Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Ummm... not sure I get your math there. According to this, in 2012, eligible Anglos turned out to vote at a 60.9 percent rate, while Hispanics turned out at a 38.8 percent rate. http://www.burntorangereport.com/diary/13488/a-look-at-texas-voter-turnout-by-ethnicity That's how white Republicans dominate in what is (or soon will be) a majority minority state. 60some percent of eligible whites vote for Republicans at a 75 percent clip. would you happen to know the white turnout number here? Texas is consistently in the bottom five states for voter turnout. In the 2010 election, about 41 percent of eligible voters turned out nationwide, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. In Texas, 32 percent did. That means Rick Perry was elected to his third full term by just 17 percent of the state’s eligible voters. Among Hispanics, these rates are even lower. The national Latino voting rate was close to 50 percent in 2008. But in Texas that year, just 38 percent of Latinos turned out to vote http://www.texasobserver.org/no-shows-why-so-few-texans-bother-to-vote/ obviously a higher percentage of eligible Latinos voted than whites Texas didn't do exit polling in 2012. That 75 to 80 percent number for Romney is an educate estimate at best. This next gubernatorial campaign will probably reveal whether "Turning Texas Blue" is a legit possibility in the next 20 years. There is no way that Davis can win. The question is, can she pull white women and have a strong GOTV among Hispanics? If she starts the process of uniting the obvious Democratic constituencies here, Republicans have a big problem going forward. If she gets crushed, well, it's business as usual probably for the rest of my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Ummm... not sure I get your math there. According to this, in 2012, eligible Anglos turned out to vote at a 60.9 percent rate, while Hispanics turned out at a 38.8 percent rate. http://www.burntorangereport.com/diary/13488/a-look-at-texas-voter-turnout-by-ethnicity My math depends on the numbers supplied with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 If she gets crushed, well, it's business as usual probably for the rest of my lifetime. Business as usual is continuing the trend of electing more Hispanic Republicans? Even some of the elected Dem ones are switching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 obviously a higher percentage of eligible Latinos voted than whites I suspect the Census denies the obviousness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I suspect the Census denies the obviousness. TWA does not look back, man. That argument was, like, five posts ago. He has more ridiculous, unsupportable arguments to make. Ever forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilmer17 Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 That's how white Republicans dominate in what is (or soon will be) a majority minority state. 60some percent of eligible whites vote for Republicans at a 75 percent clip. Texas didn't do exit polling in 2012. That 75 to 80 percent number for Romney is an educate estimate at best. This next gubernatorial campaign will probably reveal whether "Turning Texas Blue" is a legit possibility in the next 20 years. There is no way that Davis can win. The question is, can she pull white women and have a strong GOTV among Hispanics? If she starts the process of uniting the obvious Democratic constituencies here, Republicans have a big problem going forward. If she gets crushed, well, it's business as usual probably for the rest of my lifetime. Its the idea that there is an "obvious Democrat constituency" that I question. That may be true today, but there is no way anyone can make that kind of blanket assertion for the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Are you suggesting Kilmer that the GOP will somehow magically get the hispanic vote when no one to date at the national level has been able to do so? Heck, even the GOP candidates who favored some type of amnesty (like Dubya) still got smoked. What other issue would the GOP be able to offer that would cause these voters to vote GOP instead of for the party that has allegedly supported their cause for 40+ years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilmer17 Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Are you suggesting Kilmer that the GOP will somehow magically get the hispanic vote when no one to date at the national level has been able to do so? Magically? No. Are you suggesting that the GOP has no chance ever of improving there showing with Hispanics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Predicto Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Are you suggesting Kilmer that the GOP will somehow magically get the hispanic vote when no one to date at the national level has been able to do so? It's possible. I suspect that the Hispanic vote has been highly Democratic largely because the GOP uses immigration bashing as a means to get out their base White voters. Many Hispanics find that insulting. The Hispanic vote in California used to be pretty even (Ronald Reagan got almost half of them in 1984) lurched toward the Democrats in the 1990s when Pete Wilson and the GOP went all in on the anti-immigrant Proposition 187 and the anti-bilingual Proposition 227. If the GOP cuts back on that strategy, a couple of election cycles down the road Hispanic voters might become a tossup. No one knows for sure, because it has never happened yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Magically? No. Are you suggesting that the GOP has no chance ever of improving there showing with Hispanics? Not as long as the GOP is seen to support policies that make the rich richer and poor poorer. The local yokel appeal of the GOP that sells to middle america doesn't appear to sell to the hispanic population. That's probably why they don't get the same poor hispanic vote that they get from the middle america whitey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Magically? No. Are you suggesting that the GOP has no chance ever of improving there showing with Hispanics? The GOP has showed no ability to attract minority votes (aside from old Cubans in Florida) since about the 20s. And the numbers keep going in the wrong direction for them. Asians vote for Democrats at the same level of Hispanics. And this is the supposed "model minority" that believes in hard work and small businesses and low taxes and all that BS. If the GOP cuts back on that strategy, a couple of election cycles down the road Hispanic voters might become a tossup. No one knows for sure, because it has never happened yet. It's theoretically possible. But we are 20 years from Prop 187 and the idea that the GOP is anti-Hispanic has had a generation to calcify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilmer17 Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Not as long as the GOP is seen to support policies that make the rich richer and poor poorer. The local yokel appeal of the GOP that sells to middle america doesn't appear to sell to the hispanic population. That's probably why they don't get the same poor hispanic vote that they get from the middle america whitey. Yes. You seem stuck on the idea that everything will remain static and neither party will have any shift in their message and platform. And that the candidates will be mirror images of the current and recent ones. And that specifically, the Hispanic population will remain poor in comparison to "whitey" I dont think that's remotely possible for any of that to occur. It's