Get your jerseys printed: Niles Paul will be the breakout star of the rest of the season

[SkinsTillIDie]

Outside of Anthony Armstrong, we don't have another wide receiver on the roster that can attack a team as a deep threat. His absence against the Rams and in the second half of the Cowboys clearly stunted what we could do on that side of the ball. Unable to stretch the field, our passing game badly suffered. Santana Moss and Jabar Gaffney are solid, dependable route runners and are almost entirely effective in underneath routes and routes within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage, comeback routes, etc. They don't possess the physical attributes anymore to be playmakers down the field, nor do they possess the playmaking ability after the catch -- they don't get YAC, they can no longer make defenders miss, they don't break tackles, they can't run away from defensive backs, and in almost every situation where they face a tackler, they (smartly) go down to protect themselves/the ball. It's not a matter of being a "#1" or "#2" receiver; Moss and Gaffney are effective but limited players.

“Armstrong, I think, is one of the fastest guys out there and so it’s always nice to have him in there to stretch the field. We have a few other guys who can run too. You always want some speed out there. It definitely helps… If there’s no one scared of [someone] to run by them, it definitely changes. Not every one of our receivers is as fast as the one you’re talking about, [but] none of our guys are slow so all of them are capable of getting down the field. When you have a guy who is faster than everyone else, it obviously opens it up a little bit more.”

Moss and Gaffney can run, but they just aren't deep threats, and they don't make plays downfield. They can be singlecovered on fly patterns, and nearly all starting cornerbacks can run with them downfield. And they don't possess the size/strength/leaping ability to come down with contested balls -- indeed, only an extremely accurate throw to a wide open Moss/Gaffney downfield will be completed. There's a reason why we haven't seen that this year.

Many of us have had high hopes for Terrance Austin, but despite plenty of opportunities to see playing time (with Anthony Armstrong's absence and competition against rookies), he hasn't delivered. He's still on 3 career receptions, and he's not the physical specimen to be a playmaker. Even with Armstrong's absence, he was actually benched between Weeks 3 and 4, seeing 20 snaps against the Cowboys to 5 against the Rams. He was even benched behind Donte Stallworth, who has lost his deep speed and seems to be this year's Roydell Williams/Joey Galloway.

Leonard Hankerson's season will likely mirror, at best, Brandon Marshall's rookie year. Like Hankerson, Marshall was drafted by Shanahan as a talented, mid-round "big" receiver, underdeveloped with plenty of room for polishing. He was brought on slowly, which appears to be exactly what we're doing with Hankerson:

“He gets a chance every day on the scout team. We coach our scout team hard. It’s as important as anything. If your scout team slacks at all, it’s going to hurt your starting defense or your starting offense. We stay on those scout team guys hard and I think it really benefits those guys, too, because they actually get a year to really practice and develop their craft. I think it really helps them. I think he’s getting better each day. He’s showing improvement each week.”

This is where Niles Paul fits in.

Niles Paul has trusted each week with more and more responsibility. First, he saw time exclusively as the gunner on special teams, where he has clearly thrived (outside of the personal foul call last week). Against the Rams, he saw the field for 22 snaps, 18 of which were running plays. He dominated run-blocking.

He’s probably one of the better blockers I’ve seen in the game. He’s a very aggressive guy, loves contact. He has a body for it. He wants to compete. He loves to compete. He’s an aggressive receiver that wants the ball in his hands and to put punishment on the DBs every time he gets a chance to.”

Rich Campbell: "Paul is a very good blocker, possibly the best among Washington’s receivers. Most importantly, he has the right attitude. Because he had to block for Nebraska’s option attack in college, he understands how valuable that job is. He doesn’t care about whether passes are thrown his way, only contributing to the team.

And because of his role at Nebraska, Paul’s blocking technique is quite good. Several times on Sunday he controlled his defender by getting his hands inside. On RB Roy Helu’s 9-yard cutback run in the first quarter, Paul ran against the grain and cut DE Chris Long on the backside, which opened the lane for Helu."

It is only time until the Shanahans give Niles Paul targets in the passing game. Fred Davis is currently the only receiver we have who can get yards after the catch, break tackles, and run away from some defenders. Niles Paul possesses these exact same attributes, with more breakaway speed.

