mikalax2 Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 It seems like every post out there right now has to do with the denver trade, and if we should do it or stay at 6. People who want to stay at 6 say we need an impact player right away, while the people who want to trade want to get depth and hope to land a gem with the 21st pick. Well I honestly would not mind either (hoping we make the correct draft moves) but I think our best option is trading down no later than # 15 and picking up a 2nd or a 3rd & 4th. This is why... I'm bored at work so I decided to look into the defensive rookie of the year (because they are obviously immediate impact players) over the past couple yrs and see where they are drafted, or if there were any trends. This is what I found YR/Name/Pos./Team/defensive player draft #/ overall draft # 1999 - Jevon Kearse, DE Tennessee - 5 - 16 2000 - Brian Urlacher, LB Chicago - 4 - 9 2001 - Kendrell Bell, LB Pittsburgh - 19 - 39 2002 - Julius Peppers, DE Carolina - 1 - 2 2003 - Terrell Suggs, LB Baltimore - 5 - 10 2004 - Jonathan Vilma, LB NY Jets - 4 - 12 2005 - Shawne Merriman, LB San Diego - 5 - 12 2006 - DeMeco Ryans, LB Houston - 19 - 33 Now what I picked up from this: In the past 8 drafts only once did one of the first 3 defensive players picked end up being the defensive rookie of the year. Obviously many still played great, but many also flopped. I think that the first couple defensive picks are so often chosen because of all the hype and potential that a bunch of them flop. That is why I am sceptical of the big 3 this year in Adams, Anderson, and Branch. I am also afraid that if we make the denver trade that we will be just a little to far to pick up the gem of the draft. I like the idea of picking up depth, but I still think we do need the immediate impact on the DL. That is why I think the best plan is to trade down between 6-15, and take Okoye or Carraker, while picking up another pick or two. Who knows, the draft is a crap shoot, but thats my 2 cents. Sorry for the long post... HAIL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siven Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 It would be smart to try and stay above 12, cause you want to try and get a stud player, but if that talk in the houston skins is true, that would be good, the #8 and a 3rd and then we would be off pretty good. I dont buy into the defensive rookie of the year stats. Look at where those players are now and how they improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikalax2 Posted March 9, 2007 Author Share Posted March 9, 2007 It would be smart to try and stay above 12, cause you want to try and get a stud player, but if that talk in the houston skins is true, that would be good, the #8 and a 3rd and then we would be off pretty good. I dont buy into the defensive rookie of the year stats. Look at where those players are now and how they improved. I also dont care that much about DROY but everyone seems to want a immediate impact, so I figured I would give it a look. I also would love that texan trade. Who knows maybe if someone else gave competition we could actually get their 2nd instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gca61087 Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 good points. i have believed since november that carriker is that player we should draft. especially since we will be able to add some depth/picks by trading down to get him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba9497 Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 I don't worry about anything until it happens too many false rumors out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjfootballer Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 If we don't end up with a good trade, stay at 6 and get the best defensive player available. Then we'll have to look at 08 draft for more players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gorebd82 Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 I think that what you really need to look at with DROY is the position the people play. A lot of the top D picks are DBs and DTs. Those are positions that don't necessariy put up big stats as rookies. DTs don't get sacks and rookie corners don't get a lot of picks. The DEs that won were Peppers (who is a freak) and Kearse on a Super Bowl team. LBs are in a position to make plays and don't have high draft stock. Don't let the awards fool you, if you can get an impact DL you can't turn it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ceviker Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 It seems like every post out there right now has to do with the denver trade, and if we should do it or stay at 6.People who want to stay at 6 say we need an impact player right away, while the people who want to trade want to get depth and hope to land a gem with the 21st pick. Well I honestly would not mind either (hoping we make the correct draft moves) but I think our best option is trading down no later than # 15 and picking up a 2nd or a 3rd & 4th. This is why... I'm bored at work so I decided to look into the defensive rookie of the year (because they are obviously immediate impact players) over the past couple yrs and see where they are drafted, or if there were any trends. This is what I found YR/Name/Pos./Team/defensive player draft #/ overall draft # 1999 - Jevon Kearse, DE Tennessee - 5 - 16 2000 - Brian Urlacher, LB Chicago - 4 - 9 2001 - Kendrell Bell, LB Pittsburgh - 19 - 39 2002 - Julius Peppers, DE Carolina - 1 - 2 2003 - Terrell Suggs, LB Baltimore - 5 - 10 2004 - Jonathan Vilma, LB NY Jets - 4 - 12 2005 - Shawne Merriman, LB San Diego - 5 - 12 2006 - DeMeco Ryans, LB Houston - 19 - 33 Now what I picked up from this: In the past 8 drafts only once did one of the first 3 defensive players picked end up being the defensive