2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[method man]

4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Reading all this stuff about the OL really makes me want to trade down even more. They all seem like such a big time crap shoot(outside of Skoronski who I think if he plays G will be a sure fire stud)we're better off just moving down, picking up more pick(s), and just taking whoever is left of the bunch.

Totally agreed. If Dawand were to fall to rd 3, he’d be worth the risk. However, reading this and what was posted last time, I really do feel Bergeron is the best value. He’s a Day 1 starter at guard and can either stay there and be a stud or kick outside to tackle eventually if he can clean up his pass pro technique with NFL coaching

[Going Commando]

55 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Character concerns matter. How many times have we seen teams disregard them, only to be bit in the ass by it later? It can reflect on how they're going to conduct themselves and do their job when they get to the NFL, which is far more demanding and requires far more dedication and discipline than college ball.

 

Obviously you have to sniff out what is BS and what is a real character concern. And it has to be weighed against their talent. But you ignore it at your own peril.

 

The concerns about Dawand aren't really character concerns.  It's frustration that he didn't fully participate in the SB and his Pro-Day.  It's petty stuff and he's being singled out for it.

 

I think it's really just about his weight.  Scouts think he's too fat and they think he's going to eat himself out of the league.  Maybe they are right and maybe he will.  But if you're ****ing about how bad the film of the OLs is this year, then you're going to have to take a chance on the one dude with great film.

[seantaylor=god]

I wonder why Dawand canceled the visit  to the Commanders. Could be he has indications he’s going before 16, so this could be moot.

[method man]

1 minute ago, Going Commando said:

 

The concerns about Dawand aren't really character concerns.  It's frustration that he didn't fully participate in the SB and his Pro-Day.  It's petty stuff and he's being singled out for it.

 

I think it's really just about his weight.  Scouts think he's too fat and they think he's going to eat himself out of the league.  Maybe they are right and maybe he will.  But if you're ****ing about how bad the film of the OLs is this year, then you're going to have to take a chance on the one dude with great film.

It’s not. That is some of it but the low Wonderlic, loving basketball more than football (brought up by an OSU beat guy) and oddball character are other concerns 

[Chump Bailey]

1 minute ago, DWinzit said:

Absolutely not worthy or 16 other that Skor or JPP

If we can't trade out I would hope they can grab one of the top 3 CB's (Gonzo, Spoon or Banks) or an edge slips to them which I doubt. I really don't want any other offensive players at 16

Grab one of the top Centers at 47

Praying for a trade down partner

 

I'm pretty much with you and I'd love Avilia or Tippman in round 2 leaning toward Tippman even though CB is very, very deep. In fact, I cannot recall a year where there were so many talented CB's that were available. But, at the end of the day, I suspect OL is where they go in round 1 unless a trade-down opportunity presents itself too good to pass on. 

[Going Commando]

Just now, seantaylor=god said:

I wonder why Dawand canceled the visit  to the Commanders. Could be he has indications he’s going before 16, so this could be moot.

 

Nah I think that's unlikely.  Nobody is going to be promising him when every mock and leak about him is that he's going in the second at best.  I think there is something going on personally with him.  It's troubling, but I'd still pick him after trading back in the first.  He's going to be my OT1 because his actual on-field play is the best of the class and he's got unicorn traits.  If he pans out, he's going to be one of the best players in the entire class.

 

Just wanted to add that the stuff in McGinn's blurb about him not being able to move and reach block was nonsense.  I get that there are weight concerns with the dude, but I've seen the rep of him reach blocking Jalen Carter.  He's not limited by ability.

[Skinsinparadise]

My specific concern with Dawnd is the same as from the jump, can he keep his weight down?  The moody stuff, and not playing in the Senior Bowl after day 1, and not doing pro-day stuff, etc -- not sure what to make of.  But I am specifically interested in him not being willing to weigh in for his pro day.  And wonder if him cancelling the top 30 visit here has something to do with not wanting to weigh in?

 

As some scouts have said if players can't be disciplined during the draft process, which is their job interview process they won't be disciplined as players once they have their job.  I am not saying this is the definitive case with Dawand but just saying this FO would likely have a better handle on his personality than we would.

Edited April 20, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

I like Tippman, wish he was better at finishing blocks at the 2nd level but otherwise high floor player -- they see him as a guard, I might as well, he's played guard and has more of those guard dimensions than he does center.

 

Zavala is one of my favorites.   And Daniels who I've mentioned multiple times I think would be a decent guard, but he needs to out on like 15 pounds of muscle IMO.