He ran an average 4.45 40-yard dash at his combine (with a low of 4.41) and a 4.46 40 at his pro-day. His 20-yard dashes were equally impressive, at 2.58 and 2.56 respectively, with a vertical leap of 34 1/2 inches and a broad jump of 09'09." He benched 24 reps at the bench press. At 6'1 and 225 lbs, he has all of the physical attributes to be that go-to, big-play wide receiver -- our 2nd principal deep threat; the playmaker we need to turn a 15 yard gain into a 40+ yard gain. Though clearly unproven, he may already be the best wide receiver we possess with the ball in his hands. (Combine numbers)

"Some scouts felt Paul could be the next first-round receiver coming from the Big 12 conference (Dez Bryant, Michael Crabtree, Jeremy Maclin) because of the all-purpose game he showed in 2009."

(link, NFL Draft Scout)

Paul also possesses the "unknown" factor that helped Armstrong surprise the league with a sensational rookie year. Nobody has tape on him, and given that he has featured almost entirely on special teams and running plays, when he is on the field, teams won't be scheming to defend him. He will get single coverage, and opposite of Armstrong, may only have to beat one defender before he sees daylight. Grossman is the type of quarterback that, once he has trust in his receiver, will go back to him time and time again, even if he's not wide open. Moss and Gaffney can't fight through traffic to consistently make plays on the ball (or even ensure an interception doesn't ensue), but Paul possesses those physical attributes.

Niles Paul fell in the draft because of apparent "maturity issues" (an enormous red flag these days), but following extensive research, Shanahan deduced that this wouldn't be a problem. These issues stemmed from some DUIs as a young, college athlete -- clearly, he has displayed enough maturity to excel on special teams and in the run blocking game, showcasing the potential to continue to produce in more areas of the game. He also fell because of a lack of body of work at the run-first, run-second Nebraska program. This, naturally, is all in the past, irrelevant now.

“I think if you really go into detail and really look what happened, you see a little bit of a mistake there. I think he addressed it through the media. He’s really a quality kid, talking to his coaches and people that have coached him. I don’t think you have to worry about any character issues with him. So I feel very good about him.”

Niles Paul in his own words: WaPo Journal

We need another deep threat that can stretch the field, a playmaker who can turn small gains into big ones. Niles Paul can be that player and he will get the opportunity to do so. He's a player with first-round physical attributes -- size, strength, leaping ability, speed, explosiveness -- with the competitive and workaholic mental intangibles, while already proving on film that he can excel in the responsibilities that he is asked to do. This will only lead to greater opportunities in the passing game, big plays, and a breakout performance over the rest of the season. Just you watch.

[Hitman21ST]

I sure hope so. I desperately want at least one of the rookie wideouts to shine this year. Personally, I want it to be Hankerson, but that's doubtful as he hasn't even dressed yet. But I wouldn't be upset with Paul, either.

[Gurgeh]

The Eagles will already have noted that we ran almost every time Paul was on the field, so that's one thing that will have to change. Whether he gets targetted will come down to how well he is running his routes in practice, because he has the athletic ability and a safe pair of hands.

[jazzy1]

I respect Paul's blocking but we need a playmaker catching the ball a field stretcher.

[SkinsHokieFan]

When I spoke to Paul after the Tampa preseason game he talked about "blocking his butt off" constantly.

He has a great attitude and is a BIG kid. I don't think people realize how big he really is. I am hoping he can breakout

[Destructis]

Paul is also the gunner on punts and has the speed to get down and lay a big hit. Definitely one of my favorite rookies this year and will only get better.

---------- Post added October-15th-2011 at 09:59 PM ----------

I would also like to add that I do follow him on twitter and haven't seen anything he has posted that showed a lack of maturity.

[SWFLSkins]

I think Niles is going to be the number one or two guy in the next year or two. I just wish he would get some more looks especially in the RedZone. I just don't understand why they have not targeted him there.

[SKINS'n'Spurs]

Niles Paul has trusted each week with more and more responsibility. First, he saw time exclusively as the gunner on special teams, where he has clearly thrived (outside of the personal foul call last week).

I know this is not the overall point of your thread, but that foul was total B.S. That was a solid shoulder hit and perfectly legal every year before in the NFL. I want the players protected so that we can enjoy watching long fruitful careers, but I also want the hard hitting, knock out classic NFL, its tough, but officials have to do a better job.

Niles Paul is going to be a beast; As long as he keeps it up, it sounds like he will be breaking away for game winning receptions down field (a la Moss v. DAL 9/19/05) ; can't wait!

