BBC: Ukraine sanctions imposed amid Kiev clashes

[visionary]

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/68176

Belarus Accepts Russian Jets, But Balks At Crimea Recognition

 

Belarus has been increasing its military cooperation with Russia during the period of the crisis in Ukraine, but analysts argue that is as much as a way to keep Moscow at arm's length as a desire for closer ties.

 

Earlier this month, Russia sent six Su-27 fighter jets to Belarus's Babruisk airfield, which Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said was prompted by the U.S. sending its own fighter jets to neighboring Poland and Lithuania. “We reacted calmly until large-scale exercises began ... in Poland,” Lukashenko said. “There is a clear escalation of the situation near our borders.”

 

Meanwhile, however, Belarus's government has been noticeably reluctant to toe Moscow's line on Russian policy in Ukraine. Its foreign ministry has not endorsed the Crimean annexation, unlike many of its fellow Collective Security Treaty Organization members like Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan.

 

As the Belarus Security Blog argued, Belarus considers its military to be a low priority. "In this case, official Minsk decided to demonstrate its loyalty on defense issues in order to neutralize the effect from refusing to follow Russian policy," a recent post said.

 

Ryhor Astapenia, the editor of Belarusian magazine Idea, argued the same point. "For many outsiders, Lukashenka looks like the Kremlin’s vassal and the Belarusian army like a division of Russia's armed forces. However, the Belarusian authorities have refused to support the actions of Russia in the Crimea and Belarusian troops continue to remain within the country’s borders," he wrote. "It seems that regime wants to testify to its loyalty to the Kremlin after its recent refusal to support Russia in the Crimean conflict. Belarus, it cannot be forgotten, has a strong desire to acquire new military equipment as well."

 

[visionary]

http://www.buzzfeed.com/rosiegray/congressional-aide-says-he-received-death-threats-from-russi

Congressional Aide Says He Received Death Threats From Russian Email Address

 

A top policy advisor to the Helsinki Commission has reported death threats sent to him and to Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny by a Russian email address to the Capitol Police, BuzzFeed has learned.

 

Kyle Parker, the senior policy advisor for Russia at the Helsinki Commission, received threatening emails in Russian from a mail.ru email address saying “sorry I cannot personally execute you Anglo-Saxon geek… now whore, prepare the vaseline,” among other threats.

 

BuzzFeed obtained a copy of one of the emails, including Parker’s communications with Capitol Police about them and his exchange with a Russian Embassy official about the threats. The name of the Russian Embassy official has been redacted. The email cited in this exchange also contains threats against Alexei Navalny, the Russian dissident activist.

Parker then includes an email from an official “who’s accredited to Russia’s embassy in Washington and watches Congress closely,” to whom he had shown the threatening email.

> From: [redacted]<[redacted]@gmail.com>
> Date: March 21, 2014 at 0:24:31 EDT
> To: “Parker, Kyle (Helsinki)”
> Subject: Re: Сгори в аду сука
> You know Kyle, I don’t share this guy view)
> We have to be gentlemen despite anything. Though I would agree, Navalny is done. And one more thing -I really doubt you will see Russia again, at least as long as Vladimir stays in Kremlin.
> Look at what our civil society is doing. You can take credit)
> http://www.newsru.com/russia/20mar2014/obamaneprojdet.html

 

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/23/russian-troops-may-invade-ukraine-white-house?CMP=twt_fd

Russian troops may be massing to invade Ukraine, says White House

 

Russian forces gathering on the border with eastern Ukraine may be poised to invade, the White House warned on Sunday, as the government in Kiev said that the prospect of war with Moscow was continuing to grow after the annexation of Crimea.

 

Speaking after Nato's top commander in Europe voiced alarm about the size and preparedness of the Russian troop buildup, President Barack Obama's deputy national security adviser, Tony Blinken, said President Vladimir Putin may indeed be readying further action.

 

“It's deeply concerning to see the Russian troop buildup on the border,” Blinken told CNN. “It creates the potential for incidents, for instability. It's likely that what they're trying to do is intimidate the Ukrainians. It's possible that they're preparing to move in.”

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/23/world/europe/pro-russian-and-pro-kiev-camps-dig-in-amid-uneasy-calm-in-eastern-ukraine.html?_r=0&gwh=4522AB95C5DD7B27AD8FEB83D2D5F25D&gwt=pay

Pro-Russian and Pro-Kiev Camps Dig In Amid Uneasy Calm in Eastern Ukraine

 

The Kiev revolution and Russia’s aggression have fueled a rift among ordinary Ukrainians and among elites, laying bare the difficulties of establishing political order.

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/21/ukraine-crisis-russia-siluanov-idUSL6N0MI2YT20140321

UPDATE 2-Russia's finance ministry admits sanctions bite

 

Russia's Finance Ministry said on Friday it may be forced to cancel plans to borrow abroad this year, admitting that sanctions imposed by the West are already stinging.

 

The United States imposed sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin's close allies over the annexation of Ukraine's Crimea and warned of more moves that would target major sectors of the Russian economy.

 

The European Union followed with similar measures against powerful individuals, including freezing assets they hold in the EU.

 

Since Putin declared on March 3 that Russia had the right to invade Ukraine, Russian stocks have lost on average 10 percent, or more than $60 billion in market capitalisation, and the central bank has spent $23 billion defending the rouble as foreign investors, spooked by uncertainty about where the crisis will lead, pull their money out of Russian stocks and bonds.

 

"Any sanctions, whatever they are, have a negative impact on bilateral trade, the forecast and the actual economic growth," Siluanov told journalists.

 

"That's why the imposed sanctions will certainly contribute to the overall negative perception of our country's economy and that has already been reflected in ratings agencies' forecasts."

 

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/03/22/moscow-s-long-corrupt-money-trail.html

Moscow’s Long, Corrupt Money Trail

 

One of the individuals on America’s new sanctions list has apparent ties to a group of high-fliers accused by the murdered lawyer Sergei Magnitsky of Russia’s most massive fraud.

 

Vladimir Dzhabarov, the First Deputy Chairman of the International Affairs Committee of Russia’s Federation Council (which is styled as a senate but functions as a claque for the Kremlin), was sanctioned this week by both the European Union and the United States for his role in rubber-stamping Vladimir Putin’s invasion and annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea. Yet Dzhabarov’s name is also familiar to anti-corruption campaigners in Russia—not just for his work for the country’s security services but also for his apparent connections to a Moscow-based investment firm allegedly tied to a series of complex frauds perpetrated years ago and subsequently uncovered by whistleblowing attorney Sergei Magnitsky.

