Califan007 The Constipated Posted September 18, 2015 Author Share Posted September 18, 2015 Well... you have to actually read what he said. It was in 2.5 seconds or less. But this is a great example of why advanced stats are dumb. Essentially this is a metric of "if the play/Wide Receiver was open - Cousins did well". I say that because if it's more than 2.5 seconds... obviously the 3 step drop route isn't open. That means either the play is dead or you have to rely on Kirk's down the field arm strength and accuracy... neither of which are very good. Quite the opposite (that part in bold). Just because a pass is thrown less than 2.5 seconds doesn't mean the WR was open...it could mean that the QB never looked off his first read. If the 3rd option was open but the QB threw it quickly to his first read that tells you quite a lot, especially if the QB does this with regularity. Similarly, if the pass is out of the QB's hand in less than 2.5 seconds and it's going to his 3rd read, it says a lot about the speed of how he goes through his progressions. Also, if it takes 2.6+ seconds to throw the ball it doesn't necessarly mean no WR was open...if there were WRs open immediately, it could mean the QB either didn't see them or had some reason for not throwing to the open WR quickly (perhaps he struggles against disguised coverages or certain defensive packages). I can imagine DC's all over the league using advanced stats to help augment their film study of upcoming QBs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califan007 The Constipated Posted September 18, 2015 Author Share Posted September 18, 2015 Not saying this guy doesnt know what he is talking about but....... "Left defensive end Stephen Paea had a sack and three hurries vs. Miami last week" As far as I know, he had no tackles, no sacks, and no hurries, based on all of the available stats, and my not seeing him in the game much. I saw that, too lol...at first figured he got confused and was thinking of Hatcher, not Paea, but would have had to go find QB pressure stats for defensive linemen and ain't nobody got no time for dat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 This is the NFL. If you watched Manning last night, everything was out of his hand quickly. It's not a metric of whether someone was open, it's a metric of knowing which player is the right read and getting the ball to them. Honestly I don't think a 101.9 QB Rating is that great in these situations, but it's not bad. Right, but what are Manning's stats when Kirks go south? When he has to take more than 2.5 seconds and adjust to the defense after the snap and go to alternate reads or improvise? That's where NFL QBs really earn their money, IMO. And that is where Kirk obviously (quantitatively and qualitatively) struggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califan007 The Constipated Posted September 18, 2015 Author Share Posted September 18, 2015 Right, but what are Manning's stats when Kirks go south? When he has to take more than 2.5 seconds and adjust to the defense after the snap and go to alternate reads or improvise? That's where NFL QBs really earn their money, IMO. And that is where Kirk obviously (quantitatively and qualitatively) struggles. Unfortunately, that's where Romo makes his $$$... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Unfortunately, that's where romoSUCKS makes his $$$... True. As much as I hate to admit it, Romo is very good when it comes to that stuff. Fortunately he sucks in some other aspects. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califan007 The Constipated Posted September 18, 2015 Author Share Posted September 18, 2015 True. As much as I hate to admit it, romoSUCKS is very good when it comes to that stuff. Fortunately he sucks in some other aspects. lol And we're all greatful for that lol... By the way, here are Manning's stats from last year when he holds the ball for more than 2.5 seconds: 67% completion rate 8.3 yards per attempt 8 TDs 3 INTs 99.9 QB rating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC9 Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Quite the opposite (that part in bold). Just because a pass is thrown less than 2.5 seconds doesn't mean the WR was open...it could mean that the QB never looked off his first read. If the 3rd option was open but the QB threw it quickly to his first read that tells you quite a lot, especially if the QB does this with regularity. Similarly, if the pass is out of the QB's hand in less than 2.5 seconds and it's going to his 3rd read, it says a lot about the speed of how he goes through his progressions. Also, if it takes 2.6+ seconds to throw the ball it doesn't necessarly mean no WR was open...if there were WRs open immediately, it could mean the QB either didn't see them or had some reason for not throwing to the open WR quickly (perhaps he struggles against disguised coverages or certain defensive packages). I can imagine DC's all over the league using advanced stats to help augment their film study of upcoming QBs. It doesn't specify any of that stuff though. So Aaron Rodgers throwing a fade or a perfectly timed and thrown pass to some obscure location 20 yards down the field is given the same credit as someone throwing a quick slant or a bubble screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califan007 The Constipated Posted September 18, 2015 Author Share Posted September 18, 2015 It doesn't specify any of that stuff though. So Aaron Rodgers throwing a fade or a perfectly timed and thrown pass to some obscure location 20 yards down the field is given the same credit as someone throwing a quick slant or a bubble screen. Yeah, but you said "advanced stats are dumb"...that doesn't indicate context would have changed your opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC9 Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Yeah, but you said "advanced stats are dumb"...that doesn't indicate context would have changed your opinion. This is certainly an example of why I feel that way yes. Cause it tells us nothing. And when you see stuff like this it always begs follow-up questions. I just get annoyed when people seem to think they've found the holy grail of advanced stats when in reality, nothing will replace film. It's an interesting article though and I didn't mean anything against you personally by disagreeing with the measurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califan007 The Constipated Posted September 18, 2015 Author Share Posted September 18, 2015 This is certainly an example of why I feel that way yes. Cause it tells us nothing. And when you see stuff like this it always begs follow-up questions. I just get annoyed when people seem to think they've found the holy grail of advanced stats when in reality, nothing will replace film. It's an interesting article though and I didn't mean anything against you personally by disagreeing with the measurable. I agree with you one billion percent there (the part in bold)...always thought that way. But maybe it's because I don't understand half the advanced stats that get posted lol ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC9 Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 I agree with you one billion percent there (the part in bold)...always thought that way. But maybe it's because I don't understand half the advanced stats that get posted lol ... I have no idea either. DG used to post spread sheets in his threads that made me question why we weren't winning more games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Califan007 The Constipated Posted September 18, 2015 Author Share Posted September 18, 2015 By the way, I screwed up Manning's stats that I posted earlier. It's for 2013, not 2014. In 2013, for all of Manning's passes that took between 2.5-3.5 seconds to throw: 65.2% completion rate 9.6 yards per attempt 11 TDs 5 INTs 104.2 QB rating For Griffin in 2013 55.4% completion rate 6.9 yards per attempt 3 TDs 5 INTs 67.8 QB rating The list I found doesn't show Cousins' stats, so going off of the stats listed in this article: Cousins last year: 49% completion rate 61.5 QB rating I have no idea either. DG used to post spread sheets in his threads that made me question why we weren't winning more games. I've had DG dismiss me in a condescending manner when I asked what all that gobblygook meant lol...it was like he was saying "Don't be an idiot, Califan"...and I'm thinking I'm not being an idiot, I AM an idiot lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MassSkinsFan Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 I've seen a lot of mentions of the apparent need to make halftime adjustments. I haven't paid a huge amount of attention to that, but it seems to me the lack of halftime adjustments killed us last year and also this last Sunday. If anything, it looks like the adjustments are to go conservative and try to protect very small leads, which is something this team should not be doing. Can anyone offer up an informed opinion of whether our coaches are any good at this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RamzFanz Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 It's rather amazing that the Rams have sacked Wilson 18 times in the 4 games at home. Yet last year the Rams were mid-pack as far as sacks go. Perhaps they just have Wilson's number. Last season they installed a new DC and scheme. It just didn't click right away. 1 sack in 5 games then jumped to 3.6 per game. Donald didn't start until game 5. The D was much improved the second half of the season. I wouldn't let last season's total trick you into thinking 6 sacks was a big anomaly. I think 4-5 will be the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 But when Cousins holds the ball for more than 2.5 seconds, he’s a different quarterback. And not nearly as good. On his 2.6+ throws last season Cousins completed only 49 percent with a passer rating of 61.5. Facing Miami, Cousins connected on 44 percent of the his 2.6+ passes, threw two interceptions and had a sickly passer rating of only 13. The Rams’ assignment couldn’t be clearer. Their rushers have to find a way to out-quick Cousins, and it won’t be easy. You mean to tell me when the QB has to go off-schedule with the play, whether it's moving out of the pocket or just cycling through reads again, he's more likely to throw an errant pass? Color me: surprised! (It's a great article that part just made me laugh ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC9 Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Last season they installed a new DC and scheme. It just didn't click right away. 1 sack in 5 games then jumped to 3.6 per game. Donald didn't start until game 5. The D was much improved the second half of the season. I wouldn't let last season's total trick you into thinking 6 sacks was a big anomaly. I think 4-5 will be the norm. A few things.... and with not hijacking the thread. 1) We've all seen the Gregg Williams movie here. It's awesome. 2) You didn't spell Ramz or Fanz correctly 3) Are you plural? I just have to know. I think the Rams can get to Cousins, but depending on the whole game (ie: if it's close or if he's dropping back 30 plus times --- which I think is a direct correlation of your stats from last year) but I'd be surprised if it was for 5 sacks. I think even 4 is a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Probos Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Well... you have to actually read what he said. It was in 2.5 seconds or less. But this is a great example of why advanced stats are dumb. Essentially this is a metric of "if the play/Wide Receiver was open - Cousins did well". I say that because if it's more than 2.5 seconds... obviously the 3 step drop route isn't open. That means either the play is dead or you have to rely on Kirk's down the field arm strength and accuracy... neither of which are very good. Ah jeeez,...I missed the line before the stats -- my mistake. Yeah, it seems a bit down in the weeds slicing and dicing stats like that. Pretty meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC9 Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Ah jeeez,...I missed the line before the stats -- my mistake. Yeah, it seems a bit down in the weeds slicing and dicing stats like that. Pretty meaningless. Yeah, it's not quite up there with the "Turnpike Tech University College has never lost on a Tuesday night after Labor Day when there is a full moon" but it's got the same theme. Cool stat, but other than "dude gets the ball out quick" it doesn't really tell us that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 This is certainly an example of why I feel that way yes. Cause it tells us nothing. And when you see stuff like this it always begs follow-up questions. I just get annoyed when people seem to think they've found the holy grail of advanced stats when in reality, nothing will replace film. It's an interesting article though and I didn't mean anything against you personally by disagreeing with the measurable. My personal favorite for "advanced stats" is our very own ncr. Nothing against him personally; he obviously knows football and likes to talk about it. But some of his stats were hilarious when he was trying prove a point. "When he throws more than 32.3 passes in stadiums with grass turf and above a 56.8% completion rate between the beginning and end of the second commercial breaks of the first half and the defense allows less than 23.3 points then he loses more. Thus, he sucks". lawl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpacePenguin Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 My personal favorite for "advanced stats" is our very own ncr. Nothing against him personally; he obviously knows football and likes to talk about it. But some of his stats were hilarious when he was trying prove a point. "When he throws more than 32.3 passes in stadiums with grass turf and above a 56.8% completion rate between the beginning and end of the second commercial breaks of the first half and the defense allows less than 23.3 points then he loses more. Thus, he sucks". lawl His point which turned out to be absolutely correct.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrepDC Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 Cousins is legit when it comes to getting the ball out fast. He's going to get rid of it for better or for worse. You'd have to beat him with your secondary making plays before you beat him with your DL from what I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted September 18, 2015 Share Posted September 18, 2015 The bad news for Redskins fans is, the Rams don't HAVE to get to Kirk, to "get to him". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistertim Posted September 19, 2015 Share Posted September 19, 2015 His point which turned out to be absolutely correct.... Correlation doesn't equal causation. He could have said "He walks down the street and only looks one way before crossing on the days that he drinks decaf instead of regular coffee" and he still would have been "correct". I doubt it had much to do with his insanely cherry picked stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.