2015 MLB Thread - Hot Stove Edition

[PeterMP]

Starting pitchers get plenty of rest, but they don't build up their arms by throwing more pitches per outing.

 

 

See my post above.  Innings thrown by a starter are down less than an inning as compared by the MAX number of average innings by a started in the expansion era.

 

But the number of pitches are up per a game (expectedly as there been an increase emphasis on OBP).

 

Given that combination of things, is there any reason to believe that starters aren't throwing as many pitches?

[codeorama]

Peter, good post, hitting and steroids have caused more pitches, but again, more pitchers throw per game.  The pitches are spread out, the starting pitcher isn't throwing all those pitches.

 

BTW, you are dead on with the part about kids playing in multiple leagues/teams and throwing too much.  That's my point as well.  They throw too much too often.  On our HS team, we do not allow them to pitch AT ALL except for us.  We have them on a strict routine and if we find out they are pitching somewhere else, they are done.  But, I know for a fact that other HS players do this. Its sad.

 

My son is 8, he plays little league machine pitch and we have an 8u travel team (ranked #1 in Va at this moment... ) and we will have to transition to player pitch this summer because they start 9U in the fall.  One thing that we will do is train all 11 players to pitch and we will use all 11 to pitch.  We will not rely on just a few.  In Little League, they wanted my son and 8 year old nephew to go up to "B" league where it is player pitch but we wouldn't allow them to because we knew they would be expected to pitch all the time.  Not going to happen.  

I have a 15 year old nephew that is in the 9th grade. He's a stud.  He throws about 81 - 84.  Throws a natural "heavy" ball.  Has gone this whole HS season without giving up an earned run as a freshman.  However, he's only started 1 game and has only pitched more than 2 innings twice.  We are gradually moving him to pitching more, geared towards his jr and sr years.  He's been on the Tom House "Velocity" program this past year and he jumped from 77 to 84 just in the off season.  All this pitching stuff hits close to home for us because he will have a shot at getting drafted or D1 school.  He's a big kid, hits with power etc...  

[Slateman]

You missed his point. Pitchers are throwing the same, if not more, number of pitches, but not going as deep in to games. Hitting improved and more emphasis has been placed on the strikeout.

 

I think it's naive and misguided to believe that pitchers need to throw more. Dice-K was throwing tons and ended up needing TJS amongst a host of other injuries. Matt Harrison just got put on the DL for the rest of the season and he throws a ton. Wainright has similar number of pitches to Ryan, but pitched 70 fewer innings in a season. Cliff Lee, Verlander, and Shields are all guys who have gone a few years without injury and haven't  had to throw 300+ innings. Their pitch counts aren't absurdly high either.

 

Guys are simply throwing harder now. Nolan Ryan was throwing mid 90s and it was unusual in the 70s and 80s. Now, it's common place. Breaking stuff is being thrown harder. Change ups are being used far more frequently and require more effort. Curveballs are coming in at the low to mid 80s. I think this is primarily a result of hitting getting much better and pitching trying to catch up.

[Thekyle1591]

Slateman, it's amazing to see you believing you know more than a Nationals scout/high school coach.

[Slateman]

Slateman, it's amazing to see you believing you know more than a Nationals scout/high school coach.

Blah blah blah. If the only thing you can do is hide behind a job title, I don't care what you have to say. It's pretty obvious that this is a far more complicated issue than "pitchers need to throw more."

[Thekyle1591]

Blah blah blah. If the only thing you can do is hide behind a job title, I don't care what you have to say. It's pretty obvious that this is a far more complicated issue than "pitchers need to throw more."

Pretty sure he gave you a very detailed explanation of why pitchers should throw more. But no, you, someone who has obviously never played baseball, knows more.

[Slateman]

Pretty sure he gave you a very detailed explanation of why pitchers should throw more. But no, you, someone who has obviously never played baseball, knows more.

Strike Two. Played in HS and college. Was a pitcher, in fact. This very issue is the reason I ended up quitting my Junior year. And I've already explained how I was homeschooled and played on like three different travel teams so I definitely understand the whole pitching for three different teams and not getting any rest.

 

Pitchers aren't throwing fewer pitches. They're simply not going as deep in to games. Largely due to the improvements in hitting and the emphasis on the strikeout. Guys like Blyleven, Tudor, Mike Norris, Ray Langford, Phil Niekro . . . they didn't strike guys out that often. They simply got ground balls and fly outs in parks that were bigger than today. Even in the late 80s and early 90s, guys who were up in innings (Greg Maddux, Saberhagen, etc) were guys who were still sitting around 100-110 pitches a game.

 

Throwing more is not the simplified answer. It's poor conditioning programs in the offseason. It's cutting down on the pitching before they get drafted. It's putting real time and effort in to researching mechanics and making the proper changes. It's understanding that pitchers are putting far more anaerobic strain on their bodies than ever before. It's understanding that building up arm strength takes time and when you draft that young 19 year old pheonom, you need to be prepared to not see him at the majors until he's 23 or 24. And some of it is, IMO, that amongst the young pitchers (Harvey, Fernandez, Medlen, Beachy, Strasburg), being called up too soon and being asked to pitch too much, too soon is having consequences. It's a lot to ask a guy to go from cruising at 70% effort level in Double A to having to go max effort/concentration for every pitch in the majors.

