2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

[JamesMadisonSkins]

It might not be sexy, but Seattle needs an OT and CB. They have no 2 or 3. But they have 4 picks in Round 5, including two early in the round. 

 

If Denzel Ward is there, I’d call Seattle and say ... give me your 2 early 5ths and a 3rd or 4th next year and move up to 13. We don’t get a coveted 3rd ... but we get trade-up ammo and at worst 4 5th round picks to load up on depth guys who could replace starters next year if they get cut in FA. Or at least compete for spots. I’m thinking CB, TE, OT, ILB ... positions not immediately needed but areas we could use depth and upside at long term. Just a thought. 

 

1.18 - Derrius Guice RB LSU

2.12 - Tim Settle NT Va Tech

4.9 - Mark Andrews TE Arkansas

5.4 - Bradley Bozeman C Alabama

5.5 - Kevin Tolliver, CB LSU

5.9 - Quin Blanding, FS UVA

5.26 - Dorian O’Daniel, ILB Clemson

6.31 - Javon Rolland-Jones, Edge Ark St

 

Example through 6 rounds 

[jbird2]

How realistic is Roquan Smith dropping in the 1st and taking Penny - RB in the 2nd?

 

I think this is my fav scenario.

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Smith apparently has some medical red flags that may cause him to drop like Foster last year.

[jbird2]

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Smith apparently has some medical red flags that may cause him to drop like Foster last year.

 

Hmmmmm

 

We got Jon Allen because he dropped due to injury concern, and while it was not a shoulder injury, he did miss a lot of time.

 

I still like Smith at LB, and that is going to be a bigger need than the DL at the moment with Brown bing signed for 1 year, and Phil coming back next year @ NT.

 

 

[skinny21]

2 minutes ago, jbird said:

 

Hmmmmm

 

We got Jon Allen because he dropped due to injury concern, and while it was not a shoulder injury, he did miss a lot of time.

 

I still like Smith at LB, and that is going to be a bigger need than the DL at the moment with Brown bing signed for 1 year, and Phil coming back next year @ NT.

 

 

Brown is signed for 3 actually, but his cap number is pretty high in years 2 and 3. 

[jbird2]

25 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

Brown is signed for 3 actually, but his cap number is pretty high in years 2 and 3. 

 

Ahh forgot about that.....

I am excited about the prospects of Mikah/James/Vea/Payne @13 and if they are all still no the board, would love to see us drop a few.

 

For some reason I am high on Penny @RB as well.

[HTTRDynasty]

Sign Hankins.  Draft this ball-hawk at 13.  And we will have a top 10 defense in the league this year by any and every metric.  I'm calling it now.

 

 

Use rounds 2 and 4 (or 3 if we trade back in round 2) to draft RB and OG.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

For me at RB, it's either Guice in Round 1 (hopefully in a trade-back), Chubb in Round 2 ... or hope and pray that Walton falls to Round 4, because there aren't any true "impact" guys that I think you can pencil in starting day 1 from R4 and beyond other than Walton.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

37 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Sign Hankins.  Draft this ball-hawk at 13.  And we will have a top 10 defense in the league this year by any and every metric.  I'm calling it now.

 

 

I don't disagree with this statement. But I do want to point out that:

 

Sign Hankins scenario:

- Assuming a 3 year $27 million contract with $9m guaranteed

- Using Spotrac calculator with an $8m '18 hit and $9m '19 hit, that leaves us with $14 million in 2019 cap space and $10 million in 2018 cap

- Assume we spend $3m in season and $4m for our draft class and roll-over $2m to next year as a result: $16 million in 2019 cap space

- Now, let's add the assumed 2019 cap hit (rough) of the 2018 class which isn't currently factored into 2019 - take away $5 million ... now you're at $11 million

- Now, we will go into 2019 draft with about 9-11 picks. Likely 2019 needs for signing that draft class will be around $5-6 million, so now you're down to $5-6 million in cap space

- Assume you need to keep about $3-4 million for in-season spending, now you're at $2-3 million in SPENDABLE cap space

- Assuming you only try to re-sign your top 3 FAs ... you have Scherff ($10-12m APY), Preston Smith ($5-8m APY), and Crowder ($5-8m APY) as rough guestimates (depending on 2018 performance) of the needs for APY ... so about $20 to $28 million in APY just for those guys. But in terms of 2019 cap hits on the front-end of those deals, you're at about $15 million on the low-end and $22 million on the high-end.