 

Magnitsky, a 36 year-old tax lawyer, was arrested by the very government agents he implicated in the frauds, then murdered in prison in 2008. Four years later, a U.S. law bearing his name was passed by Congress banning and sanctioning Russian officials credibly accused of gross human-rights violations. Dzhabarov was not punished by that law, although his former position with the accused company and his personal connections to sanctioned individuals raised eyebrows in the Russian press.

 

http://www.buzzfeed.com/mikegiglio/radical-factions-square-off-in-east-ukraine

Radical Factions Square Off In East Ukraine

 

The local leader of the Right Sector, a militant nationalist Ukrainian group, had the air of a hunted man as he sat down for an interview at a hotel in this eastern city last week. His eyes darted nervously. Two of his men stood guard in the parking lot. “I’m taking what precautions I can,” he said. “But it might not be enough.”

 

With Russia just 20 miles away, Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city and a bastion of support for Russian President Vladimir Putin, would be a likely first target of a potential Russian incursion, and the man said it was important to show that there would be resistance here.

 

“People in Kharkiv are not nearly as supportive of Russia as people in Crimea,” he said. Protests calling for referendums on secession and for Russian protection have been gripping cities around the region since Russian troops took control of the Crimean peninsula this month. If these pro-Russia movements weren’t confronted, the man said, “the Crimea scenario would likely play out in the east” — meaning that Russia could use the cover of local support to invade.

 

Virulently nationalist, the Right Sector is the group that most unnerves Ukrainians opposed to last month’s revolution, especially here. Its Kharkiv leader declined to use his name, but he’s well known to his enemies in the city. The names, photos and home addresses of several Right Sector members, himself included, had recently been leaked online — something he saw as the latest salvo in a simmering conflict between his group and the pro-Russia forces in the city.

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/MarquardtA

Wife of arrested Belbek cmmdr, Col. Yuli Mamchur, tells ABC she hasn't heard from him since he called y'day saying he was arrested.

5:53 AM

 

Belbek deputy commander tells ABC he's at home today. One journo approached the base but was told by Russia forces to leave.

6:03 AM

 

https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7

Hard to know what they could have done, but the absence of any action at all from Kiev main complaint of stranded Crimea soldiers past 3wks 

7:45 AM

 

https://twitter.com/lukeharding1968

More hardcore crowd at today's Donetsk protest in Lenin square. Lots of young guys from Russian bloc party. Anti-EU, pro-Moscow fervour   

6:48 AM

 

So Donetsk rally drawing to a peaceful close. All convinced fascists in power in Kiev, and that the EU means economic disaster for region 

8:35 AM

 

Ok, so crowd now heading towards regional admin building, shouting "Russia", "No to fascists" and "Donbass in Russia" 

8:43 AM

 

Biggish crowd outside Donetsk admin HQ. Riot cops, Russian flags, and a few confused pigeons 

9:03 AM

 

https://twitter.com/statedeptspox

Russia: where is Cmdr Mamchur? World holding you responsible for his safe return. #Belbek #RussiaIsolated

12:07 PM

 

https://twitter.com/McFaul [most recent ambassador to Russia]

How about Cmdr Mamchur? RT mfa_russia [Russian FM] Russian Ambassador to the EU Vladimir Chizhov: Nobody should fear Russia http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-26705214 

12:12 PM

 

https://twitter.com/mike_giglio

Some Ukrainian flags flying at the pro-Russia demo in Kharkiv today. Many people want federalism and closer ties with Moscow, not invasion

7:20 AM

 

https://twitter.com/MiriamElder

Russian state TV presenter, during discussion on Ukraine, says Jews brought the Holocaust on themselves https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=sxbYEIUmvvM&app=desktop

12:01 PM

[Larry]

Russian troops may be massing to invade Ukraine, says White House

 

 

Admittedly, I seem to be, well, more prone to military than many on this board.  But I'm thinking that if I'm the President, I'd be offering (and offering pretty strongly), to send quite a few troops and other military assets (as in "enough to be a credible, military, defense") to the Ukraine. 

 

Maybe I can't re-attach the patient's already-amputated leg.  But I sure would be offering to stop the bleeding. 

[visionary]

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/03/how-defeat-russia-201432113203787697.html

How to defeat Russia

 

After the annexation of Crimea, what can Ukraine and the West do to contain Russia?

 

http://www.interpretermag.com/ukraine-liveblog-day-34-is-chance-of-war-growing/#1745

1718 GMT: Are things really deescalating, or are we closer to a war than ever?

 

Yesterday, Russian troops captured the Belbek airbase and the Novofedorivka naval base, along with more Ukrainian warships. Today, the BBC reports that Russian troops and Crimean “self-defence” forces captured another Ukrainian warship, the Slavutych.

 

 

The command vessel was seized by Crimean “self-defence” units and Russian troops after a two-hour assault in Sevastopol, a Ukrainian defence spokesman said.

 

The BBC’s Ian Pannell in Belbek says the Ukrainian troops on the peninsula feel beleaguered and abandoned by their commanders.

1745 GMT: Dueling rallies have been held in the port city of Odessa (map). The Russian government propaganda outlet Voice of Russia reports:

 

 

It’s not clear how large the crowds were, but at least several hundred seem to have taken to the streets. Shelton Bumgarner has collected several videos of the march:

 

Thousands of Odessites are protesting today against the coup d’etat in Ukraine and the political repression that followed. They brought the flags of Ukraine, Russia and the Crimea, chanting “Ukraine and Russia stand together”, “Odessa is a Russian city”, “Odessa is against Nazis and oligarchs”, “Odessa, give Banderovites the bum’s rush”, “Referendum.”

 

The demonstrators demanded the release of Anton Davidchenko, the leader of the Coordinating Board of the Odessa region NGOs “People’s Alternative”, arrested by the Ukrainian special services, and to cease harassment of other activists accused of separatism. Davidchenko’s mother spoke at a rally and urged Ukrainian mothers not to let their sons “join the criminal war, that the nationalists and the oligarchs who seized the power in Kiev, are trying to unleash upon the fraternal Slavic peoples in the interests of their Western backers.”

 

 

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin

Now that he is in prison, Col Mamchur is set to become a cult figure. Unless they break him. 

6:14 PM Mar 22

 

The greatest test for Ukraine will come a few weeks after they raise prices for utilities. That's when Putin will strike in the east.  

6:18 PM Mar 22

 

God, this is amazing - pro-EU musical flashmob at Odessa's legendary market. Spirit lifting video of the year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dQ6SAwPD-ss

6:27 AM

 

RIA kindly informs that petition for the return of Alaska to Russia has been signed by 7K people MT “@rianru: http://bit.ly/1poVEwa ”

12:07 PM

 

[visionary]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/03/23/the-mob-and-the-mobs-in-eastern-ukraine.html

The Mafia Ruling Ukraine’s Mobs

 

Organized crime helped Putin grab Crimea, and may open the way for him to take more of Russian-speaking Ukraine.

