stevemcqueen1

2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

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25 minutes ago, PlayAction said:

 A series of hamstring injuries forced him to miss significant time as a redshirt freshman in 2015 and again in 2016. Injuries limited him during each of his first three seasons, and that could certainly affect his draft stock."  

So I guess this means we are trading up to get him...

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3 minutes ago, Riggo-toni said:

So I guess this means we are trading up to get him...

Tons of elite speed receivers have hamstring injuries, and this doesn't correlate with other injuries. That fibula fracture in 2017 though...makes me think of Thompson. I still love his route running, YAC, and toughness. I think he could be a very good player and is likely to be chosen late enough in the draft to be a real value. 

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Gotta say, I like McSorley.  I think he’s a better comp to Russel Wilson than Minishew is.  They ran him too much, IMO, but he seems to to a good job of keeping his eyes downfield on scrambles.  I’m not sure about his arm strength, particularly throwing to the sideline, but he looks like he’s got pretty solid touch.  Didn’t love his downfield throws, but I wouldn’t call it a weakness for him.  I like the Ashburn connection.  I think he’d be a solid get that could compete with (and learn from) McCoy and we wouldn’t have to use a high pick - at least I’m guessing he’ll be there in the 3rd.  

 

Leaving our 1st and 2nd round picks open would be ideal for us, IMO.  As has been mentioned, there are likely to be some really solid picks at positions of need for us in those spots.  Could go TE, db, G or edge rusher in the 1st, and any of those plus wr/rb in the 2nd (though I doubt they go for a back that high).  

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52 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

Tons of elite speed receivers have hamstring injuries, and this doesn't correlate with other injuries. That fibula fracture in 2017 though...makes me think of Thompson. I still love his route running, YAC, and toughness. I think he could be a very good player and is likely to be chosen late enough in the draft to be a real value. 

 

Agreed.  He's good enough that, on talent alone, he could probably go back end of the first round.  But he's going to go a lot lower because he spends half his time injured.  I think he gets lost in the mix of a second round WR run and ends up dropping to the third.  Maybe even later if the WR run doesn't start until late in the second.

 

He's like a more powerful Percy Harvin except that his long speed isn't close to Harvin's, who was elite in this regard.  Very explosive short strider with elite change of direction skills and lateral quickness.  Runs with true ferocity.  But his deep speed is not great.  That's what really separates him from someone like Marquise Brown.

 

He's one of my favorite players in the class.  Some guys play the game with passion and creativity and vision and motor that is next level.  Deebo is one.  David Montgomery is another.  Allen and Oliver are the best examples of it in the class.  It's fun when you see that spark in a player.  They're more than the sum of their parts.

Edited by stevemcqueen1

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18 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

Pat Mahomes may help quell concerns. 

 

Mahomes hand size hits the minimum thresholds that teams supposedly use.  So not quite helping quell concerns.

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5 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Mahomes hand size hits the minimum thresholds that teams supposedly use.  So not quite helping quell concerns. 

 

Hand size is just one measurement.  You can't fall into the trap of letting a single measurement/trait/metric disqualify prospects for you because it's missing the forest through the trees.  The good players come up with methods to get around physical limitations and still make plays.  And a lot of them have other attributes that are atypical and help them excel.  Ed Oliver comes to mind.  Seems short and small but that guy is freakishly powerful.  Probably has more powerful musculature packed into his 280 pounds than guys who are 50 and 60 pounds heavier.

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2 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:


Love his highlights. He played against teams like JMU, Richmond, Elon, North Dakota State. You have to be careful. I'd love a mid to late round flier on the guy. According to ESPN, 6'0", 200 pounds. Has obviously great ball skills and his speed stands out. Also, extremely willing and talented hitter, who will give up his body.  I'd be interested to see how he times at the combine. Worst case scenario is that he's a back up nickel or dime defender and standout special teams player. He's Mel Kiper's 6th rated safety. Anybody else have thoughts on him, or on what round he should go?

 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2018/insider/story/_/id/25779372/2018-nfl-draft-re-draft-making-new-picks-first-two-rounds-1-64

 

 

Daniel Jeremiah and Dane Brugler has Adderly as the #1 safety in the draft class.

 

Brugler's Top 50 Big Board currently has Adderly at #21 and Thompson at #29.

 

Jeremiah has Addlerly at #27 and Thompson at #42.