 

So, sign Hankins, and you're effective 2019 "free" money to spend is $2 million. You'll need between $15 and $22 million in effective cap space to just bring back Scherff, Crowder and Preston Smith.

 

Yes, you can cut McClain and save a few million ... and you could part with Reed and Davis and save about $10 million ... and of course Norman would save you $8 million or so ... but if your plan is to sign Hankins and put yourself in a position to either let Scherff/Crowder/Smith walk or cut Norman/Reed/Davis ... you're NOT in a good position and that's a bad spot to be in ... you'd better be using this year's draft to find next year's replacements at those positions ....

 

Don't sign Hankins:

- Using Spotrac, you're current cap is $22 million in 2019

- Sign your 2018 draft class and spend $3-4 million in-season for injuries and roster moves, roll over $10 million to the 2019 cap, making your cap space now $32 million

- Assume the same above numbers of $5 million for 2018 draft-class salaries in 2019 and $5-6m for 2019 draft-class pool and $3m for in-season flexibility in 2019 and you're at an effective cap spending rate of $18 million

- You are now in a position to A) re-sign your big 3 free agents next year, and only have to part with a Davis/McClain type to fit them in if they fall into the high-end

 

This is assuming the Spotrac assumption for the cap increase is accurate. Obviuolsy it can change. But these are the decisions that Eric Shaeffer is currently considering when looking at signing Hankins. It's really not a smart move in the long-run unless you plan to completely overhaul the roster next year and part with Norman and Reed no matter what. And even then, it's a tight fit.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Whether or not you sign Hankins or not ... likely parting-of-ways options for 2019 are as follows:

- Vernon Davis: $5.0 million

- Terrell McClain: $3.2 million

- Orlando Scandrick: $3.7 million

 

Those are the most likely IMO.

 

Then you have:

Josh Norman: $8.5 million

Jordan Reed: $6.1 million

Ryan Kerrigan: $10.7 million

 

Kerrigan will likely never be outright cut. He will be renegotiated. But you never know.

 

That being said, if we stand pat with not signing anyone else major in FA, and roll over about $10 million, and cut Davis and McClain, we will have $40 million in cap space going into 2019. Add in the draft-pools for 2018 and 2019 and their hits and you're at $30 million, which is plenty to re-sign your guys and maybe even add another impact player in free agency and head into the draft with a large number of picks to address your depth and needs, etc. in 2019. Nice position to be in, actually.

 

Signing Hankins changes the picture substantially, because it's ultimately an $18 million swing in cap space for 2019 ... his 2019 hit and the $$ we use this year that we won't roll into 2019.

 

And this isn't the FA thread, I know, but these are really important points to make when addressing this year's draft class.  

[HTTRDynasty]

@JamesMadisonSkins

 

That's a very detailed look at our cap situation next year.  Thanks for putting that together.

 

First, I may be alone in this, but I am completely fine with letting Crowder walk next year.  This past year really soured me on Crowder, who had several bad plays (fumbles/drops) at huge moments throughout the year, and kind of gives off the body language that it's not a big deal to him that he did.  I think we can find a relatively cheap replacement at slot WR elsewhere.  Now, that can change if he puts up a great season this year, and if that happens, the decision between keeping him, Smith, or Scherff would be tougher, but I'm not betting on him doing that.

 

Second, here's a more exhaustive list of who we can cut next year (pre-June 1st and post-June 1st) and their savings according to OverTheCap:

TE Vernon Davis - $5 mil cap savings (no benefit from post June 1st)

DL Terrell McClain - $3.25 mil cap savings (or $3.437 mil post June 1st)

DL Stacy McGee  - $2.4 mil cap savings (or $4.0 mil post June 1st)

CB Orlando Scandrick - $3.75 mil savings (no benefit from post June 1st)

 

That's $14.4 mil savings from easy cuts. McGee is an obvious choice to designate as a post June 1st cut, so savings would likely be $16 mil.  

