darrelgreenie Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 2.6 seconds or more: % of throws over 2.6/Attempts Comp% Sacks QB rating Rob........................51%/92 atts............................53......................26.............................66 Colt........................49%/54 atts............................67......................15...........................106 Kirk.........................40%/78 atts...........................49........................6..............................62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskins55 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I figured I'd go back and watch these again after a few months and the same thing pops out in my head. From purely a football player stand point. You can tell that Griffin did not trust the offense and Kirk could not trust the offense. From what i saw both times is Griffin and Kirk were pressured most of the time. When they wern't pressured, the receivers wern't open due to the poor design of the plays; And when the receivers finally got open and there was no pressure, this is where both QBs messed up individually... RG- Just held onto the ball and either took a sack or took off running. Sometimes he gained positive yards but more times than not he was not able to get away. KC- Just threw it to another receiver that wasn't the open guy. Sometimes he connected but more times than not he threw an interception. From a football player's makeup this tells alot about both QBs and their mentality. Both QBs have been taught to make plays when there seemingly is no play to be made. But Griffin has the physical ability to use his legs and arm to keep plays alive, while Cousins doesn't have that, which is why you've seen him throw so many interceptions the last three years. He forces the ball hoping the receiver will make a play. I know there is a popular debate about Griffin and Cousins being starters, but I have to say that from what I've seen Cousins will never be able to trust an offense because his skill set is limited. Whereas Griffin simply has to learn to trust the offense and his skill set will take care of the rest. Both positions are not ideal to be in, but one seems easier to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 2.6 seconds or more: % of throws over 2.6/Attempts Comp% Sacks QB rating Rob........................51%/92 atts............................53......................26.............................66 Colt........................49%/54 atts............................67......................15...........................106 Kirk.........................40%/78 atts...........................49........................6..............................62 Interesting that Colt rates much higher in this break down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexa Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Matt Cavanaugh hasn't helped Jay Cutler? I believe Cutler had more turnovers than any other QB last year. He was so bad that he was benched for Jimmy Clausen. All this w/ Matt Cavanaugh as his QB coach. Cutler has big boy talent, he's as talented as anyone in the NFL and got benched for a no name. So my point being is that it's not automatic that he gets anything out of Griffin ( or Kirk) since he has such a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
War Paint Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Rodgers was going to be a great QB, regardless of whether he sat behind Farve, or had to play right away. It wouldn't have mattered one way or the other. That wasn't the consensus at the draft. He was a Tedford QB. At that time, Tedford QBs never really panned out in the NFL. The Tedford QB with the most success at the time was Trent Dilfer. The reason why Rodgers fell so far in the draft was because of Tedford. Here's the list of Tedford QBs up until Aaron Rodgers: Trent Dilfer Akili Smith David Carr Joey Harrington Kyle Boller Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taylor703 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I believe Cutler had more turnovers than any other QB last year. He was so bad that he was benched for Jimmy Clausen. All this w/ Matt Cavanaugh as his QB coach. Cutler has big boy talent, he's as talented as anyone in the NFL and got benched for a no name. So my point being is that it's not automatic that he gets anything out of Griffin ( or Kirk) since he has such a long way to go. This I can agree with. There's no guarantee that RGIII or Kirk can turn it around. Hopefully Cavanaugh helps but I sort of expect the majority of this staff to be gone if next season is a failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexa Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 That wasn't the consensus at the draft. He was a Tedford QB. At that time, Tedford QBs never really panned out in the NFL. The Tedford QB with the most success at the time was Trent Dilfer. The reason why Rodgers fell so far in the draft was because of Tedford. Here's the list of Tedford QBs up until Aaron Rodgers: Trent Dilfer Akili Smith David Carr Joey Harrington Kyle Boller I agree, when he was in the draft. What I'm saying is if he had to play right away, like Luck, Griffin and Wilson did, he would have eventually become a great QB. Not right away, but in time he would be what he is today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I think that as opposed to solid unbiased, critical, and informed analysis, there's been way more back-and-forth that's emotionally and ego driven scapegoating and excuse-making (in many competing views) spread among players, coaching, and the FO. Hardly all that unusual on ES over its history (logically enough, given the venue and the population). Much of this