Shanahan's Jedi Mind Tricks II: Sex Cannon in dead heat with Admiral Checkdown? Shanahan deserves Coach of the Year, if not an Oscar

[GWinSkins83]

A lot of Grossman hate, which stems from the major media outlets like ESPN.

You dont need to have ESPN to SEE that Grossman is not a good QB. We seen that in three games last year. I truely think that this system can look very adverage QB look like they are world beaters.

[ouvan59]

.

The Rule of 3

Here's something you probably didn't know. If your QB averages 3 or more passes per drive for the game, you have better than even odds of winning the game. If your QB averages 2.5 or fewer passes per drive, you are likely to lose the game.

One mark of a winning QB is the ability to sustain drives through passing, thereby giving more attempts per drive. Even teams that run a lot still give their QBs opportunities to extend drives. If the QB is good, he'll complete those passes. The "running" team ends up with fewer drives per game (due to ball-control rush offense), but the QB still averages 3 or more passes per possession. If he doesn't, the offense is unbalanced and is easier to stop.

At this point, the Beck-heads are leaping out of their chairs with their hands up. "Beck sustains drives better than Grossman! Beck runs a ball-control offense better than Grossman!" Hold that thought.

Let's look at this weekend's games. There are two groups of QBs:

Group 1:

• Bradford
  
• Brady
  
• Cutler
  
• Dalton
  
• Freeman
  
• Garrard
  
• Grossman
  
• Hasselbeck
  
• Kolb
  
• McCoy
  
• McNabb
  
• Rivers
  
• Rodgers
  
• Ryan
  
• Schaub
  
• Vick
  
• Fitzpatrick
  

Group 2:

• Beck (1.5)
  
• Henne (2.0)
  
• Newton (2.4)
  
• Painter (2.3)
  
• Smith (1.5)
  
• Stafford (2.3)
  

So, what's the difference between the groups?

• Group 1: Averaged 3.0 or more passes per drive, against starting defenses
  
• Group 2: Averaged 2.5 or fewer passes per drive, against starting defenses
  

Looking at the QBs, you'd rather pick from Group 1 than Group 2, right? Exactly.

John Beck tied with Alex Smith for worst in the NFL, with 1.5 passes per drive. Small sample size, I realize, but this is the only sample we've got. Any time you're matching Alex Smith for performance is time for concern.

Rex Grossman vs Ravens? 3.8

How about all of their appearances against starting defenses? Wouldn't that be more fair?

Not really, because Beck faced the Colts, while Grossman faced the Steelers previously. But, sure, let's increase our sample size and see what happens.

Beck vs starting defenses (Ravens, Colts):

• 7 drives
  
• 20 attempts
  
• 2.9 attempts per drive
  

Grossman vs starting defenses (Ravens, Steelers):

• 9 drives
  
• 41 attempts
  
• 4.6 attempts per drive
  

This is a very major difference.

This is comedy at it's finest. John Beck sucks because he threw only two passes on two TOUCHDOWN drives. This is absolute desperation.

Here are Beck's drives in the preseason

1. 6 plays, 2 passes, 80 yds, 2:53 TOUCHDOWN

2. 13 plays, 6 passes, 45 yds, 6:53 FG Would have been 7 but he was sacked.

3. 9 plays, 2 passes 74 yds, 5:21 FG There were two other passes called, one a sack, one scrambled for a 1st down

4. 15 plays, 6 passes 84 yds, 7:12 FG There were two other passes called, one a sack, one scrambled for a 1st down

5. 2 plays, 2 passes -4 yds, 0:50 Half

6. 4 plays, 2 passes, 70 yds, 0:39 TOUCHDOWN

7. 5 plays, 2 passes, 11 yds, 1:40 Punt

8. 1 play, 1 pass, 0 yds, 0:16 Interception

9. 12 plays, 6 passes, 1 scramble, 97 yards, 6:21 TOUCHDOWN

So we have scores on 6 of his 9 possessions. I do find it funny that you omit Grossman's performance against the Colts under the guise that it was against backups but he threw only 2 passes in each of those drives. Your last attempt at subterfuge was much more clever. This is just pathetic.

[whatmeworry]

Agree 1000% OP is trying his own Jedi mind tricks,

Since when does being "creative and well-thought out" make up for a bunch of biased bullcrap? He could basically says "lol, John Beck sucks, we should start Rex because Rex is awesome!" and it would have the same overall effect. That's all he's saying. He's manufactured a bunch of facts and figures, created his own incomprehensible formulas, and pretty much ignores any sort of factual analysis to prove a point. Being lengthy and well researched does not negate the fact that what he's saying amounts to the same sort of "lol, Beck is teh suxxors" posts that people with less time on their hands say.

It's fine if he doesn't like John Beck and wants Rex to start. But let's quit pretending there's some sort of factual, reality based reason for it. The fact that he's still calling him Admiral Checkdown after he uncorked a deep throw three straight times and threw a lot more intermediate routes and fewer checkdowns invalidates his argument.

He doesn't like Beck. He likes Rex. No need for a five hours worth the research and number crunching and long drawn out posts. It's okay to just not like someone sometimes.

[bowhunter]

I just want to see a winning Quarterback. I do not care if it is Quarterback "A," Quarterback "B" or Chris Nieldt. Regardless of which QB our coach chooses to take the field for us, I WILL SUPPORT FULLY. (I'd just rather it be Quarterback "B")

[TK]

You had me at Jedi Mind Trick. :tk:

I loved you at "a Jim Kelly no huddle fast tempo attack the Giants" offense.

Thing is though, you can still make a case for either QB. And having two guys compenent enough to run the O isn't a bad thing. Especially if one becomes trade bait like Reid has done the last two years.

[GhostofSparta]

edited for brevity.

I agree with almost everything you said. The knock on Grossman is basically his Jekyll/Hyde playing style. When Good Rex shows up, he's damn near unstoppable. When Bad Rex shows up, the '85 Bears D would have their work cut out for them.

I agree Grossman can be good. I agree that Grossman is a better QB than Beck, and he gives us a better chance to win as a result. I just don't like the term "elite." We're just arguing over semantics, but I feel that it's a major quibble as a result. Sexy Rexy has elite-like games and tendencies, but for whatever reason he's never had the chance to establish it over a sustained period. That's a huge red flag to me, obviously not as much to you. I think that's where our difference lies. You see that Grossman can be a Gannon or a Brad Johnson, I'm just more skeptical.

I don't view QB B as better than QB A, I just don't see QB A turning into QB C. Call it a gut reaction, call it being a pessimist because of the last oh....20 years of this franchise, but I see Grossman leading a team that had the NFL worst D last year and knowing that if Bad Rex shows up enough we'll be lucky to get to 8 wins. And I'm not putting my eggs in the "Grossman will lead us to the promised land!" basket. The same guy that beats the Ravens and Steelers D throws a pick into triple coverage against Indy's scrubs.

But none of this is an endorsement of Beck. The thought of Beck starting scares the **** out of me. I just feel like you're giving Rexy waaaaaaaay too much credit to make the point that he's better than Beck. Lots of good work and statistics to say what you want, but I still feel you're giving the Sex Cannon more credit than he's worthy of 5 years and how many starts after a SB run?

[skinfan2k]

Beck has 0 touchdowns in the redone. Hightower literally carried him in the colts and ravens game. 2 drives are completely eliminated because he did absolutely nothing on those drives. Also, why isn't Grossman getting credit for the 13 pts that he put up, albeit 2 missed FGs. not his fault.

People argue how Beck doesn't have a lot of passing attempts while Rex does. Well, Rex keeps drives always and thats how you can keep the ball and the # of passes in his decision. he had 9 passes on that 2 minute drill before that only 6 total on 3 drives while beck had 3 on 2 drives.

[ouvan59]

Beck has 0 touchdowns in the redone. Hightower literally carried him in the colts and ravens game. 2 drives are completely eliminated because he did absolutely nothing on those drives. Also, why isn't Grossman getting credit for the 13 pts that he put up, albeit 2 missed FGs. not his fault.

People argue how Beck doesn't have a lot of passing attempts while Rex does. Well, Rex keeps drives always and thats how you can keep the ball and the # of passes in his decision. he had 9 passes on that 2 minute drill before that only 6 total on 3 drives while beck had 3 on 2 drives.

Actually Beck has one redzone touchdown pass and Grossman has one redzone touchdown pass. And Beck should have had another but Sellers was tripped on his first drive against Indy. Frankly, I think both have been very good. These attempts to shoot either one down get really tiresome. I just can't believe anybody can watch either one and what they've accomplished this preseason and be anything but pleased. I'll be fine with either starting and I couldn't say that two weeks ago.

[Skins81a]

These posts are worthless, just some guy that thinks he is an expert attempting to be a Kiper wannabe when really its obvious and worthless info. We are done if we get too many Injuries...really...no kidding...you just described every team in the NFL. ES is so picky about thread starters but continue to let this nonsense continue. This post really falls under "who cares what you think..who are you". I guess I will start a Beck deserves the job thread. Sorry I just hate people that act like experts and act like nobody else watches the games or knows as much as them when it comes to the NFL, mean while everybody thinks they know everything.

[paulb3rd]

Every team in the NFL is a couple of injuries away from having a crap season.

How good are the colts without Peyton?

What happens to the Pats if Brady goes down?

Dude, a little friendly advice. Your post is way too long. I got about two paragraphs into it and my head started spinning.

[Joe is king]

If Rex is going to be the starter don’t you think he would play more snaps against the number ones? Rex played the ones in Pittsburg due to injury and then played the twos in Indy (a different style of D.) Shanahan will do what gives the team the best chance to win. I think it is as simple as he doesn’t know who the starter will be.

[TheRookie]

These posts are worthless, just some guy that thinks he is an expert attempting to be a Kiper wannabe when really its obvious and worthless info. We are done if we get too many Injuries...really...no kidding...you just described every team in the NFL. ES is so picky about thread starters but continue to let this nonsense continue. This post really falls under "who cares what you think..who are you". I guess I will start a Beck deserves the job thread. Sorry I just hate people that act like experts and act like nobody else watches the games or knows as much as them when it comes to the NFL, mean while everybody thinks they know everything.

I think I understand some of your frustration here. At the same time, though, I don't have an issue with ASF's posts even though I don't agree with him on this issue. It's a message board. We're here to post our opinions. It's not journalism and there's no expectation of "fair and balanced" reporting. Do I wish ASF would do a better job of weighing both sides, introducing arguments for both guys, not only producing numbers that support his conclusions? Sure, and I think people would take his arguments more seriously because of it.

At the same time, though, he can state his case the way he likes. If anyone disagrees, there's nothing to stop them from stating their own viewpoint whether it be in this thread or your own like you mentioned. I thinks it's a nice change that he adds a little creativity and puts it in a somewhat entertaining format. Don't take it personally. He knows that everyone's not going to agree with him and I'm sure he acknowledges that he could be wrong (just as you or I might be) whether that comes across in the tone of the OP or not.

[skinfan2k]

Actually Beck has one redzone touchdown pass and Grossman has one redzone touchdown pass. And Beck should have had another but Sellers was tripped on his first drive against Indy. Frankly, I think both have been very good. These attempts to shoot either one down get really tiresome. I just can't believe anybody can watch either one and what they've accomplished this preseason and be anything but pleased. I'll be fine with either starting and I couldn't say that two weeks ago.

in fact the best solution going forward is with Rex to win right now and set up this team to give the keys to the franchise to the rookie we get in 2012. Unless we want to complete **** which i don't think Shanny wants it to be

[SWFLSkins]

God I need a minute...

[elkabong82]

Funny thing is, aside from the conspiracy theory, that some of the people who used to say faults in coaching, coordinating, and player personnel were just excuses for poor QB play use those same things to defend Grossman in all the current QB threads. It seems context only matters to some when it's "their" QB being discussed.

The short version of my observations:

Grossman is a gun slinger, he's Jekyll and Hyde, he can lead a team to victory but also be the cause for defeat, he has a quick release which makes up for his slowness in the pocket, his throws are usually good, but it seems every game he plays is marred with a couple of pretty bad throws and/or decisions. I feel if most things went his way that Grossman could gain a comfort level and be more consistent/shed the Hyde part. However, I also feel that up against a top D that he'd revert to Hyde form. I'm comfortable with him as the starter for a rebuilding Redskins team. I wouldn't be as much if the team was annually in contention.

Beck has mobility, is not as accurate on the deep ball as Grossman, but more accurate on every other throw. Beck's throw selection does not seem as limited as Grossman's. Beck can lead a drive down the field consistently, but Grossman gives you a better "homerun" threat, though he'll kill drives also. Beck keep a better tempo going than Grossman. I wouldn't say Beck is solely a game manager, but that does seem to be his strong suit. For a Kyle Shanahan offense, reliant on tempo, continuing drives and maintaining posession, I'd personally go with Beck.

To make a crude, "on the surface" style comparison, I'd say Grossman is Rypien and Beck is Theismann.

I'm very glad that both QBs have looked good overall, and that while my preference is Beck, I know I'll be happy overall with either QB starting. Both have their own merits, and I think people trying to sell either one short/ as a much inferior QB to the other, is letting bias get in the way of sound judgement.

[GSF]

Hey ASF, you can lead the sheep to water, but you can't make them drink...and there are a lot of sheep in here.

[tibbidoe]

Hey ASF, you can lead the sheep to water, but you can't make them drink...and there are a lot of sheep in here.

You seem to know a lot about sheep...

Just because someone doesn't agree with you (or any other poster here) doesn't make them sheep, or dumb, or any less intelligent than you (or any other poster here).

[elkabong82]

Hey ASF, you can lead the sheep to water, but you can't make them drink...and there are a lot of sheep in here.

You're agreeing with the premise that Shanny waited to sign Rex as long clever ruse to fool opposing teams and that Beck is only being given easy chances to make him look close to as good as Rex to further confuse opponents. And you're calling those who disagree with ASF sheep? I guess that would make those in agreement lemmings following him off the cliff?

[DavidGQ]

I dont care if Grossman or Beck win. But you are so much better than Jason Reid ASF

[GSF]

You're agreeing with the premise that Shanny waited to sign Rex as long clever ruse to fool opposing teams and that Beck is only being given easy chances to make him look close to as good as Rex to further confuse opponents. And you're calling those who disagree with ASF sheep? I guess that would make those in agreement lemmings following him off the cliff?

No, I'm referring to the many ESers who are convinced Beck is really Mike's guy just because they read it in here.

I don't agree with everything ASF says, but i've loved his thread for years because he's an out of the box thinker who doesn't just believe what he's told.

[TSO]

ASF's threads (especially the last few about our QB situation) are like the National Enquirer to me. Extremely entertaining, crazy, but well written... and chock full of bull**** though many truths are presented.

He definitely raises some interesting points, though, like the "passes per drive" thing... though one notable name is missing there: Drew Brees. Which group was he in, ASF? Or should I even ask, lol?

I personally like Grossman a tad bit more right now, but Beck has made a believer in me. I won't be disappointed either way. I felt throughout the offseason that the whole Beck thing was all about making Grossman understand he's not going to get a frachise QB-sized contract and that we would move on without him. I never really believed Beck had a legitimate chance to take this job, though I acknowledged the possibility and certainly wasn't against it if Shanny liked him. Just thought that it was always more about Grossman than Beck. Now, I'm not so sure anymore. Maybe ASF is right and Shanny has done a total Jedi Mind Trick on me, but I believe Beck can be a good QB for us. The only question is, can he be a great one?

[tiger187126]

No, I'm referring to the many ESers who are convinced Beck is really Mike's guy just because they read it in here.

I don't agree with everything ASF says, but i've loved his thread for years because he's an out of the box thinker who doesn't just believe what he's told.

i think people might believe that beck is Mike's guy because of the 10000 times he's said that he's his guy.

that might be a little outside the box for you. some people read more than what's written on this forum.

---------- Post added August-28th-2011 at 10:37 PM ----------

ASF's threads (especially the last few about our QB situation) are like the National Enquirer to me. Extremely entertaining, crazy, but well written... and chock full of bull**** though many truths are presented.

without getting political it's kind of like watching glenn beck. you start off with some solid facts and before you know it, you're way in left field.

[GSF]

i think people might believe that beck is Mike's guy because of the 10000 times he's said that he's his guy.

Really? Then why hasn't named Beck the starter yet?

[tiger187126]

i think people might believe that beck is Mike's guy because of the 10000 times he's said that he's his guy.

[/color=Gold]

Really? Then why hasn't named Beck the starter yet?

not my point. my point was saying that people just take what they read on here as gospel is kind of short sighted, especially when the HC and OC have gone out of their way to publicly praise a guy to no end.

listen man, believe all the conspiracy theories you want. aliens might get the final say in all of this.

oooo...aaaahhhhh

in reality mike is just ****ing around with the giants. he treats his decisions just like bellicheck because he believes that one sliver of doubt you can put in an opponents mind could be the tipping point for a victory.

why do you think he hasn't named a starter?

[GSF]

to motivate his QBs to compete obviously. Keeping the Giants guessing is a big bonus.