Are we overrating Todd Collins's performance?

[Thinking Skins]

So as a 4th of July celebration, I sat and watched some football, namely the Redskins Vikings game last year - a beautiful victory. But this victory brought up some things about Todd Collins's performance that kinda make me question if he really performed as well as people are acting like he did.

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He played in 5 games and performed as follows:

Against the Bears (the #27 defense against the pass last year), he was 15/20 for 224 yards and 2 touchdowns with no interceptions - a good game.

Against the Giants (the #11 defense against the pass last year), he was 8/25 for 166 yards, no touchdowns and no interceptions - not a horrible game and not a great game. He did his job and didn't lose the game.

Against the Vikings (the #32 defense against the pass last year), he was 22/29 for 254 yards, 2 touchdowns and no interceptions - by all means a really good game.

Against the Cowboys (the #13 defense against the pass last year), he was 22/31 for 244 yards, 1 touchdown and no interceptions - a good game.

Against the Seahawks (the #19 defense against the pass last year), he was 29/50 for 266 yards 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

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Compare that to Campbell's performances in the 5 weeks prior to his injury.

Against the Bears (the #27 defense against the pass last year), he was 10/15 for 100 yards no touchdowns and no interceptions

Agains the Bills (the #29 defense against the pass last year), he was 21/37 for 216 yards no touchdowns and 1 interception

Against the Bucks (the #1 defense against the pass last year), he was 30/49 for 301 yards 1 touchdown and 2 interceptions

Against the Cowboys (the #13 defense against the pass last year), he was 33/54 for 348 yards 2 touchdowns and 1 interception

Against the Eagles (the #18 defense against the pass last year), he was

23/34 for 215 yards 3 touchdowns and no interceptions.

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So collectively Collins was 96/155 (61%) for 1154 yards 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, giving him a rating of 94.4 during his 5 weeks of play,

Campbell was 117/189 (61%) for 1180 yards 6 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, giving him a rating of 81.44 during those final 5 weeks of his season.

Also take note that the average pass defense that Collins was going against is 20.4, while Campbell's average pass defense was 17.6.

We can see from the Campbell's rating that he was performing above his season rating of 77.6. Doing a lot more of directing the offense, if not carrying it ouright. Notice that in every game except Chicago, Campbell threw the ball at least 34 times. Collins only went over that number once, and that was in his worse performance agasinst Seattle.

Plus, the only game that portis gained more than 70 yards in was against Philly (where Portis gained 70 or more yards in all of Collins's starts except the Seattle game (he also didn't gain 70 yards against the Bears, but its not a Collins start)). Portis had performances of (137, 36, 68, 50 and 36) against (Philly, Dal, TB, Buf, Chi) respectively, while he had performances of (36, 126, 76, 104, 52) against (chi, NY, Min, Dal, Sea) respectively.

Also in two of the games that Campbell started, he was without one of his starting WRs (Moss against Philly and ARE against Buffalo). Collins didn't suffer from this (although ARE didn't catch a pass against the Giants).

What does all this mean? Well, I don't want to say it means anything, but I am pretty inspired that Campbell was doing a much better job with the Al Saunders offense and in general adjusting to the pro game (than he had been). Also, for all the talk about accuracy, its interesting that over this time period, Campbell had a higher completion percentage than Collins who was seemed to be the GOD of Al Saunders's offense. And its also worth noting that Campbell and Collins both fumbled 5 times in their respective 5 games.

I'm not going to say that Collins didn't perform well in Saunders's offense last year. But I think the Campbell haters have been too dismissive of how well Campbell was performing in this same offense. He was able to put up very respectable numbers up against very stiff competition (it can be argued that Dallas's defense didn't play as seriously against Collins because they had nothing to play for except pride because they had already clinched the #1 spot because of the GB loss the week before). He also had the burden of being the starting QB the week after the Sean Taylor tragedy, where the entire team was pretty emotional.

I look at these stats and I can understand the optimism some people have surrounding Campbell heading into training camp.

[Pedro]

Collins is a safe, won't lose the game but won't win it, QB. He was quick to dump the ball off to Portis. Campbell hopefully learnt from that and will add it to his game. It's a few small things like that that will give JC the safe aspect of Collins' game to go with his game winning ability.

That being said I hope Zorn tells JC to play and not worry about Ints, like Parcells did with Simms near the end of the 88 season. Hard to win, against good teams, if you're afraid of losing.

And yes I think we do overate TC. We won't beat the Pats/Colts/Chargers/Jags with a safe but unspectacular QB starting. He's a great backup but you wouldn't bet on us winning it all with him as starter. He could come in part way through a game (due injury to JC) and do it though because the opposition would be set up to stop JC.

