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2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread


zCommander
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Other stuff from Standig, he repeats Hamilton, London.  He echoes Keim about possibly taking one of the three O lineman if they fall.  He throws Jordan Davis as a darkhorse but the way he talked about that it feels like he was making his own take there versus it being something he heard.

 

 

 

Breer

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/04/25/mmqb-nfl-draft-preview-rumors-32-teams-jaguars-shad-khan

New York Jets

First round: No. 4, No. 10
Total picks: 9
Needs: WR, edge rusher, CB, RB, interior DL, LB

What you need to know: Everyone has an edge rusher, corner or receiver going here. But there’s persistent buzz connecting GM Joe Douglas to Ekwonu (and potentially even Neal), which puts where the team stands on its 2020 first-round pick, Mekhi Becton, in the foreground. Ekwonu is 100% Douglas’s type of player and has the athleticism to thrive in Mike LaFleur’s offense. And if it’s not Ekwonu, then Thibodeaux, Walker and Gardner could all be in play at No. 4. At 10, a receiver like Alabama’s Jameson Williams (remember, they wanted a burner in pursuing Tyreek Hill) or USC’s Drake London would make sense. But it’s worth noting that there’s more depth in the class at receiver than corner, so the chances the Jets get a good receiver at Nos. 35 or 38 might be better than getting a good corner there. That’s also the beauty of the Jets’ pick haul—they have four in the top 40, so they have freedom to take the best players at Nos. 4 and 10, knowing they have more capital to fill needs. And because they have that kind of deep well, the Jets are open to moving picks into next year, too.

 

Carolina Panthers

First round: No. 6
Total picks: 6
Needs: Edge rusher, QB, OT, OG, interior DL

What you need to know: I think there’s a way better chance they’ll take a tackle here over a quarterback than most people do—provided that Cross, Ekwonu or Neal is still available when they’re up. In fact, there are teams that are convinced the Panthers won’t take a quarterback. Could they even get trigger-happy and try to trade with, say, the Jets to try to get in front of the Giants to get someone like Cross? Given their lack of numbers in picks, I’d say it’s unlikely, but I wouldn’t totally rule it out. And if the tackles are gone, or even if they aren’t, I do believe the preference here would be to trade down, maybe with a team coming up for a pass rusher. If it is a quarterback? Most have them pegged to take Willis or Pitt’s Kenny Pickett, with a little underlying buzz that Ole Miss’s Matt Corral has support in that building.

 

Atlanta Falcons

First round: No. 8
Total picks: 9
Needs: WR, edge rusher, interior DL, CB, OT, QB

What you need to know: A lot of people have the Falcons pegged to take a receiver here, with USC’s Drake London and Ohio State’s Garrett Wilson names to watch. It’s to the point where Atlanta is seen as the team to get in front of if you want your pick of the receiver group. London is very much seen as Arthur Smith’s type of wideout—big and tough and a strong blocker. But if the right edge rusher falls to No. 8, I wouldn’t rule out Smith and Terry Fontenot going in that direction either, with four other top-100 picks to address the receiver need. And if you want a wild card, Willis or Corral would be one here.

 

Washington Commanders

First round: No. 11
Total picks: 6
Needs: OG, S, LB, CB, WR, interior DL

What you need to know: Most other teams expect a receiver to go here—and it’d make sense that they get someone to help take the heat off Terry McLaurin. Stylistically, London would be a great complement for him, and give Carson Wentz the big-bodied type that he had in Philadelphia (Alshon Jeffery) and Indianapolis (Michael Pittman Jr.). So if I had to guess, this would be London’s floor. Wilson would be another really good on-field fit alongside McLaurin. But I’m keeping an eye on Ohio State’s Chris Olave here, too, as he’s very close with McLaurin and is a fantastic cultural fit for the Commanders (if a little redundant on-field with what his ex-Ohio State teammate brings to the table).

Minnesota Vikings

First round: No. 12
Total picks: 8
Needs: CB, edge, S, G, WR, TE

What you need to know: A trade back is a possibility—should a tackle or corner or edge another team really wants be there—with Houston, Baltimore and Philly right behind the Vikings. That said, it’s a good bet that GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and coach Kevin O’Connell, with the first pick they’ll make together, let this pick come to them and take the best player available, regardless of position. It’s worth mentioning that Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell both come from places that value premium positions and elite traits, so a falling Kyle Hamilton, the super-sized Notre Dame safety, or Stingley could fit the bill here.

