Shanahan's decision to go for it on 4th and 16

[LetThePointsSoar]

Look, I am as confused as anyone else is with the decision, but one factor I don't see being discussed here is that Shanny DID choose to go for it, and only because the idiotic refs couldn't control the game, was forced to show his hand by running half the play before they stopped play for a STL timeout. Lot of "ifs" and "buts" in this game, but here's to hoping we learn from it and can get to 2-1 on Sunday.

Hail.

[s0crates]

No, the odds are far different. Read the thread.

I don't think "far different" is the way to characterize the odds. The odds certainly sucked either way, but I don't think it was an obvious decision.

A 60 yard field goal is not an impossible feat. Not even close. While it is true that it has only been done by 10 players in NFL history, the number of kickers to accomplish the feat is actually closer to 100 if you count high school and college. I'd post the list but it is too long, so you will just have to go to this link if you need verification of that fact: http://www.luckyshow.org/football/field%20goals%20of%2060%20yards%20or%20more.htm

NFL kickers are very good, and I would bet most of them can make a 60 yard kick. Its hard to say what the percentage would be because it is so rarely attempted. We do know that NFL kickers routinely make 50+ yard kicks with room to spare (64% league wide on 50+ yard attempts last year). For more try this link: http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/features/2012/nfl_2012/week_1/david_akers_63_yards_why_is_the_nfl_discouraging_long_field_goals_.html

So the suggeston that the odds of making that kick were impossibly slim is simply false.

Now maybe you could argue that Cundiff simply doesn't have the leg, but the way he boots kickoffs I don't think that is the case. His career accuracy beyond 50 yards is low though, so there is some concern there, but he kicked a 56 or 57 yarder before so I think he could do it. Maybe it is only a 10-15% chance that he makes it, sure.

However, the NFL rate of converting 4th and 15 is probably right around 10-15% too, and that is my point.

We were basically screwed either way.

[Mursilis]

I don't think "far different" is the way to characterize the odds. The odds certainly sucked either way, but I don't think it was an obvious decision.

A 60 yard field goal is not an impossible feat. Not even close. While it is true that it has only been done by 10 players in NFL history, the number of kickers to accomplish the feat is actually closer to 100 if you count high school and college. I'd post the list but it is too long, so you will just have to go to this link if you need verification of that fact: http://www.luckyshow.org/football/field%20goals%20of%2060%20yards%20or%20more.htm

NFL kickers are very good, and I would bet most of them can make a 60 yard kick. Its hard to say what the percentage would be because it is so rarely attempted. We do know that NFL kickers routinely make 50+ yard kicks with room to spare (64% league wide on 50+ yard attempts last year). For more try this link: http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/features/2012/nfl_2012/week_1/david_akers_63_yards_why_is_the_nfl_discouraging_long_field_goals_.html

So the suggeston that the odds of making that kick were impossibly slim is simply false.

Now maybe you could argue that Cundiff simply doesn't have the leg, but the way he boots kickoffs I don't think that is the case. His career accuracy beyond 50 yards is low though, so there is some concern there, but he kicked a 56 or 57 yarder before so I think he could do it. Maybe it is only a 10-15% chance that he makes it, sure.

However, the NFL rate of converting 4th and 15 is probably right around 10-15% too, and that is my point. We were basically screwed either way.

I agree that with certain NFL kickers, it might be a chance worth taking. Janikowski probably had a decent shot at it, but he's a Raider, not a Redskin. Cundiff has NEVER hit from that distance, and his longest is well short of 60 yards (I've read his longest reported as between 51 and 56, so I'm not sure what the correct number is, but it's less than 60). Plus, he's been in the league long enough that any coach should know the limits of his range by now. As for the whole "his kickoffs go that far" argument, a kicker gets a huge run-up for a kick-off, so it's a completely different kick. Essentially, that argument is borderline irrelevant.

As people have said before, it came down to choosing a low-percentage play (gaining 16 yards, something Griffin had already done in that same game) or a no-percentage play (the FG try), and Shanahan chose the 0% chance.

