BBC: Ukraine sanctions imposed amid Kiev clashes

[Larry]

There is actually a great deal we could do economically and militarily but it would mean reversing some of the decision this administration has come to over the past few years.  

 

The first of these is to recognise that Russia is not an ally and does not have our best interests at heart.

Of course, that isn't something this administration has actually done. But why let that get in the way of some partisan politics?

 

It would be better if we curbed this now.

I agree with you.

Any recommendations on how to go about that?

[visionary]

I like what we're doing with sanctions so far, but I do wonder if it's a good thing in the long run to push Russia to become a more self sufficient and closed in place.  Authoritarian governments tend to be able to buckle down and survive even when most administrations would collapse from the economic strain.  Putin may lose financial support, but many a ruler has been able to go on without much of it as long as they have the support of the military, security services and can scare people into following them.  If Putin decides he'd rather lose friends than face things could go very badly. 

 

From a different line of thinking, Russia could get tricky with the sanctions and find ways to maneuver around them by moving assets around or having others pay for things for them.  Less convenient, but also less crippling than we might want.  Just something to watch out for, but I'm sure we're aware of these kinds of things anyway.

 

 

 

 

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/03/20/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t2

Russia lawmakers vote to annex Crimea; U.S. steps up sanctions

 

The United States responded with tougher sanctions after Moscow's lower house of parliament overwhelmingly approved a treaty Thursday to annex the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea from Ukraine.

 

After Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had presented the treaty and urged lawmakers to accept the region as a part of the Russian Federation, the document was approved on a vote of 443 to 1.

 

Russia's Federation Council upper house will hold a similar vote Friday, completing ratification of a treaty that was signed by President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday.

 

Speaking "on behalf" of Putin, Lavrov had told the State Duma that folding Crimea into Russia was needed to protect ethnic Russians there.

 

"I am certain that passing the document will become a turning point in the destiny of multi-ethnic nations of Crimea and Russia, who are related with close ties of the historical unity," Lavrov said.

 

"These nations joining in the framework of one state will certainly help grow wealth and prosperity and is in line with Russia's interests."

 

http://time.com/14821/ukraine-russia-mikheil-saakashvili-vladimir-putin-lies/

A Chat With an Old Putin Rival: ‘He Likes to Lie’

 

http://blogs.reuters.com/nicholas-wapshott/2014/03/20/will-secession-seal-putins-doom/

Will secession seal Putin’s doom?

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin chose a referendum on secession, attended by 15,000 menacing troops, as the means to pry Crimea away from Ukraine. This choice runs directly counter to his long-held beliefs about the need to maintain the integrity of his nation at all costs.

 

With the results in, it may seem that Putin has achieved exactly what he set out to do: restore Crimea to Russia after 60 years as part of Ukraine. But promoting the principle that secession can be legitimate on the basis of a single hastily-arranged plebiscite in the middle of a military occupation provides a precedent that may prove Putin’s ultimate undoing.

 

Until Putin annexed Crimea, secession was the dirtiest word in his playbook. He watched, appalled, as one after another former Soviet republic opted for independence from Russia. He has repeatedly punished those brave dissenters who dare advocate leaving the Russian federation.

 

By legitimizing secession, however, Putin has opened the door to all those nationalists, Chechens, Muslims and other minorities who believe their future prosperity and human rights are best served by detaching themselves from Russia’s centralizing grasp.

 

For a short term gain, Putin has inadvertently legitimized the right of minority communities to go their own ways with the help of a foreign government. When former Soviet republics like the Baltic republics escaped their Russian masters by voting to secede from the old Soviet bloc, the Western powers cheered that after 70 years of colonization, the people had chosen self-determination over satellite status.

 

 

 

http://europolitics.info/livenews/140320163931.t3hv1sm0.xml

EU to extend visa ban, asset freeze list over Ukraine: Merkel

BERLIN, March 20, 2014 (AFP)

 

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Thursday that the EU would target more figures with travel bans and asset freezes over the Ukraine crisis, and also warned of economic sanctions.

 

Merkel told parliament that Russia's absorption of Ukraine's Crimea region, which has been condemned as a violation of international law, demanded a "resolute and united" response by Europe and its partners.

 

"At the European Council beginning today, the heads of state and government of the European Union will decide further phase-two sanctions that we agreed two weeks ago," Merkel said ahead of the two-day summit in Brussels.

 

Among them would be "an extension of the list of responsible people against whom travel restrictions and account freezes are in effect," she said.

 

This week, the EU ratcheted up its response by slapping an asset freeze and travel ban on 21 Russians and Ukrainians deemed to be behind the annexation of Crimea, including three top military brass.

 

Merkel also warned Moscow of possible economic sanctions if the crisis escalates.

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/EllenBarryNYT

There are almost certainly people on the new sanctions list who've thought of themselves as a potential successor to VVP.

