Redskins and Moneyball Comparison

[BG]

How would you not already at least have some numbers on probability? Probability of failure with three pass catchers taken in one round? Probability of being draft raped when you trade multiple picks - present and future - just to move up a few spots to draft one player. Probability that your organization is chaotic and mismanaged as you've hired and fired more coaches over the last 15 years than the NFL combined. Probability that continuously outbidding other teams for overpriced free agents leads to failure. Silly mathematics.

[Gary Clark Fan]

Here is some simple arithmetic: 

 

Dan Snyder + (assert any variable) = Losers!

How would you not already at least have some numbers on probability? Probability of failure with three pass catchers taken in one round? Probability of being draft raped when you trade multiple picks - present and future - just to move up a few spots to draft one player. Probability that your organization is chaotic and mismanaged as you've hired and fired more coaches over the last 15 years than the NFL combined. Probability that continuously outbidding other teams for overpriced free agents leads to failure. Silly mathematics.

[NoCalMike]

As an A's fan out here in NoCal, I can tell you that moneyball definitely has it's disadvantages as well and was almost created out of necessity in the first place due to an owner that won't spend market value.

 

Moneyball is all about getting max value out of a player, whether they are a good player or not.  You sign players and try to use them in specific ways that highlight their strengths and mask their weaknesses.  A big reason you don't see many players on the team hitting for a good .avg, because outside of their comfort zone they are average.  Also, you see a ton of platooning of players, it is all about what kind of pitcher(s) they match up with and playing them on those days, and sitting them on the other days.  Sometimes it is as simple as lefty on righty/vice versa.

 

The issue I have seen with this philosophy is that it creates a roster full of players who are unreliable on the big stage, when they will often be forced to perform in the short term.  Over a 162 game season you can absorb a slump and move on, but once the playoffs come you can't overcome only having a bunch of average players who might not come up lame.  Not to say elite players don't often choke in the post season as well though sometimes.

 

Also, like others have pointed out, baseball by nature is much more plug n play friendly than the NFL.  In the NFL every single play on the field is usually up to 11 guys to make happen correctly.  In baseball, hitter vs. pitcher is always the biggest factor on 90% of the plays.

[ThomasRoane]

I've been using statistics for many years. I'm a lean six sigma green belt and what impressed me most about the concept is you can't improve what you don't measure.  I've shown my grading system to coaches at Virginia Tech and they agree mine is way more complex.  It helps me to figure out who is doing their job the best physically and mentally.  After each game all my players, even those who don't play much, get a grade sheet that has their game stats for offense, defense and special teams.  What I preach to them most is that I want them to grade as close to 90% as possible week to week.  I don't want that kid who is 95% one week and 40% the next. You can't win consistently that way.  My point system is also used to identify the best player at each position group and we in turn use that for special trophies at the end of the year.  It also levels the playing field and lets every player see how important his team mates are.  The last two years our MVP has been a lineman for both Offense and Defense.

 

Now, statistics are great for allowing you to see what happened in the last game.  They can even give you a good idea on your opponent.  You may have stats that show that 65% of the time your opponent has a 2nd down and 3 yds or less he takes a shot down field with play action or a long ball.  So you can have your defense play coverage in that situation.

 

As for using stats to select players though I thnk there are just way too many variables.  You can get their combine scores, their wonderlic, etc before the draft.  There are a lot of things you can't simulate though and that's where the Human Dimension (as we call it in the Army) comes into play.  You have to do more homework on the players background, upbringing and values than his in-game stats or his measurables.  Jamarcus Russell wowed all the scouts with his size and athleticism.  He was a winner at the college level with LSU.  Yet that all amounted to nothing because he realized he loved food more than football and eventually eat his way out of the league.

 

Let's look at two of our players.  You have two very similar corners in Amerson and Breeland. 

 

Similarities:

 

Both are 22 years old

Both played in the ACC

 

Differences:

Amerson has a longer reach

Amerson is about 2 inches taller

Amerson has bigger hands

Amerson is faster

 

If both were available at the same time in the draft and you went by metrics then you'd say Amerson is the guy you take without a doubt.  Yet just this Sunday vs the Colts you had Breeland (a rookie) playing a foreign position (in the slot) and he owned it.  You had Amerson (who is in his second year) out there covering grass most of the game while Luck and the Colts receivers enjoyed their 7 on 7 practice.  Why the difference?  A report just came out from Haz about how hard Breeland works at his game.  He's always taking extra work, studying and watching film. Then take Alfred Morris.  There was no way I thought he would be a feature back in 2012 with the competition he had.  He has none of the measurables yet he has all of what you really need.  Heart and work ethic.

 

Now, if you can find a way to measure the heart and work ethic of a player then you have something worth analyzing.  The only way I know of is to get scouts out and talk to everyone who knows the players you want to draft.  Little league coaches, teachers, team mates, equipment managers, trainers, etc.  I do like one comment Bruce Allen made about looking for players who were team captains.  That's a good start but does not nearly go far enough.  If Dan is serious about building a quality team he needs to do what Jason Reid from WAPO has been screaming about.  DOUBLE THE SIZE OF THE SCOUTING DEPARTMENT!!!  Instead of beating the war drum to fire Jay, or Bruce, or Haz or trading RG III we need to help Jason Reid beat the drum for more scouts.
 

[Warhead36]

The Redskins are everything Moneyball isn't. In fact we are the exact antithesis of Moneyball. If they made a movie on how to perfect being a losing franchise that does EVERYTHING backwards and wrong, it would be about us.

 

This organization is just dumb across the board. As SHF said, we have no progressive thinkers. Nobody who is creative or innovative in any aspect. Kyle Shanahan fit that mold, but we let him go, and even many of our fans hated him because he didn't run 50 gut often enough.