[s0crates]

I agree that with certain NFL kickers, it might be a chance worth taking. Janikowski probably had a decent shot at it, but he's a Raider, not a Redskin. Cundiff has NEVER hit from that distance, and his longest is well short of 60 yards (I've read his longest reported as between 51 and 56, so I'm not sure what the correct number is, but it's less than 60). Plus, he's been in the league long enough that any coach should know the limits of his range by now. As for the whole "his kickoffs go that far" argument, a kicker gets a huge run-up for a kick-off, so it's a completely different kick. Essentially, that argument is borderline irrelevant.

As people have said before, it came down to choosing a low-percentage play (gaining 16 yards, something Griffin had already done in that same game) or a no-percentage play (the FG try), and Shanahan chose the 0% chance.

You forced me to do a little digging to find out his career long, and it was a 56 yarder back in 2005.

In the course of finding out that stat, I found something even worse for your argument: It is positively FALSE that Cundiff has NEVER hit a field goal from that distance. In college Cundiff made a PFL (Pioneer Football League) record 62-yard field goal for Drake University . Given this revelation, I think it is safe to say that the odds of him making another are something better than the 0% you claim they are.

Again, I'm not saying the odds are good, I'm just that they are roughly as good as converting on 4th and 16.

I know you will doubt the fact he has made a kick from that distance, so here's the requisite link to prove it: http://news.drake.edu/2011/02/08/cundiff-afcs-top-kicker-plays-the-pro-bowl/. Or you could look up the game it actually happened in: Drake (W 52-12) v San Diego, 9/30/2000. Once you confirm the fact that Cundiff has made a 62 yard field goal before, we can hopefully put this issue to rest.

[terryb101]

4th and 16 is not a miracle play with RGIII under center.

The kick call was baffling, though Cundiff does have the leg to boot it. Still, I would have rolled the dice with my stud QB.

and we would have had the same result, a loss..

[RandyHolt]

I think if we went for it on 4 and 16 and failed, I would wager that far less people would be bashing Shanny, clamoring that we should have kicked a 62 yd FG instead. Saying he did it to not put pressure on Cundiff and make him lose confidence etc.

Regardless of the odds, when in doubt, put the ball into your best players hands.

Factoring two blocked punts already this year, and 6 blocked FG's last year, and knowing a low trajectory would be near mandatory for Cundiff (who we all know is not a long distance kicker at this point), our 62 yd FG success rate has to be lower than league averages would state.

[Mursilis]

You forced me to do a little digging to find out his career long, and it was a 56 yarder back in 2005.

In the course of finding out that stat, I found something even worse for your argument: It is positively FALSE that Cundiff has NEVER hit a field goal from that distance. In college Cundiff made a PFL (Pioneer Football League) record 62-yard field goal for Drake University . Given this revelation, I think it is safe to say that the odds of him making another are something better than the 0% you claim they are.

Again, I'm not saying the odds are good, I'm just that they are roughly as good as converting on 4th and 16.

I know you will doubt the fact he has made a kick from that distance, so here's the requisite link to prove it: http://news.drake.edu/2011/02/08/cundiff-afcs-top-kicker-plays-the-pro-bowl/. Or you could look up the game it actually happened in: Drake (W 52-12) v San Diego, 9/30/2000. Once you confirm the fact that Cundiff has made a 62 yard field goal before, we can hopefully put this issue to rest.

Really, how reasonable is it to think he's still the kicker he was 12 years ago? Or even 7 years ago, when he hit his 56 yarder? His best in the last 5 years has been 51 yards, with 10 misses at 50+. I don't know of many kickers have had developed longer range as they age. The odds for converting 4 & 16 are still far better.

[rdsknfan]

4th and 16 is not a miracle play with RGIII under center.

The kick call was baffling, though Cundiff does have the leg to boot it. Still, I would have rolled the dice with my stud QB.

Yes, I would of as well. I think you would have a higher percentage of completion than a 62 yard field goal. It may not be much higher, but we will never know.

[hunterx]

If you were Coach...would you rather have the results of a missed field goal fall on a veteran kicker,Cunduff..... or a missed 16 yard pass fall on your rookie QB sholders?

