Redskins Have to Go 8-3 From Here Forward

[bulldog]

In order to have a realistic shot at the playoffs the club has to play .720 ball the rest of the way to finish 10-6. The loss to the Vikings could be especially costly given that they may be a team looking to stay in the wildcard race.

What is going to make this year more difficult than 2005 is the state of the NFC. The conference is tougher this year and the division clubs are better.

Already the Cowboys and Giants have blown out the Skins and the Eagles at 4-1 seem a candidate for comeback team after an injury riddled season last year.

The Redskins are beating the tomato-can teams on the schedule like Houstona and will likely cruise past the Titans, but in the end staying near .500 with these kinds of wins isn't really fooling anyone, least of all the Skins' opponents.

The Cowboys and Giants both seem to have a better knowledge of the Redskins offensive playbook and schemes than some members of this offense do.

Every tendency from last year has been dissected and analyzed.

The Portis stretch runs and delayed handoffs aren't working. Cooley is being covered by capable defenders this time around. Moss isn't being given any room and opponents seem to have the passing game nailed down to 4 or 5 plays run over and over again with some disguised movement the only change up.

The receivers opposite Moss either can't get open or Brunell never looks for them. Lloyd, ARE and Patten are collectively costing the team THIS much for catching 7 or 8 balls so far? :laugh:

No wonder Antonio Pierce said on Sunday he knew exactly what was coming and when. The Redskins have 5 or 6 potential weapons on offense but depend upon two, Portis and Moss, to make all the plays, and largely on their own.

ARE, Lloyd and Patten as said have hardly been heard from. Cooley outside of the JAX game has been a non-factor in the passing game. Betts beat up on the woeful Texans but hasn't shown much in the other games. Duckett has been inactive.

One can't help but think that these players as a group (even without Portis and Moss) could be productive ON THEIR OWN as a skill group on another NFL team.

On defense the fine free agent class of 2004 that gave us 3 anchors for the defense, Griffin, Washington and Springs has been followed by perhaps the worst free agent class since the Spurrier years in 2006.

The right side of the Redskins defense has been awful and Andre Carter, Warrick Holdman and Adam Archuleta figure prominently in a lot of the breakdowns and failures to make plays.

Carter woke up for two quarters against the Jaguars but otherwise has been a bust as a rush end.

Holdman is in better shape and can now run sideline to sideline but still doesn't make enough plays for a weakside linebacker in the 4-3. This is supposed to be the playmaking position in this defense. Holdman is far too quiet.

Archuleta in retrospect was a player that perhaps we didn't really need. We did need a rush end. We did need a third corner. We did need depth at DT.

We really didn't need a $30 million safety. We could have signed Clark for a lot less and maintained some basic continuity. Yes at 5'11 and 175 he wasn't the ideal physique to play safety for Gregg Williams, but a clear asset was his ability in coverage in the middle of the field, a clear liabillity for Archuleta who seems uncomfortable more than 5 yards off the line of scrimmage.

Kenny Wright has shown me to be wrong and others here to be right. One guy that said he lived in JAX and watched all 16 Jags games and indicated Wright was washed up certainly seems more on the mark than we thought back in April.

The injury to Springs was going to hurt this team regardless of the #3 corner we had in waiting. Nobody has pro bowl caliber backups in the era of free agency.

But the Redskins sure could have used a solid coverman that made the routine plays and occasionally came up with the big play or two.

This defensive backfield is beginning to remind me of the 1983 Pearl Harbor Crew so named because they kept getting bombed each week with Jeris White and Joe Lavender having retired and Tony Peters having been arrested for cocaine possession in training camp.

The only problem is THAT team had no other discernible weaknesses while this team is leaking water from a number of holes.

Going back to the top line of the post, the team has to go 8-3 from here on out unless current NFC teams all go on a nice losing streak (I don't really see an 8-8 team getting in this year as the 1999 Cowboys did).

What seems apparent to me through 5 games is the same heart and toughness we saw last year in those last 7 games isn't present on this club, at least not yet.

That team would not have lost the opener against a beatable opponent. Nor would it have lost to Dallas in a laugher on national television.

