stevemcqueen1

2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

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Sutton Smith out of NIU - he’s undersized - 6’0, 234 - though he stands up to tackles pretty well.  Fantastic burst/get off and man does he get low.  If we don’t go edge rusher early, he looks like an interesting option.  

 

Ledyard gave him some crap for some Senior Bowl practice reps, but IMO he looks like a really nice situational rusher that might become more.  

 

This guy’s a bit more complimentary :)

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/johnowning/status/1008742316327092225

 

Edit:  almost forgot - 26.5 TFLs and 15 sacks in 2018

Edited by skinny21

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Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

 

Notables from the numbers

A couple quick things to consider as you think through who you think the Chiefs should or might take.

  • If you want a safe first round pick, OL (83%), LB (70%) and TE (67%) have the lowest "bust" rates.
  • TEs have a pretty reasonable chance of turning out in most rounds.
  • You are just as likely to have the same amount of success selecting a WR in the first or second round.
  • QBs seem to be first round or bust.
  • O-line in the first four rounds is a pretty safe bet.
  • Never take a TE, RB or QB in the 7th round if you hold out any hope of them being a starter. 
  • Taking a defensive lineman in the 4th round has a higher success probability than a 2nd or 3rd round pick.
  • RBs are a dime a dozen and so you might as well have a committee. 

Obviously, there are other factors that go into building a draft board. However, these numbers should give you pause when considering the potential in a given position and whether it's better to go after the position early or late. Looking at the outline for success, you can see why OL is considered the safe choice. Hindsight is always 20/20 but these numbers really opened my eyes as to why Dorsey as a first year GM would draft Fisher instead of Dion Jordan, Sheldon Richardson, Barkevious Mingo and the like.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round

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28 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

 

I think anyone should be cautious using this success chart even though it's based upon ten years of data.  The percentages are going to be skewed by teams that are historically bad at evaluating talent (Jets first round picks come to mind). You also have drafts that are thin at talent at particular positions so the %s would drop.  On the other hand, a deep draft would improve the %s in the later rounds.  Maybe over ten years it all averages out but I'm not sure how you would know.

 

Still, it makes for some interesting discussion.  Pick up your "safe" TE once in the first round and then fill out the TE roster with low round draft picks.  It seems like teams should be drafting WRs every year to evaluate/develop and discard.  It would be interesting to break out "OL" into Tackles versus C/G.  

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I’m not sure Emmanuel Hall lasts to our pick in the 3rd, but he’d be a great add if so.  Looks like he expanded on his route running this year to go along with his go route.  Fluid athlete with a serious combo of quickness and speed.  Looks like he’s more than capable of getting off jams. Eats up cushions in a hurry too.  

Catches with his body fairly often, but 1) that happens when you’re running deep and have to wait on a ball, and 2) he also made some nice concentration catches on balls thrown behind him (including back shoulder throws).  He also plucks the ball well on slants and screens.  

I would say he’s a solid 2nd rounder, but then again, there are a lot of receivers that could go in that range and so some will get pushed down to the 3rd (or even later).  

 

My only concern with him is the small injuries and the report that he doesn’t play at less than 100%, so interviews will be important I think.  I believe he’s gonna do really well at the combine drills though.  

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1 hour ago, PlayAction said:

 

Still, it makes for some interesting discussion.  Pick up your "safe" TE once in the first round and then fill out the TE roster with low round draft picks.

 

That is an interesting stat at TE. Probably reinforcing the facts we shouldn't have two sizeable TE contracts on the books, something not far off 10% of our 2019 cap space. 

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54 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

 

That is an interesting stat at TE. Probably reinforcing the facts we shouldn't have two sizeable TE contracts on the books, something not far off 10% of our 2019 cap space. 

 

Some successful teams lately have done it, such as the Eagles and Patriots.  But the difference there is both the Patriots TE's can block.  Neither of ours can.  If you use more 2 TE and 3 TE sets, it makes sense.

 

That said, I agree with you.  I think with the high hit rate, it follows that TE's should receive more churn on the roster.  Also makes me think we should be carrying 4 TE's on the roster instead of the usual 3.  Hit rate is about 1/3rd of the time in rounds 3-5.  Increasing TE's from 3 to 4, is also a 1/3rd increase.  Odds seem good right?

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

 

I wish they'd break up DB between CB and S, and I wish they broke up LB and DL to be Off-ball LB, Edge, and IDL.  I get why they didn't, searching would be damned hard to do that.

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Gotta remember that we've had some of the worst quarterbacking in the league since Snyder took over. That has a lot to do with poor wide receiver production.

 

It's a chicken or egg problem... same with the offensive line. Does the oline make it easy for the qb or does the qb make it easy for the oline. In reality it is both, but the qb always has the ball first and makes the initial decisions.

 

Im cutting doctson if he doesn't perform early on. Quinn is a keeper. Crowder wold be better off elsewhere. I'd like to see if Sims can make an impact. The rest are easily replaced. 

 

There is a lot of wr talent in this draft and I think it will be spread throughout the draft. Ideally, I'd take two in the mid rounds. 

 

 

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If we’re looking for a Crowder-like replacement, I like Greg Dortch from Wake Forest.  Small guy with excellent quickness that can return punts/kick.  Probably more of an UDFA.  

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47 minutes ago, sportjunkie07 said:

Gotta remember that we've had some of the worst quarterbacking in the league since Snyder took over. That has a lot to do with poor wide receiver production.

It's a chicken or egg problem... same with the offensive line. Does the oline make it easy for the qb or does the qb make it easy for the oline. In reality it is both, but the qb always has the ball first and makes the initial decisions.

Im cutting doctson if he doesn't perform early on. Quinn is a keeper. Crowder wold be better off elsewhere. I'd like to see if Sims can make an impact. The rest are easily replaced. 

There is a lot of wr talent in this draft and I think it will be spread throughout the draft. Ideally, I'd take two in the mid rounds. 

 

Most NFL analysts have said that the Skins WRs are unable to get any separation one-on-one against CBs.  Skins do a good job scheming but defenses figured out that they can shut down the passing game easily with man coverage.  I'm okay with Doctson since he's still on his rookie contract and we no longer expect him to be a #1 or #2 WR.  Quinn showed production in his limited action and he's cheap.  Crowder will probably be too expensive to keep considering alternatives.  Sims may wind up being a blocking WR with limited upside.  I'm more interested in seeing whether Davis can produce.  If not, it's time to give a new rookie a chance.  

 

Draft WR take longer to develop that other positions.  It's likely that any two rookie WRs may not really produce until the following year.  But if we are writing off this coming season then that's ok because any new QB is going to want to work with WRs that already know what they are doing.

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@PlayAction I’d like them to look for an already polished receiver (which I think they will).  Crowder was able to come in and produce immediately for us because his route running (and quickness) allowed him to separate.  

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2 hours ago, skinny21 said:

@PlayAction I’d like them to look for an already polished receiver (which I think they will).  Crowder was able to come in and produce immediately for us because his route running (and quickness) allowed him to separate.  

 

John Brown, formerly from Cardinals and Ravens.  There's not a whole lot of good separators in the FA group that play outside.  Several (including Crowder) that play in the slot.

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3 hours ago, PlayAction said:

 

Most NFL analysts have said that the Skins WRs are unable to get any separation one-on-one against CBs.  Skins do a good job scheming but defenses figured out that they can shut down the passing game easily with man coverage.

 

 

Most of the higher profile WR's in this draft don't fit that notion.  DK Metcalf has the potential to do whatever he wants.  But guys like JJAW, Butler, and N'Keal don't.  Need to watch more of Harmon, but from the game I saw he didn't either.

 

Deebo, Ridley, and Isabella do.  I haven't seen Hall, but supposedly he can.

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17 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

John Brown, formerly from Cardinals and Ravens.  There's not a whole lot of good separators in the FA group that play outside.  Several (including Crowder) that play in the slot.

I think (to your point), we need to look to the draft.  I’m presuming we take a wideout in round 2 or 3, but then go back to the well later.  Dortch, IMO, would be good competition to replace Crowder in the slot, with the return ability as an added bonus.  If we went that route (drafted/signed Dortch, and if he won the job), we could always move Quinn outside (competing to start and/or serving as our Ryan Grant - hopefully an improved version).  

 

Edit: just realized I wasn’t clear earlier - my last post was supposed to be about finding a polished guy in the draft.  

Edited by skinny21

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Jerce Sternberger.  3rd round?  He's only a one year starter but has good hands, YAC guy.  OK -- not great blocker yet.  I want Hochenson.  After him I. Smith and Fant.  But if they delve into the 3rd round or so for a TE, Sternberger might be a good choice.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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16 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

TE day three for me. Foster Moreau please. Blocker, hard graft, will be a great pro.

Zach Gentry is that guy for me.

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40 minutes ago, benskins26 said:

Our comp picks would be even better if the ravens hadn’t pulled that snake job on grant

 

And if Breeland hadn't hurt his foot on his own time!

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4 hours ago, skinny21 said:

I think (to your point), we need to look to the draft.  I’m presuming we take a wideout in round 2 or 3, but then go back to the well later.  Dortch, IMO, would be good competition to replace Crowder in the slot, with the return ability as an added bonus.  If we went that route (drafted/signed Dortch, and if he won the job), we could always move Quinn outside (competing to start and/or serving as our Ryan Grant - hopefully an improved version).  

 

Edit: just realized I wasn’t clear earlier - my last post was supposed to be about finding a polished guy in the draft.  

 

I don't want to pigeon hole ourselves into WR or bust on Day 2, but I think there's likely to be some solid WR's prospects around that can separate.  Not world beaters, but guys in the 5'11-6'0 range who project to be above average WR's in a rotation.  If we're lucky, they can develop into starting caliber players.

 

Can Quinn play outside?  I mean, the big thing with Grant was that he didn't have enough speed to do anything after he ran a good route.  Corners could recover on him.  Quinn is shifty, but not fast.

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5 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

I don't want to pigeon hole ourselves into WR or bust on Day 2, but I think there's likely to be some solid WR's prospects around that can separate.  Not world beaters, but guys in the 5'11-6'0 range who project to be above average WR's in a rotation.  If we're lucky, they can develop into starting caliber players.

 

Can Quinn play outside?  I mean, the big thing with Grant was that he didn't have enough speed to do anything after he ran a good route.  Corners could recover on him.  Quinn is shifty, but not fast.

Yeah, I’m not trying to pigeonhole them, I just think they’ll naturally look to those rds (2-3) for a receiver.  In part because it’s a weakness and they tend to attack their weaknesses in the draft, and in part because there’s solid depth/talent in that range.  

 

As for Quinn, I don’t know for sure, but 1) he played there in college, 2) I believe Gruden said he could (for what that’s worth), and 3) because I believe he has decent enough size and the combo of hands, quickness and precision in route running to get open.  With that said, I’m not sure about the speed to challenge deep, except maybe just occasionally like Crowder (which may be good enough as long we have a deep threat opposite, and maybe from the slot and TE spots).  

 

@Skinsinparadise I swear, every graphic/matrix you post to show how good Murray is... Grier’s right there in second.  It’s like you’re trying to solidify my take on him, lol.  

Edited by skinny21

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Wonder how many of those picks New England are going to wave in fan of the Steelers for Antonio Brown...even though Pitt have no interest in trading him there. Probably need a third team involved.

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13 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Yeah, I’m not trying to pigeonhole them, I just think they’ll naturally look to those rds (2-3) for a receiver.  In part because it’s a weakness and they tend to attack their weaknesses in the draft, and in part because there’s solid depth/talent in that range.  

 

As for Quinn, I don’t know for sure, but 1) he played there in college, 2) I believe Gruden said he could (for what that’s worth), and 3) because I believe he has decent enough size and the combo of hands, quickness and precision in route running to get open.  With that said, I’m not sure about the speed to challenge deep, except maybe just occasionally like Crowder (which may be good enough as long we have a deep threat opposite, and maybe from the slot and TE spots).  

 

@Skinsinparadise I swear, every graphic/matrix you post to show how good Murray is... Grier’s right there in second.  It’s like you’re trying to solidify my take on him, lol.  

 

Funny you mention him.  Just started rewatching Grier last night.  I watched a bunch of games during the season.  Last night, I watched the Texas, Texas Tech, Tennessee, Kansas State games.  I said months back among the day 2 types he's my favorite one to watch.  I'll double down on that today.  This is after watching now a bunch of Stidham, Rypien, Finley, Thorson. 

 

And yeah some on this thread who I respect don't think Grier will make it in the NFL.  I am not saying Grier will be an NFL QB.  But if I am taking a flier after the first round, Grier, I think is my guy.  I've seen people rip Thorson's, Rypien's, Finley's arm strength along with Grier.  And I think its all justified but Grier's arm to me seems stronger than the other three.  Actually one thing Grier and Rypien from what I observed have in common is they can get enough air on the long ball where neither really comes off to me as a bad deep ball thrower.  

 

But when I watch Grier he makes more wow throws and moves in the backfield than the other 2nd-4th rounders that I've watched so far.  I love Stidham's arm but to me he can come off like a hot mess under pressure.  If you give Stidham time and a clean pocket -- he'd be my favorite 2nd-4th rounder type.  But the NFL typically doesn't work that way.  Grier and Stidham to me have something in common.  They both look to be OK athletes but not great but they both escape the pocket at times and back peddle and dance so to speak like they are Russell Wilson level athletes even though both are far from it and they both get burned by it too often.  But Grier doesn't seem to get burned by it as much.

 

Seems like the most polarizing QB prospects where draft geeks are all over the map are: Jones, Lock and Grier.   I am firmly not in the Jones camp.  I am sort of in the Lock camp but not completely sold.  As for Grier, I am not per se on point that he will be an NFL starter but among that next leg of prospects -- why not him?  I'd risk it on him as opposed to the other guys. 

 

I attach some clips below that I liked of him.  One showcasing that he can be elusive in the pocket at times.  And his arm is at least OK.  Heck Colt is going to be our starter it seems this year.  Grier to me has a stronger arm than him.

 

Edit:  lol, just rewatched those clips, was listening to Hoffman last night while watching Grier games, somehow my computer recorded Hoffman over the 2nd clip I posted there. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/11/19/2019-draft-ed-oliver-attitude-character-houston-will-grier-chip-kelly-brian-kelly-trevor-lawrence

2. West Virginia QB Will Grier didn’t win on Saturday, but he showed his competitiveness in carrying his team back and giving them a shot at the end against Oklahoma State. NFL types love that about him. The question is, and has been, where his ceiling is. Some believe he’s a backup in the pros; others think he’s more. “The offense is funky, but he has arm talent,” says one NFC exec. “I’d like him on my team.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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