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2014 Comprehensive Nfl Draft Database


Dukes and Skins

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A guy who's had a quietly good, strong, impressive  week at the Senior Bowl has been Jalen Saunders. I said before in this thread that he was electric. He repeatedly beat folks on double moves, pure speed, crisp routes and most importantly, made the catch. Size, size & weight and durability will always be the drawbacks, concerns.

 

My concern is that he's a little too feisty for his size.  Steve Smith on the Panthers is built.  Saunders is too small to be throwing his body around and trying to break free from two tacklers who are already wrapping him up.

 

He's also a very willing and aggressive blocker in the run game.  Seems far more aggressive than some of the bigger receivers/tight ends in this class.  Sometimes he's definitely holding, but how often are they even going to call that from a WR?

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This seems like a good spot for this discussion.  I was killing time with yet another mock draft and I came away with this:

 

Your score is: 4298 (Drafting Ability: A, Player Quality A, Future Draft Picks: C-)

Your Picks:
Round 2 Pick 6 (T.B.): 
C.J. Mosley, OLB, Alabama (A)
Round 2 Pick 7 (JAX): 
Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri (A)
Round 3 Pick 5 (NYJ): 
Gabe Jackson, OG, Mississippi State (A)
Round 3 Pick 10 (NYG): 
Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh (A)
Round 4 Pick 3 (ATL): 
Yawin Smallwood, ILB, Connecticut (A)
Round 4 Pick 7 (OAK): 
Troy Niklas, TE, Notre Dame (A)
Round 4 Pick 9 (BUF): 
Pierre Desir, CB, Lindenwood (A-)
Round 4 Pick 13 (NYG): 
Jeremiah Attaochu, OLB, Georgia Tech (B-)
Round 4 Pick 15 (NYJ): 
Jared Abbrederis, WR, Wisconsin (A)
Round 5 Pick 2: 
Bryan Stork, C, Florida State (A)
Round 6 Pick 2: 
Jalen Saunders, WR, Oklahoma (A-)
Round 6 Pick 6 (ATL): 
Robert Herron, WR, Wyoming (A)
Round 7 Pick 2: 
Kirby Van Der Kamp, P, Iowa State (A)

Your Future Picks:

2016 Round 1 Pick

 

Now I only post it because I did something I wouldn't normally do; I traded next year's first because with Mosley and Ealy there after an initial trade down, I thought that both of those would be quality first round picks for the Redskins.  My rationale was by trading next year's first round pick for an early second rounder who I considered (at this moment, still need to see how all the pre-draft stuff shakes out) sure fire first rounders at a position of need for the Redskins, that it was worth the trade.  I also considered that by getting two high quality draft choices, next year's first rounder would be much lower in the round than our current 2nd place spot.

 

So I say all that to get to this interesting (to me at least) topic of discussion:

 

Who would have to fall and to where to make you consider trading next year's first rounder?

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This seems like a good spot for this discussion.  I was killing time with yet another mock draft and I came away with this:

 

Your score is: 4298 (Drafting Ability: A, Player Quality A, Future Draft Picks: C-)

 

 

Epoch, where did you do that mock draft?

 

Sorry for the noob-ish question.  I'm trying to get smarter about such stuff.

 

Thanks!

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That's donald for you.  He was doing that all year.  I'm hoping he falls to our 3rd because of height but I have no problem drafting him in the 2nd.  He's going to destroy a lot of guards.

I don't think he'll drop that far. Mike Daniels, a DE in a similar mold at only 6'0" ~290, dropped to the 4th round not only because of his height, but he also had a shoulder-injury that dropped his stock and prevented him from raising it in the off-season before the draft like Donald is doing right now.

With how Mike Daniels performed this season with a healthy shoulder, I think some front offices may have taken note that DEs of those dimensions aren't really at a disadvantage. With Aaron Donald being fully healthy and ready to contribute immediately, and that he's said to be a lot like Daniels but an even better pass-rusher, I think he'll be nabbed in the 2nd, although I won't discount the possibility of someone taking him in the 1st.

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Anyone post this yet? Whew!

https://i.imgflip.com/69yxi.gif

Wow. That is awesome. 

How can you argue that the 2011 class was deeper, and then list two of the teams who drafted first round QBs that year as having QB situations just as terrible as the 2010 Cardinals?

 

And we'll have to disagree that the Jags and Vikings won't be inclined to look at drafting a QB early.

I'm saying at the time of the draft the qb position was very deep. 

I don't know how we pass up Donald if he is there at 34. 

