Redskins Have to Go 8-3 From Here Forward

[method man]

When multiple teams are 10-6, they first do tie-breakers within division. Since the Cowboys had already lost to us twice, they would not have made the playoffs.

If we do well in our division from here out (wouldn't shock me if all four teams went 3-3 in the NFCE), then other tiebreakers might come into account. But if we're tied 10-6 for a wildcard against teams in other divisions, that's where head-to-heads could match up very favorably.

In a scenario in which say the Rams, Vikes, Falcons, us, and Cowgirls are all 10-6, how do you decide who gets the wildcard spots? It would have to be conference record because the other two are irrelevant. For example, we could beat the Rams who could beat the Vikes, who they play later this season. Similarly, I don't think the Falcons and Vikes play this season. Furthermore, wouldn't the division record be a prime determinant only if it is all teams from the same division fighting for one wild card spot?

[the burgundy and gold]

yes, we definantly have to go 8-3 from here on out

[The Dude]

Stickied.....as an example of an outstanding post.

Thanks for doing this. Thoughful posts tend to inspire thoughtful responses.

[C.Taylor]

When multiple teams are 10-6, they first do tie-breakers within division. Since the Cowboys had already lost to us twice, they would not have made the playoffs.

That's the case for teams tied in the same division (i.e. intra-divisional tiebreakers are used). For teams tied from different divisions it's 1) head-to-head competition; 2) conference record; 3) record against common opponents (minimum 4); 4) strength of victory: 5)strength of schedule; 6)..... :doh:

[stanley seay]

i hate to put a "damper" on the previous posts but wouldn't it be the REDSKIN'S "LUCK"

to lose to the TITANS. they must have played "tough" against a real good COLTS team. they had better NOT look "past" this team or any other team from here on out.

it doesn't get any "easier" down the road. they will need to win almost all of their

remaining games to have a "chance" to make the play-offs or even the "wildcard"

opportunity. i wish for "ONCE" they would not put themselves in the situation for "have to" wins. although they came through last year with the "5 straight" victories they can

not depend on that kind of "mentality" in order to be a "playoff team". this is my own

personnal feelings on their year. sorry if i touched a nerve in this post. i have been a

fan a long time & i feel it is my "duty" to say my mind in the situation as it stands now.

[method man]

This is a look at the other wild card contenders

1) Vikings

The Vikings have only 3 hard games left (Carolina, Chicago, and Seattle). They are 3-2 so far and, even with one more loss, they should get a wild card spot.

2) Rams

They are wildly inconsistent. One week they lose to the 9ers, next week they beat the Broncos. Right now, they are 4-1. However, they have had a fairly easy schedule so far. In the coming 5 weeks, they may get slaughtered.

3) Falcons

They are 3-1 so far. However, they still have to play the NFC Beast, the AFC North, and still have NFC South divisional games. So, they have a rough road ahead.

4) Saints

They are 4-1 but have had an easy schedule so far. They face the same problem as the Falcons. As an inferior team, they should be exposed as pretenders soon enough.

5) Cowboys

Yeah, they are 2-2 and seemingly on the verge of implosion but this is a mirage. They simply went to Philly's house and got beat there in a game that was close till the end. They should finish 10-6

6) Giants

With a tough schedule at 2-2. As everyone knows, they are a crappy road team. They are on the road two weeks in a row at the ATL and Dallas. Losing these two games could derail them and lead to infighting within the team.

[skins1972]

The problem is this team seems to do horrible on the road against the division rivals.. look at last year!! We pulled off a miracle against the pukes 14-13 and almost lost to the eagles with tons of injuries!! Then lets look at the raiders game.. This team came out flat AGAIN at and against other teams as well.. there is a problem with carrying the same intansity over from week to week and I dont know if that is the coaching or the players fault!! I have little hope that this team is going to make the playoffs, they show no heart and they sure show no sense of urgency!!!

I dont know if 10-6 is going to make it to the wild card, and if we are talking about wild cards then we are talking about playing away and not having home field advantage. Once again we know how this team plays on the road!! I really hope we take advantage of our what is left for draft picks for 2007 and really invest on the Defensive side.. CB's DE's LB's(weak side anyway) and some back up for the OL!! I am just being realistic.

