PFT: Mike Shanahan: No one in NFL history has played at RG3′s level

[Special K]

Enjoy your old fart quarterbacks now NY and Dallass. Their time is limited...and we'll have RG3 for a long time to come (God willing)

I seriously want to stomp Dallass and make playoffs tomorrow. But, when I step back to look at the big picture instead of thinking my life will either go on or end with the results of tomorrow's game, I smile thinking about the NFC East scene of the future

[Jumbo]

I use some stats also: IMO, football stats can be properly used to verify what you see on the field. For example, if I credit RG3 with above-average to excellent deep pass ability, I can verify that his deep passing stat reflects that while allowing for the quality grade of his receivers and his scheme to get receivers open deep. If there's a disparity between the deep completion percentage and my opinion, then I have to examine those other factors to decide whether my opinion is biased or the stat is deceptive for some reason.

This is not only a basic formula for how most (if not all) football stats should be used in critical analysis, but how much of available data in most any matter should be used. Confirmation bias is just one of so many common cognitive miscues when one is seeking to be as close to objectively accurate on a matter as possible. If one is seeking something else, however, that's fine. Many folk ((IME) are either too lazy to use, or simply lack, the awareness to know what they're seeking in most cases either way.

I agree with GoSkins general view on Peyton (as a truly exceptional individual talent). He also has benefited greatly from the schemes/support in his career. One reality does not undo the other. I think you're hard pressed to find anyone who has had truly great career success (not just statistically) at that position that doesn't involve a mix of both (logically enough).

Not to derail (and I say that with meaning ) but I don't go as far to the extreme in the "general" QB position views of OF as OF does (which I think can actually minimize the individual performance, pro and con, too often) but I'm much closer to his views than the over-emphasis most fans give the position and the accompanying underrating of the scheme/support factors.

[Chump Bailey]

RG3 is simply a phenom and it's downright scary to think what he could accomplish when his NFL career comes to an end. Now I know why Dan, Mike and Kyle went to the Bahamas to celebrate making the move to land him. Clearly, they knew what they were getting.

[Jumbo]

RG3 is simply a phenom and it's downright scary to think what he could accomplish when his NFL career comes to an end. Now I know why Dan, Mike and Kyle went to the Bahamas to celebrate making the move to land him. Clearly, they knew what they were getting.

I have felt the seem as OF about RG3's skillset from the beginning but kept wanting to pinch myself and not buy into it until it manifested in the pro game. I think it already has, even this early which so much yet to come. I have not seen anyone play like him at that position (both in current level and implied potential) and only ("desperately" is an understatement) hope he can stay healthy. If so, he will be the greatest QB to play the game in every way. Beyond that, he could well be the greatest football player ever, and rank as one of the all-time greatest athletes in any arena, ever. That's my call. I honestly (critically, not homeristically) see the ability there---the very real pot entail. Now it's a matter of seeing what happens with all the related factors, especially those beyond his control.

[Mr. Sinister]

I'm just glad he's on the team that I root for. i can't imagine how frustrating it would be to watch your team get abused, to the point (quarterback and scheme in general) where it looks like everyone else is frozen, and on roller skates. He is a nightmare.

[Chump Bailey]

I have felt the seem as OF about RG3's skillset from the beginning but kept wanting to pinch myself and not buy into it until it manifested in the pro game. I think it already has, even this early which so much yet to come. I have not seen anyone play like him at that position (both in current level and implied potential) and only ("desperately" is an understatement) hope he can stay healthy. If so, he will be the greatest QB to play the game in every way. Beyond that, he could well be the greatest football player ever, and rank as one of the all-time greatest athletes in any arena, ever. That's my call. I honestly (critically, not homeristically) see the ability there---the very real pot entail. Now it's a matter of seeing what happens with all the related factors, especially those beyond his control.

I am in total agreement with you Jumbo. He's the most exciting player I can ever recall watching. Bo Jackson is the only other player that even remotely comes close IMO. Each week I see jaw-dropping displays by him and am held in almost breathless anticipation of seeing what he will do next. Insane talent and ability - to say the sky's the limit with this kid would be a gross understatement.

[Oldfan]

What OF, do you consider to be part of Peyton's limited talent? The ONLY limit that I've ever noticed myself is a noticeable lack of mobility (which he's always had). Other than that I think he's possibly the best QB ever. Pinpoint accuracy and basically a mind of the best head coach while he's at the LOS before the snap. And unreal work ethic.

Peyton isn't a great passer. One-third of his passes wobble. The ability to throw a tight spiral is crucial to accuracy. It's a matter of physics. A wobbling pass will miss its target by up to five feet at 30 yards.

Peyton's lack of accuracy is masked by a scheme with the fewest number of pass plays in the NFL. If all NFL QBs spend X number of hours practicing, Peyton can spend far more on each pass in his small playbook. Most NFL teams have a playbook of 150 plays -- most of them passes. Peyton throws about 20.

Peyton throws 75% of the time from the shotgun which increases completion percentages.