There isn't a QB controversy in Washington.

[McD5]

Absolutely impossible to overrate the performance of Todd Collins.

The guy sat on the bench for ten seasons....saw limited reps......came in cold, kicked ass and took names.

You just can't possibly ask for anything else from the second stringer.

Now.....possibly underrating the performance of JC........but I wouldn't discount what Collins did.

[Tastes Like Chicken]

There are so many intangibles, though. The Giants game was basically played inside a tornado. The Bills game was right after Taylor's passing, and I don't think anybody's head was in that game. Unfortunately, it seems that JC wasn't able to close the deal a few times last year and Collins got the W's. Hopefully JC will find the right mix of chemistry, playcalling, and supporting personnel this year to get over the hump.

[elkabong82]

It is very possible TC had a much bigger playbook to work with. I wouldn't say people overrate TC's performance, given he is a back-up. I would say people underrate JC when comparing the performances of both QBs last season.

This thread does show though, just how ignorant some of the "TC is the Skins best QB" comments are.

[elkabong82]

Thank you for that sig TLC.

[jwpanic]

the most important stat for any qb is wins and losses. collins was 4-1. you can't overrate that. he was solid.

[skinfan2k]

Where are the TC nut huggers. SoCal and Taylorcore

[chipwhich]

I didn't know he was "rated"?

Not sure I even think this is worth discussing anymore.

Was Eli Manning "underrated" last year? He did win the superbowl?

Was Peyton "overrated", he didn't win anything.

Todd Collins won 4 games, had the benefit of the best offensive line performances we had the entire year, had the benefit of some bad weather, bad defenses, and he handled his business.

Not sure we can rate any of our QB's until we get some consistent, injury free, consecutive games of the offense performing as a unit.

[McD5]

This thread does show though, just how ignorant some of the "TC is the Skins best QB" comments are.

Nice way to get the thread started off on a positive note. :laugh:

If anything, a guy coming in after ten years cold and doing a better job than the starter we have so much invested in might support that our starter is a square peg that we are attempting to fit into a round hole.

It certainly isn't within a million miles of supporting that JC is a better qb than Todd Collins.

Too early to say. And hopefully JC improves.

Nice consistency elka.....A+.

[hail2skins]

Unfortunately, it seems that JC wasn't able to close the deal a few times last year and Collins got the W's. Hopefully JC will find the right mix of chemistry, playcalling, and supporting personnel this year to get over the hump.

That's it right there.

I don't think JC played badly last season, but it did seem like the offense did flow more smoothly with TC in there.

What JC hasn't been able to do is, as TLC says above, close the deal. Several games that the OP mentioned were situations in which JC had the rock in his hand at the end of the game with a chance to drive us to the winning score and he couldn't get it done. At some point that needs to happen.

[#98QBKiller]

I think Todd Collins was an average QB that knew the system inside and out. Now that we are running a completely new offense, I don't think you'll see Collins be able to step in and perform like he did last year in the Saunders' system, should something happen to Jason.

[MumboSauce]

I take nothing from Todd, I think he came in and did a good job considering the circumstances(Taylor's death, needing consecutive wins to make the playoffs) He had long tenure/benefit in the system he was in, made some plays, minimized mistakes and did what a decent back up should do.

At the same time I think way too many skins fans have it out for JC in a negative way to which I'm not sure why, nor think it's in totality warranted. Sure he needs to improve, and close out games better(ie ints in the 4th q. or last drives) But, with that said, feel he's much better than what a lot of this fanbase seems to think and deserves some praise, he was constantly improving before the injury.

[2cents]

My only problem with JC is the interceptions especially at the end of games when we had a chance to win. But he is young and still learning, and those are going to happen. I also have no problem with Collins coming in and playing well, he did his job. All it really means to me is that we have two decent QBs for the first time in a long time, and that is no problem at all.

[MustangSteve]

Collins came in and beat 5 teams in a row that was making a run for the playoffs as well, one being the SB Champs. Plain and simple, I dont think Campbell could have done that last year.

[SoCalSkins]

Where are the TC nut huggers. SoCal and Taylorcore

I am in China and happened to logon. You are the JC nut hugger. TC just happens to be a far superior QB than JC at this time. Doesn't mean either belong in the NFL as starters.

TC doubled JC's career wins against the division in 3 starts. He did the same for teams that finished above .500. There is no discounting the streak. JC was 1-5 before he was hurt and yet he has somehow improved or progressed?

TC comes in and we go 4-0 against 2 division teams, the defending SB champs, the NFC team with the longest active win streak at the time and the eventual SB champs. None of JC's wins last year came against teams that finished above .500. He is marginal against average teams and sucks against decent ones. The streak displayed how worthless JC has been.