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Couple of Qs for the hoard:

 

1.  Which pundits have the best draft-day record for picks (in terms of getting the right selections)?

2.  Which pundits have the best track record on gauging the picks' potential?

There are websites that evaluate prognosticators' abilities to correctly guess the top 100 players drafted, as well as which teams will select which players.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1621776-who-was-the-most-accurate-draft-expert-this-year#articles/1621776-who-was-the-most-accurate-draft-expert-this-year

 

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/2/17/3998482/2013-nfl-draft-how-accurate-are-the-experts-mel-kiper-jr-among-the

 

As far as accurately assessing picks' potentials, I don't know that I've seen anything like that myself.  That is what scouts and GMs do moreso than draft pundits.

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http://first-pick.com/Default.aspx

 

But be very afraid.  It's addicting despite having no foundation in reality.

 

But it kills time and is football related as we wait for real football events.

There's already an entire thread dedicated to that "game" ... it's addicting but also a crock of you know what. Totally unrealistic trades all over the place. I played it for a while until it just got way too unrealistic. 

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There's already an entire thread dedicated to that "game" ... it's addicting but also a crock of you know what. Totally unrealistic trades all over the place. I played it for a while until it just got way too unrealistic. 

As I said it has no foundation in reality, but I do like trying to play against the other "teams" to see when I can trade down and still get the guy I want or when I have to jump on them at that point.  Agree it is nothing more than a game with unrealistic trades.

 

The reason I posted that here instead of the other thread is because I was hoping for some discussion re: trading our first round pick next year and that was an example of a scenario where I would consider doing so.  Most of the knowledgable draftniks are here and not there, for the reason you outlined above.

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That gif 100% sold me on Donald. My god ... if we're going to draft a DE I want that man on my team. What a BULL.

 

If we can get Donald in the mid-2nd ... I do what D&S suggested before and I trade back and get an extra 3rd rounder.

 

2. Aaron Donald, DE Pitt

3. Yawin Smallwood, ILB UConn

3. Martavias Bryant, WR Clemson

4. Bryan Stork, OC/OG Florida State

5. Stanley Jean-Baptistse, CB Nebraska

6. Colt Lyerla, TE Oregon 

7. PUNTER

 

*If you can trade Cousins for a 2nd then you do it, 100%. If you can get a 3rd and 5th for him, I entertain that idea as well. It's a new regime ... let's get as many early draft picks as possible!

 

"The dream we traded Cousins scenario" - 40th pick from Minnesota

 

2 (40): Zach Martin, OG Stanford - from Minnesota

2 (48): Aaron Donald, DE Pitt *trade pick #34 to move back into mid-2nd, gain mid-3rd

3 (66): Martavias Bryant, WR Clemson

3 (94): Yawin Smallwood, ILB UConn **trade mid-3rd and get late 3rd, another 5th

4 (98): Pierre Desir, CB Lindenwood 

5 (130): Jalen Saunders, SWR Oklahoma

5 (158): Justin Ellis, NT Louisiana Tech

6 (162): Colt Lyerla, TE Oregon

7 (194): PUNTER

 

If you could play nostraudamus and know this would be your draft, it would allow you to release Carriker & Bowen and replace with Baker re-sign and Donald. Cofield could even kick to DE on plays where Ellis gets involved. You don't need to target a WR in free agency (maybe a 1-2 year stop gap vet type player) ... roll with Saunders at SWR and Bryant at WR2. Smallwood would be your starting ILB or compete with Robinson and a cheap vet FA. Martin would start at LG. Lyerla would replace Fred Davis and Desir could be groomed to be Hall's replacement.

 

You could literally eek out enough contributors via that draft that you could re-sign Orakpo/Riley/Hall/Biggers/Baker and be frugal with FA money and sign "stop gap" at WR while the rooks get adjusted and spend all your "excess" cap space on getting the best Safety(s) and RT money can buy.

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So do you believe that the difference between the two is significant enough to warrant getting Jones where he is projected or is it better to wait for Smallwood, who is expected to go later by most?

 

I just dont see it with Smallwood. I look at Jones and see someone who can cover TE's in a 3-4 ILB role and also provide that dynamic of rushing the passer. Put him in a Lawrence Timmons type role and let him wreck havoc 

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That gif 100% sold me on Donald. My god ... if we're going to draft a DE I want that man on my team. What a BULL.

 

If we can get Donald in the mid-2nd ... I do what D&S suggested before and I trade back and get an extra 3rd rounder.

 

2. Aaron Donald, DE Pitt

3. Yawin Smallwood, ILB UConn

3. Martavias Bryant, WR Clemson

4. Bryan Stork, OC/OG Florida State

5. Stanley Jean-Baptistse, CB Nebraska

6. Colt Lyerla, TE Oregon 

7. PUNTER

 

*If you can trade Cousins for a 2nd then you do it, 100%. If you can get a 3rd and 5th for him, I entertain that idea as well. It's a new regime ... let's get as many early draft picks as possible!

