2014 Comprehensive Nfl Draft Database

[skinny21]

Why cut them when it would do more harm then good.

Could you elaborate pls?

[Thekyle1591]

Could you elaborate pls?

It would cost almost as much as it would save and we would be getting rid of the only 2 players who have had any sort of impact with extended playing time. 

[darrelgreenie]

Good rant Monk.

 

I haven't watched enough of these guys to say how that play against blockers, so can't add to that discussion.

 

But I do believe that scheme wise you can play to a players strenght. I think a Frazier can be highly effective if you have your dline + OLB block the o-line. He needs to have free running lanes. Basically what you want is to create running lanes for him...just like the o-line does for the RB. That's a way to use a LB who is pretty bad at shedding blockers. 

 

About the FB in the hole, how many teams still a FB? Is that a real probleme, or do the most teams rather place a 3th WR on the field? 'The spread'. In that case you rather want a coverage LB with speed. 

 

In a perfect world you have a LB who does it all, but I'm thinking in matchups. If most of the league spread you out, then you better have a ILB who can cover and stuff. In that case blockshedding becomes less important. 

 

I don't know if that is a fact, the spreading people out/no fb, but we might need to look a little different to the skillset of a LB then we are used to. 

Yup. It depends on the type of team/style of defense. In a 2-gap 34 where the DL keeps him clean and plays beside a hammer? Think Lawrence Timmons or Daryl Washington.

[Thekyle1591]

Yup. It depends on the type of team/style of defense. In a 2-gap 34 where the DL keeps him clean and plays beside a hammer? Think Lawrence Timmons or Daryl Washington.

If he gets stronger he can be a hell of a player. Big if though. 

[SJValleySkinz]

I think I remember reading somewhere that the rounds where you have an above average success rate for landing a good WR are the 1st, 2nd, and 7th rounds.  Now this is all proportional, so a small % of successes in the 7th round at WR could still be above average, simply due to how few players drafted in the 7th actually pan out.

 

Ah, found it.

 

http://eaglesrewind.com/2013/01/30/hacking-the-draft-default-positional-targets-by-round/

 

Chart with the below average rounds left blank.

 

 

 

The full chart.

 

 

 

So going from this, we can see that the chances we get a good WR drop way down once we hit the 3rd round.  Now since this draft class is considered a bit deeper for WR, these numbers could change some, but I feel like with the #34 pick, we could find ourselves picking up a WR that's legitimately a 1st round talent in most other drafts.  And that increases our odds of getting a successful WR.

 

Fun fact for Redskins fans.  This data ends in 2011, Alfred Morris defies that 0% in the 6th round for RB's!

 

Not sure about the chart but WR might be the position with the best odds of finding a late round/UDFA starter.

[turlockskinsfan]

Does anyone think we will draft another running back? I know we have Alfred, but in today's NFL you need more than one back. Also, I feel that we need as much depth as we can at every position and cannot afford to overlook anyone just because we have a starter. If you look at all the successful teams one underlying connection between them is depth. I am particularly interested in Jeremy Hill and the guy from Townson. Any scouting reports would be much appreciated.

[darrelgreenie]

Not sure if Christian Kirksey has been mentioned yet?

 

He's one of the players I was intrigued by at the Senior Bowl.

In the midst of the ILB talk I figured I'd throw his name out there.

I'm watching his lone game from draftcountdown now, he's thus far spent all game covering the slot and rushing from the edge.

[Thekyle1591]

Does anyone think we will draft another running back? I know we have Alfred, but in today's NFL you need more than one back. Also, I feel that we need as much depth as we can at every position and cannot afford to overlook anyone just because we have a starter. If you look at all the successful teams one underlying connection between them is depth. I am particularly interested in Jeremy Hill and the guy from Townson. Any scouting reports would be much appreciated.

Seriously? We drafted 2 last year and 2 in 2011...

Not sure if Christian Kirksey has been mentioned yet?

 

He's one of the players I was intrigued by at the Senior Bowl.

In the midst of the ILB talk I figured I'd throw his name out there.

I'm watching his lone game from draftcountdown now, he's thus far spent all game covering the slot and rushing from the edge.

He was super miscast at Iowa. Could be a later round steal. 

[skinny21]

It would cost almost as much as it would save and we would be getting rid of the only 2 players who have had any sort of impact with extended playing time.

I'm assuming you mean Bowen and Carriker? Savings would be relatively small this year, but it also takes off next years unwieldy salary for them. Were we to cut them both and add a guy like Houston (might not be possible) then we can try to pick up an end in the draft and I'd feel a lot better about the position. If we can't get an upgrade via FA then sure, keep at least one of them. I actually think cutting Carriker and re-signing him super cheaply (if he's healthy) wouldn't be a bad move. Basically, I like the idea of 3 vets in a rotation with youth competing for the last spot.

Similarly, if we don't re-sign Biggers and Wilson, we can sign a guy that's an upgrade for only slightly more $ than we were paying those two. Particularly if that FA was solid in the slot (could move inside in nickel). We'd upgrade our starters, upgrade our nickel pass def, not spend much more $ and allow our young guys an opportunity to compete for the 4th spot.

I actually love Carriker and like Bowen, but the injuries and drop in play (for Bowen)concern me. We need to at least try to improve the (interior) pass rush. If it doesn't work out then scrap the idea.

[Thekyle1591]

I'm assuming you mean Bowen and Carriker? Savings would be relatively small this year, but it also takes off next years unwieldy salary for them. Were we to cut them both and add a guy like Houston (might not be possible) then we can try to pick up an end in the draft and I'd feel a lot better about the position. If we can't get an upgrade via FA then sure, keep at least one of them. I actually think cutting Carriker and re-signing him super cheaply (if he's healthy) wouldn't be a bad move. Basically, I like the idea of 3 vets in a rotation with youth competing for the last spot.

