RonArtest15

***2019-2020 NBA Season Thread***

Recommended Posts

Me too.  He is special and the Mavs have a bright future.

 

Trae Young is the one I'm a little hesitant to buy in on.  I liked his competitive fire at Oklahoma and defended him against some of the attacks from our crusty Big 12 fans.  And I love what a PG like him can do for an offensive foundation.  But the defense is the issue.  He still has the body of a kid.  They really need Hunter to pan out and then they need to find three other defenders because Young will always be one of the worst defensive players in the NBA.  He doesn't have a chance at getting over a screen or stopping a post up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Destino said:

he's 20 and he's almost averaging a 30 point triple double.  Those numbers will come down as the season goes on but Luka looks like a superstar in the making.  Perfect replacement for Dirk in Dallas.  Couldn't have written it any better. 

 

While we are on the subject of Luka who was it that said he, at 19 year of age, wouldn't get much better because he had been playing pro ball in Europe?  I remember someone saying that in this thread. 

 

It was me, but I suspect a lot of the improvement we are seeing is just statistical anomaly.  His scoring is way up because his 2 point shooting percent is way up (his 3 point percent is actually down).  I doubt that's sustainable.  He's currently shooting 60% from 10-16 ft vs. 37% last year.  I'll bet he ends the year quite a bit lower (he probably won't get down as far as the 37% he was last year, but he'll end quite a bit below 60% and for his career will be closer to 37% than 60%).

 

The other thing that's happened is he's just getting more opportunities.  His usage is up.  His assists are up, but so are his turnovers.

 

That's not really him getting better.

 

(At the beginning of last season, Griffin started really hot (he was like 50% from 3 at one point in time).  Somebody tried to tell me I was wrong because I'd said it was a mistake for the Pistons to trade for him.  He cooled off.  The Pistons squeaked into the playoffs as an 8th seed and were out after one series.  This year Griffin is already hurt.  I was right.  The Pistons shouldn't have traded for him.  The beginning of last season was just a statistical anomaly.

 

For now, like Griffin, I suspect I'm right about Luka.  He might bet a little better than last year, but he isn't as good as he looks now.  He'll never be a real MVP candidate.  This is just because he's having a really good stretch at the beginning of this season.)

Edited by PeterMP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, PeterMP said:

 

It was me, but I suspect a lot of the improvement we are seeing is just statistical anomaly.  His scoring is way up because his 2 point shooting percent is way up (his 3 point percent is actually down).  I doubt that's sustainable.  He's currently shooting 60% from 10-16 ft vs. 37% last year.  I'll bet he ends the year quite a bit lower (he probably won't get down as far as the 37% he was last year, but he'll end quite a bit below 60% and for his career will be closer to 37% than 60%).

 

The other thing that's happened is he's just getting more opportunities.  His usage is up.  His assists are up, but so are his turnovers.

 

That's not really him getting better.

 

(At the beginning of last season, Griffin started really hot (he was like 50% from 3 at one point in time).  Somebody tried to tell me I was wrong because I'd said it was a mistake for the Pistons to trade for him.  He cooled off.  The Pistons squeaked into the playoffs as an 8th seed and were out after one series.  This year Griffin is already hurt.  I was right.  The Pistons shouldn't have traded for him.  The beginning of last season was just a statistical anomaly.

 

For now, like Griffin, I suspect I'm right about Luka.  He might bet a little better than last year, but he isn't as good as he looks now.  He'll never be a real MVP candidate.  This is just because he's having a really good stretch at the beginning of this season.)

We don’t need to hear you go around and around about where Dočić has improved his game.  The fact of the matter is he has improved his game and you honestly have no idea whether that is sustainable or not.  He’s only 20 years old.  Of course he was always going to improve.  Why is it so hard for folks like you to just admit when you’re wrong?  It didn’t take a rocket scientist to predict that trading for Blake Griffin wasn’t going to put the Pistons in the mix for the conference title.  But kudos anyway 👍

Edited by -JB-
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, Mr. Sinister said:

 

Your boy Russ gonna be a playoff Manchurian candidate

 

Hes learned his place in this league.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
45 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

 

Hes learned his place in this league.