[Kelvin Bryant]

Excellent post. The Skins didn't really need to use Paul as a receiver in the Rams game. I wonder if Kyle set up a "tendency" of running when Paul is in that he can suddenly break if the Eagles start to believe it.

[SWFLSkins]

Excellent post. The Skins didn't really need to use Paul as a receiver in the Rams game. I wonder if Kyle set up a "tendency" of running when Paul is in that he can suddenly break if the Eagles start to believe it.

I kind of wondered that myself. I know coaches set up teams all the time, I hope Niles gets the looks he deserves.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Santana Moss and Jabar Gaffney are solid, dependable route runners and are almost entirely effective in underneath routes and routes within 20 yards of the line of scrimmage, comeback routes, etc. They don't possess the physical attributes anymore to be playmakers down the field, nor do they possess the playmaking ability after the catch -- they don't get YAC...

Santana Moss had more yards after the catch last year than any other WR in the league.

[SkinsTillIDie]

Santana Moss had more yards after the catch last year than any other WR in the league.

Mostly a product of the bevy of passes we threw to him within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, where there is a ton of space to pick up additional yards, even if only 4 or 5 yards a clip. How often would he catch a 10 yard pass, or 25 yard pass, and turn it into an additional 20 or 30+ yards? He doesn't have "yards after the catch ability" -- he doesn't break tackles, almost never makes a guy miss (unless he executes one of those patented spin moves, which are unfortunately all too rare these days), can't run away from most corners and safeties. He's 63rd in the league this year (though while playing one less game than most receivers).

Stats don't tell the whole story, or most of the story. His diminishing skills don't necessarily show up on the stat sheet (though his yards per reception has declined in each successive year for 8 consecutive seasons), but they show up on the eye test.

[B&GVol24]

Happy he was getting reps against St Louis. Hey, they gotta throw it to him sometime right?

Love this guy's work ethic. And if he does turn into the breakout star of the rest of the season, I'll definitely get my jersey printed

[TSO]

Wow, this thread was a thoroughly enjoyable read. Great job, man.

I've been saying for some time now that our offense has been affected more than we think with the loss of Armstrong, and that we've got to figure out what we can do to bring a major deep threat to the table here. I've been saying we've either got to get Banks involved more or get Armstrong back. Well, now you've made me really consider Paul as an option here with your well-put together thread.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

Mostly a product of the bevy of passes we threw to him within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, where there is a ton of space to pick up additional yards, even if only 4 or 5 yards a clip.

Out of curiosity, who do you think are the best YAC receivers in the league?

How often would he catch a 10 yard pass, or 25 yard pass, and turn it into an additional 20 or 30+ yards? He doesn't have "yards after the catch ability" -- he doesn't break tackles, almost never makes a guy miss (unless he executes one of those patented spin moves, which are unfortunately all too rare these days), can't run away from most corners and safeties.

WRs rarely get their YAC by breaking tackles or making guys miss. RBs break tackles, and punt/kick returners make guys miss. WRs get their YAC by gaining good separation and with their speed (along with having a QB who can actually hit them in stride). When moss has a step or two on a DB or safety, I don't see him getting tackled right away, if at all...and that's the only way you'd be able to say if he "can't run away from most corners and safeties".

He's 63rd in the league this year (though while playing one less game than most receivers).

They are using him more as a possession receiver this year...he's been making some key 1st down grabs to keep the chains moving.

Stats don't tell the whole story, or most of the story. His diminishing skills don't necessarily show up on the stat sheet (though his yards per reception has declined in each successive year for 8 consecutive seasons), but they show up on the eye test.

Ah, the dreaded "eye test", as if everyone who simply watches the game will all reach the same conclusion lol...

His speed has not diminished to any real degree and it could be argued that his route running has improved (it usually does with good veteran WRs). But how he is being used has changed.

[SkinsTillIDie]

Out of curiosity, who do you think are the best YAC receivers in the league?

WRs rarely get their YAC by breaking tackles or making guys miss. RBs break tackles, and punt/kick returners make guys miss. WRs get their YAC by gaining good separation and with their speed (along with having a QB who can actually hit them in stride). When moss has a step or two on a DB or safety, I don't see him getting tackled right away, if at all...and that's the only way you'd be able to say if he "can't run away from most corners and safeties".

They are using him more as a possession receiver this year...he's been making some key 1st down grabs to keep the chains moving.