 
 

Getting back to the draft, Kyle Hamilton is as interesting as any player in the class to me. And that’s because he’s so unique. He’s 6' 4" and 220 pounds. He has two years of track record as an All-American level college player. But his disappointing 40 time (4.59) raised concerns on where, as a bigger safety, he’ll fit in the NFL. Is he a free safety? Is he a strong safety? Can he play just one spot or does he have to be all over? Those questions led to this sort of variety of takes on him from over the weekend …

• NFC assistant coach: “I was watching Sam Howell, and saw him in both his games against Notre Dame; and then I saw Ridder, and he played him twice. And they’re picking on the guy. Maybe he had bad games, I don’t know. … The thing is, he’s super smart, he’s a great kid. The intangibles are there. He’s awesome. But I don’t know where he fits. … I think he’s more of a strong safety.”

• NFC exec: “It’ll come down to how he’s used, that’ll determine the value. Because of his size and length, people want to play him in the box, but that takes away with what he’s good at. … He should be playing high, and then you can bring him down low. … And people will want to match him with tight ends, and I don’t know that he’s that guy.”

• AFC GM: “I think everyone’s overthinking it. Great kid, great size, can do it all. The way I’d think about it, you just have to make sure your coordinator has a plan. To just have him playing the post, manning center field, he’d be a wasted pick. Think of how the Chargers use Derwin James—all over the place, that’s what you have to do.”

• Another AFC GM: “It’d be good to be creative with him. You can use him at all three levels of the defense, and that’s a positive. His hips, his movement skill, they’re excellent. The play speed is good, I didn’t see issues with his play speed. … He’s just a really good player, he’s not as physical, he doesn’t have the pop Derwin James does. But he’s a consistent tackler, in space, to the perimeter, I think he can cover tight ends and he turns the ball over.”

In the end, it’ll be fascinating to see where he comes off the board. Once considered a top-five pick, I think he’ll probably go somewhere between 11 and 20. And the team that takes him? I think it’ll say something about them. As we mentioned before, Minnesota would be an interesting landing spot for him. If you’re hoping he’s James (and Hamilton doesn’t have the testing numbers James did, to be clear), then there’s some synergy there—since James now plays for a Vic Fangio disciple (Brandon Staley) and Hamilton would in Minnesota (Ed Donatell). Pittsburgh, on the other end of that range, would be cool, too.

 

It sounds to me like action at the bottom of the first round might be hotter than action at the top. Or, at least, it sure sounds that way, talking teams at the top of the draft pecking order. One told me that teams close to the bottom of the round have asked more about their interest in moving up from the top of the second round into the bottom of the first than they have about moving up within the first round. And that reflects the nature of the class in general. “This is very much a depth class,” said an NFC executive. “You can build the base of your roster with picks this year. You can get some solid starters, and some contributors. But you’re not getting a lot of difference-makers. So how does that break down? As I see it, after dozens of conversations, the top tackles and pass rushers are valued this year, and then after that probably the top four receivers. But once you get through that group of 10 or so guys, the class flattens out a bunch, right in the mid-teens, where the 15th pick might not be worth much more than the 45th. And even the top group isn’t great—with a few execs having told me the last few months that the top dozen picks last year might be better than anyone this year. So what’s the upshot this year? It’s twofold. One, the second and third rounds should have plenty of gems. And two, it adds a lot more mystery to how the first round will play out for the rest of us.

 

 

Want more predraft takeaways? Those are coming your way. And they’re coming your way right now …

• Dean’s medical has come up with a few teams. There’s nothing disqualifying in there (he’s had a shoulder labrum repair, he’s got tendonitis and tearing in his knee, plus there was a pec and groin issue before his pro day … and there’s a laundry list beyond just that), but there’s plenty to sort through. And it’s making some wonder how, as a smaller linebacker, he’ll hold up in the NFL. Here’s hoping Dean does, because he’s a blast to watch.