[CrypticVillain]

Yeah, last week I was telling people we had to go 8-4, So I agree. And I counted the Giants game as a lost. So in my book we are on track. But we won't be if our Secondary keeps getting raped, and the offense keeps on goning three and out. It seems like I have been saying this forever, and I can't stand it. We have to many weapons on this team to be playing like this.

I wasn't around during the first Gibbs era, so I don't know if we struggled like this in the beging of any season. But last year we were 3-0 to start off, we lost our next 6 out of 8. So I am not going to panic.

[Eparadox]

Hey, I'm still optimistic we'll make the playoffs at 9-7 if we beat the right teams (Philly, Dallas, Rams, Giants, Saints)

[redskingluvr]

We only have one game this week.

[kleese]

When multiple teams are 10-6, they first do tie-breakers within division. Since the Cowboys had already lost to us twice, they would not have made the playoffs.

I believe this is incorrect. The FIRST tie-breaker in a multiple team tie situation is still head to head.

Let's say we finish at 10-6. Say the Saints and Rams do as well. If we beat those two, our record would be 2-0 in the first tie-breaker. We would win the tie-breaker regardless of NFC record.

[skinsmania123]

Great post Bulldog!

I think what bothers me most as a fan is the lack of enthusiasm. There is no "little train that could.." evident to me YET this year. There is just no drive that I can see or fight...oh well!

[Jofizz]

All of your points are very true, Bulldog. Like it or not. Outstanding post.

This team is right back where it was before the Jacksonville game as Om put it. At a crossroads.

This team needs to get it into their heads that every game from here on out is a must win situation.

[Abshir]

Good Post. But don't be afraid to say what it is that also lurks in your mind. That Brunell is a joke and we need to set an example and bench this guy. I really believe that Campbell can see the field better and expose alot of the defenses in this league. Especially with all the weapons we have on the recieving corps. Also, campbell is not the messiah but lets give the kid a chance he has a hell of an arm. Picture that ! HTTR

[SonnyRules]

After being away for three weeks, I just got caught up with Tivo and I could swear that I was looking at two different teams.

In the games with Jacksonville and Houston, the Redskins looked like they were back with the intensity that won them five games in a row at the end of last year.

Then came the Giants game. OMG, talk about going through the motions with little or no interest at all.

For some of us, the frustration is seeded deep in the fact that the 2006 version of the Redskins simply does not perform up to their potential.

I say this because of the high hopes we had coming into this season and the new additions seemed to address some of the weaknesses we had as we went further in the playoffs.

I simply refuse to believe that Shawn Spring's absence is the ONLY reason why Williams has abandon the blitz ....not wanting to expose our corners. Or that the pathetic offensive production is due to COVER 2. Something else is going on and I can't quite put my finger on it.

Bulldog points out that we have to go .720 the rest of the way out. That is a very tall order when you realize that the remaining teams on the schedule have a combined winning percentage of over .700.

It hurts me when I say this, but the Eagles are playing as good as any other team in the NFL. I think I can be man enough to admit it and respect their turn around. If we want to win the division we need to win both games against them to have a chance.

Dallas has as many, if not more problems than we do; yet they beat us like a red headed step-child. We need to exact a large measure of revenge the next time we meet at FedEx.

The Giants secondary absolutely sucks, but when the rubber hit the road they had their way with us. Another reason to get jacked up and run all over those impostors.

I believe at 2-3 this version of the the Redskins still has an outside chance of making the playoffs. However, there needs to be an immediate attitude adjustment and the Titans are the perfect team to start a new (and long) winning streak.

HTTR!!!!

[pyrokinesis]

Wow! Thank you for the detail. I was predicting a 10 - 6 season before last weeks outcome. I think the Eagles will be easier just based on their past match ups with the Redskins. I feel like the giants always are a poor match for the skins, regardless of skill level... and it's the opposite for the Eagles.

[bigredone]

I walk away from the boards, the articles, the videos with one thought......Joe Gibbs seems very loyal to players and in an era of free agency, play the best...those two things do not Jive

[Moss Boss]

Like others have said, this was a good post and I'm holding out hope that our players and coaches get it together thought the evidence points to the contrary. Now, perhaps last week was just a result of a desperate Giant team coming off a bye week and who also happened to be at home. We honestly looked a whole lot worse last year. We'll just have to see.

