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Prediction Thread - How much longer will Ron Paul last in the 2008 election?

footballhenry

By footballhenry
in The Tailgate

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TMK9973

TMK9973

Posted
Posted
I know I'm a big ol dork in this, but is anyone else fascinated about how the delegate system works as compared to what we are told by the media?

I've learned so much new information on our political process this year. It's amazing what I never knew about it.

No -Here's why.

It's irrelevant.

Forget the committed or uncommitted.

Look at the Electoral College. In theory - They are not required to vote for the person the state voted for. They COULD vote for anyone they decide.

Also - That is a state by state. Some states, such as Maryland, even have a law that says their Electoral college votes should go to the winner of the popular vote nation wide, regardless of what their state votes for (Although it doesn't kick in unless every other state passes the same law).

Other states, such as Colorado have debated about doing away with their winner takes all. But haven't done so.

My point is there are lots of things like that. But you need to look how it works in Practice.

Delegates vote for who they said they were going to vote for when they were selected. Usually, all those "Uncommitted" go to how ever has the nomination sealed.

In a brokered convention - They still will vote 1st ballot for who they agreed to. Then it will be all about negotiating.

Now - I know you have this fantasy about Ron Paul somehow getting all these delegates in a brokered convention - But it won't happen. Lets say it goes to brokered convention because McCain has 40% of delegates, Romney has 30%, Huck has 20%, and Paul has 4%, Thomson has 1%

Huck is the king maker, not Paul. Paul is irrelevant. McCain and Romney will make offers and promised to Huck.

Snyder -You once told me that if Paul doesn't finish in the top 3 in one of the early BIG primaries (Which you said was Iowa, NH, Michigan, or FL) that you would accept that he didn't have a chance.

Well, he didn't.

And yet you are still coming up with these far fetched scenarios.

So I will ask once again.

What will it take for you to realize he has no chance?

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SnyderShrugged

SnyderShrugged

Posted
Posted
[/color]

No -Here's why.

It's irrelevant.

Forget the committed or uncommitted.

Look at the Electoral College. In theory - They are not required to vote for the person the state voted for. They COULD vote for anyone they decide.

Also - That is a state by state. Some states, such as Maryland, even have a law that says their Electoral college votes should go to the winner of the popular vote nation wide, regardless of what their state votes for (Although it doesn't kick in unless every other state passes the same law).

Other states, such as Colorado have debated about doing away with their winner takes all. But haven't done so.

My point is there are lots of things like that. But you need to look how it works in Practice.

Delegates vote for who they said they were going to vote for when they were selected. Usually, all those "Uncommitted" go to how ever has the nomination sealed.

In a brokered convention - They still will vote 1st ballot for who they agreed to. Then it will be all about negotiating.

Now - I know you have this fantasy about Ron Paul somehow getting all these delegates in a brokered convention - But it won't happen. Lets say it goes to brokered convention because McCain has 40% of delegates, Romney has 30%, Huck has 20%, and Paul has 4%, Thomson has 1%

Huck is the king maker, not Paul. Paul is irrelevant. McCain and Romney will make offers and promised to Huck.

Snyder -You once told me that if Paul doesn't finish in the top 3 in one of the early BIG primaries (Which you said was Iowa, NH, Michigan, or FL) that you would accept that he didn't have a chance.

Well, he didn't.

And yet you are still coming up with these far fetched scenarios.

So I will ask once again.

What will it take for you to realize he has no chance?

Thanks for the mild insult TM, I dont believe I had any "fantasy" in my post that you responded too?

I'm pretty sure I simply asked if anyone else found the way the delegate thing worked out as interesting and if anyone else had that same interest.

Nice spin to paint me in a negative light once again.

Also, I'm not even sure you have a basic understanding of how this phase of delegates actually works.

Why would you bring up the electoral college at all in your commentary? That has zero bearing since we are discussing delegates to state conventions and not the national yet.

Are you confusing things some? By the link I posted, even adding in the uncommitteds all going to the leader, there is only a 6-7% margin between first and fourth place.

My point was that what is reported as a whole could be very different (yet, I would realistically have to doubt it) from what CNN is giving as delegate counts.

So, pop quiz.

How many delegates to the state convention are firm for NV, LA, and IA right at this moment?

How many

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jbooma

jbooma

Posted
Posted

Paul is the only one who has a chance against them.

KEN YOU ARE A DEM RIGHT :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

Paul has no chance and you know it how has he done vs McCain in the republican primaries, ummm not good. If he runs as an independent then he is a phony repbublican period. Doesn't McCain right now have higher numbers then Hill but not Obama :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

If Paul runs as an independent then he should have run as a Libertarian, but accoring to the Paul backers he is a republican. Lets see if he proves it to them.

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jbooma

jbooma

Posted
Posted

Ken:

McCain leads former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney 48 percent to 24 percent among probable GOP voters as he continues to rapidly consolidate support, particularly among moderates and liberals. Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee runs third in the new poll with 16 percent, and Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.) is fourth at 7 percent.