[Thekyle1591]

Ah, so you have played. Would've never known from the posts in the Nats thread. Don't wanna pick a fight or anything, but don't just discard something from someone who obviously knows what they are talking about.

Have a nice day.

[codeorama]

I honestly don't think the answer is as simple as "pitchers need to throw more". It is more complicated than that.

Again, I believe its two fold:

 

Young pitchers pitch too much in a short period of time (fri-sun) because of travel ball.  They don't get rest in between pitching, their arms never recover. Again, like lifting weights, if you benchpress three days in a row, without recovery time, you will get hurt eventually.  Its common sense.

 

Second part is that professional pitchers are conditioned to pitch to low pitch counts, which never builds enough arm strength.  Those are Nolan Ryan's words.  Google search him, he gives way more detail specifying how pitching used to be compared to today.  I agree with him. Doesn't mean its the only reason.

 

IN addition, pitchers are said to throw harder, but, please understand this: Radar guns are different.  IN the past there were 2 types of guns, Ray and Juggs.  Ray guns were typically 5mph slower than Juggs.  Some teams used one, others used the other. TV always used Juggs because it showed as a higher number.  I know this for a fact... In my city, there is a college summer team (Coastal plains league) that has a ball park radar system and it is 5-7 mph faster than a juggs gun.  For real... Kids think they are throwing harder, fans think they are throwing harder. The stadium calibrates it that way on purpose.  Fans like the big numbers.  

 

I have a sneaking suspicion that this same thing happens a lot of the time on TV.  Yes, in general, pitchers are throwing a little harder than in the past because of better mechanics (in some cases) and better training and yes, steroids.  But, I know the radar gun is overblown.

I sat behind home plate at a Nats game with Stras on the mound. Stadium gun showed 97, mine showed 94.

[PeterMP]

 

Peter, good post, hitting and steroids have caused more pitches, but again, more pitchers throw per game.  The pitches are spread out, the starting pitcher isn't throwing all those pitches.

 

BTW, you are dead on with the part about kids playing in multiple leagues/teams and throwing too much.  That's my point as well.  They throw too much too often.  On our HS team, we do not allow them to pitch AT ALL except for us.  We have them on a strict routine and if we find out they are pitching somewhere else, they are done.  But, I know for a fact that other HS players do this. Its sad..  

 

No, but some of them are, and the difference between average innings today and the average max inning from starters post-expansion era is less than one inning.

 

Given from the MAX year, starting pitchers are throwing LESS than one inning more a game, but there are more pitches in a game, how many fewer pitches do you really think a starting pitcher is throwing?

 

From the link I provided before:

 

"In 2009, starting pitchers averaged 95 pitchers per game. In 1988, it was 96 per game."

 

Do you really think on average 1 pitch a game matters?

 

The other thing is that as long as I can remember pitchers have always thrown on the side on off days.

 

Here's Tommy John saying in 1975, he threw 6 days a week.

 

And I'll bet that was in a 4 man rotation.

 

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/madden-nolan-ryan-tommy-john-babying-pitchers-doesn-work-article-1.1730546

 

"Starting in 1975 with the White Sox, when Johnny Sain was my pitching coach, I would throw six days a week out of seven and it was the best my arm ever felt. For the next 13 years, I never missed a start, except once when I had the flu."

 

(Though, he also then blames pitch counts and the like, but doesn't actually provide any information that there were more pitches being thrown.)

[codeorama]

Tommy may be referring to just throwing, not throwing bullpens.  Some teams do not allow pitchers to throw a ball on certain days, which I think is crazy, others throw every day, with a bullpen from the mound on day 3 after a start, others throw flatground bullpens in between starts, which do not tear down the arm.  

 

I think there are a lot of different approaches and eventually, the teams that do it right, the stats will support it.

To add, most old school guys hate the pitch counts in the pros because each pitcher is different. WHat works for one may not work for another.  Each pitcher should be treated differently

And to your quote, Pitchers now throw more pitches and  more breaking stuff that takes more of a toll on their arm. 
I'd bet that in the 80's, pitchers threw more fastballs and went longer into games. Today, they throw more pitches per batter, thus less innings per 100 pitches.  Steroids, better hitters, etc...

[PeterMP]

Tommy may be referring to just throwing, not throwing bullpens.  Some teams do not allow pitchers to throw a ball on certain days, which I think is crazy, others throw every day, with a bullpen from the mound on day 3 after a start, others throw flatground bullpens in between starts, which do not tear down the arm.  

 

I think there are a lot of different approaches and eventually, the teams that do it right, the stats will support it.

To add, most old school guys hate the pitch counts in the pros because each pitcher is different. WHat works for one may not work for another.  Each pitcher should be treated differently

 

"John said he would routinely throw 40-50 pitches off the mound on days between starts."

 

And again, in 1975, I'll be that was with a 4 man rotation.

