Football Outsiders Redskins DVOA rankings through Week Four

[Oldfan]

While reading threads in the Stadium, I have noticed that the NFL rankings based on points or yardage are being used by posters to make their points when discussing the offense, defense and special teams. Those rankings can be very deceptive. I suggest that posters consider using the Football Outsiders rankings instead.

Their Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system breaks down every NFL play and compares a team's performance to a league baseline based on situation in order to determine value over average. The rankings are adjusted for strength of schedule beginning in the fourth week of the season.

The team ranking is based on a 3-3-1 ratio, offense, defense and special teams. So, the special teams ranking will not have a big impact on the team rank.

The team ranked 28th to close out the 2010 season. It improved to 21st last season. Currently the team is ranked #22.

Redskins rankings for the 2010 season:

Team: 28

Offense: 25

Defense: 26

ST: 25

Redskins rankings for the 2011 season:

Team: 21

Offense: 19

Defense: 14

ST: 21

Redskins rankings after Week Four of this season:

Team: 22

Offense: 8

Defense: 25

ST: 32

Compared to 2011, the offense has been upgraded but the gain has been offset by a downgrade on defense. The offense's upgrade can be explained by the performances of RG3 and Alfred Morris in the first four weeks. The defense's downgrade seems harder to explain.

So far, using this measure, the Skins are playing this season like a six-win team.

The ranking for all 32 teams can be found by clicking this link:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2012

[MartinC]

So a quick summary of the above would be offense good, defense bad, special teams terrible. Overall averages out to a still below average team - but that has found its QB and can build around him.

[Oldfan]

So a quick summary of the above would be offense good, defense bad, special teams terrible. Overall averages out to a still below average team - but that has found its QB and can build around him.

That sums it up nicely.

Your comment made me realize that Mike Shanahan has been here before -- the year he was fired in Denver. He had found young Jay Cutler to build around.

Here are the 2008 Denver DVOA rankings for comparison:

Team: 24

Offense: 1

Defense: 31

ST:31

Looks like Mike gets a do-over!

[Warhead36]

I think the Special Teams is skewed down heavily by two bad plays(the blocked punts). I'd figure as the season progresses, it'll go up. The D will probably improve too, but wouldn't shock me if the O went down a bit.

Right now we're basically an 8-8 team. Good offense, bad defense. Even our +\- is 0.

[Larry]

I've always been a fan of their ranking system, ever since I read a write-up they did, explaining their system, titled "Why Rock Cartwright is a better running back than DeShaun Foster".

(Y'all will never guess why I read their article.)

Their explanation was that their system breaks down every single play, and looks at "down and distance". And compares how the player/team does, in that down and distance, compared to the NFL average.

They pointed out that a lot of Rock Cartwright's carries came on situations like 3rd and 2. On 3rd and 2, the average NFL RB gets 2.2 yards. On 3rd and 2, Rock averaged 3.5 yards.

Whereas a lot of Foster's carries came after two incomplete passes, on 3rd and 10. The average NFL RB, on that down and distance, gets 8 yards, and Foster averaged 7.5.

Both Rock and Foster got 1 carry. Rock got 3.5 yards, Foster got 7.5. But Rock moved the chains, and Foster got off the field to make room for the punting team.

Yeah, when you're going to compare stats, it helps if you're comparing similar contexts.

[ADF]

In the NFL, you can win games with only two of the three phases playing well. If the offense continues to play well then we only need the defense or special teams to step up. It's hard to win with only one. Think how much easier the game against the Bucs would have been if the kicker made all of his kicks or if the defense didn't allow all those big plays. If only one of the two would have stepped up then the other wouldn't really have mattered as much.

[Rocky52Mc]

In the NFL, you can win games with only two of the three phases playing well. If the offense continues to play well then we only need the defense or special teams to step up. It's hard to win with only one. Think how much easier the game against the Bucs would have been if the kicker made all of his kicks or if the defense didn't allow all those big plays. If only one of the two would have stepped up then the other wouldn't really have mattered as much.

or if the offense nailed one of those potential field goal drives in for a TD and blew the game wide open? This is not new to the Redskins, it was bound to happen. You see this sudden change in our teams defense for one simple reason (WE'RE RUNNING UP THE SCORE). Do you know how easy it is to get a first down in this league if you simply pass the ball? It's all about passing the ball. Why practically every QB out there even the rookies, has had at least one 300+ yard game. It's not just the officials, because if you added pass interference to the passing totals, we'd be mind blown. This league is built to pass in the off-season, in TC, in practice every week, and it shows. The better your offense is, the easier it is for your defense to be bad. Want some stats to prove it?