Ah, the dreaded "eye test", as if everyone who simply watches the game will all reach the same conclusion lol...

His speed has not diminished to any real degree and it could be argued that his route running has improved (it usually does with good veteran WRs). But how he is being used has changed.

In my mind, the best YAC guys are the guys with the elite speed (Desean Jackson, Mike Wallace types) or the bigger receivers who do, in fact, break tackles (Anquan Boldin in his prime) or make people miss with quickness and toughness (Wes Welker). Chris Cooley in his prime was great YAC, he was almost never taken down with the first tackler (using his "limp legs"). And Santana Moss was one of the greats in his prime.

But those times are far, far gone. I don't want to turn this into a Santana Moss thread, but he's nothing like the receiver he was in his prime. Don't you remember all the quick screens with Brunell, the play we ran far too often but was probably our most dangerous? Moss used to be one of the most dangerous guys in the league, and he's just not anymore. How many times have we seen him catch a pass over the middle, with tons of space, but he gets caught from behind? Really, every time. At this point in his career, I would imagine almost every starting cornerback and safety could beat him in a 40 yard dash. Maybe not 10, or 20, but he doesn't have that breakaway speed anymore, or that elite quickness that could consistently juke a player out of his shoes. He was a better Desean Jackson in his prime, and unfortunately Jackson is a far, far more dangerous and dynamic receiver (weapon) than Moss is today.

Moss may be a better route runner, sure, and he's still a hell of a receiver. Moss this year is probably better than any other receiver we've had not named Moss, outside of Lavernaues Coles' one great season in 2003, in a decade. Of course, that's not saying all that much compared to the other franchises in the league.

For all of the great 'stats' that Moss has been putting up, he hasn't been making "big plays." He only had 9 receptions of 20 yards or more last year, equal to Chris Cooley, who by no means is a big play threat. Of the top 30 receiving leaders last year, only Wes Welker had less 20+ yard receptions -- who plays a similar role to the one that Moss plays now, but is a far more effective version of such. For comparison's sake, Moss had 24 20+ yard receptions in 2005.

"Possession receiver" is used to describe a receiver who won't/can't beat you with deep speed, the guy who is only targeted in underneath stuff. Any such receiver with a lot of targets is a "possession receiver." Moss' yards-per-reception are (for the 7th year in a row) at a career low at 11.7, which isn't good for a wide receiver -- but that's obviously an average of a first down every reception. Most completed passes are for first downs, which really negates the notion of the receiver who "keeps the chains moving." Any good receiver keeps the chains moving. And Moss is still a good receiver, but he's more limited than he's ever been. And he would be (and is) fine in this offense, but we are all the more limited given that Jabar Gaffney is just basically a poorer man's Santana Moss at this stage in his career, taller but less quick. (Indeed, their stats are pretty similar: 21 receptions for 246 yards versus 17 receptions for 238 yards).

You say "how he is being used has changed," though "his speed has not diminished to any real degree." C'mon, you're better than this Califan. If his speed hadn't diminished to such a degree, he'd still be one of the most feared receivers in the league. Or even feared. He's not even the target teams are scheming to stop anymore, as Fred Davis has overtaken him as our 'most dangerous receiver.' His role has changed because the Shanahans figured out where his skill set can most help this team -- in the slot, utilizing his short-yardage quickness, route running and dependability. But he can't, and hasn't been, stepping in to fill the "deep threat" or "playmaking" wide receiver that we've lacked, all the more demanded in Armstrong's absence. And that's where I think Niles Paul will, in time, step in to fill that much needed void.

[Est.1974]

Mike Shanahan agrees with you. From his presser a couple of days back :

On wide receiver Niles Paul:

“He’s going to be an excellent football player for a lot of years… He’s a football player. You can see it on special teams and watching him every day in practice. He’s going to get better and better as time goes on. You guys will be talking about him for a while.”

I posted that in another thread after listening to that presser. I expect him to get some reps pretty soon.

[ReMaDE]

This is a great post! Very informative.....I said this in a previous post, but I believe Hankerson and Niles are two very promising young receivers. Only time will tell!

[moondog]

I would actually be surprised if Paul doesn't get his first reception today. I think him playing so much in the running game last week was a product of us wanting to run the ball so much and knowing what he can do on the edge as a blocker. That being said, I think the coaches are smart enough to know that the Eagles will see that tendency and have gameplanned appropriate. Also, I think our run blocking has been superb and continues to get better every game so it doesn't make much of a difference if Philly knows what's coming because they haven't been able to stop it. I hope Torain and Helu get the bulk of the carries today - they have, so far, shown a much greater knack for breaking tackles or finding holes/cutback lanes respectively and we're going to need that today. Use Hightower almost exclusively as a third down back after starting him if they so choose.