 

Then, there's the tough cuts:

CB Josh Norman - $8.5 mil cap savings (or $13.937 mil post June 1st)

TE Jordan Reed - $4.743 mil cap savings (or $8.343 mil post June 1st)

 

If Norman has another year like he had last year, I could see us either trading him or designating him as a post June 1st cut.  Reed is trickier.  I think I'd rather trade or cut Reed than trade or cut Davis if Reed has another season like the one he had last year.  Either way, that's around $5 million in savings if we cut Reed or Davis, or $8 mil if we designate Reed as a post June 1st cut.  That would obviously leave us with some holes at CB and/or TE, so I wouldn't cut either one except as a last resort, but I would definitely look into their trade markets.

 

Lastly, the salary cap next year will likely increase by $10-15 million.  Even if we don't cut Reed/Norman, that gives us about $26-$31 million to work with, without considering the amount we can roll over from this year.  I'd say that's more than enough to find a way to sign Hankins this offseason and re-sign Smith and Scherff.

[mistertim]

3 hours ago, jbird said:

How realistic is Roquan Smith dropping in the 1st and taking Penny - RB in the 2nd?

 

I think this is my fav scenario.

 

 

 

Smith dropping is possible but not all that likely...but if the medical issues are legit then I could see it.

 

I think Penny will definitely be there in the 2nd but I think he'd be a reach there unless we traded back. Chubb and others are likely to be there when we pick and I'd take Chubb over Penny all day.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

So with all of that jibberish I just spewed, here's a cliff-notes version:

 

Sign Hankins to a 3 year $27m type of deal:

- 2019 effective spending money is likely to be $2 million before cuts

- I think it's safe to say that after 2018 you part with Davis and McClain, saving a combined $8 million in cap space, so you'll have $10 million to spend

- If this year's FA is any indication, you're likely talking about an average per year (APY) for those 3 in combined contracts of $28 million. Which would result in anywhere from $15 million to $22 million in actual 2019 cap hits. You'll need to come up with around $5 million to 12 million in actual cap space JUST to fit them in ... from a combination of: Josh Norman ($8 million), Jordan Reed ($6 million), Orlando Scandrick ($4 million)

- You inevitably go into the draft with 11 picks but needing to replace some impact players and really re-loading your roster depth since your off-season will likely NOT bring in any additional depth or impact players since your focus will be to create space to bring back 3 of your own.

 

Don't sign Hankins:

- Your 2019 effective spending money, assuming the same scenario where McClain and Davis are just common-sense cuts saving $8 million, is $26 million

- You go into the off-season with a comfortable amount to re-sign your big-3 with some additional money to spend on roster depth and even an impact player or two

- You go into the 2019 draft with 11 picks to load up on future needs (2020 and beyond have fewer long-term commitments)

7 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

@JamesMadisonSkins

 

Lastly, the salary cap next year will likely increase by $10-15 million.  Even if we don't cut Reed/Norman, that gives us about $26-$31 million to work with, without considering the amount we can roll over from this year.  I'd say that's more than enough to find a way to sign Hankins this offseason and re-sign Smith and Scherff.

Ah, just posted essentially what you just said but wrapping it into how the cap would be impacted. But to clear things up, the cap space currently laid out for 2019 on Spotrac INCLUDES a cap increase from $178 million for 2018 to $190 million for 2019, so that's built in.

 

Our current cap liability is $161 million on a $178 million cap for 2018

Our 2019 cap liability is currently $168 million on an assumed $190 million cap, hence the "current" $22 million number that I used as the basis for this argument.

[HTTRDynasty]

6 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Ah, just posted essentially what you just said but wrapping it into how the cap would be impacted. But to clear things up, the cap space currently laid out for 2019 on Spotrac INCLUDES a cap increase from $178 million for 2018 to $190 million for 2019, so that's built in.