 

DONETSK, Ukraine—I was talking to some young black-clad pro-Russian agitators at a checkpoint they’d set up on the outskirts of this city in eastern Ukraine when a shiny black Mercedes pulled up a few yards away. Some of the men from the group walked over and stuck their heads into the car. I couldn’t see who the capo was, couldn’t hear what orders he was giving, but the scene was like something from a movie about the mob. Nobody wanted to say who that was in the car. Nobody wanted to repeat what he’d said.

 

Such scenes are increasingly common in this contested part of Ukraine near the Russian frontier. “Bosses are starting to appear on the fringes of the protests, they are middle-aged, older and better dressed than the younger men who are in the vanguard of the protests,” says Diana Berg, a 34-year-old graphic designer. The grassroots agitation in favor of Russia has become less spontaneous and more focused in recent days.

 

Before and since Russia’s move to annex the Crimea, many who favor the pro-European government in Kiev have argued that these “bosses” might be provocateurs from Russia’s FSB intelligence service or Spetsnaz special forces infiltrated into Ukraine to orchestrate pro-Russian sentiment. But Berg, an organizer of the pro-Ukrainian rally last week where pro-Russian thugs stabbed a student to death, says there’s a different and in some ways more frightening explanation: the ominous hand of organized crime.

 

http://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/business-a-lobbying/201431-putins-lobbyists-escape-sanctions

Putin’s lobbyists escape sanctions

 

Lobbyists working for Russian President Vladimir Putin have thus far escaped the dragnet of sanctions imposed by the United States.

 

President Obama has targeted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s inner circle of senior aides and advisers in retaliation for his move to annex Crimea. Those sanctions did not touch Putin’s public relations and lobby machine in Washington, which has raked in millions of dollars in fees for its work representing Russia.

 

But if the White House widens its sanctions, the public relations giant Ketchum and the law and lobby firm Alston & Bird might be forced to seek a special Treasury Department license to lobby for Russia — something other firms have had to do when working for rogue governments.

 

Bart Fisher, who is a managing partner at his own firm, told The Hill that U.S. sanctions against Russia could expand, dragging the country’s paid advocates into the international crisis.

 

“Those big oil and gas companies over there must be concerned that the sanctions will be expanded,” Fisher said. “If I was representing Russia, Gazprom or any of these big state-owned enterprises, I would be very careful that my clients not undertake anything that benefits directly or indirectly any individual who is now a ‘Specially Designated National.’ ”

 

Specially Designated Nationals, or SDNs, are individuals who have their financial assets targeted by the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) for terrorism, drug trafficking or working with sanctioned countries.

 

 

Noticed this in the article I posted earlier:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/23/russian-troops-may-invade-ukraine-white-house

However, Rogers, a Michigan Republican, said “I don't think the rhetoric matches the reality on the ground” and called for increased US action in support of Ukraine to allow those potentially in Putin's sights to “protect and defend themselves”.

 

“We're talking about small arms so they can protect themselves. Maybe medical supplies, radio equipment … defensive-posture weapon systems,” said Rogers.

 

Asked if the White House would consider direct military aid, Blinken said: “All of that is under review.”

 

https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR

In Russian TV's news review, Dmitry Kiselev suggests that the USA is "illegitimate" for the way it gained its independence from Britain. 

1:40 PM

 

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR

US Congressional delegation speaking at the Crisis Press Center in Kyiv pic.twitter.com/cMoLXRbrlF

3:31 PM

 

https://twitter.com/myroslavapetsa

Massive power outage in Crimea. Local media hint the core to the problem lies in continental Ukraine http://bit.ly/1nRg5qe 

3:43 PM

 

[Larry]

The organized crime link doesn't surprise me at all.

Granted, what I know about "the Russian Mob" comes from them being bad guys in TV and movies. But the impression I get is that many of them are former KGB who decided to employ the skills they acquired in the private sector, when they got downsized.

So it's reasonable to assume that there's a lot of back and forth between them, and the Russian government.

And yeah, it's a problem. I think the US might be able to help the Ukraine resist a convoy of Russian tanks driving across the "border", with aircraft support and so forth.

But, stopping vandalism and terrorism from experienced criminals who are already infiltrated into Ukrainian society? That's something that really can't be dealt with, by the military. Only law enforcement can do that. (And, obviously, law enforcement can't do it, or else they wouldn't be where they are.)

[visionary]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/22/us-poland-usa-military-idUSBREA2L0AU20140322

Poland calls for larger U.S. military presence in eastern Europe

 

The U.S. should increase its military presence in Poland and in other NATO members in central and eastern Europe in light of the Ukraine crisis, Polish Defence Minister Tomasz Siemoniak said on Saturday.

 

Siemoniak said Washington was open towards the idea but detailed talks were yet to begin.

U.S. Vice President Joe Biden visited Poland last Tuesday and confirmed plans to deploy elements of a U.S. missile shield in Poland by 2018 and met with the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and President Bronislaw Komorowski.

 

"The U.S. must increase its presence in (central and eastern) Europe, also in Poland," he said RMF FM radio.

 

"We will be talking about the details and I am happy that representatives of the U.S., the U.S. vice president are open towards these talks," he said.

 

During Biden's visit, Siemoniak said, "there was a clear expectation from our side, and also from all NATO allies (in) eastern Europe, that we expect a larger military presence of the U.S. and that this eastern flank of NATO must be strengthened.

 

"Given the crisis in Ukraine, he said, it was "natural" to conclude further talks with the U.S. would also involve the possibility of locating a U.S. base in the region.

 

 

 

[visionary]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26681653

Crimea: Yuri revels in reversal of fortune

 

Last weekend a controversial referendum resulted in a vote in favour of Crimea leaving Ukraine and joining Russia. But it came 23 years too late for a man who was briefly president of Crimea.

 

The offer was both flattering and fleeting.

 

I had just finished my interview with Yuri Meshkov - an avuncular law professor, with neatly brushed white hair and a smart black jacket, worn over a black woollen jumper - when he smiled and grabbed me by the shoulder.

 

"Those were very good questions," he said, his moustache twitching with pleasure. "I really think you should be a diplomat. How about becoming the British consul in Crimea?"

 

A joke, perhaps - (no, definitely) - but it was not completely idle talk.

 

Because Mr Meshkov was the first - and so far only - president of Crimea.

 

He was elected in 1994, by a landslide, on a platform of reuniting the Ukrainian peninsula with Russia.