Now, I hate looking at the schedule and say we need to go 8-3. We have to take it game by game. One game at a time.

Going into the season, to get to 10-6, I look at it like this:

since we lost to the Vikings, we need to make up that win somewhere. I had us losing every NFC road game, so we can make it up in Philly. I had us losing one of Tampa and Carolina. We can make it up by winning both. I had us beating Atlanta so that needs to happen, and obviously if we beat the Colts, that makes up another win.

The absolute CAN NOTS are losing at home to NFC east opponents, and losing to the inferior teams (Rams, Saints, etc.). We can lose 2 of the four games against Philly, Atlanta, Carolina, and TB. We can lose the Colts. Yeah, that means 8-3, but I prefer to look at it this way. And also, each team's situation changes on a week-by-week basis. Lets just start with a win against the Titans and build up from there.

[landon26]

Tons of valid, good, and sad but ture points have been made from all of you responsing to bulldogs thread. I can agree mostly with all of it, but the biggest problem in this whole deal hasnt been mentioned. In my opinion, which is insignificant really in the grand scheme of things, the problem lies somewhere else.

In my mind we have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, but even more so now on offense. We have been a defensive team since the late nineties into the 2000's and more improved recently with the aquisition of Greg Williams. Im going to focus on the offense.

It's very rare that a running back can carry a whole team and produce wins week in and week out. Obvoiusly the o-line plays a huge role in this for a successful runnning game. We have in Clinton Portis one of the most premier all around backs in the NFL, that we all know. The running game in my mind hasnt been all bad, 146 yards on average per game before the giants, 3rd in the NFL. But there could be more, much more.

As far as recievers go, Santana Moss....enough said. The playmaker. The man. ARE, is multi-talented and can bring and has at points brought a lot to the offense. Sky is the limit with this guy. Brandon Lloyd, we know he can perform remarkable catches and he gives us somewhat more of a taller deep threat. More speed, and better crisp routes can break apart defensive schemes. Chris Cooley, had a breakout season last year, finishing better statistically than even high marketed Todd Heap of the Ravens. Decpetive speed and strenght, with a nose for the open spot of the feild. Again, sky is the limit. Mike Sellars is one of the better Full backs in the league when it comes to catching the ball out of the back field. Some of his lead blocks are incredible. He is getting better and better every game. We could expect in the red zone last year a play action up the middle to Portis with a pounding Sellars catching the ball off the left side in for a score. Weapons galore. But why wont it all work?

The o line i think has the potential to be the hogs of old, with more time and oneness. I wont go into that right now.

Why cant we get things going? We have at offensive coordinator one of the most brilliant offensive minds in the history of the NFL. I have been impressed at times this year with a play that I have never seen before and our skins run it so casually like its a halfback dive. We know he has the potential. We have seen glimpses of it before in KC, and have seen it now.

What am i getting at? Why it isnt coming together? It has at times, and it wont at times. The times it does is when Mark Brunell plays the game. When he doesnt, the offense sputters.

This is a timing offense. Brunell needs to trust that the recievers are in the right spot at the right time. Knowing where they are in every play is another factor. Collins said it took almost 5 years to learn and be comfortable with Al Saunders offensive schemes in KC. But still I am frustrated with Brunell, despite his NFL record against the Texans, ya, props big time. This is still the NFL. But I would rather him go consistent than set NFL records one game to barely getting a 100 yard passing the next.

We can't see down the feild on gameday. Unless you go to the games and have a better prospective on TV you see the pocket, the o-line and the d-line. We dont know if ARE, Cooley, Moss, Portis, Lloyd, Patten, whoever, if they are wide open down feilsd cause we cant see it. All we see is a little pressure and Brunell stiffens up, and waits for the hit. Ocasionally he scrambles when he's feeling it. MOst of the time it is a sack, or he'll scramble enough to throw it away. He plays smart, and protects the ball but come on. I understand that no one really can perform near perfect every week, but 50% of the QB's in the NFL do, and we havent had that since Brad Johnson in 1999.

You can have all the talent in the world on offense, stellar lineman, a smooth and power running game, 4 recievers with the ability to break it on any completion for 6, but without a quarterback, forget it.