It's not that the Redskins lost in Dallas or NY but the WAY the club lost.

There was little fight in this team in Dallas at all and in NY the fight lasted for just a half.

A win against the Vikings and a decent showing in Dallas and NY would have this team at 3-2 with a chance to go 4-2 against another tomato can opponent.

Completely different ball game. But then we would be talking about a different team.

Perhaps in the end Joe Gibbs firing himself in the offseason was more of a blow to this team than anyone thought.

Al Saunders and Gregg Williams may be outstanding coaches but in the end this game is about emotion and motivation as well as talent and schemes.

In the second half of 2005, Gibbs seemed to have the chemistry with Portis, Moss, Cooley and the other players on a personal level. He bled to keep this team in the race and capable of recovering to be a contender.

Al Saunders for all his ability is probably not that kind of leader. And that's why he hasn't been a candidate for a major head coaching position in the NFL.

[Tarhog]

Thats a helluva post Bulldog.

I won't give up on this team, despite agreeing with nearly every point you make. Gibbs has a way of turning a team that looks on the brink of disaster around. Can he do it again? I don't know. I hope - thats all I can muster.

This team's like a great recipe that the cooks just couldn't stop screwing with....adding some more salt here, extra spice there, a little too much vinegar... next thing you know, you've ruined it.

What I want to feel from here on out is anger. A little rage. A little indignation. A little fire. I don't sense the emotion in these guys. Last year, they couldn't get it together until they HAD to get it together. Well guess what Redskins? You've reached that point 4 games early this year. You've got to get it together NOW.

Can they? I don't know. But I won't say its impossible. Because I thought it was impossible last year.

You've got it right though - they are up against it. We'll see what this team and coach are really made of now.

[Tarhog]

Stickied.....as an example of an outstanding post.

[Tastes Like Chicken]

I agree with the comments above.

I see us losing @Colts, @Eagles, and a home game vs. either the Falcons or Panthers.

Any way you look at it, we have to be very good for the next few games and perfect in December.

To do that, we need to turn it around now, and look past no one. Starting with the Titans, because even if we split the next 2 games before the bye, our backs are against the wall.

[hail2skins]

Another grade A post from the Dawg.

Thing is, when you look at it, we did play rather badly at Dallas (for the first 55 minutes) and at New York last year as well. But I really didn't expect a total repeat of those games this season. And certainly not the same offensive inconsistency......there's just no excuse.

I'm not giving up on this team, but when people have to resort to predictions of again running the table in the last 6-7 to make the playoffs, you know you're not even a quasi-elite club. And that's what I think we were hoping for coming into the season.

[SonnyJ]

The thought came to me after the game yesterday and I saw Om touched on it in his halftime thoughts - this team seems to be VERY passive until someone makes a play, especially offensively. This gets magnified when the team is on the road. Think about the three division road games from last season, and the first two this year. They all followed the same script - tight and conservative from the opening snap. Now, they were fortunate to come away with victories in two of those three games, but the other guys had them on their heels from the get-go. They fell behind by double digits in all of those games.

I would love it if, for once, this team came out steamrolling from the opening snap. Attacking, being the aggressor. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn't, but DICTATE to the other team. Make them react to you, not the other way around.

I'm not going to get into the player acquisition side of this. Yeah, they haven't looked good, but the defense as a whole hasn't been sparkling either. Even Washington, Griffen, and Taylor have looked less than overwhelming. On offense, the WRs can make plays, but they have to have opportunities in order to do it. WR is the most dependent position on the field - if the OL isn't blocking or the QB isn't getting them the ball, then it's hard to evaluate how they are playing.

There's a tall order ahead of this team. The maddening inconsistency has to get ironed out. I believe a more aggressive nature from the outset can help the offense a lot. And I do believe the defense will come around, especially with the return of Springs.

As Tarhog said, all we really have right now is hope, but I have no doubt that this team CAN compete with any team in the league. Provided they bring the right attitude to the table.

[SantanaClaus89]

That was a great post... it pains me to read it and realize that every point you made is absolutely true.