 

Like an eager suitor, he hopped on a plane to Moscow… only to find his overtures to Boris Yeltsin rebuffed.

 

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/24/opinion/confronting-putins-russia.html?src=twrhp&_r=0&gwh=D7BA5AD122B838B3046E4400B527186F&gwt=pay

Confronting Putin's Russia

 

We did not seek this confrontation. This new era crept up on us, because we did not fully win the Cold War.

 

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/world/europe/article4042643.ece

Obama in crisis talks as invasion fears grow

 

Barack Obama will call on Europe today to hit Russia with harder sanctions amid mounting concern that it is poised to invade east Ukraine.

 

The US President will chair crisis talks with Europe’s leaders in the Netherlands and will tell David Cameron and other allies that tougher measures are needed, even if they risk hurting the City of London and the continent’s economies.

 

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304026304579453331966405354

U.S. Scurries to Shore Up Spying on Russia

 

U.S. military satellites spied Russian troops amassing within striking distance of Crimea last month. But intelligence analysts were surprised because they hadn't intercepted any telltale communications where Russian leaders, military commanders or soldiers discussed plans to invade.

 

America's vaunted global surveillance is a vital tool for U.S. intelligence services, especially as an early-warning system and as a way to corroborate other evidence. In Crimea, though, U.S. intelligence officials are concluding that Russian planners might have gotten a jump on the West by evading U.S. eavesdropping.

 

"Even though there was a warning, we didn't have the information to be able to say exactly what was going to happen," a senior U.S. official says.

 

To close the information gap, U.S. spy agencies and the military are rushing to expand satellite coverage and communications-interception efforts across Russia, Ukraine and the Baltic states. U.S. officials hope the "surge" in assets and analysts will improve tracking of the Russian military and tip off the U.S. to any possible intentions of Russian President Vladimir Putin before he acts on them.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/24/world/americas/obama-and-allies-seek-united-response-on-crimea.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimesworld

Obama and Allies Seek Firm, United Response as Russia Grips Crimea

 

As Russia consolidated its hold on Crimea, raising its flag over seized military bases and detaining ousted Ukrainian commanders on Sunday, President Obama and his international allies prepared to meet here in an effort to develop a strong, united response despite their diverging interests in dealing with the Kremlin.

 

After Russia’s invasion of Crimea and the lightning annexation of the peninsula by President Vladimir V. Putin last week, Mr. Obama’s decision to convene the leaders of several European countries, along with Canada and Japan, brought the nations — once again the Group of 7, without Russia — together for the first time since the crisis in Ukraine upended the stability and security of Europe.

 

Susan E. Rice, Mr. Obama’s national security adviser, acknowledged that the president’s weeklong trip, including a meeting with Pope Francis on Thursday and a stop in Saudi Arabia on Friday, would be overshadowed by Ukraine and the need to press for Western unity. She expressed confidence that the meeting here on Monday would “deepen” coordination.

[visionary]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/24/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA2M09920140324?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=992637

NATO commander warns of Russian threat to separatist Moldova region

 

NATO's top military commander said on Sunday Russia had built up a "very sizeable" force on its border with Ukraine and Moscow may have a region in another ex-Soviet republic, Moldova, in its sights after annexing Crimea.

 

Russia was acting more like an adversary than a partner, NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove said, and the 28-nation alliance should rethink the positioning and readiness of its forces in eastern Europe.

 

Russian troops, using armored vehicles, automatic weapons and stun grenades, seized some of the last military facilities under Ukrainian control on Saturday in Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Russian President Vladimir Putin formally annexed the day before.

 

Breedlove was one of several Western officials and politicians to warn on Sunday that Russia may not stop there in a crisis that has taken East-West relations lurching back towards the Cold War since pro-Western protests in Ukraine ousted Moscow-allied President Viktor Yanukovich last month.

 

"The (Russian) force that is at the Ukrainian border now to the east is very, very sizeable and very, very ready," the NATO commander told an event held by the German Marshall Fund think-tank.

 

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/24/world/europe/russia-steps-up-economic-pressure-on-kiev.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=tw-nytimesworld&_r=0

Russia Steps Up Economic Pressure on Kiev 

 

Russia and Russian state companies have increased the economic pressure on the new pro-Western government in Kiev over the past week, closing the border to most trucks, shutting a Ukrainian factory in Russia and yet again raising the price of natural gas.

 

The actions revive an array of Russian economic foreign policy tools used for years and made possible by Russia’s robust domestic consumer market and the country’s energy exports.

 

About a quarter of all Ukraine’s exports go to Russia, and factories here have benefited from a growing demand in the defense sector and rising consumer purchasing power.

 

Russia’s manipulation of gas prices under various pretexts has for a decade proved to be a particular headache for pro-Western Ukrainian governments.

 

Russia is now asking close to $500 for 1,000 cubic meters of gas, the standard unit for gas trade in Europe, which is a price about a third higher than what Russia’s gas company, Gazprom, charges clients elsewhere. Russia says the increase is justified because it seized control of the Crimean Peninsula, where its Black Sea naval fleet is stationed, ending the need to pay rent for the Sevastopol base. The base rent had been paid in the form of a $100 per 1,000 cubic meter discount on natural gas for Ukraine’s national energy company, Naftogaz.

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/RolandOliphant

Helicopter gunship over Feodosia. Reports of fighting at Marine base here. Crimea pic.twitter.com/11kgTmvg61

11:31 PM

 

Ukrainian Marines who were not on base at the time of the attack say they've been told no one was injured in the raid, which began about 4AM 

12:31 AM

 

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR

SOS! Russian occupiers storming Feodosiya right now. A few helicopters spotted & shots heard.

11:44 PM

 

Russian occupiers used grenades against Ukrainian marines & captured them. Feodosiya, Crimea https://m.facebook.com/KRYM.SOS/posts/10153913097560212

12:35 AM

 

SOS! Captured in Feodosiya marines have their hands tied, some of them have traumas. http://espreso.tv/new/2014/03/24/rosiyski_okupanty_zakhopyly_viyskovu_chastynu_u_feodosiyi_ye_poraneni

12:47 AM

 

 

[raybright]

So the Russians are still behaving as if they have a free pass. They don't seem to be much bothered by the sanctions already in place. On the other hand they seem to believe in the effectiveness of sanctions, given that they are opposing them on the Ukrainians in terms of prices of natural gas, etc.

 

I don't know what Obama and the EU countries involved are planning, but they better be serious about it. And it better hurt for the Russians. Problem being, that China already is their number one import partner (http://www.statista.com/statistics/271355/main-import-partners-for-russia/) and as has been stated already, they will probably just turn to them.

