2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

Parts of that Standig article

 

 

[SemperFi Skins]

well that's depressing, thanks SIP! lol

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I want to invest in and develop a thoroughbred. I'm sick of these veteran retreads or mediocre prospects. Shoot for the moon. Yeah the RG3 trade ended up sucking but man how fun was 2012...now imagine having that type of QB for a decade and then actually building up a team around him...

 

They had the chance, they didn't do it. Those classes were '17 (Watson, and Mahomes), '18 (Baker, Darnold, Rosen, Allen, Jackson), '20 (Burrow, Tua, Herbert) and '21 (Lawrence, Fields, Lance, Jones). They passed all four years, and only dipped in for the crap year ('19). I have literally every single prospect I've mentioned from those classes rated above anyone from this class. I didn't include Trubisky because I didn't know him as a prospect at all. I also was idiotically changed my mind on Watson after his arm velocity testing score came in as what I equated to Woeful-esque (since then its become clear that the velocity test doesn't really seem to accurately test arm strength)

 

You can be ready to invest and develop a legit franchise QB, but the only time it makes sense to invest blue chip draft capital are in classes with legit non pushed up talent. The past few decades those were classes like '04, '06, '11 (I hated most of the 1st round guys, but liked Newton, Locker, Kap and Dalton), '12, '15, '17, '18, '20, and '21. We've dipped in '12, and in '19, '12 was a good class, but we missed/broke our franchise guy (and landed a just below franchise level talent in Cousins anyway on day 3, a true rarity), and in '19 we reached. '22 is a '19 like class, just with no Kyler's, and more Jones/Haskins type roll of the dice guys. It's not a draft to draft a QB in the top 10. WAY WAY WAY too likely to hit the Blaine Gabbert/Blake Bortles "whammy"" to quote press your luck.

 

This is why I was losing my ---- the past few years as we tried to massage the problem (Alex Smith instead of drafting a guy back in '18) instead of fixing it, and when that failed, reaching, instead of attacking the problem in the right class ('18, '20, '21). If you force the issue, you might get lucky and get a steal, but far more often you've just wated top 30 draft capital on a guy that would've been a day 2 or day 3 prospect in a good class (like '17-'18, '20-'21). 

Edited October 21, 2021 by The Consigliere

[The Consigliere]

That big story was exactly why I was screaming bloody murder for us to take a QB (whoops on Tua over Herbert) over Chase Young. It literrally NEVER made sense to take Young over a QB. There was no legit QB on the roster unless you thought Haskins deserved more chances, and certainly after '20, it was even more patently obvious we had to make a move for a long term answer at QB and we eschewed it yet again. I may be wrong about Fields, we'll see, but I think Fields going into the draft as a prospect, was as good or better than any prospect since Luck not named Trevor Lawrence (I have to be fair and say that Mahomes was a super unusual prospect which is why he dropped, and Allen was horrifically inaccurate, which made him a huge risk to me). Fields had everything and was basically a 1B to Lawrence. That we wouldn't pay up to move to 9, or at worst, pay up to move in front of the Pats for Mac Jones is just inexplicable to me. Don't rate him highly? Maybe fire your scouts because they don't know what they're watching? You're taking a LB in the top half of the first round, that's literally salary cap/drafting no no 101. 

 

It's beyond frustrating, but as the article alludes to, basically other than a miracle find at QB, we're screwed because the owner is poison. 

[philibusters]

17 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

That big story was exactly why I was screaming bloody murder for us to take a QB (whoops on Tua over Herbert) over Chase Young. It literrally NEVER made sense to take Young over a QB. There was no legit QB on the roster unless you thought Haskins deserved more chances, and certainly after '20, it was even more patently obvious we had to make a move for a long term answer at QB and we eschewed it yet again. I may be wrong about Fields, we'll see, but I think Fields going into the draft as a prospect, was as good or better than any prospect since Luck not named Trevor Lawrence (I have to be fair and say that Mahomes was a super unusual prospect which is why he dropped, and Allen was horrifically inaccurate, which made him a huge risk to me). Fields had everything and was basically a 1B to Lawrence. That we wouldn't pay up to move to 9, or at worst, pay up to move in front of the Pats for Mac Jones is just inexplicable to me. Don't rate him highly? Maybe fire your scouts because they don't know what they're watching? You're taking a LB in the top half of the first round, that's literally salary cap/drafting no no 101. 

 

It's beyond frustrating, but as the article alludes to, basically other than a miracle find at QB, we're screwed because the owner is poison. 