I've thought from day one that after last season, Gibbs' offense didn't need fixing. It just needed another legitimate WR or two. That's all. Instead Gibbs completely shook everything up and that worried me a little from the start, although I couldn't help but get caught up in the hype like everyone else.

I think the additions of Andre Carter and AA were both mistakes, but the Archuleta signing drives me MAD! Ryan Clark was a totally capable player who was comfortable in coverage, and comfortable playing alongside Sean Taylor. The Redskins should have kept him for much less money that what was paid to Archuleta and the defense would be better as a unit right now. :doh:

Well, it's gut-check time now for our beloved 'Skins... I'm not going to give up on them yet, but something's got to give here, PDQ!

[bleedburgundyandgold]

A very well reasoned post. I too fear the CEO coach model is not working. Football is not a democracy. Someone needs to be in charge and right now I'm not sure who it is.

I also don't understand all of Gibbs' nail-biting and face-hiding on the sidelines. I don't remember that from the first run. Nerves, sure. But never like this. And where are the inspired halftime adjustments?

Gibbs is clearly coaching scared like the thought of losing is too much for him to bear, too much for him to do what it takes to WIN a division game on the road against a desperate, rested foe.

And that means taking some smart chances, going on fourth and short, committing to pounding it on third and one, NOT going to one wideout sets with Thrash. He's got to step in and overrule in those situations and make the gutsy call.

I feel like Gibbs is worried (and apparently rightly so) that this year will get away from him and he will find something he's never known before: failure. He said from the outset this would be a three year project and if he hadn't gotten it done by then, well, that would probably be it.

Well, its year three. And this team is in serious danger of dropping out of contention early.

Herer's my hope: A big win over the Titans followed by a stirring road win over Indy begins to turn things around and then Gibbs finds his voice again and takes over this team like only he can late in the season. And with a healthy Springs we make a strong run into the post season.

At this point, however, given the weakness of our high dollar offseason pickups and the gaping holes in the defense, I fear the reality is more likely to be a seesaw season leading to a 8-8, 7-9 finish and a sad end to Gibbs II.

That could lead to a very dark era until we get a new owner and front office who understand that you can't give away every draft pick and pay every overrated free agent multi-millions and cut loose major team leaders and hope to build a a consistently good, cohesive football team that will challenge for the playoffs every year.

[Jumbo]

Outstanding work, Bulldog, truly well done. :applause: And it comes from a balanced critic and fan, with appropriate humility, not a habitually negative Madden-child with an overdeveloped sense of self-appreciation, or some mono-thematic player-basher, or some all-will-be-well Gibbs-is-God kool-aid kidd. How refreshing to read.

I'm still keeping an open mind that this staff and these players (inculding our "busts") still have positive depths to be plumbed; that there are offensive schemes yet to evolve and become better understood and executed, and that this team’s heart will become as obviously visible as it was last year. I hope all this is what happens, because that's what is going to take for us to get where we want to be.

[PapaRora]

Vince Young, T. Henry, and the T Defense looked mighty good last week.

I wouldnt underestimate them Titans.

[FunBunch7]

Right now the problem is on defense.

This is the same team that ran up and down on the Jags, a team that has recorded 2 shut outs this season. We simply had a bad game offensively vs. the Giants but that happens to every team in the NFL at some point. We'll get better vs. Tennessee and then gear up for the Colts.

We need to do MUCH MUCH more on defense. Sitting back allows us to get picked apart. We have to blitz like crazy and force something. Doing this WILL indeed cause us to give up some big plays but that is better than giving a team an 8 minute drive coming out from half time.

[FedExFielder]

Excellent post my man, a good read

[redskins55]

In order to have a realistic shot at the playoffs the club has to play .720 ball the rest of the way to finish 10-6. The loss to the Vikings could be especially costly given that they may be a team looking to stay in the wildcard race.

A win against the Vikings and a decent showing in Dallas and NY would have this team at 3-2 with a chance to go 4-2 against another tomato can opponent.

I'll chime in on these 2...

