@DCGoldPants Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 It's probably worth noting that a lot of this speculation about Trump and Hillary is a tad premature. We still have 47 states to go. For example, Cruz has a good chance in Texas, and Bernie has a good chance in California. It's also worth noting that Hillary was still the front runner ahead of Obama at this point in 2008. Cruz should win Texas. I am willing to bet Clinton has a double digit polling lead in Cali right now. granted, that could change. Guess we'll see what happens Super Tuesday. Only a few weeks away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Suspect Super Tuesday might be a big challenge for Bernie, too. 13 states on the same day favors the candidate who's spent years building an organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s0crates Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Cruz should win Texas. I am willing to bet Clinton has a double digit polling lead in Cali right now. granted, that could change. Guess we'll see what happens Super Tuesday. Only a few weeks away. The last poll in Cali was around Christmas and had Hillary +11. I think we can expect Hillary's margins to narrow there and elsewhere. For comparisons sake, the Nevada poll at that time had Hillary +23 (actual result Hillary +5), the Iowa poll at that time had Hillary +18 (actual result Hillary +0.5), and the NH poll at that time had Hillary +3 (actual result Bernie +22). Her polling leads are actually shrinking faster than they did in 2008, and that race wasn't decided until June. And keep in mind how the delegates are apportioned for the Dems, Bernie can stay in the race a long time as long as these contests stay close. All I'm saying is that, despite all the trumpeting from Hillary's camp, the truth is that the Dem race is far from over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@DCGoldPants Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 The last poll in Cali was around Christmas and had Hillary +11. I think we can expect Hillary's margins to narrow there and elsewhere. For comparisons sake, the Nevada poll at that time had Hillary +23 (actual result Hillary +5), the Iowa poll at that time had Hillary +18 (actual result Hillary +0.5), and the NH poll at that time had Hillary +3 (actual result Bernie +22). Her polling leads are actually shrinking faster than they did in 2008, and that race wasn't decided until June. And keep in mind how the delegates are apportioned for the Dems, Bernie can stay in the race a long time as long as these contests stay close. All I'm saying is that, despite all the trumpeting from Hillary's camp, the truth is that the Dem race is far from over. I feel for you, man. You've been super frustrated the past few weeks here with how 2/3 of those primary/caucuses went down. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_democratic_presidential_primary-5321.html Low double digits in the time frame you said. LA Times one is way old. Then again, the Cali primary isn't until June. Who knows what will be the situation then. I'm going to guess both R and D primaries are all but decided then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chipwhich Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I don't see how Bernie will hang in there after he loses over the next 3 weeks. The momentum he needed to take on Hillary will all be gone. Those millennials aren't showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s0crates Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Suspect Super Tuesday might be a big challenge for Bernie, too. 13 states on the same day favors the candidate who's spent years building an organization. As of now, Bernie looks like the favorite in Massachusetts and Vermont, Oklahoma looks like a toss up, and Hillary leads the other 10. So it's still her race to lose. Nobody would deny she is the front runner. Of course we should keep in mind that she was the front runner at this time in 2008 too. I'm just saying it is not over yet. Bernie has been surging for months, and Hillary's leads have been steadily dwindling. If that trend continues, then you can expect this to be a close race that continues beyond March 1st. Bernie doesn't need to win Super Tuesday to stay in the race, he just has to keep it competitive, and I think it's a safe bet that he will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I don't see how Bernie will hang in there after he loses over the next 3 weeks. The momentum he needed to take on Hillary will all be gone. Those millennials aren't showing up. He's significantly outperformed expectations in each of the contests so far. Not sure how you can make this claim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chipwhich Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 He's significantly outperformed expectations in each of the contests so far. Not sure how you can make this claim. Outperforming while losing doesn't keep you in the race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoodBits Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Outperforming while losing doesn't keep you in the race. In a proportional delegate allocation system, sure it does. He's essentially tied at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@DCGoldPants Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 He's significantly outperformed expectations in each of the contests