 

That sounds like a pretty intense bull pen session to me.

 

I don't think anybody doubts that all pitchers are different.  But figuring out what makes pitchers different isn't trivial, and MLB teams are worried about the average player/pitcher as a result.

 

How do you figure it out if you have a guy that can go 120+ pitches on a regular basis or not?  

 

And what happens if he's a guy that can't do it in the process of you figuring it out?

[codeorama]

You're right, that is very intense, but, you know, I can see how it could be beneficial.  If I'm lifting weights, I have to push myself.  You have to know your body and its limits. KIDS do not know this. Adults should.

 

How we manage our HS pitchers is easy.  We know what their mechanics are, we know when they change. Pitchers change when they get tired.  Each one for us is different.  For as long as I've coached, played and scouted, every pitcher is pretty obvious when they are "done".  So far, even though my brother played professionally and I didn't, I've had a better sense about when to change pitchers.  We had a game yesterday and I told him to make the change but he talked me out of it and the next batter hit a double, then a walk, then we had to make the change.  Usually, pitchers arm slots change, the start throwing more breaking pitches as well.

But its a sight/recognition thing. You have to know your pitchers.

I just realized that one of my "gifts" that my brother has acknowledged is my observation of body language.  I notice a lot of things regarding how players move and when it changes.  

[Slateman]

When I say pitchers are throwing harder, I'm not just talking about fastball velocity. Even the 94 you had is still impressive. In the 70s and 80s, that was, maybe, 5-10 pitchers in all of baseball that could do that as a starter. Now, it's pretty common place. But it's not just the velocity of the fastball, it's the breaking stuff, particularly sliders and curveballs. They've got more velocity to them and with that velocity requires more torque and effort to get the pitch to break like the pitcher wants. This requires more effort and strain, particularly on the parts of the arm controlling torque and arm slot.

 

Pitch counts have remained the same/similar. But the quality and effort of pitches has increased.

 

The idea of the pitch count was good, but it was poorly executed. It was supposed to be used as a way of measuring how each pitcher was performing and using it as a determination of when that pitcher was no longer effective. But it just became a blanket measurement. Oh he's at 100 pitches, we should pull him. Depends on who it is. One guy might suck after 75 but a guy like Verlander can throw 125 in a game and be fine.

 

I think Nolan Ryan is wrong. I think Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, and Martin Perez are showing that. By the time a guy gets to the majors, it may be too late to build arm strength if they're already damaged. I also wonder how many guys in the 70s and 80s were injured, but simply pitched through it or were put on the DL for "arm soreness" with no real diagnosis. They then adapted to that injury and altered their pitching style.

[codeorama]

Lots of truth there, good post.

It starts young.

[Slateman]

I think that scouting is going to have to delve deep in to HS pitchers' histories, especially those players that will be drafted in the first round and be due money and a 40 man roster spot. How many teams did you play for? How much did you pitch? I could even see guys getting MRIs right after they're drafted and spending the first year only doing strengthening/rehab type exercises and throwing from flat ground. Maybe getting to pitch at the end of the season and in the AFL.

 

This is why when Nats fans are clamoring for Lucas Giolito to make a September call up next season and be in the rotation come 2016, I'm much more cautious.

[Warhead36]

Orel Herscheiser said that 100 pitches now is equivalent to 140+ in the 80s. Guys are just throwing with a lot more stress nowadays.

 

This is why I like accumulating as many arms as possible. The more bullets in your chamber, the longer you stay in the fight.

[codeorama]

Cleveland called up former UVA pitcher Kyle Crockett. I grew up with his uncle and know his grandparents well. My HS team scrimmaged his HS team his jr and Sr year. Hope he has lots of success!

[Slateman]

Cashner to the DL with elbow soreness

[ixcuincle]

 

"They start young these days" 

 

Go after that son

[Bubble Screen]

Pitchers aren't throwing fewer pitches. They're simply not going as deep in to games. Largely due to the improvements in hitting and the emphasis on the strikeout. Guys like Blyleven, Tudor, Mike Norris, Ray Langford, Phil Niekro . . . they didn't strike guys out that often. .

Blyleven is 5th all time in strikeouts.

[abdcskins]

Here's a daring prediction - the Kansas City Royals will win the AL Central.  Kind of a faux pas statement with the Tigers in there, but I just really like the Royals lineup for some reason and their pitching staff is underrated.  

[Slateman]

Here's a daring prediction - the Kansas City Royals will win the AL Central.  Kind of a faux pas statement with the Tigers in there, but I just really like the Royals lineup for some reason and their pitching staff is underrated.  

Daring indeed. The  Tigers stay healthy, it would take a hell of a run by the Royals.

[Bubble Screen]

Here's a daring prediction - the Kansas City Royals will win the AL Central.

Yeah, that's not happening.

[skinfan2k]

Here's a daring prediction - the Kansas City Royals will win the AL Central.  Kind of a faux pas statement with the Tigers in there, but I just really like the Royals lineup for some reason and their pitching staff is underrated.  

 

Two words.  Miguel Cabrera.  He is just now getting on fire and they are already 14 games above .500