2011 TOP 3 offenses:

1. New Orleans

2. New England

3. Green Bay

2011 WORST 3 defenses

32. Green Bay

31. New England

30. Tampa Bay

For reference, Tampa clocked in at 12th offensively, they just have a really terrible defense.

Now just to brush up on these stats one more time, in a different more clear light.

In 2011 the TOP passing teams were:

1. New Orleans

2. New England

3. Green Bay

4. Detroit

5. NY Giants

in 2011 the WORST teams defending the pass were:

32. Green Bay

31. New England

30. New Orleans

29. NY Giants

22. Detroit

Does anyone want to make the case that this is pure coincidence? Mike McCarthy, Bill B, Tom Coughlin, and Sean Payton, are they all just running dysfunctional units and have no idea what the hell is going on? The thing is they know exactly what is going on.

Passing yardage is a garbage stat these days, it's completely irrelevant. It's clear as ****ing day out here, if your offense can move the ball through the air, odds are the opposing team will target you just as aggressively and FIRE.

I'm sick and tired of all the talk of "You see New Englands receivers? You see New Orleans receivers? those guys got talent. No. Bull****. The entire NFL is talent. All the receivers are flushed in and out in those systems every freakin' year. And Shanahan has taken the exact same approach because he too, knows exactly what he's doing. It's why they could somehow pass the ball under Rex Grossman. That's why Jabar Gaffney is useless to us, that's why Chris Cooley is disposable, that's why Marques Colston can be injured every other week, that's why Randy Moss can be traded, and Gaffney can be cut by New England. And that's why Aldrick Robinson looks awesome.

It's a passing league, pure and simple, the Redskins are a passing team. They have been for 3 years. If you want RG3 to turn it up, expect the defense to let up a lot of yards.

Now as I've explained the worst passing defenses in 2011 were:

GB

NO

NE

and in total points given up they averaged out as 15th in the NFL. And that's a very important stat to this. Give up all the damn yards you want in the world. But hold them to 3, or force a turnover, or let them kill themselves.

Now tell me why the Patriots or the Giants should give a **** about being last in the league in passing yardage if they both ended up in the final game of the season?

[Oldfan]

...Passing yardage is a garbage stat these days, it's completely irrelevant...

I think it always has been a garbage stat because teams that are behind on the scoreboard usually lose... and teams that are behind on the scoreboard pass to catch up. Thus, teams that lose rack up a lot of passing yardage; and teams that win have a lot of passing yardage racked up against them.

You are correct that the passing game is more prevalent in today's NFL, but that changes nothing with respect to the values of offense versus defense. Preventing touchdowns will always be as important as scoring touchdowns. That doesn't change because of higher scoring games.

The best teams don't always win the super bowl, but the best team has the best chance to win the super bowl. And, when grading teams, their offenses and defenses are equal in value. A team with a grade A defense and a grade B offense is equal to a team with a grade A offense and a grade B defense.

[Bang]

Soo... this sort of renders last week's argument about the special teams rather moot.

Thanks, all this does is confirm what I already knew.

When I saw us at 32 after 4 weeks, i was completely..unsurprised.

Unfortunately, I don't think the passing yards against us is a result of people playing catch-up.

I think the defensive let down is largely due to injuries,, losing Rak and Carriker is showing specifically in the area of pass rush. Our pressure is not being generated, and it's forcing us to use dumb things like cover Zero which is getting us blasted for long gains. Our secondary not being healthy is another factor. That and we're very good so far at run stopping... so really, in a way offenses are just taking what we they can get, and it's the pass.

~Bang

[DC9]

That sums it up nicely.

Your comment made me realize that Mike Shanahan has been here before -- the year he was fired in Denver. He had found young Jay Cutler to build around.

Here are the 2008 Denver DVOA rankings for comparison:

Team: 24

Offense: 1

Defense: 31

ST:31

Looks like Mike gets a do-over!

I don't know oldfan. I don't think you can accurately depict the special teams based on stats or rankings like this.

[Bang]

I think Shanahan is doing a fine job.