so far. Not sure how you can make this claim. That's the same argument for Rubio, expect he takes victory laps while finishing 2nd or 3rd. At some point you need to win and keep winning. Mark the time and date. I agree with Chipwich right now. In a proportional delegate allocation system, sure it does. He's essentially tied at this point. http://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2016-primary-delegate-count/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Wiggles Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 So Bernie's up four delegates at this point? But trails by 400+ because of Super Delegates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@DCGoldPants Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 So Bernie's up four delegates at this point? But trails by 400+ because of Super Delegates? Delegates/Super Delegates are beyond stupid to me. But it's the system the Dems use (the Super part). What is so hard about just adding up total votes for a candidate in a primary season and having the overall winning...ugh...nevermind. It's only 2016. Counting Technology is a few hundred years away. "Ladies, please. All our founding fathers, astronauts, & World Series heroes have been either drunk, or on cocaine." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s0crates Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 In a proportional delegate allocation system, sure it does. He's essentially tied at this point. Exactly. Right now Bernie and Hillary are tied at 51 delegates each. If we imagine she wins everything between now and March 2nd 55% to 45% (which I doubt, but for the sake of argument), then that would put the delegate count at roughly 750-650, which means they still have to keep going to see who reaches the needed 2,300 and change first. You'd think Hillary's people would remember the way this worked in 2008. So Bernie's up four delegates at this point? But trails by 400+ because of Super Delegates? You can't really count superdelegates before the convention, but Hillary's camp is pretending they can, all the better to advance their false narrative that Bernie has no chance. Mark my words, we won't know who the Dem nominee is before May. And for the record, I admit it's still Hillary's race to lose, all I'm saying is that it is still a race she has to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chipwhich Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Mark my words, we won't know who the Dem nominee is before May. Hillary will get 10 states on Super Tuesday. The momentum will be all but gone. I know you are hopeful but its over. He needed to win this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s0crates Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Hillary will get 10 states on Super Tuesday. The momentum will be all but gone. I know you are hopeful but its over. He needed to win this weekend. It would have been nice if he won, but he didn't need to win. He did need it to be close, and it was. Two points you seem to be missing: 1. The delegates are apportioned. Even if Hillary hangs on to the lead in those 10 states, Bernie will get enough delegates to stay in it. As long as he continues to keep it close, Bernie gives himself a fighting chance. 2. There are a lot more than 16 states in the country. Can we wait and see how Super Tuesday goes? Can we let the other 34 states vote before we anoint Hillary? Doesn't anybody remember 2008? Hillary was the front runner at this time then too, and Obama lost Nevada to her by a wider margin than Bernie. And yes I am hopeful. I'm holding out hope this race is 2008 all over again for Hillary. Is it a long shot? Sure. But it is also well within the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedskinsFan44 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Romney is endorsing Rubio. It was clear the establishment had decided when Haley endorsed but this makes it explicit. Honestly if I was Rubio I'm not sure I want the Romney endorsement in this cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Apparently Trump is now questioning Rubio's eligibility as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Romney is endorsing Rubio. It was clear the establishment had decided when Haley endorsed but this makes it explicit. Honestly if I was Rubio I'm not sure I want the Romney endorsement in this cycle. Just a rumor so far Rubio's turn in the Trump barrels begins, he is also questioning Rubio's eligibility now Lather,Rinse, Repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Outperforming while losing doesn't keep you in the race. Right now, except for the super delegates, they're tied, 51-51. And if he can keep getting 49% while "losing", that could continue for some time. (Now, I'm not sure he can keep it up, though). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chipwhich Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Doesn't anybody remember 2008? Hillary was the front runner at this time then too, and Obama lost Nevada to her by a wider margin than Bernie, and Bernie is closing the gap in the polls faster than Obama did. And yes I am hopeful. I'm holding out hope this race is 2008 all over again for Hillary. Is it a long shot? Sure. But it is also well within the realm of possibility. To compare this election to 2008, Sanders would actually have to beat Hillary. Perhaps you have forgotten how many states Obama won. If Hillary gets 10 states on Super Tuesday, there will be no comparison to 2008. Clinton would be up 12-3 in states. Obama and Clinton were at a virtual tie I believe in state wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterMP Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Not really. He needed it to be close, and it was. Two points you seem to be missing: 1. The delegates are apportioned. Even if Hillary hangs on to the lead in those 10 states, Bernie will get enough delegates to stay in it. 2. There are a lot more than 16 states in the country. Doesn't anybody remember 2008? Hillary was the front runner at this time then too, and Obama lost Nevada to her by a wider margin than Bernie, and Bernie is closing the gap in the polls faster than Obama did. And yes I am hopeful. I'm holding out hope this race is 2008 all over again for Hillary. Is it a long shot? Sure. But it is also well within the realm of possibility. I'm not saying he's done, but the difference was, especially important through out the south, you knew Obama was going to get the black Democratic vote. Through most of the polling season Obama was even or ahead of Hillary in S. Carolina (and certainly at this point in time in the process was ahead) and easily defeated her in S. Carolina, while even the latest polls show Sanders trailing by >20%. He has to close that gap. If he's even with her in S. Carolina he's got a chance, but if it is a 20% loss, he's done. To compare Obama to Sanders at this point in time isn't realistic. Whether people like it or not, you knew there were a lot of Democratic strong holds where the African American community was going to turn out large and big for Obama. Obama good look at states or areas of states and just really simply based on demographics, I'm going to do really well there. Sanders does not have the same fall back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
visionary Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Rubio said the Romney thing is false so far. But he would love to have his support. Also https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/701045567783219201?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/21/politics/donald-trump-marco-rubio-eligibility/index.html Trump: I'm not sure Rubio is eligible for presidency Donald Trump says he's not sure whether Marco Rubio is eligible for the presidency. And Rubio says it's just the latest in a line of Trump's "outrageous" comments designed to suck up media attention. Rubio is a U.S. citizen who was born in Miami. He is, in fact, eligible for the presidency -- even though his parents migrated from Cuba. But Trump stirred controversy on Saturday by retweeting a message suggesting that neither Rubio nor Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who was born in Canada to a U.S. citizen mother, meet the constitutional requirements for the Oval Office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s0crates Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 To compare this election to 2008, Sanders would actually have to beat Hillary. Perhaps you have forgotten how many states Obama won. If Hillary gets 10 states on Super Tuesday, there will be no comparison to 2008. Clinton would be up 12-3 in states. Obama and Clinton were at a virtual tie I believe in state wins. Again, winning a state isn't what you seem to think. These are not winner-take-all contests. A win by 5% is not the same as a win by 20%. If the delegate count is within 100 or so by March 2nd, as it should be, then the race will continue. Anyway I'm a bit surprised to see you of all people so eager to crown Hillary. Maybe you've realized that a Hillary nomination gives the GOP a better shot in the general? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ixcuincle Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I'm just so shocked that HIllary is able to maintain standing when everyone is talking about BERNIE and his policies and his fundraising And I'm like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
s0crates Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 I'm not saying he's done, but the difference was, especially important through out the south, you knew Obama was going to get the black Democratic vote. Through most of the polling season Obama was even or ahead of Hillary in S. Carolina (and certainly at this point in time in the process was ahead) and easily defeated her in S. Carolina, while even the latest polls show Sanders trailing by >20%. He has to close that gap. If he's even with her in S. Carolina he's got a chance, but if it is a 20% loss, he's done. To compare Obama to Sanders at this point in time isn't realistic. Whether people like it or not, you knew there were a lot of Democratic strong holds where the African American community was going to turn out large and big for Obama. Sanders does not have the same fall back. Obviously Bernie's coalition isn't the same as Obama's, but the key is keeping the race close in the next couple weeks, which Bernie probably will. For example, Hillary beat Obama soundly in Massachusetts and lost to him soundly in South Carolina. Those results will probably be flipped this go around between Hillary and Bernie. My point is not that Bernie will follow the exact same path to victory as Obama, it is that Bernie still has a path to victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.