I think you're right. Here's the timeline:
Snyder drafts the most-hyped QB early in the first round. Everyone on ESPN praises it as a great pick that will make the team instantly relevant.
Snyder trades away Heinicke so he won't be looking over the shoulder of the new QB. Learned his lesson from the RG3/Cousins era!
The new QB starts immediately, and it quickly becomes apparent that he is far from NFL-ready.
The defense continues to underachieve compared to the talent invested.
We finish the 2022 season at 5-12 or worse.
Rivera and Del Rio get fired, but most of the position coaches are kept on.
Snyder picks a head coach who is known for developing QBs, but isn't considered a serious HC candidate. His sole mandate: develop the QB.
The QB does not develop. He gets benched towards the end of the season.
We finish the 2023 season 4-13 or worse.