12:23 PM

 

The thought of seeing Bank Rossiya frozen out of the dollar is going to send shudder thro Russia's banking, corporate worlds   

1:01 PM

 

https://twitter.com/Billbrowder

Anyone on a US sanctions list will effectively be frozen out of the entire financial system in the world. Not just US. 

11:32 AM

 

Being on US sanctions list also means any company with any US presence will be violating US sanctions if they do any business w/these people

11:37 AM

 

This is a proper step that will make Putin pay real attention. A surgical strike right at the heart of kleptocracy 

11:41 AM

 

Doesn't make Gunvor bankrupt. Just impossible to operate in the global financial system 

11:52 AM

 

 

 

[Larry]

The Bulgarian prime minister says he will not support large scale economic sanctions against Russia without assessing the impact first, Reuters reports.

The prime minister reportedly went on to say he is pessimistic that large scale sanctions will be imposed.

The Bulgarian prime minister says it is likely to be among a 'big group' of countries that oppose large scale sanctions, adding that he is convinced the European Council will find a 'balanced and strong' decision to the response to the Crimea situation, Reuters reports.

The prime minister says compensatory mechanisms should be discussed in sanctions are approved, according to Reuters.

Translation: "Sanctions will hurt us, and we will oppose them unless someone promises to pay us".

Which affects my opinion of the diplomats of the world, not one bit.

----------

However, financially, I do believe we could cause him serious problems, if we wanted to take action.  Putin's hold on Russia is not iron clad.   The Russian people have no desire to go back to the "Good Old Days" of the USSR.   They have gotten a tast of what it's like to have certain comforts and people in Russia, who have acquired money are powerful and have sway over Putin and what he can or can't do.   I think they would depose him before they would go back to the good old days.  

 

That's just my opinion thou.

You think we have the ability to hurt the Russian economy, if Europe doesn't go along with us?

I confess I'm no expert in geopolitical economics. But I find that hard to believe.

[visionary]

http://thinkprogress.org/world/2014/03/20/3416324/russia-ukraine-dod-helicopters/

Amid Ukraine Crisis, U.S.-Purchased Russian Helicopters Still Scheduled For Afghanistan

 

Russian-made helicopters — purchased using U.S. funding for the Afghan army’s use — are still on pace for delivery the Pentagon has confirmed, moving forward with delivery despite the current deep freeze in relations between the two former Cold War adversaries.

 

The Pentagon’s purchase of 33 Mi-17 attack helicopters was the first major deal inked with Russian state-owned arms exporter Rosoboronexport since sanctions on the company were lifted in 2010. The initial version of the contract was signed in 2011 and was followed up last June with an order for an additional 30 helicopters. By then, however, Congress was in full revolt, banning the deal in legislation that the administration swiftly overturned as a national security concern. Last November, reports indicated that the Defense Department was giving up on the purchase of additional helicopters from Russia — but intended to follow through on the already signed contract.

 

“In November, the department announced that we were delivering all of the Mi17s agreed to in the Afghan Program of Record, on time and as planned,” Pentagon spokesperson Maureen Schumann said in an email. “After initially requesting funds from Congress in the [fiscal year 2014] budget to provide additional enhancements for the Afghan National Security Forces, the department has re-evaluated requirements in consultation with Congress. We currently do not have plans to purchase additional Mi17s from Rosoboronexport beyond those in the Afghan Program of Record.”

 

 

http://www.azatutyun.am/content/article/25303818.html

U.S. Disappointed With Armenia’s Crimea Stance

 

Հրապարակված է՝ 20.03.2014

 

John Heffern, the U.S. ambassador to Armenia, on Thursday voiced Washington’s disappointment with the Armenian government’s decision to effectively recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea strongly condemned by the West.

Heffern described as “very unfortunate” President Serzh Sarkisian’s statement to that effect made during a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The envoy reiterated the official U.S. line that the weekend referendum in which residents of Crimea voted for becoming part of Russia was illegal. “There are many things [the Russians] could have done short of what they did,” he said at an international conference on regional security held in Yerevan.

Sarkisian was quoted by his press office as telling Putin that the vote engineered by Moscow was “yet another example of the realization of peoples’ right to self-determination.” Official Yerevan had until then avoided taking sides in the broader crisis in Ukraine that has brought about Russia’s most serious standoff with the West since the end of the Cold War.

 

http://news.belta.by/en/news/society?id=743174

NATO HQ delegation in Belarus on a visit

 

A delegation of the NATO headquarters has arrived in Belarus on a visit until 21 March, BelTA learnt from the press service of the Defense Ministry of Belarus.

The NATO delegation, led by Jean-Claude Gagnon, Officer at the Planning Directorate in the Defence Policy and Planning Division, includes military attaches of the NATO member states (Lithuania, Poland) accredited at the Defense Ministry of Belarus and a representative of the Embassy of Estonia in Belarus, the NATO’s contact embassy.

