Chalk Talk Discussion Topic: What's the issue with our defense?

[MartinC]

I find it very odd that Haslett has all this talent according to some, yet he spends all game shuffling people in and out of the lineup. Talk about creativity/adjustments, they were in full effect in this Vikings game.

I dont think many of us think this is all about Haslett and I certainly recognize there are talent issues especially at safety and lack of a real difference maker apart from Kerrigan in the front 7 with Orakpo out. I do think Haslett is more part of the problem than the solution though - getting better talent is certainly part of the solution.

[KDawg]

Forgive me, I'm on this new iPad and somehow I deleted half of the DVOAs

1997: -13.2 (1)

1998: -7.6 (6)

1999: 5.1 (22) I would venture to say something happened to his level of talent this year, such a drastic drop from 6 to 22nd.

Furthermore his best year was actually his 3rd year as their DC. The really only bad year he had was his last year, so it's not fair to say they got progressively worse, they were good for his first 4 years and then on his 5th they did extremely poorly. That's a fairly large 1 year swing to be indicative or some sort of progression in my opinion. I honestly don't remember enough about these Steelers to analyze them that closely though.

he was only the DC in Pittsburgh from 97-99. So I'm not sure where you're getting your years from. He didn't have a fourth or fifth year there.

In 98 his starters were:

DE Orpheus Roy

DE Kevin Henry

NT Joel Steed

OLB Jason Gildon

ILB Levon Kirkland

ILB Earl Holmes

OLB Carlos Emmons

CB Carnell Lake

CB Dewayne Washington

SS Lee Flowers

FS Darren Perry

In 99 the only difference in starters was:

FS Travis Davis

CB Chad Scott

I wouldn't say the talent differed all that much.

And for the record, the DVOA rankings you posted got progressively worse...

Year 1: -13.2 (LeBeau inherited defense)

Year 2: -7.6 (part LeBeau, more Haslett)

Year 3: 5.1 (Haslett's D)

Remember, it takes three years to transition according to his own words.

[Mahons21]

I dont think many of us think this is all about Haslett and I certainly recognize there are talent issues especially at safety and lack of a real difference maker apart from Kerrigan in the front 7 with Orakpo out. I do think Haslett is more part of the problem than the solution though - getting better talent is certainly part of the solution.

I agree that a few of you in this thread don't feel it's all about Haslett, but look around ES my good sir. These people think it is ALL Haslett.

[Lavarleap56]

I find it very odd that Haslett has all this talent according to some, yet he spends all game shuffling people in and out of the lineup. Talk about creativity/adjustments, they were in full effect in this Vikings game.

Lol..

The only real adjustments made were he finally stacked the gaps on some pressures. Haslett basically ran the same stuff we have ran all year and defense almost gave up the lead.. Again.

[Mahons21]

KDawg my mistake, like I said I don't remember enough about these Steelers. I did read though that he was promoted in 1996, don't know why I included 95, he was LBs coach then. I assume he was DC 96-99, since he was promoted in 96, but I'm now realizing he could have been promoted in 96 after the season ended.

/

As far as personnel is concerned in the 99 year, were their any significant injuries? Any rise in divisional opponents etc?

Like I said 6 to 22, is not progression in my opinion, it's a large jump indicative of something different.

[MartinC]

I agree that a few of you in this thread don't feel it's all about Haslett, but look around ES my good sir. These people think it is ALL Haslett.

Thats ES for you though - herd instinct and superficial conclusions formed with no real information or expertise is what message boards are all about

[Morneblade]

I agree that a few of you in this thread don't feel it's all about Haslett, but look around ES my good sir. These people think it is ALL Haslett.

I think it is safe to say that this isnt true. We knew coming in that our secondary might be in alot of trouble, before we lost Jackson for the season and Meriweather for the first 8 games. Part of it is personel, but more of it is Haslett.

[KDawg]

KDawg my mistake, like I said I don't remember enough about these Steelers. I did read though that he was promoted in 1996, don't know why I included 95, he was LBs coach then. I assume he was DC 96-99, since he was promoted in 96, but I'm now realizing he could have been promoted in 96 after the season ended.

LeBeau was the DC until the end of the 96 season. In 1997 he became the defensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals.

In the year 2000, Haslett moved on to New Orleans.