Defensively, i think when Springs comes back, hes probable sunday and practiced yesterday, that will change some things. We will be able to blitz more and keep less in coverage cause we have the personel to go man on man. The backers can mirror the tight ends and running backs and send the rest. Having Rumph and Wright has killed us. All the pressure is on Rogers, a 2nd year man, with the safteys not playing loose cause of the lack of coverage. Losing Preloiu hurt us big time. It will take time, but time isnt what we have.

I bleieve in this team and I think the season will sadly continue to be what it has been. I dont see them going 8-3. I love the redskins. I would never give up on them, but until Brunell can take a little pressure off the defense to win everygame, and get the ball out of his hand to all his playmakers, i feel we will all be frustrated this whole season. I like Mark, but he needs to trust the system and throw the ball, just like he did to Moss in his 68 yard touchdown in OT against the Jags. Run the ball 25-30 times a game, and the passing game will come, in big chunks. Spreading the D doesnt do anything if you dont at least throw it. Sorry for the length of this, i just thought I would speak up. Let me know what you all think, cause I like the imput.

[dadirtbags]

Great post bulldog!!!!

the one thing I see missing is team chemistry and a lack of leadership...I have a feeling with the new players with the addition of new play calling....we wont gel until mid season...lets hope we win a few until then

[Russell Shotgun]

I hate to be the one to say this...

But who honestly thinks we'll go 4-7 from here on out???

I love the 'Skins, but I have to be objective. We won big last year because no other team respected Moss, Cooley or Portis, based on prior performance. This year, they know who our weapons are - and they gameplan accordingly. This team is headed nowhere fast. Brunell can't deliver the ball past 5 yards, Moss can only do so much, Portis is bottled up, and our defense is terrible.

There comes a point when we need to face the truth - this is a rebuilding team that got lucky last year - lucky that (1) McNabb got hurt; (2) the Falcons disinegrated; (3) Bulger got hurt; (4) the NFC North was the NFC North; (5) the NFC West (minus the Seahawks) was the NFC West.

My Point - we only have 1, maybe 2, "easy" wins remaining this year - Titans and Bucs. However, if you point to Redskins history with young q'backs and our porous pass 'D, both rookie passers could have big, big games.

But for the sake of argument, let's consider both of those games are wins, right now, leaving us 4-3. Next we have: (1) Colts; (2) Cowboys; (3) Eagles; (4) Falcons; (5) Panthers; (6) Eagles; (7) Rams; (8) Saints; (9) Giants.

(1) Colts - yeah, they have no run 'D or run 'O - but this is one of TWO undefeated teams coming off a bye week - they will be healthy, rested, and ready to play a crucial mid-season game at home. No one who has followed the Redskins this year can honestly think that Peyton Manning WON'T have a HUGE game against our terrible pass 'D, with or without Springs. We are going up against the best QB in recent history with extremely talented receivers. This game is a loss, no matter how you analyze it.

(2) Cowboys - we have them at home, but they still have an incredibly strong WR corps, and a QB who - without any pressure (which we can't give) - can deliver the ball with poise. Our O-line can't block their 3-4 defense and Brunell is going to get eaten alive at home against a team in the playoff hunt, hungry to vindicate last years failures.

(3) Eagles - McNabb, McNabb, McNabb. When healthy - best QB in the league next to Peyton Manning. Great o-line means strong protection and McNabb gets all day to send the ball to young, fast receivers. REMEMBER - we barely beat the Eagles last year with McMahon - not McNabb - behind center.

(4) Falcons - the way they are running the ball, the unpredictability and talent of Vick, and the strong Defense led by Abraham and D'Hall means a long day for the 'Skins. Watch how the played week one with everyone healthy against the Panthers. Even at half strength we are in trouble. Vick will pick us apart - either with quick, short passes against our weak pass defense, or against elusive runs with Dunn and Norwood against our slow-to-respond front 7. The Falcons will be in the hunt for a division championship and will show no mercy.

