough you can sniff out stupid pretty easily.

 

There was no universe in which Henry Ruggs should've gone ahead of CeeDee Lamb EVER. Figuring out Jefferson back then was much harder, but Ruggs vs Lamb was easy.

 

As another example, with the RB age cliff, you know, its idiotic, period to take RB's with day 1 draft capital especially day 1 draft capital at the top of drafts, period, full stop.

 

Again, am I smarter? Yes and no. There are guys that are in the league with there jobs because of connections and/or nepotism, period. We know when the coaching recycler is a mistake. There isn't a redskins fan w/a functioning brain that thought the Chargers made the right decision in hiring Turner, every last one of us with sense new after 1994-2000 that Turner was an OC period, that he simply lacked the mental make up and ability for a HC job period. The Chargers brass did not know that, we did.

 

Are we smarter about everything? No. Not even about most things, but are all the guys in the league smarter than us ---- no, and if you think so, that's appeal to authority fallacy on crack, and speaking of crack, remember the coach shooting iphone video of himself sniffing coke before a team meeting and sending it to his shady as hell GF? I remember....so no, I don't automatically defer to the genius of these guys, Gettleman, Dorsey and the rest have proven 10 times over, it's just sometimes, who you know, not what you know...step out into the world for 2 seconds, and you realize that's true everywhere, too, not just the NFL. 

[SkinsFTW]

12 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

He fails metrics like pressure to sack, throwing down the middle, and a whole bunch of others.

 

The only metrics I see him doing well in are ones that you could easily attribute to the talent of his WRs.

 

I just can't get past the fact that he's going to either run or get sacked over 50% of the time he's pressured, those are guaranteed hits he's going to take.

 

It'll be like a combo of Howell last year getting sacked 3+ times a game and also RG3 style cartoonish open field hits.

 

Teams are obviously going to try to pressure him. Completing a pass on 20-30% of those pressures ain't gonna work. Not a chance.

 

In addition, he's likely 200lbs soaking wet, doesn't anticipate or use the middle of the field. He'd have to be as clutch as Mahomes and as sturdy as Favre to make it out alive and win a lot of games.

 

And this is what they call an elite prospect? Even with average arm talent. At least Vick had a cannon, yet still couldn't win in the playoffs.

[Dah-Dee]

18 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

The only metrics I see him doing well in are ones that you could easily attribute to the talent of his WRs.

 

Here's a big one that has nothing to do with anything but the QB's ability to put the ball where it needs to be - and where Daniels matches up very very well with NFL QBs (and better than Maye at being on-target at every level of the field):

 

https://www.the33rdteam.com/what-does-accuracy-tell-us-about-the-2024-quarterback-draft-class/

What Does Accuracy Tell Us About The 2024 Quarterback Draft Class?

[excerpt]

 

For this exercise, we’ll look at completion percentage and on-target rate, as charted by Sports Info Solutions, for each depth of the field. 

 

SIS defines on-target percentage as “a pass that hits the receiver in stride, regardless of whether the pass is completed.” It’s not a perfect one-for-one stand-in for accuracy, but it paints a picture of ball placement we can use to set up a prospect’s profile.

 

Here’s a look at the 2024 class with their depth rates, completion rates and on-target rates compared to each other.

The first thing to note is how different the college and NFL games are from a depth standpoint. Only the quarterbacks listed above threw passes between 1-10 air yards on more than 40 percent of their attempts. 

 

Meanwhile, NFL quarterbacks live in this world. Among 32 qualified quarterbacks in 2023, only three were below 40 percent. The average for NFL quarterbacks last season was 47.7 percent.

 

[CommanderInTheRye]

20 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Apparently Daniels' agent liked and reposted a tweet saying they are unhappy with the process Washington used the other night. Top Golf and all of that. Leads me to believe Daniels himself wasnt happy about it. To me it makes what they did even better. Make the players show their true feelings. Not really sure it matters in the end. But imo this is a plus for Maye.

 

 

 

 

Apparently Daniels' agent liked and reposted a tweet saying they are unhappy with the process Washington used the other night...

 

For some reason I suspect you weren't on the forum Wednesday night. 😃

[jg77]

1 hour ago, RWJ said:

Agree but I hope it's Peters just like you and a host on this forum.  Others will disagree and that is understood.    

Care to elaborate, please.    

 

2024 NFL Draft: Pro execs, scouts, coaches rank and evaluate the top 20 prospects in this QB class