I would hope the coach is calling plays to win the game, and not worry about if his kicker or QB would be more upset about them missing a kick...or throwing an incompletion. Not to mention that your rookie QB already has the weight of the world on his shoulders with all the picks you traded to start him week 1.

The Shanahans need to take off the gloves and stop babying this kid. They spent their life savings on a Lamborghini and insist on driving 8 miles over the speed limit.

We agree that people here are a little wacky to suggest that the decision was partly to protect RG3's emotions had he thrown an incompletion, I don't think that the coaches are babying him at all. If they were, they wouldn't have coached him to run 10+ times, and the majority in the middle of the field. I say "coached" him to run it, because many of those runs were broken down plays or options, which he could have just gained 1-2 yards and ran out of bounds. I think they are letting him play his game, and I enjoy watching it.

I think kneeling on the ball is equivalent to allowing Cundiff the opportunity to kick a 62-yard field goal....

When we first lined up with RG3 on 4th and 16, I was excited. But after the Rams timeout, and the kicking team came onto the field, all that hope just left my body. I felt deflated. I was convinced we lost. Sad.

Just for fun...if we were ahead by 3 points, we wouldn't have tried a 62 yard field goal, or even go for it on 4th and 16. We would have done the safe thing, and punted. UhOh.

We would have punted to protect the lead and not given the ball to the Rams on the 48 yardline, from the missed 62 yard field goal. These are completely different scenarios, not sure what point you are trying to prove.

Last night I was defending Shanahan's decision. My point wasn't so much that I liked that call, but that Shanahan had two horrible options and I don't think either decision ends well for us. Honestly, when you're deciding between a 62-yard FG and 4th and 16, you're going to end up on the short end of the stick about 99 times out of 100.

Thinking about it on and off today, I think I'm coming around that the slightly better option would have been to roll the dice and go for it. I still don't think we'd have converted and believe there would be just as many second-guessers this morning. I can already hear it..."why wouldn't you line up and give your team a chance for the tie instead of the desperate 4th down try??"

If he went for it with RG3 and failed, I don't think there would be as many second guessers contemplating why we didn't kick it. It seems most people here are aware that Cundiff just isn't the kicker that very few kickers are in the history of the NFL. The second guessers would probably be more critical of other things that went wrong in the game, oh and of course that Morgan penalty. I don't think many would be calling for RG3 or Shanahan's head if it was an incomplete pass, because at least we tried.

I believe I heard on the ride home this evening that Shanahan said he would have gone for it on 4th and 1 if Morgan hadn't committed the penalty...now THAT would have been ballsy!

Weird. So he wouldn't trust his kicker to tie the game with a 47 yard field goal, but he would trust him more than his offense with a 62 yard kick? I guess the philosophy changes too, but I just don't see it. If the philosophy was to win the game and go for it on 4th and 1 from the 30 yardline, then he should have done the same thing at 4th and 16. It seems hypocritical.

A lot of kickers have been trying to hit deep field goals. Akers did one. And the Ravens rookie tried too.

I think you later agree that the Redskins should have gone for it. I wouldn't say "a lot" of kickers have been trying to hit deep field goals. I wouldn't even say half the teams/kickers in the league would have tried kicking it from there unless they were in Denver. I don't see Cundif in the top 50% of the league for field goal distance. You only named two, but I can only think of maybe 8 kickers with a *trusting* leg at that distance in that specific scenario of the game which would justify the decision.

Just for ****s, Graham Gano was 4/6 at 50+ last year while Cundiff was 1/6.

I think Shanny tried to take the heat off Haslett, Danny Smith & Josh Morgan by kicking a FG that had no chance of being good. His explanation of why he went for it sounded like the McNabb cardiovascular excuse.

I really hope this is what Shanny was doing, because if not, it just shows how awful this coaching staff is...make no mistake, we have a subpar coaching staff.

I do not hope that this is why he did it, otherwise he sacrificed making a decision with better odds to make sure his D-Coordinator, Special Teams coach and WR didn't get too scarred by the media. You don't call games to lose them, he should be immediately terminated if he does that. I don't think he does that, but by your way of thinking he opted for the play that succeeds less than 5% of the time with Cundiff, rather than a 15% success rate on 4th and 16---which could arguably be higher with a quick and mobile QB in RG3.