(5) Panthers - '89 v. '89 - Moss v. Smith. The difference is that Smith is catching balls from a pro-bowl QB protected by a strong O-line, whereas Moss is trying to catch dump-offs from a past-his-prime QB, who will be under relentless pressue from the NFL's best defensive lineman - Julius Peppers - who is going to have his way with Jansen, with Brunell and with Portis, too. Maybe Moss can recover some of Brunell's fumbles and turn them into big games. But objectively, this is going to be a tough loss for our beloved 'Skins. Don't overlook their 3-2 record - they are 3-0 since Smith and their receiving corp is intact.

(6) Eagles - (see #3)

(7) Rams - 4-1 team. Stephen Jackson is leading the NFL in rushing. Bulger is headed for another pro-bowl. Ignore our win in St.Louis last year against a rookie Harvard-QB. This is a team that went stride-for-stride with the Broncos, one of the best teams out there. By the time they meet the 'Skins, they will be holding onto the NFC West lead.

(8) Saints - are you kidding me?? The Texans made a HUGE mistake not taking Reggie Bush - not because of what Bush can do - but because of what the rest of the team can do with Bush on the field. Bush is the rare type of electrifying player that will be on nearly every highlight reel for the next few years. He makes Brees, Duece, Horn and Colston (what a pickup) 10-times better. This is a team playing inspired football, and the playcalling and gameplanning of Sean Payton has been fantastic, and will likely continue to be. The 'Skins play the saints in the Superdome, for our last road game of the year, right around X-Mas. This will be one of the toughest games of the year.

(9) - it all ends with the Giants. Maybe we can stop Tiki this time around. Maybe our pass defense can stop Eli Manning as he comes into his own. Maybe the Giants will have secured the NFC East title or #2 playoff seed and will be resting their starters. That's probably the only chance we have for a win.

I would like to point out - I am not a 'Skins hater - just a realist. I love the Skins and wear my jerseys with pride every week, but I have to be objective when I review the performance and likely success. That's what being a true, informed fan is all about.

With that in mind, let's look at our 2 wins:

(1) Texans - come on. JV team. Yet they torched us on a couple long plays. We should have shut them out, but they still embarrased our pass defense - and that garbage-time INT for Wright doesn't count.

(2) Jaguars - Brunell's best game - why? - revenge against the team that realized what we haven't. Great game-planning to take out the Jags' defensive tackles and stuff their run defense. But Leftwich carved apart our pass defense. That game should never have gone into overtime - we allowed them to stay around and make it interesting.

Also - don't tell me the Jags are great cause they beat the Steelers. The Steelers suck this year. Their only win came against 1-4 Miami. Rothlesburger sucks this year, and yet the Jags could still only get 3 field goals. Then they played the 'Skins and carved us up for 30 points. The win over Pittsburgh gives the Jags no credit.

(3) The Play - Brunell's OT pass to Moss. - Let's look at it closely. This was a BAD pass by Brunell that Moss realized, jumped the route - causing the safety to overshoot - disrupted the corner's coverage and sped away for the win. This should have been a loss. That ball should have been intercepted by the Jacksonville corners - thank God that Moss is such a playmaker. That play was all Moss.

HERE'S MY POINT - it is going to be unbelievably difficult for the 'Skins to go 10-6, much less make the playoffs. I can't stand the spin from Redskins.com when they overemphasize every win and downplay every loss. This is a team with a new offensive coaching staff, with a QB who is ready to walk away, a pass defense plauged by injuries, and an untested twice-redshirted rookie waiting to step in and try to be the leader.

Let's not kid ourselves. The Redskins, marring a historic playoff run, won't be playing in January. They beat the worst team in the league, and the most-overrated team in the league this season. I can only hope we don't trade away our top-10 draft pick this year.

Mark my words.

-Disgruntled.

[nh48932]

Hey, guys... first post.