 

That's exactly what his programming would have you to believe... Til in May, he locks Harden in a closet and jack's up like 60 shots.

Edited by Mr. Sinister
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, -JB- said:

We don’t need to hear you go around and around about where Dočić has improved his game.  The fact of the matter is he has improved his game and you honestly have no idea whether that is sustainable or not.  He’s only 20 years old.  Of course he was always going to improve.  Why is it so hard for folks like you to just admit when you’re wrong?  It didn’t take a rocket scientist to predict that trading for Blake Griffin wasn’t going to put the Pistons in the mix for the conference title.  But kudos anyway 👍

 

I didn't say he wasn't going to improve, and Destino didn't say I said he wasn't going to improve.  In the context of talking about other rookies, I said he wasn't going to improve much (as much as other rookie players).

 

Random fluctuations in stats due to luck aren't improvement.  They're random luck that happens over small sample sizes.

 

I'll admit that I'm wrong when I'm wrong, and in this context, I've even given conditions that would indicate I'm wrong.  Doncic is currently 2nd in the NBA in ESPN's PIE state.  He's 4th in PER.  Tied for 4th in WS and 2nd in VORP.

 

If he keeps doing what he's doing and stays that high, he'll be an serious candidate for MVP.  And I'll be wrong (and I'll happily admit it).  I don't think that's going to happen.

Edited by PeterMP
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

I didn't say he wasn't going to improve, and Destino didn't say I said he wasn't going to improve.  In the context of talking about other rookies, I said he wasn't going to improve much (as much as other rookie players).

 

Random fluctuations in stats due to luck aren't improvement.  They're random luck that happens over small sample sizes.

 

I'll admit that I'm wrong when I'm wrong, and in this context, I've even given conditions that would indicate I'm wrong.  Doncic is currently 2nd in the NBA in ESPN's PIE state.  He's 4th in PER.  Tied for 4th in WS and 2nd in VORP.

 

If he keeps doing what he's doing and stays that high, he'll be an serious candidate for MVP.  And I'll be wrong (and I'll happily admit it).  I don't think that's going to happen.

You can’t say what he is doing this season is “random luck.”  Did you ever play the game?  This guy through 13 games is averaging 30 ppg and almost a triple double.  Sure, the truly great players can have stretches with those sort of numbers and then come back down to earth a bit.  But to try and argue that a player who really isn’t that great would luck into that kind of run, with his team winning, is a slap in the face.  The Mavs were bad last season.  He is truly stepping his game up to a new level and of course Porzingis is a part of the turnaround.  Dončić is doing **** that only young LeBron has ever been able to accomplish.  It’s not luck, my man.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, -JB- said:

You can’t say what he is doing this season is “random luck.”  Did you ever play the game?  This guy through 13 games is averaging 30 ppg and almost a triple double.  Sure, the truly great players can have stretches with those sort of numbers and then come back down to earth a bit.  But to try and argue that a player who really isn’t that great would luck into that kind of run, with his team winning, is a slap in the face.  The Mavs were bad last season.  He is truly stepping his game up to a new level and of course Porzingis is a part of the turnaround.  Dončić is doing **** that only young LeBron has ever been able to accomplish.  It’s not luck, my man.

 

It's as if he would have thought that Giannis making a leap a few years ago and improving his game would be a stroke of luck, too.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, -JB- said:

You can’t say what he is doing this season is “random luck.”  Did you ever play the game?  This guy through 13 games is averaging 30 ppg and almost a triple double.  Sure, the truly great players can have stretches with those sort of numbers and then come back down to earth a bit.  But to try and argue that a player who really isn’t that great would luck into that kind of run, with his team winning, is a slap in the face.  The Mavs were bad last season.  He is truly stepping his game up to a new level and of course Porzingis is a part of the turnaround.  Dončić is doing **** that only young LeBron has ever been able to accomplish.  It’s not luck, my man.

 

Okay, in the context of his skill level he's getting lucky.  He's a very good player (in the conversation last year, I said I thought he'd have a good chance to win rookie of the year).

 

But even in the context of being very good players, people go through lucky (hot) and unlucky (cold) streaks.