 

So basically, the difference in our "Sign Hankins" scenarios is that I cut McGee as a post-June 1st designation, and I don't retain Crowder, right?  And if that's not enough, I cut/trade either Reed or Norman depending on which one steps up this year.  You still don't think that's enough to find room for Hankins with no other major cuts?

 

EDIT:  Also, it's not like we HAVE to give Hankins $9 million in his first year.  We can structure it so that the cap hit is $9 mil or so this year and do similar to what the Colts did, giving us the option to cut him next year if he doesn't work out here.  If he does, we can keep him at the cost of letting whoever of our big name players don't step up next year go.

[Cypress]

3 hours ago, jbird said:

How realistic is Roquan Smith dropping in the 1st and taking Penny - RB in the 2nd?

 

I think this is my fav scenario.

 

 

I'm with you. HUUGE man crush on Smith. Would take him in a heartbeat at #13 unless James or Fitzpatrick is there. 

 

Penny is one of my favourite RB's too. Pass blocking is very suspect but even Kareem Hunt was only asked to pass block 32 times last year. Any of Guice, Michel or Penny but yeh, only Penny will be available at #44 I think 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

14 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

So basically, the difference in our "Sign Hankins" scenarios is that I cut McGee as a post-June 1st designation, and I don't retain Crowder, right?  And if that's not enough, I cut/trade either Reed or Norman depending on which one steps up this year.  You still don't think that's enough to find room for Hankins with no other major cuts?

Yeah, I think an extension for Scherff would offer a lower 2019 cap hit and that's obviously ideal. But if we just pick up his 5th year option, I think that's somewhere around a $12 million number/cap hit for 2019. And assuming Smith has a solid year, I think he'll be commanding a lot on the open market, which is why getting an extension done now might be the best option. If Smith blows up and hits double-digit sacks this year, he's going to be looking at a huge contract to the tune of $9-10 million per year. If he has another solid but let's say 7-8 sack season, he's still likely to get $6-8 million based purely on how this off-season went with contracts. Even if we let Crowder walk, that's anywhere from $14 to $20 million (depending on Scherff's 5th year or an extension) in terms of cap-hits for 2019 even without Crowder.

 

I guess I Could see a scenario where we let Smith walk if he doesn't have a double-digit sack season but wants that higher number, especially if Ryan Anderson steps up this year.

 

However, IF the internal decision is to wait and see on Smith this year and risk losing him next year, I've got to imagine the team has a plan in place to draft an EDGE somewhere in the mid-rounds this year to at least offer some rotational ability behind Anderson in 2019 if we let Smith walk.

 

If we just bring back Scherff, we're still going to need anywhere from $10 million to $12 million in 2019 cap space.

 

Ultimately, the point I'm trying to make is Hankins signing puts you in a corner. No doubt it upgrades the defense and opens up the 1st round to true BPA on defense. But it really does tie your hands for 2019. Even if you can wiggle your way free of some room, you are going to be forced to make decisions on either letting Smith or Crowder walk in Free Agency, or bringing them back and signing nobody significant and still cutting one of Reed and Norman. I don't think you want to go into 2019 facing that scenario. Plus, you wont have any money to spend on free agents next year. If you let Hankins go elsewhere, and get a NT in the draft this year, you may not be as dominant on defense in 2018, but you keep your options open in 2019 and beyond by not only having $$ to re-sign your "big 3" but also having the flexibility to go out and sign some other high-level talent all while not forcing yourself to make a decision on Reed or Norman.

 

We can agree that maybe we let Smith and Crowder walk and they aren't essential long-term pieces, especially if they have down seasons. But signing Hankins will prevent you from going and signing any major FAs regardless. Whereas, if you just bring back Scherff next year, you'll have $15-16 million to spend in true cap space on free agents, should you choose to go that route.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

FWIW, Browns supposedly leaning toward Josh Allen at #1. Meaning Darnold likely goes to Giants at #2. And Rosen to Jets at #3.