I think Shanny gave up after that penalty. Protecting his rookie from feeling the loss as his fault

Again, these claims that he is protecting anyone can't possibly be true, right? The coach should be trying to make calls to win games and not protect someone's possible hurt feelings. If anything, RG3 would have grown from the 4th and 16, being put in to experience that at the NFL level. We know he experienced plenty of those with Baylor last year.

EDIT: Just read Rich Tandler's blog, and he said the odds of converting 4 & 16 were 15%, so there's agreement on that. He also gives Cundiff a (very generous, IMHO) chance of making the 62y FG at 5%, but regardless, it was still a very bad call.

The 62yd field goal odds at 5% are much lower if I am the one kicking. Considering Cundiffs history of 50+ yard attempts, his odds are probably closer to 1% or 2%. At an arbitrary 15%, then considering that RG3 is a proven playmaker (grant it, mostly in college), I would tick that up a few more and say it's closer to 20%. But let's also not forget that maybe they catch and get tacked at 13 yards, but there's a facemask. Maybe something else goes wrong for the Rams and those odds are inching closer to 22-23%.

Not sure this is so obviously a bad decision. The odds of making that kick are about as good as the odds of converting a 4th and 16.

I would have probably gone for it only because I don't think Cundiff has the leg, but I don't see the decision to kick as an obvious blunder either. After Morgan's brain-lock, we were in all likelihood screwed either way.

Yes after Morgan's blunder, we had a much lower chance to tie or win the game, but there was still a chance. And to spare from driving the nail further, read above to see why going for it is a smarter decision.

Look, I am as confused as anyone else is with the decision, but one factor I don't see being discussed here is that Shanny DID choose to go for it, and only because the idiotic refs couldn't control the game, was forced to show his hand by running half the play before they stopped play for a STL timeout. Lot of "ifs" and "buts" in this game, but here's to hoping we learn from it and can get to 2-1 on Sunday.

Hail.

I don't remember half the play being run, thought it was just a second or so into the snap, but they could have lined up with something else. In this offense, they probably have a plethora of 12-18 yard passing plays.

---------- Post added September-18th-2012 at 10:35 AM ----------

Yes, I would of as well. I think you would have a higher percentage of completion than a 62 yard field goal. It may not be much higher, but we will never know.

It was recently stated that there's a 5% chance of making a 62 yard fieldgoal, and 15% chance of converting 4th and 16. Don't look at those and simply come to a conclusion though. Cundiff hasn't proven he has much of a leg for 50+ yard field goals these days, the majority of his misses are short. The 15% chance of conversion I believe is a tad higher because of many more variables that could go your way.

---------- Post added September-18th-2012 at 10:36 AM ----------

Yes, I would of as well. I think you would have a higher percentage of completion than a 62 yard field goal. It may not be much higher, but we will never know.

It was recently stated that there's a 5% chance of making a 62 yard fieldgoal, and 15% chance of converting 4th and 16. Don't look at those and simply come to a conclusion though. Cundiff hasn't proven he has much of a leg for 50+ yard field goals these days, the majority of his misses are short. The 15% chance of conversion I believe is a tad higher because of many more variables that could go your way.

[Saqs]

Looking at all of the the facts, the FG was the wrong call. I think Shanny went with his gut and didnt really think it through. That said, **** happens. In Shanny I still trust.

[SkinsCrushCowboys]

Should have been a 47 yarder after Morgans penalty, Long should have been flagged for taunting......then the decision is easy...kick the ball. Outside of 60, even in a dome, with Cundiff does not seem like a good choice.