The visit is held as part of Belarus’ participation in the forces planning and assessment process within the NATO’s Partnership for Peace (PfP) program. The delegation of the Alliance will conduct consultations on the partnership goals in 2014. Partaking in the consultations on Belarus’ behalf will be representatives of the structural subdivisions of the Defense Ministry, the General Stuff and the Armed Forces that are responsible for the implementation of the partnership goals as well as those presenting reports within the PfP.

The program of the visit will include bilateral meetings on the PfP review developed by the NATO International Secretariat and based on the information presented by Belarus. Another issue for discussions is the results of the implementation of the 2012 partnership goals and a draft package of partnership goals in 2014.

 

 

https://twitter.com/juliaioffe

Wow. Now Belarus wants to talk to NATO about a partnership. I guess not everyone is into this "one people" thing. tvrain.ru/articles/belorussija_obsudit_partnerstvo_s_nato-365399/

1:31 PM

 

https://twitter.com/herszenhorn

Senator Mary Landrieu, Dem. of Lousiana, who clashed w/ Russia over adoption ban: “Being sanctioned by President Putin is a badge of honor" 

1:49 PM

 

 

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/putin-putting-the-screws-to-offshores/496542.html

Putin Putting the Screws to Offshores

 

President Vladimir Putin on Thursday demanded that Russian business leaders register their companies onshore, rather than in foreign tax havens.

 

He made the statement at a congress of leading business owners, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, also known by its Russian acronym, RSPP.

 

"Russian companies must be registered in our homeland," he said, according to a transcript of his speech posted on the Kremlin's website. "I am sure that you are also interested in this."

Putin has made a point of pulling companies onshore, in a bid to increase the government's tax take, since he returned to the presidency in May 2012. The call has gained new urgency as the economy cools and budget revenues taper off.

 

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/richard-engel-goes-inside-ukraines-defense-trenches-n57861

Ukraine Paratroopers Camp Near Russia Border

 

DONETSK, Ukraine — Two hundred Ukrainian paratroopers have been encamped for a week in eastern Ukraine amid fears that Russia could launch an military incursion over the border.

 

Trenches were being dug next to the camp Friday as soldiers kept watch in damp weather.

 

 

Oh ****....

http://my.news.yahoo.com/gunmen-storm-besieged-ukrainian-warship-crimea-spokesman-171831888.html

Gunmen storm besieged Ukrainian warship in Crimea: spokesman

 

Ukraine's defence ministry on Thursday said around 20 gunmen were storming a besieged Ukrainian warship, the Ternopil, in the port of Sevastopol in Crimea.

 

"The assault has begun," Vladislav Seleznyov, the defence ministry's spokesman in Crimea, said on his Facebook page.

[ABQCOWBOY]

You think we have the ability to hurt the Russian economy, if Europe doesn't go along with us?

I confess I'm no expert in geopolitical economics. But I find that hard to believe.

 

 

Yeah, I think we do.   As I said before, it would mean reversing field on some major political issues this Administration has steadfastly opposed, up to this point, but yeah.   There are things we could do that would impact Russia's economy in a major way IMO.

[@DCGoldPants]

Translation: "Sanctions will hurt us, and we will oppose them unless someone promises to pay us".Which affects my opinion of the diplomats of the world, not one bit.----------You think we have the ability to hurt the Russian economy, if Europe doesn't go along with us?I confess I'm no expert in geopolitical economics. But I find that hard to believe.

Without Europe, we cleary do not have that ability. Not to mention the last thing you'd want is to do that alone.

[Predicto]

Yeah, I think we do.   As I said before, it would mean reversing field on some major political issues this Administration has steadfastly opposed, up to this point, but yeah.   There are things we could do that would impact Russia's economy in a major way IMO.

 

What are those political issues of which you speak?  This is a genuine question, not a trap/trick/sarcasm post.

[visionary]

http://news.yahoo.com/putins-crimea-takeover-sends-shivers-across-ex-soviet-180049183.html;_ylt=AwrBJR8iNytTxy0ARgPQtDMD

Putin's Crimea takeover sends shivers across ex-Soviet Union

 

It is December 2019 and Russian strongman Vladimir Putin is flying to Oslo to receive the Nobel Peace Prize for his bold moves in standing up to the US and establishing a new world order.

 

"Even in its sleep the world does not forget that Russia can turn the entire planet into radioactive ash, not only the United States," reads a new satirical short story by Belarussian writer Sergei Ostrovtsov.

 

The piece, titled "A Nobel for Putin", was published online as waves of concern spread across countries of the former USSR over Moscow's seizure of Ukraine's peninsula of Crimea.

 

Putin's pledge to protect compatriots beyond his country's borders and his readiness to revisit history has re-opened old wounds in the Baltic nations and even troubled the Kremlin's traditional allies.

 

Many of the post-Soviet countries have sizeable Russian-speaking populations and are struggling with festering territorial disputes and separatist claims of their own.

