Shanahan's decision to go for it on 4th and 16

[cphil006]

I was screaming and tweeting the whole game to double cover Amendola. We let him run free the whole time. Mistakes all the way around on D that's for sure.

How many times did we see a LB chasing him? Where's a nickel or dime DB?

[Larry Brown #43]

Still not as dumb as icing a kicker at the end of the first half. When that happened it was 100% that we were gonna lose by 3 points.

I'm a huge Shanny supporter, but that was a killer. I absolutely hate the whole icing the kicker game. I'm sure it backfires at least as often as it works. The Morgan incident kind of overshadowed that play, Morgan is all everyone's talking about.

[HAILSKINSNYC]

I think Shanny tried to take the heat off Haslett, Danny Smith & Josh Morgan by kicking a FG that had no chance of being good. His explanation of why he went for it sounded like the McNabb cardiovascular excuse.

I really hope this is what Shanny was doing, because if not, it just shows how awful this coaching staff is...make no mistake, we have a subpar coaching staff.

[Gibbit]

I think Shanny gave up after that penalty. Protecting his rookie from feeling the loss as his fault

[Hitman21ST]

it just shows how awful this coaching staff is...make no mistake, we have a subpar coaching staff.

We have sub-par coaches at two spots: DC and STC. We have a Hall of Famer (who can still coach) as a Head Coach, one of the best and brightest OC's in the game, very good secondary and LB coach, and good RB, WR, and OL coach.

[SkinsFanRicky]

After the 59 yarder against the 49ers last year, Gano may have been better in that situation.

[Mursilis]

I've been searching the web for stats on the probability of converting 4 & 16, and I can't find anything. www.advancednflstats.com does have a chart, however, showing that the odds of converting 4 & 14 are just over 20%, and 4 & 15 are just under 20%, so I'm going to assume a relatively linear progression here and put the odds of converting at 15% or so. As far as Cundiff's kick, since he's been kicking ~10 years and has never hit beyond 55 yards, his odds of hitting a 62 yarder are ~1%, and that's being very, very generous. So basically, Shanny choose the >1% over the 15% chance. It was a bad, bad call.

EDIT: Just read Rich Tandler's blog, and he said the odds of converting 4 & 16 were 15%, so there's agreement on that. He also gives Cundiff a (very generous, IMHO) chance of making the 62y FG at 5%, but regardless, it was still a very bad call.

---------- Post added September-17th-2012 at 07:39 PM ----------

We have sub-par coaches at two spots: DC and STC. We have a Hall of Famer (who can still coach) as a Head Coach, one of the best and brightest OC's in the game, very good secondary and LB coach, and good RB, WR, and OL coach.

HOF coach? Maybe. But I'd like to see him win more that 1 single playoff game with a QB who isn't a HOFer first. To me, Shanny is still slightly overrated.

[Hitman21ST]

HOF coach? Maybe. But I'd like to see him win more that 1 single playoff game with a QB who isn't a HOFer first. To me, Shanny is still slightly overrated.

Is Belichick a HOFer?

[Mursilis]

Is Belichick a HOFer?

Maybe. I'd really have to look at the coaches who are in there already, and see how they all compare. A huge part of why Gibbs got in fairly easily is because of his success with different personnel, including QBs - 3 SB wins with 3 different QBs. Neither Belichek nor Shanahan have done that yet.

[Hitman21ST]

Maybe. I'd really have to look at the coaches who are in there already, and see how they all compare. A huge part of why Gibbs got in fairly easily is because of his success with different personnel, including QBs - 3 SB wins with 3 different QBs. Neither Belichek nor Shanahan have done that yet.

For what it's worth, Walsh didn't do much of anything without Montana or Young (both HOFers).

[Laron Burgundy]

You put the ball in your best players hands in that situation, not sure why that's even up for debate.

I'd rather go down with the best player on our team having a go at it, than trust a player that's demonstrated with consistency that he can't be counted on to deliver on distances beyond 50 yards.

Major gaffe imho.

I don't disagree with this sentiment, I don't think anyone here does, but does Shanahan agree? He had some logic in attempting that 62 yarder, and I'm pretty sure he knew it was a borderline impossibility.

