Will Shallen Get Playoff Talent by 2014???

[PlayAction]

ARtMonkforHOF "they have shown no ability to get good talent up to this point, so I don't see why anyone would expect them to change. Outside of RG3, this team has little to no talent, and most of that talent was here before Shallen got here."

Shallen replaced the entire OL, WR core, RBs, 2/3 of the TEs, and QBs. Obviously, the WR group hasn't stepped up and shown that any of them are bettter than #3s. Even so, the Skins can now score more than 10-13pts per game. That's a vast improvement and they'll be even better next year if Garcon comes back completely healthy. Davis will be a bonus. If just one of the other WRs can develop consistency (or the Skins can acquire another) then they will be fine on Offense.

Shallen made two very big mistakes in evaluating/acquiring talent. Wasting a #2 pick on McNabb and believing that it was possible to completely revamp the Defense to suit the 3-4 while at the same time completing the revamp of the Offense as detailed above. There are still too many holes left on the Defense where it could have been completely fixed as a 4:3. I'm not advocating returning to a 4:3 because the transition back would take another 3 years at the expense of maintaining talent on the Offense.

[JoeSkins]

The team is pretty close to having playoff talent. There are too many injuries at the moment, though. With those guys back, guys like Morgan, Jenkins and Kerrigan can take a big step forward due to matchup changes and rotational help. Fully healthy, the team really isn't missing that many pieces.

[Wyvern]

Heightened expections often lead to magnified disappointments. I don't we should be moving Shanahan onto the hot-seat, because folks expected the Skins to be dominating in year 3. Shanahan has gottent the Skins out of the deep hole they were in -- and hopefully he'll be moving the Skins to a higher plane in 2013 and 2014.

Let's remember, that when Shanahan came here -- he inherited one of the biggest messes in the NFL. He had a 4-12 team, bound up in long-term contracts, and a roster full of aging players in decline. Moreover, the franchise had degraded to the point that almost no quality coaches were willing to risk their reputations to come to the Skins.

The 2009 roster Shanahan inherited was fairly poor. There was almost nothing on offense -- (okay maybe Moss), no O-line, a banged up RB, and the crop of Vinny's WRs, Cooley in decline and an unknown quantity in Fred Davis. On defense, the 'super-stars' were Fletcher, Haynesworth, Landry, Hall, Rogers, and Orakpo ...with Barnes and McIntosh as part of the youth movement. The defensive line was aging, and benefiting from huge contracts. Shanahan would need to overhaul the team, while somehow keeping somewhat competitive to retain the fan base.

Consider what he inherited from 2009 and morph the Skins playoff contender caliber in 2012-- Shanahan would have needed to struck gold with almost all his draft choices and also his free agent acquisitions, and not have too many injuries. Moreover, his team would need to show enough success early on in order to coax good players and coaches into considering coming back to the Skins franchise.

Shanahan and Allen may have done okay with their drafts, but their luck in free agency was not so good. Part of this, was because Shanahan is using free agents like short-term 'bandaids' to help field a competitive team, until he can build some depth through the draft and UFDAs. So, a lot of free-agents were short-termers, holding the seat until the rookies arrived.

And let's acknowledge that Shanahan has built some depth for the D-line, the Linebacking corps, the O-line, Running backs, WR, and especially at QB.

And let's even note that he's tried to do that for the defensive backfield -- but just hasn't been lucky. Consider that effectively Barnes and Tryon washed out, Atogwe and Landry too injured, Jackson suspended, Merriweather injured, Bernstine injured, Gomes is more special-teamer than starter quality and still too raw, Kareem Moore and Horton -- too limited, and Hall?...enough said. Rogers didn't want to stay, and considering the need to manage the cap, Josh Wilson was a serviceable replacement.

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This team will benefit by maintaining continuity -- I think the offense is starting to gel, even with a lot of rookies and 1 year players. As for the defense, I'd stick with the 3-4, because the personnel now fit that scheme. While, I don't think Haslett should be the fall-guy for defense still riddled with holes, he needs to be on the hot-seat. Smith should be on the hot seat (maybe the ejector seat) too -- he's been given a lot of talent and doesn't take good advantage of it. Slowik needs to go and a good linebacking coach found. So, maybe just a few small changes for another year, because these rookies don't need to be confused by a revolving door of coaches.

That said, the team's medical staff, training/conditioning staff, and equipment staff need to scrutinized -- and replacements found. These groups have created issues for the Skins for over three seasons now, and they aren't as crucial for team continuity.

[Oldfan]

...Let's remember, that when Shanahan came here -- he inherited one of the biggest messes in the NFL. ...