• Utah’s Devin Lloyd is another player with some medical questions. I don’t think his age is helping him either.

• Is Hall a back worthy of going in the first round? I had one exec I trust sum him up like this, “You could put a highlight tape together that says yes.” Another said he views him as a poor man’s Johnathan Taylor.

• Another player that’s not being talked about enough: Florida’s Kaiir Elam. I don’t think he’ll go before Gardner, Stingley or McDuffie. But I think he could be the fourth corner to go, and land comfortably in the first round.

• I’ve asked a lot of people to compare Pickett to Patriots QB Mac Jones, because I heard the two compared a lot during the college season. Does it work? Kind of. Both are really football smart and good leaders. Pickett’s a better athlete. But where Jones separates himself is with his accuracy—I had one coach tell me Jones’s special trait is that he maintains it deep into his progressions, where most young quarterbacks can’t get past their first read. Pickett might not have that quite to the degree Jones did coming out.

• I’ve said it a few times now, and I’ll say again that I think there’s a good chance Georgia’s Lewis Cine will go before Michigan’s Daxton Hill. Why? Cine’s got a ton of upside, and is a killer as a hitter. And Hill isn’t as versatile as some have made him out to be—he was really more just a nickel corner than a movable piece in Michigan’s defense. Which has been reflected in how his meetings with teams have gone.

• Why have the tackles cemented themselves as value picks? The top three guys, Ekwonu, Neal and Cross, are seen as safe, because they’re very clean from a character standpoint. And in a class with few sure things, that can make a difference.

• As I’ve said, Cross is very well-regarded in NFL circles—and by some as the best player in the draft. The downside? Well, it’s the offense he comes from. I’ve had a couple people joke about having Andre Dillard PTSD in assessing another Mike Leach tackle. So I turned over some rocks on that comp. The biggest difference between the two, as it was told to me by a few guys, is that Cross has much better core and lower-body strength.

• I had an NFC coach says this to me on Stingley: “Take the 2019 tape, plus the practice tape from that year against Ja’Marr [Chase], and he’s the first pick in the draft.” Which makes, for teams, one question an important one in assessing the star corner: Just how big a mess do you think coach Ed Orgeron’s program was the last two years, and how much of a factor was that in the return on Stingley’s last two years in Baton Rouge being so minimal.

• Could it be that the first quarterback doesn’t go until the 20th pick? I think there’s a chance of it.

 
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12 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Yeah I agree. I'd prefer trade down then take Olave over Hamilton straight up but if we have to stay at 11 I'm taking Hamilton. And I might be the biggest Olave fan here.

I’m preemptively getting myself ready for Olave at 11. This is a FO that (over)values character and culture and doesn’t understand draft value (Wentz trade).

 

I’m just hoping that we have inside info from Terry about Olave and that he is a fanatic in work ethic and maturity and has a long productive career. Ty Hilton is the best case scenario, which would be excellent. 

 

 

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Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Don't know.  As for his age, I do know Lloyd is about to turn 24. 

 

Age doesn't bother me as much as it does others. 8 good years from a backer is real solid and you should still get that with Lloyd if you signed him to a second contract.

 

Obviously he's more impressive if he's 21 vs. 24, though. 

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2 minutes ago, seantaylor=god said:

I’m preemptively getting myself ready for Olave at 11. This is a FO that (over)values character and culture and doesn’t understand draft value (Wentz trade).

 

I’m just hoping that we have inside info from Terry about Olave and that he is a fanatic in work ethic and maturity and has a long productive career. Ty Hilton is the best case scenario, which would be excellent. 

 

 

While Olave at 11 would be a reach, I wouldn't be that upset about it. I like the kid a lot and think he has a lot more upside than people give him credit for. I also don't think we'd be passing on any other superstar prospect at WR except maybe Jameson Williams, and even then that injury scares me to the point where I'd have no regrets passing on him because I'm confident he'll fall apart here(to no fault of his own, we just aren't that team that can resurrect injured players especially with our garbage home field).

 

I do think passing on Hamilton for Olave would suck though because Hamilton is gonna be a star and the combo of him and Young captaining our D for the next decade is arousing. 