Similarly, if we don't re-sign Biggers and Wilson, we can sign a guy that's an upgrade for only slightly more $ than we were paying those two. Particularly if that FA was solid in the slot (could move inside in nickel). We'd upgrade our starters, upgrade our nickel pass def, not spend much more $ and allow our young guys an opportunity to compete for the 4th spot.

I actually love Carriker and like Bowen, but the injuries and drop in play (for Bowen)concern me. We need to at least try to improve the (interior) pass rush. If it doesn't work out then scrap the idea.

I think keeping both and maybe looking at Houston or Bj Raji on a relatively cheap contract is a good idea. Of any "hole" we have DL to me is the most concerning, and it either needs to be addressed in the 2nd round of the draft or by getting a talented player out of free agency. If you watch teams like the 49ers, Rams or KC they all have 1 thing in common. A player who can push the pocket and keep the qb from stepping up and evading the edge pressure. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

If that chart goes to 2011, shouldn't James Starks have counted as a starter for RBs in the 6th round?

 

Pro-Football-Reference says he only started 5 games in his career.  And he's never led the team in rushing attempts with his career high of 133 in 2011.  Blame Ryan Grant.

[Emsworth]

Just to add to AZ's position breakdown of starters by round, I found these numbers from the 2012 Week 1 53 rosters by round:

 

1-277

2-214

3-191

4-193

5-144

6-123

7-140

UDFA-412

 

Couldn't find a breakdown by position.

Also have to consider what counts as a starter these days, nickel corners and slot receivers play more than nominal starters etc.

What it does show is the importance of nailing the post-draft signing frenzy. Also they give out lots of supplementary picks in the 7th round

[RemoveSnyder]

Does anyone think we will draft another running back?

 

I think you might want to confine the range between tail-end of the draft, 7th round and UDFA. It always depends on who is there, of course and likewise if something crazy happens like one of the top guys falls really far, to which you might be tempted.

 

Uh, one of the guys who flashed during the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl was "Frankie Q," Franklyn Quiteh of Bloomsburg. Bill Polin basically showed his cards right from the start, Day 1, of the week of practices. He loved the kid, gushed about him.

 

Frankie Q was the superstar of D-II, won the Harlon Hill Trophy, basically the D-II version of the Heisman. He had over 2,000+ yards rushing this year alone. He holds many all-time records.

 

I believe he'll get drafted. That's just from seeing him vs the NFLPA competition and simply how he hit the hole. His first 10 yards of get-off are NFL level. He doesn't have top-end speed or run away ability.

 

When I looked at his tape, it was hard to distinguish what his offensive line was creating versus his own efforts. The Bloomsburg line had multiple All-American guys, like Brian Clarke.

 

What I saw was Frankie Q hitting the hole, getting near 20 yards a pop and eventually getting tracked down or having to use a downfield convoy of blockers to get more yardage. But that first wave, the first 10 yards to 15 yards, was seamless.

 

If Polin is any indicator, he'll definitely get drafted. But the great thing is that he may be around, you never know.

 

* I mention Terrance West later on, CBS has him graded in the 3rd round, I'd be inclined to add Quiteh to that mix as well. *

 

His tape is out there.

...

As the season was going on, the one RB who looked like a lock for the "leftfield, shanahan zone stretch archetype," was Buffalo's Branden Oliver.

 

Undersized, a bowling ball, he was tough and fought for yards. He already came from a Zone stretch running game. Size-wise & Movement-wise he had a bit of Ricky Ervins vibe to him, but that also could have been since he wore #32.

 

He's fairly quick, has some really nice runs but he could pound you for such a small guy. That's why I say he fit the shanahan mold, small but tough. He holds many rushing records at Buffalo. His size, 5'8" - 200 lbs, will likely have him undrafted.

 

Under the radar is he.

...

The Towson guy you speak of is Terrance West. I made a couple posts about him a few weeks ago. He's an interesting guy. I think he could actually be around late. I see that CBS has him elevated really high, right now ... again CBS does that with a lot of players. There are wild fluctuations.

 

He's listed in the 3rd and a lot of that, I think, is becuase he's got bulk but can still move and make really good cuts.

 

He's a guy who looks to have some size and bulk to run between the tackles, but he gets used on the edge quite a bit. He can turn the edge well. I also liked his first 10 yards, similar to Quiteh, but Quiteh has a different body type.

 

West is another distinguished stats guy with the most rushing yards in the NCAA this year.

 

I just don't know how athletic West really is, so I need to see his measurements, times and drill work at the Combine.

...

Another likely UDFA is Tim Flanders out of Sam Houston State. He doesn't overwhelm you with speed. His athleticism is an enigma. One second he looks rather average, next play he somersaults, flips, over-top a defender and lands in the end-zone for a TD.

 

He even, at times, ran away from Texas A&M guys this year and in year's past had some big runs vs "1-AA" teams like Montana. He's got good vision because his cuts and accelerations are on point and seemingly a second before the defense can react.

 

He's a bit undersized and probably a situational guy to begin his career. He's actually a bit of a throw back guy in that he "warms up" as he gets more carries and seems to get stronger as the game goes on. He's not a pounder, he'll try to jump-cut or juke and slip through a gap type of RB.

 

I've liked him for awhile. He was a transfer from K-State.

...

