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JamesMadisonSkins

By JamesMadisonSkins
in The Tailgate

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JamesMadisonSkins

JamesMadisonSkins

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Im staying away from Bell as much as possible this year. I had that same mentality as JMS last year. Waited the 4 games and only got 6 games out of him before he got hurt. No doubt hes a monster on the field but for that price im targeting someone else this season.

For Bell it was only 2 games, unless you're referring to Gurley.

 

Fantasy is a funny game. Last year I drafted Devonta Freeman for like $3 ... then released him after Week 1 for David Johnson. Then Freeman blew up, and I released Johnson ... BUT was able to get him back before he really broke out mid-season. David Johnson then carried me into the title game and is my top keeper. BUT, after I had released Freeman, I thought I had made the mistake of the year. Which I kind of did, but the irony is, the guy that picked Freeman up off of waivers, actually released David Johnson, who I picked up, released, and picked back up again before he broke out. I guess it all worked out. Oh and I beat that guy in the semi-finals :)

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nonniey

nonniey

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I joined a two QB league a few years ago. In my experience you dont win these leagues unless you have two above average QBs.

 

In a regular league i would say nice draft. But in a 2 QB league think you should have gone QB way earlier IMO. My first two picks would have been QB unless they very good ones were gone. Not knowing the draft i would think you would have been able to get two top 10 QBs in the first two rounds.

Maybe but same strategy worked for me last year (Thank you Walsh for 23 pts in the championship - yeah saved by a kicker). Additionally, 5 QBs went in the first 5 picks so I went with JULIO Jones who I had as the #2 overall and another 5 QBs went before my 2d pick so the value just wasn't there for QB. (I had 3 WRs and 3 QBs targeted for my first pick).

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Reaper Skins

Reaper Skins

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In the few mock drafts ive done Im pretty shocked how low Garcon is going.  Got him in like the 15th round of a 12 team draft.  i know hes not gonna be a huge focal point of the offense but considering that its a contract year for him and defenses will be focused on reed and desean i think he could be a great player to have on the bench for spot matchups....

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bobandweave

bobandweave

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Anyone else playing MFL10 leagues aka best ball leagues? Just completed two real drafts this week, in the middle of two others. I play in every type of league out there. In a keeper dynasty league, play in a superflex league, play in ppr leagues too. Been playing FF for over a decade and love it but just turned onto these.

 

So sleepers to me are all based off ADP data so here are three WR's I like to end the season ahead of where they are now

 

WR56 - Chris Hogan pick 12.09
WR60 - Sammie Coates pick 13.08
WR67 - Pierre Garcon pick 14.04

 

I would bet each of them produce better numbers those those rankings

 

Three WR's that I feel are undraftable based on where they are going

 

WR17 - Demaryius Thomas draft pick 3.08
WR23 - Doug Baldwin pick 4.11
WR42 - Stefon Diggs pick 9.07

Now I have an impossible time drafting WR's on teams that I do not like the QBs on. Mark Sanchez isn't going to produce enough to support Thomas's ranking. I'd rather go with Emmanual Sanders at WR27 pick 6.06 over wasting a 3rd round pick on DT.

Doug Baldwin's inflated numbers last year are not sustainable. Last year on 104 targets he had 14 TDs, never going to repeat that ever. Not worth a 4th round pick to me

Diggs I could have thrown in Treadwell is on a team with a horrible QB and when your QB stinks like Bridgewater he won't support a starting WR on your team. Avoid Viking receivers

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Fan since a Fetus

Fan since a Fetus

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I'll try my hand at this:

 

QB Sleeper: Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr, Tyrod Taylor

QB Bust: Blake Bortles (I worry about Jags garbage time stats last year)

 

RB Sleeper: Josh Ferguson, Matt Jones (still going here), Wendell Smallwood, Duke Johnson, Jordan Howard

RB Bust: Devonta Freeman, Jamaal Charles

 

WR Sleeper: Tyler Lockett, Brandin Cooks (84 rec last year, but feel people aren't paying attention to him yet), Kelvin Benjamin, Bruce Ellington (deep deep sleeper)

WR Bust: Jordan Matthews, Doug Baldwin (not huge reaches here, but feel they will have worse years than last), Dez Bryant

 

TE sleeper: Coby Fleener, Clive Walford, Zach Miller

TE Bust:  Tyler Eifert (cannot stay healthy), Gary Barnidge

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JamesMadisonSkins

JamesMadisonSkins

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Been putting a ton of research into fantasy recently ... I'm fairly convinced I've got it down ...