Keep in mind, the numbers you credited to Haslett in 1996 were really LeBeau's. As was 1995.

As far as personnel is concerned in the 99 year, were their any significant injuries? Any rise in divisional opponents etc?

Like I said 6 to 22, is not progression in my opinion, it's a large jump indicative of something different.

Looking at statistics it looks like the majority of his starters played 15 or 16 games in 1999. Chad Scott played in 13 and Joel Steed played in 14. So it doesn't look like there were any significant injuries. Just a drop in production.

I think the large fall was indicative of Haslett's finger print.

[Oldfan]

Mediocre talent is probably the main problem on defense but there's this...

Back in August of 2010, Jim Haslett was quoted by the Washington Post:

"In this league, you average 10 to 11 possessions on offense a game; and if you can get three turnovers, that gives your offense 14 and that gives the team we're playing against eight."

That just isn't true. Turnovers don't create extra possessions.

It's a slippery concept. So, if a stadium poster said it, I wouldn't think much of it. But, when a man of Haslett's experience says it, my impression was that the guy is just not very bright.

His explanation after his zero blitz helped lose the Dallas game last year was also dumb. I don't have that quote, though.

[KDawg]

Mediocre talent is probably the main problem but there's this...

Back in August of 2010, Jim Haslett was quoted by the Washington Post:

"In this league, you average 10 to 11 possessions on offense a game; and if you can get three turnovers, that gives your offense 14 and that gives the team we're playing against eight."

That's actually moronic to say.

Any possession that there is a turnover on is still a possession. And any time you get the ball defensively the opposition eventually gets it back.Possessions are generally even in a game barring a few circumstances.

[RandyHolt]

Turnovers largely change field position and momentum, and occasionally net a score.

With a high powered offense, a defense can take risks. Or, it can sit back and play bend don't break. The irony of bend don't break, we keep the ball out of our own III's control. So I want to see Haslet take risks. Just not predictable risks, like last week, two late LB's rushing up the gut, over and over.

Its high time that teams start trying not to score to quickly, to keep the ball our of our hands. Don't be that guy, Haslet.

[Lavarleap56]

Forgive me, I'm on this new iPad and somehow I deleted half of the DVOAs

1997: -13.2 (1)

1998: -7.6 (6)

1999: 5.1 (22) I would venture to say something happened to his level of talent this year, such a drastic drop from 6 to 22nd.

Furthermore his best year was actually his 3rd year as their DC. The really only bad year he had was his last year, so it's not fair to say they got progressively worse, they were good for his first 4 years and then on his 5th they did extremely poorly. That's a fairly large 1 year swing to be indicative or some sort of progression in my opinion. I honestly don't remember enough about these Steelers to analyze them that closely though.

---------- Post added October-16th-2012 at 09:45 AM ----------

[/color]

I'm sure he has some influence on who he gets, but so does Mike, so does Bruce, so do the scouts, I can't give him that much grief for his personnel, especially considering he's short 2 projected starting safeties, a 5 tech, and arguably the best player on defense in Rak.

---------- Post added October-16th-2012 at 09:59 AM ----------

Dear posters who say Haslett doesn't adjust, YOU ARE WRONG. Not addressed towards you KDawg, just for clarification sake.

Don't think anyone has said he does not adjust. He makes adjustments just not quick enough in game and not the right ones. This is not only a message board perception of Haslett. A few NFL people think he makes bad adjustments and schemes the wrong coverages for what his front 7 is doing. You will ignore all that because you don't agree with it like usual.

[Master Blaster]

I don't disagree that there's a lack of talent. I also think that our scheme may be technically sound, but our playcalls aren't well timed and we don't utilize the personnel that we have efficiently enough.

This.

I learned the Pittsburgh-style 3-4 from Tim Tibesar, who went on to coach at Kansas State, then in the CFL (winning 2 Grey Cups), and is now the DC of Purdue. Very, very intelligent coach and his defenses were always some of the best in the nation. After he left, we had a new coach that ran the same defense, but did not get the same results. It is hard to explain to someone who hasn't been in it, but the rhythm of play-calling and the choices of what to run when just did not flow. It is a game of chess. Some coaches know this and can call the right plays at the right time. Others can't grasp that concept and we as players were left scratching our heads as to why a specific play was called. There was nothing wrong with the scheme, as we ran the same scheme under both coaches. It simply comes down to mastering the scheme, understanding when to use what calls, and putting your players in a position to succeed. I should point out that Tibesar scored MENSA on an IQ test, so that probably didn't hurt his ability to master the scheme/calls.