[DaSkinzBaby]

So as a head coach with so much smarts and football intelligence you try to kick a 63 yard field goal with a kicker who has largely missed what his last 8 of10 long range field goals? With a special teams unit that has gotten punts blocked in back to back weeks, as well as a special teams that had how many blocked field goal attempts last year? Let's also add in the kicker that has a leg to make that, Gano was cut?? Let's add into it that you have a prototypical QB with 4.35 speed and you aren't smart enough to send all players deep and have him run? RG3 couldn't have gotten 16 yards if the receivers run to the end zone and he either can run and get the first down or throw it for a potential touchdown? Add into it that it wasn't like there was 13 seconds left didn't we have over a minute, you get the first down, get closer and kick a game tying FG within Cundiff's range? No our HC and DC gave that game to the Rams for giving us the number 2 pick! I smell a serious conspiracy here and anyone that doesn't see it for what it is, is blind. The Rams are a better team than last year, but no way we lose with the same exact game plan we ran last week, but no we give them a vanilla zone defense, lose 2 defensive starters and allow them to beat us like slaves physically.......Sorry the taste of this loss reeks.......

[CantonBound]

...and it was Gano that kicked a 59-yarder last year at Fedex, although, that's water under the bridge. The baffling 62-yard attempt decision is just further evidence that Danny Smith must have some really compromising pictures of Shanny being used as blackmail. Also, I always thought you put the game in the hands of your playmaker and I'm going to go out on a limb here but my suspicion is that Cundiff is not the playmaker on the team. Or, should I be expecting that "Cundiffing" will be the next hot thing?

[DaSkinzBaby]

...and it was Gano that kicked a 59-yarder last year at Fedex, although, that's water under the bridge. The baffling 62-yard attempt decision is just further evidence that Danny Smith must have some really compromising pictures of Shanny being used as blackmail. Also, I always thought you put the game in the hands of your playmaker and I'm going to go out on a limb here but my suspicion is that Cundiff is not the playmaker on the team. Or, should I be expecting that "Cundiffing" will be the next hot thing?

That was good best thing I have read all morning.....LMAO!!!!

[pjfootballer]

Funny that all of the guys supporting cutting Gano and bringing in Cundiff said, "how many times are we going to ask our kicker to kick a game winning FG from 50 yards out?" We're in week 2.

But anyway, I like Cundiffs consistancy from 50 yards and in, but I would have sent RG3 and the offense back out there. 4th is 16 percentage wise is hard, but it's doable. The Saints converted one for a TD on us the week before when Madieu Williams got turned around.

[hunterx]

Funny that all of the guys supporting cutting Gano and bringing in Cundiff said, "how many times are we going to ask our kicker to kick a game winning FG from 50 yards out?" We're in week 2.

But anyway, I like Cundiffs consistancy from 50 yards and in, but I would have sent RG3 and the offense back out there. 4th is 16 percentage wise is hard, but it's doable. The Saints converted one for a TD on us the week before when Madieu Williams got turned around.

Haha, funny. Yah I was on the side supporting Gano when we cut him for Cundiff. I wasn't soo far Gano-Wing that I didn't keep my eyes open to understanding that Cundiff is money from inside 40, which Gano struggled in. I guess if our philosophy is to generally go for it on 4th and inside 3 from 5, then I would completely understand going with Cundiff. If we still plan on taking long field goal shots, then we should have stuck with Gano.

I am still struggling to understand what convinced Shanahan to change his mind and kick it on 4th and 16 after the timeout, when he just had his offense there ready to go for it. Have any of the local beat writers brought this up and really asked Shanahan about it? I heard his post game response, but I think it deserves more hammering. If he was influenced by Danny Smith....ugh.

[s0crates]

Nobody seems to know that Cundiff made a 62 yarder in college.

I am surprised so many people have a problem with Shanny's call. The odds were stacked against regardless of the decision.

[hunterx]

Nobody seems to know that Cundiff made a 62 yarder in college.

Someone brought that up on one of these pages. Cundiff apparently said he made a 55 yarder in warmups, with 2-3 yards to spare. If we are looking at words, he said "a" 55 yarder, not some or a couple. I can't imagine he was 1/1 in warmups on it and decided that was enough. Even Fisher was surprised at the decision to kick the field goal, admittedly. Odds were bad no matter what, but there's always better odds with one decision than another. Just as you play hard on A-K suited on the deal, and have better odds than someone with K-10 suited. Anything can happen, but you play the odds.

Some --if not most-- of us here are wondering how the odds were on the side of the kicker than going for it at that spot of the field and 16 yards to go.