 

RB:

1. Jeremy Hill - will be cheaper, but could re-claim a top 10 spot at RB.

2. DeMarco Murray - Again, cheap but recent history of strong success

3. Jamaal Charles - being under-drafted, but in limited exposure has always had big numbers

4. Matt Jones - will get a chance to be a bell-cow RB in a top level offense

5. Le'Veon Bell - only if he's going for lower than his value because of the suspension, but you'll want him at season's end

 

WR:

1. Randall Cobb - gonna break back out with Jordy back and he's going for very cheap

2. Davantae Parker - breakout, cheap

3. Donte Moncrief - he'll emerge as a big #2 in IND

4. Kevin White - breakout, cheap

5. John Brown - breakout, cheap

6. Doug Baldwin - last 8 games last year was #2 WR, and going in 15-20 WR range with T10 potential

7. Josh Gordon - again, if you can get him cheap, huge upside with RGIII at QB

8. Sammy Watkins - depends on price, but could be T10 and is going for 15-20 right now

 

TE:

1. Jordan Reed - homer pick, but he has legitimate top end production potential and is 3-4 rounds/$30 cheaper than Gronk

2. Coby Fleener - huge upside in Saints offense

3. Dwayne Allen - huge upside with Fleener out from under him and they paid him, so he'll get looks

4. Jimmy Graham - silly to list this, but he is an afterthought just a year after being dominant

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JamesMadisonSkins

JamesMadisonSkins

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In my big $$, #1 league, 10 team half point PPR, I'm keeping David Johnson and Todd Gurley for $20 each.

 

GIven that I'll have 2 top 5 RBs with $180 to spend, I plan to target Le'Veon Bell (had him last 3 years but can only keep 2) and hoping to get him discounted for about $45-50. Then my goal is to get either DeMarco Murray, Jeremy Hill or Matt Jones for $15 or so ... to round out a very strong 4 RB ...

 

Which will allow me to go hard after the breakouts at WR. I want to get 2 of DJax, Baldwin, Cobb and Kelvin Benjamin to anchor my WR1 and WR2 and get Parker, Moncrief, Gordon and John Brown/Kevin White to round out a strong bench. I wouldn't start any of those 4, but all would have upside. Then I plan to go Jordan Reed at TE to pair with Kirk Cousins at QB. Based on Yahoo's avg. auction values for each player, I can get all of those guys with about $25 to spare, which I think is plenty of contingency to make it work. It helps that I can get David Johnson and Todd Gurley for $40 when they're going for $120 combined at full cost.

 

Long way of saying, RBs are few and far between, so if you can load up on 2-3 strong players (I luck out due to awesome keeper costs on the #1 and #3 RBs), then you can go hard on breakouts at WR with the depth that's there.

 

Current avg. cost for the following on Yahoo auctions:

Josh Gordon: $6

Kelvin Benjamin: $17

Randall Cobb: $12

Doug Baldwin: $9

John Brown: $6

Kevin White: $3

Davantae Parker: $4

Donte Moncrief: $5

 

Give me any 5-6 of the above WRs and I'm thrilled. You could have those 5-6 WRs for the same it would cost to get Julio Jones ($60), OBJ ($58), Dez ($54), Hopkins ($52) ... you get the point. Pair those WRs with some stud RBs (Bell, Johnson, Gurley, Lacy, AP, Charles, etc.) and you'll have some strong depth and lots of breakout potential

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JamesMadisonSkins

JamesMadisonSkins

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In doing my usual auction research this year, I've gone through the Yahoo platform (what my league uses) and listed through players likely to get drafted, by position, in order of their "yahoo auction value" ... and I've also recorded the actual "average auction cost" that each player has been drafted for at this point through all drafts on the Yahoo platform. I've then gone through and noted the biggest "bargains." Now you can argue whether or not Yahoo values are the best values for players, but it's at least a starting point. Granted this is for standard scoring systems (my league is half point PPR), but it's the closest to reality I can mimic. Given my league uses Yahoo and the values are provided by Yahoo in the draft window, I know my league-mates are at least seeing what the values are, and thus, are likely influenced by THAT price v. any other price ranking.