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I want to like Isaiah Spiller as RB3 because he has so many good traits like elusiveness and some power and good awareness and physicality in his blocking.  But he's just slow.  He has no top gear at all and he takes forever to press the hole.  He is slower than McKissic and I don't want to add another slow running back with such limited big play ability to the rotation.  He wouldn't upgrade it.

 

If we don't pick Walker or Hall by 47, I'm out on picking the position until day three.  A speed threat like Cook or Strong in round four-six interests me, otherwise I'd just look for a power back at the end of the draft.

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6 minutes ago, seantaylor=god said:

I’m preemptively getting myself ready for Olave at 11. This is a FO that (over)values character and culture and doesn’t understand draft value (Wentz trade).

 

I’m just hoping that we have inside info from Terry about Olave and that he is a fanatic in work ethic and maturity and has a long productive career. Ty Hilton is the best case scenario, which would be excellent. 

 

 

 

I don't know what else people wanted from the Wentz trade, though.

 

To not get him? Chances are if the Colts released him he wasn't coming to DC.

 

If you're telling me we'd get the best (second best because Sam Howell exists) QB in the draft with our 3rd rounder I'd be ecstatic.

 

I do agree this staff tends to overvalue character. But when you're trying to change a culture you kind of have to. They aren't perfect. Just not sure what they could have done better RE: the topics you brought up.

1 minute ago, Going Commando said:

I want to like Isaiah Spiller as RB3 because he has so many good traits like elusiveness and some power and good awareness and physicality in his blocking.  But he's just slow.  He has no top gear at all and he takes forever to press the hole.  He is slower than McKissic and I don't want to add another slow running back with such limited big play ability to the rotation.  He wouldn't upgrade it.

 

If we don't pick Walker or Hall by 47, I'm out on picking the position until day three.  A speed threat like Cook or Strong in round four-six interests me, otherwise I'd just look for a power back at the end of the draft.

 

I have Spiller as RB4, out of our range. Brian Robinson I am really high on though and I have him at RB3. He does everything. I'd like to see better hands but pass pro and running he's a literal hammer. I think the league may view him differently though and he may be there in the 4th. But the only way I risk that is if Walker/Hall are gone. 

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56 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

The Wonderlic has such a strong socioeconomic bias to it that it's more of a test of childhood privilege than a test of any trait.  I don't think it's a useful tool for anything other than filling up your team with guys of a certain socioeconomic class. 

 

I'm with this line of thinking as well Steve though I am speaking out of school in this realm. I do not see the value of truth tables, setting up equations and so on as being indicative of a successful transition to the NFL. Maybe tweak the test in areas. I don't know. Maybe I feel this way because I struggled in school myself and have a hard time with on the fly calculations. 

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1 minute ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

I'm with this line of thinking as well Steve though I am speaking out of school in this realm. I do not see the value of truth tables, setting up equations and so on as being indicative of a successful transition to the NFL. Maybe tweak the test in areas. I don't know. Maybe I feel this way because I struggled in school myself and have a hard time with on the fly calculations. 

 

As far as I know it's a more of a literacy test designed to test reading comprehension and math skills.

 

The reading comprehension part matters more than the math skills part for some positions. It doesn't make a lick of difference in others. And the amount it matters for the positions that it could is largely individually unique. 

 

 

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38 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

But once you get through that group of 10 or so guys, the class flattens out a bunch, right in the mid-teens, where the 15th pick might not be worth much more than the 45th.

 

Seems like we are in good shape for one of the few trade up spots. We need one of the top 10 players to unexpectedly fall to our pick. Otherwise we are stuck at 11 overdrafting a player like Olave. Yikes.

 

As I've been saying, this is the draft to build the depth of your roster, and take a couple chances on boom or bust players. The more bites at the apple the better. The "15th pick being equal to pick 45" is very telling. 

 

So jealous of teams like the ravens that have ELEVEN picks in the middle rounds. They could really take their team to the top if they hit on even half of them with how strong this draft is in the middle rounds.

 

I hope we're doing everything we can to trade down on Thursday. Unfortunately I don't like our odds with so many teams trying to trade down as well. I will keep my fingers crossed.