the last three years is mainly attributable to folks' RG3 positions/views and the related effects (denials aside) of those feelings/thoughts. It really continues to be Jason Campbell II (or worse) in so many ways, to this point. Unlike many, I didn't have that much trouble with understanding jay's conundrum with the 3 QBs. Griffin gets re-reinjured and also still had his existing mechanical and mental drawbacks, Colt was Colt, and KC was still more raw in game experience than either bob or colt. Though I didn't expect KC would seemingly have such serious and repeated meltdowns in concentration. I still figured him for likely to have real struggles without it meaning he's already a wash out as a starting QB in the league. And as I posted on at length in the past, I don't buy the "all three guys deteriorated under jay" mantra as though it was all or mostly "jay's fault." They were each carrying serious limitations already that was part of a much bigger mess. Though not having a QB coach last year was a big gaffe no matter how that was decided or who all was influential in making that decision. I think it's quite likely we don't have a true franchise QB on the roster now, but would think of the three, RG3 still has the best shot with KC next (I still hope). I'm just an average mb poster, but if I were HC or a GM here, I wouldn't be very comfortable with a plan to seriously alter my schemes or build my roster around any of these guys at this point. To me, an issue would be why spend the time and resources to sculpt a new system and a desperately needed rebuilding around any guy that gives you serious trepidation at the vital QB spot if the decision-maker(s) can find an option that they agree holds more promise? If that happens, I hope they just write off the draft picks for the RG3 trade and make their move. It certainly would not surprise me (and sure wouldn't upset me) to see the team (yes, Scot, and "even Dan", too) go another direction, as I also said in the past. I stick by my way earlier comments that most words that come from the FO about such things should be regarded as "strategic" IME more than literally true. And it's rarely useful fodder for accurate extrapolation or reading more into what was said---especially if you (universal "you") note you're reading into it what suits your existing positions. I don't think I'm either cynical or overstating the matter to think that way about most such pressers. I think it's the smart way to go if you've paid attention to what's been said and then restated differently (often significantly so) later, let alone than what's actually ended up happening in many matters over the years, in the league and with this particular team. It should be part of knowing the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taylor703 Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 My feelings are that I want Gruden to get the guy he wants to work with if we're capable of doing so. If Gruden doesn't feel like he can win with any of the current guys than we should try something else. Yes I'm a Griffin fan and I'd love for him to succeed but something has to give if we want to be a respected and well run organization. Do what's best for the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrelgreenie Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 ...But to argue the other side, it hasn't helped Jay Cutler. A QB coach can only do so much.Matt Cavanaugh hasn't helped Jay Cutler? I believe Cutler had more turnovers than any other QB last year... Cavanaugh got there in 2013 that year.... Jay's comp% went up YPA went up TD % went up Posted his highest passer rating of his career. 2014 Highest comp% of career Most TDs of career 2nd highest passer rating of career Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrelgreenie Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Interesting that Colt rates much higher in this break down.For me the passes that take 2.6s or more are representative off coming off the 1st maybe even 2nd read. So I wasn't surprised by that. I said before and still believe that in a "true" QB competition between the 3 Colt would win simply because he's has the most experience in a rhythm timing offense and specifically in a WCO system. It's probably why Jay seemed to like him. I want to get into the 'time in the pocket' numbers more but gotta run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooper Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 Some interesting stuff in this long article about "failed" completions. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/failed-completions-2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrelgreenie Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Some interesting stuff in this long article about "failed" completions. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2015/failed-completions-2014 Great article. I have my issues with how they quantify 'failed' completions on 1st and 2nd downs; which the author actually addressed: Some might argue with the idea of a 4-yard completion on first-and-10 being an unsuccessful play, but there is no debating the importance of getting every necessary yard on third and fourth down. The following table lists each quarterback's total failed completions, his completions and failed completions on third/fourth down, and then the table is sorted by failure rate on third-/fourth-down completions, from lowest (Rodgers, again) to highest (Mettenberger). Also included is the share of each quarterback's failed completions that came on third or fourth down, from lowest (Drew Stanton) to highest (Charlie Whitehurst). I included this on accident last year, so I'm listing it again for comparison's sake. Kirk--- 33.3% failure rate