 

I definitely thought we were still committed to Haskins at the time of the 2020 draft.   I think people forget that for the most part this board was still hopeful on Haskins.  Haskins definitely had his critics on this board.  He finsihed 2019 hitting 58.6% of his passes with 7 TD's and 7 picks and 6.7 yards per attempt.  Which seems unremarkable, but after 2.5 games he had 0 TD's and 4 interceptions so over his last 6 games he threw 7 Td's and 3 interceptions and seemed to show a growing awareness.  Part of the fanbase wasn't impressed, but there were some like myself, who argued Haskins was always a project in the Trey Lance mold so people needed to be patient and that he showed enough to warrant some optimism.

 

I actually think the regime change was bad for Haskins.  I wish Rivera had given him all of last season.  First if he failed and we went 5-11 rather than 7-9 we probably pick 8th or 9th and can draft Justin Fields or Mac Jones without trading up.  Second he hadn't got his groove yet with the new regime so a 4 game sample was short.  That playoff run cost us dearly as we could have drafted Fields or Jones if we go 5-11.

[Skinsinparadise]

6 hours ago, SemperFi Skins said:

 

Howell has it. He is a gamer. Same with Corral, though i'd give the edge to Howell since I don't like to base my judgements off of one year. To me, Howell is more of a Mayfield and Corral is similar to Derek Carr. Willis is a tough sell for me. I'm not huge on running qb's with accuracy issues. They'll get figured out in the pros. He just hasn't played against any real talent and that's too risky for a team like ours to gamble on. 

 

Corral is super dynamic though I'd still give the edge to Howell. In fact, even Pickett may make more sense to the WFT since he's looked the most pro-ready.

 

Cool.  So far, I watched Howell the way I watched Corral last year which is I noticed what I noticed based on watching his play makers for that draft.  I've watched Corral much more carefullly this year.  But I've not dived into Howell the same way.   I liked his deep ball and general grittiness/toughness.  I wonder about his upside but I got to watch more I am nowhere near ready to give a strong opinon on him.

 

I'll probably dive more into Pickett first before Howell.  I liked what i saw from Pickett in the Virginia Tech game.  But I need to watch more.  Ditto Willis.  Ditto Strong. 

 

 

 

 

Edited October 21, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Which QB's are Senior Bowl eligible?  I also really hope everyone attends the Senior Bowl, as it clearly helped the draft stock of Daniel Jones, Herbert, and Mac Jones.  So there's incentive for them to do so.

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, philibusters said:

 

I definitely thought we were still committed to Haskins at the time of the 2020 draft.   I think people forget that for the most part this board was still hopeful on Haskins.  Haskins definitely had his critics on this board.  He finsihed 2019 hitting 58.6% of his passes with 7 TD's and 7 picks and 6.7 yards per attempt.  Which seems unremarkable, but after 2.5 games he had 0 TD's and 4 interceptions so over his last 6 games he threw 7 Td's and 3 interceptions and seemed to show a growing awareness.  Part of the fanbase wasn't impressed, but there were some like myself, who argued Haskins was always a project in the Trey Lance mold so people needed to be patient and that he showed enough to warrant some optimism.

 

I actually think the regime change was bad for Haskins.  I wish Rivera had given him all of last season.  First if he failed and we went 5-11 rather than 7-9 we probably pick 8th or 9th and can draft Justin Fields or Mac Jones without trading up.  Second he hadn't got his groove yet with the new regime so a 4 game sample was short.  That playoff run cost us dearly as we could have drafted Fields or Jones if we go 5-11.

 

I think the board was basically in disagreement on Haskins. I don't think it was 90-10 or 80-20 against or anything, but I also tend to be a lurker other than the draft season and periodically in season since over time my fandom has cooled and I've moved my focus to other sports and dynasty fantasy in football since generally I view WFT as hopeless under Snyder. 

 

I will say that I was in the camp that was 1000% behind going for QB. That Haskins simply wasn't good enough to justify passing on QB when you landed a top 2 pick in a draft with 3 legit blue chip QB prospects. We were in a similar position to Arizona the year before that had a top 10-15 caliber QB prospect in house, but the '18 data wasn't great, and could be shaded either way (maybe it was the ----- coach/OC, or maybe it was Rosen, or maybe it was both?), same with Haskins, and Arizona didnt think twice, they just pulled the trigger on Kyler and never looked back. We should've done the same in '20, Tua or Herbert, pull the trigger on one, at worst, you've got a scenario where you've got two bust QB's, but in that situation you know pretty quick and can unload the guys and try again. 