 

I'd honestly take a trade down that is a little under-value compared to previous draft trades. That's how important I think it is to trade down if we can.

 

One of the top 3 tackles/ Drake London you can maybe talk me into. Hamilton's position value probably isn't worth 11 but if we're forced to stay at 11 there's not much we can do about it. Olave? hard pass at 11. 

 

If the only way to get proper value at 11 is take an injured Jameson Williams I think you do it. If the top 10 guys are gone, you don't pass on a top 10 talent because he will miss a handful of games to start the year. Any of these players can get injured in training camp. You gotta take BPA at 11 if we're stuck picking there.

 

The Cowboys might be the only team stupid enough to trade up this year to overdraft a player outside of the top 10 players, and if they are...I would deal with them in a heartbeat.

 

I wish we traded a 2024 2nd round pick for Wentz instead of this year's 3rd. So pissed we gave up a 3rd in this draft, especially if we can't trade back to recoup a 3rd.

Edited by Forever A Redskin
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11 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

I'm with this line of thinking as well Steve though I am speaking out of school in this realm. I do not see the value of truth tables, setting up equations and so on as being indicative of a successful transition to the NFL. Maybe tweak the test in areas. I don't know. Maybe I feel this way because I struggled in school myself and have a hard time with on the fly calculations. 

 

The Wonderlic was designed in the 30s back when people thought there was some kind of magic bullet measure for intellect.  The reason it caught on so broadly is because you can administer the test with zero expertise in less than 15 minutes, and anybody can grade it right there on the spot.  That's it.  And the result is a score which can then be leaked to the media for a multitude of reasons.  It's such a horribly outdated test that is used by teams to create noise and attempt to manipulate the draft in their favor.  Teams use much more sophisticated assessment tests now, and they get sent off to be evaluated by real experts that don't have easy, leakable number grade results.

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A guy I've heard NO buzz about...

 

 

Likely due to being a 4/5 tech... But Sam Williams is a problem. I think he could play traditional end or 3-technique and cause issues for teams. Watching games its more evident even, but in this highlight reel he uses his hands, leverage, speed, motor... It's really fun to watch. I like this guy. A lot. I'm not sure why there has been no hype around him but this guy is for real. 

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32 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Age doesn't bother me as much as it does others. 8 good years from a backer is real solid and you should still get that with Lloyd if you signed him to a second contract.

 

Obviously he's more impressive if he's 21 vs. 24, though. 

 

I mentioned his age a while back when talking about Lloyd. Now with medical questions as well I could see him falling further than initially expected.

 

I want to go through the RiggosRag list of player interest and note the players with the most instances of interviews/visits.

 

For instance, we met with Chenal and Watson on 3 separate occasions. Could the multiple instances reflect level of interest? I can only hope so. A lot of players only got one or two instances of interviews/visits. But maybe that's all they need for some players to form their opinion.

 

I've got a feeling in my gut that Watson goes late 1st now. His ceiling will be too much for teams to pass up on when picking from the 2nd group of receivers. GB or KC will probably take him.

 

If Chenal/Walker/Hall fall to 47 and we trade out because we couldn't trade down in the 1st I'll be livid.

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1 minute ago, Forever A Redskin said:

 

I mentioned his age a while back when talking about Lloyd. Now with medical questions as well I could see him falling further than initially expected.

 

I want to go through the RiggosRag list of player interest and note the players with the most instances of interviews/visits.

 

For instance, we met with Chenal and Watson on 3 separate occasions. Could the multiple instances reflect level of interest? I can only hope so. A lot of players only got one or two instances of interviews/visits. But maybe that's all they need for some players to form their opinion.

 

My take, based on if I were them:

 

London at 11.

 

If he's not there and they get a good trade back offer and they take it:

 

Watson at the back end of round 1 to address receiver.

 

I'd be a lot more comfortable with the risk on Watson in the back end of the first and if he meets his potential you just got WR1 in the back half. Plus you have other draft choices now. At that point I'm looking Walker/Hall and corner/hybrid I think. But I'm not totally decided there.

 

But I think they like Watson. And Watson is growing on me to the point where if we trade back into the deep 20s and get him the trade back won't make me want to throw my remote.