 

"The dream we traded Cousins scenario" - 40th pick from Minnesota

 

2 (40): Zach Martin, OG Stanford - from Minnesota

2 (48): Aaron Donald, DE Pitt *trade pick #34 to move back into mid-2nd, gain mid-3rd

3 (66): Martavias Bryant, WR Clemson

3 (94): Yawin Smallwood, ILB UConn **trade mid-3rd and get late 3rd, another 5th

4 (98): Pierre Desir, CB Lindenwood 

5 (130): Jalen Saunders, SWR Oklahoma

5 (158): Justin Ellis, NT Louisiana Tech

6 (162): Colt Lyerla, TE Oregon

7 (194): PUNTER

 

If you could play nostraudamus and know this would be your draft, it would allow you to release Carriker & Bowen and replace with Baker re-sign and Donald. Cofield could even kick to DE on plays where Ellis gets involved. You don't need to target a WR in free agency (maybe a 1-2 year stop gap vet type player) ... roll with Saunders at SWR and Bryant at WR2. Smallwood would be your starting ILB or compete with Robinson and a cheap vet FA. Martin would start at LG. Lyerla would replace Fred Davis and Desir could be groomed to be Hall's replacement.

 

You could literally eek out enough contributors via that draft that you could re-sign Orakpo/Riley/Hall/Biggers/Baker and be frugal with FA money and sign "stop gap" at WR while the rooks get adjusted and spend all your "excess" cap space on getting the best Safety(s) and RT money can buy.

I like a combo of the 2 drafts

2nd: Donald

3rd: Smallwood

3rd: Bryant

4th: Brandon Thomas 

5th: Saunders

6th: Ellis

7th: Punter 

I don't know if you could have a more perfect draft. 

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I just dont see it with Smallwood. I look at Jones and see someone who can cover TE's in a 3-4 ILB role and also provide that dynamic of rushing the passer. Put him in a Lawrence Timmons type role and let him wreck havoc 

Jones is not a great player. Is he a good athlete? Absolutely. Can he cover tight ends? Probably. Is he an instinctual run defender? Certainly not. When you look at Jones, you see a superb athlete who is not a great football player. He struggles rushing the passer and doesn't make an impact in the run game or blitzing. When you look at Smallwood, you see an instinctual run defender who excels at covering the pass and defending the run, as well as blitz. Is he a great athlete? No but his instincts make up for it, you could say the opposite for Jones, who is a great athlete but at times is slow reacting. 

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Just saying, with how much everyone is drooling on Justin Ellis, he probably won't be there in the rounds we're hoping he will.  CBS has already moved him up to the 4th round.  I don't think he's going to be a sleeper come draft day.  If we want him, we might have to drop our 3rd on him.

What would make you think that? His film doesn't scream starter and isn't exactly great. The fact that he isn't a 3 down player means he won't be picked before the 4th. 

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I just dont see it with Smallwood. I look at Jones and see someone who can cover TE's in a 3-4 ILB role and also provide that dynamic of rushing the passer. Put him in a Lawrence Timmons type role and let him wreck havoc 

 

I'm with you on Smallwood.  Haven't really watched much of Jones, but Smallwood just doesn't seem like a starting ilb in the nfl.  I don't get the love.

 

A guy I'm surprised hasn't been mentioned is Preston Brown from Louisville.  Surprising acceleration for a guy his size.  Able to get off blocks and a sure tackler.  Coverage may not be his strong point, but you could probably say that about just about any ilb prospect this year.  From what I've seen so far I like him more than a lot of the other later linebacker prospects.

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I'm with you on Smallwood.  Haven't really watched much of Jones, but Smallwood just doesn't seem like a starting ilb in the nfl.  I don't get the love.

 

A guy I'm surprised hasn't been mentioned is Preston Brown from Louisville.  Surprising acceleration for a guy his size.  Able to get off blocks and a sure tackler.  Coverage may not be his strong point, but you could probably say that about just about any ilb prospect this year.  From what I've seen so far I like him more than a lot of the other later linebacker prospects.

Watch Smallwood vs Michigan. As good a game as you will ever see an ILB play. 

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Sometimes I feel like we overvalue picks. I feel like a team would totally spend a 3rd or 4th on someone they feel could do very well for them on the d-line even if he's not an every down guy.

If we land someone in the 3rd who only plays 50% of the snaps, but plays very well during that 50%. it's worth it.

Besides the TE position, when was the last time our franchise has had a pretty good contributor from the 3rd round? Hankerson is a question mark. LeRibeus is a question mark. Jamal Brown who we traded for never got healthy. Can't even remember 2009. 2008 was Chad Rinehart.

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