WP: In survey, Redskins ask fans for their level of confidence in team’s executives

[Voice_of_Reason]

On 1/23/2018 at 6:56 PM, Warhead36 said:

I'd say the draft is more like Blackjack or Poker. No guarantees of course, but if you play it smart and do your research, you can win more often than not.

 

Williams will be an absolutely horrendous "GM."

Just FYI, you don't win more often than you lose playing Blackjack, even if you play the system to a tee.  I know this.  I was told this buy the person who taught me how to play Blackjack (family friend) who also happened to be the casino manager of the Mandalay Bay group casinos in Vegas back in the late 90's. (And no, he didn't teach me wrong so I would lose.)  I then spent the next decade trying to prove him wrong, and guess what, he wasn't wrong.  That's why they can build the big casinos.   I went to Vegas and played blackjack between 6 and 10 times a year for the next 10 years.  

 

However, I like your analogy.  I think the draft is kindof like blackjack. You play the system, know when to double-down, and eventually you get a "winner winner chicken dinner."  You'll lose some hands, but if you're smart, you can maximize your winnings, minimize losses, and have a good time.  

 

Poker is different, because you're not playing cards, you're playing people.  I tried playing poker once, lost my shirt in like 10 hands, and retreated back to the world of probabilities.  

[Reaper Skins]

2 hours ago, SkinFanInMinn said:

I need another acronym for Gruden. 

InternetMemeGrude?

[Warhead36]

3 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Just FYI, you don't win more often than you lose playing Blackjack, even if you play the system to a tee.  I know this.  I was told this buy the person who taught me how to play Blackjack (family friend) who also happened to be the casino manager of the Mandalay Bay group casinos in Vegas back in the late 90's. (And no, he didn't teach me wrong so I would lose.)  I then spent the next decade trying to prove him wrong, and guess what, he wasn't wrong.  That's why they can build the big casinos.   I went to Vegas and played blackjack between 6 and 10 times a year for the next 10 years.  

 

However, I like your analogy.  I think the draft is kindof like blackjack. You play the system, know when to double-down, and eventually you get a "winner winner chicken dinner."  You'll lose some hands, but if you're smart, you can maximize your winnings, minimize losses, and have a good time.  

 

Poker is different, because you're not playing cards, you're playing people.  I tried playing poker once, lost my shirt in like 10 hands, and retreated back to the world of probabilities.  

Well in the sense that, if you get even 3 out of 7 draft picks right(with one of them being a perennial Pro Bowler stud), that's a good draft, even if its less than 50%. Its not a pure gamble. You're right though, you lose more often then you win in BJ(and any casino game)but BJ has the best house odds. Its not a crapshoot as Doug would have us think.

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Well in the sense that, if you get even 3 out of 7 draft picks right(with one of them being a perennial Pro Bowler stud), that's a good draft, even if its less than 50%. Its not a pure gamble. You're right though, you lose more often then you win in BJ(and any casino game)but BJ has the best house odds. Its not a crapshoot as Doug would have us think.

I dunno, I think you win more than you lose with BJ... but I digress...

 

Doug said it wrong.  The guy in Cleveland said it right.  He said that teams miss on draft picks all the time which is why you need to have more picks to have better odds of getting good players.

 

Crap Shoot is essentially admitting it’s random.  It’s not entirely random.

 

 

[hail2skins]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I dunno, I think you win more than you lose with BJ... but I digress...

Unless you find a blackjack game where the rules dictate that the player has the edge playing perfect strategy (a few in Vegas used to exist, but not anymore), you'll lose more often than you'll win, unless you use some sort of card-counting method. I still think the biggest weapon the casinos have is an unlimited bankroll compared to that of the average player.

 

Alas, back to the topic of confidence of the team's execs, who still suck.

 

 

 

[srtman04]

I have absolutely 0 confidence in our executives, actually it's more in the negatives now.  

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, hail2skins said:

Unless you find a blackjack game where the rules dictate that the player has the edge playing perfect strategy (a few in Vegas used to exist, but not anymore), you'll lose more often than you'll win, unless you use some sort of card-counting method. I still think the biggest weapon the casinos have is an unlimited bankroll compared to that of the average player.

 

Alas, back to the topic of confidence of the team's execs, who still suck.

 

 

 

I was making a joke about a different meaning of BJ...

 

i could write a doctoral thesis on playing blackjack in Vegas. 

[TheGreatBuzz]

21 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

Poker is different, because you're not playing cards, you're playing people.  I tried playing poker once, lost my shirt in like 10 hands, and retreated back to the world of probabilities.  

I used to love people like you.  It is how I would fund my vacation.  My wife and I used to go to Biloxi a lot.  I love playing blackjack but don't usually walk away in the positive, though I can usually manage to not lose TOO much.  Then I would walk down to a different casino, enter in a poker tournement or play a sit and go game.  I could usually win enough to cover the hotel costs, my blackjack loses, and the rest of our expenses.  I wasn't coming out with a ton of money but usually enough to cover the cost of the vacation.  

 

Thats why I would say the draft is the most like poker.  You can do really well if you know what you are doing.  Doesn't mean you win every hand, but enough to end up on top.  If you don't know what you are doing, people like me will eat you for lunch.

[Warhead36]

On 1/27/2018 at 9:13 AM, TheGreatBuzz said:

I used to love people like you.  It is how I would fund my vacation.  My wife and I used to go to Biloxi a lot.  I love playing blackjack but don't usually walk away in the positive, though I can usually manage to not lose TOO much.  Then I would walk down to a different casino, enter in a poker tournement or play a sit and go game.  I could usually win enough to cover the hotel costs, my blackjack loses, and the rest of our expenses.  I wasn't coming out with a ton of money but usually enough to cover the cost of the vacation.  

 

Thats why I would say the draft is the most like poker.  You can do really well if you know what you are doing.  Doesn't mean you win every hand, but enough to end up on top.  If you don't know what you are doing, people like me will eat you for lunch.

Yeah actually poker is the best comparison to the draft. Its like how teams like the Pats and Steelers can hit on late round picks constantly(akin to a poker player being able to win with terrible hands).

[SkinsGuy]

On 1/27/2018 at 9:13 AM, TheGreatBuzz said:

I love playing blackjack but don't usually walk away in the positive, though I can usually manage to not lose TOO much.

 

Watch for the shifty-eyed dealer, though.