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Election 2018 Thread (An Adult Finally Has the Gavel)


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Fox & Friends First thought they booked pro-ICE Democratic congressional candidate Ann Kirkpatrick to appear on the show on Monday morning. Instead, they somehow ended up with Barbara L’Italien.

After the hosts kicked it to “Kirkpatrick” and asked her to explain why she supports ICE, L’Italien — a Democratic state senator in Massachusetts who is running for Congress — delivered a very different personal message to President Trump.

https://thinkprogress.org/barbara-litalien-ann-kirkpatrick-fox-and-friends-family-separation-88ad05276693/

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22 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

Wait she was "uncomfortable" because she was surrounded by people were tired of being angry? HUH?

 

I thought it was funny because as she was talking about it, her voice was shaking and her answers made no sense.  It was like she went to a gay pride parade, enjoyed it, but now has to lie to her church congregation about it. :ols:

 

 

 

 

More from the Sabato Crystal Ball update:

 

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

 

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Why the Democrats are now soft favorites in the House


As soon as President Donald Trump was elected, the national political dynamics immediately changed. Democrats, somnolent in off-year elections in the Obama years (and also in 2016, at least in some key places), would re-energize. The historical burden of holding the White House transferred to the Republicans, and the president’s party has lost ground in 36 of 39 House midterms since the Civil War with an average loss of 33 seats. In the more recent past, since the end of World War II, the average seat loss is 26 seats, or right on the borderline of the 23 net seats the Democrats need to elect a House majority.

 

That average includes years where the presidential party broke the historical trend and netted a few seats (1998 and 2002) or lost only a relative handful (1962 and 1990). But the presidents who presided over those midterms were popular and had other factors working in their favor. This president is not popular, and no one believes there is any chance the Republicans come out of this election with more seats than they hold now. Even just a single-digit GOP seat loss would be shocking, an outcome driven by late developments unforeseeable at this juncture.

 

Yet, to this point, we’ve hesitated to come out and make the Democrats a favorite in the House. The Republicans have strong incumbents in some of their most vulnerable seats, and the national House map has a GOP tilt: By margin, the median House district is about four percentage points to the right of the nation based on district-level results from the 2016 presidential election. The economy is good — or, rather, baseline economic indicators are good even though there is a compelling argument that the nation’s economic gains have been unevenly distributed in recent times — and the nation is not engaged in a major foreign conflict. Recessions and war can hurt the president’s party in midterms, although their absence also does not guarantee a lack of turbulence, as any glance at national headlines these days would confirm.

 

So what’s changed? Why do we now tilt the House to the Democrats?

 

Well, part of the reason is simply this: In actuality, not much has changed throughout the cycle. That, in and of itself, is a problem for Republicans.

Election Day is getting closer, and the president’s approval rating is still largely stuck in the low 40s, a big red warning sign that has bedeviled the party of similarly-situated presidents in past midterms. The House generic ballot, which has generally been at around a Democratic lead of between six to eight points, is at the higher end of that range right now. But more importantly for the House battle, for most of this election cycle the generic ballot has shown a consistent Democratic lead that suggests a very competitive battle for the majority. A high number of open seats — the highest number of any postwar election save 1992 — give Democrats many more targets than the GOP (Republicans are defending 41 seats without an incumbent, while Democrats are defending only 22).

 

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13 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

I thought it was funny because as she was talking about it, her voice was shaking and her answers made no sense.  It was like she went to a gay pride parade, enjoyed it, but now has to lie to her church congregation about it. :ols:

 

 

Yeah you can totally see right through Fox's attempt to paint a narrative of the "angry socialists trying to take down capitalism" in order to counter the hate & vitriol clearly displayed at Trump rallies.  Another false moral equivalency attempt. 

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On 7/23/2018 at 4:08 PM, FanboyOf91 said:

 

Most African Americans are conservative democrats.... Believe in taking care of all, but not full blown hard left.... Mostly because I think of the Christian background as well.... Being a Baptist personally has me always being a slightly conservative Democrat bcos I know they will fight for minorities as well not just cater to majorities like some party does and say **** everyone else

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19 minutes ago, FanboyOf91 said:

Honestly, I think progressives do a terrible job of both communicating AND (this is important) forming political relationships with black leaders. Bernie lost when he decided that he couldn't reach out to Southern black voters.

 

Progressives have not really had a charismatic leader with a national profile yet.  When that person emerges, I think what you said in your post will change.  For now, I agree 100%.

 

I mean seriously, the flag bearers are Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren?  Coupla old white folks, one an angry weirdo, the other a career Harvard academic.  

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2 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

Progressives have not really had a charismatic leader with a national profile yet.  When that person emerges, I think what you said in your post will change. 

Charisma's got nothing to do with it. Cuomo is a charisma black hole but he's probably going to get the majority of black voters unless Nixon decides to move out of her comfort zone of educated white voters.

 

Seriously, progressives, treating black voters like white voters isn't that hard.

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4 minutes ago, FanboyOf91 said:

Charisma's got nothing to do with it. Cuomo is a charisma black hole but he's probably going to get the majority of black voters unless Nixon decides to move out of her comfort zone of educated white voters.

 

Seriously, progressives, treating black voters like white voters isn't that hard.

 

Cynthia Nixon isn't exactly JFK.  

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"Progressive" or "Liberal" is really just code for what Democrats used to stand for before they had to keep continually shifting right after the Reagan revolution.   Every since trickle down policy was put into place, any time it is attempted to reverse it, the cries of "socialism, communism, general mao" are screamed at, despite the fact that it was actually Reagan's economics that were the radical idea(s).  

 

Ever since then, when the wealth accumulation shifted radically to the wealthiest Americans, there hasn't been a single President or Democratic majority with the power to change things.  Sure, we get a tiny sliver of a tax increase here and there, but it is mostly just to counter act the 15th cat given by a previous administration.

 

I am not sure why our citizens think we can keep giving more wealth & power to the elites and not expect their stranglehold on government & policy to continue to increase. 

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1 hour ago, NoCalMike said:

, there hasn't been a single President or Democratic majority with the power to change things.  

 

The apportionment of seats in the House was based on the 2000 U.S. Census. In the November 4, 2008, elections, the Democratic Party increased its majorities in both chambers, giving President Obama a Democratic majority in the legislature for the first two years of his presidency.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/111th_United_States_Congress

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