#1. It's quite possible that we can go 8-3 but don't look at it that way. We are competing against our division and who is to say 10-6 is what you need in the NFC East? Look at the schedules the rest of the way, if any team is 9-7 that' s a miracle. Our divisional foes will suffer some losses...

#2. The loss at home to Minny was rectified when we beat the 12-4 Jaguars. Now our goal is to win the games we are supposed to win. If we defend our house by winng our home games and beat 2/5 teams on the road (Bucs, Rams,Indy, Eagles and Saints) , we will be right where most of us predicted. 10-6

There is room for concern because of the lack of intensity and execution, but that was being said last year before we went 6-0! No need to panic, lets just see how the NFC East plays out. Remember, all our 2nd divisional games are at home just like last year!

[OtherBrotherE]

Right now the problem is on defense.

This is the same team that ran up and down on the Jags, a team that has recorded 2 shut outs this season. We simply had a bad game offensively vs. the Giants but that happens to every team in the NFL at some point. We'll get better vs. Tennessee and then gear up for the Colts.

We need to do MUCH MUCH more on defense. Sitting back allows us to get picked apart. We have to blitz like crazy and force something. Doing this WILL indeed cause us to give up some big plays but that is better than giving a team an 8 minute drive coming out from half time.

I agree, the D didn't look terribly sharp - but I thought the red zone defense was one of a precious few highlights of the game. Given that the Skins offense couldn't put together a sustained drive (other than one field goal and one we just penalized ourselves right out of), I think the defense held their own - given how long they were stuck on the field. To play opposite an offense that couldn't even generate 200 yards and struggled to get 3 points on the board ... holding the opponents to a TD and 4 field goals is not a bad showing.

I'm with those of you who weren't feeling the emotion, though. I noticed that against the Vikings - it seemed like neither team actually wanted to win. I was excited that I saw the fire in pretty much everybody's eyes against JAX - that was a great game, not only because of the outcome but because both teams obviously WANTED that "W". It was painfully clear by about mid-way through the second quarter that the Giants wanted this game way more than we did.

I think if Coach Gibbs, CP, and the leaders of this team can find a way to get the fire back, the rest will fall into place. We have the talent. We have the playbook. We have (or at least had) the chemistry. Once the players and the coaches are convinced that they can - and should - win these games, the playcalling will get gutsier, the passes will get more aggressive, blocks will get harder ... and so on, and so on.

My :2cents:

[Blondie]

Oooooooooooooo..............bulldog.

I like it!!!

Great post.

Blondie

[budski]

Sorry I dont see anything positive about this team at this point. I still enjoy watching them, but they dont impress me anymore. Saunders is making things to complicated, and Williams has lost his edge in calling the right defenses.

[C.Taylor]

What really puts us up against it is that our last AFC games this season are in the next two weeks. After that, nine NFC games. With three NFC losses already, we'll need some help to make the playoffs with a 10-6 record.

Nevertheless, we root on.

[Art Monk Fan]

What really puts us up against it is that our last AFC games this season are in the next two weeks. After that, nine NFC games. With three NFC losses already, we'll need some help to make the playoffs with a 10-6 record.

Nevertheless, we root on.

What's amazing about this statement is that the last two years Gibbs was winless against AFC teams. Had the Skins beaten San Diego or Oakland at home last year, they'd have won the division.

Maybe this is one hidden benefit of Al Saunders coming over to Washington from the AFC?

[stwasm]

Bulldog, your post demonstrates why it is silly of us to flush away all these draft picks for veterans. We need to grow our talent instead of trying to plug in guys who get the signing bonuses and can just mail it in. The "win now" approach is a bust and we need to cut our losses and rely on the draft, beginning in 2008. I say that because we lack second- and third-round picks in 2007. As much as I love the Redskins, we're not a good football team right now and the approach we've taken -- which "coincidently" began when Junior took over the team -- has been an abysmal failure. Someone, somewhere in the organization needs to stand up and demand serious changes and fast. We'll be lucky to get even a whiff of the playoffs this season.

[kleese]

First of all, excellent post bulldog.