Peyton isn't required to throw on the run. That helps his completion percentage.

[Jumbo]

Those are great counter-points, OF, to the argument that Peyton is a very exceptional individual talent at Q.

I'd have to check the frequency of wobbliness, since I have not noted it being that standout. Nor was I familiar with the other (specific) stats you used, though I knew he did most from the shotgun..

I am very used to seeing Peyton be a rather prominent part of so many, many, great pass plays.

[brandymac27]

Peyton's lack of accuracy is masked by a scheme with the fewest number of pass plays in the NFL. If all NFL QBs spend X number of hours practicing, Peyton can spend far more on each pass in his small playbook. Most NFL teams have a playbook of 150 plays -- most of them passes. Peyton throws about 20.

Is this an "overall" observation/stat? In other words, does this also include his time with the Colts, and if so, (not to derail) is Luck benefiting from the same limited playbook?

[doghouse4x4]

Peyton isn't a great passer. One-third of his passes wobble. The ability to throw a tight spiral is crucial to accuracy. It's a matter of physics. A wobbling pass will miss its target by up to five feet at 30 yards.

Peyton's lack of accuracy is masked by a scheme with the fewest number of pass plays in the NFL. If all NFL QBs spend X number of hours practicing, Peyton can spend far more on each pass in his small playbook. Most NFL teams have a playbook of 150 plays -- most of them passes. Peyton throws about 20.

Peyton throws 75% of the time from the shotgun which increases completion percentages.

Peyton isn't required to throw on the run. That helps his completion percentage.

By any measure, Peyton Manning is extremely accurate.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2007/adjusting-completion-percentage

[deejaydana]

I don't agree with that wobbly pass assessment on Manning. If it's happening it's a relatively recent development. Look at the years when Manning was in top form---probably 6 years back roughly--and you'll find him to be insanely accurate Old Fan. He could literally pinpoint his passes and put them where ONLY his WR could get them. Also, has ANY QB been as much of a nightmare at the line of scrimmage with his ability to read coverages and change plays, them change them again before the ball was snapped? Manning in that sense very literally made the headcoach's presence seem superfluous (and I don't find this to be an exaggeration).

[Oldfan]

Is this an "overall" observation/stat? In other words, does this also include his time with the Colts, and if so, (not to derail) is Luck benefiting from the same limited playbook?

Luck is not using the same playbook as far as I can tell. Andrew has a better skill set than Peyton, so an OC might give him more to do than sit back in the shotgun and fire.

Tom Moore was Peyton's offensive coordinator in Indianapolis. A cursory review of this article will give you at least a basic idea of the plan.

http://smartfootball.com/offense/peyton-manning-and-tom-moores-indianapolis-colts-offense

---------- Post added December-29th-2012 at 03:21 PM ----------

By any measure, Peyton Manning is extremely accurate.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2007/adjusting-completion-percentage

You can't measure a QB's accuracy by measuring QB + Scheme + Receivers

---------- Post added December-29th-2012 at 03:23 PM ----------

I don't agree with that wobbly pass assessment on Manning. If it's happening it's a relatively recent development. Look at the years when Manning was in top form---probably 6 years back roughly--and you'll find him to be insanely accurate Old Fan. He could literally pinpoint his passes and put them where ONLY his WR could get them.

We can't debate different views of the same evidence. We don't see the same thing.

Also, has ANY QB been as much of a nightmare at the line of scrimmage with his ability to read coverages and change plays, them change them again before the ball was snapped? Manning in that sense very literally made the headcoach's presence seem superfluous (and I don't find this to be an exaggeration).

That's built into Tom Moore's scheme. Peyton runs it well. But it isn't some mystical power that only Peyton has.

Steve Spurrier asked his QBs in college and the pros to do the same thing Peyton was asked to do.

[Joe_328]

I love the "invisible tax" the redskins will put on the nfl in the offseason.

Win or lose this next game....what free agent would not love to come to Washington and bask in the hotness of RG3?

[brandymac27]

Luck is not using the same playbook as far as I can tell. Andrew has a better skill set than Peyton, so an OC might give him more to do than sit back in the shotgun and fire.

Tom Moore was Peyton's offensive coordinator in Indianapolis. A cursory review of this article will give you at least a basic idea of the plan.

http://smartfootball.com/offense/peyton-manning-and-tom-moores-indianapolis-colts-offense

Thanks for the link. I'll definitely read it.

[deejaydana]

[/color]We can't debate different views of the same evidence.

We don't see the same thing.

I'll defer to many of your points/assertions OF as I think you bring a wealth of info to your posts. And you're more of a student of the game than I but yes, I'm not gonna buy any stance that tells me Peyton isn't accurate & that he serves up Billy Kilmer wounded duck passes. Agree to (respectfully) disagree.

[doghouse4x4]

You can't measure a QB's accuracy by measuring QB + Scheme + Receivers

---------- Post added December-29th-2012 at 03:23 PM ----------

We can't debate different views of the same evidence.

We don't see the same thing.