I think this is an exaggeration.

By his choice, the offensive and defensive schemes were changed, which rendered several useful players useless.

If he wasn't going to use a two TE base scheme, he could have traded Cooley who was healthy and in his prime for a #2. Haynesworth didn't fit and could have been traded for a #3 to a 4-3 team before the famous flap. Andre Carter could have been traded for a #6 at least. The McNabb trade cost us a #2 and a #4.

So, the argument that he took over the biggest mess in the NFL and did the best he could with it, doesn't work.

As for what he did in 2011 and 2012, the jury is still out. But, I can safely say that the majority of Skins fans are overrating our young talent. I can say that because we do it every year.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

As for what he did in 2011 and 2012, the jury is still out. But, I can safely say that the majority of Skins fans are overrating our young talent. I can say that because we do it every year.

You can no more say that with any positivity on the current crop than one could say your undervaluing them.

It still is all to play out.

Hail.

[KCClybun]

I think this is an exaggeration.

I don't. Look at how many guys we've cut who have either remained unemployed or who are rotting in the bench.

You've overrated how talented we were. We were old and busted. Scheme change or not, there wasn't much talent on that 2009 team at all. If Mike made a mistake it's thinking his team was better than it was.

And I don't think we get anything close to a number 2 pick for Cooley, not coming off a major knee injury.

[The Robert Griffin Experience]

I don't. Look at how many guys we've cut who have either remained unemployed or who are rotting in the bench.

You've overrated how talented we were. We were old and busted. Scheme change or not, there wasn't much talent on that 2009 team at all. If Mike made a mistake it's thinking his team was better than it was.

And I don't think we get anything close to a number 2 pick for Cooley, not coming off a major knee injury.

Shockey got a 2 coming off a major knee injury. I think Cooley could have gotten a 3. Haynesworth should have gotten a 3, though the cap hit would have been too much if you ask me, so you could arguing that trying to salvage him was the right call. Carter should have gotten a 3 or a 4. A 5 at worst. Those were mistakes, absolutely. Shanny's 2010 season was a disaster on many levels, only salvaged by the inspired pick of TW over Okung or Berry.

[Oldfan]

I don't. Look at how many guys we've cut who have either remained unemployed or who are rotting in the bench.

You've overrated how talented we were. We were old and busted. Scheme change or not, there wasn't much talent on that 2009 team at all. If Mike made a mistake it's thinking his team was better than it was.

And I don't think we get anything close to a number 2 pick for Cooley, not coming off a major knee injury.

I have considered who was cut and who became useful to other teams from the 2010 roster. I have also considered the older players who were useful for a time.

If you see a marked improvement in the roster, then you might be like most Skins fans, overrating our young talent. We Skins fans tend to do it every year. We are younger, but except at the QB position, we aren't more talented. Moreover, we have mortgaged two first round picks to improve at QB.

Cooley was injured during the 2010 season. I think he was worth a #2 before that.

[PorkSkins]

We have just as many holes to fill now as when the Shannanigans were hired. MLB, both safeties, DE, WR, and punter are just a start for next year. I don't remember all of these positions being an issue when the Shannanigans started. We are younger but not winning. That's called evaluating talent and coaching.

[SkinsFTW]

I'd bet that if we had grabbed Wade Phillips after Dallas fired him we'd be a playoff team this year. The injuries would hurt our chances but I bet he'd figure something out. He did it in San Diego and now Houston when both teams best pass rusher went down, the defense was still dominating as if nothing happened.

Not many of us thought Haslett was a good decision when it was made, I'm pretty sure that's at least 95% right now or more.

[Skins3000]

I'd bet that if we had grabbed Wade Phillips after Dallas fired him we'd be a playoff team this year. The injuries would hurt our chances but I bet he'd figure something out. He did it in San Diego and now Houston when both teams best pass rusher went down, the defense was still dominating as if nothing happened.

Not many of us thought Haslett was a good decision when it was made, I'm pretty sure that's at least 95% right now or more.

Boy we think alike. I posted this in another thread without reading your comments. Houston let Mario Williams walk and traded Ryans. These players were thought to be cornerstone players only for them to be replaced with the next man up. Scheme can make a team. I know the Eagles wish they could find the next Jim Johnson because he was a beast for the Eagles. I loved that Jim Johnson defense because of their unpredictable style. I hope the Skins can find their own Jim Johnson one day because Haslett was not the first choice of Mike it was Zimmerman but Mike settled for a second tier coach in Haslett and it has shown on the field.

