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2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread


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I wouldn't be surprised at all if Sewell opted out and for more unexpected news Trey Lance might be transferring to another school. Man, I know he's seen as a 1st Rounder already, but it'll be interesting to see how he performs on a new team with a new system in the middle of all this Covid stuff while still maintaining his draft stock if he does indeed transfer.

 

 

I thought this was pretty cool from a scouting perspective. It talks about being aware of your biases and cleaning your filters after your emotions are spiked by either a negative or positive play and prematurely attaching to a conclusion about a guy. Personally, I won't write a report or grade a guy until after I've watched enough of a draft class, because I realize that my takes become more accurate, the larger my sample size is of players.

 

 

I also liked this one, because it talks about the importance of studying NFL tape in addition to college tape, so we know what the levels of success look like from Blue-Chip talent to a marginal starter.

 

 

This one is good too, because it brings the focus back to what a guy can do well in the NFL, versus what he can't do. What matters about College Tape is translatable traits and I would go farther to say what matters are specific clusters of traits, depending on a given lane you are estimating a guy can take to succeed in the NFL.

 

 

Edited by Fresh8686
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Re: the TDN OT ranking article,

 

I wish Faalele had been able to play in that game against Auburn so we could have seen him compared to NFL dudes.  Faalele is enormous but he doesn't seem like he's 400 pounds.  Carries it very naturally rather than being a tub of goo.  I think he actually redirects pretty well, but I notice that (unsurprisingly) he's not great at going backwards.  Doesn't look like he gets good depth on his sets.  And I notice that he doesn't look particularly good with his hands either.  They don't block in rugby and it's not something you can get good at in three years.  Whoever drafts him will be taking on a major project but he's still interesting because he's such a unique athlete.  There is a novelty factor with him that will make his career fascinating to watch, but it might make sense for him to go back for his senior season.

 

I  think Leatherwood is going to be the most polarizing OL prospect this year.  He's got some splashy ass man-among-boys reps that make you see why he was such a big time recruit.  Just war-like block finishing that gets you excited as a football fan.  He's so twitchy and powerful and so much about him looks the part that I can see why some love him.  But I can also see why some people think he sucks.  Kind of surprised to how out of control he is on some of his reps given Alabama's program culture.  He looks like a bull getting schooled by a matador in them.  Some people are going to see a Tyron Smith-like well built and explosive athlete.  But I'm getting much more of a Cam Robinson-like vibe from him.  He is just not a technician.  It's not really even hard to get off of him he's so bad with his hands and so off balance.  I would be shocked if he became one at the next level.  I think he's going to get moved to guard even though he's theoretically got the speed to play tackle.  I don't think he's good and I suspect he's going to be way overdrafted if he tests well.  My gut reaction is that Trey Smith is better than him.

 

Their Cosmi take looks good but I don't think that Brian O'Neill comparison is going to hold up.  Cosmi is my guy, but I would be shocked if he ran anything even close to a 4.82.  5.12 would be a pleasant surprise with him.  I don't think you can write that huge difference in athleticism off in making a comparison between them.

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This underlcassmen group of WRs is awesome.  They are super accomplished already and a bunch of them are still going to go in the first round even though their junior season is getting wiped out by Covid 19.  The senior group is really good too.  I think there could be like 10 top 40 guys if there is an underclassman exodus.  The ideal break of the deck for us would be to get a stud defensive player or offensive lineman/TE in the first round and then a great WR prospect in the second.  Then maybe a really good DB in free agency.  Would be awesome to get someone like Kyle Pitts in the first and then someone like Amon-Ra St Brown in the second.

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38 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Sewell in the first, St. Brown in the second, hope the Chargers stay cheap and let Desmond King walk out of the door is the dream scenario for me.

 

I love Sewell but I have a hard time seeing us being in a position to get him. He's going to go top 3 and I think even if our offense isn't great, our defense may be good enough to help us win enough games to be out of the top 5.

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1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

I love Sewell but I have a hard time seeing us being in a position to get him. He's going to go top 3 and I think even if our offense isn't great, our defense may be good enough to help us win enough games to be out of the top 5.

 

I don't think we're going to get him either.  But this year is going to be crazy, who knows what will happen?  Half our roster could go down with Covid.  You could predict the Patriots will be picking first overall and the Raiders win the Superbowl and I wouldn't rule it out.

 

My feelings about Penei Sewell aside, I really hope we have a good season.  I would much rather have a good season than pick top five for any player.  The NFL draft is not the NBA draft, you can get great players no matter where you pick.

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15 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

This underlcassmen group of WRs is awesome.  They are super accomplished already and a bunch of them are still going to go in the first round even though their junior season is getting wiped out by Covid 19.  The senior group is really good too.  I think there could be like 10 top 40 guys if there is an underclassman exodus.  The ideal break of the deck for us would be to get a stud defensive player or offensive lineman/TE in the first round and then a great WR prospect in the second.  Then maybe a really good DB in free agency.  Would be awesome to get someone like Kyle Pitts in the first and then someone like Amon-Ra St Brown in the second.

 

Kyle Pitts (and SIP) have won me over. Initially I didn't see an extreme difference between Kyle Pitts and David Njoku. Very long, tall thin receivers with excellent speed and jumping ability. 

 

 

 

Look at the routes and the cuts. He's so quick and fluid out of his breaks and his length and hands are so good. I think he's going to need to gain 10 or even 15 pounds to be a legitimate inline option. But if he does that, I don't know how you cover him. Not with a LB, unless you have Isaiah Simmons or Micah Parsons, and even then, there is the length. McLaurin, Sims and Pitts would be a very group of receivers for Haskins, especially if you could get him one more guy outside. 

 

Can you tell me more about Amon-Ra St Brown?

 

And....it looks like we might have needs at RB should a good one be available. Honestly, I wouldn't hate a RB in the top of round 2. Imagine adding Najee Harris there. Najee Harris, Bryce Love and Antonio Gibson would be a very complementary and talented backfield. 

 

 

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5 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

Look at the routes and the cuts. He's so quick and fluid out of his breaks and his length and hands are so good. I think he's going to need to gain 10 or even 15 pounds to be a legitimate inline option. But if he does that, I don't know how you cover him. Not with a LB, unless you have Isaiah Simmons or Micah Parsons, and even then, there is the length. McLaurin, Sims and Pitts would be a very group of receivers for Haskins, especially if you could get him one more guy outside. 

 

Can you tell me more about Amon-Ra St Brown?

 

Pitts splits out wide enough times and with enough proficiency to be a WR.  His releases are really good too.  He's physical at the top of his stems and at the catch point.  He's a terrific prospect and looks like maybe a mid first rounder to me, which is where we are kind of hoping to be drafting.

 

St Brown is a jitterbug type receiver.  He and JT Daniels went to High School together and they were super blue chip recruits who were top ten in their class I think.  He was kind of the third guy in USC's crazy passing offense last season as Vaughns and Pittman had more seniority and experience, but St Brown is the most talented one of that bunch and he really benefited from the single coverages he saw, especially in deep zones where a safety would have been all over him if teams weren't having to pick their poison moving their safeties around to help on him, Pittman, and Vaughns by turns.

 

Skillset-wise, he's a versatile inside-outside receiver who can run the entire route tree and play in any alignment.  He's not a burner as he is much more of a short-strider and I don't expect him to run a great 40, but he is super explosive and he builds easy separation in a handful of ways, especially on deep stems and vertical breaks.  He's an instinctive route runner and it's a decisive strength of his.  Deep ball tracking and timing is very good and he is a good leaper who is tough in contested catch situations.  Hands look pretty good--he's a plucker--but I haven't seen his drop stats so I don't know if there is a problem there.  Potential for a strong release game is definitely there because he is so explosive.  Decent size and acceptable toughness and physicality but he's not a bully and it's an area for growth from him.  YAC ability is fabulous and probably his most spectacular tool because of how good his changes of direction are.  Some of his most exciting plays were backfield handoffs and reverses, and I think he could be a major weapon in the return game early in his career.

 

His production so far has been fantastic.  2,000 All Purpose Yards as a true Freshman and Sophomore and I believe he led his team in catches as a Freshman.  I think he's really really good and kind of struggle to see a big difference between him and the first round locks at the top of the class like Waddle and Moore and Bateman.  I would love to draft him.

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4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Pitts splits out wide enough times and with enough proficiency to be a WR.  His releases are really good too.  He's physical at the top of his stems and at the catch point.  He's a terrific prospect and looks like maybe a mid first rounder to me, which is where we are kind of hoping to be drafting.

 

 

How do you compare Pitts to Freiermuth if you are drafting for the Washington Football team? I initially leaned Freiermuth just because of positional versatility. He's more of an in line guy. You can line him up at H back. He's more physical. Freiermuth could be a rich man's Chris Cooley, as a best case scenario. But Pitts is soooo long, in addition to being so vertically explosive and fluid in his routes. Also, I think Pitts is almost 2 years younger. I think I now lean Pitts. 


Looking at guys that might be available later, PFF had Charlie Kolar as their 4th ranked TE. Watching the video below, Kolar is super long and has great balls skills. Not super fast, but not plodding. Looks like the kind of guys that is going to have a good feel for sitting down in zone coverage, and will catch a lot of contested balls with his length, but isn't going to be a great at getting separation in one on one match ups. I listened to a PFF podcast in which they said that Kolar has the best ball skills of any TE coming out next year. This is what they had to say about him. 

 

"4. Charlie Kolar, Iowa State

Kolar had a whale of a breakout year in 2019 that saw him catch 51 passes for 697 yards and seven scores. His 90.3 receiving grade was the third-highest in the country last season. For his career, Kolar has dropped only two passes on 64 catchable targets."

 

 

 

 

 

4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

St Brown is a jitterbug type receiver.  He and JT Daniels went to High School together and they were super blue chip recruits who were top ten in their class I think.  He was kind of the third guy in USC's crazy passing offense last season as Vaughns and Pittman had more seniority and experience, but St Brown is the most talented one of that bunch and he really benefited from the single coverages he saw, especially in deep zones where a safety would have been all over him if teams weren't having to pick their poison moving their safeties around to help on him, Pittman, and Vaughns by turns.

 

Skillset-wise, he's a versatile inside-outside receiver who can run the entire route tree and play in any alignment.  He's not a burner as he is much more of a short-strider and I don't expect him to run a great 40, but he is super explosive and he builds easy separation in a handful of ways, especially on deep stems and vertical breaks.  He's an instinctive route runner and it's a decisive strength of his.  Deep ball tracking and timing is very good and he is a good leaper who is tough in contested catch situations.  Hands look pretty good--he's a plucker--but I haven't seen his drop stats so I don't know if there is a problem there.  Potential for a strong release game is definitely there because he is so explosive.  Decent size and acceptable toughness and physicality but he's not a bully and it's an area for growth from him.  YAC ability is fabulous and probably his most spectacular tool because of how good his changes of direction are.  Some of his most exciting plays were backfield handoffs and reverses, and I think he could be a major weapon in the return game early in his career.

 

His production so far has been fantastic.  2,000 All Purpose Yards as a true Freshman and Sophomore and I believe he led his team in catches as a Freshman.  I think he's really really good and kind of struggle to see a big difference between him and the first round locks at the top of the class like Waddle and Moore and Bateman.  I would love to draft him.

 

St. Brown sounds like a really good complement to McLaurin and Sims. Having guys that you can line up all over can really make an offense hard to defend. If St. Brown can run the entire route tree, play in any alignment and track the ball deep, then maybe you are right about him and Waddle]. I don't trust Waddle. There isn't enough body of work and being fast isn't enough of a reason to get drafted that highly. If he has a good season this year I'll feel differently. Rondale Moore is different. Maybe he's not a guy that is a super refined route runner that you can line up at any position. But, he is just so explosive. I really think he could be a Tyreek Hill like player. And he's been super productive whenever he's been healthy, from the moment he stepped on the field as a freshman. I think that he's a top 10-12 talent in terms of his NFL future. 

 

 

On 8/7/2020 at 10:09 PM, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I don't think we're going to get him either.  But this year is going to be crazy, who knows what will happen?  Half our roster could go down with Covid.  You could predict the Patriots will be picking first overall and the Raiders win the Superbowl and I wouldn't rule it out.

 

My feelings about Penei Sewell aside, I really hope we have a good season.  I would much rather have a good season than pick top five for any player.  The NFL draft is not the NBA draft, you can get great players no matter where you pick.

 

I agree. We'd be much better off as a team having a good season than another bad one. And unless you're drafting a QB that high, one guy generally isn't going to change the future of a franchise. How much did Joe Thomas move the needle for Cleveland? Heck. How much has Myles Garrett moved the needle for Cleveland. 


Ideally, Sims would break out, Saahdiq Charles would look like a future pro bowl LT, Antonio Gibson and AGG would look great and we win some games. However, the importance of the success of all of those pieces pales in comparison to the importance of how Haskins progresses. Both in terms of our draft slot, and the next 3 years of our franchise. Haskins now has a true WR1, and I think a WR2, in Sims. He's going to have RB's that can catch the ball. Of course we could use a TE. an outside WR2, and an upgraded OL. But, there are enough pieces there to get a decent evaluation of Haskins. If Haskins has a good year, we are going to win some games and the needle of our franchise is solidly up. Haskins has a good year, and we can buy the farm in free agency next year and have something to build around in the draft.

 

With regards to Sewell, I still think that the utter best case scenario for this team's long term future is that we are better than we think we are, and there is no season, and we wind up with the 2nd or 3rd pick in every round. One more big draft could really set us up. 

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Damn Kyle Pitts is nice, his body control is phenomenal for someone who is 6-6. First real season of playing and he racks up 650 yards/5 TDs as a sophmore too, he's definitely a guy we should be looking at. Hopefully his blocking is passable but we need receiving threats for Dwayne most importantly. 

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Am I crazy for looking at Gregory Rousseau and seeing Justin Tuck? Close to the same height and weight. Tuck looked a little thicker. Both were position flexible guys that had a lot of their sacks and pressures from the inside. 

 

 

 

Also, has anyone here broken down Chazz Surratt? He's PFF's 4th ranked LB this year. 6'3" and 230 pounds and runs a 4.5. He had 115 tackles and 6.5 sacks last year. Looks good in coverage. Productive against big time opponents, including Clemson.  Less than 2 full years of experience at LB. Previously played QB. Could wind up being a steal if he drops. 

 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4037521/chazz-surratt

 

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

Am I crazy for looking at Gregory Rousseau and seeing Justin Tuck? Close to the same height and weight. Tuck looked a little thicker. Both were position flexible guys that had a lot of their sacks and pressures from the inside. 

 

 

 

Actually as far as his physical abilities, size, and pass rushing style Rousseau reminds me a lot of Sweat. Long, rangy, freaky athlete who doesn't really have a lot of refined pass rush moves but wins with raw ability and will probably need coaching up in the NFL. 

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3 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Actually as far as his physical abilities, size, and pass rushing style Rousseau reminds me a lot of Sweat. Long, rangy, freaky athlete who doesn't really have a lot of refined pass rush moves but wins with raw ability and will probably need coaching up in the NFL. 


But he doesn't play like Sweat. Sweat is an edge player. Speed and power to the outside. Watch Rousseau. A HUGE part of his production came from inside. 

 

 

Justin Fields is certainly more mobile, but am I the only person here that thinks he isn't as good as Haskins? I'd rather have Sewell and Haskins than Fields, by a mile. 

 

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10 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:


But he doesn't play like Sweat. Sweat is an edge player. Speed and power to the outside. Watch Rousseau. A HUGE part of his production came from inside. 

 

 

I wasn't saying I completely disagreed with your take and I did see plenty of inside pressures from him in that clip (thanks for providing it), but I still saw a fair amount of Sweat in him as well. His inside production wasn't as much as a standard 3 gap penetrating guy, but more from twists and using his length to get around guys. He also had plenty of snaps there where he was rushing from the standard DE position. I was just talking about how I saw him move, his pass rushing repertoire, his athleticism, and his build and how he used it. Just from that view he reminded me of Sweat.

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Why does everyone say we're going to have a legit defense and then give us the #1 or #2 overall pick? When has a really good defense ever been the worst or 2nd worst team in the league? 

 

I look at Carolina's roster and there's no way in hell that roster is better. They have CMC and an extremely young and inexperienced defense. 

 

The Jaguars, Jets, Dolphins, Panthers, and Bengals are all worse than us and will be picking ahead of us. 

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56 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Love Devonta Smith.  But top 10?.  He needs to put on 15 pounds.  Heck at least here we don't have the #1 pick in the draft.  We got the #2 pick. 😀

 

 

 


Rondale Moore to the Packers at 26 and Kyle Pitts to Dallas at 27? Garbage mock. And if Pitts falls to 27, we better be trading up to grab him. Can you imagine adding Sewell and Pitts? Not happening, but drool worthy. 

 

Looking at our history with 2nd rounders, maybe we should start trading up ala Montez Sweat, every other year. I'd take three 1sts and no 2nds over 2 firsts and 2 seconds in a heartbeat, given our drafting history. 

35 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

Why does everyone say we're going to have a legit defense and then give us the #1 or #2 overall pick? When has a really good defense ever been the worst or 2nd worst team in the league? 

 

I look at Carolina's roster and there's no way in hell that roster is better. They have CMC and an extremely young and inexperienced defense. 

 

The Jaguars, Jets, Dolphins, Panthers, and Bengals are all worse than us and will be picking ahead of us. 

 

Agreed. But, maybe they are thinking that our DL is a year away from dominance and we don't have a secondary. It wouldn't surprise me if our DL is good this year and other worldly in 2021, when Chase is in  his 2nd year and Montez in his 3rd. 

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3 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

Why does everyone say we're going to have a legit defense and then give us the #1 or #2 overall pick? When has a really good defense ever been the worst or 2nd worst team in the league? 

 

I look at Carolina's roster and there's no way in hell that roster is better. They have CMC and an extremely young and inexperienced defense. 

 

The Jaguars, Jets, Dolphins, Panthers, and Bengals are all worse than us and will be picking ahead of us. 

 

Yeah, I remember when we had that monstrous defense in '04, but had possibly the worst offense I've ever seen. Different game back then, but we were still worth 5-6 wins, and were in countless other games.

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12 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

Justin Fields is certainly more mobile, but am I the only person here that thinks he isn't as good as Haskins? I'd rather have Sewell and Haskins than Fields, by a mile. 

 

You are not the only person.  Fields doesn't have the pocket skills that Haskins had as a RS Soph.  Doesn't read coverages nearly as well, doesn't see the whole field yet, Isn't as patient and doesn't have as good a sense of timing, and isn't the playmaker from the pocket that Dwayne is.  His weapon is his legs, and that's how he is going to try and make his plays.  He's an interesting young prospect, but he's not as special as Dwayne was IMO.  The projections of him being a top five pick are assuming that he's going to make a pretty big leap this season IMO.

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3 hours ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

Why does everyone say we're going to have a legit defense and then give us the #1 or #2 overall pick? When has a really good defense ever been the worst or 2nd worst team in the league? 

 

I look at Carolina's roster and there's no way in hell that roster is better. They have CMC and an extremely young and inexperienced defense. 

 

The Jaguars, Jets, Dolphins, Panthers, and Bengals are all worse than us and will be picking ahead of us. 

 

 

 

it's a lot easier to see us losing 17 - 14 than it is seeing us win 14 - 10.   Our defense likely keeps us in most games this year, but the major questions on offense have to raise the questions about how long the defense can hold up.   I have hopes that Dwayne takes the next step, but new HC, no offseason, no TC, no Pre-season doesn't bode well for him at least coming out of the gate.  Miami and Carolina have a leg up there with Fitzgerald and Bridgewater lining up under center.   In this oddity of a season, we are going to be starting way behind the 8 ball in a lot of aspects of the offense...   Looking at Haskins, LT, LG, WR2, RB, TE1-2-3,  there are a lot of things that can greatly effect our ability to score enough points to hang with teams.  We 

 

I tend to agree with you, that we end up better than picking no. 2 overall, but depending on the questions that get answered we could go 2-14, or 7-9... we could pick 2nd, or 10th... a lot of things are not known yet.  

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