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JamesMadisonSkins

JamesMadisonSkins

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Running Back:

1. Ryan Matthews (+15) - Yahoo (22), Drafted (7)

2. Jeremy Hill (+15) - Yahoo (23), Drafted (8)

3. Matt Jones (+13) - Yahoo (18), Drafted (5)

4. Jonathan Stewart (+13) - Yahoo 22), Drafted (9)

5. Latavius Murray (+13) - Yahoo (22), Drafted (9)

6. Jay Ajayi (+12) - Yahoo (18), Drafted (6)

7. Matt Forte (+11) - Yahoo (28), Drafted (17)

8. Chris Ivory (+10) - Yahoo (13), Drafted (3)

9. Dion Lewis (+10) - Yahoo (14), Drafted (4)

10. DeMarco Murray (+10) - Yahoo (22), Drafted (12)

 

Others:
​11. CJ Anderson (+10) - Yahoo (35), Drafted (25)

12. Mark Ingram (+10) - Yahoo (38), Drafted (28)

18. Eddie Lacy (+7) - Yahoo (36), Drafted (29)

26. Ezekiel Elliot (+4) - Yahoo (53), Drafted (49)


Wide Receiver:

1. Devante Parker (+14) - Yahoo (18), Drafted (4)

2. Jeremy Maclin (+14) - Yahoo (22), Drafted (8)

3. Golden Tate (+13) - Yahoo (23), Drafted (10)

4. Jordan Matthews (+13) - Yahoo (18), Drafted (5)

5. John Brown (+13) - Yahoo (16), Drafted (3)

6. Allen Hurns (+12) - Yahoo (18), Drafted (6)

7. Michael Floyd (+12) - Yahoo (18), Drafted (6)

8. Jarvis Landry (+11) - Yahoo (21), Drafted (10)

9. Tyler Lockett (+11) - Yahoo (14), Drafted (3)

10. Doug Baldwin (+11) - Yahoo (23), Drafted (12)

 

Others:

11. Randall Cobb (+11) - Yahoo (23), Drafted (12)

15. Donte Moncrief (+9) - Yahoo (12), Drafted (3)

16. Desean Jackson (+9) - Yahoo (12), Drafted (3)

17. TY Hilton (+8) - Yahoo (33), Drafted (25)

19. Keenan Allen (+7) - Yahoo (36), Drafted (29)

31. Demaryius Thomas (+5) - Yahoo (36), Drafted (31)


Titles will be won by teams that have some of these guys on the back end of their rosters. Cobb (12), Moncrief (3), Allen (29), Parker (4) as your WR2-3-4-5 gives you the ability to overpay on someone like Brown, OBJ or Julio up top. OR load up at RB (my strategy) since there's fewer options there.

 

At RB, Hill (5), Jones (5), and DeMarco (12) would be a very very good RB 2-3-4 and would allow you to spend big on a David Johnson or Todd Gurley for your RB1 spot.

 

Will some of these guys go for more? Absolutely. I imagine at Training Camps proceed guys like Matt Jones will start going for closer to their $18 value ... but these are just averages across all drafts in Yahoo ... but if you set a goal to get 3 RBs and 3 WRs from each list for those rough costs, you're set.


Fantasy is a fickle game ... and people have a "what did you do for me lately" mentality ... another smart move is to go to last year's fantasy results and look at the top points performers from Weeks 10-17 ... why? Because those are weeks that many fantasy owners tap out. That's changing a bit with DFS prominence ... but I bet most on here don't realize that Doug Baldwin put up massive numbers in weeks 10-17 and in that stretch was the #2 WR in all of fantasy ... but most fantasy players will remember his first half that put him in the 25-30 range of WRs, and is likely why he's being drafted in that range now.

 

Jeremy Hill finished decent last year. The year before he was a Top 5 RB. You can get him for less than $10. DeMarco Murray was the RB1 in 2014 but in that mess that was Philly, he fell apart and was a total bust. Sure, he will split some with Derrick Henry, but in an up and coming offense, he could break back into the Top 10 easily. But he can be had for $12 right now. If you drafted Hill and Murray for a total of $22 ... that's 1/3 what you would likely spend to get the RB1 Todd Gurley.

 

I know this is geared toward Auction style but I would imagine similar bargains can be had in standard drafts as well.


I meant to post that as 3 separate posts but it combined it. Hate how ES does that sometimes ... didn't mean for the novel.

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dfitzo53

dfitzo53

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2 minutes ago, MLSKINS said:

I just renewed the Extremeskins 2 League. It's the fifth season. Giving two weeks for current players to re-join. After that, I'm opening it up.