I've also written about Antonio Andrews from Western Kentucky. I actually had him in a mock written a few weeks ago. I stumbled across him after doing some game breakdown for Andrew Jackson and Jonathan Dowling.

 

Andrews really isn't a burner despite what folks try to hype him as. He's got a running style that, if I had to describe it, his legs kind-of scissor back and forth, while his feet seem to hardly get off the ground, almost like if you were sliding your feet back and forth on ice.

 

He was productive, a bit of a pounder and had the knack to bust a run here and there. I think he's a 7th to undrafted type guy.

...

Anyway, one of my favorite RBs in the class is Bishop Sankey. I think he does the most for me as an overall running back. I also think the CBS ranking is sleeping on him. I don't think Carey is that much "better" than Sankey.

 

Basically I'd call Sankey a 2nd rounder, while most have him somewhere between the 2nd and 3rd. If he fell any bit, I'd be tempted so much. I think he runs incredibly well, has such agility for his size and can pound it as well. Some of the jukes and wiggles he made this year were unreal.

 

I also like the kid from Wisconsin, James White. He's got some burst, quickness and can haul off a good scamper here and there. He seems to be projected later-on, so I see value with him.

 

Both of the above guys (Sankey especially) I basically take off the list unless they fall to point where you can't ignore taking them.

...

And I haven't even touched on Dri Archer or De'Anthony Thomas. Basically those guys are more hybrid positions in nature and I categorize Archer more toward the WR role. That's where I want to see him develop.

 

But, as it were, one guy I've liked / loved for awhile is Archer. So, I guess I can mention him. I rank / grade him much higher than many folks. I believe the same thought process which folks see applying to D. Thomas for his draftability also applies to Archer - same principle.

[Thekyle1591]

Lache Seastrunk is my favorite runningback in the draft by a large margin. Built like a tank and has some really really impressive burst and acceleration. If we actually needed a RB id be all over him. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

I think keeping both and maybe looking at Houston or Bj Raji on a relatively cheap contract is a good idea. Of any "hole" we have DL to me is the most concerning, and it either needs to be addressed in the 2nd round of the draft or by getting a talented player out of free agency. If you watch teams like the 49ers, Rams or KC they all have 1 thing in common. A player who can push the pocket and keep the qb from stepping up and evading the edge pressure. 

 

49ers got Justin Smith (whose going to fall off from age at some point...theoretically) in FA.  Rams drafted Brockers in the middle of Round 1.  KC got Poe in round 1, their previous attempts with Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey are both 1st rounders.

 

Speaking of, I feel like Kareem Martin (who could be available in rounds 5 or 6) could eventually be Tyson Jackson.  He plays a bit differently than our guy Jarvis Jenkins, but accomplishes the same thing.  Martin seems to use his length/agility to be very stout against the run.  But offers virtually nothing as a pass rusher.  Not totally sold on Martin as a two gapper, since he doesn't shed all that well, but he doesn't get pushed back.  Could be a decent situational player that could develop into something more.  Basically, the type of draft pick we should replace Kedric Golston with.

 

If Aaron Donald falls to #34, I view him as a mandatory pick.  But I don't even think he lasts into the 20's.  Furthest I can see him fall is #27 to the Saints.  Rob Ryan would love him.  So I don't want to count on him as a potential answer for our DLine problem.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Just to add to AZ's position breakdown of starters by round, I found these numbers from the 2012 Week 1 53 rosters by round:

 

1-277

2-214

3-191

4-193

5-144

6-123

7-140

UDFA-412

 

Couldn't find a breakdown by position.

Also have to consider what counts as a starter these days, nickel corners and slot receivers play more than nominal starters etc.

What it does show is the importance of nailing the post-draft signing frenzy. Also they give out lots of supplementary picks in the 7th round

 

Makes me want to trade down out of the 5th and stock pile 7th rounders.

[Thekyle1591]

Think I changed my opinion on Stephon Tuitt. Liking him alot more after watching some of the tape I found on Manti Teos draft breakdown page. I think the apparent lack of strength when rushing the passer is more about playing to high than strength. Guess everyone is wrong once in a while haha. 

[Laron Burgundy]

Guards have a field day against Shazier, period. Shazier can't shed to save his life, but he's ok?

 

In fact it's not just Guards, any TE, any player really who gets to him, Shazier is not making the tackle. He only beats people by use of speed. If he's untouched, has a free and clear field, he'll make the tackle. If he can chase laterally, he'll run things down. He can shoot gaps or beat an o-lineman to a spot.

 

 

In fact, I'll cite one of Shazier's better games versus Indiana, as an example. He had a ton of tackles that game, he accumulated a bunch of stats, but when the handful of times that a Guard, or TE, or Tackle got to him ... nothing from Shazier.

 

Now those handful of plays were maybe in the range of 3 or 4 times for that specific game (nothing to alter the outcome), however, it was clear as day the difference between untouched Shazier and touched Shazier.

 

Again, where's the cut-up of the IOWA game?

 

Doesn't exist. Yeah, let me tell you this, Iowa stood in there with Ohio State punch for punch. And you don't have be a genius to realize the disparity in athletic abilities between the two programs.

 

I'll tell you what I saw from Shazier during the Iowa game, I saw a guy who got punch drunk. I saw a guy who progressively and "momentously" began to slow down his tempo and his speed (which happens to be his key athletic attribute) after the constant and relentlessly consistent attack of the Iowa run game.

 

I literally witnessed a play where Brandon Scherff released to the 2nd-Level on a Zone run, the run was to Scherff's side & playside toward Shazier, and Scherff met Shazier and hit him so forcefully that it literally knocked Shazier off his feet and flung him around like a helicopter blade.