on 3rd/4th down which accounted for 41.7% of his failures Rob---45.5% failure rate on 3rd/4th down which accounted for 30.6% of his failures Colt wasn't listed but his overall failure rate was about the same as Rob: Griffin had 12 failed completions in that Week 1 [24% of his failures in that 1 game] loss to Houston. Was Jay Gruden's offense the problem? Colt McCoy only had 91 completions, but his failed rate was 33.0 [vs 33.3 for Griff] percent. However, we shouldn't just blame the offensive design. Kirk Cousins had the fourth-lowest rate last year, but lost his job after suffering too many turnovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskins55 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 My feelings are that I want Gruden to get the guy he wants to work with if we're capable of doing so. If Gruden doesn't feel like he can win with any of the current guys than we should try something else. Yes I'm a Griffin fan and I'd love for him to succeed but something has to give if we want to be a respected and well run organization. Do what's best for the team. Trusting Jay Gruden blindly is a big mistake in my opinion. We've learned from the past that NFL coaches don't know talent. NFL Coaches know comfort.. And being comfortable with a guy wont make him successful. Shanahan- Beck, Grossman Al Saunders- Todd Collins Joe Gibbs- Mark Brunell & Jason Campbell Steve Spurrier- Danny Wuerffel , Shane Mathews, Patrick Ramsey.. . A good coach should take the approach of finding the best plays and approach to motivate the type of players on the team, and coaching whomever is on the roster. It's the way Gibbs 1.0 won and its the way Bruce Arians has won the last three seasons. A good coach can win with Andrew Luck, Carson Palmer, or Drew Stanton.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexa Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Cavanaugh got there in 2013 that year.... Jay's comp% went up YPA went up TD % went up Posted his highest passer rating of his career. 2014 Highest comp% of career Most TDs of career 2nd highest passer rating of career And all those stats you post really mean very little in the overall picture. Cutler is the kind of guy that will probably always put up solid numbers simply because of his talent level. But again, if he was playing so well then why was he benched for Jimmy Clausen of all people? Can you answer that w/out posting stats? It's because he never takes care of the ball. He makes stupid rookie mistakes and that's been the knock on him. Obviously the QB coach could not stop him leading the league in turnovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrelgreenie Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Go ahead and completely move the goal posts. Cutler improved under Cavanaugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrelgreenie Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Interesting that Colt rates much higher in this break down. Funny the timing on this conversation with Colt re-signing.... But back to the numbers... First in a probably futile attempt to ward of passers...this discussion doesn't represent any type of grand statement on the QBs from my end but rather a discussion/interpretation of the numbers. Kirk gets rid of the ball the fastest, takes fewer sacks but gets sacked the quickest. Griff holds the ball the longest and waits the longest before scrambling and gets sack later then Kirk but sooner then Colt. Colt is in the middle when it comes to getting rid of the ball but takes the longest to get sacked and he's the quickest to scramble. 2.5 seconds or less: % of throws under 2.5 seconds/Attempts Comp% Sacks QB rating Rob.........................................49%/122 atts.................80......................7.........................100 Colt.........................................51%/74 atts...................74......................2...........................89 Kirk.........................................60%/126 atts.................70......................2..........................102 Kirk threw more then half his passes in 2.5 or less had the lowest comp% and just edges out Griff in QB rating. Griff threw about half his passes in less then 2.5 and had the highest comp% second highest rating but took the most sacks. Colt again threw about half his passes in less then 2.5 had the middle comp% but lowest QB rating. 2.6 seconds or more: % of throws over 2.6/Attempts Comp% Sacks QB rating Rob........................51%/92 atts............................53......................26.............................66 Colt........................49%/54 atts............................67......................15...........................106 Kirk.........................40%/78 atts...........................49........................6..............................62 Colt separates himself highest QB rating and highest comp % but took sacks about the same rate as Griff ~3.5 snaps/sacks. Kirk lowest comp% lowest QB rating but also the lowest sack ratio. Griff was in the middle in terms of comp% and QB rating but like Colt took sacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexa Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Bottom line....Kirk makes big plays, throws the ball downfield, throws in tight windows and can put points on the board. To me, he's more competent than the other two, even with the turnovers. Glad Colt is resigned as he can hold the fort down in a short term basis. Hope Griffin can get better with the new QB coach. He was so bad last year that he really has no where to go but up. To me he's the worst out the three and the potential talk is out the window. It's now or never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Comment on these