Two Retorts:

1. I agree on the 8-3 thing, BUT......I don't think we should look at it that way. I think the goal should be to "hang around" and then hope to make another December run. I said in another thread that I'd like to be 7-6 and then take our chances those final three games. My hope is by then we will have "gelled" more and might have a leg up on teams like the Saints and Rams who may have come back down to earth by then. In order to get to 7-6, we need to go 5-3 over the next 8-- much more reasonable.

2. I think people forget VERY quickly where we were when Gibbs arrived. Following the Spurrier disaster, I'd say the Redskins were at the lowest point I've ever seen them. Yes, lower than any Norv year. I had lost ALL hope.

In comes Gibbs. The man is in his 60's. He was entering a disgraced franchise. In many ways, I think he had no choice but to try for a quick turnaround. We all know his window here is small, so he has tried to build a winner from scratch very quickly. Late last year, it all came together and things looked good. Now, it looks messy again. I think there is a chance it all comes together again and I think there is a chance it slowly fades away. But I'm really not going to rip the guy for the way he approached the roster.

One thing is for sure-- this is NOT the Joe Gibbs we saw the first time around. Just not the same guy. I think he wants to restore the Redskins TOO badly. He seems way too nervous and I think it plays itself out w/ poor on-field calls and bad decisions on who to play.

I'm not quite ready to pack it in yet because I do think there is a possibility this team can explode down the road. However, it does seem less likely each week right now. And I would agree that we are on an 8-8 path. And if we finish 8-8, I don't see ANY way Joe Gibbs is the coach next year.

[Raub]

A couple of things have stuck out to me:

We don't take risks. At all. Brunell seems to refuse to throw anything down the middle of the field unless it's a 5 yard dumpoff. It looked like the Giants just played outside position on our WRs and basically took away the passing game like that. It kills me when I see people running free all over the middle of the field against our D, and getting 3rd and longs converted like that....yet I can't remember one deep pass we've thrown that wasn't to the sidelines.

Second part of risk taking is on the coaches. If you're down by 13 on the road to a division opponent in the 2nd half and your team has been lifeless all day....why settle for a 42yd FG ATTEMPT. Hall is about fitty/fitty from that distance. If he makes it, you're still down by 2 scores. If he misses....what little momentum you had is gone and then some. But....if you at least try to convert the 4th and 1 you're showing faith in your offense to get it done.

Lastly...I don't understand the Ladell Betts thing. Yes, he's a good back, but he does nothing different or better than Portis. I'm no football genius, but I think a second back should be a change of pace....a quicker guy, a bigger guy, a speed demon, whatever. Betts is like a less talented clone of Portis. Throw Duckett in there and let him pound away for a few plays. Loosen up the D, then bring Portis back. I just don't get the Betts love affair, especially with a guy like Duckett riding the pine.

I would comment on our defense, but I don't want to wear my keyboard out today. They aren't playing up to their potential, that's for sure.

Oh and....great post Bulldog! :applause:

[TheLongshot]

Right now, I'd say that no one on defense is playing very well. Even the guys who were hits aren't playing very well. The closest is Washington and Taylor, but Taylor is also making some big mistakes.

The front line, in particular, isn't doing that good of a job. They aren't stuffing the run like they used to, and they aren't getting pressure on the QB.

As for the offense, they still seem to be feeling their way through it. I agree with others that they need to be more agressive. It seems like they have one general plan: lean on the running game and the passing game will come. Problem is, once you are behind, it doesn't put you in the position of being able to catch up.

Jason

[jeronimobrat]

A very well reasoned post. I too fear the CEO coach model is not working. Football is not a democracy. Someone needs to be in charge and right now I'm not sure who it is.

I also don't understand all of Gibbs' nail-biting and face-hiding on the sidelines. I don't remember that from the first run. Nerves, sure. But never like this. And where are the inspired halftime adjustments?

Gibbs is clearly coaching scared like the thought of losing is too much for him to bear, too much for him to do what it takes to WIN a division game on the road against a desperate, rested foe.

And that means taking some smart chances, going on fourth and short, committing to pounding it on third and one, NOT going to one wideout sets with Thrash. He's got to step in and overrule in those situations and make the gutsy call.