 

My statement on luck wasn't to indicate that anybody could do what he's doing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

Okay, in the context of his skill level he's getting lucky.  He's a very good player (in the conversation last year, I said I thought he'd have a good chance to win rookie of the year).

 

But even in the context of being very good players, people go through lucky (hot) and unlucky (cold) streaks.

 

My statement on luck wasn't to indicate that anybody could do what he's doing.

Luck would be having an unbelievable shooting night and dropping 40 with a triple double once.  This guy is doing these things consistently.  Sometimes it’s not about what you said.  You keep going back to things you’ve said as if they hold any real weight.  Didn’t really take a huge leap of faith to predict a guy who was drafted in the top 5 could win ROY lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

 

It's as if he would have thought that Giannis making a leap a few years ago and improving his game would be a stroke of luck, too.

 

So you think since Giannis and Luka are both European their experiences playing basketball were similar before coming to the NBA?
 

😂

19 minutes ago, -JB- said:

Luck would be having an unbelievable shooting night and dropping 40 with a triple double once.  This guy is doing these things consistently.  Sometimes it’s not about what you said.  You keep going back to things you’ve said as if they hold any real weight.  Didn’t really take a huge leap of faith to predict a guy who was drafted in the top 5 could win ROY lol

 

I'll make you a bet.  I listed a bunch of advanced stats that try to take into account total performance.  He's currently at least tied for top 5 for all of them.

 

I'll bet at the end of the regular season he's not top 5 in any of them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

So you think since Giannis and Luka are both European their experiences playing basketball were similar before coming to the NBA?
 

😂

 

I'll make you a bet.  I listed a bunch of advanced stats that try to take into account total performance.  He's currently at least tied for top 5 for all of them.

 

I'll bet at the end of the regular season he's not top 5 in any of them.

Even if he’s not?  So what?  Once again not really going out on a limb saying a guy won’t maintain the ridiculous pace he’s been on.  With that being said, it ain’t luck bruh.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, -JB- said:

Even if he’s not?  So what?  Once again not really going out on a limb saying a guy won’t maintain the ridiculous pace he’s been on.  With that being said, it ain’t luck bruh.

 

It is luck (in the context of also being a very good basketball player).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Luka's game has improved and it's not just because he's hitting more of his shots.  Watch him play and you can see he's finding the shots he wants more consistently than he did last season.  He's challenging his defender off the dribble more confidently and his passing has improved because he's getting to his spots more easily. 

 

And he's no where near his prime. 

 

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

So you think since Giannis and Luka are both European their experiences playing basketball were similar before coming to the NBA?
 

😂

 

I'll make you a bet.  I listed a bunch of advanced stats that try to take into account total performance.  He's currently at least tied for top 5 for all of them.

 

I'll bet at the end of the regular season he's not top 5 in any of them.

 

Not really, just two guys that have made big jumps and figured out their games.  Took a little longer for Giannis but by year 3 he was a steady performer, 4th year he was an all star.  Doncic was great last year, big jump this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

It is luck (in the context of also being a very good basketball player).

He’s playing more minutes per game this season and taking more shots but at the same time he’s shooting better from the field @ 47%.  This isn’t some new wave ****.  This sort of increase in production is to be expected 🤷‍♂️

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Confidence comes with making shots.  It looks like you are getting to your spots when you are hot and things are going in for you.  Bad shots become good ones.  It also screws up the defense and defensive plans, which means defensive rotations gets messed up and you end up with open teammates.

 

Same bet as I mentioned above for anybody, and I'll even add on for anybody that thinks Luka has taken a Giannis like leap.  Giannis is another guy that is currently in the top 5 of all of the categories listed.  I'll bet Giannis lands in the top 5 of at least 4 of them.

 

If he doesn't or Luka lands in the top 5 one of them, I'll take the L.

 

Luka has not taken a Giannis like step with his game.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

Confidence comes with making shots.  It looks like you are getting to your spots when you are hot and things are going in for you.  Bad shots become good ones.  It also screws up the defense and defensive plans, which means defensive rotations gets messed up and you end up with open teammates.