 

I think Haskins was basically reasonably okay as a rookie, but catastrophically bad as a 2nd year guy, and I think the guys in house knew that he was a ---- bird from day 1, not serious, and not a first in last out guy. When it comes to QB eval, I still suck at is, no better than random chance (my favs of the last 20 years were Culpepper, Eli, Ben Roth, Rodgers (I'm a Cal Alum, so I was all in on taking him from having seen him produce elite #'s, set a record against USC etc), Leinart, Cam, Locker, Luck, RGIII, Winston, Mahomes, Baker, Darnold, Rosen, Jackson, Kyler, Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Lawrence, Fields, Lance: You can see plenty of hit and miss. I'm much better picking guys I hate than picking the hits in round 1), I was fine with the Haskins pick at the time because he seemed to have a top 20-45 grade, and we needed a QB. But I also didn't have the reports on him being an --- clown. Over the years, I've come around to the point where I no longer believe casual fans have access to the information necessary to evaluate QB's. The best we can do is collect data that suggests good signs, and data that suggests bad signs, but with QB's, it really seems to come down to certain core things:

#1 NFL capable arm (If he's Danny Woeful, it won't work, doesn't have to be a rocket, but needs to be able to make them all). 

#2 Has to be accurate since this is rarely improved very much after college (this is why and how I missed on Josh Allen)

#3 Has to have the right mental make up, can be a lot of different styles of leaders, but needs to approach the game studiously, and be a first in last out guy. 

#4 Has to be eager to learn the game, study the game, and grow with the game. 

 

I think we can figure out #1, and #2 generally from our own armchair and computer scoutings. But 3 and 4 are more nebulous, and require interviews with the player, coaches, teammates, etc. We don't have access to that, but over the years there have usually been warning signs about guys that aren't serious enough, aren't leaders, are about themselves etc. My guess is the in house guys with the redskins heard enough negatives about Haskins habits, to drop him because his #'s were ridiculous. Not sure about the tape. I think they knew he had issues but Snyder thought the local guy ---- trumped that. 

 

Anyway, it didn't. He sucked, and sucks. Technically I think he has the 1 and 2 to be a good to great pro, it's the changable stuff that he doesn't have: the problem is changing your mental make up and approach to challenges is very difficult as an adult. It's possible, just rare, and challenging. Basically Haskins has to want it, and be humble enough to make it happen. I doubt he does, but he could. 

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Cool.  So far, I watched Howell the way I watched Corral last year which is I noticed what I noticed based on watching his play makers for that draft.  I've watched Corral much more carefullly this year.  But I've not dived into Howell the same way.   I liked his deep ball and general grittiness/toughness.  I wonder about his upside but I got to watch more I am nowhere near ready to give a strong opinon on him.

 

I'll probably dive more into Pickett first before Howell.  I liked what i saw from Pickett in the Virginia Tech game.  But I need to watch more.  Ditto Willis.  Ditto Strong. 

 

 

 

 

Whenever I read this I always wonder, "What the hell happened the other 3 seasons then?"

[Daniel.redskins]

I don't understand why people are off on Desmond Ridder?  To me he has everything needed for modern day NFL.  Tall, strong arm, and can scramble.  If anyone from this class can become a Mahomes or Allen, I would say it's Ridder.  Corral looks too skinny for a QB, he looks smaller than Murray.  I'm concerned if he can take NFL hits.  And Willis needs to sit for a few years which won't work here.  Picket doesn't have the arm strength for first round pick (though he would be an excellent day 2 pick).  What am I missing on Ridder?

[philibusters]

7 minutes ago, Daniel.redskins said:

I don't understand why people are off on Desmond Ridder?  To me he has everything needed for modern day NFL.  Tall, strong arm, and can scramble.  If anyone from this class can become a Mahomes or Allen, I would say it's Ridder.  Corral looks too skinny for a QB, he looks smaller than Murray.  I'm concerned if he can take NFL hits.  And Willis needs to sit for a few years which won't work here.  Picket doesn't have the arm strength for first round pick (though he would be an excellent day 2 pick).  What am I missing on Ridder?

 

I think most posters probably are not that versed on him.  The only game I saw him play this year was against Indiana and he was bad for the first half and solid in the second half, but overall he didn't leave me wow'ed.  But it was one game (and his worst statistically) so judging him off that game probably isn't fair to him.  I also saw snippets of the Notre Dame game, but only snippets.   He had a solid performance in that game, but because I only saw snippets I didn't really get to appreciate it.   

[Long n Left]

Looking forward to watching Pickett against the Clemson defense today. Clemson’s offense is an abomination this year, but their defense is excellent, with a number of guys who will play in the league. Good measuring stick for Pickett.

 

Also, who said Pickett doesn’t have arm strength? Have you actually watched him? Guy throws 20 yard outs on a rope. Biggest knock on him, outside of the hands, has been his decision making. Looks much cleaner this year.

[Redskins Reparations]

3 hours ago, Long n Left said:

Looking forward to watching Pickett against the Clemson defense today. Clemson’s offense is an abomination this year, but their defense is excellent, with a number of guys who will play in the league. Good measuring stick for Pickett.

 

Also, who said Pickett doesn’t have arm strength? Have you actually watched him? Guy throws 20 yard outs on a rope. Biggest knock on him, outside of the hands, has been his decision making. Looks much cleaner this year.