stats. First disclosure I'm not a big stats guy. Then I would say that the stats that really interest me are not overall stats but situational stats - and key situational stats at that. 3rd down and 4 plus, 3rd down and 9 plus, stats when behind, second half versus first half when ahead and behind, stats when by number of pass rushers, red zone stats etc etc. the key situations which make a big difference to winning and losing games. We fans don't really have access to all of these - at least not easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrelgreenie Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Comment on these stats. First disclosure I'm not a big stats guy. Then I would say that the stats that really interest me are not overall stats but situational stats - and key situational stats at that. 3rd down and 4 plus, 3rd down and 9 plus, stats when behind, second half versus first half when ahead and behind, stats when by number of pass rushers, red zone stats etc etc. the key situations which make a big difference to winning and losing games. We fans don't really have access to all of these - at least not easily. Same when it comes to stats. I like to observe and sometimes chart but cross checking situational stats from sites like PFF can provide some interesting observations some relevant and insightful others just *meh*. But many of PFF stats help paint a picture that often for me; matches up to what I see. Also, I think yahoo has those situational stats you were talking about: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/25712/situational/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomwvr Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Hopefully Colt is cut before the season - he is not good and no other team in the league even talked to him let alone offered him a contract. I think this season it will be between Cousins and Griffin, any other move would be nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califan007 The Constipated Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Great article. I have my issues with how they quantify 'failed' completions on 1st and 2nd downs; which the author actually addressed: Some might argue with the idea of a 4-yard completion on first-and-10 being an unsuccessful play, but there is no debating the importance of getting every necessary yard on third and fourth down. The following table lists each quarterback's total failed completions, his completions and failed completions on third/fourth down, and then the table is sorted by failure rate on third-/fourth-down completions, from lowest (Rodgers, again) to highest (Mettenberger). Also included is the share of each quarterback's failed completions that came on third or fourth down, from lowest (Drew Stanton) to highest (Charlie Whitehurst). I included this on accident last year, so I'm listing it again for comparison's sake. Kirk--- 33.3% failure rate on 3rd/4th down which accounted for 41.7% of his failures Rob---45.5% failure rate on 3rd/4th down which accounted for 30.6% of his failures Colt wasn't listed but his overall failure rate was about the same as Rob: Griffin had 12 failed completions in that Week 1 [24% of his failures in that 1 game] loss to Houston. Was Jay Gruden's offense the problem? Colt McCoy only had 91 completions, but his failed rate was 33.0 [vs 33.3 for Griff] percent. However, we shouldn't just blame the offensive design. Kirk Cousins had the fourth-lowest rate last year, but lost his job after suffering too many turnovers. So what does it mean when Kirk ranks 4th best in failed completion rate but 4th worst in DVOA on those failed completions?...Or did I read the table wrong? lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrelgreenie Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 So what does it mean when Kirk ranks 4th best in failed completion rate but 4th worst in DVOA on those failed completions?...Or did I read the table wrong? lol..Not sure if serious, but i'll bite. My guess looking at their data and piecing it together against what I know/saw? When Kirk failed he failed all the way with interceptions which bring his DVOA down as opposed to failing via a checkdown or incompletion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califan007 The Constipated Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Not sure if serious, but i'll bite. My guess looking at their data and piecing it together against what I know/saw? When Kirk failed he failed all the way with interceptions which bring his DVOA down as opposed to failing via a checkdown or incompletion. Very serious, nothing to bite lol...I never got the DVOA/DIVA/DEVO/Whatever thingamajig or its importannce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skins island connection Posted March 18, 2015 Share Posted March 18, 2015 Very serious, nothing to bite lol...I never got the DVOA/DIVA/DEVO/Whatever thingamajig or its importannce. There are so many different stats and the possibilities to them being mis-leading or mis-interpreted are endless. The difference in a stat being against a 3rd & 4 vs a 3rd & 5 can be 2 totally different outcomes, depending whether its against a 10th ranked or worse defense, in the 4th qtr, on the road while being down by 11 or more points with weather conditions weighed in both outcomes. WTH? But if you need a stat, greenie has them down tight; I wouldn't attempt trying to understand half the stats he can read and evaluate. To me, it can be much ado about nothing, and some like em, some don't. A stat, to me, is nothing more than an average or a tendency waiting to rise or fall upon the next pass thrown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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