rookie of the year. Obviously many still played great, but many also flopped. I think that the first couple defensive picks are so often chosen because of all the hype and potential that a bunch of them flop. That is why I am sceptical of the big 3 this year in Adams, Anderson, and Branch. I am also afraid that if we make the denver trade that we will be just a little to far to pick up the gem of the draft. I like the idea of picking up depth, but I still think we do need the immediate impact on the DL. That is why I think the best plan is to trade down between 6-15, and take Okoye or Carraker, while picking up another pick or two. Who knows, the draft is a crap shoot, but thats my 2 cents. Sorry for the long post... HAIL!! Great analysis - I agree with you 100%. I would like to stay in the Top 15 so we can grab someone like an Adam Carriker or Amboyle Okoyle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Burgundy Rhino Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 I understand where you are coming from. But the Defensive Rookie of the year might not be the guy to put us over. We need a lot more than 1 guy. We need depth. We need roll players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyansRangers Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 but there are players like vince wilfork who might not be DPOY but they are anchors of the defensive line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishisthegreatstuff Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 love it at levitz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 I think that what you really need to look at with DROY is the position the people play. A lot of the top D picks are DBs and DTs. Those are positions that don't necessariy put up big stats as rookies. DTs don't get sacks and rookie corners don't get a lot of picks. The DEs that won were Peppers (who is a freak) and Kearse on a Super Bowl team. LBs are in a position to make plays and don't have high draft stock. Don't let the awards fool you, if you can get an impact DL you can't turn it down. I think this is a very good point. Besides, you don't have to be DROY to be an immediate impact player. I think the original poster's analysis is well done and insightful but not necessarily that meaningful to the draft per se since you draft based on the best talent you can get for the need that you have, not on trending analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taylor362183 Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 I understand where you are coming from. But the Defensive Rookie of the year might not be the guy to put us over. We need a lot more than 1 guy. We need depth. We need roll players. AGREED 100 percent:applause: :applause: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No_Pressure Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 :obvious: .......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregpeck99 Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 One impact player > than 3 or 4 rookies fighting to get on the field (e.g. Rocky McIntosh). All you Kiperites ... go away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildbill1952 Posted March 9, 2007 Share Posted March 9, 2007 Like everyone else, I want a real impact player in the draft. I want a DL that opposing offenses spend time practicing to prevent him from being detrimental to their offense. The reasons are obvious: if they spend time preparing for one player, they have less time to prepare for the rest of the game plan. The final result being, a better result for the Skins. I also have a fear that next year we get just "better". By getting better, I mean the defense shows up, Campbell matures and we end up making the playoffs with an 8-8 or 9-7 record. The following year we're in the middle of the draft and again we have no chance to get that "impact" player everyone wants. So I understand the desire to get that impact player, like a Sean Taylor, who'll be with the Skins for 7 or more years. But the statistics the original poster put up make me wonder if another Defensive End, like a Carriker or an Okoye or a Johnson, might, in fact, be better two years down the road. Branch (a DT, I know) looked out of shape at the combine and Anderson didn't even show up. Maybe less hype equals more desire to prove one's worth. So, although I'll probably have selective amnesia and deny it, these stats along with a desire to have some other picks, make me think the trade down is still the right move. We know we need DL help. I think one of the three DL mentioned above would still be available at #21. The DL is deep in this draft. We need some other young legs. Take the later draft number and the additional pick(s). JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Consigliere Posted March 10, 2007 Share Posted March 10, 2007 It would be smart to try and stay above 12, cause you want to try and get a stud player, but if that talk in the houston skins is true, that would be good, the #8 and a 3rd and then we would be off pretty good. I dont buy into the defensive rookie of the year stats. Look at where those players are now and how they improved. Especially since Miami, Minnesota, and SF at minimum would all seriously consider whosever available amongst Anderson, Branch, Okoye, Adams and Carricker. I'm not really interested in moving lower than say 10th. Any lower and we'll probably be stuck with the last of them, or none of them and then we're S.O.L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRSmith Posted March 10, 2007 Share Posted March 10, 2007 With the end of the NFL's first week of wheeling and dealing, in which the Broncos were the most aggressive team, look for Denver to turn its attention to the draft - and to concentrate on moving up in the first round. While the Broncos are leaders in trading players, they