ES: The Points Will Soar This Sunday

Greetings everyone, and welcome to today’s seminar.

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1. Buy a plane ticket to Las Vegas, NV.
   
2. Scrape together every penny you can – IRA, kid’s education fund, grandma’s social security checks – and bet it on the OVER of Sunday’s Redskins/Falcon’s game.
   
3. Collect duckets.
   

(The previous message was intended for entertainment purposes only, and in truth it’s one of the most idiotic ideas imaginable, so don’t try it.)

If you love hard-nosed defense, this may be the kind of game that makes you nostalgic for the olden days, when men with leather helmets muscled out victory through attrition in multiple clouds of dust. The Falcons are 3rd in the NFL in points per game at 31, just a hair above the Skins at 30.8.

Despite their 4-0 record, the Falcons are near the bottom in every meaningful statistical category against the run. They have allowed the 4th-most total rushing yards (585), are 2nd-worst in yards per carry (5.2) as well rushing TDs allowed (6), and are 3rd worst in the number of first downs (35) surrendered to the rush.

And who are they facing this week? The number one rushing team in the NFL, your Washington Redskins.

The Redskins run on first down the majority of the time, including about 60% vs. the Bucs (including plays where penalties were called and the down was replayed). As the game wears on, tired defenses do not want to see the NFL’s 5th leading rusher, Alfred Morris, come barreling down on them time and time again. And they definitely don’t want to see RG3–the 16th leading rusher in the NFL, incidentally–get the corner, because he’ll get yards in chunks.

Griffin and Morris’ rushing success has opened up the passing game, to the point where if you remove the last 5 dropbacks during RG3’s game-winning drive against Tampa Bay, the Redskins ran play action on basically half (47%) of all their dropbacks (this includes plays that were clearly intended as passes but turned into QB scrambles). It’s a big reason why Robert Griffin III is completing 69.4% of his passes on the season, which is just a SICK percentage for anyone, but especially mind-boggling for a rookie.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the tracks, there’s a bit of a problem, you see. Don’t know if you’ve heard anything about this yet, maybe it has been mentioned once or twice, but it seems as if the Redskins have had a wee bit of difficulty covering wide receivers. Just a little tiny bit of trouble, here and there.

The high-flying Atlanta Falcons have a similar strength-against-weakness punch in the passing game as the Redskins do with their running attack. In fact, few teams are better prepared to exploit the Redskins’ wide open freeway in the secondary than the Falcons. Their three-headed monster of Julio Jones, Roddy White and the ageless Tony Gonzalez, who at the age of 36 is having one of the best seasons in his Hall of Fame career, must be just slightly more excited about this match-up than fantasy owners of Falcon’s receivers.

Earlier, I mentioned that RG3 had an astounding 69.4% completion rate, which is 2nd in the NFL only to reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers’ 69.9%. More accurately, he’s tied for 2nd…with the Falcon’s Matt Ryan.

Now for the really scary numbers. In the past 2 games, the Redskins have given up pass plays of 78, 48, 59, 65 and 54 yards, and 3 opposing receivers have notched at least 100 yards. Much has been made about Jim Haslett’s cover-0 blitz package, and that seems like an appropriate name, because zero is just about the amount of coverage the secondary has been marshaling.

Sometimes it seems like the Redskins can’t cover anyone, but the breakdowns aren’t on every play. The problem is that any Falcons WR left with one-on-one coverage will win his match-up more often than not. And If the Skins decide to play cover two and double both Jones and White (and when have you seen Haslett do that with any regularity), Gonzalez and RB Michael Turner will kill you slowly if you prefer not to get it over with in a hurry.

Even with double coverage, one has to wonder if the skill level in the Skins secondary can keep guys like Jones and White out of the end zone.

If you watch enough sports analysis on TV, it won’t be long before you hear some ex-player say that such-and-such team doesn’t have an identity or they are searching for one. Some may say the Redskins are in that category, but I beg to differ.

They have an identity, same one they had when the Hogs were paving the way to glory all those years ago. Pound the ball early and often and look for big plays when they are there. Because the only way–and I mean the only snowball's chance in hell they have to beat the Atlanta Falcons–is to win the time of possession battle around a 2-1 basis. Otherwise, the Falcons can, and probably will, paste 40+ on the board.