We ca't expect all rankings to be top ten yet, We've rebuilt, and this is the year of the first real steps being taken by a lot of young players who will only improve with experience.

really,in looking at the roster and the amount of overhaul we've seen in the last 2 seasons... Shanny has definitely changed the way we do things around here.

For the better. the culture change is complete.. the off-field front-office style change is complete.

Now it's time for the players to grow and get better, and that's not an overnight process.

~Bang

[Assassin 21]

If I were Haslett I would try to prevent the deep play and work extremely hard in practice on redzone defense. People are going to move the ball on our secondary pretty much regardless. We just have to hold them to 3 when it matters and there is less field to cover.

[ArmchairRedskin]

Detroit gave up both a punt and kickoff TD in consecutive games. You can't tell me that's not the worst unit in the league.

[Oldfan]

Soo... this sort of renders last week's argument about the special teams rather moot.

Thanks, all this does is confirm what I already knew.

When I saw us at 32 after 4 weeks, i was completely..unsurprised.

Now, Amigo... don't you go running a victory lap because the special teams are bad. Your argument has been that they are bad because of Danny and not because he was given lousy personnel. This ranking tells us they are bad. It doesn't tell us why.

[Botched]

I feel like we're the 2008 Packers.

[Oldfan]

I don't know oldfan. I don't think you can accurately depict the special teams based on stats or rankings like this.

You quoted me, but I can't fit your remark with that quote. I'm not sure what you mean.

---------- Post added October-3rd-2012 at 08:55 AM ----------

If I were Haslett I would try to prevent the deep play and work extremely hard in practice on redzone defense. People are going to move the ball on our secondary pretty much regardless. We just have to hold them to 3 when it matters and there is less field to cover.

You are recommending bend-but-don't- break which will allow an opponent to play ball control on us and keep our offense off the field. I like that strategy only when we have a two score lead.

[hunterx]

So far, using this measure, the Skins are playing this season like a six-win team.

I agree with this. We play the AFC North and NFC South, this is a very tough schedule. I think 6 wins is very likely.

Right now we're basically an 8-8 team. Good offense, bad defense. Even our +\- is 0.

I just said 6 wins is very likely, and I will stick to it. I think we can win 8 or 9 if we get extremely lucky...but I don't think we are playing as an 8 or 9 win team right now. The offense is, but as we have seen, if the defense can't stop the other team then we lose. We play very good offeses this year, and I just don't see us winning that many games.

[Bang]

Now, Amigo... don't you go running a victory lap because the special teams are bad. Your argument has been that they are bad because of Danny and not because he was given lousy personnel. This ranking tells us they are bad. It doesn't tell us why.

Well, believe me, this is a lap I would never want to take.

And I should not hijack this thread into my Danny Smith soapbox. I do that a lot.

Lets just say the results are the same regardless of the personel. That in and of tself shows me a control test. Doesn't matter who comes here to be on our special teams... draft picks, low level bubble guys, veterans, free agents... doesn't matter. When they play on our special teams, they play poorly.

~Bang

[Oldfan]

Well, believe me, this is a lap I would never want to take.

And I should not hijack this thread into my Danny Smith soapbox. I do that a lot.

Lets just say the results are the same regardless of the personel. That in and of tself shows me a control test. Doesn't matter who comes here to be on our special teams... draft picks, low level bubble guys, veterans, free agents... doesn't matter. When they play on our special teams, they play poorly.

~Bang

You saw the effect that Devin Hester most likely had on Chicago's rankings; and I recall the Chargers special teams being highly ranked when Darren Sproles returned kicks and punts. Now, suppose Danny had been allowed to use Santana to handle punts and kicks -- can you see how his ranking could have been much better than those he registered with Rock Cartwright and Randle El?

[Bang]

You saw the effect that Devin Hester most likely had on Chicago's rankings; and I recall the Chargers special teams being highly ranked when Darren Sproles returned kicks and punts. Now, suppose Danny had been allowed to use Santana to handle punts and kicks -- can you see how his ranking could have been much better than those he registered with Rock Cartwright and Randle El?

This plays to the notion that danny has no control over who he can and can't use, who he has, and who he acquires.

I don't buy into that.

the main difference between Moss and Hester for purposes of such a comparison is that Hester came to the Bears to be a returner, whereas Moss came to us to be our #1 or 2 wide receiver.

He's too much to risk back there as opposed to Hester. The same could be said if the Redskins of the 80s had allowed Darrel Green to return punts in more than just desperate situations. He's too valuable in other realms of the game to risk... but he had a heck of a knack for popping a big one when we needed it.