 

 

[Going Commando]

8 minutes ago, method man said:

It’s not. That is some of it but the low Wonderlic, loving basketball more than football (brought up by an OSU beat guy) and oddball character are other concerns 

 

What oddball character?  Honest to God character concerns are what Jalen Carter has.  What Dawand Jones has is a bunch of vague, subjective stuff like "I don't think he loves football enough, I think he loves basketball more" and "he's too fat, doesn't have any pride."  The Wonderlic score doesn't concern me at all, that test is archaic nonsense.  I thought the NFL was supposed to stop administering it last year.

 

The concrete issues are his weight, and the fact that he pulled out of most of the pre-draft process and is trying to rest his case on his season.  What I think is that the scouts are upset and took it personally that he didn't work out for them at his Pro-Day.  To me that is petty.  In a bad OL class, I don't think you can afford to be petty.

[Warhead36]

Its really gonna come down to the personal 1 on 1 interviews Dawand has with teams. The weight issues scare me though. 

[DWinzit]

21 minutes ago, method man said:

Totally agreed. If Dawand were to fall to rd 3, he’d be worth the risk. However, reading this and what was posted last time, I really do feel Bergeron is the best value. He’s a Day 1 starter at guard and can either stay there and be a stud or kick outside to tackle eventually if he can clean up his pass pro technique with NFL coaching

I hate when the bad press comes out so close to the draft. I hope more of it gets cleared or more evidence comes out proving it. Always think back to Sapp and Tunsil on the negative side of BS but many late comments have proven true.

 

If the reports continue it will drive these guys down boards and force other guys like Berg up. I have this because I see him similar to you, a great value in the 2nd round to start right away at LG and be able to move to more than likely either T at some point

 

I worry this team, if they can't get a trade will take B Jones at 16

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Dawand Jones could be one of those high-ceiling players with enough downside to slip into the 3rd or 4th rounds or later. I'm sure someone will jump on the opportunity to work with him at some point. 

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

What oddball character?  Honest to God character concerns are what Jalen Carter has.  What Dawand Jones has is a bunch of vague, subjective stuff like "I don't think he loves football enough, I think he loves basketball more" and "he's too fat, doesn't have any pride."  The Wonderlic score doesn't concern me at all, that test is archaic nonsense.  I thought the NFL was supposed to stop administering it last year.

 

The concrete issues are his weight, and the fact that he pulled out of most of the pre-draft process and is trying to rest his case on his season.  What I think is that the scouts are upset and took it personally that he didn't work out for them at his Pro-Day.  To me that is petty.  In a bad OL class, I don't think you can afford to be petty.

His weight also calls into question his work ethic, which can play into oddball character concerns.

 

I like Dawand, too, as a player. And think on the field he has tremendous potential. But this is the biggest moment in his career and he's cancelling visits and can't keep his weight in check. That is a concern.

 

Perhaps not a character one. But his mental may not be in the greatest place. Stress/anxiety through the process can do that to you.

 

But he is a risk with those concerns.

 

The problem would be the work ethic. If guys in the locker room think you bust your ass and your character issues are all based on quirkiness, no one cares. But if you are an different dude and don't have a good work ethic, you are going to have a bad time in the locker room and those issues compound.

 

Is that the case for Dawand? Who knows. But that side of these evaluations are where I can't project.

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

The concrete issues are his weight, and the fact that he pulled out of most of the pre-draft process and is trying to rest his case on his season.  What I think is that the scouts are upset and took it personally that he didn't work out for them at his Pro-Day.  To me that is petty.  In a bad OL class, I don't think you can afford to be petty.

 

Like you, I am a big fan of Dawand.  And I do think weight is by a mile the variable that I want to know more about.  Like I said, I don't care that he didn't do the exercises at his pro day but I do care that he refused to weigh in.  and I wonder why he skipped this top 30 visit whch as I understand includes a weigh in.

 

I think some have ths narrative that he stopped at the Senior Bowl for no legit reason after the first day.  I've heard that in multiple podcasts from draftniks.  I have no idea if that's true or not.  But maybe its that combined with him skipping doing stuff on his pro day. And like I said I wonder why he cancelled his top 30 visit here?

 

Edited April 20, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Also, I'm starting to wonder if we target OT in the 1st or 2nd round but then wait on any interior OL until 4th-6th round or later. As much as I love the idea of going OT-C ... they did pay Nick Gates decent money and I have to assume he's either penciled in at LG or OC depending on what they do with Roullier. At this point drafting a starting-caliber Year 1 at OC in the 1st or 2nd round, or even the 3rd, feels like this FO might view it as a luxury given Gates and Roullier's presence. It's hard not to grab one of them there in the 2nd or 3rd but I have to wonder if this FO thinks they did enough in FA to only address OL one time early in the draft.

