Zim489 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said: I think 10 or 11 wins is reasonable. I might be off in lala land. Which is possible, I won't deny it. But the roster is really not bad. I dont think its bad but I dont think its really that good either. The floor of the team is significantly better than just 2 years ago but IMO they are still lacking elite talent across the board besides JA as the only player who is currently top 5 in their position on the roster. I also think Ron wins us more of the 5050 coin games against bad teams than an average coach should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Cole: Mitchell Trubisky has all the buzz, but Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota are better free-agent QB options After a season backing up Josh Allen with the Buffalo Bills, Trubisky has re-entered the national conversation. A good portion of Trubisky's interest reflects a lack of viable options in the draft and free agency for an outsized number of teams that need a replacement at the game’s most important position. Another factor is the glowing reports from former offensive coordinator and new New York Giants head coach Brian Daboll, who reportedly strongly advocated bringing Trubisky to Buffalo. While the feeling and narratives around Trubisky are at the highest point we’ve seen in years, it’s always edifying to go back to the data. I’m going to look into the case for Trubisky as the top free agent quarterback available by comparing his career numbers against a couple other top options, and I find that he doesn’t really stack up according to our passing grades or other advanced metrics. CAN TRUBISKY STILL IMPROVE At least part of the case for signing Trubisky to be a 2022 starting quarterback is the thought that he’s relatively young and has more room to improve than other options. Nonetheless, when looking at the career dropbacks for Trubisky versus other top options Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, there isn’t a drastic difference in the amount of evidence we’ve seen from each. Trubisky has just over 2,000 NFL dropbacks, which is only a few hundred fewer than Mariota, who was drafted No. 2 overall two years earlier. Winston has over 3,000 dropbacks, but as you’ll see, he also has a much more impressive resume. Mariota and Winston were relatively young draft picks, making them less than one year older than Trubisky, discounting the notion that the younger Trubisky has more room to grow. HISTORICAL EFFICIENCY AND PFF GRADES One area that Trubisky doesn’t trail the other top free agents by too much is in career performance using expected points per dropback. I complied trailing 500-dropback averages for the three quarterbacks over their careers to get an idea of each quarterback's peaks and valleys. At 1,000 dropbacks into their careers, Trusbisky had the best trailing 500-dropback efficiency, but that quickly faded as he entered his third and fourth NFL seasons. Winston was a consistently better performer, as he only dipped below the 50th percentile line a couple times during his career. Turning to PFF passing grade, the picture gets much darker for Trubisky. Trubisky, only for the briefest of moments, rose above the 50th percentile in trailing PFF passing grade then quickly fell back under the 25th percentile. Former head coach Matt Nagy's reputation has fallen so much that many don’t remember that Nagy won the AP's NFL Coach of the Year for 2018 — the year that Trubisky broke out in EPA. That award coincided with the perception that Nagy was engineering better numbers than Trubisky's level of play — not the idea that Nagy held Trubisky down. PFF's 2022 QB Annual features 39 quarterbacks who played a meaningful role during the 2021-22 season. Each profile features a 10-page spread that includes PFF data points you won’t find anywhere else. Click here to get your copy today! A common example of the bust-to-franchise quarterback path is Ryan Tannehill‘s career arc. However, when putting Tannehill’s career trailing 500-dropback grading averages next to Trubisky’s, there isn’t much of a comparison early in their careers. Tannehill showed tremendous promise according to his PFF grades early in his career, which meant he displayed potential upside never seen from Trubisky. Tannehill’s trailing grading collapsed into his second contract, but he had more than theoretical ability to be a franchise quarterback. Some team will likely take a calculated risk and sign Trubisky to compete for its 2022 starting job. I won’t say that is necessarily a mistake, but there isn’t a strong case to prioritize him over similar aged and better performing free agents such as Winston and Mariota. A one-year prove-it deal could work out, but a backup plan for Trubisky is a necessity for any team willing to take the plunge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 2 hours ago, Warhead36 said: We're gonna end up passing on a defensive stud to reach on a mediocre QB. Its basically the opposite of 2011 when we traded down with the Jags so they could take Blaine Gabbert while we end up with Ryan Kerrigan. We're gonna pass up on a Kerrigan to draft a Gabbert. I recall heads exploding on ES when we traded out of that pick and didn't take Gabbert. We needed a QB then as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ball Security Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, MartinC said: I recall heads exploding on ES when we traded out of that pick and didn't take Gabbert. We needed a QB then as well. Could have just stayed at our pick and grabbed Watt. Jenkins got hurt in the preseason and didn’t provide much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 15 minutes ago, Ball Security said: Could have just stayed at our pick and grabbed Watt. Jenkins got hurt in the preseason and didn’t provide much. Lots of coulda shoulda. I just recall there were guys really deep into Gabbert being 'the guy' and who lost it when we passed on him. I have to admit I liked him but I did question his tendency to leave clean pockets and sometimes see pressure that wasn't there. I had doubts and was fine when we passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) Latest from J.T. O'Sullivan on Willis. Part 4, posted today. A lot of the same critiques (positive and negative) as part 3. - Big time arm - Elite athleticism and running (though he notes that not all of what we see will translate well and he's going up against a horrid defense in this game that couldn't tackle to save their lives) - When his footwork is good and he's in rhythm he can hit some absolute dimes - Often drifts a lot in the pocket with iffy footwork - Still missing really open guys, sometimes because he brings his eyes down to the LOS and pass rushers, sometimes because he pulls it down and runs too early - Doesn't often throw with anticipation He did highlight or two plays that show he can potentially go through full reads and throw with some anticipation, but it doesn't happen often. In the play where he went through a full field read he also had all day to throw because his OL was holding. He highlighted a nice throw with a bit of anticipation on a stop route down the left sideline. So all in all, pretty much what most people think. Super talented, super raw. Edited March 3, 2022 by mistertim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaceman Spiff Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Warhead36 said: We're gonna pass up on a Kerrigan to draft a Gabbert. Blaine Gabbert has more Super Bowl rings than Dan Marino, Donovan McNabb, Jim Kelly, Michael Vick, and Philip Rivers. He has as many rings as Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, Joe Namath, Kurt Warner, Drew Brees and Russell Wilson. Give me the Gabbert. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RWJ Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 44 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said: Now think about this for a second or two. Washington has a new name and RR and Co. want someone that is special (physically/mentally) with leadership qualities QBing this team. Willis is a local guy from Liberty U., scores a 32 on his Wonderlic, has all the physical skills you want in a QB just needs to learn the speed of the game. RR and Co. say they will do whatever it takes to get THAT guy. Folks, Willis has been nothing short of impressive and if he does well at the Combine and his Pro Day, I could see this team trading up and selecting this guy. I mean he has a close relationship with Cam as does RR and probably Hurney. We know all we need to know about him beings that he is local. Doesn't it make sense. I like Ridder BUT... Just think about what I am saying. Responses welcomed. I can't watch the Combine as I can't get NFLN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, RWJ said: Responses welcomed. I can't watch the Combine as I can't get NFLN. While I've preferred Corral, Willis has been my #2 QB right after him for eons. Been talking about him on and off during the whole college season. I've defended plenty the idea of taking him and pushed for his fit here even though some disagreed. Yeah I'd be on board 100% without any hesitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VirginiaVibes Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 16 minutes ago, mistertim said: Latest from J.T. O'Sullivan on Willis. Part 4, posted today. A lot of the same critiques (positive and negative) as part 3. - Big time arm - Elite athleticism and running (though he notes that not all of what we see will translate well and he's going up against a horrid defense in this game that couldn't tackle to save their lives) - When his footwork is good and he's in rhythm he can hit some absolute dimes - Often drifts a lot in the pocket with iffy footwork - Still missing really open guys, sometimes because he brings his eyes down to the LOS and pass rushers, sometimes because he pulls it down and runs too early - Doesn't often throw with anticipation He did highlight or two plays that show he can potentially go through full reads and throw with some anticipation, but it doesn't happen often. In the play where he went through a full field read he also had all day to throw because his OL was holding. He highlighted a nice throw with a bit of anticipation on a stop route down the left sideline. So all in all, pretty much what most people think. Super talented, super raw. Definitely agree with this assessment. His hype is going to have him selected high and the same people praising him will be lamenting whoever picks him because it's going to take a long time before he is a good pocket passer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RWJ Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said: While I've preferred Corral, Willis has been my #2 QB right after him for eons. Been talking about him on and off during the whole college season. I've defended plenty the idea of taking him and pushed for his fit here even though some disagreed. Yeah I'd be on board 100% without any hesitation. Wonderlic of 32, physical abilities. Local player, 7 on 7s with Cam. Cam associated with one of our GMs, HC, OC. Commander Willis! BIG PR for Commanders. Wears the #7 with him being the right person doing it! Makes sense. 5 minutes ago, VirginiaVibes said: Definitely agree with this assessment. His hype is going to have him selected high and the same people praising him will be lamenting whoever picks him because it's going to take a long time before he is a good pocket passer. We sign the right FA QB to a 2 year deal (Mariota/Winston) and then let Willis loose and even come in on some plays his rookie year for the Wildcat and plays scripted for him. It's a win win! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 I don't think anyone is swearing by Willis. If Willis was polished and proready, he'd be going #1, slam dunk. Only reason why there is a chance to get him is because of his rawness. Considering he has supposedly aced his interviews. His wonderlic score by the way 28% higher than the mighty Trubisky. Supposedly he has high intangibles. He just might live up to his potential and work through the kinks. I've consistetly pushed Corral as my #1 probably from as far back as last Septemeber. Willis' tools though has made me consistently intrigued as a swing for the fences -- YOLO, type of pick. As for the tweet below, me too. Howell seems to be lost in the sauce among this QB class. He's my #3 Qb in the class. I am looking forward to see what he does this evening. As far as just accuracy out of a clean pocket, Howell IMO makes some of the most wicked throws among this group. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VirginiaVibes Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, RWJ said: Wonderlic of 32, physical abilities. Local player, 7 on 7s with Cam. Cam associated with one of our GMs, HC, OC. Commander Willis! BIG PR for Commanders. Wears the #7 with him being the right person doing it! Makes sense. We sign the right FA QB to a 2 year deal (Mariota/Winston) and then let Willis loose and even come in on some plays his rookie year for the Wildcat and plays scripted for him. It's a win win! I don't like that plan AT ALL but to each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RWJ Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said: I don't think anyone is swearing by Willis. If Willis was polished and proready, he'd be going #1, slam dunk. Only reason why there is a chance to get him is because of his rawness. Considering he has supposedly aced his interviews. His wonderlic score by the way 28% higher than the mighty Trubisky. Supposedly he has high intangibles. He just might live up to his potential and work through the kinks. I've consistetly pushed Corral as my #1 probably from as far back as last Septemeber. Willis' tools though has made me consistently intrigued as a swing for the fences -- YOLO, type of pick. Yep, we'd need to move up and ensure we get him because he may go top 5 or higher depending on who we trade with. It means passing on the QBs for next year and going all in this year for Willis. Just look at KC and Mahomes. Who would have thunk! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, RWJ said: Wonderlic of 32, physical abilities. Local player, 7 on 7s with Cam. Cam associated with one of our GMs, HC, OC. Commander Willis! BIG PR for Commanders. Wears the #7 with him being the right person doing it! Makes sense. We sign the right FA QB to a 2 year deal (Mariota/Winston) and then let Willis loose and even come in on some plays his rookie year for the Wildcat and plays scripted for him. It's a win win! I sometimes agree, sometimes disagree about @wit33 about QBs. So since we 100% are in lockstep that Mariota/Willis would be a fun combination, it has to be right? 😀 I am warming up to Winston. I was OK with him last year. Turned off by the comments from the Saints reporters during the season about him. I think I am back to being OK with him but I don't think he's on their radar. 1 minute ago, RWJ said: Yep, we'd need to move up and ensure we get him because he may go top 5 or higher depending on who we trade with. It means passing on the QBs for next year and going all in this year for Willis. Just look at KC and Mahomes. Who would have thunk! LOL Not sure I like trading up, if it demands a 1st from 2023. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RWJ Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said: Not sure I like trading up, if it demands a 1st from 2023. If your YOLOing I think your trading your 2023 1st rounder and... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 minute ago, RWJ said: If your YOLOing I think your trading your 2023 1st rounder and... If you're doing this you have to really love a prospect and believe that he's definitely the guy. From what we've heard so far it sounds like the Commanders FO and coaches like a couple guys but don't really love any. Could be a smokescreen though, I suppose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smooth Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Dont like trading up for a qb that is this raw..He may have all the tools but playing at liberty and not playing top talent should be a concern ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewCliche21 Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 I don't know F about S, but if we traded up for a quarterback in this draft I would be furious if it were for anything more than this year's first and a 4th. Like, no. Should've done it last year or next year, not this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VirginiaVibes Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 (edited) 4 minutes ago, smooth said: Dont like trading up for a qb that is this raw..He may have all the tools but playing at liberty and not playing top talent should be a concern ! The reporter on NFL Network just said she talked to several coaches at the combine and said a lot of them love Willis's physical tools but think he needs 2 years Also only 2 QBs ran at the combine which is bizarre. I didn't realize that all the other QBs opted out. Edited March 3, 2022 by VirginiaVibes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HigSkin Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 Look what SF did to go up and get Lance who was raw. It wouldnt be unheard of although Commanders would be chastised for doing it. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinsinparadise Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RWJ Posted March 3, 2022 Share Posted March 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, HigSkin said: Look what SF did to go up and get Lance who was raw. It wouldnt be unheard of although Commanders would be chastised for doing it. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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