Now please tell all of us how does 7% become > then 48%

I want to understand exactly how your math works.

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SnyderShrugged

SnyderShrugged

Posted
Posted
KEN YOU ARE A DEM RIGHT :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

Paul has no chance and you know it how has he done vs McCain in the republican primaries, ummm not good. If he runs as an independent then he is a phony repbublican period. Doesn't McCain right now have higher numbers then Hill but not Obama :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

If Paul runs as an independent then he should have run as a Libertarian, but accoring to the Paul backers he is a republican. Lets see if he proves it to them.

Paul has been a republican for 20 years. :doh:

I'd challenge that he is one of the very few true republicans left.

The "Republican" party was founded as a protest to the direction of the country and the poitical parties that were present at the time. They did this out of their worry that we were moving away from our status as a "republic".

To me, this is exactly the same rationale that Ron Paul is following now. It's obvious that the term "republican" has now strayed from the very point upon which it was created.

It's laughable to hear anti-Paul folks try to claim he isnt a "Republican" when those that they support actually fall under that designation. A desire to live in a "republic" rather than a federalist state.

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Ken

Ken

Posted
Posted
KEN YOU ARE A DEM RIGHT :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

Paul has no chance and you know it how has he done vs McCain in the republican primaries, ummm not good. If he runs as an independent then he is a phony repbublican period. Doesn't McCain right now have higher numbers then Hill but not Obama :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:

If Paul runs as an independent then he should have run as a Libertarian, but accoring to the Paul backers he is a republican. Lets see if he proves it to them.

I should have prefaced my comment with "if he gets equal opportunity to send his message and is not censored".

But thanks for stating the obvious...

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Ken

Ken

Posted
Posted
Paul has been a republican for 20 years. :doh:

I'd challenge that he is one of the very few true republicans left.

The "Republican" party was founded as a protest to the direction of the country and the poitical parties that were present at the time. They did this out of their worry that we were moving away from our status as a "republic".

To me, this is exactly the same rationale that Ron Paul is following now. It's obvious that the term "republican" has now strayed from the very point upon which it was created.

It's laughable to hear anti-Paul folks try to claim he isnt a "Republican" when those that they support actually fall under that designation. A desire to live in a "republic" rather than a federalist state.

But, but,.....you don't understand, this is a different world. One that our forefathers did not understand. The constitution is just a god damned piece of paper!

We need to spend into an oblivion, nation build, and feed the corporate need.

You and the Paul backers are lunatics!

/sarchasm

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jbooma

jbooma

Posted
Posted

It's laughable to hear anti-Paul folks try to claim he isnt a "Republican" when those that they support actually fall under that designation. A desire to live in a "republic" rather than a federalist state.

If he runs as an independent then he isn't, since he will be going against the republican party. That is my point. If he wants to create his own party that is fine but the republican party has changed over time, it was created back in 1850.

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jbooma

jbooma

Posted
Posted
I should have prefaced my comment with "if he gets equal opportunity to send his message and is not censored".

But thanks for stating the obvious...

Ken he has been in the debates, he can get in the news but it is clear he is not putting the same effort as others. What is he doing with all that money he is making..... hmmmm

He is soft spoken and rignt now that is NOT what this country needs.

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GibbsFactor

GibbsFactor

Posted
Posted
Ken he has been in the debates, he can get in the news but it is clear he is not putting the same effort as others. What is he doing with all that money he is making..... hmmmm

He is soft spoken and rignt now that is NOT what this country needs.

God forbid we do anything for our selves. Pretty sad actually. The land of the free needs to have someone to follow. :doh:

Which one's giving the most free **** away? I'll vote for them!

Which one's gonna blow the hell out of any country that challenges us? I'll vote for them!

And we are the loons? :mad:

We are patriots.

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jbooma

jbooma

Posted
Posted
God forbid we do anything for our selves. Pretty sad actually. The land of the free needs to have someone to follow. :doh:

Which one's giving the most free **** away? I'll vote for them!

Which one's gonna blow the hell out of any country that challenges us? I'll vote for them!

And we are the loons? :mad:

We are patriots.

This is where everyone is missing the point.

The president needs to be able to lead, yes he/she can have great ideals and such but there is a reason why they select a cabinet. The reason why presidents are great is who they have under them. This is the same philosphy of every great company.

Paul is brilliant person and would be great on someones cabinet, but he is not going to be able to LEAD the country.

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GibbsFactor

GibbsFactor

Posted
Posted

I think he's a great leader. He's inspiring.

If you want to compare a leader to the likes of JFK, FDR, Ronnie then fine. I don't need rah rah speeches, this isn't a game, I don't need to be pumped up. I want someone that leads by example. But don't get me wrong, I understand that the masses don't. Because who wants to do the right thing? We don't need personal responsibility, we have the Government to take care of us.

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