 

Same bet as I mentioned above for anybody, and I'll even add on for anybody that thinks Luka has taken a Giannis like leap.  Giannis is another guy that is currently in the top 5 of all of the categories listed.  I'll bet Giannis lands in the top 5 of at least 4 of them.

 

If he doesn't or Luka lands in the top 5 one of them, I'll take the L.

 

Luka has not taken a Giannis like step with his game.

Giannis has been in the league for a handful of years now and is coming off an MVP season.  I don’t think anybody is saying that Dončić is better than Giannis all of a sudden.  He has just taken a more meteoric rise.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
30 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

Confidence comes with making shots.  It looks like you are getting to your spots when you are hot and things are going in for you.  Bad shots become good ones.  It also screws up the defense and defensive plans, which means defensive rotations gets messed up and you end up with open teammates.

 

I said he was getting to his spots because I’m seeing go to moves and counters. Luka is starting his drives with the same between the leg dribble that he uses to set up his step back three.  If they crowd him he drives to his right.  If given space he steps back to his left.  When he drives he seems to prefer his defender to stay in contact with him because it allows him to launch that weird rapid slow down sort of push shot he launches right at the rim.  If they race him to the rim, he stops at the elbow with his head up.  
 

Maybe I’m wrong, but those look like tendencies to me.  Stuff he practices and does intentionally which opposing assistant coaches should be including on the scouting reports.  
 

This isn’t to say he doesn’t improvise, everyone has to, but I think it’s clear that he’s hunting for specific shots and his ability to get them is fueling his increased efficiency.  Defenses will contrive to make these harder though, so we’ll see if he can keep it up.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Giannis had two seasons in a row where he started out playing at an MVP level before falling off majorly after the midway point prior to him putting it all together last season and keeping up his level of play for the entire season.  It's clear the reason was because he got ground down by the length of the season and didn't have his mature superstar player legs yet.  That is a natural progression for a budding superstar in their early 20s going to their mid to late 20s.  Predicting that Luka will follow that path this season is not going out on a limb.  But it's also not even close to proof that his level of play is a fluke and that he won't get better down the road.  The fact is he's capable of playing at an MVP level at 20 and by the time he hits his mid 20s he's going to be winning MVPs.

 

In general, predicting that 19 and 20 year old phenoms won't get better is a terrible bet.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Giannis had two seasons in a row where he started out playing at an MVP level before falling off majorly after the midway point prior to him putting it all together last season and keeping up his level of play for the entire season.  It's clear the reason was because he got ground down by the length of the season and didn't have his mature superstar player legs yet.  That is a natural progression for a budding superstar in their early 20s going to their mid to late 20s.  Predicting that Luka will follow that path this season is not going out on a limb.  But it's also not even close to proof that his level of play is a fluke and that he won't get better down the road.  The fact is he's capable of playing at an MVP level at 20 and by the time he hits his mid 20s he's going to be winning MVPs.

 

In general, predicting that 19 and 20 year old phenoms won't get better is a terrible bet.

 

1.  I didn't say he wouldn't get better. I said he wasn't going to get much better in the context of comparing him to other rookies.

 

2.  This is back to at least implying that Giannis' experience before the NBA was similar to Luka's, which isn't true.  My point is that Luka doesn't really compare to any other recent young player.

 

3.  It is just wrong.  In 2016-2017 his offensive rating by month is 108, 112, 129, 111, 116, 118, 106.

 

The 106 number is bad, but that's April and just 5 games, and it isn't that much worse than the 108 he started the year with (which is only 3 games).  I also wouldn't want to read too much to any of those numbers because at most it is 16 games and something like a west coast road trip could sway the numbers.  But there's 0 evidence there that he really started hot and cooled down.  The Feb and March numbers are both better than the Oct. and Nov. numbers.

 

2017-2018 looks like:

 

126, 111, 122, 126, 103, 118, 104.  The Feb and April numbers aren't very good, but the March number is fine.  And 111 isn't an MVP-like number.  Luka right now is 119.  Giannis last year averaged 121.

 

Taking into account Oct and Nov, Giannis has never started with what looked like MVP year before last year.

Edited by PeterMP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.