2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Est.1974]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

My gut right now is we end up with Corral or Howell.  They both seem so up Rivera's alley.  Those two are so tough and feisty and leaders -- with backgrounds that I think Rivera will love including military.

Agree. Against popular opinion, I also think we might trade up in the draft to get our QB. I could see a move into the top 5 range with the Jets....especially if we beat the Giants and land back at pick 11/12 say.

[kwitt]

To those who think Corral should not have played in the bowl game.  Why didn't he sit out the last game of the regular season?  Was that not a risk too? Would that have hurt his draft spot? Where does this s*&t end?  Players who opt out might be making a wise financial decision but they are also quitters.  Plain and simple.  I love the guy for playing and not letting his teammates down.  I don't care if the injury ended his career it was the right thing to do.  

[OMacAttack]

So current draft order and whether they are looking to draft a QB obviously a lot to be decided yet and a long off-season but as it stands currently.

 

1. Jacksonville: 2-14 - No - they have Lawrence

 

2. Detroit: 2-13-1 - Yes - Goff isn't their answer could draft a replacement

 

3. Houston: 4-12 - Maybe - Do they like Mills enough to skip a QB this year?

 

4. New York Jets: 4-12 - No - Building around Wilson

 

5. New York Giants: 4-12 - Maybe - Jones may be out could see them swinging in the draft if that's the case.

 

6. Carolina: 5-11 - Yes - Darnold experiment failed they need to start over

 

7. New York Jets (via Seattle): 6-10 - Still no. Could see someone try to jump up to either of the Jets picks to draft a QB

 

8. New York Giants (via Chicago): 6-10 - Still Maybe all depends on Jones / Trades

 

9. Washington: 6-10 - Yes - Clearly we need a QB

 

10. Atlanta: 7-9 - Maybe - Ryan's replacement could be drafted this year

 

11. Denver: 7-9 - Maybe - is Drew Lock their guy going forward?

 

12. Minnesota: 7-9 - Yes - It seems like Kirk is on the outs

 

13. Cleveland: 7-8 - Maybe - My guess is Mayfield stays but crazy things happen

 

We could pick as low as 13 depending how the last week plays out.

 

[The Consigliere]

16 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am not ripping you.  But you seem to take it that way.  Thus I go out of my way to couch things to you as we are all wrong about stuff, because heck that's true, we all are.   If you or me or anyone here is nailing everything, we are wasting our time on the thread.  We should be working in a FO.  Parcells once said the best GMs get it right 50% of the time.  if we supposedly are better than that then we are wasting our talents here. 

 

It's hard for me to forget some of your takes because you seem to be the most definitive person here about your takes and are willing to call people as being wrong with absolute conviction when you disagree.  Part of the reason why I'll repeat a thing that i recall you arguing with me about in the past with conviction and ended up wrong is simply if it applies to a current definitive take of yours.   And look I am not even saying you are wrong.  Just saying maybe its possible you are wrong?  I got some strong opinions about some things but rarely I feel that way with total conviction.  There is a crap shoot element to all of this.  It's mostly opinion from all of us. 

 

So yeah I don't give a rats behind about how much you touted to trade for Rosen because you got it wrong.  For example, on the FA thread I touted Richardson as a FA want and he sucked.  So I try to learn from it.  I've nailed some good stuff and looked like a moron on other things.  My point about Rosen and Darnold centered on a point which is its another example of why I am not hung up on what the draft media thinks of a draft class.  That's why to me its relevant when you harp on that point. 

 

If you are taking a QB in 2017, media draft geeks would say pass if you could considering Rosen and Darnold are the jewels so wait for them in 2018.  And then Mayfield ended up a sexy pick, too in theory.    They ended up wrong.  They've been wrong about a heck of a lot when it comes to QBs. 

 

I think the other thing you don't consider enough is even if lets say Young and Stroud just kill it, what are the odds we are in position to draft them?  You talk in terms of being a student of the history of this stuff, then you should know that teams rarely trade out of spots to give up the theoritical sure things QBs.  

 

The shot to trade up is typically the QBs that don't seem slam dunk.   the pond we likely shop in next year if we passed on the spot this year would be the 4th or 5th top QBs in that draft in theory.  Who are those guys?  Tough to guess.  Maybe Jefferson, Rattler?

 

 

 

It might be.  But what is your opinion based on?  If its mock draft consensus takes or analytics they've struggled with these calls as much as NFL teams, maybe even more.  

 

I am not arguing that the 2022 class is as good as 2023.  In theory sure 2023 looks better right now.  But, i am not looking at the knock out models and thinking heck yeah in 2023 that's who we will be dating if we just wait.  i am thinking we are likely dating the cute girl who lives next door whether its in 2023 or 2022 -- not the models.  So how do I compare them?     Corral versus Rattler.  Jefferson versus Pickett.  Etc.  Otherwise i think we are living in fantasy land if we think we are drafting in the top 2.   We might even be in better position to get that player in this draft versus next year considering I am not so sure we will be drafting top 10 next year.

 

I'd wager that no one puts up more analyltics on this thread than me.  I charted every position in the last draft and including every analytical grade I can find on a spread sheet and put it here.  i love that stuff.  But IMO its not definitive.   There is a reason why NFL teams have scouting teams who go watch these players in person and interview everybody they can find about players.  

 

The thing is especially for QBs, its tough to live and die with stats.  Traits matter.  Context matter.  Intangibles matter.    PFF had Will Grier as the #3 Qb in the 2019 draft.  It's not the only weird ranking they've had at that spot.   Numbers wise he was very exciting.  So was Colt McCoy and a slew of others over the years.  No one has invented the wheel on evaluating college QBs.   if they did whether it was Kiper, McShay, PFF, Warren Sharp, they'd be billionaries.  

 

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-top-10-quarterbacks-for-2019-nfl-draft

 

The advanced numbers suggest Will Grier may be the steal of the 2019 NFL Draft

 

 

I think I take it that way because I see a bit of a gratuitious approach to references my misses. So on the one hand, I think it's silly to say rip me, instead of rip my opinions, on the other hand since i hear about Rosen, or Darnold, or whomever any time I mention anything w/the draft, it does feel a bit specific to me since i don't see the same dedication to referencing misses w/the draft w/others. That being said, it's no big deal, I'm not the kind of person who hides from misses, I have a ton of them over the years, especially at QB...a sampling of some of them below, but not nearly all of them. 

 

Ftr:

I also missed on Locker (thought he was gonna be a late first  value, instaed he got picked high)

I also missed on RGIII (loved him, though I do think his career might have been different if he'd had a coach more inclined to protect his health than Shanny)

I also missed on Baker (and the entire '18 class really (had them 1. Baker 2. Rosen 3. Darnold 4. Jackson 5 Josh Allen who I wouldn't have even selected due to the accuracy issues, he's the only guy I've ever seen improve like this ever so I don't feel as bad about missing on him as I do about....

Deshaun Watson, who I loved, until I overrated the living hell out of his velocity score. Back then I thought the velocity score reflected arm strength, clearly either it doesn't, or his was faulty or both. 

 

We'll see how I did on the more recent ones:

'19: I hated Danny Dimes, loved Kyler, was okay with taking Haskins there as a roll of the dice, but was ambivalent about his talent.

 

'20: loved Tua, liked Herbert and Burrow. 

 

'21: had them Lawrence and FIelds nearly tied, big drop off, then Lance, and then drop off then Jones. Not a fan of any of the others for round 1.

 

'22: Corral, and Willis are probably my two favorite followed by Howell, and then I'm off. Corral scares me, so does Willis, so does Howell, although I loved how Howell played when he actually had weapons ('19-'20). 

 

Curious what Vols taught you, or persuaded you to look for in particular? I tend to distrust tape grinding, i know it's necessary but I tend to view it as the least reliable technique to evaluate guys, especially once you've tiered out, all people carry in biases, and biases in what they look for tend to shade the heck out of tape evaluations. I get that analytics misses plenty too, but in terms of probabilities, it's still a more reliable approach when you find and refine tools that improve that methodology. In terms of betting on the '23 class, it's not what I wanted, and your reasoning is very sound in terms of how hard it will be to move up, but I'm not sold your right. Most of the bottom of the barrell sides likely to hit rock bottom next year have their QB's, or will be going after guys like Rodgers, Watson and Wilson. Only sides I can think of that could go splat and totally would take one are probably Pittsburgh, maybe Houston, Denver, Oakland, NYG, Atlanta, Detroit, Seattle, Carolina, hmmm, anyone else, maybe Minny? But most of these teams still seem like 6+ win teams, so I'm not sold that the teams that sit in the 1 and 2 or 3 slot in '23 are a lock to be taking QB. Could easily be a team that gets to ransom the pick which is why I'd trade down this year and add a 1st, but it's also, 100% why I felt getting Fields (or failing that Mac) should have been 1000% the action taken last year. Fields was a #1 to #2 overall type talent in many QB classes, I was not as sold on Mac but warmed up to him. This draft doesnt have anyone close to either of them to me, which is why the trade up was mandatory, why take a LB when the next class has nobody close to Fields in it as a prospect? Why pass on mac, when Mac would have likely gone 1-2 in '22? You are taking (if you go QB) a guy who probably wouldn't have been a 1st rounder, period, in last years class other than Corral, Howell, and maybe this years version of Willis, and in the former cases, those guys were behind all of the big 5 last year). Alas they passed, and now we're stuck, pulling a 2019 again, or trying to hoard assets to move up in '23 (I very much doubt they'd do what I would). 

 

Also wished I had a different tone when I post about these topics as I know I piss people off w/my takes on this stuff, in some area's, I view things as implied and understood and they're not, like for instance positional approach in round 1, when I discuss that, I get the sense that people don't understand it's about a combination of efficacy and probability, not a situation where it's a 100% right at all times in terms of hit rate approach. When it comes to targeting positions in round 1, the reason why is the same reason why a random encounter in college is better w/a condom then not. It doesn't mean the condom is going to deliver the protection 100% of the time, just means it will be safer, and reliably more safer, but not 100% safer. In these draft instances, its not nearly at that level (the 90%'s) but to me, if you know going in that positions cost more in FA than others, and you know hit rates, and you know more or less the WAR value a la baseball of positions, and impact, then getting guys on rookie deals that play specific positions over others makes more sense. It doesn't mean Ray Lewis isn't Ray Lewis, he is, it just means probabilities suggest the best use of cap room and top draft picks for generating the most value over time, clearly sit in some area's positionally. You know this as I think you deal more with statistics and probabilities in your work and what not, and are likely infinitely more talented in math than me lol (I'm terrible), it's just, if math tells you something, well, you should listen. If there's a 60% chance a bad thing happens if I do A, and a 40% chance if I do B, well, do B. Right? 

 

That seems simple to me. 

 

It doesn't mean, again, the players will automatically hit, sometimes the lesser probabilities end up being Ray Lewis, or just a hit in general, while the higher probability is a bust, or just a lesser player (like say Erick Flowers vs Scherff, Flowers position carried more value, but Scherrf was signicantly more talented). Again, I know you get this, but for whatever reason, when I argue this point when people want a RB top 10, or an inside LB of some sort top 10, or to spend a ton of cap money on a safety that can only be effective as a box option, it's seen as viewing my opinion as fact, when it's just viewing math, as well, math. If we know some of these things, than we know them. It's not that I'm smarter, as you and I have shown, I've been wrong and will continue to be wrong about a litany of things, players in particular, but things like this: positional scarcity and value, cost of replacement in FA, hit rate in round 1, etc, other people did the work. It's done. You can fall in love with a RB high, but you still shouldn't take them high. The math is in. It's not a value selection. It's why the Jamin Davis pick was such a huge mistake last year, its why nearly all the teams that took RB's so high in recent years were messy, poorly run teams. They're late to the party. I still see RB as a potential value late in round 1, really late, because the guaranteed fifth year option represents value since hopefully it will allow teams to be smart like the chargers, and avoid paying that horrible 2nd contract that teams like dallas, and LA paid Zeke, and Gurley, and instead let said player go and draft another one. That's where taking that Chubb, or Taylor in round 2 forces your hand in terms of an extension. Seems intutive, but I could be totally wrong.

 

Anyway, definitely wrong about plenty. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Listened to a couple of Keim podcasts back to back, one with the WP beat guy.  Over the years, from what observed he's nailed the most stuff about what will transpire in the off season.

 

Some of his takes along with the Sam Fortier from the Post, but most from Keim.

 

A.  As to QB expect them to be very aggressive 

B.  They see MLB as the main weaknesses of the defense -- its their code red spot

C.  They like how Holcomb developed this year.  They let him call the plays but they don't think that's his thing.  They want him to play outside.  Ditto Jamin 

D. FA they want to bring back Leno, McKissic -- he mentioned another but I am blanking out who that was, that he knows they want to bring back.  Leno he thinks they try to sign ASAP

E.  Seemed to hint that the hope in the FO is that Dan doesn't fall in love with some QB in the draft, doubled down that the FO viewed Haskins as a third round prospect.  He said the part about Dan in a roundabout way, without actually saying "Dan" but that's how it came off to me

F.  Said that RB is a hotter need than WR but I couldn't tell if that's something he heard or that's purely just his opinion but came off like RB might be something they chase

G. Heard Watson won't waive his no trade clause to come here

H.  Mentioned as to veterans Carr might be best case scenario if he becomes available

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 3, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[DWinzit]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

A.  As to QB expect them to be very aggressive 

B.  They see MLB as the main weaknesses of the defense -- its their code red spot

C.  They like how Holcomb developed this year.  They let him call the plays but they don't think that's his thing.  They want him to play outside.  Ditto Jamin 

D. FA they want to bring back Leno, McKissic -- he mentioned another but I am blanking out who that was, that he knows they want to bring back.  Leno he thinks they try to sign ASAP

E.  Seemed to hint that the hope in the FO is that Dan doesn't fall in love with some QB in the draft, doubled down that the FO viewed Haskins as a third round prospect.  He said the part about Dan in a roundabout way, without actually saying "Dan" but that's how it came off to me

F.  Said that RB is a hotter need than WR but I couldn't tell if that's something he heard or that's purely just his opinion but came off like RB might be something they chase

G. Heard Watson won't waive his no trade clause to come here

H.  Mentioned as to veterans Carr might be best case scenario if he becomes available

Would be sweet if they did get Leno, Mckissic and one of the main IOL along with perhaps RSJ and getting Terry a new contract.

Then in FA trying to address MLB and FS before the draft

That would put them in a nice spot for a QB then they can fill holes like CB, RB, WR and line depth

Edited January 3, 2022 by DWinzit

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

I think I take it that way because I see a bit of a gratuitious approach to references my misses. So on the one hand, I think it's silly to say rip me, instead of rip my opinions, on the other hand since i hear about Rosen, or Darnold, or whomever any time I mention anything w/the draft, it does feel a bit specific to me since i don't see the same dedication to referencing misses w/the draft w/others.

 

 

Most people here will reference their own mistakes.  So there is no need to do it.  Also, I don't think most of us care.  We've hit some, we've missed some.  To me at least its all about the effort in trying and spending the time to give takes.  Right or wrong.  Agree or disagree.  It's all cool in my book. 

 

I only care if that player is still relevant because they are on the team or someone continues to double down in a debate on an opinion about a player who in my view is proving to be a bust or there is a lesson relevant about that player that pertains to the next one.  And on that later point is why I bring it up with you.  Rosen and Darnold are from the ballyhooed 2018 draft but so what?  If you waited for that draft to come and passed over Watson and Mahomes for Rosen or Darnold you'd end up looking foolish.   That very subject about those drafts ironically discussed on a podcast I just listened to this morning. 

 

Only other reason why I reference it with you sometimes, is you come off like you got it 100% down or conversely someone is dead wrong when they disagree on some of your takes. I know you defend it or at least done so in the past by saying you might end up wrong about the player but your process is 100% dead on correct.  But yeah I don't think anyone here, me included has the perfect process to judge these players.  There is some science to it but plenty of art, too IMO.  That goes double IMO to the QB spot. 

 

2 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Curious what Vols taught you, or persuaded you to look for in particular? I tend to distrust tape grinding, i know it's necessary but I tend to view it as the least reliable technique to evaluate guys, especially once you've tiered out, all people carry in biases, and biases in what they look for tend to shade the heck out of tape evaluations. I get that analytics misses plenty too, but in terms of probabilities, it's still a more reliable approach when you find and refine tools that improve that methodology.

 

 

It's been awhile but its his take coupled with the Arians book on QBs that changed my approach.  In short, he told me to look for whether a scheme is protecing-masking a QB's weaknesses in a big way.  Is the QB heavily majoring in a sweet spot primarily and their accuracy is shaky outside of that sweet spot?   He made that point Haskins centric but I've used that mindset since.  That is, the accuracy does that QB have it cooking on all three levels?  in the flat -- intermediate -- deep?  In routes -- out routes.    Also, in the pros, the odds are good that you will get flushed out of the pocket enough and when that happens how does the QB react?  Do they get rattled?  Can they keep their eyes downfield or are they looking at the pressure headed their way?  How well do they readjust their feet when throwing on the move?

 

More than anything, he pushed me to spend the time to just watch the QB specifically versus casually watching games in real time and looking at highlights.  So I try to do that now with everyone.  Just watch the QB, not the full game and all the players at the same time but just the QB and look for certain things

 

As for the Arians book.  He made me think about processing speed.  He goes almost every QB can read a defense and see things in time.  It's about the ones who can see it and process it quickly. He among others cites work ethic as being the be all and end all by talking about the best golfers honing their golf swings.  They are perfectionists and the great Qbs are usually the same way.  The best golfers are really good in part because they fine tune their swing so much that their mechanics become borderline flawless and automatic -- muscle-memory.  The inconsistent QBs, often have inconsistent mechanics.  The great Qbs are often so obsessed with being great that they are constantly working on their mechanics where it becomes automatic.

 

So lets take a dude like Josh Rosen.  I've read in a few places that there are questions about his work ethic.  I watched 4 of his college games and 3 of his pro games where his accuracy seemed inconsistent and his decision making was just bad from my perspective.  Throws into coverage way too much.  In college, you dont always get picked off for errant throws but they aren't too hard to spot.   I used to think you can coach up decision making.  But i've come to believe decision making is often about vision and the ability to read the field quickly.   So yeah when I watch for example Rosen and Darnold with bad decisions game after game with inconsistent accuracy, I sour on them in spite of their pedigree,

 

I get that Rosen's footwork is amazing.  And Darnold for a big dude can roll in the pocket really well.  I get what some dig about them.  But I just don't buy that QBs with inconsistent accuracy, bad decision making and in Rosen's case questionable work ethics are poised for success.   Granted its my own subjective view based on my own observations but I've learned to tune out some of the media draft geeks because they seem to often major in highlights and quick sound bites. 

 

I recall for example Reddick showing over and over again when selling Haskins a play where he rolled in the pocket to the right and threw a beauty corner route TD and talked up how this shows how special he is.  If I didn't watch Haskins' games, I'd think hey maybe he's right.  But after watching them, I know that play was unusual for Haskins.  He actually didn't throw well on the move.  But its not hard to cherry pick throws from any QB prospect.  The key isn't aboout whether these QBs can do it once every now and then.  It's whether they consistently can make throws like that.

 

When some were arguing for Darnold, I kept hearing about his 46 yard run against Denver.  Cool.  Nice.  But that run doesn't define him as a player, its just one nice play.  I can probably easily put together 25 highlight plays to make just about any QB look like Aaron Rodgers.  But for me, its how often do they do it.  And volsmet pushed me to settle down and ignore that stuff and just watch the player and watch for patterns.

Edited January 3, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

It's not even completely clear who the teams that will take a QB are this year and some of those have multiple picks. Some teams may be looking to load up on picks for next year, too.

 

Agree its going to be wild and unpredictable.  I like Howell, I'd be happy with him.  He's just not my QB 1 unlike for you and some others here.  But to me I'd take Howell by a mile over Ridder or Strong or Zappe.  I am trying to figure out whether I'd take him over Willis or Pickett.  Not sure.  But I'll land on a take on that post Senior Bowl. 

Edited January 3, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

8 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

My gut right now is we end up with Corral or Howell.  They both seem so up Rivera's alley.  Those two are so tough and feisty and leaders -- with backgrounds that I think Rivera will love including military.

 

 

They had scouts from what I recall to watch all these top prospects as they should.

Do you think they'll fall to us? I'm a little worried we may be picking just too low for them. Thankfully it may be the NYG are just too stupid to go QB. But there are quite a few other teams that could target the position, namely Miami, Carolina, Pittsburgh, maybe Cleveland, Denver, Oakland, Seattle, Atlanta, Minny, all those teams you think could pip us in the '23 class to the supermodels of the QB class as I think you put it. There's greater hope for us here because it does look like we'll pick ahead of most of those teams, and I think like you, I think Willis will go MUCH MUCH higher than many people think. I expect him to be the first or second QB off the board simply because if he hits, he will be a grand slam, so somebody early is going to be willing to roll the dice on that, especially considering if it blows up in their face, the '23 class offers elite QB's w/better grades than him. Willis has mouth watering attributes and risks, I would guess, for now, that he and Corral go earlier than expected. After those guys are gone Howell is the only guy I'm interested in. Pickett's too old and sketchy for me, and I don't like the others with a 1st rounder. I love QB's that have explicable mediocre final years (it's a problem lol) because so often they present tantalizing value. Alas, they usually end up more like Clausen than Marino, but I can dream. 

[DWinzit]

37 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Agree its going to be wild and unpredictable.  I like Howell, I'd be happy with him.  He's just not my QB 1 unlike for you and some others here.  But to me I'd take Howell by a mile over Ridder or Strong or Zappe.  I am trying to figure out whether I'd take him over Willis or Pickett.  Not sure.  But I'll land on a take on that post Senior Bowl. 

Senior Bowl is going to be must watch TV. It was great to watch last year.

One thing good about needing a QB early is there are a number of quality players at other positions going early.

Currently I am thinking Corral, Pickett will go top 10. Howell and Willis will go before 20. 

I do not think the others deserve 1st round grades but could see Ridder taken late in the 1st so a team gets that 5th year rookie contract. d

I like Zappe more than some and could see him moving in the 2nd. Strong is the one I can't get a feel for.

I have been a Howell guy since last year. 

[method man]

39 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Do you think they'll fall to us? I'm a little worried we may be picking just too low for them. Thankfully it may be the NYG are just too stupid to go QB. But there are quite a few other teams that could target the position, namely Miami, Carolina, Pittsburgh, maybe Cleveland, Denver, Oakland, Seattle, Atlanta, Minny, all those teams you think could pip us in the '23 class to the supermodels of the QB class as I think you put it. There's greater hope for us here because it does look like we'll pick ahead of most of those teams, and I think like you, I think Willis will go MUCH MUCH higher than many people think. I expect him to be the first or second QB off the board simply because if he hits, he will be a grand slam, so somebody early is going to be willing to roll the dice on that, especially considering if it blows up in their face, the '23 class offers elite QB's w/better grades than him. Willis has mouth watering attributes and risks, I would guess, for now, that he and Corral go earlier than expected. After those guys are gone Howell is the only guy I'm interested in. Pickett's too old and sketchy for me, and I don't like the others with a 1st rounder. I love QB's that have explicable mediocre final years (it's a problem lol) because so often they present tantalizing value. Alas, they usually end up more like Clausen than Marino, but I can dream. 

 

We are virtually guaranteed one of Pickett, Corral, Willis and Howell where we sit. Given the great defensive talent in this draft (guys with All-Pro potential), I do not see 4 QBs going in the top 15 this year. Losing to NYG would help a lot to ensure we are better positioned to get our guy. Carolina is the one team ahead of us that I think is the most serious threat to take a QB and I bet they go hard for a veteran because Tepper (who is shaping up to be Dan Snyder 2.0) is impatient and Rhule is on the hot seat going into Year 3.

 

 

[The Consigliere]

7 hours ago, cakmoney61 said:

You are 100% correct about how the lack of a QB has held this team back (for most of the last 30 years).  Two things would really frighten me if I was hired to make that decision.  Drafting a bust at QB while Hamilton plays like a HOFer.  And drafting Hamilton who plays like a JAG while one of the QBs we could have drafted plays like Aaron Rodgers.

 

Whoever makes that ill-fated decision would need to go into hiding or just leave town.  And he should probably lose his job.

 

There's no reason to be concerned about that or filled with regret. Either we land the elite to top 10ish QB or we do not, other positions simply are irrelevant if you don't have a QB. The Ravens Model is historically nearly impossible to duplicate. Nearly every team that matters has an elite QB. There are exceptions, but they are rare, check through decade by decade to see who makes the final four consistently and it is always the same teams, teams with legit QB's, the only exception teams were the Ravens the last 20 years, and the Niners a decade ago, and the Bucs in the early aughts, but that method rarely has staying power, you saw the Bucs fall off pretty quickly, they had their short window and then it closed, and it's not a coindence that most of the time these teams sneak through, its because the elite QB's in the conference have retired, or the teams around the elite QB's fell apart. 

 

Get the QB, everything else is irrelevant other than the line to protect him. I get that you still try to build other aspects of your team, mind you, it's just if you don't have the QB, everything else other than the OL that will be needed to prevent the David Carr effect, won't move the needle substantially beyond typically either side of .500. 

 

Hopefully we find the QB this year, one can pray, we have a lot more pieces to give him than we had to give Shuler, or Frerotte or Ramsey or Campbell or RGIII or Haskins, so at least there's that. 

 

There's no reason to have pangs for guys like Hamilton, or Chase Young for that matter, we were reminded for the billonth time how little it matters to have elite ALL PRO talent on a DL if your QB is 32nd in the league. You just don't matter, period. The old Gibbs model does not work, the league has simply changed way too much, and is built far more for the QB than it ever was, especially during Gibbs I. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

Do you think they'll fall to us? I'm a little worried we may be picking just too low for them.

 

Tough to tell.  As you know from following this over the years, mocks are hit and miss but that goes triple at this time of year.    If things by chance fit the mocks than Howell slam dunk will be there at our pick and the only two QBs who might not are Corral and Pickett.

 

I think the veteran trade market needs to unfold to set the dominos in the draft.  For example, I think no way Carolina skips Qb in this draft but would do so if they traded for a veteran.  If Seattle traded Wilson do they get a veteran in return?  A lot needs to unfold.

 

I am a bit of a media junkie who loves listening to certain reporters who are often in the know.  Keim being among them.  Between his takes, Mike Silver's expose about what they considered doing last year and Rivera's own comments -- I don't think you are going to get what you want if that is punting on this until 2023.  All arrows seem pointing to them being very aggressive whether its for a veteran or trading up if they love a prospect, etc.

 

Hurney is supposedly the QB guru in the building who supposedly loved Herbert when he was coming out of the draft.    He is supposedly on this.  What his takes are on these QBs obviously we got no idea but I bet within time some stuff starts to leak. 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 3, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Redskins 2021]

We will not have to move to draft a QB. Carolina does not want a rookie and if seattle trades Wilson they will take Jones from Nyg. We should get are the first QB at 9.

[Skinsinparadise]

52 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Senior Bowl is going to be must watch TV. It was great to watch last year.

 

Agree.  Ditto the scuttlebutt that comes from it.

 

52 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

 

Currently I am thinking Corral, Pickett will go top 10. Howell and Willis will go before 20. 

 

 

Feels that way to me too but a lot could change still.

 

52 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

 

I like Zappe more than some and could see him moving in the 2nd. Strong is the one I can't get a feel for.

 

I've liked Zappe but he in particular (Willis, too) should be very interesting in the senior bowl. He had a really good supporting cast playing against mostly weak defenses.  And he doesnt seem to have one really elite skill, he's more of a jack of all trades type, so I'd like to see him in a more challenging setting.  

8 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

We will not have to move to draft a QB. Carolina does not want a rookie and if seattle trades Wilson they will take Jones from Nyg. We should get are the first QB at 9.

 

Maybe?  Those are obviously just guesses.   You got a zillion rumors out there.  Wilson stays.  Wilson gets traded to the Raiders and Carr is part of that package.  I've seen the Giant rumors but nothing about them insisting on Daniel Jones -- I think John Schneider is smarter than that but who knows?

 

As for Carolina the impression I get from what I've read is they are like us, they really really really want a QB anyway they could get one.  And like us, just because they want a stud veteran QB, doesn't mean they get one.  Both us and Carolina struck out on Stafford.  It could be the same for Carolina on Rodgers, Wilson, Watson or whomever hits the market.

Edited January 3, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

6 hours ago, skinny21 said:

I can see the benefit of using the analytics you talked about in the decision.  Makes sense.  

 

I think it also makes sense though to look at who is available and how much they help your team.  Personally, I think a stud linebacker probably lifts this defense a notch - it’s a pretty major hole for us and I’d argue that it’s a position that’s also hard to address in FA.  

 

The problem is that stud linebackers are very, very cheap in the draft and FA unless they are edges. Knowing that, you target them later. Yes there are occasional LB's that go very high that aren't traditional pass rushers, but those are rare, and also rarely worth the cost when you add in bust risk. Just think about the loads of elite LB's that hit over the years that aren't edge types. Nearly all of the best of them go basically somewhere between the mid and late first and early third. You don't use top 10 picks on these guys.  If you can get them in the late teens to late 2nd, that's what you do. I hated the Jamin Davis pick, and I hated it 50x as much when JOK was available, as these guys typically are, literally a full round later. When you look at the cost of these guys in terms of replacements in FA, when you look at where the 2nd to 3rd to 4th best LB goes in a given draft? It makes so much more sense to go LB hunting in round 2 than it ever does in round 1. Don't fall in love with the #1 guy, go hunting in FA, where they're cheaper, or go after guys in round 2 or 3 where usually most of the top 5 Mike LB's and other assorted non edge LB's are available cheap. 

 

You will land as many or close to as many hits, and for a much cheaper contract # while you try to hit on Edge's, corners, DT's, QB's, and WR's that are much more expensive in FA, and sometimes impossible to sign away to boot. Landing elite edge, DT, CB, WR, and QB talent in round 1 gives you a very expensive position, locked in for 5 years if you use the option at way below cost. FA LB's are so much cheaper, and getting those guys even in the draft is also way cheaper. It doesn't make cap or draft sense to fall in love w/those guys, especially in the top 10ish, and pay through the nose for them when you consider these factors. Instead just find OL's, DL's, QB's, WR's and the guys that cover them to fall in love with, and target guys like JOK in round 1, and celebrate that you got him a full round later than we got Jamin Davis while also developing another position of need like QB or WR, or corner, or whatever. 

 

I know I sound like a broken record, but at the end of the day, there's a way to do this that just gives you better odds of success, period, it doesn't guarantee you hit, you can still miss, and if you miss on a Ray Lewis, you will never stop weeping, but honestly, how many Ray Lewis's have their been? Not many, and even Ray Lewis went, where? That's right, late first. Save your picks and cap money and just distribute them in the way that allows you to build the most fiscally sound, highest likely return structure and go from there. Again, other than QB, I'm not demanding you draft a WR, or a LT, or a DT or whatever, I'm saying, round 1, go after huge collections of positions: OL/DL, WR/CB, QB, there's an endless pile of positions that can be filled doing that, and you'll rarely if ever reach like we did for Davis, then attack those positions like MIKE in round 2 when it makes more cap and draft pick value sense. You can never have enough OL Depth, and we need secondary and WR help beyond QB, so it's not like we don't have guys worth going after. 

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, kwitt said:

To those who think Corral should not have played in the bowl game.  Why didn't he sit out the last game of the regular season?  Was that not a risk too? Would that have hurt his draft spot? Where does this s*&t end?  Players who opt out might be making a wise financial decision but they are also quitters.  Plain and simple.  I love the guy for playing and not letting his teammates down.  I don't care if the injury ended his career it was the right thing to do.  

 

It's all a risk, but once he makes it that far, he's through, he's safe, he's clean bill of health with a complete college CV for scouts to look at. Your take is your take, I've already explained why I think it's 1000% wrong. The Quitters angle might make sense if they're paid pro's but they are non, they are volunteers playing a game that can provide them and their family a life time of financial security, or they can lose it all on one play. The reason players skip bowl games is because of what happened to Jake Butt, what happened to Jaylon Smith, what happened to Bryce Love, players who went from big $$$ and security, to nothing in the blink of an eye. They made it through the tunnel, they have nothing left to prove and this is essentially the unpaid internship for a career as an NFL football player. How much more risk must they pile up for them to not be quitters in your eyes? 

 

You need not reply. We'll never agree on this. All of the weight of risk is dumped on the unpaid player, none on the team or college, and if it goes wrong, tough ----, he loses. That's ridiculous, and you'll call him a quitter for skipping his last game after risking that career and pay day every practice, every scrimmage and every game for four years (or three). How much risk is enough to sate your demand that he risk everything for that college and the NCAA to rake in giant piles of $$$ for the program w/o earning a single thin dime for himself? Apparently the last second of the last play of the last bowl game, which many teams don't even make in the first place. 

 

Have your take, I just think it's fundamentally wrong to demand that of players, and call them quitters if for once in four years, ONCE, they finally put themselves and their family first, after risking it all thousands upon thousands of times. I get why you and others love and respect that these guys want to play to the final whistle of the final game, but it's the same exact reason RGIII wanted to come in and risk blowing apart his knee, which he did, in that playoff game nearly a decade ago, and like I thought then, and think now, RGIII, and these college players sometimes need to be protected from themselves in these cases. I get why they play, why they want to and why coaches, teammates, and fans laud them for it, but I also 1000% get, and respect those who decide to put themselves and their family first for the first time after decades of putting their body on the line in pop warner, high school football, and college football for their teammates and coaches already. 

 

I'd love for this to be the last I say on the subject since I've spoken to it way too much already and am clearly annoying plenty of you about it. That's my opinion on it, needless to say. 

[KDawg]

I’m kind of in agreement at backer. Lloyd and Dean are special. But a Denzel Perryman changes our entire defense.

 

Not so say those guys wouldn’t change it more. I’d love either of them but really what I want is for this team to address MIKE sometime this offseason with a quality player who has proven they can play MIKE. 
 

Pete Werner has come on strong and he was a second rounder. Lots of those guys. Logan Wilson last year. The UDFA from Philly. 
 

I’m not opposed to going backer in a year where we have the QB and they are the BPA. But I think we just need solid there. Not elite.

 

And rookies generally have a curve. Unfortunately this also rules out my dude Wydermyer. He’s not going to be the BPA and we have two tight ends who are quality and a pipeline behind them. 
 

We all know this year has to be QB. And for our draft position I actually think it’s a good year for QB. If we were top 3-5 I’d be a little more frustrated about it. But Howell at 9-11ish? Beautiful. 

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Most people here will reference their own mistakes.  So there is no need to do it.  Also, I don't think most of us care.  We've hit some, we've missed some.  To me at least its all about the effort in trying and spending the time to give takes.  Right or wrong.  Agree or disagree.  It's all cool in my book. 

 

I only care if that player is still relevant because they are on the team or someone continues to double down in a debate on an opinion about a player who in my view is proving to be a bust or there is a lesson relevant about that player that pertains to the next one.  And on that later point is why I bring it up with you.  Rosen and Darnold are from the ballyhooed 2018 draft but so what?  If you waited for that draft to come and passed over Watson and Mahomes for Rosen or Darnold you'd end up looking foolish.   That very subject about those drafts ironically discussed on a podcast I just listened to this morning. 

 

Only other reason why I reference it with you sometimes, is you come off like you got it 100% down or conversely someone is dead wrong when they disagree on some of your takes. I know you defend it or at least done so in the past by saying you might end up wrong about the player but your process is 100% dead on correct.  But yeah I don't think anyone here, me included has the perfect process to judge these players.  There is some science to it but plenty of art, too IMO.  That goes double IMO to the QB spot. 

 

 

It's been awhile but its his take coupled with the Arians book on QBs that changed my approach.  In short, he told me to look for whether a scheme is protecing-masking a QB's weaknesses in a big way.  Is the QB heavily majoring in a sweet spot primarily and their accuracy is shaky outside of that sweet spot?   He made that point Haskins centric but I've used that mindset since.  That is, the accuracy does that QB have it cooking on all three levels?  in the flat -- intermediate -- deep?  In routes -- out routes.    Also, in the pros, the odds are good that you will get flushed out of the pocket enough and when that happens how does the QB react?  Do they get rattled?  Can they keep their eyes downfield or are they looking at the pressure headed their way?  How well do they readjust their feet when throwing on the move?

 

More than anything, he pushed me to spend the time to just watch the QB specifically versus casually watching games in real time and looking at highlights.  So I try to do that now with everyone.  Just watch the QB, not the full game and all the players at the same time but just the QB and look for certain things

 

As for the Arians book.  He made me think about processing speed.  He goes almost every QB can read a defense and see things in time.  It's about the ones who can see it and process it quickly. He among others cites work ethic as being the be all and end all by talking about the best golfers honing their golf swings.  They are perfectionists and the great Qbs are usually the same way.  The best golfers are really good in part because they fine tune their swing so much that their mechanics become borderline flawless and automatic -- muscle-memory.  The inconsistent QBs, often have inconsistent mechanics.  The great Qbs are often so obsessed with being great that they are constantly working on their mechanics where it becomes automatic.

 

So lets take a dude like Josh Rosen.  I've read in a few places that there are questions about his work ethic.  I watched 4 of his college games and 3 of his pro games where his accuracy seemed inconsistent and his decision making was just bad from my perspective.  Throws into coverage way too much.  In college, you dont always get picked off for errant throws but they aren't too hard to spot.   I used to think you can coach up decision making.  But i've come to believe decision making is often about vision and the ability to read the field quickly.   So yeah when I watch for example Rosen and Darnold with bad decisions game after game with inconsistent accuracy, I sour on them in spite of their pedigree,

 

I get that Rosen's footwork is amazing.  And Darnold for a big dude can roll in the pocket really well.  I get what some dig about them.  But I just don't buy that QBs with inconsistent accuracy, bad decision making and in Rosen's case questionable work ethics are poised for success.   Granted its my own subjective view based on my own observations but I've learned to tune out some of the media draft geeks because they seem to often major in highlights and quick sound bites. 

 

I recall for example Reddick showing over and over again when selling Haskins a play where he rolled in the pocket to the right and threw a beauty corner route TD and talked up how this shows how special he is.  If I didn't watch Haskins' games, I'd think hey maybe he's right.  But after watching them, I know that play was unusual for Haskins.  He actually didn't throw well on the move.  But its not hard to cherry pick throws from any QB prospect.  The key isn't aboout whether these QBs can do it once every now and then.  It's whether they consistently can make throws like that.

 

When some were arguing for Darnold, I kept hearing about his 46 yard run against Denver.  Cool.  Nice.  But that run doesn't define him as a player, its just one nice play.  I can probably easily put together 25 highlight plays to make just about any QB look like Aaron Rodgers.  But for me, its how often do they do it.  And volsmet pushed me to settle down and ignore that stuff and just watch the player and watch for patterns.

 

Thanks for your thoughts. In terms of my pov, I definitely come across that way to people, that's obvious lol, it's not what I intend, lol, but that's the results. This is a situation more where:

 

#1 I absolutely believe there is a right way to approach offseasons and teams habitually don't do this right because the interests of owners, GM's, coaches and fans are different than what actually typically is the most efficacious approach.

 

#2 I have no idea who the right players are to target, within the apporach.

 

I think I'm 100% right about team building, I do think it's fact based because the evidence is there. I haven't discovered it or did the work, I've just read the work that others have done and it's based on cold hard facts and studies done over years upon years of sampling data. If you know something is 63% successful given 10000 simulations, and something else is 49% successful in 10000 simulations, it seems to me you should do the former, not the latter.

 

That's where my beliefs about team building come from (in terms of QB, and in terms of targeting of positions in round 1, w/fifth year options versus other positions and how much to spend in FA etc). The works been done on that stuff and it's understood.

 

It's the details I don't know about, who really is the best player? I don't know. I can tell you in round 1, especially in a blue chip zone, if you don't like a QB, OL, DL, Edge, CB or WR (or safety if he's a complete safety, and not a box guy)  you should trade down, period. Full Stop. You should not be pulling Jamin Davis picks top 16ish. 

 

But again within the parameters of that, I have no idea. I got everything wrong in the '18 QB draft except for Lamar. I got the '20 QB draft backwards for the most part. I love Fields and Lawrence and they were uninspiring for now etc.

 

I don't know the answers for any of these players, just guesses, I have a damn good hit rate on WR's and RB's and okay hit rate on QB's when it comes to dynasty lol, but that's all I focus on in the offseason because that's my jam after 30 years of reskins misery. I know less about the rest beyond team building strategies.

 

I also think QB is just flat out the hardest thing to project in sports period beyond soccer players that are 12, 17-18 year old baseball players etc. But I will say this, after a billion years of 50/50 QB success rates in round 1 of the draft, it does seem like certain things matter a lot more than others namely:

 

1. The arm (if it's Danny woeful, it won't work, but beyond that, it's irrelevant, as long as it's adequate, your fine, see Manning, Brees, Montana, even velocity Watson, none have rockets all were/are elite).

 

2.Processing Speed.

 

3. First In/Last Out: The kind of guy that eats/drinks/sleeps with the ball and dreams the game. That kind of passion matters, it provides the leadership, and work rate to build on the natural talent.

 

4. Mental Make Up: Is he a George/RGIII/Haskins, or is he a Brady? Or something close? Mental Makeup matters.

 

That's what I'd want from interviews, and study. How much of that can we learn from tape, from interviews etc? It's absolutely critical, beyond that to me it's luck. The first two traits are game tape skills you can generally figure out that way, the latter two require interviews and information we wont have, but teams will if they do due diligence. 

 

But again, after all that, it's up to the fates, who the hell knows if they'll hit, but at this point, I think if you can check mark those four traits, you at least have improved the liklihood that you have something legit. 

 

I should have added Clean Medicals too.  

[Redskins 2021]

5 hours ago, OMacAttack said:

So current draft order and whether they are looking to draft a QB obviously a lot to be decided yet and a long off-season but as it stands currently.

 

1. Jacksonville: 2-14 - No - they have Lawrence

 

2. Detroit: 2-13-1 - Yes - Goff isn't their answer could draft a replacement

 

3. Houston: 4-12 - Maybe - Do they like Mills enough to skip a QB this year?

 

4. New York Jets: 4-12 - No - Building around Wilson

 

5. New York Giants: 4-12 - Maybe - Jones may be out could see them swinging in the draft if that's the case.

 

6. Carolina: 5-11 - Yes - Darnold experiment failed they need to start over

 

7. New York Jets (via Seattle): 6-10 - Still no. Could see someone try to jump up to either of the Jets picks to draft a QB

 

8. New York Giants (via Chicago): 6-10 - Still Maybe all depends on Jones / Trades

 

9. Washington: 6-10 - Yes - Clearly we need a QB

 

10. Atlanta: 7-9 - Maybe - Ryan's replacement could be drafted this year

 

11. Denver: 7-9 - Maybe - is Drew Lock their guy going forward?

 

12. Minnesota: 7-9 - Yes - It seems like Kirk is on the outs

 

13. Cleveland: 7-8 - Maybe - My guess is Mayfield stays but crazy things happen

 

We could pick as low as 13 depending how the last week plays out.

 

I dont know if any of the Qb are.good enough to take this high someone will reach, unfortunately it will be us.

[OMacAttack]

20 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

I dont know if any of the Qb are.good enough to take this high someone will reach, unfortunately it will be us.

Every year the QBs drift up the board this year will be the same.

Even if they don't we get our pick of the litter I'll take that

[Skinsinparadise]

14 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Thanks for your thoughts. In terms of my pov, I definitely come across that way to people, that's obvious lol, it's not what I intend, lol, but that's the results. This is a situation more where:

 

#1 I absolutely believe there is a right way to approach offseasons and teams habitually don't do this right because the interests of owners, GM's, coaches and fans are different than what actually typically is the most efficacious approach.

 

#2 I have no idea who the right players are to target, within the apporach.

 

I think I'm 100% right about team building, I do think it's fact based because the evidence is there. I haven't discovered it or did the work, I've just read the work that others have done and it's based on cold hard facts and studies done over years upon years of sampling data. If you know something is 63% successful given 10000 simulations, and something else is 49% successful in 10000 simulations, it seems to me you should do the former, not the latter.

 

That's where my beliefs about team building come from (in terms of QB, and in terms of targeting of positions in round 1, w/fifth year options versus other positions and how much to spend in FA etc). The works been done on that stuff and it's understood.

 

 

I agree with many of your thoughts.  Just for me, I think only place where we may depart is I think i have more limits as for playing the odds.  Context sometimes to me can play in with a heavy hand where I'll depart from the numbers.  But I mostly do play the odds.  I used to be a teacher's assistant in stats in college eons ago, i forgot much of what I knew math wise but I retained the philiosophy of playing the odds and using stats to make decisions.   But the trick is, numbers are useful but context is still key.

 

Today, it's not the main thing I do job wise but part of what i do includes doing polls which involves looking at numbers and explaining the context of those numbers.  In short, numbers are really helpful in what i do but the context behind the numbers are equally important from my experience.   So I borrow some of that approach to this.  I am not saying this is the way to do things.  I am just explaning my mindset.  

 

There are people on the QB threads over the years who think i am an extremist on the QB position, that i value it too much.  Among other things, there is a dude there who constantly preaches that the value of a Qb might be overstated and their value is very dependant on about how much cap room the QB consumes.  He's obsessed with value. I agree with it to an extent but at times i don't.  I don't want a crap QB no matter how cheap I get them.  i do agree that a good rookie QB is very valuable.  There is another dude who constantly pushes the rare examples of low round QBs succeeding and saying why not us?  i like both of those people as posters.  But they drive me crazy sometimes.      To my mind they are missing the forest for the trees when they take their point in my mind too far.  One IMO can be penny wise and pound foolish.  And the other to me at times can live in fantasy.  

 

You take it a notch even higher than I do about QBs.    Bringing this point to this debate.  It's fun on this thread to give it my own shot at what i think of these players.  i could be right.  I could be wrong.  I got no ego about it.  The only thing i'll pat myself on the back about it is going through the trouble of spending the time to watch and read about these guys.  Others here do it too.   And do a great job.  We are messing around and having fun doing it. 

 

 I obviously respect scouts who do this for a living.  i met Scot McCloughan eons ago, talked about it on the draft thread at the time. i talked to him for hours.  Won an auction to do it.  He knew more about football than I'll ever know and by a mile to say the least.  But at the same time, it weasn't hard to pick out that he doesn't care about the mock drafts.  I care from an entertainment purpose.  I listen to almost all of these dranftnik podcasts among other things.  I find these guys very entertaining.  But I don't treat their takes as gospel.  

 

So bringing this back here, there is so much value I give the media draft geeks.  I value much more leaks from scouts.  When Bon McGinn does his draft reports right before the draft, that stuff to me is gold because he's quoting scouts.  Not that they get everything right but they do nail much more than the Kiper types.   As far as anayltics go, tough for me to ride them on the QB spot as gospel.   I do like reading their different stats.  PFF for example provides grades that aren't easy to find including completion rate for all three levels among other things.  Great stuff.  But to me they are a tool, not the be all and end all.  I'll post some of the stats I compiled from PFF about all these guys soon. 

 

No one has cracked the code to find franchise QBs.  I am not pretending I am the first to do it.     but what the heck if I think for example we might be able to get Corral at lets say 11 and believe next year we'd be picking in the late teens and more in lets say the range to take dudes like Rattler.  I'll give it a shot and my take will be an apples to apples comparison of those two players for example.   And if I think Corral has a shot to be a franchise QB even though some media draft geeks don't like the class -- I'll give it a shot and say my peace. 😀

 

And as for stats. i think more for QBs than any other spot, context is king.  For example, Corral's stats were even better the previous season at least in the context of being profilic.  So what happened?  Did he regress?  I don't think so.  He had better weapons the previous season.  And he improved his skills this year as for decision making so some of his stats did improve on that front.  He hurt his ankle during the season and lost some playmakers and that effected his stats towards the later part of the season.  When I look at his stats I have to factor context.

 

The other thing with QBs is its so intangible driven according to so many coaches.  I don't like what i've read for example about Rattler's intangibles.  I like Corral's intangibles better.  Ditto Howell.  QB is a very personality driven position -- by the nature of your position it helps to be a leader of men.  And as i stated in other post, your work ethic looms very large according to multiple coaches who are known to be QB gurus.  The numbers alone don't really smoke out variables like that. 

 

So yeah I do respect anayltics.  I've actually had to defend using them multiple times in some threads.  But to me there is a limit to them. 

14 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

 

1. The arm (if it's Danny woeful, it won't work, but beyond that, it's irrelevant, as long as it's adequate, your fine, see Manning, Brees, Montana, even velocity Watson, none have rockets all were/are elite).

 

2.Processing Speed.

 

3. First In/Last Out: The kind of guy that eats/drinks/sleeps with the ball and dreams the game. That kind of passion matters, it provides the leadership, and work rate to build on the natural talent.

 

4. Mental Make Up: Is he a George/RGIII/Haskins, or is he a Brady? Or something close? Mental Makeup matters.

 

That's what I'd want from interviews, and study. How much of that can we learn from tape, from interviews etc? It's absolutely critical, beyond that to me it's luck. The first two traits are game tape skills you can generally figure out that way, the latter two require interviews and information we wont have, but teams will if they do due diligence. 

 

But again, after all that, it's up to the fates, who the hell knows if they'll hit, but at this point, I think if you can check mark those four traits, you at least have improved the liklihood that you have something legit. 

 

I should have added Clean Medicals too.  

 

Agree.  I'd add some things but those variables are key.

Edited January 4, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

Slightly off topic...

 

Caleb Williams just entered the Transfer Portal. 

 

Oklahoma has lost three 5* QBs in the last month. Rattler, apparently, is at South Carolina already

[Ball Security]

36 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Slightly off topic...

 

Caleb Williams just entered the Transfer Portal. 

 

Oklahoma has lost three 5* QBs in the last month. Rattler, apparently, is at South Carolina already

Saw something from his dad saying that they are going to the best place to develop him for the NFL.  I’d imagine Bama and USC is out.  What other program makes sense for him?  Could it be Clemson?

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

Saw something from his dad saying that they are going to the best place to develop him for the NFL.  I’d imagine Bama and USC is out.  What other program makes sense for him?  Could it be Clemson?

Not with the season Lawrence is having.

 

I’m guessing USC. To be with Riley. He’s developed Hurts, Murray, Mayfield.