 

Drafting an OT to play RT out of the gate flips Wylie to LG which is probably where he plays best. That puts Gates at OC. So to me, drafting an OT completes the OL in Year 1, so adding a Center that would be a keyed in Day 1 starter feels like it would be overkill to this FO. But adding a 4th-5th round Center to groom to compete long-term with Gates might be more of a fit, and allow us to use earlier picks elsewhere. 

 

I would absolutely love adding, say, Darnell Wright at #16 and JMS at #47 (if he's there), but that would mean Gates is likely a backup, which is fine, but just wondering if the FO would go that route.

Edited April 20, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Skinsinparadise]

A lot of focus here on Dawand but I've already read heard whipsers about him which I mentioned here.  The Darnell Wright slams on his work ethic were new to me.  that got my attention.

[method man]

11 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

What oddball character?  Honest to God character concerns are what Jalen Carter has.  What Dawand Jones has is a bunch of vague, subjective stuff like "I don't think he loves football enough, I think he loves basketball more" and "he's too fat, doesn't have any pride."  The Wonderlic score doesn't concern me at all, that test is archaic nonsense.  I thought the NFL was supposed to stop administering it last year.

 

The concrete issues are his weight, and the fact that he pulled out of most of the pre-draft process and is trying to rest his case on his season.  What I think is that the scouts are upset and took it personally that he didn't work out for them at his Pro-Day.  To me that is petty.  In a bad OL class, I don't think you can afford to be petty.

Pete Hailey had an OSU beat reporter on his podcast who said that Dawand did not put as much effort in early on during his OSU career because he still dreamed of basketball. It’s possible he now loves football but who knows

 

Wonderlic unfortunately is the best publicly reported measure we have of a player’s intelligence, at least as reported here. OLs generally sit in the 20s and are probably the next highest position group after QBs on score.

Edited April 20, 2023 by method man

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

His weight also calls into question his work ethic, which can play into oddball character concerns.

 

 

Especially if its during the draft process.  As some scouts have said if players can't keep it together during the job interview process they don't expect them to pull it together later on. 

[Warhead36]

Yeah I haven't really heard anything about Darnell Wright's work ethic. I think his big issue is that he really is a RT in the NFL and teams are still reluctant to draft OTs high that don't project to play on the left.

 

But I think an OL of Leno - Wylie - Gates - Cosmi - Wright is a big time upgrade over what we had last year. And if we can take a good C in the 2nd then wowzah...

 

And I could see Bienemy stressing that. Remember after the Chiefs lost to the Bucs in the Super Bowl because of their disastrous OL, they went crazy hard all in to overhaul it. I think more so than playmakers Bienemy will understand just how much this team still needs talent up front.

[Skinsinparadise]

56 minutes ago, woodpecker said:

BPA is a noble pursuit that all drafters aspire to. But in a salary capped league, it is usually not practical. You need to pencil in those early round picks as cheap starters to manage the cap. BPA works better for late round picks. 
 

As for the Eagles, I like their strategy too, but let’s face it… If they didn’t land Hurts, nobody would be talking about it. Taking a QB early, even though they had seemingly committed to another one is by far the most important thing they’ve done in the draft. This is why I think you have to at least look at a guy like a Hooker, despite the warts.

 

I think you can argue it either way including value BPA more early where you have a better shot at that superstar.  But to me it all depends.  It's sort of Zen approach -- go with the flow, follow your board.

 

There is not an exact science to it, clearly   And sure value the money positions earlier, as to weighing the pick, etc.  And if you have multiple players with similar ability available at your pick -- go with need.  but if you have an A grade player at a non need spot versus a B plus player at a need spot -- take the A player IMO.

 

As Logan Paulsen likes to say, draft BPA as much as you can because even if you have a need focus -- think of it this way. 

 

A.  FA is going to change the dynamic over time where a player who might not feel like fits a need today -- will very likely fit a need soon.

 

B.  Injuries can change need over the course of a season

 

C. Great teams -- taking QB aside -- tend to have great players who can change a game

Edited April 20, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

Its easy to shout "BPA!" all the time and I agree with the general premise, but you still have to build a football team that you can actually put out on the field. It doesn't help you much if you're constantly drafting guys who can't play much because they were the best player available while other parts of your team are in dire need of talent upgrades.