The other part of the Redskins identity, and the one that should make every member of the Redskins fan base thrilled, is the guy wearing the #10 jersey. If the secondary can keep the game close into the 4th quarter, the Redskins will have a fighting chance to win.

Awesome article. I've been saying it all year. If we can win the TOP, we should win most of our games, despite our D. Mainly because, we all know that this team can throw points on the board like it's nothing, but if we can keep the high powered Falcons offense (much like we did with New Orleans) off the field, than we should win. I see it being a 40-32 type game again, with your Skins out front.

A stat you're missing that I think is also suprising;

Atlanta is averaging 267 yards passing per game.

Skins are averaging 242 yards passing per game.

Adv. Atlanta by only 25 yards.

Skins are averaging 424 total yards per game.

Atlanta only averaging 367 total yards per game.

Adv. Skins by almost 60 yards a game.

TOP is going to be huge Sunday. Our offense has been very good. It can be better. We've had many promising drives stall due to silliness. Too many 15 yard penalties, a botched exchange here or there. If we can stop sabotaging our own drives this offense will really start to soar imo. HTTR

Well done, E-Diggity. VERY well done.

I have to agree. While I'm highly impressed with our new-found ability to put points on the board, we absolutely CANNOT get into a shootout with the Falcons. That'd be like Marvin Hagler standing toe-to-toe with Mike Tyson. They were both bombers in their own right, but in different weight classes -- same thing here.

Alfred Morris has had his big-boy pants on all season long. But he better go one belt loop tighter this week.

Hail.

Fun fact:

Michael Turner has rushed 55 times for 257 yards (4.7 yards per carry) with two touchdowns.

Robert Griffin III has rushed 39 times for 252 yards (6.5 yards per carry) with four touchdowns.

So basically, if Griffin can pick up five yards (and two less touchdowns) in his next 16 carries, he'll be as good as Turner.

Why is Sunday any different? The points have soared in most every game thus far.

We have little to no D. We have some dude in the #10 jersey.

Win or lose, this will be one heck of an exciting ride the rest of the way.

Hail.

Spot on as usual..Good read...and I agree w/you on every point...not that you need my approval but I'm gonna give it to ya anyway..

Fun fact:

Michael Turner has rushed 55 times for 257 yards (4.7 yards per carry) with two touchdowns.

Robert Griffin III has rushed 39 times for 252 yards (6.5 yards per carry) with four touchdowns.

So basically, if Griffin can pick up five yards (and two less touchdowns) in his next 16 carries, he'll be as good as Turner.

Looking into the future, if you believe in omens, if he continues at this pace next year will be a major comedown with his legs.

I'm going off memory, but I believe there's only ever been 5 QB's who've had double digit rushing TD season's. And only one, back in the 50's, followed it up with anything more than 2 or 3 TD's the following season. And all their yards were well done the following year too on the ground.

I'll look up the names later just for ***** and giggles, but the dog 'lover' is one. And Cam last year obviously.

Hail.

Alfred Morris has had his big-boy pants on all season long. But he better go one belt loop tighter this week.

I totally agree with this, and in fact I see it as the key to the game. Like I said, TOP is going to be crucial. We have to string together long drives and get a stop or two along the way. Maybe get lucky and get a tipped pass INT just as the Falcons were driving to score. Stuff like that.

But the big thing is what Alfred Morris can do on 1st down. The Redskins have to win on 1st down repeatedly or it could be a long day. And we can't have those stupid penalties that put us in 1st & 25. Those are 3 & outs waiting to happen, and every 3 & out lessens the Skins' chances more so in this game than normal.

I totally agree with this, and in fact I see it as the key to the game. Like I said, TOP is going to be crucial. We have to string together long drives and get a stop or two along the way. Maybe get lucky and get a tipped pass INT just as the Falcons were driving to score. Stuff like that.

But the big thing is what Alfred Morris can do on 1st down. The Redskins have to win on 1st down repeatedly or it could be a long day. And we can't have those stupid penalties that put us in 1st & 25. Those are 3 & outs waiting to happen, and every 3 & out lessens the Skins' chances more so in this game than normal.