the same thought process that lead GOP backers to believe after 1984 that a Democrat could never win a Natl election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It's possible. I suspect that the Hispanic vote has been highly Democratic largely because the GOP uses immigration bashing as a means to get out their base White voters. Many Hispanics find that insulting. If the GOP cuts back on that strategy, a couple of election cycles down the road Hispanic voters might become a tossup. No one knows for sure, because it has never happened yet. But I'm not sure the immigration issue is really the be all end all to the hispanic/latino voters. I think it's support for policies that put more $'s in my pockets and provides more help on the way up that those voters want. Not policies that give tax breaks to the top 5% or that take away healthcare, etc. This is something that the GOP hasn't been able to sell to them like that have to middle america poor whites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilmer17 Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 On a short term history lesson, it's the same thought process that lead Dem backers to believe after Obama won in 08 that the GOP would never be able to take back the House and Senate. That idea lasted less than 2 years for the House, and might be done in 6 in the Senate. And it would have been done by now in the Senate if the GOP had nominated the better candidates in certain states. A mistake they've learned from this cycle so far. But I'm not sure the immigration issue is really the be all end all to the hispanic/latino voters. I think it's support for policies that put more $'s in my pockets and provides more help on the way up that those voters want. Not policies that give tax breaks to the top 5% or that take away healthcare, etc. This is something that the GOP hasn't been able to sell to them like that have to middle america poor whites. If that's actually true (and I dont agree it is), why would you think the GOP would continue to try and make that work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yes. You seem stuck on the idea that everything will remain static and neither party will have any shift in their message and platform. And that the candidates will be mirror images of the current and recent ones. And that specifically, the Hispanic population will remain poor in comparison to "whitey" I dont think that's remotely possible for any of that to occur. It's the same thought process that lead GOP backers to believe after 1984 that a Democrat could never win a Natl election. I'm stuck on the idea that the GOP won't change as long as it's ruled with an iron fist by the fringe christian far right. Unless the party has an epic change of heart - do you see anyone really embracing the Latino/Hispanic vote from the GOP with policies and programs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Predicto Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Not as long as the GOP is seen to support policies that make the rich richer and poor poorer. The local yokel appeal of the GOP that sells to middle america doesn't appear to sell to the hispanic population. That's probably why they don't get the same poor hispanic vote that they get from the middle america whitey. I really don't think it is the rich and poor thing as much as it is the immigrant-bashing thing. I suspect Hispanics are just as suseptable to the "American Dream Anyone Can Be Rich Bootstraps!" pitch as lower middle class whites. Its the GOP dividing of people into "real Americans" and "others" that is so aggravating to those who feel like they are being "otherized." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 If that's actually true (and I dont agree it is), why would you think the GOP would continue to try and make that work? Because it will probably still work at the state and local level for a long long long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Predicto Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It's the same thought process that lead GOP backers to believe after 1984 that a Democrat could never win a Natl election. Is it time to poke fun at SkinsHokieFan yet? His prediction of a permanant Democratic majority in 1988 lasted about 18 months. Poke poke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kilmer17 Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 I'm stuck on the idea that the GOP won't change as long as it's ruled with an iron fist by the fringe christian far right. Unless the party has an epic change of heart - do you see anyone really embracing the Latino/Hispanic vote from the GOP with policies and programs? Again, I think you're view of the GOP is simply innacurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@DCGoldPants Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Again, I think you're view of the GOP is simply innacurate. Think that until the GOP adapts/grows, folks won't think they can. The Hispanic population adds a lot of new eligible voters every day. Even if it's inaccurate, a majority of that population continue to feel the GOP is "against" them. Whatever that means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I really don't think it is the rich and poor thing as much as it is the immigrant-bashing thing. I suspect Hispanics are just as suseptable to the "American Dream Anyone Can Be Rich Bootstraps!" pitch as lower middle class whites. Its the GOP dividing of people into "real Americans" and "others" that is so aggravating to those who feel like they are being "otherized." Will they have to give up on referring to people in the bottom 50% of income as "parasites" and "leeches", too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Predicto Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Will they have to give up on referring to people in the bottom 50% of income as "parasites" and "leeches", too? Nope. Everyone thinks that refers to someone other than themselves, even while they are collecting unemployment, Medicare, Social Security, disability. Other people don't deserve benefits, but I earned them! However, it is hard for a Mexican guy to not notice who they are talking about when someone suggests putting machine guns and crocodile pits along the border to keep out the undesirables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 TWA does not look back, man. That argument was, like, five posts ago. He has more ridiculous, unsupportable arguments to make. Ever forward. Some of us have to work. you will find Hispanics don't like to be strung along, if Texas turns ever blue again it will be a different blue than what most Dems on here are selling. add interesting trend here http://wcvi.org/latino_voter_research/latino_voter_statistics/tx_lv.html Hispanic TO% 69.5% in 08 to 43.3% in 2010....a rather consistent one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 interesting trend here http://wcvi.org/latino_voter_research/latino_voter_statistics/tx_lv.html Hispanic TO% 69.5% in 08 to 43.3% in 2010....a rather consistent one Maybe they only show up when their votes haven't been gerrymandered into "Nobody but the GOP can possibly win" irrelevancy? Just a theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Maybe they only show up when their votes haven't been gerrymandered into "Nobody but the GOP can possibly win" irrelevancy? Just a theory. You are obviously unfamiliar with our minority/majority drawn districts oddly enough I am a they , always fun how Hispanic and Latino are used.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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