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-20/obama-s-sanctions-sink-russian-stocks-as-novatek-declines.html

Obama’s Sanctions Sink Russian Stocks as Novatek Declines

 

Russian stocks traded in New York fell the most in a week as President Barack Obama imposed financial sanctions on a wider swath of Russian officials, including billionaires close to President Vladimir Putin.

 

The Bloomberg Russia-U.S. Equity index of the most-traded Russian shares in the U.S. dropped 2.4 percent to 80.88 as of 1:40 p.m. in New York. The measure extended declines after Standard & Poor’s reduced its credit outlook on Russia. OAO Novatek, Russia’s largest private gas producer, dropped 5 percent in London, while CTC Media Inc. fell to the lowest level in more than a year in New York.

 

The Treasury Department’s sanction list affects officials including Gennady Timchenko, who controls Novatek, Yury Kovalchuk, who owns Bank Rossiya and CTC Media as well as Putin’s judo partner Arkady Rotenberg, an investor in road builder OAO Mostotrest. Obama also signed a new executive order authorizing, though not implementing, economic sanctions affecting parts of the Russian economy, which he didn’t specify.

 

“There is a lot of room to fall for the market, given that the conflict is escalating and the U.S. sanctions now target private business, particularly those affiliated with billionaires on the list,” Mansur Mammadov, a money manager at Kazimir Partners in Moscow, which oversees $300 million in emerging-market equities, said by phone. “The sanctions may result in a massive selling unseen in Russia before.”

 

http://www.rusemb.org.uk/press/1781 from Russia's UK embassy....

The same could be said on the EU sanctions against Russian citizens, including parliamentarians and women, which have been introduced on a shaky legal foundation and betray discriminatory and even misogynist attitude of the EU establishment, bent on meting out extrajudicial punishment to people for speaking up their mind..

LOL

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-20/putin-is-investor-in-swiss-oil-trader-gunvor-u-s-treasury-says.html

Putin Is Investor in Oil Trader Gunvor, Treasury Says

 

The U.S. said Russian President Vladimir Putin is an investor in a little-known Swiss oil company backed by a billionaire, a charge that along with new sanctions threatens to bring upheaval to global energy markets.

 

The Treasury, announcing further sanctions today designed to punish Putin and his associates for Russia’s actions in Crimea, targeted Gunvor Group Ltd. co-founder Gennady Timchenko.

 

With 2012 revenue of $93 billion, Gunvor’s one of the world’s largest commodity traders, employing more than 1,600 people and sourcing crude from more than 35 countries. Run from Geneva, Gunvor is co-owned by Timchenko, 51, and fellow billionaire Torbjorn Tornqvist, who founded the company in 2000 to handle Russian crude shipments.

 

The U.S. action could make oil companies, traders and banks reluctant to do business with Gunvor, affecting billions of dollars of physical and derivative contracts. When sanctions target individuals, clients should be cautious doing business with companies they control, said Behnam Dayanim, a Washington, D.C.-based partner at law firm Paul Hastings.

 

From what I've seen so far, Russia experts/analysts have been pretty excited and impressed over the sanctions today.

 

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss

Treasury also discloses Putin's investments in Gunvor. Holy ****: http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-day-31-ukrainian-troops-leaving-crimea/ …

2:47 PM

 

Now every hack on the planet will follow Putin's buried assets. This is asymmetric financial warfare. About ****ing time.

2:50 PM

 

This really is a war the Kremlin cannot win. Russians will now learn the true extent to which they've been robbed by this regime.

2:53 PM

 

Libel risk drops precipitously now for those writing on Rotenbergs, Timchenko, Yakunin. (Take note especially: my editors!) 

2:56 PM

 

Also time to have a cold, hard look at "consultancies" and PR companies in Europe stooging for Gunvor, etc. 

3:00 PM

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/carlbildt FM Sweden

President Obama's announcement of new measures against Russian persons and interests significant. Cost of aggression should now be clear.  

12:21 PM

 

https://twitter.com/PaulSonne

Vitaly Milonov, architect of St. Petersburg's 'gay propaganda' law, appears in photo with "Collection box for Gunvor" pic.twitter.com/c233q2SEXC

2:22 PM

 

[visionary]

http://thinkprogress.org/world/2014/03/20/3417125/logic-obama-russia-sanctions/

The Logic Behind Obama’s Step-by-Step Approach To Russia

 

The Obama administration on Thursday put forward the latest in a series of sanctions intended to serve less as a punishment for Russia’s reassertion of control over Crimea and more of a warning — come nearer and you won’t enjoy what happens next. And it would seem that the White House is beginning to put some weight behind these statements.