 

I sat up and started to laugh, because you see things like that in the High School level when a D-1 guy plows over someone who's ceiling is just H.S.

 

It was like a cartoon. Scherff just smoked him that one play.

...

Now, while I think Shazier is going to make plays in the NFL based solely on his athleticism, which I'd cite his key attributes as being quickness & speed, I think he can just survive on that.

But will he thrive? - IDK.

 

I have some reservations on Shazier and one of them is his lack of consistency, also, but especially how he looks when taking on blockers.

 

Prime example: The Orange Bowl. Watch as #62 (who?) for Clemson clears Shazier out of the way for a Tajh Boyd 50+ yard designed QB run, TD.

 

Almost a microcosm, vignette, into Shazier's lack of stoutness at the POA vs blockers.

Matt Millen describes it perfectly @ the 0:50 seconds to 1:00 minute mark of the video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1G5vLU_YCBI#t=63

 

BUT the key attribute I dislike is that he really looks vaguely disinterested in pass coverage. I mean, he literally just drops into Zone and hovers there. There's really no suddenness or quick twitch about him.

 

If the play comes directly to him, he can maybe put a hand on the ball. He did that vs Indiana. It was a simple play. But, overall, I didn't see that speed or quickness show up in pass coverage in single-man match-ups.

 

 

Smith often played in man coverage whereas Shazier was almost entirely in zone.  When both in zone they looked similar in speed/reactions but Shazier was more fundamentally sound.  What you see as "disinterest", I see as solid zone defense.  You'll note he was not typically targeted (oftentimes he would come to make the tackle in someone else's zone).  That is a plus in my book, not a negative.  Smith, on the other hand, had at least 2 times in the Clemson game alone where he left his zone in the flat by trailing too hard after a player who had ran through it earlier, leaving an rb completely uncovered on a wheel route both times.

 

But on to the video you posted, hate to break it to you but if you need any further proof that Matt Millen is an idiot, if his drafts weren't enough, that commentary did it.  What happened is almost the exact OPPOSITE of what he said.  Who is #62?  Clemson's 295 pound senior RG Tyler Shatley.  All-ACC 3rd team, led the Clemson line in knockdown blocks this year.  He lays a huge hit on Shazier, gets low and gets great leverage.  Take a moment to watch him after the hit.  Note that it is actually Shatley's knees that buckle and he's the one who falls backward.  Shazier takes that hit and maintains his balance, that's not another knockdown for Clemson's leader. 

 

But then where did that gaping hole come from?  I'm not sure how Matt Millen is watching it and doesn't see Brandon Thomas rock the DT and then push #55 YARDS out of the hole.  It is CLEARLY Thomas who is the star of that show.  Had #55 held his ground, Boyd would have had to cut further towards Shazier and Shazier would have been in position to make that tackle.  But I see your Clemson video and I raise you one of my own:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNRJoZzCSMQ&feature=player_embedded#t=439

 

Note how #58 (who?) meets Telvin in the open field and pancakes him.  #58 is Clemson's 270 pound sophomore center starting in just his 7th game ever at that point.

 

I'm not sure how you wax so poetically about Shazier's ability to shed blocks and don't consider it a HUGE flaw of Smith's.  Martin is known for having a weak base, so I'm not completely sold on that being a selling point, but Smith rarely met blockers with any force and he's just as bad or worse than Shazier at getting off a block.  To put it bluntly, they both suck at it, but Shazier definitely attacks his blocker more violently.

 

You talk about that Iowa game, the relentless assault of their run game.  They ran the ball 24 times total with 3 rb's.  Also the Iowa program is possibly the most known program in the NCAA for consistently producing offensive linemen.  Including Scherff, who is the #2 rated OT of his draft class.  Not a good example when trying to talk disparity, especially when in comparison to an FSU player.  Disparity would be the difference between Duke and FSU, and that game had a block by Duke's LT where he threw Smith to the ground with just one arm while moving backwards in pass pro.  For reference, Duke's LT is the 35th rated tackle prospect in the same draft class as Scherff.

 

Is Smith a bad player?  No, he's a fluid athlete who looks to have solid enough instincts and a passion for the game, but I would rather draft him to play SS than ILB, and that says something because I have no idea how he performs in deep coverage.  He could be a nickel ILB in long yardage situations or a short yardage SS.  I could see him as a very good specialist, but that's for a team who has the depth to afford that.  Shazier, imo, could be an every down starter.

[Thekyle1591]

Is Smith a bad player?  No, he's a fluid athlete who looks to have solid enough instincts and a passion for the game, but I would rather draft him to play SS than ILB, and that says something because I have no idea how he performs in deep coverage.  He could be a nickel ILB in long yardage situations or a short yardage SS.  I could see him as a very good specialist, but that's for a team who has the depth to afford that.  Shazier, imo, could be an every down starter.

Ha. Did you really need to write that entire essay just to say that? Both guys have their flaws and both have instances where they get destroyed, but the big difference is that Smith flashes strength as well as great athleticism, Is he as athletic as Shazier? No, but Smith is slated to go about 3 rounds later. 

[Laron Burgundy]

You "love" Shazier, yet he is 230. So what is the difference between 217 and 230? Would be suddenly be a better player if he was 230? No. Cleveland's ILB is 6'0 220 and has been a top 5 ILB for years. I also guarantee he won't show up at the combine weighting 217. 

Why cut them when it would do more harm then good. 

 

Think I changed my opinion on Stephon Tuitt. Liking him alot more after watching some of the tape I found on Manti Teos draft breakdown page. I think the apparent lack of strength when rushing the passer is more about playing to high than strength. Guess everyone is wrong once in a while haha. 