[Geneva]

Whatever you're smoking, please pass that ****. There's simply not enough talent here to be 7-1, no matter who the coach is...

[Wyvern]

Oldfan is right that I engaged in some hyperbole -- the Cerrato/Zorn/Snyder Redskins wasn't the worst situation in the NFL (the Lions and Raiders come to mind) but it was definitely in bad shape with lots of problems. To remedy the situation, Shanahan had his job cut out for him. But I think that several factors governed Shanahan's actions during his first season:

1. First, the team needed to get on a more stable footing salary-wise, and this meant releasing some of the high-priced veterans (Cornelius Griffin, Thomas, Randle-El, Smoot in 2009) in a phased manner as well as letting go of Cerrato hirings that weren't performing at an NFL level. And whatever free agents they brought in, would be short-term, bargain basement FAs, because he'd already needed to invest in a few new marquee players.

2. He'd need to keep a few marquee players because he had to respect Snyders concerns of retaining the Skins market-base as the team was transitioning. The Skins fanbase was already disgruntled by the total futility of the team during the Zorn years, and if Shanahan overtly blew up the team for three years to stock it with youth -- that might have resulted in even more defections. That's why you had Shanahan (maybe Snyder too) looking for an All Pro QB to replace Campbell, while some rookie could be later be worked in. Free Agents were brought in, not only to protect the QB, but to help field a team that could somewhat compete. Moreover, with an All Pro QB at the helm, Shanahan could better evaluate the WR talent he had and other areas. Marquee players like Cooley, Portis, McNabb and (yes) Hall needed to be retained or the team wouldn't have the stars needed to keep the fans loyal and buying the Redskins product. So Shanahan had to look to see which marquee vets could fit in his system.

3. Shanahan was not only repairing the team's roster -- he was repairing the team's reputation. We can talk about D-Coordinators who'd have been better than Haslett -- but it's not certain who'd be willing to come. Washington had developed a reputation as a coaches graveyard, a place where there was very little player discipline and where the owner often stepped in publically to the detriment of the coach. Moreover, Washington's personnel situation probably deterred some coaches, who felt the team was going to have to take some bitter medicine before it could get better.

I'll grant that switching to a 3-4 seemed like an unnecessary rebuild, and that Haslett wasn't my first choice. However, there is a respected school of thought that the 3-4 is better at stopping the run and provides more ways of pressuring the quarterback -- which seems like a good way to defend in the run-heavy NFC-East. But has much as I've doubted Haslett game-day tactics, I do think he's rebuilt the front seven into something respectable with depth (I still believe a bona-fide NT is needed, but Baker and Nield might fit the bill). The real is is that Haslett can't find the right game-day tactics to cover for how badly the defensive secondary has fallen apart, and with all the injuries to to the front seven, I'm wondering if anyone could.

[Oldfan]

Oldfan is right that I engaged in some hyperbole -- the Cerrato/Zorn/Snyder Redskins wasn't the worst situation in the NFL (the Lions and Raiders come to mind) but it was definitely in bad shape with lots of problems....

Even when we disagree, I find your posts worth reading because your arguments are well presented. Here, we have a different view of just about everything.

I think if Shanahan had come to town with a reputation for working well with his defensive coordinators, he could have found someone better qualified than Haslett. I think his judgment on McNabb was an ego-trip. He thought he could correct Donovan's mechanics to make him fit his scheme. He wanted to show that he was smarter than Andy Reid whose scheme masked McNabb's shortcomings.

I think 2010 was a wasted year, but Mike picked up his game in 2011.

The jury is still out on his drafts. It will take a while to judge those.

[bedlamVR]

Cooley was injured during the 2010 season. I think he was worth a #2 before that.

Cooley was definatly injured in 2009 and it was 2009 that Davis started to show his stuff . I really do not think anyone would have given more than a 4th for Cooley in 2010 and he was worth more than that to us than the 4th round pick would have been . You also have to remember when Shokey was traded it was more because he was a malcontent rather than because of on field performance - Shockey was rookie of the year and went to the probowl 4 out of 5 of his first few seasons with the Giants . Cooley was a focal part of a bad offense and an over acheiver .

Also you have to look at who was traded in 2009 for a second round pick (Gonzalez) and I LOVE Cooley but there is no way Cooley is in the same stratosphere as Tony G .

As for the Roster we were old an aging everywhere - when MS came into the team he commented that the only depth we had was at TE and it was probably true . We had a smattering of stars but that smattering of stars was taking up huge chunks of the cap so we had nothing resembling depth and most of the stars were not playing to their potential . The offensive line all had to be replaced - do we remember big Mike Williams - I think he could have made an excellent G but his health wasn't there - but he was brought in by Vinny as a potential 2009 starter for gods sake .