[rk3025]

Was surprised that Eagles Offense have turn over after turn over and still are in the top 1/3 in defense; so they fire the Defensive Coordinator?

Let's stay together as a team and work for a win; we have already won three and some thought 2 wins was yearly projection.

[Lavarleap56]

This.

I learned the Pittsburgh-style 3-4 from Tim Tibesar, who went on to coach at Kansas State, then in the CFL (winning 2 Grey Cups), and is now the DC of Purdue. Very, very intelligent coach and his defenses were always some of the best in the nation. After he left, we had a new coach that ran the same defense, but did not get the same results. It is hard to explain to someone who hasn't been in it, but the rhythm of play-calling and the choices of what to run when just did not flow. It is a game of chess. Some coaches know this and can call the right plays at the right time. Others can't grasp that concept and we as players were left scratching our heads as to why a specific play was called. There was nothing wrong with the scheme, as we ran the same scheme under both coaches. It simply comes down to mastering the scheme, understanding when to use what calls, and putting your players in a position to succeed. I should point out that Tibesar scored MENSA on an IQ test, so that probably didn't hurt his ability to master the scheme/calls.

I don't think anyone is saying the LeBeau scheme is a issue at all. How Haslett has treated and runs the scheme is a problem like you have said above. If you give 100 people a playbook its almost a lock they will all use it differently. We need a 3-4 coach who was brought up in the LeBeau 3-4 to truly have the impact in this defense we are looking for.

[Koolblue13]

I don't think anyone is saying the LeBeau scheme is a issue at all. How Haslett has treated and runs the scheme is a problem like you have said above. If you give 100 people a playbook its almost a lock they will all use it differently. We need a 3-4 coach who was brought up in the LeBeau 3-4 to truly have the impact in this defense we are looking for.

Who would you suggest fits that mold? I know Morris doesn't.

[Skinz4Life12]

burnt toast secondary is our problem. don't know if its coaching or talent or both

[RedskinParadigm]

My statement was 100% true..

Atogwe was injured and not effective for 3/4s of the season . Laron was injured and played one good half of football in 2011 then regressed until he went on IR. Kevin Barnes was beat like a drum playing in the slot. Doughty & Gomes played a ton last year at FS, SS just like they have this year. New safety coach I will give you that but anyone is a upgrade over Jackson. Tough for the players to respect and listen to a guy that partied with them on a regular basis.

Here's my issue with your statement:

In 2011:

When Landry played, this defense allowed 20.0 points per game.

When Landry did not play, this defense allowed 25.9 points per game.

When Atogwe played, this defense allowed 22.7 points per game.

When Atogwe did not play, this defense allowed 24.0 points per game.

When both Landry and Atogwe played, this defense allowed 17.6 points per game.

When at least one of them were missing, this defense allowed 25.4 points per game.

Statistically, that's a very strong correlation between secondary personnel and success (as judged by points allowed). When either DeJon Gomes or Reed Doughty was inserted into the starting lineup, this defense allowed almost 8 points per game more than when they were merely reserves. That's statistically significant.

So while, yes, Doughty and Gomes played a lot in 2011, the defensive production with them in the lineup was not significantly better than what we're seeing right now. To me, that screams of personnel issues.

And of course, just to be clear, that doesn't mean I'm absolving Haslett's role in all of this. He's certainly a big factor too.

[RandyHolt]

Todd Bowles in for the Eagles. I have long thought Castillo sucked so I am sad to see him go.

How Haslet runs his D has to be in perfect unison with what we are going to do with III on offense. If we keep letting III try to score on every drive, he can take risks. He just needs to vary his risk taking, and not be so predictable.

[Lavarleap56]

Who would you suggest fits that mold? I know Morris doesn't.

Lou Spanos or Darren Perry off the top of my head.

---------- Post added October-16th-2012 at 04:13 PM ----------

Here's my issue with your statement:

In 2011:

When Landry played, this defense allowed 20.0 points per game.

When Landry did not play, this defense allowed 25.9 points per game.

When Atogwe played, this defense allowed 22.7 points per game.

When Atogwe did not play, this defense allowed 24.0 points per game.

