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Election 2020 The Non Presidential Edition


Cooked Crack

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You know, the congressional races are even more important than the presidency.  

 

If a Dem wins but still has to deal with either a half or full GOP congress; they won't accomplish much.

They need to focus on retaining the house and getting the Senate.   If a Dem wins the presidency, I think

they will enough coattails to give the Dems a narrow margin in the Senate.  Say 50-50 or 51-49.  

Get rid of the filibuster and then reform the country.

 

These Dems with no chance at the presidency, once their campaigns fail later this year; they need to run for Senate.

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In her plea deal, Margaret Hunter acknowledged the couple misused more than $200,000 in campaign funds for personal use over six years.

She also agreed to help the government. Rep. Hunter’s trial is in September.

How long until Fox News hosts are asking Trump to pardon Hunter.

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5 hours ago, Rdskns2000 said:

You know, the congressional races are even more important than the presidency.  

 

If a Dem wins but still has to deal with either a half or full GOP congress; they won't accomplish much.

They need to focus on retaining the house and getting the Senate.   If a Dem wins the presidency, I think

they will enough coattails to give the Dems a narrow margin in the Senate.  Say 50-50 or 51-49.  

Get rid of the filibuster and then reform the country.

 

These Dems with no chance at the presidency, once their campaigns fail later this year; they need to run for Senate.

 

You are correct that winning the Presidency is not enough to get anything done legislatively.  I think the current mainstream thinking is the Dems should be able to keep the House, but winning the Senate, or even getting to 50-50, is a huge lift.

 

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/6/5/18306339/senate-democrats-2020-election-map

 

Democrats’ extremely uphill battle to retake the Senate majority in 2020, explained

 

Quote

The No. 1 item on the agenda for Democrats in 2020 is defeating Donald Trump. But the Democratic agenda hinges on retaking the Senate. And that could be an uphill battle.

 

Senate Republicans hold a three-seat majority and will have to defend 22 seats in 2020. Democrats, meanwhile, are up in just 12 states. But the map still doesn’t look good for them.

 

“What makes this map very deceiving was in 2018, Democrats had to defend five seats in states Trump won by 19 points or more,” said Jennifer Duffy, a Senate expert at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “In this case, there’s no Republican sitting in a state that Clinton won by more than 5.”

 

They are probably going to lose the Doug Jones seat in Alabama, so they need to pick up 4 seats.  The clear targets are Martha McSally in AZ (McSally LOST her election last year to (D) Krysten Sinema, but then took John McCain's seat).  Although he needs to win the nomination, Mark Kelly, former astronaut and husband of Gabby Giffords, is running against her.  

 

Cory Gardner's seat in Colorado is also very gettable. 

 

After that, it starts to get grim.  Susan Collins is very unpopular nationally since she always makes noises about doing the right thing, then always tows the party line.  Not sure how popular she is in Maine, she's been in the senate there since 1996.  It's unclear who is favored to win the Dem nomination.  

 

Things that would really help, in no particular order.

  • Obviously, Trump continuing to act like a lunatic and continuing to harm swing state voters with his economic policies.
  • Beto bowing out of his presidential bid and running against John Cornyn.
  • Stacey Abrams running in Georgia.
  • The GOP nominating a real nutbag for open seats in Kansas, Tennessee and Wyoming.  Like way worse than child-molesting Roy Moore.  It could happen.  
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19 hours ago, SkinsHokieFan said:

Don’t forget about NC. Tillis is going to have a tough race here in 2020

 

Potential D pickups

 

AZ CO NC GA Maine if former Obama aide Susan Rice runs vs Collins 

 

All but CO would be upsets 

 

Good call.  Why is Tillis in trouble?  I thought NC was pretty red.

 

And AZ would not be an upset.  The incumbent lost her Senate race last year, was then appointed to the job.  

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58 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

Good call.  Why is Tillis in trouble?  I thought NC was pretty red.

 

And AZ would not be an upset.  The incumbent lost her Senate race last year, was then appointed to the job.  

 

Parts are solidly red, but it’s trending blue over the last few cycles. Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte are all growth areas.

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On 6/14/2019 at 12:57 PM, PleaseBlitz said:

 

Good call.  Why is Tillis in trouble?  I thought NC was pretty red.

 

And AZ would not be an upset.  The incumbent lost her Senate race last year, was then appointed to the job.  

McSally wasn't the incumbent. I think she'll lose again as a couple of talk radio nuts hate her for some reason (Ward fans) and likely will depress the Republican vote again.

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3 hours ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

She’s the incumbent now. 

Yeah got it. I read that as saying she was the incumbent when she lost but that is not what you said. I think she is an effective Senator but the wing nuts hate her for some unknown reason (she being sane maybe) so can't see her beating Kelly (Note my friend is close to the Kelly campaign so I think I may get a heads up on aspects of this race as it develops). I hope McSally wins though.  

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