[SkinsFTW]

As soon as I saw the down and distance I thought of this play below (I mistakenly remembered the Eagles needed 16 yards which makes Shanahan's decision seen even worse) The thing is Cundiff had 0 chance of making a 62 yarder NONE. As soon as they cut Gano for him I figured they had given up attempting kicks over 50 yards. Gano is very accurate over 50 while Cundiff has made 1 50+ yard kick in the past 6 NFL seasons from 2006-2011. I think his career long is 51 too. Just the fact that I know this and the "Genius" Head Coach, ST Coach, or ANYBODY there, is just sad. It's sad that 2 weeks ago I actually looked those stat up after they replaced Gano with Cundiff but apparently nobody on the team even considered that numbers might matter.

Oh yeah, here's the play.

Eagles 4th and 26 Play:

" The Eagles, faced with a fourth down and 26 yards, needed to convert for a first down, with only 1:12 remaining and no timeouts available.

On fourth down, the play (74 Double Go) called for a 25-yard slant route for wide receiver Freddie Mitchell. McNabb threw a perfect strike to Mitchell deep into the Packers' secondary. The Packers' coverage, a Cover 2 package, broke down. Linebacker Nick Barnett, who was responsible for shallow coverage of Mitchell, decided to bite on the tight end. Inexplicably, Darren Sharper, who was partially responsible for deep coverage of Mitchell, played past the first down marker positioning himself for an interception rather than preventing any catch in front of the marker. The only player that was close to making a play, Packers' safety Bhawoh Jue, was playing the sidelines as is customary in Cover 2 defense and was too late to prevent a catch or first down. Mitchell completed a leaping reception and was brought down at the Packers 46, giving the Eagles a first down.[1]

The play set up David Akers' 37-yard field goal attempt after McNabb ran for another first down. The field goal was good, and the game went into overtime, when Eagles safety Brian Dawkins was able to intercept an errant Brett Favre pass and return it 35 yards, setting up another Akers field goal try. The 31-yard kick was good, giving the Eagles a dramatic 20–17 victory in sudden death overtime. The play helped send the Eagles to their third straight NFC Championship Game, which they lost."

I don't know about any of you but I'd like to give RG3 a chance to start at least ATTEMPTING plays like that one.

Is the team really selling a so called "RG3 Cape" well they may as well burn them since they won't allow him to put one on.

[redskins55]

I don't even blame Morgan for the loss. I blame Shanahan!! Penalties are part of the game but you still have to put your players in position to make a play!

We've got the QB who threw the Game Winning 34yd TD pass to defeat the top ranked Oklahoma Sooners and our HC says the odds were better to kick the second longest FG in NFL history with Billy Kundiff?????? :doh:

Really Shanahan??? It's 4th &16 not 4th & 40!!

---------- Post added September-18th-2012 at 02:57 AM ----------

I don't disagree with this sentiment, I don't think anyone here does, but does Shanahan agree? He had some logic in attempting that 62 yarder, and I'm pretty sure he knew it was a borderline impossibility.

I'm sorry to get on your comment, but I get so sick and tiered of fans making excuses for this coach and his bone headed decisions! There was no "master plan".. no "secret genius"... no "unknown variable". The man said he figured Kundiff could hit the kick because he had long kickoffs! He said it himself!! This makes absolutely no sense!! He is just a very bad coach when the games are close!

[MarkRascadizzle]

I think we're all forgetting what really matters here. Aldrick Robinson missed the long ball that would've sealed the game.

In all seriousness though, Danny Smith needs to go. How many of his special teams units have actually been successful? I certainly can't think of any. You can see Smith with a hand on Shanny's shoulder before they decided try the field goal. He was likely trying to make Shanahan believe that Cundiff could make the 62 harder. I'd say they MAYBE had a 10 percent chance of making that field goal. I'd say they had a solid 30-40 percent chance of making the 4th and 16 if they went for it, and that's a very low estimation. We all know how RG responds to pressure.

[Laron Burgundy]

I'm sorry to get on your comment, but I get so sick and tiered of fans making excuses for this coach and his bone headed decisions! There was no "master plan".. no "secret genius"... no "unknown variable". The man said he figured Kundiff could hit the kick because he had long kickoffs! He said it himself!! This makes absolutely no sense!! He is just a very bad coach when the games are close!