The team we have right now is young and is getting better - the front 7 is light years departed from what we had in 2009 where we had Daniels and Holiday as starters at one point and both of them are older than me . The LBs have depth (I really like Alexander, Jackson, Robinson comanding more playing time) and the only position on D that is worse on paper is in the secondary which Josh Morgan is not a bad player - Hall can have his moments, but generally lacking .

On offense - i think you forget just how bad it was - we would regulary have no 2 and no 3 receivers with around 500 yards between them - IF that - Right now all the receivers down to No 4 on the depth are looking in the 5-600 yard range and I think we will have at least 2 around the 1000 yard mark come the end of the season which is remarkable with a rookie QB . With the exeption of Moss all the WR are young and have some talent and the Steelers game is a terrible place to make judgement but all have decent hands -

At RB we have tremendous depth with no name players having huge impact - Alfred Moris is amazingly strong and decisive and could have a good 5-6 year career here because he will end up splitting time with other backs being platooned in . Shanahna is showing his mastery at the running back position once again .

On the offensive line - the depth is not really there at the moment (but it is young for the most part) but we have totally revamped the line from 2 years ago - Right now Williams is playing as well as anyone in at his position in the NFL - a true replacement to Chris Samuels, but moreover than that we have Cory L, Will Montgomery Chris Chester and Polumbus ALL playing well . When we start rotating LeRib in I hope he will be more than ready ..

And then you have the picks that have been made - Williams, Kerrigan and Griffin - None are disapointments I would pick them again if the draft was tomorrow - (Watt would be a nice addition but end was taken before Kerrigan and the moves we made were all solid depth (if nothing else) selections)....

The things which will make this team a playoff team in 2014 is building on what happens this year - All this we must blow it all up is beyond dumb - and as for over rating our players - i think perception is they are generally worse than they actually are - most of our young players are playing well at their positions compared to their peers . It is the default (and somewhat ignorant) oppinion we are trash ..

[Oldfan]

Cooley was definatly injured in 2009...

He injured an ankle in 2009, but it was his knee injury in 2010 that was a lingering problem. From Wikipedia: [Cooley played in all sixteen games of 2010 season, but had arthroscopic surgery on his left knee on January 3, 2011.]

Also you have to look at who was traded in 2009 for a second round pick (Gonzalez) and I LOVE Cooley but there is no way Cooley is in the same stratosphere as Tony G .

Gonzales was older. Cooley was in his prime.

The team we have right now is young and is getting better -

It's the getting better part that I can't see. I think you are looking at the young players on our roster with rose colored glasses. Our outstanding players were #1 picks in the draft. Even Vinny did well with the #1 picks.

On offense - i think you forget just how bad it was - we would regulary have no 2 and no 3 receivers with around 500 yards between them -

Sure, you had Campbell passing to them in a conservative WCO.

Do you see any drafted receiver now on the roster that you can say is sure to be on our roster in two years?

At RB we have tremendous depth with no name players having huge impact -

The RB position is a plus. Granted.

On the offensive line - the depth is not really there at the moment (but it is young for the most part) but we have totally revamped the line from 2 years ago - Right now Williams is playing as well as anyone in at his position in the NFL - a true replacement to Chris Samuels, but moreover than that we have Cory L, Will Montgomery Chris Chester and Polumbus ALL playing well . When we start rotating LeRib in I hope he will be more than ready .

The line has been totally revamped, but how can you say they are all playing well? A #1 pick was spent on Williams and he looks like he's going to be a good player. But, who else? The way RG3 is used masks the weakness of the O-line.

The things which will make this team a playoff team in 2014 is building on what happens this year - All this we must blow it all up is beyond dumb - and as for over rating our players - i think perception is they are generally worse than they actually are - most of our young players are playing well at their positions compared to their peers . It is the default (and somewhat ignorant) oppinion we are trash ..

Don't make up positions for me. You didn't read me saying we should blow anything up. Nor did I say we were trash. The question is which of us is being realistic? The only players we have who could be called core starters on our roster were number one picks with the exception of Morris-- and we have already traded the two number ones we had for 2013 and 2014.

[fosback]

For years Dan Snyder ignored everyone around him and kept a bunch of buffoons around running the team/front office. I sincerely hopes Danny boy IGNORES everyone NOW for the next 5 years and let Shanny and Allen build this team. If we give them time they will have a team like the Houston Texans.

I hope the fans are not influenced by the Wash Post and radio Talking heads who create controversy to get listeners.