 

Want to be wrong again?  I'm assuming you're talking about D'qwell Jackson (can't imagine anyone calling Craig Robertson a top 5 ILB).  Let's try his listed weight at nfl.com.  240 pounds.  Just 20 pounds shy of your 220 listing and puts him in the average size range for MLB's.

 

What difference does 6% of a person's bodyweight make?  It's the difference between a 250 pound and 265 pound defensive end.  A 283 pound OT and a 300 pound one.  But it's not about just body weight, it's about body weight for the position you play.  Point to just one ILB who was successful at under 225 pounds in the past decade.  Just one and I'll let your point stand that weight isn't important at all.  230 is about the cutoff point with guys ranging up to 260.

 

Maybe Telvin shows up weighing 230 and retains his quickness.  If that were the case I wouldn't be against him as an ILB prospect at all, but weight is important.  It's not like height that can be compensated for.  I consider 230 about the minimum to play the position, just like most would consider 6'1 the minimum to play qb, and the difference between 230 and 217 would be the difference between 6'1 and 5'9.

Ha. Did you really need to write that entire essay just to say that? Both guys have their flaws and both have instances where they get destroyed, but the big difference is that Smith flashes strength as well as great athleticism, Is he as athletic as Shazier? No, but Smith is slated to go about 3 rounds later. 

 

He wrote a lot more than I did to cover the topic, so I felt like his response entitled at least a well thought out reply.  And I'm seeing Telvin listed as a 2nd rounder whereas Shazier is late 1st-early 2nd.  To say Shazier doesn't show strength is pure poppy****.  Does he shed blocks extremely well?  No, I'll admit that.  But he doesn't give a lot of ground and he'll explode into oncoming blockers just like he does to ball carriers.

[Thekyle1591]

Want to be wrong again?  I'm assuming you're talking about D'qwell Jackson (can't imagine anyone calling Craig Robertson a top 5 ILB).  Let's try his listed weight at nfl.com.  240 pounds.  Just 20 pounds shy of your 220 listing and puts him in the average size range for MLB's.

 

What difference does 6% of a person's bodyweight make?  It's the difference between a 250 pound and 265 pound defensive end.  A 283 pound OT and a 300 pound one.  But it's not about just body weight, it's about body weight for the position you play.  Point to just one ILB who was successful at under 225 pounds in the past decade.  Just one and I'll let your point stand that weight isn't important at all.  230 is about the cutoff point with guys ranging up to 260.

 

Maybe Telvin shows up weighing 230 and retains his quickness.  If that were the case I wouldn't be against him as an ILB prospect at all, but weight is important.  It's not like height that can be compensated for.  I consider 230 about the minimum to play the position, just like most would consider 6'1 the minimum to play qb, and the difference between 230 and 217 would be the difference between 6'1 and 5'9.

 

He wrote a lot more than I did to cover the topic, so I felt like his response entitled at least a well thought out reply.  And I'm seeing Telvin listed as a 2nd rounder whereas Shazier is late 1st-early 2nd.

Pro football focus had him as 6'0 220, so that is where I got that. Shazier is 230 and he gets beat up by guards, so what is the difference? There really is no difference, and Smith would be the same player if he was 220 and 230, but he will inevitably show up heavier because thats what NFL scouts want to see. I haven't seen anyone mocking him in the 2nd, as that would be a huge reach. 

[darrelgreenie]

34-Morgan Moses-OT
66-Martavis Bryant-WR
98-Craig Loston-SAF
130-Crockett Gillmore-TE
162-L'Damian Washington-WR
194-Caleb Lavey-ILB

[RemoveSnyder]

In a sea of statements that don't ring true.

Smith often played in man coverage whereas Shazier was almost entirely in zone.  When both in zone they looked similar in speed/reactions but Shazier was more fundamentally sound. 

Where do you come up with this stuff or even justify it?

 

Smith made plays in pass coverage, period. Like here:

And here:

...

Below - There, he's playing what looks like Spy. It seems to come off as Zone but he actually may be keying the RB on a Man coverage, but the RB never gets through the line.

 

Anyway, Smith stays exactly where he should versus the Shallow Cross. He doesn't slide, or bite, or over-chase the route, he simply sits where he should and the ball finds him. He does the rest with the INT and return for a TD. THAT is fundamentally sound.

...

If standing around in Zone, looking around but not picking up a receiver, means fundamentally sound, then Shazier gets the cookie. Myself, I'll take the dude that makes plays.

 

Fundamentally sound? - Ha, c'mon man.

Smith, on the other hand, had at least 2 times in the Clemson game alone where he left his zone in the flat by trailing too hard after a player who had ran through it earlier, leaving an rb completely uncovered on a wheel route both times.

Unless you actually know the assignments of the play, who is actually assigned to who, it might be best not to blame Smith for not covering two guys with his one body.

 

Honestly, point them out to me. Give me the timestamp of the video. Then I'll respond to specifics.

 

If you are referring to the play which occurs at the 4:21 minute mark (clemson video, below), it's clear that Smith has inside Zone and picks up Watkins on the shallow cross. The DB, #26, is the one who followed Watkins inside and allowed the RB to have free space on the swing route.

...

Here, I'll give you one. So while we are at it, let's just forget about the coverage play he makes at the 1:02 minute mark of the video:

...

^ Again, another example of how Smith impacts the passing game. While in Single-Man coverage on the RB, he's got good position and makes a play on the ball, with a PD. Anytime you want to point out a specific play Shazier made in the passing game, by all means, do so.