[RichmondRedskin88]

I'd say a complete isolation of Russia is in order but China probably won't participate unless some deal was put in place to maintain their economy while importing to Russia.   You'd think if the world just outright isolates them and then protects its borders from potential invasion Russia will just collapse on itself.

[Going Commando]

Haven't commented in here before, but my question is about the strategic importance of Crimea. Being heavily ethnically Russian isn't a good enough reason to invade and annex it, and thus risk the drastic consequences that could follow.

How vital is it for dominating the Black Sea? What's the strategic significance of dominating the Black Sea for Russia?

When you take this aggressive expansion together with the one in Georgia in 2008, what's the picture of what Russia has gained from these moves? How do they position Russia in the Middle East? What would their goals for the Middle East be?

What is their next move? One thing I'm pretty confident about is they aren't going to stop expanding and destroying the status quo unless the world makes them stop. I know they've been exploring the Arctic for oil and it seems like that's a big part of their plans. What other Northern European countries are potentially in the way of Russian Arctic oil exploration and drilling?

And could this general Russian aggrandizement be seen as a response to American aggrandizement in Iraq?

I'm pretty freaked out by all of this. I know the diplomatic history of Europe passably well and I know Russian expansion almost always comes at the expense of European and Middle Eastern stability. We've had peace for a long time, but a general European war has never been that far away in pretty much any century. This feels way too much like Nazi expansion in the 30's. Remember, Hitler's regime didn't think the invasion of Poland would lead to war with England and France. And when it did, they thought they were ruined.

But vastly superior German mobilization and preparedness almost won the war for them before in the first year. It's certainly not a coincidence that Russia's expanding the exact moment when American preparedness is at it's lowest point in a long time, it's war weariness at it's highest in a long time, it's will for being a global leader at it's lowest in a long time, and a power vacuum within Europe has opened up.

I think we have to stop Russia now, diplomatically and economically isolate them, or this could lead to a horrific war. We've got to make the Europeans accept that if they don't stop Russia now, they're going to be the ground of a general European war sooner or later.

[RichmondRedskin88]

You got to think the Russian people will stand up if the world turns on Russia completely.  If this turned to Russia you talking about a worldwide attack on Russia.  That country would collapse in every phase possible.  It's already been noted the Russian people are against a war.  Right now they sitting at home wondering if their leader will cause their demise.  Honestly we need to start stripping everything from Russia.  Take the World Cup they get in 2018.  Ban them from international events. Olympics, World Cup,etc.  Isolate them.  See how fast that country turns on Putin.

[JMS]

The path the soviet union went down in the early 80s (and lost) was an over-reliance on a single export commodity.  The price of oil went from $110 to $20 (all in real terms, not nominal dollars) during the first several years of the 80s, and the soviet union was unable to absorb those losses, and crumbed.

 

Similarly, the price of oil dropped from around $40 down to around $15 at the end of Yeltsin's term... contributing greatly to HIS ouster.

Actually the Soviet Union didn't participate in the International Trade market much at all. In the mid 1980's trade only made up 4% of the Soviet Unions GDP and about 85% of that went to it's Warsaw Pact neighbors. Trade with the West ( free world ) only made up about 10% of overall trade or 0.4% of the Soviet Unions GDP in 1985. This never really changed much throughout soviet history, and of coarse the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_trade_of_the_Soviet_Union

The Soviet Union was never a major oil exporter. The reality is it was such an economic basket case that when they needed to raise hard currency they were more likely to sell art objects in secret auctions than they were to even attempt foreign trade for commodities like oil or natural gas.

Originally the Soviet Union conducted secret auctions

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_sale_of_Hermitage_paintings

In more modern times they used Armand Hammer as a secret broker who sold their art objects and returned the proceeds to the Soviet Union.

http://www.nytimes.com/1996/10/14/books/armand-hammer-s-maze-of-skulduggery.html

This is important because I think this history it's what is fueling Putin's activities. You see in the old days, the Soviet Union followed a policy of being self sufficient to insulate itself from exactly the kind of response possible over Crimea. Crippling economic body shots. In the old days the Soviet Union could Invade Hungary, Czechoslovakia, or Afghanistan; and there was very little we could do economically. Short of Boycotting an Olympics (1980) the west was powerless to influence the Soviet economy. The Soviet Union's self sufficiency policy however was incredible inefficient and it along with the arms race invigorated by the west is what ultimately lead to the collapse of communism. ( Having an entirely insular economy, is backwards thinking. It stops disruptions if you are expecting a lot of sanctions, but you still pay a steep price for such a policy. And the Soviet Union did. )

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in the Early 1990's it was the West which helped transformed the Russian economy from an Industrial self sufficient although entirely bankrupt an inefficient economy into a modern commodity based economy with the infrastructure to support massive trade with the West. Western brains thought up this relationship, Western corporations and banks paid to build the infrastructure which supported this economy... And that economy is what is responsible for the economic metamorphosis which Russia has enjoyed over the last decade.

Putin seems to be thinking he's Leonid Brezhnev. He's not. Gone are the days when the Soviet Union could laugh at the west's threats of sanctions. Modern Russia is entirely dependent upon the west for foreign investment to develop her vast natural resources, and for the markets to sell those resources. Today Russia's exports are about 30% of GDP and her imports are about 25% of GDP. ( US exports for comparison are 13% and our imports are 16% of GDP ) Can you imagine a third of the Russian economy disappearing overnight because of sanctions? That's like the great depression on a light switch and the west has it's fingers on that switch..

Worse for Russia if it could be worse, foreign capital represents the core capital enabling most major infrastructure projects in Russia for the last two decades.

Don't get me wrong, Russia's got money. She's got quite a few Billionaires. Problem is the one fundamental truth of Russian Billionaires is they don't invest their money in Russia. They keep their money in the west, which makes Russia so dependent on Western investment for all her major infrastructural improvements.

Anyway the question facing the west now is not whether we could hurt the Russian Economy. We certainly could. The question is do we risk pushing Russia more into her traditional role of being an insular backwards power on the European boarders. A role her xenophobic leadership and history are much more familiar with. The best outcome for the west is not a return to that. The best outcome for the west and frankly for Russia is to have Russia continued full participation economically with the West. Given that our challenge is what action now makes Russia feel the price for Crimea but doesn't further fuel her Nationalistic shoot yourself in the foot tendencies which would drive Russia back into the closet.

I mean come on... Russia missed the entire Renaissance and Reformation because of her insular tendencies back in in the days of the Czar. That's not good for anybody.

[JMS]

Yes, we would, BECAUSE they are NATO members.   Ukraine is not.

If Germany won't lift a pen to defend 40 million Ukrainians from Russian aggression because of economic interests, what makes you so confident she will lift the sword to defend 2 million Latvians? It's not like Russia even needs to invade these small NATO countries. Just saber rattling post Ukraine would be enough to destabilize them.. and that's what's happening now, people are scared.

 

No one yet has come close to convincing me that military ****-wagging would have made any difference at all in this situation, any more than it did with Georgia in 2008.  

 

Russia must be punished, but pretending that we are going to intervene militarily does nothing but make some of us feel tough, and fuel the propaganda that Putin is feeding to his people.

I'm not talking about that. Nobody expected Russia to invade Georgia. Just like nobody really expected Russia to invade Crimea. It's like predicting an otherwise rational person would pull out a pistol and shoot themselves in the foot. It's not something you live in fear over or something you threaten them against. One would think their own interests would dissuade them, and if not; your words would represent a poor secondary motivation.

What we are discussing is not using threats to dissuade Russia from these previous actions which we did not predict.Or frankly feel any great need to defend against. ( I mean really why should we? ) What we are discussing now is whether it's prudent to unilaterally remove options from a table whether you would use them or not. Now that we know Putin somehow missed the last two decades of Russian history and seems pretty clueless as to what we perceive his best interests are. Now, does it makes sense to do Putin's thinking for him by publicly announcing militarily he has a free hand with how he disposes of Ukraine as he's massing tens of thousands of troops on the boarders... I don't think so.

[visionary]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/24/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA2N10620140324?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

Obama seeks allied, China support as Ukraine exits Crimea

 

U.S. President Barack Obama sought support from European allies and China on Monday to isolate Russia over its seizure of Crimea, and Ukraine told its remaining troops to leave the region after Russian forces overran one of Kiev's last bases there.

 

Obama, who has imposed tougher sanctions on Moscow than European leaders over its takeover of the Black Sea peninsula, will seek backing for his firm line at a meeting with other leaders of the G7 - a group of industrialized nations that excludes Russia, which joined in 1998 to form the G8.

 

Since the emergency one-hour G7 meeting on the sidelines of a nuclear security summit in The Hague was announced last week, President Vladimir Putin has signed laws completing Russia's annexation of the region.

 

White House officials accompanying Obama expressed concern on Monday at what they said was a Russian troop buildup near Ukraine and warned that any further military intervention would trigger wider sanctions than the measures taken so far.

He also discussed the crisis at a private meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, whose government has voiced support for Ukraine's territorial integrity but refrained from criticizing Russia. The West wants Beijing's diplomatic support in an effort to restrain Putin.

"Our interest is not in seeing the situation escalate and devolve into hot conflict," White House national security adviser Susan Rice told reporters. "Our interest is in a diplomatic resolution, de-escalation, and obviously economic support for Ukraine, and to the extent that it continues to be necessary, further costs imposed on Russia for its actions."

 

In The Hague, leaders of the G7 - the United States, Japan, Canada, Germany, France, Britain and Italy - will discuss how to exert further pressure, and at what potential cost.

 

"The main idea for the G7 meeting is to show the isolation of Putin. We won't be adopting any sanctions but there might be discussion on what could be the next step," a G7 official said.

 

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/03/president-obama-europe-trip-ukraine-russia-104938.html

White House: G-7 nations to discuss suspending Russia
 

President Barack Obama and the leaders of other G-7 nations will use an unusual gathering tonight to discuss whether to curtail Russia’s involvement in the group, a senior White House official said Monday.

 

Deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes said the decision was up to the leaders, but he hinted strongly that Obama favored moving in that direction.

 

“Clearly we believe there is no reason for the G-7 countries to engage with Russia going forward based on its behavior,” White House deputy national security adviser Ben Rhodes said.

 

He told reporters that the expectations for the gathering — the traditional G-8 economic group minus Russia — were to foreshadow the economic sanctions that Russia could face; commit to supporting the Ukrainian people; reassure European allies nervous about events in Ukraine; and continue to isolate Russia politically.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/russia-bans-entry-to-13-canadians-in-retaliation-for-ottawas-sanctions/article17635115/

Russia imposes sanctions on 13 Canadians, including MPs

 

The Russian government has banned entry to 13 Canadian senior civil servants and politicians in retaliation for punitive actions that Ottawa levied on Moscow elite over the annexation of Crimea and the destabilization of Ukraine.

 

The largely symbolic sanctions, which do not target Prime Minister Stephen Harper or Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird, come hours before the Group of Seven is expected to suspend Russia from the G8 and cancel a planned summit in Sochi. This is anticipated later Monday but not yet confirmed by Ottawa.

 

According to a statement circulated by the Russian Foreign Ministry, the list of targeted Canadians includes a handful of senior servants, a couple of senior ranking Conservatives, three Tory backbenchers and outspoken opposition critics.

Those hit with the ban on entry to Russia include:

• the country’s top civil servant, Privy Council Clerk Wayne Wouters;
• House of Commons Speaker Andrew Scheer;
• Government House Leader Peter Van Loan;
• Christine Hogan, a senior foreign affairs adviser;
• deputy secretary to the cabinet Jean-Francois Tremblay;
• Liberal MPs Chrystia Freeland and Irwin Cotler;
• Senator Raynell Andreychuk;
• NDP MP Paul Dewar;
• Conservative MPs Dean Allison, Ted Opitz and James Bezan;
• Paul Grod, head of the Ukrainian Canadian Congress.

 

http://www.interpretermag.com/kazan-tatars-see-no-future-for-themselves-in-putins-russia/

Kazan Tatars See No Future for Themselves in Putin’s Russia

 

Vladimir Putin’s transformation of Russia into a totalitarian, militarist and chauvinist state mean that the Kazan Tatars can see no future for themselves in that country as long as he is its president and is carrying out such policies, according to a declaration of the Millli Mejlis of the Kazan Tatar nation.

 

Because of Putin’s actions in Crimea which reflect his double standards on self-determination and his oppression of the non-Russian and non-Orthodox population of the Russian Federation, the parallel national parliament of that republic says that Tatarstan must leave Russia “in order to preserve our nation, language and religion.”

 

The Kazan Tatars are the second largest nationality in the Russian Federation with some six million people, and they are situated in the oil and gas rich Middle Volga through which all of Moscow’s transportation and communication links pass between European Russia and Siberia and the Far East. Their disaffection after Crimea thus constitutes a major problem for Moscow.

 

The Milli Mejlis, in a declaration distributed by email yesterday, declared that Putin’s actions in Crimea have created “a new situation” in “the international geopolitical space” and that development in turn has forced the Kazan Tatars to recall the March 1992 referendum in their homeland. (For the meeting where this appeal was prepared, see here.

 

In that vote, the declaration says, 61.4 percent of the population voted for the independence of Tatarstan. International observers did not find any violations in the way the voting was carried out and said that it was in full correspondence with “all international norms” and fully legitimate.

 

But “Russia did not recognize the results of this referendum,” the declaration, which is signed by Fausziya Bayramova, the president of the Milli Mejis of the Tatar People, notes. Even before the referendum took place, Moscow made all kinds of threats and put pressure on Kazan. The republic’s leadership conceded, but the people voted as they did.

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/AFP

BREAKING Russian troops seize control of Ukraine naval base in Crimean city of Feodosia: Ukrainian official

2:01 AM

 

https://twitter.com/BBCiPannell

Can confirm a convoy of Ukrainian marines heading to the border from Feodosiya. Emotional farewell to wives and families.

10:39 AM

Wonder if the families might be used as hostages later....

 

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR

BREAKING Storming of ukrainian mil/ ship "Oshansky" has started in Donuzlav lake, Crimea @ukrpravda_news pic.twitter.com/e8ixdBT2Hv

11:29 AM

 

Ukrainian marines in Feodosiya say as soon as they leave Crimea they'll go storm the defence ministry to show what it feels like

12:21 PM

 

https://twitter.com/RolandOliphant

75 to 80 marines were captured and taken to a Russian navy base here. About half of them have been released. 

2:38 AM

 

We here the Ukrainian commander, Lt Col Dmitry Delatitsky, and deputy were taken away separately on a helicopter. Whereabouts unknown. 

2:52 AM

 

Pretty battered marine major released - bashed face, speckles of blood on his fatigues. "Nah, that's not a beating. Just part of the job."

5:53 AM

Ukrainian govt finally orders withdrawal from Crimea. Troops and families already packing their bags.   

6:15 AM

 

It's getting dark, and we're approaching the Chongar border checkpoint with a Ukrainian marine convoy out of Crimea.

12:33 PM

 

Waved through first Russian checkpoint by the usual masked gun men and halted for unclear reason. Marines take a cig break.

1:13 PM

 

 

 

So far Russia has responded to the sanctions by taking a bunch of bases and increasing the violence and intimidation, plus troop buildup.  I hope we have more sanctions ready other than just suspending them from the G8 which has already been assumed for a while now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[JMS]

You got to think the Russian people will stand up if the world turns on Russia completely.  If this turned to Russia you talking about a worldwide attack on Russia.  That country would collapse in every phase possible.  It's already been noted the Russian people are against a war.  Right now they sitting at home wondering if their leader will cause their demise.  Honestly we need to start stripping everything from Russia.  Take the World Cup they get in 2018.  Ban them from international events. Olympics, World Cup,etc.  Isolate them.  See how fast that country turns on Putin.

The Russian economy hasn't really snapped back since the 2008 economic down turn. Gross domestic product advanced 1.3 percent in 2013, the least since their 2009 recession. This compared with the anemic 3.4 percent growth in GDP in 2012.

That's actually one perceived motivation for this action in Crimea. Because the economy sucks and everybody know's Putin's government is corrupt; one way to defend against civil unrest is to appeal to Russian Nationalism. And Russia is ripe for this...

Russia has gone from a super power who could dictate to the world, destabilize regions, and generally make the west quake to a new world order where she just recently overtook Italy for the 8th largest economy in the World. She's behind UK, France, and even Brazil with respect to economic muscle. That's a pretty hard pill to swallow if you are a Russian. Then you have the EU come skulking around your former satellite states, a lot of Russians like Putin's move to take a hard stand against the EU, and remember from their perspective Putin didn't invade, he's just protecting the ethnic Russians in Crimea who spontaneously rebelled against fascist Ukrainians... That's the only message most Russians are hearing.

I actually think Crimea is more helping Putin with his domestic problems right now than hurting him.

[Larry]

Wondering how much we can really isolate them, though, when they've got what's probably the world's longest border, with China on the other side of it. 

 

 

(And, frankly, I don't see China really looking for a trade war with Russia.  In fact, I could well see China and Russia mutually deciding that, economically, both of their biggest economic enemies is the US, and that ganging up makes both of them more resistant to the US.) 

 

(I could see such an alliance being a lot like the one between Hitler and Stalin:  One where everybody knows that both of them are planning to break the alliance.  But I could also see both of them deciding that "let's wait till we're both bigger than the US, then maybe we'll fight each other to see who's number two."  In short, it's an alliance that's guaranteed to turn into conflict, but maybe not till 50 years down the road.) 

[visionary]

http://www.naharnet.com/stories/en/123708

'Sorry Brother': Ukraine Marines Betrayed by Russian Raid

 

Just a year ago, Ruslan, a marine in Ukraine's top battalion stationed in the Crimean port of Feodosiya, helped Russian soldiers paint their armored personnel carrier for a military parade.

 

On Monday, he spotted the same vehicle being used to block the gate to his base as Russians showered its barracks with tear gas and stun grenades in a pre-dawn raid that took the unarmed Ukrainians by complete surprise.

 

"We thought of them as our own, as our brothers," said Ruslan, who declined to give his last name.

"We trusted them... and they trusted us," he told Agence France Presse at a Feodosiya cafe after spending hours in Russian custody.

 

"And now they received these orders (to attack us), and what they did was completely inhuman. It's not the Christian way."

 

Ruslan, who is in his late 20s, said he was torn by Moscow's seizure and annexation of Crimea as his parents live in Ukraine and his wife and children were born on the peninsula.

 

The Feodosiya base, where he served for six years, is one of the last Ukrainian military bases in Crimea to fall under Russian control.

 

But it was not the tear gas that stung these marines the most -- it was the Russians who broke a promise to allow them to leave the base peacefully on Monday in exchange for their arms.

 

"There was an agreement that we hand over the weapons... and at noon today we were to lower the flag and drive out on our trucks to go to the mainland. But that's not what happened," Ruslan said.

 

The unit locked up its armory and handed it over -- but then was woken up by a raid at 4:00 am.

"They fired bullets at us while we were completely unarmed," said Yevgeniy, another marine.

"My friend had his nose broken with the butt of a rifle for nothing, he put up no resistance.

"They took our military IDs, phones, money -- everything they could lay their hands on."

