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Prediction Thread - How much longer will Ron Paul last in the 2008 election?

footballhenry

By footballhenry
in The Tailgate

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wysknz1

wysknz1

Posted
Posted

I can see why voter apathy continues. With the candidates out there......

But like I said before Ron's got my vote even if I have to write it in. Call it a protest vote, but I cannot in good conscience vote for ANY of the others, rep or dem.

I also see him doing to the republican party what Nader did to the dems...but I guess that makes me part of the problem, OH well, the whole world's gone to hell in a handbasket since David Lee Roth left Van Halen.

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SnyderShrugged

SnyderShrugged

Posted
Posted
I can see why voter apathy continues. With the candidates out there......

But like I said before Ron's got my vote even if I have to write it in. Call it a protest vote, but I cannot in good conscience vote for ANY of the others, rep or dem.

I also see him doing to the republican party what Nader did to the dems...but I guess that makes me part of the problem, OH well, the whole world's gone to hell in a handbasket since David Lee Roth left Van Halen.

LMAO!! I love the VH reference! :laugh:

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PleaseBlitz

PleaseBlitz

Posted
Posted
He will stay in the GOP Nom race until the majority of actual (this is an important distinction, btw) Delegates are for someone else officially.

What many dont realize that much of the delegate figures that are reported via the old media, are not real yet. They are estimates based on caucus straw poll finishes.

Currently, I think I've read that Mccain has roughly 8% of solid delegates, despite his perceived lead.

Fair enough. :cheers:

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SnyderShrugged

SnyderShrugged

Posted
Posted
Fair enough. :cheers:

Thanks for being respectful in your response! (sometimes I almost cringe when I see a new RP related response come in these days! LOL)

:cheers:

I'm not at all well versed in how the whole delegate thing works in detail, but here is a great link that breaks it down.

I'm unclear what they are meaning between hard, soft, and alternate delegate counts though. I've actually posted a thread in another site to try and learn more.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/R.phtml

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SnyderShrugged

SnyderShrugged

Posted
Posted

OK, here is what I've just learned from a friend about the delegate link I posted.

The short answer is, that each state has different delegate selection rules. Also, in many states, delegate selection is a multi-staged process.

So... hard delegate count is basically, the minimum number of delegates a candidate has earned.

Soft delegate count is the number of delegates a candidate has "likely" earned once the process works through...

The alternative soft delegate is the number of delegates a candidate has "likely" earned IF the party changes the rules to let the states that voted prior to February 5th (other than Iowa & NH) seat their entire delegation, rather than 50% -- which was the penalty for having an early primary/caucus against the wishes of the party...

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/R.phtml

The only thing I am unsure of now is what specifically happens to Thompson delegates.

I'm not sure if they go to the "uncommitted" column, or back to the overall "free" population.

I must say, this topic is interesting as heck to me! I hope it is for you guys too.

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footballhenry

footballhenry

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At least we don't support a bigot. :2cents:

A bigot??? You want to explain what you mean by that insult?

I mean seriously, where is the value in your post? :doh:

This messageboard community is incredibly dissappointing far too often. So many of you just hurl knee-jerk insults, and reactions without putting any thought into what your actually typing. I think the word 'respect' is something many of you 'adults' could learn to practice every once and a while.

Oh yeah...thats just my :2cents:

Oh, and if your comment is due to the allegations of racism hurled at him, maybe you should watch this interview with him about these allegations-> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CoQWAXuUyI

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Koolblue13

Koolblue13

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I also see him doing to the republican party what Nader did to the dems...but I guess that makes me part of the problem, OH well, the whole world's gone to hell in a handbasket since David Lee Roth left Van Halen.

I feel the same way. I am fairly certain Clinton will walk into the WH and that's been my position for a while now. Just a gut thing. I can see the Reps blaming Paul for stealing votes and putting her in there, but whatever, i'm still voting for him.

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TrumanB

TrumanB

Posted
Posted
I can see the Reps blaming Paul for stealing votes and putting her in there, but whatever, i'm still voting for him.