 

All in all, the Obama administration strategy with Russia has been one of incremental responses designed to provide a proportional countermeasures while attempting to avoid encouraging further escalation from the Kremlin. That approach was mocked rather solidly on Monday, both from commentators and the actual target of the sanctions. The previous day, Crimea voted in a referendum largely seen around the world as illegitimate to break away from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation. In the executive order signed earlier this week, the White House named a total of 11 individuals — including seven Russians and four Ukrainians — as having their assets in the United States frozen and banning them from entering the country in response to Crimea moving forward with the vote.

Given the response to today’s sanctions, it appears that the message Obama wanted to send appears to be getting through. Credit agency Standard & Poor dropped their outlook on Russia’s economy from stable to negative in the aftermath of the new sanctions’ announcement. And rather than heralding closer ties with their allies, Moscow’s move into Ukraine has spurred enough backlash that Belarus — which has talked of joining a European Union like alliance with Russia — is now talking about forming a partnership with NATO.

 

Journalists with longtime experience in Russia are also taking note. “Wow,” the Guardian’s Shaun Walker said after the sanctions’ announcement. “For everything Obama did wrong on Syria, he’s doing right on Russia,” The New Republic’s Julia Ioffe tweet out. “The list goes on and on and includes ministers, lawmakers, businessmen all with two things in common: their wealth and their proximity to Putin,” Buzzfeed’s Miriam Elder wrote. “The Kremlin must be freaking out.”

 

http://amanpour.blogs.cnn.com/2014/03/20/crimea-is-just-putins-opening-game-says-swedish-foreign-minister-carl-bildt/

Crimea is just Putin’s ‘opening game,’ says Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt

 

Russia’s annexation of Crimea could be just the first move in President Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical chess match with Ukraine, Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour.

 

“I think that Crimea is the opening game,” he said. “It is not that President Putin is primarily interested in Crimea. He is interested in Ukraine.”

 

“If you read carefully what President Putin said in his big speech in the Kremlin the day before yesterday, what he says there about sort of historical claims and those sorts of things, apply not only to Crimea but also to southern parts of Ukraine.”

And in terms of his play for influence in Ukraine, Bildt thinks Putin’s goals know few bounds.

“I’m pretty convinced that his real agenda is not Crimea, but Kiev.”

 

“I think he is prepared to use both economic measures, subversion, destabilizing issues, [and] economic issues – but at the end of the day what we have seen during the last few weeks is that he is also prepared to use military instruments. And that is what is scary and what is deeply worrying.”

 

It may not happen immediately, Bildt said, but Putin is “prepared to play this long.”

 

 

Hmmm

https://twitter.com/courtneymoscow

And Timchenko is out of Gunvor

3:46 PM

 

Sold his stake to Gunvor business partner Torbjorn Törnqvist who is now Gunvor majority shareholder http://gunvorgroup.com/gunvor-ensures-continued-operations/

3:47 PM

 

So Timchenko is out of Gunvor. What is Novatek going to do? Timchenko owns 23% of gas group. France's Total has 16% http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9b3326ca-7e96-11e3-8642-00144feabdc0.html

3:53 PM

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yw0fAFUNYM

Ukraine crisis: pro-Russia crowds seize Ukrainian warships

[ABQCOWBOY]

What are those political issues of which you speak?  This is a genuine question, not a trap/trick/sarcasm post.

 

 

They would be things like reversing filed on decisions that were made to discontinue fortifications on Missle Defense in the Bulkins.   Opening the restrictions on Gas production, allowing fracking, allowing new pipelines, opening restructions on oil production, for the express purpose of selling to the EU, China and other major customers currently buying from Russia, it would be to re-invest in the Military, to re-open NASA and start funding it again, for the express intent of rejuvinating our launch capabilities.   It would be to adopt a lead from the front policy on foreign policy issues and it would require a fiscal policy that invests more money into things that weaken the Russian economy while also forcing them to invest more heavily in their own military, while spending less on social issues here in the U.S.

 

All of those things would create tremendous pressure on Putin and Russia but it would mean a 180 on a great many things this Administration has condememed, over the last decade. 

[Larry]

They would be things like reversing filed on decisions that were made to discontinue fortifications on Missle Defense in the Bulkins.   Opening the restrictions on Gas production, allowing fracking, allowing new pipelines, opening restructions on oil production, for the express purpose of selling to the EU, China and other major customers currently buying from Russia, it would be to re-invest in the Military, to re-open NASA and start funding it again, for the express intent of rejuvinating our launch capabilities.   It would be to adopt a lead from the front policy on foreign policy issues and it would require a fiscal policy that invests more money into things that weaken the Russian economy while also forcing them to invest more heavily in their own military, while spending less on social issues here in the U.S.

 

All of those things would create tremendous pressure on Putin and Russia but it would mean a 180 on a great many things this Administration has condememed, over the last decade. 

 

In short, vote Republican, and Russia won't do bad things. 

 

Did you miss visionary (I think it was him) pointing out the matter of Georgia? 