 

The marines said that if they had known this was going to happen, they would never have surrendered their weapons.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/ajamlive

Russian diplomatic source cited by RIA: Lavrov to meet Ukraine counterpart Deshchytsya on sidelines of nuclear summit in The Hague

12:42 PM

 

Meeting between Russia's Lavrov, Ukrainian counterpart Deshchytsya happening now-PhilipIttner http://trib.al/QxvjjvT  pic.twitter.com/CdNwsm8kaV

1:19 PM

 

 

[JMS]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/24/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA2N10620140324?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

 

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/03/president-obama-europe-trip-ukraine-russia-104938.html

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/russia-bans-entry-to-13-canadians-in-retaliation-for-ottawas-sanctions/article17635115/

 

http://www.interpretermag.com/kazan-tatars-see-no-future-for-themselves-in-putins-russia/

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/AFP

 

https://twitter.com/BBCiPannell

Wonder if the families might be used as hostages later....

 

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR

 

https://twitter.com/RolandOliphant

 

 

 

So far Russia has responded to the sanctions by taking a bunch of bases and increasing the violence and intimidation, plus troop buildup.  I hope we have more sanctions ready other than just suspending them from the G8 which has already been assumed for a while now.

If you favor stronger sanctions, and I think most of us here do... I think we should be encouraged by every aggressive or annoying thing Russia does. All of it fuels the discussions going on with the EU to get them to impose harsher economic punishment.. We really haven't targeted Russia at all yet. Our sanctions have targeted Putin's inner circle. We've confiscated the assets of the guys Putin relies on to remain in power. We've done this while basically leaving Putin's own assets in tact.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

A Chinese-Russian team is something I've always wondered about. They could potentially form a pretty unpredictable and scary alliance that the world would need to keep an eye on. 

[JMS]

Wondering how much we can really isolate them, though, when they've got what's probably the world's longest border, with China on the other side of it. 

 

(And, frankly, I don't see China really looking for a trade war with Russia.  In fact, I could well see China and Russia mutually deciding that, economically, both of their biggest economic enemies is the US, and that ganging up makes both of them more resistant to the US.) 

 

(I could see such an alliance being a lot like the one between Hitler and Stalin:  One where everybody knows that both of them are planning to break the alliance.  But I could also see both of them deciding that "let's wait till we're both bigger than the US, then maybe we'll fight each other to see who's number two."  In short, it's an alliance that's guaranteed to turn into conflict, but maybe not till 50 years down the road.)

You are never going to completely isolate a country. Even the tightest sanctions leak. But cutting Russia off from 6 of the seven largest economies in the world would definitely put a hurting on Russia economically.. China could not really fill all of that gap. The infrastructure which enables Russia's exports now would not be all that helpful to China. The pipes flow into Europe, not into China.

Also I think the new formula for sanctions doesn't really target countries like China. Modern sanctions, like we've used to devastating effect on Iran target companies. China doesn't support our sanctions on Iran, but their companies do, because if their companies get caught breaking the Iranian sanctions then they can't do business in the US or Europe where there is a lot more business to be done...

Anyway nobody is talking about using Iranian type curl up and die sanctions against Russia. What we are talking about is heating up the water, and continue to heat up the water.. slowly, gradually, until Russia feels the heat.. To combat irrational reflexive nationalism with slow predictable methodic reflection of the inevitability of the economic reality Russia lives in today.

[Larry]

A Chinese-Russian team is something I've always wondered about. They could potentially form a pretty unpredictable and scary alliance that the world would need to keep an eye on. 

 

Well, they've always been military enemies. 

 

But I could certainly see them both deciding that they're economic allies. 

 

And the world is mutating into one where economies are the new armies. 

[JMS]

A Chinese-Russian team is something I've always wondered about. They could potentially form a pretty unpredictable and scary alliance that the world would need to keep an eye on.

Wouldn't work.

Russia needs capital and a market for her oil. China could provide these. Problem is China is probable Russia's biggest security threat in the 21st century so if you are Russia making your economy entirely dependent upon China is not something you are going to find all that attractive. Russia's is more naturally an ally of the west.

China needs energy imports.. Russia could provide these if China invests hundreds of billions, even trillions to develop Russia's reserves and export facilities. You have to ask yourself why is that to China's advantage? If Russia were exporting globally it would be a good advantage for China, but if she's only exporting to China and given Russia's proclivity to charge caged markets pretty harsh monopoly fees ( like Ukraine )... I don't think it makes sense for China to be overly dependent upon Russia either.

The biggest problem with such an arrangement though is China needs a market for her goods. China's entire economy is based upon exports. You aren't going to replace 310 million Americans or 700 million Europeans with 143 million Russians. Not going to happen... Not even on the drawing board.

No the time for insular economies are gone. They can exist only if you are willing to allow all your people to live in poverty like North Korea or Iran. Neither the Russian people nor the Chinese people would tolerate that now that they've tasted better. Today when economic growth in China dips be low 8% the economic protests China faces are existentially threatening to the communist government. I think Putin feels the same kinds of pressures when his economy slows.

[Going Commando]

JMS, Russia's actions aren't irrational from their perspective. They're responding to what they view as existential threats coming as a result of a drastic change in the balance of power in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.

You have to understand that Putin's regime sees geopolitics and global economics as a zero sum game (and I agree that it ultimately is), and they view the US and EU has rivals with competing interests. And we probably are.

Now Consider what's happened around them, since just 2001.

In the ME and North Africa:

- 2001, the United States invades Afghanistan and eventually establishes a friendly democratic regime.

- 2003, the United States invades Iraq and eventually establishes a friendly democratic regime.

- 2011, the United States supports the fall of the Pro-Russian regime in Libya, who then establishes a friendly democratic regime.

- 2013, the United States threatens to use force to overthrow the Pro-Russian Assad regime in Syria, with the hope of helping to establish a friendly democratic regime.

- 2013, the United States begins a diplomatic thaw with Iran, embracing the chance to develop friendly relations with a liberalizing regime--threatening to erode Russia's influence here as well over time.

In Eastern Europe:

- 2004, NATO expands to Russia's doorstep, adding Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Romania, and Bulgaria.

- 2014, revolution in Ukraine sees an anti-Russia, pro-EU and US regime take power in Kiev.

The balance of power has completely changed in a very, very short amount of time. Really just 13 years or so. Places that have been in Russia's orbit for centuries have broken away. Russia's own stability has been under serious threat for a long time. Their population growth rate only just started to exceed their death rate in 2009. You demonstrate it yourself, the U.S. and E.U. could partner with China to form sanctions that could destroy Russia's economy and send them into a horrible depression that would probably collapse their government.

So they're taking the few steps they believe they can to insulate themselves with more strategic power.

The biggest obstacle is figuring out a way of reconciling our profound geopolitical differences to bring Russia back into the fold. As you say, that country has never really westernized and they've almost always been a very authoritarian state. I agree that we don't really want them to be an insular pariah state, the North Korea of the fully developed world. That won't make them less dangerous. It's also contrary to the world America wants to build--a universally democratic, stable, propserous, and cooperative world, with free markets everywhere.