 

And the run on QBs would be on. Now would Buffalo trade-up to #4/5/6 to try to get Mayfield before the Pats do?

[HTTRDynasty]

@JamesMadisonSkins I definitely would want the team to extend Smith this offseason, but there's no way I would do that if I was Smith's agent.  Smith was on pace to have a monster season when Jonathan Allen was healthy.  If I'm his agent, I gamble on Smith blowing up similar to what Demarcus Lawerence did this past year.  If that happens, we'd likely have to tag him.  If I was in the front office, I would offer up to $11 million APY for 5 years this offseason, something that would make the agent stop and consider whether he wants to gamble on Smith AND Allen staying healthy AND Smith putting up huge numbers this season.  We could lower his cap hit the first two years to help us keep as many impact players as possible.

 

Trying to extend Scherff is a given.  But as I said before, I would let Crowder walk.

 

You're right that signing Hankins would put us into a corner in 2019 (if we can't extend Smith), but how realistic do you think it is that Reed stays healthy this season AND Norman goes back to playing like he's worth his contract?  I think either one would be a fairly obvious cut next offseason if either one gave us what they did this past season.  That would make it easy to sign and keep Hankins.  However, if they both ball out as Reed did in 2015 and Josh did in 2016 (unlikely IMO), I would obviously keep them both and let Hankins walk, assuming we are able to structure the contract similar to what the Colts did with him (which we should be able to do).  We'd be in a much better position if we were looking for DL talent in the draft next offseason compared to trying to find one in the draft this year, because next year is supposed to be one of the best and deepest DL drafts in recent memory.  Some people have 7 DL going in the top 10 in 2019.  

 

So, if we keep Norman and Reed next year, let Hankins be a one-year rental to see how our defense performs with a true run-stuffing NT who can occasionally rush the passer.  And, if we let either Norman or Reed go, let us keep Hankins and get whatever secondary/TE talent falls (if we don't draft those positions this year, which we easily could if we sign Hankins) at other positions in next year's draft because of the run on DL.

[skins2victory]

Im surprised that not too many people are talking about Da’Shawn Hand....

 

Here is my ideal draft scenario. Trade down to around 22ish. That should be far enough down to get us an additional 2nd and 3rd. 

 

Take Guice with the late first round pick.  Now we have 2 second rounders. Take Price, and Hand, and then Settle with our 3rd. 

 

After 3 rounds and 4 picks, we now have a stand out RB. A stud interior O-lineman to complete our line, who can play G or C. Hand, a very athletic Alabama DE who could be a steal in the 2nd. Very high ceiling, who I feel isn’t getting enough attention. Settle a run stuffing NT, who is surely needed to help in the run game. That would be a great first 3 rounds.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, skins2victory said:

Im surprised that not too many people are talking about Da’Shawn Hand....

 

Here is my ideal draft scenario. Trade down to around 22ish. That should be far enough down to get us an additional 2nd and 3rd. 

 

Like Hand. The "other" Bama DL. He's more of Jonathan Allen mold than NT/Da'Ron Payne. Nice rotational piece, but not necessarily a priority IMO, unless you think Ionidis can play NT.

 

You'd be happy to get a 2nd to go to 22 ... not gonna get a 3rd too.

[skins2victory]

12 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Like Hand. The "other" Bama DL. He's more of Jonathan Allen mold than NT/Da'Ron Payne. Nice rotational piece, but not necessarily a priority IMO, unless you think Ionidis can play NT.

 

You'd be happy to get a 2nd to go to 22 ... not gonna get a 3rd too.

No Hand would be a DE. Like I said, Settle in the 3rd to be the NT.

16 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

You'd be happy to get a 2nd to go to 22 ... not gonna get a 3rd too.

Maybe I’m playing too many draft simulators lol. But in the simulators I am getting those offers every time.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

15 minutes ago, skins2victory said:

No Hand would be a DE. Like I said, Settle in the 3rd to be the NT.

Maybe I’m playing too many draft simulators lol. But in the simulators I am getting those offers every time.