Multiple picks, including a 1st, and now entering his 4th year he has led the skins to a single W against a team that finished above .500 and a single win against the division. Without JC starting, the skins have been a playoff team, with him, they haven't been. The Skins made the playoffs the 2 out of the 3 years he didn't finish as starter. There is no spinning or excuse for those facts. He has been a major bust up to his point. TC proved that JC was the weak link.

[Hubbs]

No, we're not.

Put it this way - if Collins were five years younger, there's a very, very good chance that Snyder would have thrown money at Saunders to try to keep him around and have Collins play as our starting quarterback for the better part of a decade.

When you lead the league in yards per attempt, one of the most important stats by which offenses are measured, you're not overrated.

[Voice_of_Reason]

The other thing to keep in mind is that TC had a much healthier team than JC did. Across the board, the 'Skins were getting people, especially in the WR corps, back when TC started playing.

I think that one of the things that TC benefited from is that nobody had any tape on him whatsoever. Campbell benefited from that a little last year. You'll notice that in the Seahawks game, after he had played a few games, they were designing defenses around him. The one that keeps coming to mind is that he went to the same checkdown on a blitz over and over, and the defender kept getting closer and closer to picking it off.

I am going to take nothing away from TC, but I actually believe that his performance was overrated, and I think that if he was starting this year, he would be absolutely picked to shreds.

We've already seen what a wimpy armed QB coming off of leading a team to the playoffs brings: a bad start and JC coming in off the bench.

[chipwhich]

I am in China and happened to logon. You are the JC nut hugger. TC just happens to be a far superior QB than JC at this time. Doesn't mean either belong in the NFL as starters.

TC doubled JC's career wins against the division in 3 starts. He did the same for teams that finished above .500. There is no discounting the streak. JC was 1-5 before he was hurt and yet he has somehow improved or progressed?

TC comes in and we go 4-0 against 2 division teams, the defending SB champs, the NFC team with the longest active win streak at the time and the eventual SB champs. None of JC's wins last year came against teams that finished above .500. He is marginal against average teams and sucks against decent ones. The streak displayed how worthless JC has been.

Multiple picks, including a 1st, and now entering his 4th year he has led the skins to a single W against a team that finished above .500 and a single win against the division. Without JC starting, the skins have been a playoff team, with him, they haven't been. The Skins made the playoffs the 2 out of the 3 years he didn't finish as starter. There is no spinning or excuse for those facts. He has been a major bust up to his point. TC proved that JC was the weak link.

Not personally pro or anti collins.

Your post simply shows how statistics are meaningless.

Brunell led us to the second round of the playoffs by your statistical conclusinon making. Actually it was a team effort that allowed us to get that far. Brunell was a one legged disaster at that point.

JC BY far had a worse team prior to Collins taking over. Collins benefited from SUPERIOR O-Line play, and OUTSTANDING play calling. Not sure how JC will end up, but he certainly didn't get any favors from the offensive line, offensive play calling, or receiver play. They all let him down.

[SnyderMustGo]

This seems more like a thread designed to excuse JC's performance than it is to evaluate Todd's value to this team.

[SoCalSkins]

Not personally pro or anti collins.

Your post simply shows how statistics are meaningless.

Brunell led us to the second round of the playoffs by your statistical conclusinon making. Actually it was a team effort that allowed us to get that far. Brunell was a one legged disaster at that point.

JC BY far had a worse team prior to Collins taking over. Collins benefited from SUPERIOR O-Line play, and OUTSTANDING play calling. Not sure how JC will end up, but he certainly didn't get any favors from the offensive line, offensive play calling, or receiver play. They all let him down.

Brunell did not take over a team that was on 1-5 streak and started winning. The Skins were a better team when PR was playing than when Brunell was if you look at the course of those seasons. JC has always been the worst QB on the roster from the second he was drafted in terms of his ability to lead the team to W's, which is the point of playing. If Colt makes the roster, this will be the first time ever in JC's career that he is not the worst QB on the team in his ability to get W's.

The only real change on the skins was TC taking over for JC and we start winning. All of those other factors were the same in the 1st half against the Bears. The reason we had better o-line play was because we had a competent QB for them to protect. The playcalling was no different, and even if it was, it proves that JC is not ready and may never be ready to lead an NFL team.

[Voice_of_Reason]

Ok, so I just watched some TC highlights (actually, not for this thread) but I'll tell you what, some of his best completions, the WRs had to do amazing acrobatics to catch the ball. Balls were high, low, all over the place and Moss in particular was doing an amazing job tracking the ball and leaping to come up with it.

TC played very well, he knew the offense, but his physical tools are just not NFL starter caliber. So he can play well in spurts, but once the league catches up to him, I don't think he would be successful. NOTE: 10 years of coaches thought the same thing. If any of the coaches thought he could actually play and win, he would have at least gotten a shot to get the starting job.