So you are basically saying that you can't back up anything you are saying with actual numbers? That would put your evidence squarely with that which you discount.

You are going to be hard pressed to find anyone agreeing with the assertion Manning is not a superlative talent.

[sempre_victrix]

It gives me hope of what this team can do if we get a good pass blocking O-line in place and at least one more WR like Garcon. If Fred Davis comes back at 100%, this will be a dangerous offense. Had Mara/Goodell not jacked with our salary cap, we'd be be awesome right now.

[Oldfan]

So you are basically saying that you can't back up anything you are saying with actual numbers? That would put your evidence squarely with that which you discount.

I'll agree with that. Your opinions backed with bogus numbers are about equal to mine with no number support.

You are going to be hard pressed to find anyone agreeing with the assertion Manning is not a superlative talent.

That's not a problem for me. It's a frequent event for people like me who don't jump onto bandwagons without thinking.

[doghouse4x4]

I'll agree with that. Your opinions backed with bogus numbers are about equal to mine with no number support.

Fair enough.

[KDawg]

Peyton has good accuracy and good arm strength, but I wouldn't put him at the top of either of those lists of all time, let alone the current league. Where Manning makes his money, and in my opinion makes him a candidate for greatest of all time is his intelligence and work ethic. It's immeasurable. I can't tell you numbers, there are none. But, he gets his teammates to put in the work and he puts in hours. He's literally seen every coverage many, many times. It's extremely difficult to trick him by sugaring a defense. That's why he's so good. From a physical skillset perspective, Manning is a good NFL quarterback. From a total perspective, he's one of the greatest of all time.

[doghouse4x4]

Peyton has good accuracy and good arm strength, but I wouldn't put him at the top of either of those lists of all time, let alone the current league. Where Manning makes his money, and in my opinion makes him a candidate for greatest of all time is his intelligence and work ethic. It's immeasurable. I can't tell you numbers, there are none. But, he gets his teammates to put in the work and he puts in hours. He's literally seen every coverage many, many times. It's extremely difficult to trick him by sugaring a defense. That's why he's so good. From a physical skillset perspective, Manning is a good NFL quarterback. From a total perspective, he's one of the greatest of all time.

I would say that's pretty.......

accurate! :peaceout:

[Oldfan]

Peyton has good accuracy and good arm strength, but I wouldn't put him at the top of either of those lists of all time, let alone the current league. Where Manning makes his money, and in my opinion makes him a candidate for greatest of all time is his intelligence and work ethic. It's immeasurable. I can't tell you numbers, there are none. But, he gets his teammates to put in the work and he puts in hours. He's literally seen every coverage many, many times. It's extremely difficult to trick him by sugaring a defense. That's why he's so good. From a physical skillset perspective, Manning is a good NFL quarterback. From a total perspective, he's one of the greatest of all time.

I see Peyton as "Archie's Revenge." Because he played for the hapless Saints, Archie Manning might well be the most underrated QB of all time while his son Peyton surely is the most overrated. So, all things considered, maybe the final result is fair.

I think Peyton deserves credit for putting in the work to come as close to achieving 100% of his potential as humanly possible. But the Colts organizational plan seemed designed better to make a QB look good than to win championships.

[GO HAMSKINS]

Your old man is a smart dude!

His dad was talking about Vince Young lmao!!

[KDawg]

I see Peyton as "Archie's Revenge." Because he played for the hapless Saints, Archie Manning might well be the most underrated QB of all time while his son Peyton surely is the most overrated. So, all things considered, maybe the final result is fair.

I think Peyton deserves credit for putting in the work to come as close to achieving 100% of his potential as humanly possible. But the Colts organizational plan seemed designed better to make a QB look good than to win championships.

Perhaps, but they managed to win one anyways. And if that is the case, Peyton deserves a lion's share of the credit. But as you and I both know, a quarterback doesn't win a championship on his own. Tom Moore and the rest of the team deserve credit as well. But I don't think you can say Peyton is "overrated".

I'll accept, without a question, the criticism of his total physical skillset being decent to good. There really is nothing from a physical perspective about Manning that really stands out. It's what you can't measure that makes him so good.

Furthermore, his current body of work with Denver (he's running the same system, essentially, with different verbiage. Sidebar: I heard a story somewhere, don't remember where, that Manning was calling plays in Indy's terminology and Tamme had to pull him aside and tell him, "dude, this is Denver!" ) supports that while his physical skillset is declining, as it always will with age, he's still crazy effective. He is a student of the game.

[brandymac27]

His dad was talking about Vince Young lmao!!

Ummm, I'm a "she", and he was referring to Steve

I swear, I'm gonna blow a freaking gasket! How many guys are named Brandy????? I'm gonna research this **** for myself. I've been on ES for over 5 years, and I still get called dude. I'm sorry. This isn't necessarily intended just for GO HAMSKINS, but dammit I'm a female. This **** is driving me crazy, my anxiety is bad because I'm nervous about the game, and I keep getting called a dude. Son of a *****, I need a drink.