Well, if Paul runs as an independent, he'll have as much impact in the general election as he does in the Republican nomination process - which is zero. He polls at about 4% nationally and that isn't enough to influence the election. Especially since probably half of those will vote for the Dems strictly for the Iraq war issue. :2cents:

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GibbsFactor

GibbsFactor

Posted
Posted
A bigot??? You want to explain what you mean by that insult?

I mean seriously, where is the value in your post? :doh:

This messageboard community is incredibly dissappointing far too often. So many of you just hurl knee-jerk insults, and reactions without putting any thought into what your actually typing. I think the word 'respect' is something many of you 'adults' could learn to practice every once and a while.

Oh yeah...thats just my :2cents:

Oh, and if your comment is due to the allegations of racism hurled at him, maybe you should watch this interview with him about these allegations-> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CoQWAXuUyI

You seem confused. I was referring to McCain in that post.

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PleaseBlitz

PleaseBlitz

Posted
Posted
Well, if Paul runs as an independent, he'll have as much impact in the general election as he does in the Republican nomination process - which is zero. He polls at about 4% nationally and that isn't enough to influence the election. Especially since probably half of those will vote for the Dems strictly for the Iraq war issue. :2cents:

4% COULD be enough to hand a close election to the Democrat nominee. If that is the case, Ron Paul ® Tex will **** over his own party and be responsible for making Hilary President of the United States and perpetuating the Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton line.

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Koolblue13

Koolblue13

Posted
Posted
Well, if Paul runs as an independent, he'll have as much impact in the general election as he does in the Republican nomination process - which is zero. He polls at about 4% nationally and that isn't enough to influence the election. Especially since probably half of those will vote for the Dems strictly for the Iraq war issue. :2cents:
Hillary is NOT an anti-war canidate. If Iraq is the #1 issue, a Paul Kucinich ticket would be the top anti-war pair.
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Koolblue13

Koolblue13

Posted
Posted
Thats what is called "being a footnote in history."

Hope you guys are proud if that happens.

Honestly, I don't think Paul would matter that much. The right has nothing to run and I don't see any of those canidates going against Clinton. Bush has this locked up for the Dems. I also don't think the Hillary hate will be enough to draw the right out to vote against her.

I only think Paul will be a scapegoat, not the cause of the win for Clinton.

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footballhenry

footballhenry

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You seem confused. I was referring to McCain in that post.

Why insult McCain like that then without any substance? Seriously, theres a trend in this forum of lashing out at posters and politicians with zero substance to back up claims....its just irritating really.

My apologies though on misunderstanding, but since this is a RP thread and your post was 'At least I don't support a bigot'....I just misread it. TrumanB is one of the posters on this forum that offers little insight and over-the-top insults at RP incessantly....don't let his methods of arguing & insults rub off on you. Noone wants their candidate of choice demeaned without any facts or substance to back it up. But again, my apologies for misunderstanding the post.

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TrumanB

TrumanB

Posted
Posted
4% COULD be enough to hand a close election to the Democrat nominee. If that is the case, Ron Paul ® Tex will **** over his own party and be responsible for making Hilary President of the United States and perpetuating the Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton line.

Well, you're making the assumption that the 4% will all vote Republican. It's more likely that it will split between the two parties, so the net effect is zero.

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TrumanB

TrumanB

Posted
Posted
TrumanB is one of the posters on this forum that offers little insight and over-the-top insults at RP incessantly....don't let his methods of arguing & insults rub off on you. Noone wants their candidate of choice demeaned without any facts or substance to back it up. But again, my apologies for misunderstanding the post.

The facts about Ron Paul can all be found in these 2 threads (and not just from me, but from other posters). You actually have to open your eyes and mind to actually accept the fact that the man and his ideas have serious flaws.

http://www.extremeskins.com/forums/...hlight=ron+paul

http://www.extremeskins.com/forums/...ad.php?t=233877

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Ken

Ken

Posted
Posted
4% COULD be enough to hand a close election to the Democrat nominee. If that is the case, Ron Paul ® Tex will **** over his own party and be responsible for making Hilary President of the United States and perpetuating the Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton line.

Sorry, but if the Republicans are stupid enought to trot out McCain and whoever against Hillary and OBAMA (Yes, this is going to be the ticket, mark it down), then this will be a landslide.

Paul is the only one who has a chance against them.

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