[Kilmer17]

Our proposed "sanctions" were a worthless threat, and quickly called by Putin. Other than that, I think Obama is playing this right.

It's not our problem. If it escalates, then maybe it becomes our problem. But for now, there's no reason for us to do anything substantial

[Larry]

Well, now, we did have that one article that was practically gushing about how terrific the latest escalations was. 

 

I'm not sure I believe that, myself.  Seems too good to be true.  Makes me wonder if that was just the flip side of "Obama made this happen". 

[Wrong Direction]

In short, vote Republican, and Russia won't do bad things.

Did you miss visionary (I think it was him) pointing out the matter of Georgia?

It's worth noting that his post didn't mention R's or Bush.

Were the specific policies he mentioned potentially useful? If so, isn't it fair game to point out? If not, why not?

[Larry]

It's worth noting that his post didn't mention R's or Bush.

No, it simply mentioned every single Republican policy except repealing Obamacare and banning abortion.

Really? To prevent Russia from invading countries, we must eliminate the social safety net? Come off it.

[Wrong Direction]

No, it simply mentioned every single Republican policy except repealing Obamacare and banning abortion.

Really? To prevent Russia from invading countries, we must eliminate the social safety net? Come off it.

 

You're doing what you accuse others of doing. The first 90% of that post was about things which would affect Russia. He adds one throw away line about social programs. Then you over-state what he said and exploit it as if the rest of the post doesn't apply.

 

Putin's a ****. With him back in power (re-elected in 2008,then aggressive on Georgia), it's not too surprising that people began to focus more on the potential for Russia to attempt to expand. Those ideas are a recognition of the change in Russian posture. Obama didn't change accordingly.

 

It's fair game to debate whether he should have, and also to debate what he could/should do now. I'm not expert in this arena, but why deflect all of those points?

[Larry]

I agree we should be doing more to try to stem this expansion. (I've said so, several times, in this thread).

But I don't get the impression that the reason we aren't, is because we aren't spending enough on defense.

OTOH, it's been pointed out that not only do we not have the ability to export NG to Europe, but they don't have the ability to import it, either.

And I think we've all seen that increasing our production won't mean we're shipping to Europe, any way. If we exported any, it would be to the Americas.

That, while oil PRICES are pretty much global, oil sales tend to be much more local.

When we export, we don't get to say where it goes. (And when we produce more, we don't get to pick who we import less from).

Maybe it's just me, but the impression I get is that the oil companies pick where energy comes from and where it goes. (And probably manipulate it, too).

[Wrong Direction]

I agree we should be doing more to try to stem this expansion. (I've said so, several times, in this thread).

But I don't get the impression that the reason we aren't, is because we aren't spending enough on defense.

OTOH, it's been pointed out that not only do we not have the ability to export NG to Europe, but they don't have the ability to import it, either.

And I think we've all seen that increasing our production won't mean we're shipping to Europe, any way. If we exported any, it would be to the Americas.

That, while oil PRICES are pretty much global, oil sales tend to be much more local.

When we export, we don't get to say where it goes. (And when we produce more, we don't get to pick who we import less from).

Maybe it's just me, but the impression I get is that the oil companies pick where energy comes from and where it goes. (And probably manipulate it, too).

 

Much better response.  

 

I prefer to learn. The first note was just too dismissive of fair points, IMO.

[visionary]

http://news.yahoo.com/whos-russians-hit-us-sanctions-231012496.html;_ylt=AwrBJR5TeCtTrGkAxmXQtDMD

Who's who of Russians hit by new US sanctions

 

US President Barack Obama on Thursday announced sanctions against 20 Russian lawmakers and senior government officials, amid the worst crisis between Moscow and the West in years.

 

The US move freezes assets within American jurisdiction and bars US firms from conducting business with those concerned.

Those targeted are:

 

Political and military officials

- Sergei Ivanov, chief of staff to President Vladimir Putin and one of his closest advisers. He is a former defence minister who -- like Putin -- served in the KGB.

- Sergei Naryshkin, chairman of the Duma lower house of parliament, and a member of Putin's United Russia party.

- Andrei Fursenko, aide to Putin.

- Alexei Gromov, first deputy chief of staff to the president.

- Vladimir Yakunin, chairman of Russia's state-owned railway and a close confidant of Putin.

- Igor Sergun, head of Russia’s military intelligence service.

 

Oligarchs and bankers

- Gennady Timchenko co-founded Gunvor, one of the world’s largest independent oil and energy trading companies. Forbes puts his personal fortune at $15.3 billion.

- Arkady Rotenberg and Boris Rotenberg, billionaire brothers with business interests in banking, construction, shipping, gas and oil whose close ties to the Kremlin have reportedly seen them handed government contracts without a bidding process.

- Yuri Kovalchuk, chairman of Bank Rossiya -- which is also covered by the latest sanctions -- is a member of Putin's inner circle. Washington sees him as "personal banker" to senior Russian officials including the president.