Y'know, it's funny. That might be the biggest thing that I like about RG3; his leadership by example. When you look at the cheap shot Garcon delivered last week, or the ball toss by Morgan in the Rams game, all you can do is shake your head. OR you can look to the rookie QB.

Remember when Griffin got power slammed last week? What did he do afterwards? He got up, clapped his hands, and patted the rusher on the butt. There WAS no "second shot." He had confidence in getting the call. Now, are you ALWAYS going to get the call when someone takes a cheapy at you? Absolutely not. But more often than not, if you don't respond, you'll get the bulk of the calls.

It takes a metric crap load of discipline to be able to handle things that way. But I have to think that The Shannys pointed that out this week. "Look guys. Here's how we're going to handle opponents who try to punk us. And it's going to work out in our favor."

Much respect to the kid for setting that kind of example. I hope it sinks in.

RG3 will be sporting the pink left arm sleeve....guaranteed more points!

RG3 will be sporting the pink left arm sleeve....guaranteed more points!

Sooooo sick!!!!!!

HTRG3. HTMyMOM a 2+ year survivor!!!

Sooooo sick!!!!!!

HTRG3. HTMyMOM a 2+ year survivor!!!

Awesome, great for you and her!!! He tweeted yesterday he was wearing it....

@RGIII is confirmed to rock the Pink Sleeve this month.

Retweeted by Robert Griffin III

@RGIII their are Bears players wearing it on one arm on Monday Night Football!!” Just got word that I can.

good write up Edog, like your stuff ...

... but I’m sorry, this won’t be a high scoring game where both teams are going to contribute … only the Falcons will, and it is not because the Skins offense isn’t capable, it is because they will be made one dimensional and will have to pass for the majority of the game on account of our defense. I don’t see the skins breaking 17-20 points.

So far we have enjoyed either being way up or being real close with our last four opponents, with the exception of Cincy, we were down I think 14 in the first half. Our D is going to open up the floodgates for Atlanta and our offense will suffer for it … I bet the skins rack up a ton of yards, but they won’t punch it in because once they get on Atlanta’s side of the 50 they will have to forgo the run and pass. That’s going to spell trouble.

High scoring teams usually are ranked low in D for the obvious reasons, don’t let Atlanta’s numbers fool you. They are only giving up 19 points a game (8th) and there is a reason why they are first in TO differential … teams are playing catch up.

TOP will be the key, as well as our Defense, we don’t win a shootout, we won’t even get in a shootout, if our D cannot keep the big plays to a minimum.

Pink is the new cool.

Sooooo sick!!!!!!

HTRG3. HTMyMOM a 2+ year survivor!!!

Awesome - my sis just had her last chemo treatment a few weeks ago after a double mastectomy. Hope your mom keeps getting those positive results from the doc.,

good write up Edog, like your stuff ...

... but I’m sorry, this won’t be a high scoring game where both teams are going to contribute … only the Falcons will, and it is not because the Skins offense isn’t capable, it is because they will be made one dimensional and will have to pass for the majority of the game on account of our defense. I don’t see the skins breaking 17-20 points.

So far we have enjoyed either being way up or being real close with our last four opponents, with the exception of Cincy, we were down I think 14 in the first half. Our D is going to open up the floodgates for Atlanta and our offense will suffer for it … I bet the skins rack up a ton of yards, but they won’t punch it in because once they get on Atlanta’s side of the 50 they will have to forgo the run and pass. That’s going to spell trouble.

High scoring teams usually are ranked low in D for the obvious reasons, don’t let Atlanta’s numbers fool you. They are only giving up 19 points a game (8th) and there is a reason why they are first in TO differential … teams are playing catch up.

TOP will be the key, as well as our Defense, we don’t win a shootout, we won’t even get in a shootout, if our D cannot keep the big plays to a minimum.

Let me see if I understand your logic...... Because Atlanta can score quickly we will be unable to run the ball? What on earth does one thing have to do with the other? How about logic that is logical...... Atlanta will not be able to sip the redskins rushing attack. Therefore barring major mistakes on offense Washington will control the clock allowing them to dictate to a certain extent which team has the ball at the end of the game.