When both Landry and Atogwe played, this defense allowed 17.6 points per game.

When at least one of them were missing, this defense allowed 25.4 points per game.

Statistically, that's a very strong correlation between secondary personnel and success (as judged by points allowed). When either DeJon Gomes or Reed Doughty was inserted into the starting lineup, this defense allowed almost 8 points per game more than when they were merely reserves. That's statistically significant.

So while, yes, Doughty and Gomes played a lot in 2011, the defensive production with them in the lineup was not significantly better than what we're seeing right now. To me, that screams of personnel issues.

And of course, just to be clear, that doesn't mean I'm absolving Haslett's role in all of this. He's certainly a big factor too.

Statistically that is not a strong correlation and it's more of a reach using numbers. Using the same logic you could say the defense performs the same without Rak and Adam since we give up roughly the same amount of points in their absence..

[Lavarleap56]

Here's my issue with your statement:

In 2011:

When Landry played, this defense allowed 20.0 points per game.

When Landry did not play, this defense allowed 25.9 points per game.

When Atogwe played, this defense allowed 22.7 points per game.

When Atogwe did not play, this defense allowed 24.0 points per game.

When both Landry and Atogwe played, this defense allowed 17.6 points per game.

When at least one of them were missing, this defense allowed 25.4 points per game.

Statistically, that's a very strong correlation between secondary personnel and success (as judged by points allowed). When either DeJon Gomes or Reed Doughty was inserted into the starting lineup, this defense allowed almost 8 points per game more than when they were merely reserves. That's statistically significant.

So while, yes, Doughty and Gomes played a lot in 2011, the defensive production with them in the lineup was not significantly better than what we're seeing right now. To me, that screams of personnel issues.

And of course, just to be clear, that doesn't mean I'm absolving Haslett's role in all of this. He's certainly a big factor too.

Statistically that is not a strong correlation and it's more of a reach using numbers. Using the same logic you could say the defense performs the same without Rak and Adam since we give up roughly the same amount of points in their absence.. You also can't just use games started since there were some games started that were not finished.

Can also respond with Landry and Atogwe were more talented players who when on the field covered up play calling issues. I have never said this secondary is talented as hell in its current form. They are good enough to not allow 400+ yards and 30 points a game. There is a reason Haslett was chillin in the usfl with no phone calls so let's not forget that.

[Koolblue13]

Lou Spanos or Darren Perry off the top of my head..

Perry would be interesting. I'd love to see him help Hall with a transition to Safety down the road.

[RedskinParadigm]

Statistically that is not a strong correlation and it's more of a reach using numbers. Using the same logic you could say the defense performs the same without Rak and Adam since we give up roughly the same amount of points in their absence..

While conceptually true, the sample size for Landry and Atogwe in 2011 is 800% and 1300% larger than Orakpo and Carriker in 2012. The statistical power for Rak/Carriker renders any statistical analysis meaningless for 2012. That's not true of the 2011 season (although the power is small).

And statistically it is a strong correlation.

[Lavarleap56]

While conceptually true, the sample size for Landry and Atogwe in 2011 is 800% and 1300% larger than Orakpo and Carriker in 2012. The statistical power for Rak/Carriker renders any statistical analysis meaningless for 2012. That's not true of the 2011 season (although the power is small).

And statistically it is a strong correlation.

What do you mean.. Defense has been performing the same for the past what 14 games? Adam and Rak played in all 4 of those games. That is a big sample size.

---------- Post added October-16th-2012 at 04:35 PM ----------

Perry would be interesting. I'd love to see him help Hall with a transition to Safety down the road.

I actually like Perry a lot..

---------- Post added October-16th-2012 at 04:39 PM ----------

I'm gonna post a bunch of LeBeau stuff later on that clears a lot of things up..

[RedskinParadigm]

What do you mean.. Defense has been performing the same for the past what 14 games? Adam and Rak played in all 4 of those games. That is a big sample size.

Fair enough, but if you were to do the same analysis on Carriker and Orakpo, you'd have to go back and include every game in which they've played together, not stop at just the last 14 games. My guess is if you include all games since the start of 2011, you'd see a positive correlation between Orakpo and Carriker starting and points allowed per game, considering the ppg in the last 5 games is higher than the (ppg of 2011 + week 1 of 2012).