 

http://euromaidanpr.com/2014/03/20/defense-ministry-evacuates-ukrainian-military-from-crimea/

Defense Ministry evacuates Ukrainian military from Crimea

 

Posted on March 20, 2014 by chornajuravka

 

“The Ministry of Defense is evacuating the Ukrainian military from Crimea,” said Minister of the Cabinet of Ministers Ostap Semerak at a briefing, LIGABiznesInform reports.

 

He said that the Ministry of Defense and the National Security Council have already made a decision about the temporary location of the military. “They know where to go and understand … Answering this question, I’d like to not create a wave of excitement,” said Semerak.

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26676745

Ukraine crisis: EU extends sanctions over Crimea

 

The EU has slapped sanctions on another 12 individuals over Russia's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine.

 

European Council President Herman Van Rompuy said any further steps by Russia to destabilise Ukraine would have "far-reaching consequences".

 

It comes hours after President Barack Obama announced further US sanctions against Russia over the Crimea crisis.

 

For its part, the EU is due to sign the economic sections of a trade pact with Ukraine on Friday. When ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych declined to sign it in November, it sparked the current crisis.

 

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/21/ukraine-crisis-usa-house-idUKL2N0MH23520140321

 UPDATE 1-U.S House plans Ukraine bill without IMF reforms -congressional sources

 

The U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee will introduce a bill on Friday that provides aid to Ukraine but will not include reforms of the International Monetary Fund requested by the Obama administration and contained in the Senate version, congressional aides said on Thursday.

 

The bill includes many of the provisions included in a bill passed by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, but has key differences including the absence of the IMF reforms, a congressional aide told Reuters. He requested anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the pending legislation publicly.

 

The House panel's move means that the aid measure, if passed by the full Senate and House, would have to go to a conference committee that would reconcile the two versions before legislation could be passed and sent for President Barack Obama to sign into law.

 

The Obama administration has been pushing Congress for a year to approve a shift of $63 billion from an IMF crisis fund to its general accounts to make good on a commitment from 2010 and maintain U.S. influence at the international lender.

 

 

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/echoes-crimea-keep-ukraines-east-rumbling

Echoes of Crimea keep Ukraine's east rumbling

 

The disheveled men barricading the muddy lane leading into a military facility in this eastern Ukraine town say they are making a stand to defend the region's Russian-speaking majority.

In the nearby city of Donetsk, gangs of pro-Russian activists and Cossacks armed with sticks and bats have been storming one local government office after another, only to leave a short while later.

 

It looks a lot like Crimea.

 

But despite feeling or speaking Russian, many in these eastern regions still adhere strongly to their Ukrainian identity, so things could play out far differently.

 

"Russia has been unable to achieve the rapid breakaway of eastern Ukraine and we are focused on a long-term scenario," said Andrei Purgin, whose banned Donetsk Republic separatist group has been engaged in the seizure of public administration buildings.

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/joshledermanAP

BRUSSELS (AP) - EU slaps asset freezes, travel bans on 12 more people linked to Crimea unrest, annexation

7:32 PM

 

https://twitter.com/AshtonSpox_Maja

European Council agrees 2 expand list of individuals subject 2 visa ban&assets freeze w 12 names. Next EU Russia summit cancelled.  

7:45 PM

 

Curious to see some details and names on the EU sanctions.

US sanctions today have been pretty roundly hailed, though at least one of the oligarchs has sold some of his assets to make things trickier.

[Larry]

Maybe my problem is I'm too idealistic.

I want everybody to be nice. I'm aware that some people aren't. And have to be dealt with.

I WISH that the president had the ability to pick up the phone, and 24 hours later, we'd have sufficient military power to halt the Russian Army.

I assume that I expect too much from our military.

I find myself wishing that our foreign policy was based more on what's RIGHT, than on what's in it for us. (Which usually means what's in it for US corporations, anyway).

I really, really, admire what we did, in Desert Storm. That's the proudest I've been of this country since Apollo 11. I really wish we had the willingness to do that, here.

America is often accused, with contempt, of being the world's policeman. But frankly, I wish that we WERE. (But part of that means maintaining the moral code that policemen are required to adhere to, too. GITMO and rendition and "enhanced interrogation" and Abu Garib sure can wipe out that whole "Good Guy" thing.

Any way. That's a lot of disjointed rambling without a whole lot of practical solutions.

[DCSaints_fan]

I wonder who the one guy in the Russian parliament who voted against annexing Crimea

 

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/20/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_inthenews

 

After Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had presented the treaty and urged lawmakers to accept the region as a part of the Russian Federation, the document was approved on a vote of 443 to 1.

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

I wonder who the one guy in the Russian parliament who voted against annexing Crimea

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/20/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_inthenews

Found a name for you:

Out of 446 deputies voting, 445 voted to approve Russia's taking of Crimea and just one against -- Ilya Ponomarev of the A Just Russia Party.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/mobile/world/russian-lower-house/1042976.html

Edit: looks like he's famous enough to have a wikipedia page.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ilya_Ponomarev

[Wrong Direction]

I thought I'd take a minute to respond to the substance of your response.