The Bears had to convert Hester to WR to try and duplicate that explosiveness for the offense.. IMO, it has not worked.They had do a LOT of work to get Hester to even become an average wide receiver.. and now he's not much in their plans as a passing target. (MNF's TD excluded.)

besides.. Moss back there does not erase the multitudes of penalties that bring back returns, something Smth's units have been plagued by. (see the thread GHH put toether tabulating the special teams penalties.)

Hester being here would be much the same,, watching blocks in the back, holding calls.. ridiculously sloppy play bringing his returns back. (Believe it or not, Rock had a pretty decent avg per return,, but that was ALL he was going to get.. something like 26 yards.)

Special teams here have breakdowns all over the place... and this year is a fine example of what I mean.

this year we're actually doing well in terms of coverages and penalties.. only 5, but we see the breakdowns in other areas.. punts blocked, field goals missed. fumbles and muffs.

Last week vs Cincy was the best special teams game I've seen them play since James Thrash-day up in Detroit a few years ago.

and last week was nothing special. Just clean, good coverage, no major mistakes.

and when THAT is something to look forward to, the very fact that it is something remarkable.. that's a huge problem.

We know, you and I. We remember where the league got the idea that special teams needed to be important. And we've seen the great effect on the whole team when it is properly applied.

Danny doesn't measure up.

~Bang

[Oldfan]

This plays to the notion that danny has no control over who he can and can't use, who he has, and who he acquires.

"No control" is an absolute; and absolutes are rarely true. The question should be: How much control does Danny have? You seem to be aware that he couldn't just demand to use Santana and you understand why. But you seem to lay the fault that he had to make do with Rock Cartwright and ARE on him. The blame should go to the person who has the final say on personnel. That's Mike Shanahan and before him, Vinny.

I saw GHH's thread, but did not comment in it. I had the same objections to his evidence that some others did. 1) You can't say something is bad unless you compare it to others like it; 2) even if it is bad, you need logic or evidence to support the claim that it is bad because of the coaching.

Your core argument seems to be: ST has been consistently bad for sometime. Therefore it has to be the coaching.

For me, that conclusion doesn't follow from the premise because the other explanation: that ST has been consistently bad because the roster talent has been consistently bad has not been ruled out by evidence.

[skinsfan07]

or if the offense nailed one of those potential field goal drives in for a TD and blew the game wide open? This is not new to the Redskins, it was bound to happen. You see this sudden change in our teams defense for one simple reason (WE'RE RUNNING UP THE SCORE).

2011 TOP 3 offenses:

1. New Orleans

2. New England

3. Green Bay

2011 WORST 3 defenses

32. Green Bay

31. New England

30. Tampa Bay

Now just to brush up on these stats one more time, in a different more clear light.

In 2011 the TOP passing teams were:

1. New Orleans

2. New England

3. Green Bay

4. Detroit

5. NY Giants

in 2011 the WORST teams defending the pass were:

32. Green Bay

31. New England

30. New Orleans

29. NY Giants

22. Detroit

This is a great freakin post. Very well said. Like you said, if we can stop teams from scoring, who cares how many yards we give up! Just keep teams out of the endzone.

[Oldfan]

... if we can stop teams from scoring, who cares how many yards we give up! Just keep teams out of the endzone.

So, are you advocating a Greg Blache bend-but-don't-break defense then? Bear in mind that such a strategy would make it easier for opponents to play ball control and keep our offense off the field.

[Riggo-toni]

Now, Amigo... don't you go running a victory lap because the special teams are bad. Your argument has been that they are bad because of Danny and not because he was given lousy personnel. This ranking tells us they are bad. It doesn't tell us why.

So true, I mean, look at the Texans' defense and how terrible it was for so long. They tried fixing it by firing their defensive coordinator and replacing him with Wade Phillips. How delusional they must have been to think he could turn that ship around! Oh wait......

[Oldfan]

So true, I mean, look at the Texans' defense and how terrible it was for so long. They tried fixing it by firing their defensive coordinator and replacing him with Wade Phillips. How delusional they must have been to think he could turn that ship around! Oh wait......

Oh wait... another cherry-picked piece of evidence.

You missed the part where you supply evidence that our special teams problem is identical to Houston's problem. You can't assume the truth of what you need to prove.