I can see it in my Yahoo page.  Is there anything I need to do to confirm the spot?

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dfitzo53

dfitzo53

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2 hours ago, MLSKINS said:

Two questions...

Are you looking on mobile?

Are you in more than one league?

Nope, not mobile.  I am in more than one league though.

 

It shows it in the section of the screen with all my leagues that are ready to go but have not drafted yet.  I'm assuming that means I'm in, I'm just double-checking so I don't accidentally get left out in the cold.

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JamesMadisonSkins

JamesMadisonSkins

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Trying to get the ball rolling a bit on hypotheticals and general discussion ...

In my main league (half PPR, QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, FL, FL) I have a few keeper options on a $220 auction cap.

1. David Johnson - $20 ... 2. Todd Gurley - $20 ... 3. Le'Veon Bell - $45 ... 4. Jordan Reed - $20 ... and you can ONLY keep TWO

So all along it's been a no-brainer for me ... Johnson + Gurley for $40 total and start with $180 in cap space. Before the Bell suspension I was going to aggressively target him in a re-draft ... willing to go as high as $65-70 to get him knowing I would have the RB1, RB2 and RB3 for just $100-110 total. Now that he's facing the suspension, I still will target him, but only if he's in the $35-45 range. I also plan to go hard after DeMarco Murray, Eddie Lacy and/or Ezekiel Elliot depending on whether or not I get Bell. Basically, looking to take advantage of my great start and stack 4 starting RBs to pair with 2 WR. My goal at WR is to target breakouts and good values (Cobb, Cooks, Watkins, Baldwin, Tate) and then a bunch of breakouts like Parker, Moncrief, J. Brown, Kevin White, Laquan Treadwell, etc.

So that's my team building strategy. Anyway, been reading a couple pieces on Gurley being overdrafted. In a terrible offense, he is an outlier, but historically, he's just unlikely to be a Top 5 RB this year. Okay, that's fine. I'm only spending $20 to keep him ... he's going for $60+ in drafts. If he's a 12-15 RB that's fine at that price. Anyway ... in our league we can transfer 1 player to another team that needs keepers for a fee. Usually a win/win when you have a guy with multiple keepers, willing to part with one for a fee that still makes them cheaper than drafting them. So I just got offered $30 from someone for either David Johnson or Todd Gurley. They'd give me $30 to my cap (so I'd start with $250 rather than $220) ... and they'd lose $30 (Start with $190 instead of $220) then pay $20 to keep them (their keeper price). So basically they'd pay $50 total for either of those guys (both going for $60+) so it's a win/win. I make $30 on my cap and can keep someone else on my team for a decent value (in this case Bell, although I'd hear arguments for Reed).

In this scenario I would then keep Bell for $45. So I'd start with $250 ... and keep Bell ($45) and Johnson ($20) and sit at $185 to start ... plenty of money to make big splashes with Zeke/DeMarco/Lacy to round out my 4 starting RBs. I would basically have Johnson, Bell, Elliot and Murray as my RB1 and 2 and Flex1 and 2 ... and still have $115 to spend on the rest of my roster.

Do I sit tight, keep Johnson/Gurley and start with $180 ... or do I sell high on Gurley, use the sale price to keep Bell and Johnson and start with $185?

Sorry for the novel. In most cases I kind of know what I want to do, but like seeing others scenarios and hope this can likewise get other's fantasy juices flowing.

 

 

 

 

 

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JamesMadisonSkins

JamesMadisonSkins

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Built two teams off the above principal using current Yahoo auction rates.
Team 1:
QB: Derek Carr ($4), Kirk Cousins ($3)
RB: David Johnson ($20-K), Ezekiel Elliot ($50), Le'Veon Bell ($45-K), DeMarco Murray ($22)
WR: Brandin Cooks ($33), Randall Cobb ($16), DeVante Parker ($5), Donte Moncrief ($3), John Brown ($4), Sterling Shepard ($3)
TE: Coby Fleener ($5), Jimmy Graham ($5)
Spent: $219 of $250 budget

Team 2:
QB: Derek Carr ($4), Kirk Cousins ($3)
RB: David Johnson ($20-K), Todd Gurley ($20-K), Le'Veon Bell ($40), Ezekiel Elliott ($50)
WR: Brandin Cooks ($33), Randall Cobb ($16), DeVante Parker ($5), Donte Moncrief ($3), John Brown ($4), Sterling Shepard ($2)
TE: Coby Fleener ($3), Jimmy Graham ($3)
Spent: $212 of $220 budget