 

I think the best strategy is a combination of BPA, need(present vs. future), and positional value. When you factor all those need, OL and CB are definitely the top two on this team. 

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Its easy to shout "BPA!" all the time and I agree with the general premise, but you still have to build a football team that you can actually put out on the field. It doesn't help you much if you're constantly drafting guys who can't play much because they were the best player available while other parts of your team are in dire need of talent upgrades.

 

I think the best strategy is a combination of BPA, need(present vs. future), and positional value. When you factor all those need, OL and CB are definitely the top two on this team. 

 

I think when most people say BPA, they are speaking of the hybrid and not just "TAKE THE BEST PLAYER!"

 

If they were, more punters, kickers and long snappers would be seen as the best overall players. But they aren't. 

[method man]

18 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

I hate when the bad press comes out so close to the draft. I hope more of it gets cleared or more evidence comes out proving it. Always think back to Sapp and Tunsil on the negative side of BS but many late comments have proven true.

 

If the reports continue it will drive these guys down boards and force other guys like Berg up. I have this because I see him similar to you, a great value in the 2nd round to start right away at LG and be able to move to more than likely either T at some point

 

I worry this team, if they can't get a trade will take B Jones at 16

 

 

Yep. Rivera needs to have a great draft of guys with a high likelihood of contributing this year. I expect them to take a tact similar to 2022, taking veteran high character players on Day 1 and Day 2 like they did with Dotson, Mathis and BRob. Bergeron seems to fit that mold 

 

Thinking about it further, the only publicly risky player from a character standpoint Rivera has drafted has been Charles and he has been a bust. You can blame it due to injuries but the guy still has not figured out pass pro after 3 years, even as a guard. Makes you question his work ethic. 

Edited April 20, 2023 by method man

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Its easy to shout "BPA!" all the time and I agree with the general premise, but you still have to build a football team that you can actually put out on the field. It doesn't help you much if you're constantly drafting guys who can't play much because they were the best player available while other parts of your team are in dire need of talent upgrades.

 

I think the best strategy is a combination of BPA, need(present vs. future), and positional value. When you factor all those need, OL and CB are definitely the top two on this team. 

 

No one is saying BPA "all the time"

 

What is being said is.

 

A.  Drafting a distinctly better player at a spot which isn't a hot need (especially a premium position like edge) versus drafting a player who fits a need -- is the better way to go IMO.

 

B.  The idea of drafting to need will flow with the draft typically anyway -- you are going to have picks almost for sure where you have similar graded players and one will fit a need better.

 

I recall Kyle Smith talking about this some in an interview.  He said he does try to go BPA early in the draft.  But once he hits the mid rounds he factors need much more heavily.  And sometimes you can have the best of both worlds where need and BPA marry and that's ideal.

Edited April 20, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I think a good example of non-trades BPA+Needs is taking a Top 5 player on the board at a position of need. Especially as you get past the earlier rounds. An example would be:

16: Broderick Jones, OT Georgia (#1 player on board)

47: DJ Turner, CB Michigan (#7 player on board)

97: Henry To'To', LB Alabama (#3 player on board)

118: DJ Johnson, Edge Oregon (#1 player on board)

150: Jarrett Patterson, C Notre Dame (#6 player on board)

193: Deuce Vaughn, RB Kansas State (#3 player on board)

215: Jalen Green, S Miss. State (#1 player on board)

233: Tyson Bagent, QB Shepard (#7 player on board)

 

With the first 4 picks, which you expect to have some immediate impact, you get your starting LT/RT ... starting CB ... potential starting LB and a 3rd DE to eventually replace Young or Sweat ...

 

Or

16: Brian Branch, S Alabama (#2 player on board)

47: Emmanuel Forbes, CB Miss. State (#2 player on board)

97: Tucker Kraft, TE SDSU (#1 player on board)

118: Henry To'To', LB Alabama (#1 player on board)

150: Jon Gaines, C UCLA (#1 player on board)

193: Kamrun Peoples, RB App. State (#4 player on board)

215: Thomas Incoon, Edge Central Michigan (#2 player on board)

233: Malik Cunningham, QB Lousivlle (#4 player on board)

 

In second scenario it's more pure BPA with a mix of needs late, but it leaves us without an OT and without addressing the OL until R5, which I think is highly unlikely. You really beef up the defense adding Branch and Forbes making the DB group very good, Kraft gives you a TE to mold long-term to replace Thomas, and a LB that can compete to start alongside Davis. But the OL remains as-is, with only Gaines being a long-term option to eventually play OC.

 

I think I prefer scenario 1.

 

Edited April 20, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins