2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[HTTRDynasty]

Here we go 🙄

 

 

[Going Commando]

He is, very obviously, one of the most functionally powerful college offensive linemen I've ever seen.  He's the Hulk.

[HTTRDynasty]

Yeah, but Payne... 😔

 

 

[Going Commando]

James's value is bizarrely overstated.  But just comparing him to other safeties, Adams, Fitzpatrick, and Harrison Smith are clearly the cream of the crop, not him.  But beyond them, there are lesser guys like Mathieu, and Simmons, and Byard who are more accomplished than James and yet people don't freak out about them and overrate their value like they do with James.  It's been happening with him since his freshman season at FSU.

[Fresh8686]

 

 

 

Edited July 17, 2020 by Fresh8686

[Going Commando]

Decker is a good comparison for Cosmi.  Similar skills and salty style of play.

 

Man I really hope Antonio Gibson is a home run.  Still stings that we passed on Josh Jones to draft him.  Then we wouldn't have to be so needy on the OL heading into this murky 2021 draft class.

[Anselmheifer]

On 7/15/2020 at 10:28 AM, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I tend to agree with you, but an alarming consensus among outside observers about the quality of various parts of our roster is giving me doubts.  I already know how bad our secondary is, and I'm kind of banking on a scheme change + high level DL play to mask the flaws in the secondary and get our DBs to bounce back or break out. 

 

 

Beyond that, pretty much everyone is projecting us to have the worst group of offensive skill players, and the room is probably right.  I do like Gandy-Golden, but between the messed up rookie offseason and the chief weakness in his game was that he needed to get so much stronger and more physical to make the jump to the NFL, there is no way he's going be ready to play a ton of good snaps in 2020.  Losing Harmon to injury torpedoed the only promising depth we had.  Hell, he probably have played starter's snaps.  We're skeletal thin and an injury to McLaurin would leave us with no traditional outside receivers.  We'll be trying to cobble something together out of hybrid players who don't have the route running skills to really thrive in that role like Gibson and Isaiah Wright, or a perennial end of bench/practice squad guy like Cam Sims.  I'm not a big Cam Sims fan at all, I think it's a testament to how weak we are at WR that we haven't been able to move on from him for better options.  TE is obviously bad too, but Moss and Thomas the Alabama kid are at least intriguing bodies who could move up the depth chart in what should be a totally open competition.

 

It feels like the only way we won't end up bottom of the league with this group is if Guice has a major break out season and Haskins steps up big time and carries everyone.  Highly doubt Haskins is ready to do that, and it's not comfortable placing hope in Guice at this point.

 

 

I don't think the cupboard is as bare at the skill positions as you suggest. We have quality RB's and depth at that position to cover for injury. We have a true WR1. We have an impact slot. I really think that Sims has a higher ceiling than Jamison Crowder. And it's a huge advantage to go into this season knowing what we have in Sims. At the beginning of last season we were just throwing crap against the board. We didn't know what we had at any of the skill positions, including QB, and that made it impossible to have any kind of competent offensive game plan. It is true that we don't have a WR3 or a TE. But, I'd expect us to throw the ball to Gibson and McKissic and Guice a good bit to make up for the lack of a TE. 

 

I think most of our success is going to come down to Haskins and the defense. If Haskins progresses, we are going to be at least mediocre. 

 

Also, think of how close we could be to having a genuinely explosive offense. Draft Freiermuth and add an explosive outside WR in the draft or through trade or FA and in 2021, if we can protect Haskins, our offense could be top 12, IMHO. 

 

 

https://twitter.com/Matt_Gajewski/status/1281289077212364801?s=20

 

Here is my hot take that shouldn't be one. Rondale Moore is miles better than Jaylen Waddle. Miles.Moore had 114 receptions on 136 targets as a true Freshman? Ridiculous. He is probably a tiny tick slower than Tyreek Hill, and maybe Waddle, but Rondale Moore ran a verified 4.33 coming out of HS. Tyreek ran a 4.29 at his pro day. Moore is so super explosive, quick and powerful. He's got a 43 inch vert and looks like Tyreek doing standing back flips. You want to know how he's look against NFL caliber DB's? Watch his game against Ohio State. 12 receptions for 170 yards and 2 TD's. I think the team that drafts Moore is going to get a versatile weapon that you want to get the ball to in space very much like a Tyreek. I'm not sure he is an ideal pick for us, because I think he might be a rich man's Steven Sims, and we could use an outside receiver. But, I love Rondale Moore. 

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/scouting-patrick-surtain-ii-alabama-cb-similar-to-byron-jones

 

I generally like Daniel Jeremiah, but I'm not sure that I agree that Surtain is similar to Byron Jones. Byron Jones is a super twitchy elite athlete, but isn't super long. Jones is 6'0" with 32" arms. Surtain is going to eat based on his length and physicality. I do think he could be super productive in a press man scheme with an  elite front 4, and Surtain certainly would be a good talent/scheme match for a team like Seattle, San Francisco, or.....Washington. 

[Going Commando]

7 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

I don't think the cupboard is as bare at the skill positions as you suggest. We have quality RB's and depth at that position to cover for injury. We have a true WR1. We have an impact slot. I really think that Sims has a higher ceiling than Jamison Crowder. And it's a huge advantage to go into this season knowing what we have in Sims. At the beginning of last season we were just throwing crap against the board. We didn't know what we had at any of the skill positions, including QB, and that made it impossible to have any kind of competent offensive game plan. It is true that we don't have a WR3 or a TE. But, I'd expect us to throw the ball to Gibson and McKissic and Guice a good bit to make up for the lack of a TE. 

 

I think most of our success is going to come down to Haskins and the defense. If Haskins progresses, we are going to be at least mediocre. 

 

Also, think of how close we could be to having a genuinely explosive offense. Draft Freiermuth and add an explosive outside WR in the draft or through trade or FA and in 2021, if we can protect Haskins, our offense could be top 12, IMHO. 

 

You make some good points, and I had a similar conclusion in the Haskins thread when I was writing a post about a new element to our offensive scheme.  We are fairly rich in running back talent.  At least three good ones and two good WR/RB hybrids.  Gibson and McKissic are really interesting weapons when you start imagining for them H-Back roles in a motion-heavy offense.

 

I'm going to move past my sour grapes over Josh Jones and appreciate that we added something unique with Gibson.  It's interesting that there aren't any really close physical comparisons to him among WRs on mockdraftable like there are with most other players:  https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/antonio-gibson

 

CJ Prosise and Laviska Shenault look like the readiest comparisons, but Gibson is quite a bit faster than they are.  I think he's a Percy Harvin type of player, but Harvin wasn't 6'1 220.  Gibson has a size, speed, and pass catching combination that is unique.  Usually you're only really getting one thing with these hybrid backfield/receiver types, and a defense can key on what they do well.  It'll be a smaller type like McKissic who is much more of a threat as a receiver, or it'll be a runningback with good hands who isn't really going to be snagging passes to beat tough coverage or taking the top off of the deep zones like a true WR.  Gibson will do both.  He can absolutely beat a safety or deep corner down a middle seam and he can run through box defenders.  It makes the packages that use an H-Back or 20/21 personnel legitimately dangerous.

 

And it mitigates the thin WR and TE groups we have.

 

And you're right that having a true do-it-all WR like McLaurin is big.  He can be schemed into any alignment and role and it lets us tailor our designs to compensate for lesser players at other spots in order to put them in positions to succeed.

 

I don't think this season will come down to just Haskins on offense though.  There could definitely be a situation where he plays pretty well at an individual level but we still lose a lot.  We need a lot of different guys to step up too in order to be successful.  Scherff and Moses and Roullier are going to have to adjust well to the new offense.  The RBs are going to have to carry a heavy load along with Haskins.  And our young WRs are going to have to get better in a hurry.  And Scott Turner is going to have to be really creative and do a great job of teaching and calling games.  But this is how it is for most teams who are making scheme changes and are using a lot of young players for a ton of snaps.

[Skinsinparadise]

On 7/16/2020 at 10:18 PM, HTTRDynasty said:

Yeah, but Payne... 😔

 

 

 

That one pains me, pun intended.  It was the only draft where I screamed at my TV when our pick came in.  It's not that I disliked Payne.  I thought he was a good player.  He's thus far been pretty much what i thought he would be -- good.  Nothing special, not great.    I'll give him a pass and hope that Chase Young brings out his best.  Will see.  So for that reason and that reason alone I'll leave it as an open ended question but at the moment that move doesn't look hot.

 

Doug Williams admitted that there wasn't consensus about picking Payne.  And if you read the tea leaves-hints -- it was pretty clear it was Doug, Bruce for Payne.  Kyle-Jay for either James or another player. I'd guess Dan or someone else was the tiebreaker. 

 

James to me screamed as great before the draft.  I'll start with the intangibles.  Do we recall anyone highlight Payne's intangibles like crazy?  There was nothing wrong with him on that front but no one screamed anything special about him on that front as for leadership, etc.  Again nothing bad on that front either.   But he came off more as a dude that blended in than stand out.  I don't recall anyone screaming about his intangibles the way they were about James and to a degree Fitzpatrick that draft.  James was depicted as a major locker room leader -- charismatic guy,.  He was described as a tone setter for his team and worked like a maniac. 

 

Then as a player, the dude can do it all including pass rush.  A swiss army knife before that term became as cool as it is today. 😪

 

 

[Anselmheifer]

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

You make some good points, and I had a similar conclusion in the Haskins thread when I was writing a post about a new element to our offensive scheme.  We are fairly rich in running back talent.  At least three good ones and two good WR/RB hybrids.  Gibson and McKissic are really interesting weapons when you start imagining for them H-Back roles in a motion-heavy offense.

 

I'm going to move past my sour grapes over Josh Jones and appreciate that we added something unique with Gibson.  It's interesting that there aren't any really close physical comparisons to him among WRs on mockdraftable like there are with most other players:  https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/antonio-gibson

 

And it mitigates the thin WR and TE groups we have.

 

I don't think this season will come down to just Haskins on offense though.  There could definitely be a situation where he plays pretty well at an individual level but we still lose a lot.  We need a lot of different guys to step up too in order to be successful.  Scherff and Moses and Roullier are going to have to adjust well to the new offense.  The RBs are going to have to carry a heavy load along with Haskins.  And our young WRs are going to have to get better in a hurry.  And Scott Turner is going to have to be really creative and do a great job of teaching and calling games.  But this is how it is for most teams who are making scheme changes and are using a lot of young players for a ton of snaps.

 

I'm not very upset about Josh Jones. We had apparently zeroed in on Charles in the pre-draft process and we got him. We are so thin at tackle. I generally trust Kyle and if he didn't want Jones, I'm fine with it. I'm assuming there are reasons Jones fell, although that can be said of anyone that falls, and those guys often represent an opportunity. 

In any case, we DO remain thin at tackle, however. Imagine if Charles and Moses both go down to injury. And Scherff gets hurt every year. I'd hate to see Haskins' development ruined by poor OL play. 

 

I feel like with Gibson and Sims and McLaurin in the fold, all we need is an impact TE and someone legitimate at the other outside WR spot, so they can't just roll coverage to Terry. If we could buff up our OL and add that TE, our offense could be immediately legitimate. We aren't going to be a top 10-12 offense unless Haskins really makes a leap, which I think he can do. 

I think my dream scenario is starting to look like Sewell at 3, then moving back up into the 1st and grabbing Freiermuth. Grab a mid range FA WR, and I think our offense would be transformed. Unfortunately, we likely won't draft high enough for Sewell and moving back into round one for Freiermuth would probably be cost prohibitive. 

 

Also, am I the only one that looks at Kyle Pitts and wonders if he's really that much better than David Njoku? They look like similar players with similar skill sets. Njoku will likely be available for a mid to late round pick next year, and Pitts will cost a 1st. Give me Njoku and a 1st round pick over Pitts and a 4th or 5th. 

[Skinsinparadise]

If so, #1 round pick, that would make quite the fun 2021 pre draft season albeit not a fun ride this year. Not that I take Florio that seriously but he's among plenty of others who think we got the worst team in the NFL.    Personally I think they go 6-10 right now. 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

48 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

 

Also, am I the only one that looks at Kyle Pitts and wonders if he's really that much better than David Njoku? They look like similar players with similar skill sets. Njoku will likely be available for a mid to late round pick next year, and Pitts will cost a 1st. Give me Njoku and a 1st round pick over Pitts and a 4th or 5th. 

 

Njoku according to some who cover him lacks the intangibles and hence his struggles. 

 

Pitts to me is more impressive.  My comparison is maybe Engram but I don't think he's as bad of a blocker as Engram. 

 

I spent a lot of time watching TEs in the last two drafts.  Pitts jumped at me big time from that context because my overriding impression of him and I posted it right after I reviewed him -- the dude moves like a receiver.  He's so fluid in and out of his breaks.  Most tight ends that I've watched have somewhat of a lumbering quality to how they move. 

 

Heck even Chase Claypool who was touted as the athletic freak among the TEs in the last draft -- to me has some lumbering-stuffiness to how he moves.  Ditto Albert O who was the next best athlete. 

 

With Pitts, he looks no different in how he moves then a receiver.  He's fluid, agile, smooth.  I know nothing of his intangibles but if he's a hard worker type - to me the dude screams TE star. 

Edited July 21, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

On 7/17/2020 at 12:59 AM, stevemcqueen1 said:

James's value is bizarrely overstated.  But just comparing him to other safeties, Adams, Fitzpatrick, and Harrison Smith are clearly the cream of the crop, not him.  But beyond them, there are lesser guys like Mathieu, and Simmons, and Byard who are more accomplished than James and yet people don't freak out about them and overrate their value like they do with James.  It's been happening with him since his freshman season at FSU.

 

Don't understand it.  He's unfortunately often injured and looks worse coming back from injury.

 

Great freshman season.  Got hurt.  Good comeback season with some glaring issues, possibly still not fully healthy.  Gets drafted and has a pretty good rookie season, looks better than he did his last year of college.  Then he gets hurt again, comes back, and doesn't look like he did as a rookie anymore.

 

Next season will be further removed from his injury and if history repeats he'll have a bounce back year.

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 It's not that I disliked Payne.  I thought he was a good player.  He's thus far been pretty much what i thought he would be -- good.  Nothing special, not great.    I'll give him a pass and hope that Chase Young brings out his best.

Yup, good and not great.  I'm giving him a pass for his two seasons so far due to scheme.  He should be a beast of a 1 gapping NT.  Like a better Kyle Williams in Buffalo.  But he was never used like that.  Hopefully the 4-3 and new scheme let's him showcase his potential.

 

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Doug Williams admitted that there wasn't consensus about picking Payne.  And if you read the tea leaves-hints -- it was pretty clear it was Doug, Bruce for Payne.  Kyle-Jay for either James or another player. I'd guess Dan or someone else was the tiebreaker. 

Chris Cooley said if it wasn't Payne then it would have been Tremaine Edmunds. 

 

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I don't recall anyone screaming about his intangibles the way they were about James and to a degree Fitzpatrick that draft.  James was depicted as a major locker room leader -- charismatic guy,.  He was described as a tone setter for his team and worked like a maniac. 

 

 

 

James was well liked on the intangibles front for sure.  But the cream of the crop in that draft was definitely Minkah Fitzpatrick.  He was nicknamed "Saban's Son".  Minkahs intangibles and football smarts were considered unbelievable.

[HTTRDynasty]

32 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Don't understand it.  He's unfortunately often injured and looks worse coming back from injury.

 

Great freshman season.  Got hurt.  Good comeback season with some glaring issues, possibly still not fully healthy.  Gets drafted and has a pretty good rookie season, looks better than he did his last year of college.  Then he gets hurt again, comes back, and doesn't look like he did as a rookie anymore.

 

 

So now 1st team All Pro equals "a pretty good rookie season"?  C'mon man.

 

And he was PFF's 8th highest graded safety last year - even on limited snaps and coming back from injury.  He started all 16 games as a rookie before getting a stress fracture in his fifth metatarsal in practice.  He's not exactly Derrius Guice, suffering from non-stop soft-tissue injuries.  A broken foot is a freak injury and doesn't make someone injury-prone IMO.

[Anselmheifer]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

With Pitts, he looks no different in how he moves then a receiver.  He's fluid, agile, smooth.  I know nothing of his intangibles but if he's a hard worker type - to me the dude screams TE star. 

 

Thanks for your breakdown. It's really the opportunity cost that makes me nervous about Pitts. It's tough projecting TE's from the college game to the pro's, and he's going to cost a first. How do you compare him to Freiermuth? I don't love Freiermuth as a top 10 prospect but I think he has value between 15 and 20, and especially later than that. Freiermuth has a much better frame for blocking and I think could be more successful as a traditional in line TE. That might be more important for us. If we are running a Coryell offense with a lot of motion, passes to the RB and TE, and play action, we'd probably like to be able to disguise what we are going to be doing. 

 

 

On 7/17/2020 at 12:59 AM, stevemcqueen1 said:

James's value is bizarrely overstated.  But just comparing him to other safeties, Adams, Fitzpatrick, and Harrison Smith are clearly the cream of the crop, not him.  But beyond them, there are lesser guys like Mathieu, and Simmons, and Byard who are more accomplished than James and yet people don't freak out about them and overrate their value like they do with James.  It's been happening with him since his freshman season at FSU.

 

James can be over rated and still be a better pick than Payne. I do agree that Fitzpatrick is better than James. Especially given the value of coverage in today's game.  And James has been injury prone. But Payne has been middling. Hopefully Payne has a break out year, but I'm not that confident. 

 

McQueen, I think you are talking me into Cosmi. I think he's likely to be one of the players that we might consider, given that I doubt we are choosing top 6. 

Edited July 21, 2020 by Anselmheifer

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

50 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

So now 1st team All Pro equals "a pretty good rookie season"?  C'mon man.

 

And he was PFF's 8th highest graded safety last year - even on limited snaps and coming back from injury.  He started all 16 games as a rookie before getting a stress fracture in his fifth metatarsal in practice.  He's not exactly Derrius Guice, suffering from non-stop soft-tissue injuries.  A broken foot is a freak injury and doesn't make someone injury-prone IMO.

 

Sample size is too small to say he's injury prone, that's fair.

 

He tore his knee up in college and then upon return looked stiffer than he had before when moving laterally and changing direction.  Then in his rookie season those movements looked smoother.

 

He broke his foot, came back, and wasn't making the plays he used to, he was a beat behind.

 

I'm not saying he sucked in 2019 and was making the wrong reads.  I'm saying he wasn't arriving in time to make plays that he did as a rookie.

 

A lot of credit has to go to that defensive staff, putting players in positions to flourish.  That playoff game plan against the Ravens was a roll of the dice and it worked.  They used Derwin well as a rookie and let him be aggressive in his assignments.  He produced.  But that didn't happen after returning from injury in his second season.

 

I'm expecting him to look better in year 3, than he did in year 2.  But it's hard to not see this trend...

 

Plays great

Gets injured

Returns and plays well but not at the previous level.

Finally looks healthy again and plays great

Gets injured

Returns and plays well but not at the previous level.

 

If the trend continues he should be back to great in year 3.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

9 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Chris Cooley said if it wasn't Payne then it would have been Tremaine Edmunds. 

 

 

An insider here said it they loved James and Fitzpatrick the most, Edmonds next but who knows.  I've heard different reporters say they knew they loved James.

 

I actually liked Edmonds, too.  I'd take him over Payne as well.   Like I said, I'll see if Payne blossoms this year.  But thus far the dude is a good player -- solid but not a star, not great.  

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/bills-coordinator-tremaine-edmunds-epitome-of-what-team-is-looking-for-in-a-leader-and-star-player/

One player who evolved into a leader for the Bills' defense last season was linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. Buffalo selected Edmunds with the No. 16 overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft out of Virginia Tech, and he made an immediate impact. Despite being just 20 years old, Edmunds led the team in combined tackles that year with 121, while also recording two sacks, two interceptions and two forced fumbles in his rookie season. In 2019, he again led the team in combined tackles with 115, and also notched 1.5 sacks and one interception -- a stat line which was awarded by his first Pro Bowl trip. 

 

8 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

Thanks for your breakdown. It's really the opportunity cost that makes me nervous about Pitts. It's tough projecting TE's from the college game to the pro's, and he's going to cost a first. How do you compare him to Freiermuth? I don't love Freiermuth as a top 10 prospect but I think he has value between 15 and 20, and especially later than that. Freiermuth has a much better frame for blocking and I think could be more successful as a traditional in line TE. That might be more important for us. If we are running a Coryell offense with a lot of motion, passes to the RB and TE, and play action, we'd probably like to be able to disguise what we are going to be doing. 

 

 

I haven't watched Freiermuth yet.  But I'll tell you when I do.    It's interesting for me to watch a lot of guys from the same position because it gives me some confidence that I can do it apples to apples.  Judging by where ultimately guys were taken, I didn't do too bad in the last draft.  For example, I was high on Keene.  Few talked about him. Below the radar kind of guy.  And he ended up going much higher than expected.  Loved Asiasi.  He also went higher than expected.  Both taken by the Pats.  I wasn't that high on Moss, saw him as a late first rounder (some had him going in the third round) and he ultimately went undrafted -- though I didn't hate him as a prospect but I just saw him as limited.   

 

As for Pitts he jumped at me immediately when I watched him especially after watching 20 plus TEs in the last draft.   The dude can get open and is unusually fluid for a TE. 

 

9 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

James was well liked on the intangibles front for sure.  But the cream of the crop in that draft was definitely Minkah Fitzpatrick.  He was nicknamed "Saban's Son".  Minkahs intangibles and football smarts were considered unbelievable.

 

Loved both guys equally more or less.  That draft I was screaming for those two players and Derrius Guice.  Those were my big man crushes.   Minkah is super smart on the field.  Derwin though from what I recall reading about him at the time was a mega leader of men -- London Fletcher locker room guy.  I don't recall Fitzpatrick hyped the same way on that front but yeah he was Saban's brains on the field so to speak. 

 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

An insider here said it they loved James and Fitzpatrick the most, Edmonds next but who knows.  I've heard different reporters say they knew they loved James.

 

I actually liked Edmonds, too.  I'd take him over Payne as well.   Like I said, I'll see if Payne blossoms this year.  But thus far the dude is a good player -- solid but not a star, not great.  

 

I mean, in fairness, wouldn't every team's draft war room, love James/Fitzpatrick/etc?  They're easy players to like.  Might not have them as next on the Big Board though.

 

Has anyone heard what Kyle Smith thought of for that draft?

[Anselmheifer]

https://www.nfl.com/news/scouting-rashod-bateman-wr-similar-to-michael-thomas

 

Daniel Jeremiah's scouting report on Rashod Bateman. In short, he loves him and compares him to Michael Thomas at Ohio State. I don't love the idea of taking a receiver in the first unless the value is great. 

[Skinsinparadise]

12 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

I mean, in fairness, wouldn't every team's draft war room, love James/Fitzpatrick/etc?  They're easy players to like.  Might not have them as next on the Big Board though.

 

Has anyone heard what Kyle Smith thought of for that draft?

 

I forgot how I got the impression that Kyle wasn't for Payne as for the pick.  It's not that I think anyone disliked Payne but some just preferred another player.   I recall the main mod insider coming on the draft thread saying he heard James and Fitzpatrick, and wanting one to fall. And Edmonds, too.  If I recall someone said it was Jay who loved Edmonds.  But I could be mis-recalling it.  Jay was perhaps determined to get a stud MLB because if I recall he led the chorus also for Reuben Foster the year before.

 

Doug in an interview post draft flat out said there was dissension in the room about picking Payne.   He made it clear that he wanted Payne. Somehow I got the impression that so did Bruce by how he described things but who knows?

 

If I recall it was a reporter or two who said they heard they really dug Fitzpatrick and James.   It's been awhile so I'd have to refresh my memory.  But i had us so linked to Fitzpatrick, James in my mind and to some degree Edmonds before the draft to us that I was stunned that we didn't take either one.  There was some buzz that both players -- especially James would go before our pick.  So Payne seemed like the fall back option and the heavy favorite fall back option.  And on that count it was a likely pick because he was the dude expected to fall unlike the other two.   

 

Before the draft (especially as the draft got closer) really very few believed Payne would go before 13.  Saw him in the 20s in some mocks.  Edmunds and James were often picked before.  Granted heck mocks are mocks.  But I was really surprised.  I didn't mind Payne as the fallback pick but didn't get it as the top pick.  And between it flying against some of the buzz at the time and Doug admitting there wasn't consensus in the draft room about it -- it make it even more curious to me.  

 

Payne again is a good player.  But didn't strike me special.  You read about Jonathan Allen and the dude comes off like a technician who constantly works at his craft.  Payne seems like a workout fiend who likes to use his physicality but doesn't strike me as a technician type where you'd ever see the dude talk in front of NFL films about the nuances of his craft.   Hard for me to imagine that Payne blew them away in an interview like Jonathan Allen would or for that matter Derwin James.  

 

Part of my infatuation with Chase Young is the dude isn't just a physical beast but also in interviews the dude comes off like a real student of the game with a maniac level of commitment to being great.  I just didn't then nor now get that vibe from Payne.   Derwin James on the other hand does come off like that and you couple that with London Fletcher like leadership skills and an insane work ethic and to me that adds to no comparison between the dudes aside from the idea of drafting for need. I recall posting the articles on the thread about James' intangibles.  It's also one of the reasons why I touted McLaurin's intangibles.  If you got a talented player with insane intangibles that typically leads to good things.    To me we went for a solid-good player with run of the mill intangibles versus a first team All Pro player with unique swiss army knife skills with rock star level intangibles.

 

It's not the end of the world.  Plenty of teams blow their first round pick and miss.  And, Payne isn't a miss.  Good player.  But he's another example of why this team continues to lack All Pro players, superstars.  We master "good" including in the first round.  We fail to find great.  We take Laron Landry not Adrian Peterson.  We take Carlos Rodgers not D. Ware.  We trade down with Dallas so they can take D. Lawrence and we get Trent Murphy.  Trade down so Seattle can take Lockett and we get ourselves Crowder.   Trade down to take Kerrigan and pass over Watt.  On and on.

 

Not saying James is in the category of all those players I mentioned.  But the irony that we've not had a  first team all pro under Dan aside from a punter. The only team for that matter that hasn't had one.  And James pulls it off in season 1 while Payne isn't even close to being in conversation as one of the top defensive tackles in the league let alone All Pro -- seems to fit the theme.  

 

But like I said most of last college season, Chase Young is special. That's obvious.  I think he is the dude that breaks this streak.  Maybe McLaurin and Guice, too (both guys I liked-loved before the draft.  So we might be out of the woods on this.  Also, I'll give Payne one more year to see if he breaks out.  Young might help him do it.  Will see. 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

8 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Hard for me to imagine that Payne blew them away in an interview like Jonathan Allen would or for that matter Derwin James.  

 

Part of my infatuation with Chase Young is the dude isn't just a physical beast but also in interviews the dude comes off like a real student of the game with a maniac level of commitment to being great.  I just didn't then nor now get that vibe from Payne.   Derwin James on the other hand does come off like that and you couple that with London Fletcher like leadership skills and an insane work ethic and to me that adds to no comparison between the dudes aside from the idea of drafting for need. I recall posting the articles on the thread about James' intangibles.  It's also one of the reasons why I touted McLaurin's intangibles.  If you got a talented player with insane intangibles that typically leads to good things.    To me we went for a solid-good player with run of the mill intangibles versus a first team All Pro player with unique swiss army knife skills with rock star level intangibles.

 

Desire is so hard to quantify but matters so much.

 

8 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

We trade down with Dallas so they can take D. Lawrence and we get Trent Murphy.  Trade down so Seattle can take Lockett and we get ourselves Crowder.   Trade down to take Kerrigan and pass over Watt.  On and on.

I don't think some of this is fair.  Lockett has only now, in his 5th season, broken 1,000 yards.  He's also never made a pro-bowl as a WR (only as a returner).  Lockett is better, but not so much so that you forego the opportunity the other draft picks gained in the trade give you.  They didn't pan out.  But that swap of 3rd rounders netted us an extra 4th, and three 6's.

Lockett - 276 rec, 3838 yards, 27 td's

Crowder - 299 rec, 3461 yards, 20 td's

 

The D. Lawrence trade was close to panning out.  We got two starting caliber players out of it.  Which was desperately needed with how crappy our roster was.  That said, Lawrence's best is better than both of them combined.  What's awkward about this is that all 3 of them have had a bunch of injuries that have sapped them.  All 3 of them had down years last year.   And maybe they never recover their form.

 

But the Kerrigan and Watt thing is a great example.  Kerrigan has been a good player for us for 9 seasons.  But he's never been a great player.  Watt's prime was untouchable.  His prime was in the realm of best defender like Reggie White.  Stat unfortunately only goes back to 2006 for this, but since then, only 4 seasons have happened with a player that's had 40+ QB Hits and 7+ Passes Defended.  All 4 of those seasons were done by JJ Watt.

 

8 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

But the irony that we've not had a  first team all pro under Dan aside from a punter. 

 

But like I said most of last college season, Chase Young is special. That's obvious.  I think he is the dude that breaks this streak.  Maybe McLaurin and Guice, too (both guys I liked-loved before the draft.  So we might be out of the woods on this.  Also, I'll give Payne one more year to see if he breaks out.  Young might help him do it.  Will see. 

 

Those 3 have so much potential, it's so tantalizing.  I don't want to fool myself into thinking they all achieve that level of production.  But in a fun dream, if they all did that in 1 season, that would be an amazing season to watch.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

I don't think some of this is fair.  Lockett has only now, in his 5th season, broken 1,000 yards.  He's also never made a pro-bowl as a WR (only as a returner).  Lockett is better, but not so much so that you forego the opportunity the other draft picks gained in the trade give you.  They didn't pan out.  But that swap of 3rd rounders netted us an extra 4th, and three 6's.

Lockett - 276 rec, 3838 yards, 27 td's

Crowder - 299 rec, 3461 yards, 20 td's

 

The D. Lawrence trade was close to panning out.  We got two starting caliber players out of it.  Which was desperately needed with how crappy our roster was.  That said, Lawrence's best is better than both of them combined.  What's awkward about this is that all 3 of them have had a bunch of injuries that have sapped them.  All 3 of them had down years last year.   And maybe they never recover their form.

 

 

I gave a bunch of examples and I could give more easily.  Lockett > Crowder. Lockett was a first team All Pro as a returner. He's not just a better receiver than Crowder but he's also an electric returner.  Again how many first team pros did the Redskins draft under Dan?  Nada.   But I agree that's the weakest of the examples I gave. 

 

My point wasn't to dwell on a specific example.  But describe a pattern which is this team struggles to find great players.  Trent Murphy, Spencer Long < Demarcus Lawrence.  But agree that's the 2nd weakest of the examples I gave.   

 

But to debate me on this it would be about taking down my macro point because that's my point not each example.  The Redskins in the last 20 years have really struggled to find great players and have skipped over a bunch that they could have drafted.  If you disagree with me on that -- then we got a real disagreement going.  But I gather you don't disagree on that front.😀

 

1 hour ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

Those 3 have so much potential, it's so tantalizing.  I don't want to fool myself into thinking they all achieve that level of production.  But in a fun dream, if they all did that in 1 season, that would be an amazing season to watch.

 

It could happen.   I got the most faith among that group and by a mile in Chase. 

 

 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[Anselmheifer]

7 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

It's not the end of the world.  Plenty of teams blow their first round pick and miss.  And, Payne isn't a miss.  Good player.  But he's another example of why this team continues to lack All Pro players, superstars.  We master "good" including in the first round.  We fail to find great.  We take Laron Landry not Adrian Peterson.  We take Carlos Rodgers not D. Ware.  We trade down with Dallas so they can take D. Lawrence and we get Trent Murphy.  Trade down so Seattle can take Lockett and we get ourselves Crowder.   Trade down to take Kerrigan and pass over Watt.  On and on.

 

But like I said most of last college season, Chase Young is special. That's obvious.  I think he is the dude that breaks this streak.  Maybe McLaurin and Guice, too (both guys I liked-loved before the draft.  So we might be out of the woods on this.  Also, I'll give Payne one more year to see if he breaks out.  Young might help him do it.  Will see. 

 

That's it in a nutshell, isn't it. Passing on superior talent for need or trading out of a better draft slot for, "value".

 

But, I don't think it has to stay that way. We got rid of Allen. We got rid of Gruden. Kyle is an excellent talent evaluator and Ron seems to have enough gravitas to make his own decisions without being bullied by Snyder. Maybe the combination of Rivera and Kyle will work. Hopefully Chase is the start of something good.

 

It really feels like we could be on the verge of something better. I think a lot of it hinges on Haskins. If Chase is Myles Garrett/Nick Bosa good, and he should be, then our DL suddenly is a massive strength. That talent, combined with JDR makes me think that our defense will quickly be good, if not great. We have a WR1. We have what looks like an impact slot.

 

Haskins is a popular player with his peers. Jalen Ramsey tweets support for him. He works out with big time receivers. If Haskins is suddenly successful and our team is 8-8 with budding stars like McLaurin and Chase Young and Maybe a Guice or Montez Sweat, look for us to become more attractive to elite FA's and to turn the corner more quickly than expected. 

 

The following draft summaries by Daniel Jeremiah are worth a read. Kyle Pitts. JaMar Chase. Devonta Smith. He compares Kyle Pitts in particular to Darren Waller. Also, Darren Waller's progression as a TE as been mind boggling. Drafted in 2015, he has had seasons of 2, 10, 6, and then NINETY receptions. That has to be poor coaching right. He wasn't suddenly that much better. They just didn't know what they had. 

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/scouting-kyle-pitts-florida-te-similar-to-raiders-darren-waller

https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/2576925/darren-waller

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/scouting-lsu-s-ja-marr-chase-wr-like-anquan-boldin-steve-smith

https://www.nfl.com/news/scouting-devonta-smith-alabama-wr-reminiscent-of-marvin-harrison

[HTTRDynasty]

Interesting breakdown on Lawrence here.  There's a very real possibility he could be our 1st round pick next year, and I think people should lower their expectations if they're expecting some once-in-a-generation type prospect.