are also aggressive in draft maneuvering. Last year, after a series of trdes, they moved from No. 29 to No. 11 and were able to snare Jay Cutler. This year, Denver likely will try to move up again. Whether or not cornerback Dré Bly is dealt, Denver is expected to have more conversations with the Redskins about the No. 6 pick. The Jets, with the No. 25 pick, also are expected to try to move up. Washington reportedly is willing to part with its top pick and wants to stockpile more picks. With an extra third-round pick (acquired from Washington), Denver has the numbers to move up. The Broncos don't think they have a lot of needs, so they are looking for an impact player or two from the draft rather than a stockpile of low-round prospects. With their offensive needs addressed in free agency, expect Denver to pick up an impact defensive lineman at the draft. Top names available include Clemson defensive end Gaines Adams and Michigan tackle Alan Branch, who is from Rio Rancho, N.M. A move into the top six is required to get either player. http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_5404627 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Tomb Posted March 10, 2007 Share Posted March 10, 2007 With the end of the NFL's first week of wheeling and dealing, in which the Broncos were the most aggressive team, look for Denver to turn its attention to the draft - and to concentrate on moving up in the first round. While the Broncos are leaders in trading players, they are also aggressive in draft maneuvering. Last year, after a series of trdes, they moved from No. 29 to No. 11 and were able to snare Jay Cutler. This year, Denver likely will try to move up again. Whether or not cornerback Dré Bly is dealt, Denver is expected to have more conversations with the Redskins about the No. 6 pick. The Jets, with the No. 25 pick, also are expected to try to move up. Washington reportedly is willing to part with its top pick and wants to stockpile more picks. With an extra third-round pick (acquired from Washington), Denver has the numbers to move up. The Broncos don't think they have a lot of needs, so they are looking for an impact player or two from the draft rather than a stockpile of low-round prospects. With their offensive needs addressed in free agency, expect Denver to pick up an impact defensive lineman at the draft. Top names available include Clemson defensive end Gaines Adams and Michigan tackle Alan Branch, who is from Rio Rancho, N.M. A move into the top six is required to get either player. http://www.denverpost.com/sports/ci_5404627 Okay, a few days ago I was so psyched about the possibility of this trade going down. After giving it some thought, I'm not sure what we should do anymore. It seems like Denver is always content to short change us in a trade (i.e. CP for Bailey AND our 2nd Rounder) and I'm not sure I would entirely trust their FO anymore. We've been on the losing side almost everytime we've done business with them. Now, we'd slink down to the #21 in the draft and might get a second rounder and a third rounder out of it. Somehow, I just don't see this happening. I can almost guarantee you that Denver will try to screw us again! A) We won't get the DL that we need so badly; Denver will leave us with a late second and third round pick after all of the "starting caliber" players have been snatched up. No, I say if Quinn is still on the table, pull the trigger with the reported Texans deal we have working in our favor (for once). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRSmith Posted March 10, 2007 Share Posted March 10, 2007 Okay, a few days ago I was so psyched about the possibility of this trade going down. After giving it some thought, I'm not sure what we should do anymore. It seems like Denver is always content to short change us in a trade (i.e. CP for Bailey AND our 2nd Rounder) and I'm not sure I would entirely trust their FO anymore. We've been on the losing side almost everytime we've done business with them. Now, we'd slink down to the #21 in the draft and might get a second rounder and a third rounder out of it. Somehow, I just don't see this happening. I can almost guarantee you that Denver will try to screw us again! A) We won't get the DL that we need so badly; Denver will leave us with a late second and third round pick after all of the "starting caliber" players have been snatched up. No, I say if Quinn is still on the table, pull the trigger with the reported Texans deal we have working in our favor (for once). I would rather we do two first round trades then one with the Broncos myself, Texans then another one if there are still good players on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rex Tomb Posted March 10, 2007 Share Posted March 10, 2007 I would rather we do two first round trades then one with the Broncos myself, Texans then another one if there are still good players on the board. Yeah I just don't trust Denver's modus operendi anymore. Their FO splurges as much, if not more, than we do and they NEVER get called out for it by the mediots. :broncosuc DON'T DEAL WITH DENVER! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wyvern Posted March 10, 2007 Share Posted March 10, 2007 but there are players like vince wilfork who might not be DPOY but they are anchors of the defensive line So true. Defensive Rookie of the Year? Nice, but I think we're looking for someone who makes the others around him better Unless you believe that Montgomery,Kolston, or Salavea represent the answer - we need a major wide-body talent at DT to work beside Griffin. Once we shore up that interior D-line, we make our smallish MLBs look so much better. We make our DEs look better because the opposing QB can't step into the pocket to avoid the outside pressure. If we shore up against the run, that means more pass attempts and consequently more opportunities for our DEs, OLBs or Safeties to get a sack. (Also down the road, any free-agent DEs would see our beefed up interior D-line as another major inducement to sign with Washington. After the the money, most DEs really like racking up sacks and stats.) The further down we allow ourself to slide in this draft, the less a chance we have at a one of the more dominant DTs. Yeah, I know the draft is an iffy proposition -- still, its safe to say that one's chances to snag elite talent are better the earlier one is able to pick. If we go down to #21, we will likely wind up with someone who can 'stick' in the NFL -- but we'd be extremely lucky if that person turned out to be an elite player down the road. Howver, ff we stay with our hard-earned #6, we have a good chance at picking an elite player at the outset, with the possible downside he'll disappointus by not being as 'elite' as we had hoped. And unless this wound up being the rare case of a major bust -- our downside would simply be we'd wound up picking someone who could 'stick in the NFL' rather than being elite. I say we need to aim high in 2007, because we aren't going to be picking this high in future drafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
talk show host Posted March 10, 2007 Share Posted March 10, 2007 It seems like every post out there right now has to do with the denver trade, and if we should do it or stay at 6.People who want to stay at 6 say we need an impact player right away, while the people who want to trade want to get depth and hope to land a gem with the 21st pick. Well I honestly would not mind either (hoping we make the correct draft moves) but I think our best option is trading down no later than # 15 and picking up a 2nd or a 3rd & 4th. This is why... I'm bored at work so I decided to look into the defensive rookie of the year (because they are obviously immediate impact players) over the past couple yrs and see where they are drafted, or if there were any trends. This is what I found YR/Name/Pos./Team/defensive player draft #/ overall draft # 1999 - Jevon Kearse, DE Tennessee - 5 - 16 2000 - Brian Urlacher, LB Chicago - 4 - 9 2001 - Kendrell Bell, LB Pittsburgh - 19 - 39 2002 - Julius Peppers, DE Carolina - 1 - 2 2003 - Terrell Suggs, LB Baltimore - 5 - 10 2004 - Jonathan Vilma, LB NY Jets - 4 - 12 2005 - Shawne Merriman, LB San Diego - 5 - 12 2006 - DeMeco Ryans, LB Houston - 19 - 33 Now what I picked up from this: In the past 8 drafts only once did one of the first 3 defensive players picked end up being the defensive rookie of the year. Obviously many still played great, but many also flopped. I think that the first couple defensive picks are so often chosen because of all the hype and potential that a bunch of them flop. That is why I am sceptical of the big 3 this year in Adams, Anderson, and Branch. I am also afraid that if we make the denver trade that we will be just a little to far to pick up the gem of the draft. I like the idea of picking up depth, but I still think we do need the immediate impact on the DL. That is why I think the best plan is to trade down between 6-15, and take Okoye or Carraker, while picking up another pick or two. Who knows, the draft is a crap shoot, but thats my 2 cents. Sorry for the long post... HAIL!! i dont give a crap about defensive rookie of the year. sean taylor wasnt defensive rookie of the year. does that mean we should have drafted another safety instead of him? your reasoning is misguided, but i applaud the research you did. maybe you can research all defensive players who went to the probowl in their first two years in the NFL and tell us where they were drafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
talk show host Posted March 10, 2007 Share Posted March 10, 2007 Okay, a few days ago I was so psyched about the possibility of this trade going down. After giving it some thought, I'm not sure what we should do anymore. It seems like Denver is always content to short change us in a trade (i.e. CP for Bailey AND our 2nd Rounder) and I'm not sure I would entirely trust their FO anymore. We've been on the losing side almost everytime we've done business with them. Now, we'd slink down to the #21 in the draft and might get a second rounder and a third rounder out of it. Somehow, I just don't see this happening. I can almost guarantee you that Denver will try to screw us again! A) We won't get the DL that we need so badly; Denver will leave us with a late second and third round pick after all of the "starting caliber" players have been snatched up. No, I say if Quinn is still on the table, pull the trigger with the reported Texans deal we have working in our favor (for once). the difference between this year and all others is WE have leverage against denver. they are wanting the same guy we would take at #6, so they will have to really offer a nice deal to make this thing work. unlike denver, we potentially have NUMEROUS holes to fill on our team. it seems the writing is on the wall for shawn springs. if he leaves, i am entirely dissatisfied with the CB position. We also need 2 new defensive linemen, not just one. we also need another TE and a starting-caliber offensive lineman. like it or not, trading down is the best option for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsFan13 Posted March 10, 2007 Share Posted March 10, 2007 I dont know if you can rely on rookie of the year stats to tell you what the best decision is. Almost all of them improve alot after there first year, and I dont really see not getting rookie of the year as a flaw in a player. Some guys take a little longer to develop, and then they turn into monsters that are 10x better then whoever was rookie of the year when they started out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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