Coaches lie to media all the time though, it's practically part of their job requirement. Not at all making an excuse for him or calling it a genius call by any means, but I think at the same time it's foolish to think Shanahan really believed Cundiff could get a 62 yarder. There was some ulterior motive. Maybe not a smart one, but there was one.

[Mursilis]

Coaches lie to media all the time though, it's practically part of their job requirement. Not at all making an excuse for him or calling it a genius call by any means, but I think at the same time it's foolish to think Shanahan really believed Cundiff could get a 62 yarder. There was some ulterior motive. Maybe not a smart one, but there was one.

I simply can't imagine a motive which involves deliberately having your team lose the game. It defies all logic. As for this "protecting Griffin's confidence" excuse people are offering, I think the call actually hurt Griffin's confidence, as it showed a lack of trust in RG3 to get 16 yards (something he'd already done a few times in that SAME GAME), as compared to Cundiff hitting a 62y FG, something which had NEVER happened! Shanahan's bloated ego strikes again.

[s0crates]

Not sure this is so obviously a bad decision. The odds of making that kick are about as good as the odds of converting a 4th and 16.

I would have probably gone for it only because I don't think Cundiff has the leg, but I don't see the decision to kick as an obvious blunder either. After Morgan's brain-lock, we were in all likelihood screwed either way.

[Murphs56]

I didn't like the decision at all. There's WAYYYYYY more things that can happen on a 4th and 16 than a 62 yard field goal. Forget actually converting the 4th and 16, you can easily get a penalty. Offsides, defensive holding and of course, the wonderful pass interference. With an Arm like Griffin, there were certainly those possibilities and the fact his rocket arm could actually convert it. A 62 yard field goal man. That's so damn rare

[MartinC]

After Morgan's brain-lock, we were in all likelihood screwed either way.

This.

If you want to look for reasons we lost look at the defensive game planning, look at why we had another blocked punt, look at Josh Morgan blowing it big time, look at Robinson dropping what would have been at least huge gain and probably a TD pass heck look at the refs. There are lots of reasons we lost but the choice between going for it on 4th and 16 or attempting a 62 yard FG are not one of them IMO.

[Murphs56]

I really hated hearing Santana Moss basically backing up Josh Morgan's actions on the field.

I'll be glad when him and his attitude are gone from the team.

He'll be one of the 90 greatest Redskins ever, so he'll be back.

[s0crates]

He'll be one of the 90 greatest Redskins ever, so he'll be back.

As he well should be, lest we forget he more or less single-handedly got the Dallas monkey off our back in 2005, on his way to setting a franchise record for receiving yards. He is pretty high in the teams record books on a team that has seen some great WRs over the years.

Moss is in the twilight of his career, sure, and he was never the most eloquent guy, but I just cannot imagine why anybody would be jumping on his case. Morgan made the mistake, and believe me I fault him for it, but I cannot fault one of his teammates for sticking up for him.

[Murphs56]

As he well should be, lest we forget he more or less single-handedly got the Dallas monkey off our back in 2005, on his way to setting a franchise record for receiving yards. He is pretty high in the teams record books on a team that has seen some great WRs over the years.

Moss is in the twilight of his career, sure, and he was never the most eloquent guy, but I just cannot imagine why anybody would be jumping on his case. Morgan made the mistake, and believe me I fault him for it, but I cannot fault one of his teammates for sticking up for him.

Exactly. He's your teammate. If your teammate isn't going to stick up for you, who will? And Moss is most def a lock. Moss, Cooley and Fletcher is what I have so far for the 90

[joeknows]

Worst decision ever ... I knew the game was over before the kick

[Mursilis]

Not sure this is so obviously a bad decision. The odds of making that kick are about as good as the odds of converting a 4th and 16.

No, the odds are far different. Read the thread.

[GhostRider]

Honestly it was a no-brainer to go for it on 4th and 16. Hell, from what I've seen of Griffin I would not have been surprised at all if he made it. He has ice in his veins. I had 0% confidence that kick had a chance of making it.