[sportjunkie07]

Mostly a product of the bevy of passes we threw to him within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, where there is a ton of space to pick up additional yards, even if only 4 or 5 yards a clip. How often would he catch a 10 yard pass, or 25 yard pass, and turn it into an additional 20 or 30+ yards? He doesn't have "yards after the catch ability" -- he doesn't break tackles, almost never makes a guy miss (unless he executes one of those patented spin moves, which are unfortunately all too rare these days), can't run away from most corners and safeties. He's 63rd in the league this year (though while playing one less game than most receivers).

Stats don't tell the whole story, or most of the story. His diminishing skills don't necessarily show up on the stat sheet (though his yards per reception has declined in each successive year for 8 consecutive seasons), but they show up on the eye test.

have to agree with you skins.. though i do think moss has become a better route runner as his natural abilities are declining.

anyways, i have been high on niles paul since preseason, where he did nearly everything correctly. however, it was unnoticed by most fans.

i could see paul getting a lot more reps and making some plays from here out. he's a good football player and has a playmaking gene, just give him some time.

[Laxpunk2006]

Mostly a product of the bevy of passes we threw to him within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, where there is a ton of space to pick up additional yards, even if only 4 or 5 yards a clip. How often would he catch a 10 yard pass, or 25 yard pass, and turn it into an additional 20 or 30+ yards? He doesn't have "yards after the catch ability" -- he doesn't break tackles, almost never makes a guy miss (unless he executes one of those patented spin moves, which are unfortunately all too rare these days), can't run away from most corners and safeties. He's 63rd in the league this year (though while playing one less game than most receivers).

Stats don't tell the whole story, or most of the story. His diminishing skills don't necessarily show up on the stat sheet (though his yards per reception has declined in each successive year for 8 consecutive seasons), but they show up on the eye test.

This video was linked in another thread.

http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/media-lounge/videos/Film-Room-Redskins-Zone-Run-Scheme/b5dc3ad1-04c2-43bd-8b5a-ade155ae3cfe#?id=86d078cd-6253-4f2b-aab2-87060a58c0bb&channelName=Recent

They break down a passing play where Moss runs a skinny post. He doesn't seem to have a problem creating seperation with his speed or creating YAC. Moss can still get vertical its just not his role in this offense.

[SkinsTillIDie]

It is coming...

First start of his career last week.

Mike Shanahan's presser on Wednesday, on Niles Paul:

“He’s been pretty impressive from day one. I can’t say that he’s really improved in just one area, but he’s been very mature since he’s been here. I know he picks things up very quickly at all three wide receiver positions. He’s very physical and he’s been very consistent catching the ball both in practice and in games. It’s hard for a wide receiver during the game – the depth of your routes, can you do that when the pressure’s on? A lot of times, you get a little bit quicker going against different coverages. You haven’t experienced all of those situations during the games. Can you handle that and have enough poise to focus on the snap count and maybe check-offs and things along those lines. There’s a lot that goes into it, but I think he can handle it.”

Mike Shanahan, on the different responsibilities of the X and Z receivers:

“Sometimes, they are the same. Sometimes, we ask a little bit more out of the X to get downfield a little bit more on more explosive routes. Sometimes, we’ll ask our Z to be a little bit better blocker at the point of attack. We can switch it up. It all depends on what our game plan is and who we’re going against. You have to be able to be a football player first. That’s what we think [Paul] is.”

[Captain Injury]

Nice. Like it....

[Skinsfan4life83]

Paul has caught everything thrown his way thus far. Not to mention his size and blocking ability. I think him and Hankerson will be solid players for us. At least that's what I hope....

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Paul has caught everything thrown his way thus far. Not to mention his size and blocking ability. I think him and Hankerson will be solid players for us. At least that's what I hope....

I'm hopeful all this year's wide out rooks will be eventually, the speedster Robinson included.

Great to read Shanahan's comments on the progress of Paul. I'd read the HC saying either him or Armstrong will get the start Sunday, which is great to know. Here's to the start of a long, rich career in DC Niles.

Now if only Beck can get you the ball .....

Hail.