Scenario 1 has me trading Gurley to gain $30 in cap space before the draft. Also gives me a LOT of wiggle room to go higher on players. Team 2 is absolutely unconsciously loaded, but I run the risk of not getting it if I have to overpay for a couple guys. That being said, I would be willing to sacrifice Brandin Cooks ($33) and replace him with, say, Sammy Watkins ($18), Doug Baldwin ($16) or even Desean Jackson ($4) to make room for those RBs. Team 2 is also based on Le'Veon Bell going for a discounted rate due to his suspension. I've seen places put his value around $35-40 now ... but I wouldn't be shocked if he still went in the $50 range.

 

 

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bobandweave

bobandweave

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On 7/27/2016 at 7:50 AM, S.T.real,lights,out said:

Im staying away from Bell as much as possible this year. I had that same mentality as JMS last year. Waited the 4 games and only got 6 games out of him before he got hurt. No doubt hes a monster on the field but for that price im targeting someone else this season.

 

Curious do you feel the same about Josh Gordon and Tom Brady? I actually agree with you, his current ADP in 12 team is the top of the 2nd round. The key to the top of your draft is how well you can limit risk and guarantee yourself top 10 production in points. Bell is one suspension away from pulling a Martavius Bryant and missing the whole season. I won't draft him or Deangelo Williams who's going too high now as well. I also wouldn't draft Gordon but I would pair Brady with Cousins. They have a hell of a great combined schedule

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bobandweave

bobandweave

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5 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Trying to get the ball rolling a bit on hypotheticals and general discussion ...

Anyway, been reading a couple pieces on Gurley being overdrafted. In a terrible offense, he is an outlier, but historically, he's just unlikely to be a Top 5 RB this year. Okay, that's fine. I'm only spending $20 to keep him ... he's going for $60+ in drafts. If he's a 12-15 RB that's fine at that price.

 

 

Where are you seeing that? Fantasy Pros shows that from all of the sources they pull from (Rotoviz, Espn, CBS, PFF, etc) that the lowest rank he's getting from anyone now is 12th overall and that's only by two writers everyone else has him ranked higher then 12th

https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/players/todd-gurley.php?type=overall&week=draft

Personally I think he's a sure bet to be a top 5 RB this season. Why?

1) The Rams have no one on offense to take him out of the 20-25 carries per game touches role. The best offensive weapon on the Rams besides Gurley is Tavon Austin who sucks. The Rams offense has not changed much at all and he still had 229 rushing attempts for 1106 rushing yards last year. Why would they not give him the ball over and over again like they did last season?

2) The biggest worry that I can come up with for the Rams not leaning on Gurley this year as much as last season is game flow. Only if the game flow does not allow them to run the ball as much as they want to will his carries be capped. They only lost two defensive players to FA who weren't that good anyway so I still think this is still an 8-8, .500 ball club who's going to lean completely on the RB for offense. The Rams do have the hardest schedule in all of the league and it's important to know that last year in the three games the Rams were blown out in that TG only had one single carry in the 4th quarter of those games. Game flow is a concern

I happily drafted him and will again if I can and think you should hold him as well

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bobandweave

bobandweave

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4 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Built two teams off the above principal using current Yahoo auction rates.
Team 1:
RB: David Johnson

 

David Johnson scares me this year and I will not be drafting him at all. I see him as an easy target to bust this year. Why?

1. Unlike Todd Gurley who has no one to take carries from him, DJ has Chris Johnson and Andre Ellington who the coach has said will get carries this year. So he's in a committee

2. The head coach has said he will go with the hot hand at the RB position, so he's in a committee

3. The last 4 games he played the numbers scare me off him.

12/27 - (W 38-8) - 9 carries for 39 rushing yards
1/3 - (L 6-36) - 11 carries for 25 rushing yards
1/16 - (W 26-20) - 15 carries for 35 rushing yards
1/24 - (L 15-49) - 15 carries for 60 rushing yards

Not to mention his lack of rushing attempts. To me his rushing per games last year make him impossible to draft as my teams RB1 and also makes me wonder how he can be the consensus #2 RB this year.

RBs need opportunities to produce points and I'd rather not have him with those question marks about how many carries he will get and how will those two other RBs play into this season then to hope that these are unfounded worries. I'm staying away and waiting to see how it goes, he's was too risky to me

 

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