 

How about the 4:00 minute mark of the Clemson video (above). How about that ZONE coverage he has, where he simply drops into space to get another PD against a crossing route Sammy Watkins?

But I see your Clemson video and I raise you one of my own:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNRJoZzCSMQ&feature=player_embedded#t=439

 

Note how #58 (who?) meets Telvin in the open field and pancakes him.  #58 is Clemson's 270 pound sophomore center starting in just his 7th game ever at that point.

 

I'm not sure how you wax so poetically about Shazier's ability to shed blocks and don't consider it a HUGE flaw of Smith's.

 

I've seen this cut-up all before, but if something as dramatic as you say happened, actually did happen, then I’m sure I would have remember it. Please give me a specific timestamp to look at in order to respond to a specific play.

 

I can't watch 8 minutes of video to just find this oddity of a play where infinite possibilities could have lead to why Smith fell down, if he did at all.

 

I really have no idea which play you are talking about.

Martin is known for having a weak base

 

What the hell are you even talking about?

A guy who at 6'4" and 305 pounds, with not a lot of length, who played so well that folks still want him as a starting LT in the NFL. A dude who was basically the ONLY guy to actually block Aaron Donald at the Senior Bowl.

 

Weak base?

 

The one guy who I would have thought could have handled Donald, purely from a Bullrush vs Anchor perspective, was Gabe Jackson. Everything on tape from Jackson said he had the best anchor in this class for pass-pro. He actually got pushed back by Donald.

 

Martin stood his ground with Donald. In my perspective Zach Martin drops his ass, arches his back and can anchor just fine.

 

Where are these aberrations coming from?

Just stop the spin.

so I'm not completely sold on that being a selling point, but Smith rarely met blockers with any force and he's just as bad or worse than Shazier at getting off a block.  To put it bluntly, they both suck at it, but Shazier definitely attacks his blocker more violently.

 

Now that last sentence is all just malarkey water. I don’t think I've seen Shazier actually play downhill at all. I'll see him slide, crow-hop forward and then brace himself for contact, receive it. He may, on occasion, actually withstand the blow, but he sure as **** never hands it out.

 

Please watch the play at the 2 minute 18 second mark vs Michigan

...

^ That sure is some downhill thump'n right there.

 

'Ole Schofield there, a Day 3 guy, finding him in space and moving him easily back and wide. But somehow I'm supposed to buy the hype from the same peeps who tout Shazier as a 1st rounder or real high 2nd rounder. That is the disparity I speak of, when a 4th or 5th rounder can handle a 2nd rounder.

...

I'll give you a Shazier pancake, go to 3:25 on the video of the Michigan game. Now, is that holding there by the TE downfield? - Yep, you bet. But that play, nonetheless, is finished with Shazier on his tuchus.

...

I was going to make that exact statement, the one you just rattled off, in my last mammoth post but for Smith instead of Shazier, but I saved it for a later rebuttal.

 

Personally, I think Smith is more keen to actually initiate contact and plays more downhill, more violently than Shazier and he's doing it at 10 to 12 pounds less than Shazier.

 

Now for Smith, he might not blow someone one up but he certainly gets going downhill and actually tries to charge forward and meet a blocker. I see Shazier wait and receive.

 

I agree that both leave something to be desired but ...

 

Absolute crap that Shazier is more violent. I haven't seen it. Again, you'll need to give me a timestamp of the play where he's charging downhill. Please don't give me the instances when Shazier does one of his run blitzes, of which are many.

 

Those times he shoots gaps, ends up in the backfield are definite run blitzes and I've seen it a ton from Shazier.

...

Pitt video below.

Please reference the 1:52 minute mark and see who initiates the pressure on the QB (while being held) for the eventual dead duck, INT.

 

The play at 2:14. He gets the Offensive Tackle (LT) who slides down at an angle onto Smith, to his outside shoulder and tries to square him up. I just want you to see how Smith fights with that guy. Just look at the way he arches his back and drives and punches and works against him.

 

That tackle BTW is #69 - Adam Bisnowaty, listed at 6'6" - 300 lbs. So do you think standing ground against a guy who has an 80 pound advantage is worthy enough of an example for you?

 

Now if you want you can go and search where that LT is ranked amongst his class, I already know.

...

^ Really struggling with words here ... I don't know how to describe it other than Smith should lose that battle but he doesn't. Smith should get driven backward but he doesn't.

 

I love the fact that he looks like he's trying with all his might to get that junk block off of him. Love how he swings his arms with a jab. It's ... **** words.

 

Smith is small but has fight.

 

At the 3:08 mark, Here's an example of Smith meeting up with the FB (#31) one-on-one. It's not a play where Smith blows him up, in fact it's a play where the FB gets some movement and push.

 

I want to identify this play becuase even if you call it a "loss" for Smith, it however wasn't some demolition event. You still see that Smith doesn't shy from contact.

 

It looks to me like their helmets collide and Smith's hat gets slightly jarred loose, like a chin strap slid or something. It was a violent contact play and you can even hear the pads pop in the audio.

 

Smith didn't wait like what I've seen from that other dude, he actually got downhill and met the FB.

 

That's my point. Smith doesn't shy away from contact, at least Smith tries and is willing to take on guys much large than he.

But on to the video you posted, hate to break it to you but if you need any further proof that Matt Millen is an idiot, if his drafts weren't enough, that commentary did it. What happened is almost the exact OPPOSITE of what he said.

 

Millen does mention Brandon Thomas. What were you listening to?

 

It wasn't opposite, how so?