Pickett is facing constant pressure from the Clemson defense and so far he has been running for his life.

[Long n Left]

21 minutes ago, Redskins Reparations said:

Pickett is facing constant pressure from the Clemson defense and so far he has been running for his life.

That Clemson D line is dominating. Can’t believe the Tigers were underdogs this game. Easy money.

[PartyPosse]

On 10/21/2021 at 1:04 PM, Alcoholic Zebra said:

Which QB's are Senior Bowl eligible?

The senior ones.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

2 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

The senior ones.

 

Sounds iffy.  Citation please?

[PartyPosse]

Pickett was a nasty TD throw right there

7 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Sounds iffy.  Citation please?

I’m not doing your work for you.

[Skinsinparadise]

Pickett is looking really good today 

If I had to pick a high end comp, on the upside, maybe Derrick Carr?

Edited October 23, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Redskins Reparations]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

Pickett is looking really good today 

The Washington Football Team selects…

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, Redskins Reparations said:

The Washington Football Team selects…

I want to see more, this is the 2nd game I’ve watched of his but I am definitely leaning positive so far.

[Redskins Reparations]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I want to see more, this is the 2nd game I’ve watched of his but I am definitely leaning positive so far.

[KDawg]

I’m watching Pickett and he has all the tools… but his arm is not NFL strong. It’s better than Heinicke. 
 

I’m curious how he holds onto the ball against NFL defensive linemen with the hand size, but Clemson isn’t a bad litmus test. 
 

I’ve been distracted with the game on in the background so I haven’t seen everything but it kind of looks like he has some loft under the ball. But he reads the field very well and understands what the defense is trying to accomplish. But I don’t see NFL zip.

 

But again I’m withholding judgment on a lot of these guys until I actually sit and watch. Which I’ll do when my season is over (and I’ll do it as part of my research to better my defense by watching the QBs against various defensive fronts)
 

 

[mistertim]

Corral looks good so far vs LSU.

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Corral looks good so far vs LSU.

Agree.  I’ve been going back and forth of those 2 games, Ole Miss and Pitt.

 

As for Pickett to my eyes he has slightly above average arm strength. You could see it on some of his more tight window throws. But I think some draft geek guys like the pro football network guys overrate his arm strength, implying he has a borderline rocket. 
 

His arm strength reminds me of Kirks, above average but nothing crazy good. 
 

My hesitation with Pickett is he seems like he’s going with 1 to 2 reads you don’t see his eyes dart around like Corral for example. He also tends to lock on to his target as far as his eyes go. Not always but I’ve seen it enough.  I think he needs to take something off his throws in the flat, more touch. He seems the most comfortable throwing intermediate throws up the middle in between the numbers.

 

what I’ve liked is he can move around the pocket while keeping his eyes downfield, has good accuracy on a range of throws, puts a nice arc on the deep ball. Has some baller on him as to his style of play. He can run, not like Corral, but has above average mobility.

 

I got to see more though my mind could change. I need to see 5 games at a minimum to feel comfortable to launch a strong opinion on any QB

[Skinsinparadise]

I just did a quick read on what some say about Picketts arm strength. Lol, it reminds me of the reports on Jones before last draft. All over the place. Great to bad.

 

To me it looks slightly above average but inconsistent. The one thing I like to say though on the subject is it’s hard to tell sometimes watching on TV, much easier to tell when you see it live, I defended Mac Jones’ arm strength by talking about seeing it live.

 

So maybe @KDawg is right on it. I don’t know. I’d have to see it in person to decide. I go back and forth on it while I am watching the game.

Edited October 23, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[philibusters]

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

I’m watching Pickett and he has all the tools… but his arm is not NFL strong. It’s better than Heinicke. 
 

I’m curious how he holds onto the ball against NFL defensive linemen with the hand size, but Clemson isn’t a bad litmus test. 
 

I’ve been distracted with the game on in the background so I haven’t seen everything but it kind of looks like he has some loft under the ball. But he reads the field very well and understands what the defense is trying to accomplish. But I don’t see NFL zip.

 

But again I’m withholding judgment on a lot of these guys until I actually sit and watch. Which I’ll do when my season is over (and I’ll do it as part of my research to better my defense by watching the QBs against various defensive fronts)
 

 

 

I was similarly impressed.  I also agree with observation about his throwing power.  Its pretty meh.  But he does everything fairly well.  Just a really good game manager.  In that sense I see him as this year's Mac Jones.  Jones didn't have the physical tools but learned how to effectively manage games at Alabama.   Pickett doesn't have any physical tools that make you say wow, but he consistently manages games really well.  I have Corral, Pickett, and Howell as my top three with the acknowledgement that I haven't really watched Carson Strong, Malik Harris, or Desmond Ridder.   I watched maybe 5 throws from Ridder today flicking through games and one of them should have been a pick six by Navy