We have to win the turn over battle as well as TOP, this will be the main factor for winning this game. A TD by Banks and our special teams coming up big would be huge in this game. This is going to be a good one my brothas!

TOP is going to be huge Sunday. Our offense has been very good. It can be better. We've had many promising drives stall due to silliness. Too many 15 yard penalties, a botched exchange here or there. If we can stop sabotaging our own drives this offense will really start to soar imo. HTTR

That;s the key. TOP. And I agree about the stupid penalties. Cut them down and this team would really score.

---------- Post added October-3rd-2012 at 10:30 AM ----------

good write up Edog, like your stuff ...

... but I’m sorry, this won’t be a high scoring game where both teams are going to contribute … only the Falcons will, and it is not because the Skins offense isn’t capable, it is because they will be made one dimensional and will have to pass for the majority of the game on account of our defense. I don’t see the skins breaking 17-20 points.

So far we have enjoyed either being way up or being real close with our last four opponents, with the exception of Cincy, we were down I think 14 in the first half. Our D is going to open up the floodgates for Atlanta and our offense will suffer for it … I bet the skins rack up a ton of yards, but they won’t punch it in because once they get on Atlanta’s side of the 50 they will have to forgo the run and pass. That’s going to spell trouble.

High scoring teams usually are ranked low in D for the obvious reasons, don’t let Atlanta’s numbers fool you. They are only giving up 19 points a game (8th) and there is a reason why they are first in TO differential … teams are playing catch up.

TOP will be the key, as well as our Defense, we don’t win a shootout, we won’t even get in a shootout, if our D cannot keep the big plays to a minimum.

Falcons will have to choose their poison. Let us run the ball or let Griffin pass, as his accuracy is 2nd in the league. Either way, we move the ball as I don't think their pass rush is as good as Cincy's is right now. Grifffin has 300 yards passing in 2 of the 4 games and this is with a conservative approach. I'd actually like to see us start airing it out a little more.

The part in red, what the hell does that mean? We'll have to give up the run AND the pass? What are we going to do, drop kick it every possession? Makes no sense. Please clarify.

In addition to Atlanta being #1 in turnover differential at +10, we are currently tied with the Bears at #2 with a +7. Not sure I see this as a huge advantage for them.

I'd actually like to see us win the coin toss and receive or Atlanta win it and defer. I think I want the ball first to start grinding out the running yards against them in this one so we don't have to play from behind.

This is one game we need to put immediate pressure on their QB. We simply can't afford to have Matt sit back there with all day to throw, he will have a career game.

A stat you're missing that I think is also suprising;

Atlanta is averaging 267 yards passing per game.

Skins are averaging 242 yards passing per game.

Adv. Atlanta by only 25 yards.

Skins are averaging 424 total yards per game.

Atlanta only averaging 367 total yards per game.

Adv. Skins by almost 60 yards a game.

This is very demonstrative of how much the turnover battle has helped the Falcons. They are putting up big numbers in part because they are dealing with better field position and more opportunities. It is vitally important that the Redskins protect the football when they have it.

Looking into the future, if you believe in omens, if he continues at this pace next year will be a major comedown with his legs.

I'm going off memory, but I believe there's only ever been 5 QB's who've had double digit rushing TD season's. And only one, back in the 50's, followed it up with anything more than 2 or 3 TD's the following season. And all their yards were well done the following year too on the ground.

I'll look up the names later just for ***** and giggles, but the dog 'lover' is one. And Cam last year obviously.

Hail.

VICK'S BEST YEAR WAS 9 IN 2010

( 3 of the 5 were done before the 16 game schedule)

HERE IS YOUR LIST OF 5

Cam Newton - 13 (16 games)

Steve Grogan - 12 (14 games)

Kordell Stewart - 11(16 games)

Tobin Rote - 11(12 games)

Johnny Lujack - 11(12 games)

Looks like its shaping up to be a nasty rainy day Sunday. I'd think that would favor the skins.

If decent weather take the OVER