 

He describes the play exactly how it unfolds. He shows Thomas angle block down, with a combo on the DT with the playside Guard, the Guard establishes outside leverage thanks to Thomas who then slides to the 2nd level and Millen annotates it, showing him slide onto the backside LB.

 

Millen used those exact words.

But then where did that gaping hole come from?  I'm not sure how Matt Millen is watching it and doesn't see Brandon Thomas rock the DT and then push #55 YARDS out of the hole.  It is CLEARLY Thomas who is the star of that show.  Had #55 held his ground, Boyd would have had to cut further towards Shazier and Shazier would have been in position to make that tackle.

 

He annotates the very play and describes Thomas' angle block down on DT with a combo and says, "look at him slide to the backside linebacker #55."

 

Millen did describe it. Again, where are your ears?

 

Millen goes on to praise Shatley, who "kickedout" Shazier on a pull. And that is exactly what happened. As long as the kickout block gives enough room for the runner to get through the hole, the job is done.

 

Look, Thomas gets that combo block and seals the inside of the hole on that one LB. Shatley gets the other seal on Shazier with the kickout. I don't know why this is difficult.

 

Shazier is only in a "position to make the tackle" if Boyd is completely braindead and decides to bounce it outside, becuase Shazier was moved outward from the hole, hence the "kickout."

 

That run, blocking scheme, is a standard play. You'll see us run that play next year. It's not complex. Perhaps Shazier was told to maintain outside leverage.

Who is #62?  Clemson's 295 pound senior RG Tyler Shatley.  All-ACC 3rd team, led the Clemson line in knockdown blocks this year.

 

Again, Who?

 

Millen does say Shatley by name and describes exactly what he did. Millen calls him by name and says, "here he pulls on a Power pull, right on Shazier."

 

Besides which, If you really thought I was hanging my hat on only what Millen said, that I was swayed simply by his words, that I'm in awe of his football genius and unable to comprehend things myself, then you've got another thing coming.

 

I'm guessing Shatley is a late round or more likely an undrafted guy, right?

He lays a huge hit on Shazier, gets low and gets great leverage.  Take a moment to watch him after the hit.  Note that it is actually Shatley's knees that buckle and he's the one who falls backward.  Shazier takes that hit and maintains his balance, that's not another knockdown for Clemson's leader.

 

Wrong. Shatley does not fall backward. He does drop to knee but I have no idea why he slipped off the block.

 

I don't think I'd call it a huge hit it either, myself, as you try to build up your guy once again. Shatley is moving laterally across the line before getting three steps of momentum upfield before contact with RS. That's not nearly the same circumstance as firing off straight ahead and getting a few yards build-up.

 

What you will notice is that the contact originates BEYOND the line of scrimmage, at the Ohio State 48 yard line. The next frame shows Shazier back a yard and offbalance. Shazier does not stay on balance contrary to what you say.

 

He doesn't loose his feet or get pancaked, but offbalance is a state in which you can't react fast enough to shift your body in another direction.

 

Look:

 

^ First frame shows the inital contact at the 48 yard line. Shazier is low, lowers his head, Shatley is low too.

 

^ Next frame, Shazier is popped upward and out, His shoulders tell the story, he's too high.

...

Watch the GIF. There's your contact between Shatley and Shazier. Watch as Shazier pops up and back. Shazier ricochets out and backward.

...

^ That 'ain't on balance son.

 

In fact he is knocked back a yard while also outward from the hole. His weight gets flown high and wide from the contact. In fact, if it wasn't for the TE (who Shazier gets knocked into), he actually might not ever get as close to Boyd as he did.

 

Look carefully as Shazier gets moved outward, flung into the TE and the TE pushes Shazier forward. That may be the only reason why he wasn't knocked even further out of the hole.

 

The fact that Shatley falls to one knee after contact (not backward as you claim, mind you, but forwards) I could care less. If that is what you are hanging your hat on, that's a weak stand.

 

Shazier got sealed outside enough so that Boyd zoomed through the hole untouched.

 

Not to mention that Bryant outruns Shazier to Boyd. Effort to chase down the play then becomes a question.

 

The play, however, shows to me, as have many plays before, that Shazier doesn't attack downhill. I don't care if the Guard slipped off the block. I don't care that Shazier didn't get buried. Shazier stood there and waited for the block. He received it and wasn't able to make the tackle. 

 

Fact is, he didn't blow it up.

 

And, besides which, I don't need a lesson on Brandon Thomas, I know all about him. He certainly did a good job with his Angle Block, but that's the ****ing point. That angle block is meant for the Tackle to "catch" the LB who naturally flows with the play. That block of opposite angle to the flow of the play affords the Tackle an easy stalk. He's supposed to make that block and he does.

 

Oh and thanks for adding another token to my Brandon Thomas campaign. Of course Thomas is good.

Also the Iowa program is possibly the most known program in the NCAA for consistently producing offensive linemen.

 

No ****, that's why they are a great measuring stick.

 

Including Scherff, who is the #2 rated OT of his draft class.  Not a good example when trying to talk disparity

 

If you think for one second that your "everydown" starter is not going to face similar ability in the NFL, you and he are in for a surprise.

 

But that doesn't account for the Iowa LG, Conner Boffelli, who nobody talks about but me. He's clearly going to be an undrafted player, maybe get some camp invites. Yet he too got up under Shazier in that game.

 

especially when in comparison to an FSU player.  Disparity would be the difference between Duke and FSU, and that game had a block by Duke's LT where he threw Smith to the ground with just one arm while moving backwards in pass pro.  For reference, Duke's LT is the 35th rated tackle prospect in the same draft class as Scherff.