I feel like Gibbs is worried (and apparently rightly so) that this year will get away from him and he will find something he's never known before: failure. He said from the outset this would be a three year project and if he hadn't gotten it done by then, well, that would probably be it.

Well, its year three. And this team is in serious danger of dropping out of contention early.

Herer's my hope: A big win over the Titans followed by a stirring road win over Indy begins to turn things around and then Gibbs finds his voice again and takes over this team like only he can late in the season. And with a healthy Springs we make a strong run into the post season.

At this point, however, given the weakness of our high dollar offseason pickups and the gaping holes in the defense, I fear the reality is more likely to be a seesaw season leading to a 8-8, 7-9 finish and a sad end to Gibbs II.

That could lead to a very dark era until we get a new owner and front office who understand that you can't give away every draft pick and pay every overrated free agent multi-millions and cut loose major team leaders and hope to build a a consistently good, cohesive football team that will challenge for the playoffs every year.

:applause: I will second that notion

:logo:

[bmpuglez]

I see understand and agree with almost everything said in the origional post. But does anyone feel some sort of optimism here? It sounds insane but I just remember sliding in the middle of the season last year and coming back in dramatic fashion. What's to say that that's not what's happening now? I know I kind of have the rose colored glasses on, but why not. Not to say 13-3 here we come, but Gibbs, as was written earlier, has a way of turning things around. He can motivate and I think he's going to put all of his efforts into creating that chemistry with everyone and lighting a fire under the butts of a bunch of guys out there. As for the logistics of it, way too many amateur coaches on here are taking care of that for us.

[SonnyJ]

A couple of things have stuck out to me:

We don't take risks. At all. Brunell seems to refuse to throw anything down the middle of the field unless it's a 5 yard dumpoff. It looked like the Giants just played outside position on our WRs and basically took away the passing game like that. It kills me when I see people running free all over the middle of the field against our D, and getting 3rd and longs converted like that....yet I can't remember one deep pass we've thrown that wasn't to the sidelines.

Second part of risk taking is on the coaches. If you're down by 13 on the road to a division opponent in the 2nd half and your team has been lifeless all day....why settle for a 42yd FG ATTEMPT. Hall is about fitty/fitty from that distance. If he makes it, you're still down by 2 scores. If he misses....what little momentum you had is gone and then some. But....if you at least try to convert the 4th and 1 you're showing faith in your offense to get it done.

Lastly...I don't understand the Ladell Betts thing. Yes, he's a good back, but he does nothing different or better than Portis. I'm no football genius, but I think a second back should be a change of pace....a quicker guy, a bigger guy, a speed demon, whatever. Betts is like a less talented clone of Portis. Throw Duckett in there and let him pound away for a few plays. Loosen up the D, then bring Portis back. I just don't get the Betts love affair, especially with a guy like Duckett riding the pine.

Great points here. It's possible to be TOO risk-averse. A lot of teams seem to have as part of their strategy to get the ball out there - if nothing else, maybe you can draw a penalty flag. The Redskins try to avoid situations where anything negative can happen. That's great, but you can miss the upside, too. No turnovers against the Giants, and a completely stagnant offense. At least make the defense make a play.

That 4th and 1 was just the wrong call. I think we all felt that way even before Hall missed it. There was no real benefit to a 3-pointer at that stage - two scores were still needed and a FG wouldn't have been much of a momentum-builder. The Giants would still have been comfortably ahead.

But Gibbs has always been like that. I remember when he resigned the first time. Part of me was actually happy because I was getting tired of his conservative ways. The Redskins would get the ball back in their territory before halftime with plenty of time and timeouts remaining. But they would just sit on the ball - it drove me NUTS. Ever since Rocket Screen, though, that was Gibbs' MO - don't give the other team momentum. I can't stand his conservative bent sometimes, but you gotta take the good with the bad, I suppose. Those twelve years w/o him tend to make one more forgiving of his "shortcomings" .

And I agree on the Betts comments, too. He's more of a fresh set of legs than a different back than Portis. He's a better receiver than CP, but doesn't have CP's vision and determination.