How does RG3 compare to other QB prospects coming out of college over the past 10 years?

[MartinC]

How many did you actually watch? Jones didn't throw a TD after his #1 receiver went down and he had a better team around him (OL and WR) than either of the other guys. Jones is a joke and shouldn't EVER play in the NFL. That guy has bust written all over him.

He was talking about Weedon at OK Sate not Jones at OK

[jflow78]

ESPN Insider has a list of every player drafted over the past 9 years, with numerical grades.

Looking at that list, the only guys who look like they didn't pan out were the ones that ended up not being very committed to football, are on horrible teams and still have the potential to end up being very good, or haven't been drafted yet.

Andrew Luck (not drafted yet)

Matt Leinart (questionable commitment)

JeMarcus Russell (no commitment)

Sam Bradford (horrible team so far)

Rober Griffin (not drafted yet)

Brady Quinn (questionable commitment)

Blaine Gabbert (not sure, didn't watch Jags this year, but I'd say bad team)

Brian Brohm (he was overrated and just stinks)

Cam Newton (horrible team)

---------- Post added March-11th-2012 at 09:16 AM ----------

He was talking about Weedon at OK Sate not Jones at OK

In his original post he'd said both Weedon and Jones were better than RG3. Anyway, I was late to the party. That's what being sick for the weekend gets you.

[TheGreek1973]

Shannys system is based on the WCO. The play design, route combinations and footwork are right out of Bill Walsh's system. Mike was the OC at the 49ers under Sieffert running the same system Walsh had developed there. It is based off a timing based rythym passing game predicated on precise footwork and mainly 3 and 5 step drops.

Steve Young was Shannys QB and then Elway when he became HC at the Broncos. What Mike did to adjust his scheme from what Walsh did with Montana was two things mainly - he changed the read progressions from short/deep to deep/short and he took advantage of Young and Elways athletic ability to use the boot action of play action and moved his QBs more than Walsh had with Montana. He was also more run heavy as a play caller than Walsh to make the play action more effective.

But yes believe it or not our offensive system is based on the WCO. Not all WCO are the same.

I know what you are saying but lets be honest its not WCO. Like you said is run heavy, play action, bootleg, look to attack down field. Now we can call it whatever but its nothing like the traditional WCO offense.

[Geneva]

I'm sure this has been discussed in multiple threads but could not find a good comparative listing. Luck has been called the best prospect since Peyton Manning. Where does RG3 fall on that list? My question is not so much what they did in the NFL, but more hypothetical if all the QBs of the past 10 years were in this years draft - how would they be rated?

I like Cam Newton. He will be around for a long time and can pass and run the ball. Carolina made a very good pick last year. I like RG3 as well so it will be interesting to see how all this plays out in 2012. I would have picked RG3 over Luck myself, so I'm very happy. Only time will tell.

[MartinC]

I know what you are saying but lets be honest its not WCO. Like you said is run heavy, play action, bootleg, look to attack down field. Now we can call it whatever but its nothing like the traditional WCO offense.

The point is it IS a WCO based system in terms of the footwork and route combinations. RGIII is going to have to learn the footwork and reads which are new to him.

[bird_1972]

Yea, Luck is the best prospect since (Peyton) Manning. RGIII is probably around 10th or so over the last 10 years in terms of his NFL readiness and potential. He didnt play in a pro system (or a particularly sophisticated college one), he DID play in a conference that doesnt play much defense, he was the 3rd best passer in that conference behind Weeden and Landry Jones. He wasn't required to make any intermediate throws, everything was either bombs to stretch the defense or short passes and screens (im not saying he can't, im saying its a question mark that other guys didnt have). He is incredibly exciting, but exciting isn't necessarily the best asset for a NFL QB.

Based on this description, I assume you view RG3 as not the prospect that many at ES do.

[MartinC]

In his original post he'd said both Weedon and Jones were better than RG3. Anyway, I was late to the party. That's what being sick for the weekend gets you.

Actually you probably picked a good weekend to be sick - an awful lot of people got very excited and ran around screaming.

[bird_1972]

I tend to agree. It's the reason many would actually choose him over Andrew Luck, supposedly the best prospect since Elway.

The reason Luck is considered the best prospect since Elway may be because he is more easily comparable with successful QBs we've seen play for years so it's more "apples to apples" and easier to make that claim.

RG3 is a bit of a different beast - if we've never seen a QB with his set of skills come out, we can't really determine where he falls on our 2-dimensional QB continuum.

[PleaseBlitz]

Brees played in a spread under Jeff Tiller, one of the great minds in the development of spread offense.

Rivers played in a spread.

Romo sits to pee played in a spread.

Flacco played in spread.

I think people overrate how much the pro-ready QBs are "ready" compared to spread guys - if you examine Tannehill's offense at A&M for example, I can't call it significantly more complex than that of RGIII's.

Also, don't lie and say you've watched games because while he does get a lot of YAC, he hits guys perfectly downfield on a regular basis.

Brees and Rivers were not in systems where they lined up in shotgun on every play. Rivers' especially at NC State was not in a shotgun spread offense. I never say Romo sits to pee or Flacco play in college since they werent on TV. I doubt you did either.

And yes, I watched a ton of Big 12 and Baylor games last season. Sure, he hit long passes on a regular basis, but no more than any other decent QB in the country. What I said was that 80% of the passes he threw were short dinks and screens. Do you really want to say that isnt true?

---------- Post added March-11th-2012 at 12:49 PM ----------

Based on this description, I assume you view RG3 as not the prospect that many at ES do.

I think RGIII could be really good, but i certainly don't view him as a "can't miss" prospect, like he has become on this message board in the last 48 hours. I'm just stating some facts that people seem to want to ignore because they are so excited to finally be getting a QB. Also, saying someone is the 3rd best passer in the Big 12 isnt really a put-down since it is the conference with the best passers and doesn't take into account his other assets like his athleticism and his smarts.

I definitely think he is worth a high first round pick. I just dont think he is worth 3 of them, which is what the Skins paid for him.

---------- Post added March-11th-2012 at 12:51 PM ----------

In his original post he'd said both Weedon and Jones were better than RG3. Anyway, I was late to the party. That's what being sick for the weekend gets you.

I said they were better passers. There is a difference between "better passer" and "better player." I realize that nuance is not the strong suit for ES.

[The Robert Griffin Experience]

Brees and Rivers were not in systems where they lined up in shotgun on every play. Rivers' especially at NC State was not in a shotgun spread offense. I never say Romo sits to pee or Flacco play in college since they werent on TV. I doubt you did either.

Uh, excuse me?

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5104974643621688992

Yeah, lots of dropback passing from Rivers here.

And you're trying to argue Brees wasn't in a spread? His coach pretty much INVENTED the modern shotgun spread. Maybe find me a vid where Brees is spending a significant amount of time dropping back from under center.

And yes, I watched a ton of Big 12 and Baylor games last season. Sure, he hit long passes on a regular basis, but no more than any other decent QB in the country. What I said was that 80% of the passes he threw were short dinks and screens. Do you really want to say that isnt true?

Uh, considering that his passes had more "air yards" than Luck or Weeden, calling him a "dink-and-dunk" passer is a misrepresentation. Yes, the WR screen and the short pass is a big part of their game plan, but that doesn't mean that's all he can do.

And uh, find someone else coming out this year who hit deep passes with the regularity that RGIII did.

I think RGIII could be really good, but i certainly don't view him as a "can't miss" prospect, like he has become on this message board in the last 48 hours. I'm just stating some facts that people seem to want to ignore because they are so excited to finally be getting a QB. Also, saying someone is the 3rd best passer in the Big 12 isnt really a put-down since it is the conference with the best passers and doesn't take into account his other assets like his athleticism and his smarts.

3rd best passer by what standard? He had almost as many yards on far fewer attempts than either Weeden or Jones. RGIII threw for nearly 11 yards an attempt. And with some of the worst talent in the country compared to the clean pockets and future Pro Bowl WRs Weeden and Jones had to work with.

I said they were better passers. There is a difference between "better passer" and "better player." I realize that nuance is not the strong suit for ES.