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13 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Giants according to them like Haskins, Jones, and Murray in that order.  Denver likes Lock. Redskins like Jones.  And I know from living in South Florida, lot of talk of the Dolphins going Qb. We got Jax wanting one too.

 

I am guessing Foles will take one of those teams out of the mix.

 

Switching topics, lot of buzz on M. Sweat today so wonder if he leap frogs Polite and Burns after this week.

I’m thinking maybe the ideal (in my world) is Jax jumps the Giants for Haskins, Giants take Jones, Denver goes with Lock and Dolphins take Murray.  Grier falls to the 3rd (and is drafted by the ‘Skins) and then we double dip with McSorley late in the draft.  

 

You might be be right about Sweat.  His weight’s not all that bad either...  though at his height, I feel like it would be a big win for him if he could get closer to 260 by the combine.  I kind of think Polite might fall a bit due to circumstances and his body type.  On the flip side, a good combine could cement him in the top 20.  

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8 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Hand size is just one measurement.  You can't fall into the trap of letting a single measurement/trait/metric disqualify prospects for you because it's missing the forest through the trees.  The good players come up with methods to get around physical limitations and still make plays.  And a lot of them have other attributes that are atypical and help them excel.  Ed Oliver comes to mind.  Seems short and small but that guy is freakishly powerful.  Probably has more powerful musculature packed into his 280 pounds than guys who are 50 and 60 pounds heavier.

 

For sure.  It's also why Aaron Donald fell to #12, when tape suggested he should've been a Top 5 pick.

 

That said, I don't think this is a similar scenario.  There are a few traits Lock shows on tape that worry me.  That, added with his hand size, hurt his value.  I would not be comfortable drafting Lock at #46, that's even knowing rumors of some teams (Denver Broncos) supposedly salivating over him at #9.  Is that stupid?  Possibly, and watch us draft Lock now.

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2 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

For sure.  It's also why Aaron Donald fell to #12, when tape suggested he should've been a Top 5 pick.

 

That said, I don't think this is a similar scenario.  There are a few traits Lock shows on tape that worry me.  That, added with his hand size, hurt his value.  I would not be comfortable drafting Lock at #46, that's even knowing rumors of some teams (Denver Broncos) supposedly salivating over him at #9.  Is that stupid?  Possibly, and watch us draft Lock now. 

 

I agree with you that it dings him a little bit, but he's not really physically limited in other ways.  He's tall, sturdy, and has a cannon for an arm.

 

I'm worried about some of the things I saw in the cut ups too.  Specifically, it's worrisome that his football IQ drops about 50 points under pressure and he starts seeing the field through a straw.  But even that's not disqualifying.  That weakness can go either way.  Blaine Gabbert vs Jared Goff.  A lot of it will come down to him getting the right coach and system in which to thrive.  He's a technician when he gets to set up in clean pockets and throw the ball around the field.

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@stevemcqueen1I also have issues with Lock’s throws rolling out (or on the move at all really).  Small sample size (for me), but he seems to hit the ground or throw wide consistently.  I think you touched on this in your breakdown of him.  Speaking of which, I need to go back and look at that again as I’ve watched him a bit more closely.  With a clean pocket though (as you say), he’s pretty darn surgical.  

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1 hour ago, skinny21 said:

I’m thinking maybe the ideal (in my world) is Jax jumps the Giants for Haskins, Giants take Jones, Denver goes with Lock and Dolphins take Murray.  Grier falls to the 3rd (and is drafted by the ‘Skins) and then we double dip with McSorley late in the draft.  

 

You might be be right about Sweat.  His weight’s not all that bad either...  though at his height, I feel like it would be a big win for him if he could get closer to 260 by the combine.  I kind of think Polite might fall a bit due to circumstances and his body type.  On the flip side, a good combine could cement him in the top 20.  

 

I mentioned Sweat months back but had Polite and Burns in my mind leapfrog him.   But that might be shifting.  Seems like at 15, we'd be at position to get one of those guys.  I do think 4 QBs are going before our pick --- Haskins, Murray, Lock, Jones.  They aren't all going  that way in mocks right now (but indeed in some) but I think it ends up that way.   Heck in mocks at this stage from what I recall some had Cam Newton as a late first rounder.  QBs tend to creep up.   But we also got 4 teams who need QBs picking ahead of us -- let alone wildcard dynamics at QB including: Arizona might love Murray and not love Rosen, Jon Gruden may fall for a QB in this draft and may not love Carr, Bengals may release Dalton and start over.

 

My point is I think a surprise defender might fall to us.  If this goes like the typical draft, you are likely going to have at least two O lineman go before our pick, 1-2 CBs, too.   That's 8 players.

 

Then you got:  Ferrell, Oliver, Bosa, Q. Williams, J. Allen, R. Gary.  Heck some love J. Simmons.  Some say D. White goes top 10.  Something has to give somewhere.   Judging by mocks the biggest top 10 wildcards are:  R. Gary, Simmons, D. White, G. Williams.  In some they are as high as top 5 in others they can be in the late first.  

 

 

 

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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I don't make too much of Grier's inaccuracy at the senior bowl. They are throwing to new WR's with no practice or sense of timing. His ball speed was very good, which was reassuring given that the main concern was his arm strength. Grier had a great completion percentage, was the best deep passer in college football for the past two seasons, and, per PFF, was the best passer in the nation last year against the blitz. I think that actually says a lot. QB is a crapshoot though. My confidence in my ability to make the best pick is low. It's potentially higher than my confidence in this FO making the right pick though. 

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2 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

Tons of elite speed receivers have hamstring injuries, and this doesn't correlate with other injuries. That fibula fracture in 2017 though...makes me think of Thompson. I still love his route running, YAC, and toughness. I think he could be a very good player and is likely to be chosen late enough in the draft to be a real value. 

 

What do you think is the appropriate draft position for an oft-injured but high talent WR?  Do you project him out as Jordan Reed?  I don't think the team can afford a first or second round pick on a player like that.  Of course, he's worth being drafted  - mid 3rd or compensatory 3rd?  After that it's not until the 5th unless the Skins have some sort of trade down along the way to pick up another draft pick.  Skins could pick up a fourth round pick by moving down only a couple spots (although those looking for a QB will probably jump up right before the Skins).

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1 hour ago, Anselmheifer said:

I don't make too much of Grier's inaccuracy at the senior bowl. They are throwing to new WR's with no practice or sense of timing. His ball speed was very good, which was reassuring given that the main concern was his arm strength. Grier had a great completion percentage, was the best deep passer in college football for the past two seasons, and, per PFF, was the best passer in the nation last year against the blitz. I think that actually says a lot. QB is a crapshoot though. My confidence in my ability to make the best pick is low. It's potentially higher than my confidence in this FO making the right pick though. 

Yeah, I’m right there with you.  I’ll add to the positives that I think he has a pretty quick release.  I also like the growth he showed from Florida to WV in terms of going from more of a tuck and run guy, to a pass first/use the run as a last resort guy.  

 

In in terms of the “qb is a crapshoot” angle, and your confidence bit - I’m right there with you.  However (and I think this is big) going for aGrier instead of the other top guys gives you the chance to use lesser assets to get him.  Whether you trade down [and gain a pick(s)], or use the 2nd rounder, you’re mitigating the risk of getting it wrong.  

 

The main negatives I’ve seen regarding Grier:

1. concerns about arm strength - he didn’t put those to rest exactly, because I think the concerns are more about throwing without a good base, but it’s reassuring that outside throws  shouldn’t be an issue.  I actually feel ok about him throwing from a ‘poor’ base because, 1) I’ve seen him do it, 2) I like his accuracy better than Lock and Jones when they don’t have a proper base (Lock can still sling it better, but his accuracy really suffered from what I saw) 3) he’s elusive enough that if his mechanics are worked on he shouldn’t have to do it much at all, and 4) while he doesn’t have a rocket, his arm isn’t weak either.  

2. Working from a spread offense.  This one actually brings up a question (or two) I’ve been meaning to ask... which of the top qbs this year (those getting 1st-3rd round grades) did not operate in this type of offense?  And (since I’m pretty sure most of them did run them), why aren’t we hearing the same concern regarding these guys?

3. Mechanics/footwork.  I have, quite literally, nothing here.  

 

 

@Skinsinparadise just for fun/curiosity, who are your favs at 15 right now?

Edited by skinny21

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Just watched a couple of Kyler Murray highlight vids after I saw a few mocks having us taking him. Threw up in my mouth a little. The dude is 5'8" and doesn't seem to throw with any kind of anticipation. No way in hell he makes it as a QB in the NFL. I feel like he's a Tavon Austin kind of gadget/utility player in the pros. If we draft this kid, it better be in the 4th or later.

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3 minutes ago, ExoDus84 said:

Just watched a couple of Kyler Murray highlight vids after I saw a few mocks having us taking him. Threw up in my mouth a little. The dude is 5'8" and doesn't seem to throw with any kind of anticipation. No way in hell he makes it as a QB in the NFL. I feel like he's a Tavon Austin kind of gadget/utility player in the pros. If we draft this kid, it better be in the 4th or later.

I don’t put much weight into highlights, but I do like to watch them before I really hunker down and watch a player, because if their highlights don’t do anything for you?  Well...

Edited by skinny21

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47 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

My point is I think a surprise defender might fall to us.  If this goes like the typical draft, you are likely going to have at least two O lineman go before our pick, 1-2 CBs, too.   That's 8 players.

 

I'd love to trade down if your scenario of 4 QB's in the Top 14 picks happens.  Get a later 1st and an extra 2nd rounder?  Hockenson, Fant, Irv...one should fall to the 2nd round right?  An underneath and YAC bully like Deebo Samuel who can create separation is missing from the offense.  A Nickel corner like Julian Love is something we don't have right now as Fabian Moreau looked a lot better on the outside.

 

I love that we should have two 3rd rounders.  There's some serious talent and depth to this DL/Edge class.  We may not need another DL, but Ioannidis is on the last year of his rookie deal and it's hard to pass up talent.  He also came from a loaded DL class.

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14 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

2. Working from a spread offense.  This one actually brings up a question (or two) I’ve been meaning to ask... which of the top qbs this year (those getting 1st-3rd round grades) did not operate in this type of offense?  And (since I’m pretty sure most of them did run them), why aren’t we hearing the same concern regarding these guys?

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/tag/contextualized-quarterbacking/

 

Maybe not the best metric, but pro-style offenses will use more route concepts designed to get others behind it open by clearing coverages away from an area.  How many of these guys attempted throws past their 1st read?

 

Daniel Jones, 6% of his throws went beyond his 1st read.

Drew Lock, 15%

Will Grier, 16%

Tyree Jackson, 17%

 

Jones is often called smart and more NFL Ready, part of that is due to how well he diagnoses pre-snap what his read should be.

 

I'd also like to see data about % of time they were Under Center instead of in Shotgun.

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25 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

I don’t put much weight into highlights, but I do like to watch them before I really hunker down and watch a player, because if their highlights don’t do anything for you?  Well...

 

I didn't watch an actual highlight video. It was more of those "every snap vs. x team" videos, so you get the whole picture of the performance. All I can say is...MEH. Not interested. He's athletic sure, but as an NFL QB, it's a hard pass in my opinion.

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2 hours ago, skinny21 said:

 

@Skinsinparadise just for fun/curiosity, who are your favs at 15 right now?

 

Tier 1:  One of the pass rushers, Ferrell, Polite, Sweat, Burns in that order.  But maybe there is something to Sweat having the size and arms that Polite doesn't so I might change my mind and out Sweat above him.  But I'd go one of the pass rushers.  Pass rushers cost a fortune in FA so its good value to find one in the draft.  I doubt Ferrell lands at 15.

 

Tier 2:  Delving deeper than that:  Hockenson, Cody Ford.  I also like the idea of Devin White but i haven't really dived into him much. 

 

Tier 3:  The guy I hyped the most months back is Marquise Brown.  But considering his size, I worry some about injuries.  I'd still like it if they picked him.

 

So not sure if I have one guy, yet.  If its purely about excitement -- Hockenson might be the coolest to me on that front -- having a monster blocking TE who can also catch -- when did we have a dude like that?

 

 

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise

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Ouch not very ringing endorsements of Jones and Grier (They have 2d and 4th round grades for a reason).

Edited by nonniey

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So, to sum up the first two days (based on media takes that have been posted here):

 

Lock, doing and saying the right things.  He's "got it factor".

 

Grier, next version of Jay "I don't care" Cutler.

 

Jones, about to tumble down draft boards.

 

2 minutes ago, nonniey said:

Ouch not very ringing endorsements of Jones and Grier (They have 2d and 4th round grades for a reason).

 

Jones says he was given a 1st round grade by the Advisory Committee.  They're noted for being strict and conservative in their grades right?  Seems odd that they screwed up so badly.

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