Gotta agree with so many of Bulldog's points, but I remain an optimist. I don't want to reek of Kool-aid, but I have to have some faith in the Hall of Fame argument. I know Gibbs' has spoken of leaving if he doesn't produce here, but I can't see a guy with his background of success simply abandoning this team, or worse, leaving it worse than when he arrived. To be a fan, I feel I have to trust Gibbs - even if it means waiting a year or two to see the benefits. It's easy to dissect some of the recent results of five games and attack the off-season signings. TJ Duckett, where are you? But I think we've got the core ingredients to put together a winning team - it just might have to change character a bit. The defense is clearly not, this year, going to be the dominant force it has been. But with some ramped up effort in the backfield, with the return on Shawn Springs (who I do not think will singlehandedly rescue us), we have a chance to hang on a a middle-range defense. Adjusting to that role will be difficult, I think; it'll demand more from an offense that hasn't gelled yet. But let's have some faith in our staff; there is no real indication that Gregg Williams has fallen down on the job, as some people suggest. If they are playing like this next year, I'll conceed that this was the year that started them on the path. However, I like to think that in a character-built team, with good, smart players, we're simply witnessing the process of them learning to play together. Both our lines have done their job well enough to indicate that with healthy players, they can hold strong through December, but the defensive backfield must step up if we're going to force other teams to play our way, ie. not putting up so many points. If we limit most our remaining games (starting primarily with the potent Indy offense) to our current scoring level (10's to 20's for an average game) we can do okay this season. That happens by creating some pressure on visiting QB's at home, with our twelfth man, and taking it to them early to get a rythm going; conservative play won't cut it at this point. As mentioned by others, we have divisional home-games to close out the season, which is a big benefit to catch these guys with an edge late, when we've had maximum time to make our complicated coaching resonate. My biggest criticism is probably the Joe Gibbs-as-CEO decision; was this to stroke the ego of Al Saunders? Wasn't bringing him here at $XX Million enough to keep him motivated and show we had faith in his principles? To me, it suggests to both team and fans that Joe Gibbs isn't confident in himself, when that's exactly the opposite of logic; JG has more reason than anyone coaching today to believe he can take this group of players places, but his conservative, wishy-washy decision-making undermines the message we want to send.

HTTR

cheers guys!

[Betterman]

:applause: Excellent post bulldog...finally some good reading. thx for making it a sticky so i didnt have to search the rest of the threads!

[fansince62]

very nice post.

a few other thoughts.

- one last arrington thought...whatever else (the drama, the me first mindset, his thirst for money)....he did bring an energy level to the defense that was palpable. you could see it. this defense is now a bunch of comical tomahawks after the random and infrequent good play

- there is a distinct absence of physical presence on the defense. beyond ST there are no "bad boys" on this defense. and I include MW in the bunch. he's above average...but not among league elites at this point. it's not just Holdman as you correctly point out...the entire LB corps has been distinguished for its mediocrity thus far.

- no point dwelling further on the pass rush....a problem we have allknown about for....oh...years now? chalk this one up to pathetic drafting/horrendous personnel management.

- it is the latter that seems to be the core problem. in my mind, it just never seems like the Skins have a single controlling vision that guides personnel management. there is no "personality" to this team that carries through to the draft and FA signings year in and year out. too much change. too much turinover. too much crisis personnel management. THERE IS NO BRIGHT LIGHT SITTING BEHIND ALL OF THIS PULLING THE STRINGS.

- the offense? who knows. I am having a hard time figuring this one out. it should be better. from a distance...it appears that we are not quite dominant enough at the tackles and MB cannot function well when under pressure. it's tough getting a bead on MB.......but he just doesn't seem to be quite all there......it's very evident when you watch the other, better QBs in the league. he seems in there not to hurt the team. it's almost as if the playcalling is intentionally conservative to account for his limitations. let's continue to fall back on the assumption that we have new pieces, that the offense is still being learned and that the running game isn't quite there yet but on the verge. folks should be worried that we have next to no mid-range to down-field passing game...that makes it a whole lot easier for defenses to apply pressure elsewhere.

the defense needs to be restocked pure and simple.

[bird_1972]

Bulldog, your post demonstrates why it is silly of us to flush away all these draft picks for veterans. We need to grow our talent instead of trying to plug in guys who get the signing bonuses and can just mail it in. The "win now" approach is a bust and we need to cut our losses and rely on the draft, beginning in 2008. I say that because we lack second- and third-round picks in 2007. As much as I love the Redskins, we're not a good football team right now and the approach we've taken -- which "coincidently" began when Junior took over the team -- has been an abysmal failure. Someone, somewhere in the organization needs to stand up and demand serious changes and fast. We'll be lucky to get even a whiff of the playoffs this season.

As always, stwasm:

:applause: :applause: :applause: