Shortcut21 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Hello - as you can see I am a bit new here. I searched for this topic, and read over the rules, hopefully I do not break them. I've been roaming here a lot, and know many of you know more about football than I do. My main sport is baseball, but am a Redskins fan. This article with T. Kornheiser ( I know, I am not a fan of his) sounded interesting, and atleast a different take on things. “The players are terrible. The people picking the players have picked the wrong players, time and time and time again, for whatever reason. And…I would follow the pattern that was started by Billy Beane in Major League Baseball. I would look at the kind of mathematical equation that was never before used in baseball and now is all the rage in baseball. And I’m not saying you don’t look at players physically, but you use analytics, you use metrics, whatever these words are. You try a new system to acquire players and to acquire coaches who will buy into that system. Link to story - http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc-sports-bog/wp/2014/12/01/tony-kornheiser-says-advanced-metrics-could-save-the-redskins/?tid=gravity_1.0_strip_2 I do not support his ideas, but found it interesting and almost believe Snyder may do something like this. Do you think it could work? I am not sure it could in the NFL. I also find it interesting that many of the things Kornheiser says has been stated one way or another here at extremeskins. I don't understand why Allen/Snyder potentially do not see it.... Thanks for your time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsHokieFan Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Bill Barnwell @billbarnwell · Dec 1 True story: Washington hired an economist to do analytics in 2006. He lasted two weeks before realizing how useless the org was and quit. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/25/sports/football/more-nfl-teams-hire-statisticians-but-their-use-remains-mostly-guarded.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 More N.F.L. Teams Hire Statisticians but Their Use Remains Mostly Guarded Jeff Dominitz grew up rooting for the Washington Redskins during their glory years under Joe Gibbs. So when an N.F.L. team called him in 2006 about a job doing statistical research and analysis for the scouting department, he could not say no. He left his teaching position at Carnegie Mellon and, temporarily, his family and wound up living alone near the team’s headquarters. The first sign that Dominitz’s work might not be fully embraced came when he reported to the team’s facility. According to Dominitz, who has a Ph.D. in economics, he was told that the head coach had been informed about Dominitz after he was already hired. The coach’s response, Dominitz was told, was, “We’re still about people here.” Dominitz then learned that he would be seated not with the scouting department, compiling detailed information about player prospects, but at a cubicle in a separate building, with the marketing department. Seven weeks later, Dominitz was gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boss_Hogg Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I heard Tony Kornholio's proposal about this. I'm not even sure if this possible..do you draft based on wonderlic scores or something? Because it's obvious we have a **** ton of dummies on this team...coaches and front office included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BatteredFanSyndrome Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I don't know what would make you "almost believe" Danny would do something like this. The last time this happened the guy was sent packing a few weeks later. Sorry, but this will never happen. The highest probability for change we have is hiring a real GM and those chances are extremely slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsHokieFan Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I heard Tony Kornholio's proposal about this. I'm not even sure if this possible..do you draft based on wonderlic scores or something? Because it's obvious we have a **** ton of dummies on this team...coaches and front office included. A great quote from Tony Khan on this from the article I linked The Jacksonville Jaguars, who this year created a football technology and analytics group, have pondered all those questions. The coaching staff had expressed interest in having information about how to function under the league’s new overtime rules, which call for each team to get a possession unless the first team to get the ball scores a touchdown. But because the rule was so new, there were simply not enough comparable examples of game-time situations to produce a reliable model, said Tony Khan, the son of the Jaguars’ new owner, Shad Khan, and the head of the analytics group. “Baseball is an easier sport to prove out some of these concepts, because there are less variables,” Tony Khan said. “You can isolate the defense behind them; it’s essentially a one-on-one matchup. And there are so many more plays in baseball that you can look at. If you want to look at every fourth down and five from that team’s own 36-yard line, there aren’t going to be all that many of those. And the 11-on-11 nature makes it harder to isolate credit for success and harder to isolate blame for mistakes. There is a reason why this caught on a lot sooner and developed a lot further in baseball than football.” I am certain either Dan Snyder, Vinny Cerrato or someone close to them read "Moneyball" sometime last decade which is why they went out and hired an economist. However Gibbs had no use for this person and the org had no idea what to do with the person and the data I really think whatever team figures out what data is good, and how to use it both in the front office and on gameday will unlock something very special. It is just difficult to have a WAR stat in football like there is in baseball considering all the variables involved in football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shortcut21 Posted December 4, 2014 Author Share Posted December 4, 2014 I don't know what would make you "almost believe" Danny would do something like this. The last time this happened the guy was sent packing a few weeks later. Sorry, but this will never happen. The highest probability for change we have is hiring a real GM and those chances are extremely slim. I based it off of this quote... which is somewhat true... “I’m saying that there’s somebody out there who has taken all of this stuff into account and has a formula….I’ll bet you there’s somebody out there that could convince you on 50 percent of an evaluation that this is what you look for, this type of player, and that the given is heart, that they have heart and they want the conflict. The Redskins could be the first team to do anything like this, because how much worse could it get? I just don't see us getting smart and hiring a true GM. I also wondered if it were possible to do moneyball tactics in todays NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duckus Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I can't find it right now but when Gruden was first hired he had a quote about advanced statistics that absolutely made me cringe. It was something along the lines of - "I don't believe in that stuff. I think ya got to coach em up and let em play." I cringed when I read it and I posted about it here. Combine that with an owner who claims to not use email...well, I say we are ****ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsHokieFan Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I can't find it right now but when Gruden was first hired he had a quote about advanced statistics that absolutely made me cringe. It was something along the lines of - "I don't believe in that stuff. I think ya got to coach em up and let em play." I cringed when I read it and I posted about it here. Combine that with an owner who claims to not use email...well, I say we are ****ed. This organization really lacks any forward thinking and hires people who have no forward progressive thinking Chip Kelly would have failed instantly here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duckus Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 This organization really lacks any forward thinking and hires people who have no forward progressive thinking Chip Kelly would have failed instantly here Exactly. Folks here like to make fun of the Jags - but I would switch places with them in a heartbeat. They might be worse than us this year, but they have a really interesting and forward thinking plan in place. It might not work, but at least they are trying something different and pushing forward with new ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riggo-toni Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Belichik has a guy on his staff he's used his entire career who's almost like Rain Man. He has a near photographic memory and is a statistical analysis whiz. Guy has never played or coached football in his life, and supposedly Modell used to complain about paying his salary when he had no idea what the guy did. I don't think he's used for personnel, but when the Pats go for it on 4th down, he was probably consulted first. Atlanta Skins Fan does statistical analysis and claimed to have come up w/a formula for grading out QBs. Initially it looked impressive, but his results projected great success for Grossman, Brady Quinn, and Greg McElroy. I think such analyses for college scouting are worthless because it is a different game, but I think it would be quite beneficial for allocation of free agent dollars....and might discourage Generalissimo Snydo from overindulgence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Braxford Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Exactly. Folks here like to make fun of the Jags - but I would switch places with them in a heartbeat. They might be worse than us this year, but they have a really interesting and forward thinking plan in place. It might not work, but at least they are trying something different and pushing forward with new ideas. I agree. I would switch places with them in a heartbeat. I really try to be positive about the Skins, now I just won't let them ruin my weekends but will always support the team. Under Snyder, I have seen the team become a soap opera more often than not. I hope I am wrong but I think things are going to get a lot worse before they get better. It's like being in the middle of a slow death that still has a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowhunter Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 The biggest metric should make sure that a players effort was greater than their ego. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC9 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I don't know that "money" is the issue. The difference between baseball and football is that baseball doesn't have a salary cap or a salary floor like football does. However, I agree that the Redskins SHOULD have a wing in their FO and scouting department that studies, understands, and applies advanced stats to film when scouting. As much as I dislike them, if they are weighed correctly, they are a great tool to have. I can't find it right now but when Gruden was first hired he had a quote about advanced statistics that absolutely made me cringe. It was something along the lines of - "I don't believe in that stuff. I think ya got to coach em up and let em play." I cringed when I read it and I posted about it here. Combine that with an owner who claims to not use email...well, I say we are ****ed. And I'm fine with that... as I believe Grudes should have very little input in player selection. But I'm absolutely fine with my Head Coach having that opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrelgreenie Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 But teams DO use analytics. I'm not sure whether the our FO does but teams develop their own and teams outsource; heck some teams use Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ANONYMOUS SOURCE. Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Not sure how a system like that could be adapted to football exactly but could definitely be another tool in the process. Scouts present the grades the "Mathletes" run the numbers, then Football guys give their input. If all the parties "click" on a guy then the teams odds of getting it right should be better I would think. If it were successful what would the Skins FO do with the ole magic 8 ball? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC9 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 But teams DO use analytics. I'm not sure whether the our FO does but teams develop their own and teams outsource; heck some teams use Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders. I also believe the Eagles were the first team to have their own "Sports Science" guy. We're still using metrics that justify Haz staying on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duckus Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 And I'm fine with that... as I believe Grudes should have very little input in player selection. But I'm absolutely fine with my Head Coach having that opinion. Advanced stats shouldn't just be for player selection. I think there is a big place for it in weekly game planning. Hell, you should be making in-game adjustments based on analytics live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC9 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Advanced stats shouldn't just be for player selection. I think there is a big place for it in weekly game planning. Hell, you should be making in-game adjustments based on analytics live. You're talking someone who refuses to buy a smart phone or get trade his laptop in for a tablet. Bring your fancy stats and I'll bring my 46 defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s0crates Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Football isn't baseball. Saber metrics works in baseball because you can plug and play, but I don't think you can do that in football. For example, a batter's RBI doesn't suffer because of players around him the way a RB's YPC is effected by his offensive line. Another example, a second basemen will still play second base the same way even if he switches teams in the middle of a season, but a quarterback that switches teams has to learn different plays, calls, and offensive systems. In a way football is much less an individual sport than baseball. It requires a level of cohesion with teammates and coaches in a way that baseball doesn't. In baseball you can just put the right pieces in the right places, but in football you have to get the pieces to cooperate. I'm not sure it would translate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pl73 Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 There is a great deal of misunderstanding about "moneyball". Moneyball has nothing to do with, and never did, a specific evaluation or quantity, so you can't say that it "won't work in football". It works in EVERY area because the concept of moneyball is in finding out what things in your market or area are in general undervalued. In the baseball sense, it started out with stats guys realising that OBP was much more important than many teams realised, so smart teams - the As - could stockpile guys with stats that didnt "look great" in traditional metrics but were in fact very valuable, and could be had at below market cost. Later on as teams caught onto this it became about things like defense metrics, or stuff like Fielding independent pitching etc The Redskins are the anti Moneyball team since they've for a ´long team paid over premium dollars for aging talents that look good on paper (or did in the past). I would say teams like the Patriots operate a moneyball style with value contracts and drafting and avoiding committing too much to high profile stars and traditional headline players. The Redskins could definitely use some "moneyball" ideas but the problem is the people in charge, or person, don't seem to be interested in finding a new organisational philosophy thats sustainable and sticking with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brokenstriker Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 the thing about Moneyball was that the GM embraced it and used it to remake the team without a GM who will do that ... complete waste of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gary Clark Fan Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 this organization would have no idea how to deal with the moneyball concept. The only part they are interested in is the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riggo-toni Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Snyder's Redskins already have their own version of moneyball. Every year they take our money and kick us in the balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinInsite Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Finding under valued players who fit your scheme better than other? Sounds like what Patriots does every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riggo-toni Posted December 5, 2014 Share Posted December 5, 2014 Finding under valued players who fit your scheme better than other? Sounds like what Patriots does every year. And guess what Belichik's degree is in - Economics (seriously). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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