 

But I don't get the impression that the reason we aren't, is because we aren't spending enough on defense.

 

I don't think he's talking about spending more just to spend more. I think he's saying that you spend more on things like missile defense in Poland, or a military base in Ukraine, or other tactical military decisions putting us in a better position to be able to prevent Russian expansion. As I read his response, the Russians would likely have to reallocate resources (less social programs in Russia) or just spend more in order to work around this type of intervention. Sounds reasonable to me.

 

 

 

 

OTOH, it's been pointed out that not only do we not have the ability to export NG to Europe, but they don't have the ability to import it, either.

And I think we've all seen that increasing our production won't mean we're shipping to Europe, any way. If we exported any, it would be to the Americas.

That, while oil PRICES are pretty much global, oil sales tend to be much more local.

When we export, we don't get to say where it goes. (And when we produce more, we don't get to pick who we import less from).

Maybe it's just me, but the impression I get is that the oil companies pick where energy comes from and where it goes. (And probably manipulate it, too).

 

 

In other words, our long term strategic thinking about ways to mitigate Russia's power over neighbors based on their exportation of fossil fuels is woefully inadequate. I mean, it's not like NG isn't an exportable commodity. It's that the world hasn't set up the agreements/physical structures to trade, right? Isn't this why nations work out trade agreements? If you think about it, the reasons Obama can't do this are because Obama (and his predecessors) didn't have the foresight to set up the right agreements. 

 

Frankly, I know hindsight is 20/20, and I know the Pacific is rightfully a large part of our strategic focus these days, but our post-Cold War decisions about Russia and its former republics leaves a lot to be desired. I know we wanted a peace dividend and a less nuclear world, but it was naive to assume that the former Russian power structure would just go away without a war. They've returned, assessed their economic position and barriers to expansion, and are now implementing what is almost certainly a very long range plan to regain super power status. It's scary, and American leadership (current and future) needs to open their eyes to this fact and stop making unilateral moves like removal of missile defense. 

 

It should be noted that Obama intervened in Libya almost certainly at the urging of our European friends who didn't want to lose access to oil. I'm not sure whether this was explicitly to mitigate Russia's influence, but it certainly has some of that effect. So, that appears to be a good decision.

[Duckus]

Our proposed "sanctions" were a worthless threat, and quickly called by Putin. Other than that, I think Obama is playing this right.

It's not our problem. If it escalates, then maybe it becomes our problem. But for now, there's no reason for us to do anything substantial

 

Visionary's tweets seem to indicate that the newest round of sanctions are fairly significant and many experts in the region believe will have a larger impact. 

[mcsluggo]

We aren't the only ones with

 

I thought I'd take a minute to respond to the substance of your response.

 

 

I don't think he's talking about spending more just to spend more. I think he's saying that you spend more on things like missile defense in Poland, or a military base in Ukraine, or other tactical military decisions putting us in a better position to be able to prevent Russian expansion. As I read his response, the Russians would likely have to reallocate resources (less social programs in Russia) or just spend more in order to work around this type of intervention. Sounds reasonable to me.

 

 

 

 

In other words, our long term strategic thinking about ways to mitigate Russia's power over neighbors based on their exportation of fossil fuels is woefully inadequate. I mean, it's not like NG isn't an exportable commodity. It's that the world hasn't set up the agreements/physical structures to trade, right? Isn't this why nations work out trade agreements? If you think about it, the reasons Obama can't do this are because Obama (and his predecessors) didn't have the foresight to set up the right agreements. 

 

Frankly, I know hindsight is 20/20, and I know the Pacific is rightfully a large part of our strategic focus these days, but our post-Cold War decisions about Russia and its former republics leaves a lot to be desired. I know we wanted a peace dividend and a less nuclear world, but it was naive to assume that the former Russian power structure would just go away without a war. They've returned, assessed their economic position and barriers to expansion, and are now implementing what is almost certainly a very long range plan to regain super power status. It's scary, and American leadership (current and future) needs to open their eyes to this fact and stop making unilateral moves like removal of missile defense. 

 

It should be noted that Obama intervened in Libya almost certainly at the urging of our European friends who didn't want to lose access to oil. I'm not sure whether this was explicitly to mitigate Russia's influence, but it certainly has some of that effect. So, that appears to be a good decision.

 

we aren't the only ones with oil and NG that can be reached through frakking, right?  we are just the best at getting to it (at this point).  (this is a seriousquestion, i don't know the answer) 

 

  LNG reception terminals and regasification plants (etc) are pretty expensive (and don't get set up very quickly, either)... is it it a good long term investment if it will be followed not too distantly by increased production in THAT market as well?