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Election 2022 (Dems in charge of Senate. Reps take the House. Herschel Walker headed back home to ignore his children )

Cooked Crack

By Cooked Crack
in The Tailgate

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TradeTheBeal!

TradeTheBeal!

Posted
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, tshile said:


I hate to break it to you but no, violent crime is an actual thing that exists. And it is measured and important policies are decided around it. 
 

 


 

yeah. Racist dog whistle seems to work swell :rolleyes:


“in the context of GOP campaigning” is the part you seem to be overlooking.  And when I say it always works, I’m talking about you…not black democrats.  And I could not be more right, as you have clearly demonstrated.

 


And yes, I am well aware that black democrats care very much about violent crime and that’s why the Bernie Bro-driven “defund the police” slogan was an all-time self own.

Edited by TradeTheBeal!
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China

China

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, tshile said:

Here’s where both graphs come from

 

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/10/31/violent-crime-is-a-key-midterm-voting-issue-but-what-does-the-data-say/

 


 


 


 

People crafting narratives on both sides. 
 

im completely shocked

 

Those articles suggest 2021 data isn't available yet, it is.

 

A Shift in Crime

 

Murders are declining, but other crimes are still disrupting American life.

 

 

For the last two years, murders and shootings increased in the U.S., while many other types of crime remained flat or fell. So far in 2022, the trends have reversed.

It’s a confusing combination. The worst forms of crime have been moving in a different direction from other forms of crime. Both developments have big implications for everyday life: The decline in murder is saving lives, but the rise of street crime has created widespread anxiety and problems in many parts of the U.S.

 

First, the good news: Murders in major cities have fallen by 4 percent so far in 2022, compared with the same period in 2021. Shootings nationwide have fallen 2 percent. The decreases are not enough to undo the large increases in 2020 and 2021; the murder rate is still 30 percent above its 2019 level. But the spike appears to have peaked last year.

 

Covid disrupted services that helped keep people safe, like policing and addiction treatment programs. The pandemic also closed down schools, which left teenagers idle and stressed. This year, however, the virus’s impact on daily rhythms has waned; the slow return of normalcy has probably helped reduce violent crime.

 

Another factor is the fallout from George Floyd’s murder in 2020. The horror of his killing damaged police-community relations and made more people skeptical of working with law enforcement. Floyd’s murder probably also contributed to what scholars call “legal cynicism”: When people lose confidence in law enforcement, they are more likely to resolve conflicts through their own means, including violence, instead of the criminal justice system. With more time since Floyd’s death, those effects have also receded.

 

In that sense, the 2020-21 murder spike looks somewhat like a previous jump in murders in 2015 and 2016. That increase also occurred after protests over police violence, including the killings of Michael Brown in Ferguson, Mo., and of Freddie Gray in Baltimore. And the trend started to reverse within three years.

 

Click on the link for the full article

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tshile

tshile

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, TradeTheBeal! said:


“in the context of GOP campaigning” is the part you seem to be overlooking.  And when I say it always works, I’m talking about you…not black democrats.  And I could not be more right, as you have clearly demonstrated.

 


And yes, I am well aware that black democrats care very much about violent crime and that’s why the Bernie Bro-driven “defund the police” slogan was an all-time self own.


In the context of GOP campaigning, it works significantly more on black people, and white people are the lowest demo to agree it’s an issue (with the caveat there were not enough Asian respondents to measure them as an individual demo)

 

so no. You’re completely wrong. Maybe look into it first next time. 

18 minutes ago, China said:

Those articles suggest 2021 data isn't available yet, it is.

Pew says federal annual reports (cdc and fbi) aren’t available but goes on to discuss other types of reports that are. 
 

I can’t read the article and it’s not in the part you copy/pasted. Is their data from the annual reports from cdc/fbi? If not then there’s no conflict there 

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tshile

tshile

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Simmsy said:

I'm seeing a lot of GOPers point to Guam as some kind of significant result, seems like desperation to me, but I'm going to keep my mouth shut for now.


it is the first time since 1990

 

but. It’s a completely meaningless seat to have. And I can’t imagine Guam is part of any trend or can be a bellweather or anything else. They’re just pumping an early victory. 

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Simmsy

Simmsy

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

 

Plus the Democrats there won the "local" elections. Suspect that Moylan was an outlier there. 

 

2 minutes ago, tshile said:


it is the first time since 1990

 

but. It’s a completely meaningless seat to have. And I can’t imagine Guam is part of any trend or can be a bellweather or anything else. They’re just pumping an early victory. 

 

He won by a 4.4% margin...which is about 1,600 votes, but they lost pretty much everywhere else. In all the other sites I see, the GOP mentions the former, but not the latter. Once again, seems like they're trying to reach and make it seem like "its not so bad". Which I also don't understand, kinda late for that now, eh?

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tshile

tshile

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, visionary said:

I don’t know, but I’m honestly kind of scared. 

Oz masters and Walker could win. There are other places where stuff is going on too, we’ll see what makes it through the day and what doesn’t. 
 

it’s not looking good for dems but honestly it’s likely going to be a few days before we know what’s what. 
 

but yeah, dems wanted to run on abortion and good governance. And it kind of looks like no one cares about abortion (in terms of voting issues) and people don’t like the government 😂 

 

but still - it’s entirely possible the youth vote shows up and all these models are whack. We’ll see. 

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tshile

tshile

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, visionary said:

We also have to worry about state legislatures if it’s a real red wave and potentially 2024 and on.

It’s not specified in the thread but I wonder if they’re simply looking at in person voting 

 

almost everyone I know early voted. 
 

In fact I’ve had to explain why I in-person vote to basically everyone (it’s not an interesting explanation)

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