Yeah, unless it's for a QB, the most likely scenario there is to get back a 2nd rounder. The differential for example between 22 and 13 is 350 points, which is equal to pick 2.24.

 

I guess if you're going back to the late 20's you could make a good case for getting a 3rd rounder back as well, since the 2nd and 3rd are going to be later in their respective rounds. So say someone like Jackson falls and NO wants to jump to 13 for him, I would absolutely expect to get 1/2/3 for that move.

 

But if you're talking about going to 22/23 for a team looking to move up for say, an OT or a CB, then you're probably looking at their 2nd and that's it.

[Est.1974]

More than sure it is very easy for us to navigate around our 2019 cap space, fact is we aren't major players and we have our QB locked in. Regarding Hankins, all the talk is that we want him on a one year deal, i would be amazed if we gave him a multi year deal nearing 30mil now. Can't see it. 

 

On the draft, starting to like our options at 13. Go outright BPA, someone is going to fall into our lap again, then use a 2019 third to jump back up from 44 as high as that gets us if needed. Effectively bag 2 first rounders. Pool a couple of later round picks to edge back into the 4th round, or better our 4th to a lower 3rd and move forward in the draft that way too.

 

The use our very final picks on nutcases and high end talents with major issues and red flags attached. Worth a risk and fun to see play out. 

[actorguy1]

4 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Yeah, I think an extension for Scherff would offer a lower 2019 cap hit and that's obviously ideal. But if we just pick up his 5th year option, I think that's somewhere around a $12 million number/cap hit for 2019. And assuming Smith has a solid year, I think he'll be commanding a lot on the open market, which is why getting an extension done now might be the best option. If Smith blows up and hits double-digit sacks this year, he's going to be looking at a huge contract to the tune of $9-10 million per year. If he has another solid but let's say 7-8 sack season, he's still likely to get $6-8 million based purely on how this off-season went with contracts. Even if we let Crowder walk, that's anywhere from $14 to $20 million (depending on Scherff's 5th year or an extension) in terms of cap-hits for 2019 even without Crowder.

 

I guess I Could see a scenario where we let Smith walk if he doesn't have a double-digit sack season but wants that higher number, especially if Ryan Anderson steps up this year.

 

However, IF the internal decision is to wait and see on Smith this year and risk losing him next year, I've got to imagine the team has a plan in place to draft an EDGE somewhere in the mid-rounds this year to at least offer some rotational ability behind Anderson in 2019 if we let Smith walk.

 

If we just bring back Scherff, we're still going to need anywhere from $10 million to $12 million in 2019 cap space.

 

Ultimately, the point I'm trying to make is Hankins signing puts you in a corner. No doubt it upgrades the defense and opens up the 1st round to true BPA on defense. But it really does tie your hands for 2019. Even if you can wiggle your way free of some room, you are going to be forced to make decisions on either letting Smith or Crowder walk in Free Agency, or bringing them back and signing nobody significant and still cutting one of Reed and Norman. I don't think you want to go into 2019 facing that scenario. Plus, you wont have any money to spend on free agents next year. If you let Hankins go elsewhere, and get a NT in the draft this year, you may not be as dominant on defense in 2018, but you keep your options open in 2019 and beyond by not only having $$ to re-sign your "big 3" but also having the flexibility to go out and sign some other high-level talent all while not forcing yourself to make a decision on Reed or Norman.

 

We can agree that maybe we let Smith and Crowder walk and they aren't essential long-term pieces, especially if they have down seasons. But signing Hankins will prevent you from going and signing any major FAs regardless. Whereas, if you just bring back Scherff next year, you'll have $15-16 million to spend in true cap space on free agents, should you choose to go that route.

Sign Hankins in 2018. Most likely a one year deal. Drop Mclain this season. Extend Scherff, resign Smith and Crowder. Drop Norman and Scandrick. And make secondary a priority in 2019 draft with the current 11 draft picks. Continue to be conservative in Free Agency next year. Success!!!

[joeken24]

10 hours ago, SemperFi Skins said:

 

Crowell is on the Jets now.

Cool. Thanks.  I wonder if Duke is on the way out too?