 

Again, give me the timestamp on the video and I'll be able to respond to specific plays. Since Smith has shown great amounts of strength in other games, I'm going to assume this was yet another whimsical aberration, probably something like he slipped or overextended, not actually got out-muscled.

 

But I do know a little something about Duke's o-line and they are very much underrated, FWIW.

You talk about that Iowa game, the relentless assault of their run game.  They ran the ball 24 times total with 3 rb's

 

It was 27 actually, but Please, just watch the game and don't try to use stats to divine something that isn't there.

 

If you watch the game, you'll see a trend real quick, Ferentz wanted to establish the run. The use if pass was clearly set up by the run. Just watch the first drive, it tells the story.

 

The first touchdown of the game, Iowa's first possession, started at their own 20. They ran the ball 7 times that drive and the run is what set up the pass. The four passes interspersed in that drive, before the 5th pass, which was the 2 yard pass for the TD, were all real dinky-dunkers. I mean 3 of the 5 passes that drive netted 6 yards or less. The other two were still short range passes that got modest YAC.

 

The TD pass on that drive occurred at the goalline, off of run play-fake, to their TE for 2 yards. Again, it was oldschool.

 

The Iowa offense wasn't trying to reinvent the wheel, they weren't getting all flashy Urban Meyer Spread, it was an offense that we've seen from the 70's, 80's and 90's. Everyone knew what was coming and that vaunted Ohio State team, ranked whatever they were at the time, Top 5, just couldn't stop it.

 

Iowa didn't get a bunch of yards running, no. It was tough sledding but that wasn't because of Shazier.

 

The Touchdowns that Iowa got, they were passes. But those passes for TDs were directly off of play action from strong running looks. And Ohio State honored the run because Iowa made it clear they were going to keep with it and they proved that they could gain yardage with the run.

 

The final drive of the 1st Half for Iowa, with 5 passes versus 2 runs, in an attempt to add to their 17 to 10 first half lead, along with the 2nd half drives, where one drive was simply a single pass for an 80 yard TD, they eventually had a couple of drives at the end of the 2nd Half when they found themselves behind, needing points, all that skewed the results in terms of total attempts of runs versus passes.

 

If all you want to do is look at the numbers fine, but the game plan was to establish the run and use playaction off of it for passes.

 

At some point they simply had to pass once they were behind and that was well into the 2nd Half.

...

Here's my fundamental problem LB.

 

For some reason last year you hated Ogletree from Georgia. If I remember correct, you basically said you wouldn't draft him. You said things like he wasn't fundamental, had no real LBing technique, was overrated, yada-yada-yada.

 

I simply looked at the dude for his athleticism. I said he was a 1st rounder and he was a 1st rounder. I based my analysis on how sudden, how quick and how aggressive he was, despite the drawbacks. He ends up being a 1st rounder.

 

People even last year talked about him moving back to safety once in the NFL. I balked at that notion. People complained about this technique, or that fundamental, or the other something like leverage, containment, whatever. I thought a lot of it was overblown or simply hyperbole. 

 

Safe to say I totally disagreed with you about Ogletree last year.

 

So what does Olgetree do once he's in the league? - Exactly what we thought he would do.

 

He strips a ball, picks up a loose ball fumble and returns a helluva long way back for a TD. He drops into coverage and intercepts a pass and returns it a helluva long way for a TD. He'll fly around. His athleticism and hair-on-fire play translated exactly as it was seen.

 

Doesn't mean he's not fallible or without holes, or that he's the next Ray Lewis, far from it. But sometimes you just have to distance yourself from the cliche knocks and just see the athlete, the clay and realize what the guy does well and then put him in those same situations for your team.

 

So, I just find it funny that you could hate Ogletree last year but love Shazier this year. I'm clearly not getting the same vibe with Shazier as I got with Ogletree. They are different players, at least to me, but similar in a vein, in that both guys I would call more an athlete than a technician.

 

I also find it funny that you can love Shazier for being an undersized athlete playing LB, but only see Smith as situational or try to make him a position switch becuase of size ... even in the face of contradictory visual evidence.

 

Smith is tough and special and plays bigger than his weight. Smith's frame, incidentally, is actually taller and longer than LaVonte David's, FWIW.

Is Smith a bad player?  No, he's a fluid athlete who looks to have solid enough instincts and a passion for the game, but I would rather draft him to play SS than ILB, and that says something because I have no idea how he performs in deep coverage.  He could be a nickel ILB in long yardage situations or a short yardage SS.  I could see him as a very good specialist, but that's for a team who has the depth to afford that.  Shazier, imo, could be an every down starter.

 

People wanted to move Lavonte David to SS. People wanted to move Ogletree to SS. It's a mistake to move someone to a generic position just becuase he doesn't fit the mold.

 

I thought you would have believed in that since you're happy as peet for Aaron Donald.

 

I just ... play Smith at LB, that's what he does. If you want him to weigh more, hand him over to the strength coach and add the right weight.

[Dukes and Skins]

Btw just wanted to give an update to y'all. I've now accepted a position as a guest blogger for Fanspeak.com so I'll be writing for them both Redskins and NFL draft material. I'm always open to suggestions and I figure ES is a great place to ask for suggestions 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Btw just wanted to give an update to y'all. I've now accepted a position as a guest blogger for Fanspeak.com so I'll be writing for them both Redskins and NFL draft material. I'm always open to suggestions and I figure ES is a great place to ask for suggestions 

 

Will you have any input in Fanspeak's mock draft simulator?  Their stuff so far seems much more realistic than the other mock draft simulator.