Heck, Gibbs (the $5 million a year coach) even saw what he could do and promoted him to backup over Brunell, who we KNOW was one of his favorites and somebody he had a ton of confidence in. Which nobody would have predicted this time last year.

[Riggins77]

The Skins made the playoffs the 2 out of the 3 years he didn't finish as starter. There is no spinning or excuse for those facts. He has been a major bust up to his point. TC proved that JC was the weak link.

Are you on crack? JC was on the bench when we made the playoffs in 2005 with Brunnell as the starter, he never played that season. The next year he didn't come in until Brunnell had stunk it up and we were 3-6. That was his first start and don't give me the "we were mathmatically in the playoff chase if we had won out" crap.

During those last 7 games he was learning Al's system. Last year, he led us to a 5-7 record before going down with an injury. Collins stepped in and did fantastic, no doubt, but JC is not a weak link.

It's a team effort and if I do remember correctly, week 3 against the Giants, our defense and playing not to loose cost us the game.

Week 6 at GB, play calling was horrible (reverse to Moss, fumble, TD GB) and Moss took himself out of the game. Didn't Portis fumble too near the goal line?

Week 8 against NE, just a good ole fashioned ass whooping. The defense allowed 52 ****ing points.....not many QBs are going to be able to win when your defense drops a goose egg. Oh yeah we lost Carlos for the season...

Week 10 against Philly, Campbell threw for 215 yards, 3 TDs, 0 Ints....Portis ran for 137 yards.........Well McNabb threw for 251 yards, 4 TDs, 0 Ints....So, can you say defense again?

Week 11 against Dallas, Campbell threw for 348 yards, 2 TDs, 1 Int......Romo sits to pee for 293 yards, 4 TDs, 1 Int.....oh wait, defense again because we decided that we could cover TO one on one with a corner and he burned us for 3 of the 4 TDs......

Week 12 against Tampa, Campbell threw for 301 yards, 1 TD, 2 Int.....I will give you this one. But we had six turnovers, that was the fumble bowl if I remember correctly.

Week 13 against Buffalo, a horrible performance by the team, most likely related to the passing of Sean Taylor. We lead the entire game until yet another fourth quarter collapse. Campbell was sacked 3 times, one for a safety (O-line's fault). He did throw one Int.

Do you actually watch the games or just find out the final score and make [insert starting QB name here] a scapegoat? I'm not saying the kid will be the next Joe Montana, but it is a team sport and when your coach plays not to loose and relies on your defense to hold, it can put any QB in a tough situation to win.

Look at TC against Seattle, he threw two picks that were returned for TDs....why? Because he was playing from behind and we had to get the ball down the field.

[Thinking Skins]

Ok, so I just watched some TC highlights (actually, not for this thread) but I'll tell you what, some of his best completions, the WRs had to do amazing acrobatics to catch the ball. Balls were high, low, all over the place and Moss in particular was doing an amazing job tracking the ball and leaping to come up with it.

TC played very well, he knew the offense, but his physical tools are just not NFL starter caliber. So he can play well in spurts, but once the league catches up to him, I don't think he would be successful. NOTE: 10 years of coaches thought the same thing. If any of the coaches thought he could actually play and win, he would have at least gotten a shot to get the starting job.

Heck, Gibbs (the $5 million a year coach) even saw what he could do and promoted him to backup over Brunell, who we KNOW was one of his favorites and somebody he had a ton of confidence in. Which nobody would have predicted this time last year.

Just to echo that, he missed his first 8 or so passes against the Giants, looked respectable against the Vikings (fumbled twice), and had many errant throws. And this was against the worse pass defense in the NFL. He had the exact same completion percentage as JC over a 5 game span. I just don't see how he's worldbeaters better than JC. They were both playing well against Chicago. And who is to say that Campbell wouldn't have won that game too? Who is to say that Campbell wouldn't have won any of those last 5 games? Particularly the seattle game?

I think sdkast nailed it when he said that no teams had any tape of TC. Thats probably why he did so well. I think he's a bit overrated.

[SoCalSkins]

I think sdkast nailed it when he said that no teams had any tape of TC. Thats probably why he did so well. I think he's a bit overrated.

Then why was he able to doulble JC's entire career wins against the NFCE and teams that finished above .500? I have never heard a response from anyone on those 2 facts regarding our "franchise QB". No one had tapes on JC and he started 2-5. Once people got tapes of him he finished 1-5.

And no one has tapes of Zorn calling a single play in the NFL as a coach. Based on that logic with JC, we should expect to start at least 4-0 this year or you will call for him to be benched.