[Tsoe]

Hindsight aside, the field goal was the better option.

[Highway66]

the chances were about the same of making 4th and 16 as they were a 62 yard field goal

[Destino]

Hindsight aside, the field goal was the better option.

I disagree. There was no point in which Cundiff had a better chance of hitting that field goal than the offense had of picking up that first down.

[s0crates]

I disagree. There was no point in which Cundiff had a better chance of hitting that field goal than the offense had of picking up that first down.

I am a bit surprised how many people are so sure of this fact about the odds.

The NFL average on 4th and 15+ is something like 15%. The NFL average on kicks over fifty yards is something like 64%. It is hard to figure the average for 60+ yard attempts, as I cannot find anybody who keeps track of that, and they are so rarely attempted.

Lest it be assumed that a 62-yarder is an impossibility (or even a low probability like 5%), consider just how many kickers at all levels (high school, college, and pro) have made 60+ yarders. Its probably about 100 guys, give or take a few. Look it up. I linked a reference to this fact a couple pages back. Furthermore, and this is a key point, Billy Cundiff is one of those 100 or so kickers, having made a 62-yarder playing for Drake University as a junior.

I think the odds of Cundiff making that kick are obviously pretty low, but I do think it is something that is within his ability, which a lot of you seem to discount out of hand. I don't think the odds were great either way, but I do think they were about the same (maybe 10-20%).

You guys are criticizing the wrong decision. You want something to criticize Shanny about? I think the esteemed Bang might have an idea for you. Or for another idea: I think we should just stop with icing the kicker. I don't give a hoot everybody in the league does it either. It seems to backfire about as often as it works.

[Tsoe]

I disagree. There was no point in which Cundiff had a better chance of hitting that field goal than the offense had of picking up that first down.

Point noted, but anybody with perspective would give Cundiff a 30 or so percent chance of hitting that field goal. Contrary to belief, he does have the leg. 4th and 16 is a different story, not everybody puts D Hall on an island for 8+ seconds and hopes he makes a stop.

[bowhunter]

:ols:I think Danny Smith wanted to kick the FG since it would catch the Rams FG blocking unit off guard, anything to increase his percentages

[Destino]

Point noted, but anybody with perspective would give Cundiff a 30 or so percent chance of hitting that field goal. Contrary to belief, he does have the leg. 4th and 16 is a different story, not everybody puts D Hall on an island for 8+ seconds and hopes he makes a stop.

Based on what? He's 5/20 all time from 50+ (25%). Even that however is misleading being that 3 of those 5 occurred almost a decade ago in 2003. Since then he's 2/14 from 50 yards (14%). Those numbers are from 50 not 62.

There was never a moment in which Cundiff had a 30% chance. Anyone that is familiar with his career knew that when he trotted out onto the field the redskins had lost the game.

---------- Post added September-18th-2012 at 09:00 PM ----------

I am a bit surprised how many people are so sure of this fact about the odds.

The NFL average on 4th and 15+ is something like 15%. The NFL average on kicks over fifty yards is something like 64%. It is hard to figure the average for 60+ yard attempts, as I cannot find anybody who keeps track of that, and they are so rarely attempted.

Lest it be assumed that a 62-yarder is an impossibility (or even a low probability like 5%), consider just how many kickers at all levels (high school, college, and pro) have made 60+ yarders. Its probably about 100 guys, give or take a few. Look it up. I linked a reference to this fact a couple pages back. Furthermore, and this is a key point, Billy Cundiff is one of those 100 or so kickers, having made a 62-yarder playing for Drake University as a junior.

I think the odds of Cundiff making that kick are obviously pretty low, but I do think it is something that is within his ability, which a lot of you seem to discount out of hand. I don't think the odds were great either way, but I do think they were about the same (maybe 10-20%).

You guys are criticizing the wrong decision. You want something to criticize Shanny about? I think the esteemed Bang might have an idea for you. Or for another idea: I think we should just stop with icing the kicker. I don't give a hoot everybody in the league does it either. It seems to backfire about as often as it works.

Id take the 15% see above. Cundiff is HORRIBLE by NFL standards from over 50 yards. He was 1/6 last season as an example.