And yet you used "Better passer" as a knock against RGIII (and a weak one at that).

[PleaseBlitz]

Uh, excuse me?

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5104974643621688992

Yeah, lots of dropback passing from Rivers here.

And you're trying to argue Brees wasn't in a spread? His coach pretty much INVENTED the modern shotgun spread. Maybe find me a vid where Brees is spending a significant amount of time dropping back from under center.

Here you go.

Uh, considering that his passes had more "air yards" than Luck or Weeden, calling him a "dink-and-dunk" passer is a misrepresentation. Yes, the WR screen and the short pass is a big part of their game plan, but that doesn't mean that's all he can do.

I didnt say that's all he can do, i said thats a lot of what he did do. Can you post the link to your "air yards" please?

And uh, find someone else coming out this year who hit deep passes with the regularity that RGIII did.

How about i just list all of the college QB's that hit more passes over 10 yards than RGIII?

Keenum: 202

Weeden: 187

Foles: 179

Landry Jones: 177

Geno Smith: 176

Osweiler: 175

Kellen Moore: 157

Alex Carder: 156

Tajh Boyd: 155

Tyler Wilson: 153

RGIII: 152

This does not account for YAC, so it isnt a perfect measurement, but its all i can find and I would bet that accounting for YAC would drop RGIII rather than help him.

3rd best passer by what standard? He had almost as many yards on far fewer attempts than either Weeden or Jones. RGIII threw for nearly 11 yards an attempt. And with some of the worst talent in the country compared to the clean pockets and future Pro Bowl WRs Weeden and Jones had to work with.

Man, watch the games and just look at those 3 QB's and how they generated the yards.

And yet you used "Better passer" as a knock against RGIII (and a weak one at that).

I used it to differentiate between pure passing ability and the other aspects that made RGIII great in college, namely his athleticism, which is amazing, and his leadership as a QB, which is also great.

I do not think that RGIII is a bad player. I think he's great. I just don't think he's as great as a lot of people on ES have made him in the last 48 hours. In the last 2 days he's gone from a nice prospect to the best QB prospect EVER, even though he isnt even the best QB prospect this year.

[pimpumd]

Can you post the link to your "air yards" please?

It was already posted in this thread when another poster corrected you (post #56). But here it is:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/web/COM1195358/4/index.htm

Your list of 10 yards passes is absolutely worthless, too. Weeden attempted 162 more passes than RG3, so I'd expect to him to have 30 or so more 10+ yard passes.

[PleaseBlitz]

It was already posted in this thread when another poster corrected you (post #56). But here it is:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/web/COM1195358/4/index.htm

Your list of 10 yards passes is absolutely worthless, too. Weeden attempted 162 more passes than RG3, so I'd expect to him to have 30 or so more 10+ yard passes.

I didnt see that link. I'm watching Baylor's bowl game again right now. So far my impressions are not changing much, but RGIII is ridiculous.

And my list of 10 yard passes included more than just Weeden.

[pimpumd]

And my list of 10 yard passes included more than just Weeden.

Obviously. My point was, just looking at 10 yard passes without any context is pointless. I wasn't going to check the passing attempts for everyone you listed, but since you compared RG3 specifically to Weeden and Jones, I quickly looked up one of your choices - Weeden.

[PleaseBlitz]

Obviously. My point was, just looking at 10 yard passes without any context is pointless. I wasn't going to check the passing attempts for everyone you listed, but since you compared RG3 specifically to Weeden and Jones, I quickly looked up one of your choices - Weeden.

Yep, i understand. I dont think football is a game that lends itself very well to stats like baseball does. Of course Weeden and Keenum and to a lesser extent Geno Smith are going to have WAY more passing attempts than others b/c they are all in the same system that runs 80 plays a game and should therefore have more completions of every distance. The poster i was replying to said "show me X" so i showed him X.

[IrepDC]

Is RGIII's footwork from under center really a weakness, or is it just something that he hasn't done often so it becomes a question? I'm not an expert when it comes to footwork so I wouldn't know. I did watch all his games, though, and when Baylor put him under center, it was a play action pass 90% of the time, and the throws were accurate. In my amateur opinion, he needs more experience in that area, but it didn't seem like a weakness for him in college.

[terpskins10]

How about i just list all of the college QB's that hit more passes over 10 yards than RGIII?

This does not account for YAC, so it isnt a perfect measurement, but its all i can find and I would bet that accounting for YAC would drop RGIII rather than help him.

I'd love to see if you could break down these numbers by percentage of attempts overall. I'm not sure what that would accomplish just yet, but I think it'd paint a cleaner picture.

Eh screw it, I'll just do it real quick.

Keenum: 33 percent

Weeden: 33 percent

Foles: 32 percent

Landry Jones 31 percent

Geno Smith 33 percent

Osweiler 34 percent

Kellen Moore 36 percent

Alex Carder 31 percent

Tajh Boyd 31 percent

Tyler Wilson 35 percent

RGIII 38 percent

I think this paints a little better picture.

[U C S D SkinsFan]

Forget stats..go watch a game of Landry Jones and RG3. You will never bring that argument up again. Weeden is a good QB, not as dynamic as RG3, but very good...if he wasn't going to be 29 as a rookie, I think he'd be a top 10 pick. Can't wait to see this guy dominate in a system that is PERFECT for his talents

[terpskins10]

Obviously. My point was, just looking at 10 yard passes without any context is pointless. I wasn't going to check the passing attempts for everyone you listed, but since you compared RG3 specifically to Weeden and Jones, I quickly looked up one of your choices - Weeden.

I broke them down if you want to look at them. See a couple posts up.

[GTSkinsFan]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/player/_/id/28956/robert-griffin-iii

Robert Griffin III

Quarterback

97 SCOUTS GRADE

Intangibles 1 "A well-rounded individual. Was raised in a military family. Excellent student. Graduated in December 2010 with a degree in political science and has aspirations of attending law school. Is mature and humble. Has great personal discipline. Also has a very good work ethic. Is mentally prepared to handle rigors of being a starting quarterback at the NFL level. Ultra-competitive. Can rub his teammates the wrong way at times, but the same can be said of most elite quarterbacks. Winner of the 2011 Heisman Trophy. Also was a member of the Baylor track team during his true freshman year (2008) and won the Big 12 400-meter hurdles on his way to being named an All-American."

---------- Post added March-11th-2012 at 12:27 AM ----------

[/color]Hopefully that doesn't look too cluttered

This struck me a bit as odd, I've never heard of this. Has anyone ever read anything that agrees with this?

(Hard to see the bold with this forums font, referring specifically to the 'rubs teammates the wrong way at times')

[Destino]

I watched enough big 12 to laugh at Jones being compared to RG3. No one was high on him after this season and most suggested he stay in school to have another chance to impress NFL scouts (because he was poised to fall in this draft). Which he did.

Read the scouting reports on Weeden and then watch the tape. His footwork was inconsistent and it causes him to throw badly.

[Ghost of]

Here you go.

Uh, that video clip shows a vast majority, like VAST majority of snaps from shotgun and a couple of designed runs for Brees. Brees, having seen him operate in person, took the vast majority of his snaps in the shotgun. THat offense was known for spreading the field with receivers and using that formation. The clip you posted, I saw before I even read that post of yours, and though he does have a few under center snaps, most of those plays were different than pass plays and the vast majority of total snaps came from shotgun.

"I just don't think he's as great as a lot of people on ES have made him in the last 48 hours."

Uhhh, have you been on this board for more than the last 48 hours. Whatever your opinion, you can't dispute that this is much longer running than 48 hours. It's why we TRADED UP to get him and it goes beyond fans into professional scouts and media.

WTF, dude?

---------- Post added March-12th-2012 at 01:14 AM ----------

Iwhen Baylor put him under center, it was a play action pass 90% of the time, and the throws were accurate. In my amateur opinion, he needs more experience in that area, but it didn't seem like a weakness for him in college.

Interesting that you say that because the Brees@Purdue clip that PB posted as evidence that Brees did not take shotgun snaps exclusively, shows Brees in PA or naked boot plays. He is not doing "traditional" drop backs when under center.