 

I don't want to trade back and get Dax Hill. I like Dax Hill. Quite a bit. But he's a good defensive piece. He's not a game changing playmaker on the offense. 

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23 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I have Spiller as RB4, out of our range. Brian Robinson I am really high on though and I have him at RB3. He does everything. I'd like to see better hands but pass pro and running he's a literal hammer. I think the league may view him differently though and he may be there in the 4th. But the only way I risk that is if Walker/Hall are gone. 

 

If you've got a barren depth chart and just need someone to competently soak up carries, Spiller makes sense.  Not for us though, we need someone special enough to actually upgrade over what we already have in order to crack our rotation.  I like Robinson and am leaning toward him as RB3 but it's such a huge drop off from Hall to him that it's depressing.

 

Really I want to put Zeus White as RB3, but he's too flawed.  I would love to have his no nonsense style for an inside running game, but his balance isn't ideal and his biomechanics are horrible.  It's not surprising that he's torn both his ACLs with the way he runs and plays.  It can be spectacular to watch his violent cuts and violent acceleration where he dives into contact with super low pads.  But his weight is so far over his knees into the contact that the shearing force he puts on them is Hell.  Plus he doesn't know how to fall and there are a lot of awkward hits where his legs go flailing out that reminds me of how RGIII got hurt.  I don't think he's going to have a long career.

 

If he's there in the sixth though, I take him.  His acceleration and power are so good that he's worth the risk by then.  His vision is good too and I don't think any other running back in the class is more aggressive and productive on inside power than him.  He finds any space that is there and hits it with a tremendous amount of speed and force.

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24 minutes ago, Forever A Redskin said:

 

Seems like we are in good shape for one of the few trade up spots. We need one of the top 10 players to unexpectedly fall to our pick. Otherwise we are stuck at 11 overdrafting a player like Olave. Yikes.

 

As I've been saying, this is the draft to build the depth of your roster, and take a couple chances on boom or bust players. The more bites at the apple the better. The "15th pick being equal to pick 45" is very telling. 

 

So jealous of teams like the ravens that have ELEVEN picks in the middle rounds. They could really take their team to the top if they hit on even half of them with how strong this draft is in the middle rounds.

 

I hope we're doing everything we can to trade down on Thursday. Unfortunately I don't like our odds with so many teams trying to trade down as well. I will keep my fingers crossed.

 

 

Agreed. 👍

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11 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

My take, based on if I were them:

 

London at 11.

 

If he's not there and they get a good trade back offer and they take it:

 

Watson at the back end of round 1 to address receiver.

 

I'd be a lot more comfortable with the risk on Watson in the back end of the first and if he meets his potential you just got WR1 in the back half. Plus you have other draft choices now. At that point I'm looking Walker/Hall and corner/hybrid I think. But I'm not totally decided there.

 

But I think they like Watson. And Watson is growing on me to the point where if we trade back into the deep 20s and get him the trade back won't make me want to throw my remote.

 

I don't want to trade back and get Dax Hill. I like Dax Hill. Quite a bit. But he's a good defensive piece. He's not a game changing playmaker on the offense. 

 

This is where I'm at too Kdawg. Drake London or bust. I don't even want Hamilton at 11 anymore. If they have Drake as WR1 by a mile I will trust the eval of the team and get behind it. Anyone else I pass on at 11 for a trade back.

 

Watson in the 20s and Hall/Walker + LB/Safety/Buffalo BPA as our top 3 picks would be a dream scenario.

 

Or maybe we can sell a team on our interest in Jameson Williams for the trade back.... Hmm

Edited by Forever A Redskin
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40 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

I want to like Isaiah Spiller as RB3 because he has so many good traits like elusiveness and some power and good awareness and physicality in his blocking.  But he's just slow.  He has no top gear at all and he takes forever to press the hole.  He is slower than McKissic and I don't want to add another slow running back with such limited big play ability to the rotation.  He wouldn't upgrade it.

 

If we don't pick Walker or Hall by 47, I'm out on picking the position until day three.  A speed threat like Cook or Strong in round four-six interests me, otherwise I'd just look for a power back at the end of the draft.

Brian Robinson?

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